A Gleissberg Solar Minimum?

Greg Goodman says:
August 14, 2014 at 10:51 am
Still looks right now as if we’re on track to exceed 2013 minimum extent in at least one source, & might even equal 2006.

vuk says:
August 14, 2014 at 11:29 am
I am prepared to answer questions on my article, you ask the NASA’s Dr. Tony Phillips about his.
He is not making the false statement that Themis contradicts my earlier finding. You are making that statement. So it is up to you to admit that you just made that up. You see, there is no paper showing this. And the data contradicts your claim.

“Another group has a paper in print in 2013 based on 2008 data from the five THEMIS spacecraft in conjunction with three of NOAA’s GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites) spacecraft, and the ESA/NASA Cluster mission. Led by Michael Hartinger at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor, this group compared observations at the bow shock where the supersonic solar wind brakes to flow around the magnetosphere to what happens inside the magnetosphere. They found that instabilities drive perturbations in the solar wind particles streaming towards the bow shock and that these perturbations can be correlated with another type of magnetized wave – ULF (ultra low frequency) waves – inside the magnetosphere. ULF waves, in turn, are thought to be important for changes in the radiation belts.
“The interesting thing about this paper is that it shows how the magnetosphere actually gets quite a bit of energy from the solar wind, even by seemingly innocuous rotations in the magnetic field,” says Angelopoulos. “People hadn’t realized that you could get waves from these types of events, but there was a one-to-one correspondence. One THEMIS spacecraft saw an instability at the bow shock and another THEMIS spacecraft then saw the waves closer to Earth.”
Since all the various waves in the magnetosphere are what can impart energy to the particles surrounding Earth, knowing just what causes each kind of wave is yet another important part of the space weather puzzle.”
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/themis/news/six-years.html#.U-0Nn1V_sup

“We call them X-points or electron diffusion regions,” explains plasma physicist Jack Scudder of the University of Iowa. “They’re places where the magnetic field of Earth connects to the magnetic field of the Sun, creating an uninterrupted path leading from our own planet to the sun’s atmosphere 93 million miles away.”
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/news/mag-portals.html#.U-0RilV_sup

ren says:
August 14, 2014 at 12:47 pm
“We call them X-points or electron diffusion regions,” explains plasma physicist Jack Scudder of the University of Iowa. “They’re places where the magnetic field of Earth connects to the magnetic field of the Sun, creating an uninterrupted path leading from our own planet to the sun’s atmosphere 93 million miles away.”
Just confirming what has been surmised for decades.

vukcevic says:
August 14, 2014 at 1:10 pm
I could not find such a quote, it is not my claim, as you apparently purported
You should search this thread
vuk says:
August 12, 2014 at 3:52 am
Then NASA adds their recent discovery:
Solar coronal mass ejections CMEs in the even-numbered solar cycles tend to hit Earth with a leading edge that is magnetized north.
vuk says:
August 12, 2014 at 1:37 pm
!977 was a very, very long time ago, many new things have been discovered since, now there are 5 Themis satellites mapping solar-magnetosphere interactions.
vuk says:
August 13, 2014 at 12:03 am
Your theoretical treatise from 1977, may have been at the time, the corner stone of understanding, then at the end of 2008 NASA’s Themis project comes with the series of observational data that contradict conclusions of your work
vuk says:
August 13, 2014 at 11:40 am
NASA says there is the observational evidence as shown in their video presentation
vukc says:
August 14, 2014 at 8:42 am
Its implications can be viewed in the light of the NASA’s Themis satellite discovery, as contained in the key statement: ”For reasons not fully understood, CMEs in even-numbered solar cycles (like 24) tend to hit Earth with a leading edge that is magnetized north. Such a CME should open a breach and load the magnetosphere with plasma just before the storm gets underway..”
vuk says:
August 14, 2014 at 11:29 am
NASA official statement in full regarding their observations: can be found here:
http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2008/16dec_giantbreach/
Author of the article is Dr. Tony Phillips
It contradicts your contradiction: “I think there is no such ‘discovery’. If it were, geomagnetic activity would be different from what is observed, so the data is in direct contradiction to what is claimed. “
vuk says:
August 14, 2014 at 11:29 am
<I have not relied on, or even mentioned the NASA’s discovery, but as it happens the analysis of geomagnetic datafrom Jackson & Bloxham is in full agreement with the NASA’s discovery.
That makes it your claim. But as I showed it is not supported by the data http://www.leif.org/research/Even-Odd-Dst.png , so can safely be ignored and put away [as your so-called paper can]. What you need to do is to admit that you have been fooled [again] by your zealous application of confirmation bias.

richard verney says:
August 11, 2014 at 9:07 pm
I do not disagree with what you said, but you completely ignored Dr Deanster’s question
I didn’t see a question mark in his comment. What question do you see?
Leif Says:
Should there be no warming, or indeed should there be some cooling, over the course of the next 15 to 20 years, and if the solar cycle(s) exhibit a low sunspot count, do you rule out that the sun may have played a role in the continuance of the pause
A low sunspot count should make a difference of something like 0.05C from that alone. I doubt that we can even measure that.
———————————————————-
The point I was getting at Leif, is that the equation that determins the amount of radiation reaching the surface is not just dependent upon TSI, but on a host of factors. TSI seems to be only relevant at the TOA. IF the sun in some way influences other atmosphereic processes, clouds, ocean currents, ozone characteristics, etc that influence the actual amount of TSI that would reach the surface, then it would seem to me that TSI would be a poor proxy to use for solar variation.
I”ve seen no research that conclusively excludes solar impacts on the other processes. Thus, the equation of S(1-a) is incomplete, as “a” itslef may contain some solar influences that are separate from variation in TSI. As I said, if aa index is a factor in some other process, like ocean currents, or cloud formation, then the conclusion that all solar variation is tied up in the TSI is incomplete, as “a” itself would be influenced by solar.

Leif Svalgaard says: August 14, 2014 at 12:54 pm
assigning a sign to the sunspot number that is opposite for the even and odd cycles. Thar alone creates a false 22-yr cycle even if all cycles were exactly alike. There is no 22-yr cycle in solar activity.
Not exactly a quote.
Each hemisphere has 22 year sunspot magnetic cycle, open fluxes of opposite polarities, separated by the HCS and do not cancel out.
Direction of the magnetic vector in the northern hemisphere coincides with the direction of solar rotation during even-numbered cycles, B>0, while in the southern hemisphere B<0.
Relationship between direction of rotation and direction of the magnetic vector B is reversed
during odd-numbered cycles, hence 22 year magnetic cycle in each hemisphere.
No, cycles are not exactly alike
The long term the Earth’s core generated magnetic field is of a long term (thousands of years) of a fixed polarity, but as shown by authors quoted in the article, it has a variable ripple. This was converted into LOD by process described by the authors of the data, and quoted ad verbatim in the article.
Further on, it is shown that filtered remainder of the LOD has following property:
– periodic oscillation with period of ~ 22 years, spectrum is on page 7, and on page 6
– LOD increases (rotation slows down) are coincidental with even cycles
– LOD decreases (rotation speeds up) are coincidental with odd cycles
( the article’s title is ‘Length of day (LOD) coincidental correlation with solar activity’)
As an increase is normally associated with positive and a decrease with negative sign, the corresponding sunspot cycles are also assigned corresponding polarity.

Vuk. I quoted your words. Are you saying those were not your words in the comment up thread? Is someone else typing under your name? I don’t give a pattuty about your article. We aren’t talking about your article. Either back up your own words from up stream or say you were wrong/spoke without thinking.

Oooo Leif. For many here them’s fightin words! From all the reconstructions I have been able to find, there were a series of sudden cold events with warming in-between. The one mechanism that fits are the catastrophic series of sulfur laden stratospheric volcanic explosions that pepper that span of time. In my studies I learned that a VEI number in the high end does not necessarily mean a global event. There are volcanic explosions that are huge, but do not have a high sulfur content. There are other volcanic explosions that expel a tremendous amount of material but little of it gets into the stratosphere or stays very long. There are also explosions that are huge but because of their location, do not cause global [effects]. And finally there are yet still others that disrupt ENSO processes to the extent that as the local [effects] travel through the grand ocean highway, they affect local climates in a staggered fashion.
Taken all together, this is a subject I enjoy in the ring and love the fight!
[And your affections clearly have their intended effect. 8<) .mod]