A Gleissberg Solar Minimum?

moreCarbonOK[&theWeatherisalwaysGood]HenryP said on August 15, 2014 at 12:05 pm:

@all
is there anyone on this blog now who actually denies that it is globally cooling?

They requested 15 years for proof global warming had stopped, then extended to 17. We should wait at least 15 years to declare global cooling, perhaps 17, unless it clearly and undeniably becomes statistically significant before then with no sign of turning back.
And since the lack of significant warming and the recent cooling coincides with the negative phase of the ~60yr PDO pseudo-cycle, and the AMO just flipped, it seems more likely we will see warming again when the natural cycles line up again than it does that we are entering a new little ice age. Much more likely.

2004
http://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/docs/00/00/19/81/PDF/solar_synchronisation.pdf

Synchronising effect of planetary resonance
M. A. Vukcevic, M.Sc
This article investigates and demonstrates the combined effect from two major planets at the centre of the Solar system. Gravitational and magnetic effects are considered as possible sources of solar activity synchronisation.

2004
http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2004astro.ph..1107V

Evidence of a multi resonant system within solar periodic activity
Vukcevic, M. A.
eprint arXiv:astro-ph/0401107
To demonstrate a degree of correlation between periodicity in the solar activity and a multi-resonant system three examples are considered. Although only two base frequencies were employed a relatively close correlation was obtained for periodicity, amplitude’s envelope and some well-known longer-term anomalies, by using a simple mathematical formula.

Go to Ver 2: http://arxiv.org/abs/astro-ph/0401107v2
http://arxiv.org/pdf/astro-ph/0401107v2.pdf
2007
http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/docs/00/28/98/80/PDF/Hypothesis.pdf
PDF is damaged, won’t display.
HTML version (bad graphs)
http://scholar.googleusercontent.com/scholar?q=cache:lnHqMCmmEGoJ:scholar.google.com/+m+vukcevic+solar&hl=en&as_sdt=1,39

M. A. Vukcevic
( 01/09/2007 )
An alternative view of the solar periodicity
‘the nature is adverse to a coincidence, it is ruled by a cause and the consequence’
The solar periodic activity is due to a feedback from the energy transfer between the heliospheric magnetic flux and the planetary magnetospheres

2009
http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/docs/00/40/88/86/PDF/NATA.pdf

North Atlantic Temperature Anomaly
M.A. Vukcevic M.Sc. 2009
Abstract: The author postulates the existence of a high correlation between North Atlantic Temperature Anomaly and the variations of magnetic field over the Hudson Bay region. Post-glacial uplift and convection in the underlying mantle uplift (as reflected in changes of the area’s magnetic intensity) are making significant contribution to the Atlantic basin climate change.

2012
http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/docs/00/72/81/45/PDF/GEO-SOLAR-oscillations.pdf

Role of Natural Cycles in the Global Climate Change
M.A. Vukcevic MSc
September 2012
PART ONE
ABSTRACT
It is postulated that the decadal temperature variability in the North Hemisphere can be reconstructed relatively accurately by amplification of the solar magnetic cycle (Hale cycle) by natural oscillations emanating from the liquid part of the Earth’s core, as detected in the secular changes of the Earth’s magnetic field. In this part of the of the study only circumstantial evidence will be considered, while no physical mechanism, although it is hinted at on number of occasions, will be subject of part two.

There are also papers found by M. Vukcevic, first name Miroslava or Mira, affiliation Military Academy, University of Defense, Siberia. While of similar material (plasma, cosmic rays, astrophysics) there are enough differences, like the missing initial, to think that is someone else. Perhaps Vuk’s kid?

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/07/05/study-solar-activity-lull-increases-chances-of-cold-uk-winters/
This is Professor Lockwood’s take on solar variability and how it may effect the climate for some parts of the globe. He subscribes to three of my beliefs which are the sun has variability ,it was much less active during the Maunder Minimum and it did indeed effect the climate if not global at least regional.
I would say in the balance of things his thinking is more or less the same as mine. Not exactly but pretty close.
Again I think an interview with him over this web-site would generate keen interest. I would look forward to this if it should take place.

Leif Svalgaard says:
It would seem that any real effect on LOD by atmosphere extent would be minimal similar to the delta TSI of 0.1 degree you often quote.
“Atmospheric Angular Momentum Fluctuations, Length-of-Day Changes and Polar Motion”
R. T. H. Barnes, R. Hide, A. A. White and C. A. Wilson

From Jim G on August 16, 2014 at 8:02 am:

I am sure you did not mean this as it came across. LOD is dependent upon the rotation rate of the earth, las time I checked, which is quite consistent over human lengths of time. Did you mean LOD effects?

There are frequent and regular changes, just fractions of milliseconds. It all normally goes back to conservation of angular momentum.
Think of the classic example of the ice skater turning at one speed with limbs extending outward, then they draw their limbs inward and speed up. Same thing normally. When the atmosphere puffs outward the rotational speed of Earth slows slightly, increasing LOD, although the angular momentum stays the same.
Although there are other things affecting LOD. A small one to mention is Earth keeps gaining mass, assorted interplanetary dust and such, causing a gradual slowdown. I mention it because it’s not listed in this authoritative source, likely because it’s not a variation.
http://www.iers.org/nn_10398/IERS/EN/Science/EarthRotation/UT1LOD.html

Universal time and length of day are subject to variations due to the zonal tides (smaller than 2.5 ms in absolute value), to oceanic tides (smaller than 0.03 ms in absolute value), to atmospheric circulation, to internal effects and to transfer of angular momentum to the Moon orbital motion.
The variations in LOD can be split into several components, according to their causes. The total variation is shown in the upper part of the figure, without oscillations induced by the tides of the solid Earth and oceans, are shown separately for the long and short periods. The dynamical influence of the liquid core of the earth and climatic variations in the atmosphere account for slow variations (trend in the upper part of the figure). The rest of the atmospheric excitation can be split into a seasonal oscillation and residual oscillation, which includes 50-day oscillations as well as large anomalies like the one associated with the 1983 El Niño event. Yearly values of LOD since 1623 are available.

There are also sudden changes. Earthquakes can change the shape of the Earth. Often you’ll see the LOD shorten, as the core is cooling thus the globe wants to shrink.
The important things to note, are LOD does change, and for many reasons, see the “variations in LOD” link above. To take such a noisy overlapping of many signals and events, point and say “Ah-ha! There’s the solar signal I knew was there!”, is nonsense.