In the past week both the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) scaled back forecasts for a big El Niño warming event in 2014.
![anomnight.8.7.2014[1]](https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/08/anomnight-8-7-20141.gif)
![figure4[1]](https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/08/figure41.gif)
Source: http://iri.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/figure4.gif
Meanwhile, NOAA has announced that the probability of an El Nino Pacific Ocean warming event taking place this year has dropped significantly, saying:
“The chance of El Nino has decreased to about 65% during the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter,”
Last week BoM changed its El Niño status from “El Niño Alert” to “El Niño Watch”, saying:
“While the chance of an El Niño in 2014 has clearly eased, warmer-than-average waters persist in parts of the tropical Pacific, and the (slight) majority of climate models suggest El Niño remains likely for spring. Hence the establishment of El Niño before year’s end cannot be ruled out. If an El Niño were to occur, it is increasingly unlikely to be a strong event.
This means the chance of El Nino developing in 2014 is approximately 50%, which remains significant at double the normal likelihood of an event,”
Earlier this year, sea surface temperature appeared on the rise, and there was hope in the warmist community that this would help 2014 become a record warm year. For example, the paid Center for American Progress mouthpiece Joe Romm squawked:
Is A Super El Niño Coming That Will Shatter Extreme Weather And Global Temperature Records?
He cited this model forecast:
![CFS21-638x564[1]](https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/08/cfs21-638x5641.jpg?quality=83)
Uh, no. That hopes seems faded now.
Niño 3.4 Region Sea Surface Temperature Index – July 2006 to Present
Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) – Click the pic to view at source
El Niño related SST’s from earlier this year have now returned to near normal, and NOAA says: “the lack of a coherent atmospheric El Nino pattern, and a return to near-average SSTs in the central Pacific, indicate ENSO-neutral”.
Niño 3.4 Region Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly – 2000 to Present
NOAA – National Climate Data Center – Click the pic to view at source
Here is the NOAA ENSO discussion published today:
===============================================================
EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
7 August 2014
ENSO Alert System Status: El Nino Watch
Synopsis: The chance of El Nino has decreased to about 65% during the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter.
During July 2014, above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) continued in the far eastern equatorial Pacific, but near average SSTs prevailed in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1). Most of the Nino indices decreased toward the end of the month with values of +0.3°C in Nino-4, -0.1°C in Nino-3.4, +0.2°C in Nino-3, and +0.6°C in Nino-1+2 (Fig. 2). Subsurface heat content anomalies (averaged between 180º-100ºW) continued to decrease and are slightly below average (Fig. 3). The above-average subsurface temperatures that were observed near the surface during June (down to 100m depth) are now limited to a thin layer in the top 50m, underlain by mainly below-average temperatures (Fig. 4). The low-level winds over the tropical Pacific remained near average during July, but westerly wind anomalies appeared in the central and eastern part of the basin toward the end of the month. Upper-level winds remained generally near average and convection was enhanced mainly just north of the equator in the western Pacific (Fig. 5). The lack of a coherent atmospheric El Nino pattern, and a return to near-average SSTs in the central Pacific, indicate ENSO-neutral.
Over the last month, model forecasts have slightly delayed the El Nino onset, with most models now indicating the onset during July-September, with the event continuing into early 2015 (Fig. 6). A strong El Nino is not favored in any of the ensemble averages, and slightly more models call for a weak event rather than a moderate event. At this time, the consensus of forecasters expects El Nino to emerge during August-October and to peak at weak strength during the late fall and early winter (3-month values of the Nino-3.4 index between 0.5°C and 0.9°C). The chance of El Nino has decreased to about 65% during the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome).
This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Nino/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum of CPC’s Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 4 September 2014. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.
Climate Prediction Center
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
NOAA/National Weather Service
College Park, MD 20740
End of diagnostic discussions
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I’ve noticed that the Atlantic Ocean is showing a La Nina like pattern. I haven’t looked at that area previously. Is this unusual? Does it have any predictive capability?
Disagree There is going to be an el nino. The SOI is where it was in 1986 and 2009. The MEI is right on top of 2002, one of our analog years. The reason it is called an el nino is because of it likes to rev up in the fall. But the event will be along the lines Joe D Aleo and I have said since Spring it would be.. no super nino. This is exactly as we painted it.
The latest ECWMF is in and continues to support our contention of a late to start “reactionary” enso event as in the cold pdo years? This is a term I coined, based on Joe’s writings of the short nature of the Cold PDO ensos.. where you have a sudden spike in the pdo and mei warm. and the enso event . Its simply the nature of the beast.. just like you get short lived la ninas in the warm pdo years.
Please notice a very important point.. THE WATER IS NOW COOLING AROUND AUSTRALIA SUPPORTING THE HIGHER PRESSURE NEEDED TO LINK THE SOI! We just had a major burst and another is coming out
BTW the ECMWF 500 mb pattern for the winter looks like the way Joe and I believe this is going. I am sure that speculation will start now that others seeing it, will run to the model. Please remember our winter ideas have been out since spring, based on how we felt this overall pattern was running, the seeds of which were planted with some ideas I put out there in Sept 11 on video.. in my previous life ( ha ha)
So we will see. I believe our side of the AGW is crowing much too early about this, given the physical realities we have pointed out, just like the other side and their super nino hype needed to be debunked since their agenda was wishcasting the other, like they have with every other enso event since their idol, 1997-1998 showed up
Thou shall not worship false idols
I was hoping there would be an El Nino. It might’ve nipped a polar-vortex-dominated winter in the bud here in the US east. If not, seems likely a repeat of last winter.
Earlier this year, sea surface temperature appeared on the rise, and there was hope in the warmist community that this would help 2014 become a record warm year. For example, the paid Center for American Progress mouthpiece Joe Romm squawked:
Okay so they wanted the big temperature rise. Would only the skeptics not see that ENSO is the cause and how is a rise in CO2 driving ENSO???
If the weatherman told me there was a 50% chance of rain in the next 6 months, I would switch channel.
From what I’ve seen, the farmers etc. who follow the current models have a tendency to do worse at anticipating than the farmers who follow their own knowledge and understanding of things.
I haven’t met a farmer yet who puts much stock in the GCM’s. At least not small, non-corporate concerns – you know, the type who actually have to make a living on next year’s crop.
ehhhh
I told you so, did I not? It is getting cooler.
What ‘model’ other than my own could possibly be correct?
I threw the dice three times and every time it said we are globally cooling.
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/files/2013/02/henryspooltableNEWc.pdf
Such co-incidents do not exist. Probability theory simply confirms that earth must be cooling down now.
btw
I changed my screen name to accurately reflect the results of all my investigations.
Agree with Joe. A few days out it’s looking pretty fragmented and messy. Just the sort of thing that could tip the balance IMHO.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/08/12/1200Z/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/overlay=mean_sea_level_pressure/orthographic=-160,-12,466
F*ck’n Nature… Antarctic Ice insists on expanding, Arctic Ice rejects to melt, El Niño cancels its previously guaranteed comeback… This is clearly a problem of communication, as Nature is not listening. I recommend to have 3 or 4 international conferences to better explain fellow alarmists how they should talk so that Nature starts to behave properly in agreement.
We live in an age with improving technology to observe, measure and record data, not just on a much larger scale but with much more accuracy.
There are still many situations when the interpretation of data is in the eye of the beholder but real time empirical data from the sun, oceans, atmosphere and other fields related to climate science is getting more and more weight with time and stuff like tree rings, previous ice ages/geological history, speculative theories, models output using theories and things based on the past will be getting less and less weight.
This applies to all realms…………….even in those where the majority, allow their deeply imbedded cognitive bias’s to reject it. This slows progress but only fresh data can shine the light of truth on authentic science.
Nylo says
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/08/07/el-nino-is-just-not-paying-attention-to-climate-models-looks-like-a-bust/#comment-1704699
that’s funny
henry says
except that nature is doing exactly what God programmed it to be doing
It seems we are cooling from the top lat.s down
http://oi40.tinypic.com/2ql5zq8.jpg
Mosher-
What do you bring if the weatherman tells you there is a 50% chance of El Nino?
This morning the local weather (Toronto) forecaster warned us of a potential “September Vortex”, I think it means early winter. This follows our “Summer Vortex” which meant early fall, and our “Polar Vortex” which meant late spring. Before this year we suffered no “Votex’s”of any kind, and now we are getting three in a row, has Al Gore moved to Canada?
mosher
In the end what you think doesnt matter. what matters is the long term performance of those who take the advice versus those who dont.
henry says
when are you ever going to start measuring things using the correct balancing technigue?
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2013/02/21/henrys-pool-tables-on-global-warmingcooling/
and then you agree with me that we are globally cooling?
sinewave says:
“What do you bring if the weatherman tells you there is a 50% chance of El Nino?”
………………..Your fishing boat (:
http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2014/apr/15/outdoors-el-nino-fishing-san-diego/
Interesting site for “Friends of Lake Powell”
http://www.lakepowell.org/page_two/what_s_new/what_s_new.html
In it is a 10 year water level chart and a Dec. 3, 2013 Snow Cover map on the drainage basins for lake Powell. It would be interesting to find the source for that map.
Here is a photo of Lake Mead (Hoover Dam) on July 14, 2014. at record low water.
http://i.huffpost.com/gadgets/slideshows/358700/slide_358700_3987035_free.jpg
Here is a link to dynamic map of the Colorado River System showing locations of Dams, Water Flows, tunnels, agriculture diversions.
http://www.savethecolorado.org/map.php
(Source appears to be National Geographic)
The topmost map of the SST anomaly — it must run hot by force, because sea areas which are normally ice-covered are depicted as running hot, and ice areas which are normally open water are depicted as white ice-covered and so removed from the display. That’s anti-normalized. Do they calculate global SST anomaly that way too — it would run hot by force.
moreCarbonOK[&theWeatherisalwaysGood]HenryPon August 8, 2014 at 8:17 am
ehhhh
I told you so, did I not? It is getting cooler.
What ‘model’ other than my own could possibly be correct?
I threw the dice three times and every time it said we are globally cooling.
Ha ha very funny. The only thing that would be dumber than your parody post would be if some retarded jerk were to claim – with a straight face even – that the climate is still warming.
BTW what is WUWT mod policy on deliberate imitation of another poster trying to discredit them?
@phlogiston
Perhaps you want to share with us why you think the earth is cooling and why?
Regarding California’s water shortages and no El Ninio:
Please tell me again how many Damns and reservoirs were destroyed? The Greenie naboobs told everyone they were un-necessary after all. Another idiotic claim by the Druidic cults of the WWF, and the Sierra Club lunatics.
Hoist on their own Petard? No. Others minions will suffer while these Leftiy, affluent, elites lounge in their swimming pools. Conservation by shortage, is for the other guy.
Oh well less showers a day or share a bath, the least dirtiest goes in first. That’s what we had to do in Currabubula, (20 miles south of Tamworth, NSW) that didn’t have any mains water, only rain water tanks.
Regarding the “hope in the warmist community”, DD More (http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/08/07/el-nino-is-just-not-paying-attention-to-climate-models-looks-like-a-bust/#comment-1704554) says:
“… Okay so they wanted the big temperature rise. Would only the skeptics not see that ENSO is the cause and how is a rise in CO2 driving ENSO???”
The CO2 causes global warming and the global warming is driving ENSO variability. I know this because I got it from Wikipedia, specifically in an edit by one Wiki.isya, who showed up on 12/28-29/2009, made two edits to the El Niño article and was never heard from again:
http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=El_Ni%C3%B1o&diff=next&oldid=334145137
Wiki.isya’s opinion that “recent El Niño variation is most likely linked to the global warming,” is supported by links to a paper that says of the variations that, “The possibility that global warming is affecting those variations cannot be excluded,” and another paper that says, “Observations show that the tropical El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability, after removing both the long term trend and decadal change of the background climate, has been enhanced by as much as 60% during the past 50 years.” Those quotes are from the article abstracts, perhaps in that second article the paper itself says by how small a percentage the variability may have been enhanced in the past 50 years. [emphases all mine -R]
You see, it doesn’t much matter what the science actually demonstrates about an hypothesis, what counts is that an article was published that alludes to the hypothesis in a friendly way.
But if it’s good enough for Wikipedia it should be good enough for us non-experts, right?
Yet cucu Kaku was just on the TV ranting about how the strong El Nino this year was causing all the problems due, of course, to climate change… Never mind that there isn’t an El Nino…
MoreCarbonOKetcHenryP says:
August 9, 2014 at 5:26 am
@phlogiston
Perhaps you want to share with us why you think the earth is cooling and why?
Just now it seems to be neither warming nor cooling.
No-one knows why climate changes on any timescale – why and when and interglacials occur, why there was the MWP, LIA etc. See rgbatduke’s posts about the full extent of our ignorance of climate.
Climate science is thus like chemistry before the periodic table or physics before Newton or biology before Darwin. CO2 is the imaginary “phlogiston”.
phlogiston says
Just now it seems to be neither warming nor cooling.
henry says
that it just plain wrong. That was one [luke] warmist’s idea to keep the money rolling [into his pocket]
Clearly it is either cooling or warming. There is no pause. I have proven this scientifically from my tables. All three of my data sets show that we started cooling just before the new millennium.
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/files/2013/02/henryspooltableNEWc.pdf
If you want to duplicate my experiment [in case you do not trust me ]
please be my guest.
My sampling technique is described here:
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2013/02/21/henrys-pool-tables-on-global-warmingcooling/
Note the last graph below the third table. IF there were any warming due to more GHG it should show by rising minimum temperatures and more chaos i.e. Rsquare<1. However, I find there is 100% correlation for the deceleration of minima. That means that I can tell you exactly what the rate of global warming and cooling was in K/annum, [for minimum temperatures], at any point during the past 40 years. So AGW must be 0.000K/annum?
So I fixed that problem. There is no AGW.
My bet is that in history AGW will go down as a scientific erroneous theory, just like the Phlogiston theory.