A new record: low maximum temperature beats the old one by 15 degrees!
From the NWS in Las Vegas:
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1000 AM PDT MON AUG 4 2014
...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE BROKEN IN DEATH VALLEY YESTERDAY...
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE IN DEATH VALLEY REACHED 89 DEGREES YESTERDAY
AUGUST 3. THIS BROKE THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 104 DEGREES SET IN 1945.
THIS WAS ALSO ONLY THE 7TH TIME SINCE 1911 THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
AUGUST REMAINED IN THE 80S.
THE ABOVE INFORMATION IS PRELIMINARY AND IS SUBJECT TO A FINAL
REVIEW AND CERTIFICATION BY THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER.
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I have an inkling how it feels to be an Alarmist these days, for I made a forecast for the next thirty years back in the mid-1980’s that hasn’t panned out. Somehow, even before the AMO and PDO were talked about, I had tuned into the idea of a 60-year-cycle, and was convinced the period 1990-2020 would be like 1930-1960. With smug assurance I predicted another Dust-bowl, and a whole slew of east coast hurricanes. We are now 24 years into my prediction, and unless the next six years are totally wild my grade will be an “F”.
O well. Back to the drawing board.
The two main differences between me and modern Alarmists is that, first, I didn’t have billions of dollars to spend screwing up a functioning society, and second, I didn’t have anything to lose by admitting I was wrong.
I didn’t like being wrong, but confess it did teach me a lot. In fact I’d advise young people to make forecasts just to learn as I have learned. (Also it makes you appreciate the better weathermen.) If you don’t make a forecast you don’t notice changes that you notice if you are expecting something different. You get focused-in on things that otherwise would escape your notice.
For example, to have cool air settling down into the middle of the USA all summer is utterly unlike the Dust Bowl of the 1930’s or the mini-Dust-Bowl of the 1950’s. It grabbed my focus, and has me wondering things about the “Quiet Sun” and the possibility of another “Mini-Ice-Age.”
I don’t see modern Alarmists even considering such possibilities. They are far too busy defending to even consider the possibility they might be wrong. I have the sense that they had better wake up, and wake up soon, or reality is going to reach out with crocodile jaws and bite them.
This is wild – visit http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/vef/climate/DeathValleyClimateBook/index.php and click on “History Of Weather Observations” to get to http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/vef/climate/DeathValleyClimateBook/History%20of%20Weather%20Observations.pdf
A small piece of a long tale of woe:
It hasn’t been updated to mention the USCRN site, but there’s a good chance the NWS data comes from a 0700 reading made Monday AM at the old Cotton Region shelter.
Check out http://wattsupwiththat.com/?s=death+valley for the full list of Death Valley posts at WUWT. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/06/30/it-seems-noaa-has-de-modernized-the-official-death-valley-station-to-use-older-equipment-to-make-a-record-more-likely/ deserves special attention.
We also have seen the coolest weather in a long time, the local news said we just went through the coolest July in nearly 50 years (a couple of days didn’t even break 70).
However, the high pressure dome that sets up south of here over Texas and brings us temps. in the 90’s and 100’s has finally managed to set itself up for good (which means strings of 90’s). My parents have told me before that if we haven’t seen a lot of 100’s so far, it’s nearly a safe bet we’ll see a string of them when school starts. Back in the cool year of 2008 for instance we made it all the way to the end of July without 100’s, but we then got a nice batch in August,
We also had a fairly cool latter half of July last year, but it made up for it by staying fairly warm until October (and with it an unusually late end to tomato picking).
It’s interesting to see Death Valley actually having tolerable temperatures in mid-summer, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it gets hot again, it’d be almost unheard of I imagine if it didn’t.
Two notes:
1) This might be a duplicate post, the first one disappeared. I’m glad I can edit comments in an external editor!
2) While I was writing this Anthony was noting that the CRN station is not the source of the data for the NWS record, this poost is more in line with good ol’ Cotton Region Shelter fun and games.
This is wild – visit http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/vef/climate/DeathValleyClimateBook/index.php and click on “History Of Weather Observations” to get to http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/vef/climate/DeathValleyClimateBook/History%20of%20Weather%20Observations.pdf
A small piece of a long tale of woe:
It hasn’t been updated to mention the USCRN site, but there’s a good chance the NWS data comes from a 0700 reading made Monday AM at the old Cotton Region shelter.
Check out http://wattsupwiththat.com/?s=death+valley for the full list of Death Valley posts at WUWT. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/06/30/it-seems-noaa-has-de-modernized-the-official-death-valley-station-to-use-older-equipment-to-make-a-record-more-likely/ deserves special attention.
Anthony and mods – I posted a second comment (twice) that has either evaporated or wound up in the spam bin. Not sure what WP found tasty about it….
The cold front that came through last night was unusually strong for this early in the season. I think we could properly label it an early autumn dry cold front.
Mike Jonas says:
“Could the US temperatures also be associated with the weather systems (in the Death Valley case, clouds) coming across at a different latitude to usual?”
Very astute observations. I wondered the same thing over the last week, watching the model guidance on this pattern but only from the Southwest US to the Midwest. The Cornbelt is in need of rain after a very cool but dry July.
Not having tracked things upstream across the Pacific recently, I can’t say for certain but there is a decent jet stream that may have origins as you suggest and certainly has been much stronger than usual for this time of year arriving in the Southwest US with numerous waves/energy.
This is the latest 200 mb chart from the NAM model. Blue shaded areas are the highest winds. The blue band aimed at the US Southwest is a jet streak/max associated with a subtropical jet coming out of the Pacific.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_epac_000_200_wnd_ht.gif&model=nam&area=epac&storm=&cycle=00¶m=200_wnd_ht&fhr=000&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140805+00+UTC&ps=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0
These waves will travel northeast, topping an upper level ridge in the US Rockies, then emerge in the Plains and Western Cornbelt, where they will cause copious rains as they track east/ southeast across the rest of the country.
This is the expected 5 day rainfall totals:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif
Ric Werme says:
August 4, 2014 at 6:41 pm
Can we deduce that it was cloudy that day? Higher RH and slight precipitation. Insolation again wins the day.
I bet they can’t name one “extensive campaign” — let alone a campaign involving a PR firm. For a list of 20-plus things that would be happening (but aren’t) if climate contrarians were actually well-organized and well-funded, see my WUWT guest-thread, “Notes from Skull Island” at
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/12/16/notes-from-skull-island-why-skeptics-arent-well-funded-and-well-organized/
No PR firm is needed to get a billboard campaign going, just an ad agency. And the material for a billboard campaign needs no expertise to devise–it’s already available. Here are a few of mine:
1.A flip-flopped hockey stick, looking like this /””, to reflect the current Plateau in the temperature trendline. The caption would be, “Who’s in Denial Now?”
The stick would be transparently overlaid on a graph of the running mean of GASTA (Global Average Surface Temperature Anomaly), averaged from five sources. Flipping over the hockey stick turns the tables on our opponents in a clever and memorable way.
2. Left-side text: “97%”
Right-side text: “WRONG”
Center graphic: the IPCC’s early-draft graphic of its four predictions vs. the observed Global Average Surface Temperature Anomaly (GASTA), showing its line near the bottom of the 95% confidence envelope of its projections. (There should be bold text: “95% confidence envelope.”)
3. Caption: “Chicken Little’s Inconvenient Goofs”
Four or six images with line graphs showing items Gore’s movie mis-predicted, such as:
Hurricanes / tornados
Polar Bear population
Sea ice
Drought / Flood
Climate refugees from threatened islands
Malaria
@Winston says:
August 4, 2014 at 3:29 pm
I’d be interested to know where you got the Sajak quotes. I’ve heard that he is a more, shall we say, rational being than your quotes would indicate.
@Winston says:
August 4, 2014 at 3:29 pm
I’m no special admirer of Sajak but below is a quote I found which would indicate that he is a bit more informed than one might suppose.
Quote here http://www.businessinsider.com/pat-sajak-global-warming-racist-tweets-2014-5:
““Wheel of Fortune” host Pat Sajak ignited a Twitter frenzy Tuesday when he tweeted this controversial statement to his nearly 53,000 followers:
I now believe global warming alarmists are unpatriotic racists knowingly misleading for their own ends. Good night.
— Pat Sajak (@patsajak) May 20, 2014
PS: 4. A chart of emissions of the developed vs. the developing world under two scenarios.
Caption: If it’s affordable, it’s ineffective; if it’s effective, it’s unaffordable.
===========
Four links.
Only 89 degrees in Death Valley.
Someone’s AC might get a bit of rest. How will they survive?
Caleb says:
August 4, 2014 at 7:11 pm
Caleb, I can identify with your comments, and really, had it not been for the intense debates that have been raging in Australia over many years as to the validity of the Inigo Jones long term weather predictions, and few other influences, I would have willingly adopted a similar likely outcome as the basis of a solid prediction.
The other influences were a close relationship with weathermen of the day and contact with farmers who dealt with the everyday effects of the weather that ruled their lives, the curse of predictions that failed to live up, the crops that were planted but lost because of the seemingly unpredictable changes that have dogged our climate in Australia, bountiful, disaster, fire, floods, drought. We lived by the grace of the climate and the impact of weather. and that was the easy part, what we were unprepared for was the age of computerisation that should have made weather prediction easier and more accurate.
What we were not prepared for was the rampant fudging of data, slight of hands bias and the competition for funding that corrupted rather than improved the process. Though, when one reads the 100 year History of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, (The Weather Watchers) several chapters depict the increasing apprehension of the professional meteorologists at the leaps of faith and wild predictions being promoted to leverage monies from politicians for faster, bigger, best, ie, huge computers versus the human experienced weather expert interpretation.
What we have seen is a verification of those early concerns, weather is now subject to political goals, massaged through the media for political effect. Perhaps we should thank Nature (weather and climate) for refusing the play the political games, is that the true Gore effect, weather and climate continuing to educate without bias and without computer fudging?
I believe those quotes were spoken sarcastically.
That is a record that actually scares me.
Just sayin.
rogerknights says:
August 4, 2014 at 8:44 pm
You may be right. I cannot tell for sure either way.
Pat – all that means is the PR Copmpanies have invested in a whole lot of preset promotional material based on using the Fear of Global Warming/Climate Change to drive their business and they can’t be bothered with Naysayers on the other side. It’s purely a business case and they see where the MONEY is. It’s just business. Heck, CBC (Canadian Broadcasting Corporation) used the same ploy to drive listeners to their site yesterday: Come listen to our program at 0:00CXM, on CO2 DRIVEN CLIMATE CHANGE, the most important issue for mankind today!!!!
Note, nots Syria, Lybia, Ukraine, ISIS, Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, Potential world wide spread of Ebola, Nations Economies crumbling, stock market crashing, unbelievable unemployment and poverty …
nope – a few molecules of CO2 bumping into each other are the most serious problem the world has today.
Wow. Have they gotten out of touch in those Ivory Towers. Time they were sold to the LOWEST bidder.
pat says:
August 4, 2014 at 4:35 pm
is WUWT denying “climate”??? the alarmist side is getting uglier by the minute:
4 July: Guardian: World’s top PR companies rule out working with climate deniers
Ten firms say they will not represent clients that deny man-made climate change or seek to block emisson-reducing regulations
Suzanne Goldenberg and Nishad Karim
Public relations firms have played a critical role over the years in framing the debate on climate change and its solutions – as well as the extensive disinformation campaigns launched to block those initiatives.
Now a number of the top 25 global PR firms have told the Guardian they will not represent clients who deny man-made climate change, or take campaigns seeking to block regulations limiting carbon pollution. Companies include WPP, Waggener Edstrom (WE) Worldwide, Weber Shandwick, Text100, and Finn Partners.
“We would not knowingly partner with a client who denies the existence of climate change,” said Rhian Rotz, spokesman for WE,,.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/aug/04/worlds-top-pr-companies-rule-out-working-with-climate-deniers
The Death Valley Coop reports a high of 114 F Aug 3.
High for the year was 126 F July 14.
“Interesting, almost the same scenario of our past three summers in Australia. Summers that were observationally cool to inhabitants, and rather comfortable considering our experience of past sizzling summers in the drought era years!”
Second that. Sydney was cool and wet last summer, almost never reaching 30. It had 2 hot days – a 40 and a 45, which was very unpleasant (for 8 hours till the tropical downpour).
Can’t say I was shocked to see “hottest evah” from BoM but personally I rated it “coldest evah.”
Perhaps somebody snuck out there and duct-taped an ice-cube to the thermometer. 🙂
Adam in KS summarized us on the Great Plains perfectly.
Us Texans *hate* that high-pressure bubble. I’ve more than once joked that we should cut a shipping channel the size of the Mississippi from Corpus to Uvalde to pop it.
pat says:
August 4, 2014 at 4:35 pm
is WUWT denying “climate”??? the alarmist side is getting uglier by the minute:
4 July: Guardian: World’s top PR companies rule out working with climate deniers
Ten firms say they will not represent clients that deny man-made climate change or seek to block emisson-reducing regulations
Suzanne Goldenberg and Nishad Karim
Public relations firms have played a critical role over the years in framing the debate on climate change and its solutions – as well as the extensive disinformation campaigns launched to block those initiatives.
PR firms like Saatchi provide the perfect type definition to “Spiv” and “Shyster”. They deal only in pure fraud and are incapable of relating to reality. Theirs is the industry of illusion. They would probably suffer an anaphylactic allergic reaction to honesty and truth that would make them puff up and discolour and probably due in a hugely entertaining manner.
It is thus totally fitting and appropriate that they should be completely in bed with the CAGW community and hostile towards climate realists, skeptics and honest climate scientists. We dont need criminals on our side but the CAGW side do. What is the PR industry for? Why hire someone like Max Clifford (number 1 UK PR publicist, supporter of global warming and convicted pedophile). Only to promote lies. The CAGW side need Max Cliffords but we do not.
That locale in Death Valley obviously needs some UHI enhancement. Parcel it out and call Century 21 Realty.
Couple of questions
One, is this record cool max temp a date record or month of August record like the rest of the world compare records?
If so how long has this site been recording data?
I suspect it is a date record which means it has little statistical significance if it were record cold or record warm and therefore jumping all over it as an example of cooling is pointless. Same goes if it were a warm record.
If using a month record for 100 data years then beating 3100 recordings is far more convincing than beating just 100 date records.