Summed in in one graph that says it all.
Roger Andrews writes:
If decarbonization is to be achieved by expanding renewables the expansion will have to come in wind, solar and biomass. So let’s take hydro out and see how far growth in wind, solar and biomass has carried us along the decarbonization path so far:
Clearly they still have a long way to go.
Source: http://euanmearns.com/renewable-energy-growth-in-perspective/
“””””…..Janice Moore says:
July 18, 2014 at 4:36 pm
Re: This bit of wishful thinking by Jake J(1:13pm): “…it took another decade for manufacturing scale economies to kick in.”:
There are NO known manufacturing efficiencies
TECHNICALLY POSSIBLE
to the farthest horizons of the most optimistic view
of the foreseeable future
which can bring solar meaningfully close
to supplying the world’s energy needs.
NONE…….””””””
Right on Janice.
The problem with solar PV is NOT cost. Gee, the US domestic suppliers are already whining that they can’t compete with the Chinese dumping prices. So if prices are already too low for domestic suppliers; how is it ever going to get economical.
Well the problem is technological’ not economical. You just don’t get much power from the sun.
So if Elon Musk is such a great Technocrat, with his rocket ships, and Tesla cars, and Solar City PVs, why doesn’t he get off the backs of the taxpayers, who subsidize his schemes. Oh yes it’s clever business; but taxpayers were never asked to go along for the ride. Well Silicon Valley is full of so-called entrepeneurs, who never can get their hands on enough taxpayer welfare to support their life style.
Jake J:
(Solar panels need to be wiped clean of dust regularly for best performance, I’ve read, and weeds in solar farms need to be cut back.)
—
This is easily solved Jake. We have a Government program called, “The Green Corps” here in Oz, who are young unemployed youth (no, not a green version of the Hitler youth, this is actually involuntary) who are required to work in ‘green’ projects, under the supervision of ‘volunteer’ private green organisations. “Conservation Volunteers Australia” is one of these many Government funded contractors.
And these organisations are paid by the State to provide supervision of these people in greenie projects. Thus any future greenie-coalition ‘government’ (if we could call it that ) just mandates these alleged ‘volunteers’ be tasked with wiping down the solar panels, and use brush cutters, to defoliate the excessive greenery … lol
Or else, no gruel for them!
No, I’m not joking, the youth ‘Green Corps’ actually exists:
https://employment.gov.au/green-corps
And they would indeed have to do this, at tax-payers expense. Just think of it as another Government subsidy to the green-energy ‘industry’, given these kids may/will never get a real job once and if coal-fired real power plants are shutdown.
PS: That Stepen Long ABC 4-Corners report video I slammed above is here, if any one wants to see it:
Streamed video and full transcript and references:
http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/stories/2014/07/07/4038488.htm
@Jake J
That much said, I’m not an evangelist about it. Until we have grid-scale storage, the non-dispatchable technologies can only be a supplement. And each of them have their negatives.
Energy policy makers will not and cannot understand that wind and solar are intermittent and supplemental (plus expensive and unreliable) energy sources. They are all AGW activists without scientific understanding.
Try to explain to them these issues with renewables and all they will hear is
bla bla bla moon landing faked
bla bla bla holocaust didn’t happen
bla bla bla area 51 cover-up
No, the only way out of this monstrous error will be when the green-washed population finally wakes up to the fact that their government has covered their countryside with expensive useless junk.
BP have stated there’s 53.3 years of the black stuff left if used only at this rate.
This is excluding the fact the worse stuff has a higher “carbon footprint” to process it into usable oils and gasses.
.
I also have an issue with this graph including biomass. Many homes are now fitted with wood stoves but not creating electricity with it. In fact most of the world cooks with wood.
.
Solar has been expensive and will stay so while the easy money is being thrown at it. The price to order and fit these for oneself and neighbours in a single order is so low as to wonder why people are not doing it.
.
Shock horror. I have an electric car. It does 5 miles per KWH on a run so no, it is not a Tesla hyper car. This has about 15KWH usable energy in the real world and the only reason I’ve done over 80 miles in a single run, was, because I can.
.
It takes over 6.5KWH to refine, per gallon and that number is increasing year on year. So I’m excluding the middle man who hates us and the nation need not build new power stations because of me. We all refine our oil at our respective nations.
.
As goes Lithium car batteries. Keep ’em cool, keep ’em middling and they will last you out. Get a smashed Leaf or similar. The Voltage is around 360 and so. Perfect for mains electricity at night. Solar panels are like 50c/watt now. The smashed cars inverter will give you three phase mains. Enjoy. Your kids will love you for the legacy you left them…. and they will need.
Wind farms? Are a load of……
http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/
GARBAGE!
@Unmentionable 7/20 at 10:22 pm
We have a Government program called, “The Green Corps” here in Oz, who are young unemployed youth (no, not a green version of the Hitler youth, this is actually involuntary) who are required to work in ‘green’ projects, under the supervision of ‘volunteer’ private green organisations. “Conservation Volunteers Australia” is one of these many Government funded contractors.
There is yet hope!
I cannot imagine a more healthy government program in the long run.
These youth are being given a simultaneous education in:
Slavery, Government Project Management, Green Graft, Green Economics, Green Physics, with as side order of Green Politics.
Are the minds of these youth going to wind up “Green Washed”?
Certainly some will. But many others so inoculated will be given life long immunity to Green BS.
Within the next decade, manufacturing scale economies will bring this down to $30,000.”
You completely made this up. You do not know the future.
McKinsey & Co. is the guilty party. They project $200/kWh by 2020.
I might add: I don’t think $200/kWh is anywhere close to cheap enough to compel broad aceeptance of EVs. I don’t know what the magic number is, but it’ll have to be a lot lower than that. I think there are some good reasons to want EVs to succeed, but the battery issue (cost and energy density) is a very big gating factor.
As for manufacturing economies, that’s long observed. As you scale up volume, cost per unit drops along a well-known curve. That’s not some “EVangelism” talking. It happens with products of all kids, everywhere.
I have an electric car. It does 5 miles per KWH on a run so no, it is not a Tesla hyper car.
The only way you’re getting 5 miles/kWh is if you’re “hypermiling” that car or perhaps using some battery we’ve never heard of. The E.P.A. tests EVs, and I’ve found their numbers to be pretty accurate. The average EV gets about 2.9 miles/kWh, which is a very long way from 5 miles/kWh.
To put it in different terms, you’re claiming 170 miles per gallon equivalent. The actual average for EVs is about 100 miles per gallon equivalent. Your posting is an example of the sort of “EVanglizing” that drives me, an EV owner but also a realist who’s completely data-centric, absolutely up the wall.
It happens with products of all kids, everywhere.
Oops. Kinds, not kids. Sorry.
We have a Government program called, “The Green Corps” here in Oz, who are young unemployed youth (no, not a green version of the Hitler youth, this is actually involuntary) who are required to work in ‘green’ projects, under the supervision of ‘volunteer’ private green organisations. “Conservation Volunteers Australia” is one of these many Government funded contractors.
That’s horrible. Truly, truly horrible. I support some “green” stuff, if it’s well designed and makes sense. But something like that? Never, ever in a million years. EVER. Just so you know.
Reblogged this on Climatism and commented:
Via Bjørn Lomborg :
Many climate campaigners like to point out that renewables are getting so cheap that they can compete with fossil fuels.
Except they keep needing subsidies (because wind turbines can only compete when the wind’s blowing).
Australia is a good example. The government is thinking about scrapping the huge subsidies, and even before it is announced, the renewable energy industry grinds to a halt, as Sydney Morning Herald tells us.
Tellingly, they say that reductions could “potentially affect the viability of even existing investments.”
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/australias-renewable-energy-industry-grinds-to-a-halt-20140716-ztio2.html
Mary Brown says:
July 18, 2014 at 11:16 am
The big problem in cities in 1905 was horse poop. No solution was in sight. A few years later…solved. You never know what the future holds. Perhaps in 10 years, renewables will be 99% due to a major innovation
By 2020 or so, renewables will be economic roadkill. Check out LPPhysics.com for how. Its designs, once tested, will be licensed to all comers for a small fraction of build cost. Generators anywhere and everywhere, no waste (a little He4), 5¢/W to build, 0.3¢/kWh output, instantly dispatchable. Fuel available at about $5/MWh at 10X current total world demand for a few billion years.
Mary Brown says:
July 18, 2014 at 11:16 am
The big problem in cities in 1905 was horse poop. No solution was in sight. A few years later…solved. You never know what the future holds. Perhaps in 10 years, renewables will be 99% due to a major innovation.
+++++++++++
Two things wrong with your statement Mary:
1) Road Poop was a problem, CO2 is NOT.
2) Problem was solved by capitalism, a car company that sold a product that had value. So-called renewables on the other hand only get purchased by taking other people’s money forcibly, and paying off the winners to make a product that has negative value.
By 2020 or so, renewables will be economic roadkill. Check out LPPhysics.com for how. Its designs, once tested, will be licensed to all comers for a small fraction of build cost. Generators anywhere and everywhere, no waste (a little He4), 5¢/W to build, 0.3¢/kWh output, instantly dispatchable. Fuel available at about $5/MWh at 10X current total world demand for a few billion years.
Ah yes, the fusion evangelists. Can I trade that for a thorium perpetual motion machine?
Australia is a good example. The government is thinking about scrapping the huge subsidies, and even before it is announced, the renewable energy industry grinds to a halt, as Sydney Morning Herald tells us.
Having helped deploy a buck or two, I’d suggest that uncertainty might be a bigger culprit. Kinda tough to make a direct investment when you don’t know what the rules will be. But in the larger scheme of things, I return to the idea that economical grid-scale storage really is the holy grail in the long run.
If they made me high emperor, I’d be deploying lots ‘n lots of research in that direction. The generation isn’t all that big a deal anymore. It’s much more a question of dealing with dispatchability. Until that nut is cracked, renewables will have a tough row to hoe.
I so much indisputably will make sure to do not overlook this site and give it a glance on a constant basis|regularly
Jake J:
“Kinda tough to make a direct investment when you don’t know what the rules will be.”
But it’s simple for them Jake, assume the worst case of zero subsidy and try to make the structure work economically if it goes away. If it still does not make a profit the doors will close, problem solved, learn learned. If they took out credit on the presumption that this massive subsidy quota was always going to be present then business is a tough place to learn that conditions change. Same goes for any foolish creditors. I expect you see it the same basic way.
I had to balance my accounts every week for years and it taught me some hard lessons. If people can’t hack the reality of making their own ends meat and being their own boss, all of the time, which is independence, then they have zero place in business in the first instance – what were they thinking?!
Govt, or rather people’s taxation money should not be propping-up a facade of feigned policy ‘success’ in front of a failed and pretending ‘replacement’ energy industry. How bereft of intelligence is it? Something so fundamental to the very core of society’s ability to even function and eat and these stupid Labor and Green ‘politicians’ and ‘leaders’ wanted to lie and steal and waste and misrepresent what it could and did, and would actually be able to achieve – purely for petty party-political and personal career gain!
Can you think of anything more treacherous and unsound? Maybe this little rant gives people a sense of why we’re p*ssed about all these liars and crooks in left/green of politics and the treacherous warped ABC bed-wetters and fear-mongers.
And thank goodness for the mental toughness, capacity and facility of WUWT, and Jo Nova, and the conservative journalists like Bolt and several others like him, for standing their ground with such resolution.
It made all the difference in exposing their thoroughly uneconomic green-energy subsidy scams.
@Unmentionable, with respect to alternative energy in Australia, the devil’s in the details. My comment about uncertainty was a general statement made without specific knowledge of the details there. I can easily imagine, to use a word, an investment “hiatus” while a new playing field is defined.
As for subsidies, it’s a complex issue. Fact is, every tax code has implicit subsidies and penalties. This isn’t to justify every stupid boondoggle, but rather to say that simply shouting “subsidy!” in a crowded theater isn’t going to make me run out. I’ll stick around for the rest of the movie. Or to put it differently: I’m a free-market kinda guy, but I try not to be too naive about it, either literally or for rhetorical effect.
To look at it from another angle, in the West, we tend to be free-markety at the firm level but not so much at thew sectoral level. There is heavy gov’t involvement in telecom, energy, food, mining, shipping, education, health care, and housing as sectors, including not just direct regulation but financial carrots and sticks.
Rail, rant, and rave if you will, but it’s true. Always has been, always will be. The fights are mostly around the edges. It occurs to me that the “climate change” fight might best be viewed as a fight within the energy sector.
Jake J,
Solar cell take more energy to produce then they ever will produce, It like spending $2.00 to earn $1.00. You are just like the farmer that was raising buffalo, I work for a bank which has many rural locations and we do finance farmers and ranchers. We had our agricultural lender ran the buffalo farmers numbers and came across of insurmountable fact, for ever $1.00 of feed fed into the buffalos the framer was only getting back $.73, the farmer solution to the problem was to feed up the buffalo up some more before he took them to market. Of course most of us know that would only increase his losses. The same is true for solar no mater how we ramp up solar that fact will always remain, we will only ramp up the loses.
As to you peak oil people, let us remember the web site the Oil Drum, they were a peak oil site. They were a lot of fun to read you could learn a lot, but alas it became obvious to them the peak oil is a very long way off, not years off but hundreds of years off. So they closed up shop, the site is no longer maintained it you can find it at all.
Solar cell take more energy to produce then they ever will produce, It like spending $2.00 to earn $1.00.
Your payback claim is flatly wrong. It obviously depends on where you put the panels, but you might recall that I advocate them in places that make sense, as opposed to places like Germany, the U.K., and Seattle.
http://www.clca.columbia.edu/236_PE_Magazine_Fthenakis_2_10_12.pdf