WeatherBell’s Joe Bastardi writes in with an update. Arthur is predicted to reach hurricane strength and have strong winds. The Fourth of July for the outer banks looks dire. Storm surge will also be a huge factor if the storm follows the predicted path.
Bastardi writes:
[In the] latest ECMWF, it’s an ugly storm at tip of Hatteras with 110 knots plus gusts at 10 meters! Central pressure 966 millibars.
See the graphic:
Simulated radar path:
Path from Bastardi:
[I’m advised that the ECMWF graphic originally here had to be taken down because of some bizzaro copyright rules on its use, I have substituted graphics, sorry. – Anthony]
Latest from NHC at the time of this posting:
WTNT31 KNHC 021742 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 200 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2014 ...ARTHUR EXPECTED TO PASS WELL EAST OF THE NORTH FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.4N 79.1W ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM ENE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BOGUE INLET TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO SOUND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/ VIRGINIA BORDER * EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND * PAMLICO SOUND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ANY DEVIATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE LEFT...OR AN INCREASE IN THE FORECAST SIZE OF ARTHUR WOULD LIKELY REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR ALL OR PART OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WARNING AREA...PRIMARILY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST. ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON THURSDAY. THE CENTER OF ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PASS EAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TONIGHT AND MOVE PARALLEL TO THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING ARTHUR. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
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Given the above, “I Spy” a linkage !
“Our algorithm is working to our specifications for ‘other programs'” [NOAA Push-back in paraphrase],
“Other program(s)”: ECMWF !
🙂
The biggest problem is with the rain. If the storm brings lots of rain the water level in the sound behind the banks can get a few feet higher than the ocean. The inlets, actually outlets, have a life span. They are “New” when they get dug out by a big storm and then they silt in over the years eventually forming an island on the sound side of the inlet. In a big rain the silted over inlets fail to let out enough water and so the waters of the sound dig a new channel bringing down a few houses.
This will be the worst disaster in, like……ever, when it happens some day. The science is settled.Rising seas. Storm of the century.
Okracoke Inlet Is home to one of my favorite literary oddities. In Hunt for Red October Jack Ryan brought the aircraft carrier sized submarine into Qkracoke Inlet and hid it from the Russians in the sound right where you can see people digging clams a hundred yards off shore in ankle deep water. He had to know that since he was from around there.
Yikes. Arthur is WAY to the west of where it was “supposed” to be at this time. From the weather radar, we can see it’s slightly north of the latitude of Jacksonville, but at the longitude of Georgetown, SC. Anthony’s forecast map had it well east of there by now.
It could still curve, but … Of course, there’s a huge continental shelf off the coast of SC that might weaken it greatly. Here’s to hoping.
The holiday is “Independence Day”, the 4th of July is only a date. The name means something.
Well not to worry.
News on my computer says NASA has launched a satellite that is going to save the planet from CO2.
Good luck on that project.
“””””…..Ric Werme says:
July 2, 2014 at 2:14 pm
Anthony wrote:
REPLY: It helps to read what Bastardi wrote in the top of the article:
[In the] latest ECMWF, it’s an ugly storm at tip of Hatteras with 110 knots plus gusts at 10 meters! Central pressure 966 millibars.
Seems pretty clear to me. – Anthony ……”””””
See silly me would have read that as ………with 110 knots plus gusts , at ten meters…….
Well who gives a rat’s these days about puncture ation; I mean , like it interferes with texting important messages !!
George, I will have to call you out on your bullshit. ‘News on my computer says NASA has launched a satellite that is going to save the planet from CO2.’.
I have just checked and not one news article has said that.
However, always happy to be corrected. Post a link that proves your statement and I will concede.
Dialup alert – This page requires a broadband connection and a computer with at least 512MB of memory.
Last Updated: 10:56 PM Jul 02 EDT NO LONGER RECORDING
http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?157
Ric Werme says:
July 2, 2014 at 6:51 pm
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Thanks Ric. I was unaware they were private. That explains their behaviour. Doesn’t necessarily excuse it though. In dire situations (which this may become) responsible corporations do the right thing.
Katie says:
July 2, 2014 at 8:27 pm
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Methinks George was being sarcastic.
Ah ‘The Just Joking’ defense which someone else had to make.
Katie says:
July 2, 2014 at 8:27 pm
Can I play? Even if I keep my tongue in my cheek?
This idea that the satellite will save us from CO2 is scurrilous. Just because it’s named OCO-2 doesn’t mean it has anything to do with CO-2 or even OCO, it actually an abbreviation hiding it’s true purpose: Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (2 because of that unpleasantness with the first satellite, may it rest in pieces). Oh – this satellite is a “carbon copy” of the original. Except I think they fixed the faring release.
Yes, it’s tracking carbon! Like dirty soot! Slippery graphite! And maybe best friend diamond. Even that Gray Lady says so, why, the title of http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/30/science/nasa-launching-satellite-to-track-carbon.html is NASA Launching Satellite to Track Carbon
A little more seriously, the word is, from http://oco.jpl.nasa.gov/newsoco :
So, to make up for the lost satellite, they launched this one twice! “at 2:56 a.m. PDT (5:56 a.m. PDT)”
I wonder if there’s any chance of a seiche motion in any of the bays along the coast there, particularly Chesapeake bay. It looks like conditions are right and Murphy leaves nothing to chance. And it’s just one more thing they won’t need. Best wishes to all for a safe evac or ride-out.
Katie & David: actually, George is correct. Yahoo’s newsfeed headline(from my iphone) for the article reads, “Nasa launches satellite to save Mother Earth”. The article itself does not use that terminology. Yahoo is being, well, Yahoo.
Zygrib still has it at 60 knots with gusts included up to 76 knots. Still far from 110 knots. This at 0600 UTC time Friday morning.
This probably come from NOAA so I guess that estimate may be run by climate models and probably is not accurate enough …
All caps is a way of shouting alarm! crisis!
Just a note to the folks upset about all caps – chances are these transmissions are intented for a number of devices, some of them NON-WEB-BASED, e.g. teletypes or the like. One thing worth noting is such communication methods are often more robust (less sophistication means less to go wrong). I’ve heard that they are also less prone to problems in case of severe electrical events (say a mini-Carrington or some such).
If it’s really too hard to read, just copy and past it into M$Word or a processor of your choice, and set the case to sentence case. Copy, paste, couple of clicks, done…all of ten seconds.
Finally, the pros that use this info are probably used to it, and have been using this format for years. Probably are able to spot things quickly based on the format….
Someone mentioned 7-bit – another benefit, it uses minimal bandwidth, which would also be helpful in difficult situations (or remote locations) where there’s not much bandwidth to go around. Not everyone has the latest and greatest, nor is it always necessary.
Some folks want something new, whether or not it’s better: I’ll take something better, whether or not it’s new….
The distribution of weather information includes some rather old but necessary technology.
http://weather.noaa.gov/fax/marine.shtml
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/marine/rfax.pdf
RadioFax is alive and well but it works best with source images that are very scannable at low resolution. Hence the all-caps typeface.
You can capture these on your computer if you are sufficiently geeky:
http://www.blackcatsystems.com/software/multimode/fax.html
I wouldn’t worry too much about the Outer Banks vacationers being caught in “the nightmare scenario.” I’m a seasoned OBX visitor myself, having started vacationing there in 1986 and missing only a few summers since then.
The difference between vacationing there and other beaches is that there aren’t many hotels down on the island. There’s a couple here and there, but mostly it’s private beach houses rented by the week. To get a beachfront home you’d better have your reservations in by March or so, meaning there’s not a lot of “Hey, let’s go to Hatteras for the weekend” – type vacationing. Up at Nags Head and Kitty Hawk there’s a lot of hotels, but down island not so many, and those are pretty small.
What you have then, are people who’ve shelled out pretty good money (probably around $3K for a beachfront for a week), and have been watching the weather forecasts for the past three weeks as their rental comes up. There’s no way that this week’s crowd got down there unaware of the storm kicking up in the Atlantic. They’ve been watching the Weather Channel grimly, cursing that pretty spiral of clouds as it refused to die, and were no doubt expecting the notice to be slipped under the door of their rental or the call from the rental office announcing the evacuation.
My family was kicked off the island twice by hurricanes, and another time we beat feet at the crack of dawn on our out-Saturday (most rentals are Saturday to Saturday) to catch low tide so that Rt. 12 would be above water. It was — barely; the road surface stuck up above the water about eight inches or so for miles on end.
I just checked the OBX webcams, and even the Oregon Inlet bridge looked clear. Traffic was moving in both directions, with no backups at all. Looks like everyone took it pretty much in stride.
“is CNN on 24×7 Arthur watch yet?”
Do they have time? Have they given up on the Malayasian aircraft yet? (Never watch them, so I don’t know.)
Where are the sustained winds at hurricane speed?? The offshore buoy with the highest speed is off Charleston, about 42 knots. The definition says a hurricane is sustained 64 knots at the surface.
The National Buoy Data Center has many buoys near the storm, but off North Carolina the winds are in the 30 knot range.
Things are picking up.
http://www.earthcam.com/usa/northcarolina/supply/holden/?cam=holdennc
http://www.surfchex.com/carolina-beach-web-cam.php
I seem to recall from my childhood a map of the Outer Banks with the legend ‘The Graveyard of Ships’.
“Projection” – what a loathsome Orwellian word. What it means is:
A prediction which does not need to be true. It cannot be proved false by any possible outcome. Any events that follow, regardless of their nature, will attest to the correctness, the brilliance, the moist loveliness, the dominant social position and the immunity from criticism of the projectors. To be one that makes projections that are officially recognised is to have attained the status of an oracle beyond questioning or disbelief.
Does anyone out there have the balls to make a good old-fashioned “prediction”? If falsifiability has gone then so has science.