WeatherBell’s Joe Bastardi writes in with an update. Arthur is predicted to reach hurricane strength and have strong winds. The Fourth of July for the outer banks looks dire. Storm surge will also be a huge factor if the storm follows the predicted path.
Bastardi writes:
[In the] latest ECMWF, it’s an ugly storm at tip of Hatteras with 110 knots plus gusts at 10 meters! Central pressure 966 millibars.
See the graphic:
Simulated radar path:
Path from Bastardi:
[I’m advised that the ECMWF graphic originally here had to be taken down because of some bizzaro copyright rules on its use, I have substituted graphics, sorry. – Anthony]
Latest from NHC at the time of this posting:
WTNT31 KNHC 021742 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 200 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2014 ...ARTHUR EXPECTED TO PASS WELL EAST OF THE NORTH FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.4N 79.1W ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM ENE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BOGUE INLET TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO SOUND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/ VIRGINIA BORDER * EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND * PAMLICO SOUND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ANY DEVIATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE LEFT...OR AN INCREASE IN THE FORECAST SIZE OF ARTHUR WOULD LIKELY REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR ALL OR PART OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WARNING AREA...PRIMARILY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST. ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON THURSDAY. THE CENTER OF ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PASS EAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TONIGHT AND MOVE PARALLEL TO THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING ARTHUR. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
Joseph Bastardi says:
July 2, 2014 at 12:22 pm
“No one said it wasnt the gusts, but as you probably know, its gusts that blow the roof off your house”
===========
Good point.
My wife will be flying out of Hartford Ct on Sat at 2 PM. Hope Arthur has passed by then and is far enough out to sea so as not to interrupt the flight.
RE rgbatduke says:
July 2, 2014 at 1:56 pm
REbrians356 says:
July 2, 2014 at 3:06 pm
The nightmare scenario is that you have people arriving expecting only a tropical storm, and awaking the next morning and hearing there may be 110 mph gusts, They were tired the night before after a long drive and did not top off their gas tanks. There is only one bridge off the outer banks, and so the traffic is slow, and then stops as cars run out of gas. Then a hurricane storm surge of 10-15 feet not only closes the roads, but starts to submerge the cars jammed on those words. You fill in the blanks after that for yourself.
Forewarned is forearmed. : :
Caleb,
Your scenario assumes we do not live in the Information Age, and that a hurricane can sneak up with only 24 hours warning. I’d be curious to know just how many people in that storm, when asked, would honestly say “I had no idea there was a hurricane coming.”
brians356,
just refer to the comment I was in part replying to. They were expecting a tropical storm. All you need to do is tweak the storm track 40 miles west.
On the other hand, if you raise the alarm, and the storm shifts 40 miles the other way, you have just cost people hundreds of millions of dollars, for a breezy summer rain.
Hurricane party dude … they ALWAYS turn …. /sarc
On a lighter note, you could just chain it down like this:
http://mountwashington.org/weather/comments/2014/070114-lg.jpg
The link was found here:
http://www.mountwashington.org/
A fun website to visit.
[I’m advised that the ECMWF graphic originally here had to be taken down because of some bizzaro copyright rules on its use, I have substituted graphics, sorry. – Anth
Lives are at stake and they are asserting their copyright? That goes beyond bizzaro. Words fail me.
Meh, the name ‘Arthur’ makes me think of Dudley Moore, and he was only like 5’3″.
Nothing to worry about, folks.
OT, but noteworthy.
This afternoon, the ISEE-3 team successfully commanded the spacecraft to fire thrusters and changed its spin rate.
http://spacecollege.org/isee3/isee-3-engines-fired-for-spin-up.html
Emory says:
July 2, 2014 at 1:35 pm
That inlet, called “New Inlet”, or new New Inlet, was caused by Irene. In the following 6 weeks, the NCDOT folks designed, contracted, got all the various approvals, and built a “temporary bridge’ across that inlet. Many kudoes to NCDOT for a job well done.
Many locals call it the Lego Bridge. The inlet has been pretty much filled in for the last year. NCDOT is now doing the prep work for building the permanent replacement.
There used to be an inlet in that vicinity, called New Inlet. I don’t remember which storm opened it, nor which one closed it.
If you are interested, NCDOT has a site with a whole series of photos of the construction of the Lego Bridge. http://www.ncdot.gov/travel/nc12recovery/
Rich
Experimental Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map (Inundation)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/?inundation#contents
What is a gust “…at ten meters.?
REPLY: 10 meters above the surface, standard anemometer height -A
The Hermit says:
July 2, 2014 at 4:23 pm
‘Arthur’ was the name of the dog that, as the movie faded to black, was about to knock him of the stool he was standing on, with a noose around his neck, after he’d talked himself out of committing suicide.
knock him off the stool (chair?)
Scute says:
July 2, 2014 at 11:44 am
Why do all government sponsored memos use formatting that hasn’t been updated since the 1950′s? So tiring to read.
Probably because they need to be compatible with the oldest piece of gear still in service on their network — which is likely pretty ancient. If I recall correctly the mechanical teletypes widely used at remote locations in the 1950s and 1960s. had only upper case.
Then there is the issue of funding to rewrite software that works fine as is.
Apologies Hermit, I confused Dudley with Tom Conti in “Reuben, Reuben”.
Reuben was the dastardly dog.
The film did not fade to black – unless you saw an edited version for our new “kinder, gentler” world. There was plenty of kicking and thrashing filmed from about mid-torso down when I first saw the film.
And the dogs name was Reuben, not the character. The character’s name was Gowan.
Merrick
I saw the TV version and as I mentioned “Reuben was the dastardly dog.”
Now back to regular programming
http://www.earthcam.com/usa/northcarolina/supply/holden/?cam=holdennc
http://www.surfline.com/surf-report/cape-hatteras-lighthouse-southeast_5230/
The Kill Devil Hills are pretty windy even out of hurricane season, which is why the Wright Brothers chose the area for their experimental flights going on 111 years ago. How time flies, so to speak.
http://www.surfchex.com/
This one’s not live but refresh CTRL+F5 works pretty well.
http://www.avalonpier.com/piercam.html
You have to be kidding. It is hilarious, but serious at the same time. Leave the reporting of disaster weather events up to the main stream media. There is no point in highlighting them here. Some people, who don’t understand the science, come here to read that the weather is not bad and the climate is stable. To read about these terrible events here must terrify them.
I have noticed there is a lot more reporting of unusual weather events in the mainstream media recently and this could lead people to think there is climate change. Reporting it here only emphases this point.
Leave the alarmist reporting to someone else. Don’t mention it here on this blog.
Watching the Holden Beach cam. Lots of traffic heading north with some heading west. Almost nothing southbound. Weather related? 😉
davidmhoffer says:
July 2, 2014 at 4:21 pm
Others can do a much better job describing the ECMWF than I can, but they’re not an American gov’t agency that gives its product away for free, like the NWS or GPS system (note that the NCDC sells some of its data…).
They’re based in England, but don’t think BBC and the TV tax.
http://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/who-we-are says in part:
If they gave away their products, they’d go bankrupt, so they don’t. OTOH, they also say:
So if they worked out a deal where their members kept sending them money, but the ECMWF made everything public, perhaps after a couple hour delay, perhaps that would work.
However, we are talking Europe and a few other local countries here. Some don’t like giving away their stuff for free.
From NOAA:
8:00 PM EDT Wed Jul 2
Location: 30.2°N 79.2°W
Moving: N at 8 mph
Min pressure: 990 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph
Still classified a Tropical Storm (not Monster Hurricane and an Aussi (Auz) paper called it).
[rather,”as an Aussie paper” called it? .mod]
Hey Anthony, you miss the launch of CalTechs OCO-2 satellite? Successful.