From World Scientific Publishing Co. and the International Journal of Modern Physics comes this insane idea; build 300 meter (984 feet) high “great walls” in the midwest to break up the flow patterns. Riiiigght. We can’t even build a wall in Texas to protect our southern border.
We Can Eliminate the Major Tornado Threat in Tornado Alley
The annually recurring devastating tornado attacks in US Tornado Alley raise an important question: Can we eliminate the major tornado threat in Tornado Alley? Some people may claim that such a question is beyond imagination as people are powerless in facing violent tornadoes. However, according to Professor Rongjia Tao’s recent publication in IJMPB, human beings are not powerless on this issue: if we build three east-west great walls in Tornado Alley, we will eliminate major tornado threat there forever. These walls can be built locally at high tornado risk areas to eliminate tornado threat there first, then gradually extended.
In the US, most devastating tornadoes occur in Tornado Alley, which is a strip of land between the Appalachian Mountains and the Rocky Mountains, including most American Midwest states. In 2013, there were 811 confirmed tornadoes in USA, 57 in Europe and 3 in China. Among 811 tornadoes in USA, most of them, especially the most devastating ones, occurred in Tornado Alley. What causes such huge differences?
From the atmospheric circulation point of view, Tornado Alley is inside the “zone of mixing”, where the warm and moist air flows northbound and cold air flows southbound. At a certain season, the warm air flow front clashes with the cold air flow front at some place in Tornado Alley. Major tornadoes in Tornado Alley all start with such clashes (Fig.1). Especially as there is no east-west mountain in Tornado Alley to weaken or block the air flows, some clashes are violent, creating vortex turbulence. Such violent vortexes, supercells, are initially in horizontal spinning motion at the lower atmosphere, then tilt as the air turns to rise in the storm’s updraft, creating a component of spin around a vertical axis. If the vortex stretching during the vortex tilting intensifies the vertical vorticity enough to create a tornado, the vortex size is getting much smaller as the rotation speed gets much faster. About 30% of supercells lead to tornadoes (Fig.2).
Fig.1 When a strong warm most air flow comes to Tornado Alley, the violent clashes with the cold air flow can extend several states, making tornado outbreaks at several places in a very short period.
Fig.2. The intensive clash between the winds from the south and the winds from the north is the source for formation of tornados in Tornado Alley. (a) Violent clash creates a vortex -supercell. (b) Tilt and updraft creates a spin about a vertical axis leading to mesocyclone. (C) Further stretching and strong vertical vorticity may lead to tornado.
Calculations show that the chance to produce tornadoes depends on the wind speeds during the clashes. For example, if both cold wind and warm wind have speed 30 miles/h (13.3m/s), the chance to develop tornados from the clash is very high. On the other hand, if the both winds have speed below 15 miles/h, there is almost no chance for the clash to develop into tornadoes. Hence reducing the wind speed and eliminating the violent air mass clashes are the key to prevent tornado formation in Tornado Alley. We can learn from the Nature how to do so.
United States and China have similar geographic locations. In particular, the Northern China Plain and the Eastern China Plain is also in the zone of mixing, similar to Tornado Alley. However, very few violent tornadoes occur in this region of China because there are three east-west mountain ranges to protect these plains from tornado threat. The first one is 300km long Yan Mountain which lies at the northern boundary of these plains. The second one is 600km long Nanling (Nan Mountains) at the south boundary of these plains. The third one is 800kom long Jiang-Huai Hills through the middle of the plains. Especially, Jiang-Huai Hills are only about 300 meters above sea level, but effectively eliminate the major tornado threat for the areas. This is evidenced by the following fact.
Jiang-Huai Hills do not extend to Pacific ocean, leaving a small plain area, north part of Jiangsu province, unprotected. This small area, similar to US Tornado Alley, has annually recurring tornado outbreaks. For example, the city Gaoyou in this area has a nickname “Tornado hometown”, which has tornado outbreaks once in two years on average. It is thus clear that Jiang-Huai Hills are extremely effectively in eliminating tornadoes formation. Without Jiang-Huai Hills, a quite big area in China would become “Tornado Hometown”
While there are no mountains in Tornado Alley to play the same role as Jiang-Huai Hills etc in China, there are two small mountains, Ozarks Mountains and Shawnee Hills, which significantly reduce tornado risk for some local areas.
Ozark Mountain consists of high and deeply dissected plateaus; the mountain hills are south-north ranged. Most parts of these north-south hills cannot block or weaken air mass flow between north and south. Therefore, for example, Joplin has very high tornado risk as it faces the north-south deeps and valleys formed by these hills, the winds get more strength as they pass these valleys and deeps. On the other hand, some small sections of St. Francois Mountains and Boston Mountains have the hills east-west connected. Therefore, for example, Rolla, Missouri has very low tornado risk, as analyzed by www.homefact.com/tornadoes/.
The devastating tornado outbreak in Washington County, IL on November 17, 2013 also reminds us about Shawnee Hills, which is a small mountain, 60 miles east from Washington County. Most Shawnee Hills are along the south – north direction, but some sections are east-west connected, located at the south border of Gallatin County. Therefore, Gallatin County has very low tornado risk, although the most land in Gallatin County is flat farm land, same as Washington county.
According to Dr. Tao, the above information learned from Nature is very encouraging. Although there are no east-west mountains in Tornado Alley, we can build some east-west great walls to play the same role. Also learned from Jiang-Huai Hills and Shawnee Hills, the wall needs about 300 meter high and 50 meter wide.
To eliminate the tornado threat for the entire Tornado Alley, we may need to build three great walls. The first one should be close to the northern boundary of the Tornado Alley, maybe in North Dakota. The second one should be in the middle, maybe in the middle of Oklahoma and going to east. The third one can be in the south of Texas and Louisiana.
Such great walls may affect the weather, but their effect on the weather will be minor, as evidenced by Shawnee Hills in Illinois. In fact, with scientific design, we may also use these walls to improve the local climate.
In Philadelphia, there is one skyscraper building, Comcast Center, about 300 meter high. From the cost of Comcast Center, we estimate that to build one mile such wall, we need about $160 million. On the other hand, the damages caused by single tornado attack in Moore, Oklahoma on May 20, 2013 alone were multi billion dollars. Therefore, it seems that the cost for building such a wall is affordable.
While building the three great walls will eventually eliminate major tornadoes in the entire Tornado Alley, we do not expect to start such a huge project in the near future. On the other hand, it is more realistic to build such great walls locally at high tornado risk areas first, then connect them piece by piece. To do so locally, we must remember that from air fluid dynamics, the area protected by the wall is roughly a circle with the wall as its diameter.
Also in developing any new city in Tornado Alley in future, we may consider to build east-west skyscraper buildings first, then allocate the other parts of the city surrounding the skyscraper buildings. In such a way, the skyscraper buildings will serve as a wall, eliminating major tornado formation in their surroundings to protect the whole city.
Acknowledgments: This work is supported in part by a grant from US Naval Research Lab.
The paper will appear in IJMPB.
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Source: http://www.worldscientific.com/page/pressroom/2014-06-23-02
From what I can tell about this journal publisher, there seems to be no peer review of any kind in the Editorial Process: http://www.worldscientific.com/page/authors/authorkit
Pity the fool at the US Naval Research Lab who approved this grant.
And there is this thing called the Central Flyway…hundreds of millions of migrating birds who might find a 1000 foot wall a bit of an obstacle. Maybe we could plant a rain forest for them just north of the wall in North Dakota. With climate change estimated at the usual hysterical rate, it ought to be tropical in ten years, tops.
“Like the concurrent nuclear handgrenades?”
Bring back the Atomic Cannon!!!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M65_Atomic_Cannon
wonderful pic here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M65_Atomic_Cannon#mediaviewer/File:Nuclear_artillery_test_Grable_Event_-_Part_of_Operation_Upshot-Knothole.jpg
And there’s just something about the idea of nuking the midwest everytime someone spots a tornado…. Well, after a couple of rounds of that, nobody is going to be talking about the tornadoes anymore!!!
I think it would be most effective if it started at about 32N 117W and extended to 25N 97W.
This loony idea has whipped up a whirlwind of snarky comments on WUWT…
a Snarknado!
There is a lot of nonsense written bout the Great Wall of China. But there hasn’t been much lately. So this silly article is welcome. When I was a kid no one worried about armies of zombies. But today Zombie Preparedness is a billion dollar industry. With some kind of Global Warming tie in – this could be the next big thing.
Before we actually went there, it was said that the only human artifact that could be seen from the moon was the Great Wall of China. This is the kind of ‘fact’ that only lasts as long as no one bothers to think about it. The Great Wall is about twenty or thirty feet wide. The road in front of my house is also about twenty or thirty feet wide. So I suppose it could also be seen from space. There is a freeway at the bottom of the hill that is maybe a hundred feet wide and even wider when it reaches the Bay Bridge Toll Plaza. I’m told that new eastern section of the Bay Bridge is the widest bridge in the world. I’m not sure I believe that, but it is many times wider than the Great Wall anywhere.
In fact most of the Great Wall can’t be seen from earth. The Warring Kingdoms period ended when Chin Szuanadi in 221 BC consolidated the walls of the other conquered kingdoms to form the Great Wall. He unified China with one wall but it was a rammed earth wall. Almost all of the original dirt wall has crumbled in 2,000 years. It looks like just a vague mound of dirt in most places. You can see it clearly from a plane but on the ground it’s hard to spot. Also the course of the wall changed over the centuries as the extent of the arable land advanced and receded. There isn’t one Great Wall there are many parallel to each other – the result of the shifting deserts.
Everyone is confused by the stone Ming Wall built in the seventeenth century. This is the tourist attraction. This is the one Nixon trod. It is quite modern. Shakespeare was writing when this wall was being built.
In fact of this Great Wall proves something unexpected. It proves that the Chinese didn’t invent gunpowder.
The Gunpowder Revolution began in the fifteenth century in Europe with the invention of corning. Earlier mixtures of saltpeter and carbon were not militarily effective on the battlefield. In 1490 or so Charles the Eighth invaded Italy with cannon. In just a few years he knocked down fortifications that had stood for millennia. This set off an architectural revolution. Vertical walls were longer proof against assault. Newer designs were low and sloped to resist cannon balls.
But China which was innocent of guns and gunpowder at that time still built the Great Wall with those obsolete vertical walls. As late the end of the eighteenth century when the McCartney expedition arrived from England the Chinese (or more accurately the Manchus) were still arming with crossbows. They didn’t employ guns. They didn’t need modern walls.
The only real stone military wall in antiquity was Hadrian’s Wall across England.
From Gerard Harbison on June 23, 2014 at 11:36 am:
What’s for dinner? Duck, duck, goose. Use that concrete wall for a backstop for the shotgun pellets, or wait at the bottom for the birds that impact. Yummy.
Van Grgenbrad said on June 23, 2014 at 10:46 am:
Why would we worry about mobs? We have no wild kangaroos.
What an odd idea. My first thought is that this 1000′ high wall, not hills, is going to create a hell of a knife edge vortex on the lee side. Most small ranges I’m familiar with have slopes on the order of one unit rise in a five unit run. Even so, the lee slope below the ridge line seldom has mature trees, as they’re blown down on a regular basis by simple frontal thunderstorms. This wall, even if they slope it will have a 12:1 rise to run. Will a wall, not a skyscraper, even stand up against moderate winds on such a narrow base (1/6 of height)?
Hoover dam is about that height (376m) with a 200m thick base, a curved shape to put stresses in compression and optimization of strength toward a single side. Granted that the water exerts a greater pressure, but the pressure decreases with increasing height where wind pressure increases with increasing height. A look at the proportions says to me the wall needs to be on the order of 150m thick, three times what our academics talk about, or it may just be blown over.
Perhaps some archictural or dam engineers could put pencil to back of envelope and figure the structural requirements of such a wall.
cheers,
gary
There are dozens of funding options. For instance you could cordon off sections of the wall at, say, five mile intervals and use the sections for drive in movie theaters. Other sections would make dandy handball courts. You could bolt long horizontal poles to the walls, string cable from the poles (horizontally) and use the cables for clothes lines. Green clothes dryers. Think of the carbon savings.
Any other ideas out there?
Well it might work. So don’t reject it out of hand.
The costs of the mega-structure may not quite be justified but tornadoes are bad so… how about trying it in a smaller region with tented fencing? See if the models match reality and if it does you may have a real solution to the weather.
Just because it’s incredible doesn’t mean its impossible.
I’ll bet we could dig a storm cellar for every house in Kansas and Oklahoma for quite a bit less money.
Ken says:
June 23, 2014 at 12:09 pm
Make an awesome ziplining run.
Couldn’t this be tested in a model simulation before actually being built?
…sorry. But it seems fertile minds are keeping busy. Was there not a suggestion, recently, that an oceanic windmill farm would stop hurricanes? In principle I’m in favor of thinking about geo-engineering, but it would be good to establish a high probability of success before proceeding with the actual project. Also, it would be worth exploring what other negative weather/climate effects could be the result of such projects.
First, given how little we know about the causes of climate, I find it ridiculous that they would pontificate that the effect would be minimal. If it is going to curtail Tornadoes, that in itself would be more than minimal.
And second, this is a hair brained scheme. There is no way to build a wall that would rival a mountain range without both prohibitive costs and unforeseen effects. But I guess if they were going to put tin foil hats on mountains, this is just another example of wacky ideas.
I don’t think you need to build a tall wall. Major metropolitan areas are rarely hit by tornadoes because dense, relatively low rise development make surface flow very turbulent. How about we model this affect and come up with some structure that does the same thing for less than the cost of square miles of dense 2-4 story buildings. If a small town could build such an emplacement they might be able to create a protective “tornado” shadow. I am pretty sure it could be done, just not sure how large/expensive it would have to be.
This idea would create a lot of green jobs just filling out the paperwork for the Environmental Impact Statement. I assume it must all be handicapped accessible? Don’t forget the lighting requirements imposed on tall structures by the FAA. This project is a bureaucrat’s dream.
The walls of Babel?
It needs flying buttresses. Double duty as ski and snow mobile runs.
I really want to see one of the sections blow over.
Patrick L. Boyle says:
June 23, 2014 at 11:56 am
The Ottomans used cannons to breach the walls which protected Constantinople a little earlier in 1453. IIRC correctly it was a European who provided the Ottomans with their cannons, after the Byzantines were unable to meet his price. The city was not well defended at the time, so I couldn’t say whether the new cannons would have sufficed against proper garrison.
sounds like a great way to create jobs !
After that I can just imagine what Ma Nature will do with those silly little walls: rip then out of the ground and throw them on the nearest town with no storm shelters in the schoolhouse.
After the hubris to think we can change climate, the hubris to think we can stop tornadoes.
Such grand ideas, so little thought.
Sounds like a great way to prove the law of Unintended Consequences.
If they succeeded in disrupting wind circulation patterns in the Mid West the
climatic effects are incalculable. Blocking the flow of hot moist air from the
Gulf of Mexico may reduce tornadoes at the cost of reducing rainfall in America’s
breadbasket and producing a new dustbowl.
Ric Werme says:
June 23, 2014 at 1:06 pm
It needs flying buttresses.
===
Yeah, good idea, that’ll add a whole new meaning to the term flying buttress: literally.
I suppose they could mount some windmills on top of that wall.
/sarc
Must be an import from the Iraq and Afghanistan spending list, or some leftover ideas from California.
“the cost for building such a wall is affordable.”
Damn right it’s affordable. Anything and everything is affordable . . . when you are spending Other People’s Money.
Turning this idea around a bit, it could be an attempt to block snowbirds from voting with their feet.