From McGill University
Researchers from McGill and the U.S. Geological Survey, more used to measuring thawing permafrost than its expansion, have made a surprising discovery. There is new permafrost forming around Twelvemile Lake in the interior of Alaska. But they have also quickly concluded that, given the current rate of climate change, it won’t last beyond the end of this century.
Twelvemile Lake, and many others like it, is disappearing. Over the past thirty years, as a result of climate change and thawing permafrost, the lake water has been receding at an alarming rate. It is now 5 metres or 15 feet shallower than it would have been three decades ago. This is a big change in a very short time.
As the lake recedes, bands of willow shrubs have grown up on the newly exposed lake shores over the past twenty years. What Martin Briggs from the U.S. Geological Survey and Prof. Jeffrey McKenzie from McGill’s Dept. of Earth and Planetary Science have just discovered is that the extra shade provided by these willow shrubs has both cooled and dried the surrounding soil, allowing new permafrost to expand beneath them.
The researchers were initially very excited by this find. But after analyzing the thickness of the new permafrost and projecting how it will be affected by continued climate change and the expected rise in temperature in the Arctic of 3°C, they arrived at the conclusion that the new permafrost won’t last beyond the end of the century.
To read “New permafrost is forming around shrinking Arctic lakes, but will it last?” by Martin Briggs et al in Geophysical Research Letters: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/enhanced/doi/10.1002/2014GL059251/
###
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
Let’s see you get rid of that with homogenization, warm-mongers.
Three degrees will never come, If without the positive feed back the most warming from CO2 will would around 1 C anyone thinking differently is a loon. The chances of that happen is even lees since nature variation may swamp out any positive warming from CO2. If there were positive feedback we would have an unstable climate system and we would oscillate between and ice ball and a hot house. That does not happen so positive feed exist only in the land of unicorns.
But they have also quickly concluded that, given the current rate of climate change, it won’t last beyond the end of this century. [McGill researchers press release; 2014]
That will be in 86 years. Very likely the site will be covered by about 20 metres of ice then. I’ll put it on my places to visit at that time and send a report.
the fact is new permafrost …but..why should scientist only have to tell the facts? so but it won’t last.
You said bias?
Just weather.
Local effect.
Deeper heat is hiding under the permafrost…
.
HEY!…..look over there!!!
P.S. Also it’s conveniently predicted to disappear long after anyone alive can disprove the 2100 prediction……Convenient that.
Jimbo….Can we have another list please if you have one?!
Ta.
Vegetation helps to keep the ground warmer at night so why should the returning permafrost be anything to do with the vegetation cover ?
More likely the climate has become colder again since the vegetation became established.
Of course;
“IT won’t last”
since when was observing accurately measuring. hypothesizing and reporting honestly been a part of CAGW?
Some strange wording here – was it in the original text?
“It is now 5 metres or 15 feet shallower than it would have been three decades ago. ”
Why not simply say “shallower than it was three decades ago?” Did they measure the depth three decades ago or just model it?
The water is receding. Permafrost is forming in the section that was kept warmer by the water. Why is that a surprise?
Why is permafrost good ?
A little warming increases forest at the expense of barren taiga, and expands arable land at the expense of less-productive forest. Isn’t that good ?
Colder weather is also drier, particularly in arctic areas. Lake levels are sinking, new permafrost is forming.
What does this suggest about climate in Alaska?
Jimmi_the_dalek says:
June 10, 2014 at 11:46 pm
The water is receding. Permafrost is forming in the section that was kept warmer by the water. Why is that a surprise?
‘Permafrost is permanently frozen soil, sediment, or rock. Its classification is solely based on temperature, not moisture or ground cover. The ground must remain at or below 0°C for at least two years in order to be considered permafrost.’
http://www.wunderground.com/climate/permafrost.asp
From the Abstract: ‘Permafrost aggradation, however, has been observed within the margins of recently receded lakes, in seeming contradiction of climate warming.’
So it was a surprise to the scientists. Must have been dumb scientists. /sarc
Jimmi_the_dalek says:
June 10, 2014 at 11:46 pm
Why is that a surprise?
From the Abstract: ‘Widespread lake shrinkage in cold regions has been linked to climate warming and permafrost thaw. Permafrost aggradation, however, has been observed within the margins of recently receded lakes, in seeming contradiction of climate warming.’
Dumb scientists? sarc\
‘Permafrost is permanently frozen soil, sediment, or rock. Its classification is solely based on temperature, not moisture or ground cover. The ground must remain at or below 0°C for at least two years in order to be considered permafrost.’
http://www.wunderground.com/climate/permafrost.asp?MR=1
Jimmi_the_dalek says:
June 10, 2014 at 11:46 pm
Why is that a surprise?
Dumb Scientists? sarc\
from the Abstract: ‘Widespread lake shrinkage in cold regions has been linked to climate warming and permafrost thaw. Permafrost aggradation, however, has been observed within the margins of recently receded lakes, in seeming contradiction of climate warming.’
Need a “Like” button for the comments 🙂
Damn, looks like the same 3 in moderation
4TimesAYear says:
June 11, 2014 at 12:22 am
Need a “Like” button for the comments 🙂
I like that !!
We could also do with numbering each comment, to make re-finding info easy
Second the “like” button notion…
If its anything like Finland then the land is still rebounding after the compreshion caused by the last ice age, so a shallower lake has nothing to do with ‘man made’ global warming but just that boring old natural variety.
john says:
June 11, 2014 at 12:59 am
We could also do with numbering each comment, to make re-finding info easy
==============================================
They are.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/06/10/a-sign-of-cooling-new-permafrost-is-forming-around-shrinking-arctic-lakes/#comment-1659735
” …….. 5 metres or 15 feet ….”
Are the metres shrinking as well or are the feet getting bigger?
According to my Norries Tables 5M = 16′ 5″ approx.
Sloppy work.
“… they have also quickly concluded that, given the current rate of climate change, it won’t last beyond the end of this century.”
*Sigh*, let’s leave out the best proxy we have for near Arctic temperature, the Greenland ice core, where regular plunges are now being ignored, playfully illustrated here:
http://oi61.tinypic.com/2cxbxw4.jpg
http://climategrog.wordpress.com/?attachment_id=964
oops, posted before I intended.
http://climategrog.wordpress.com/?attachment_id=964
length of melting season at each pole, derived from sea ice extent.
Recent years, NH and SH seem to mirror each other nicely, suggesting this may be a global tendency rather than a local feedback.