Claim: 'The Southern Ocean winds are now stronger than at any other time in the past 1,000 years,' CO2 blamed

From the Australian National University and the department of “claim anything” comes this reversal over what was said two years ago about Antarctica:

“If this rapid warming that we are now seeing continues, we can expect that ice shelves further south along the peninsula that have been stable for thousands of years will also become vulnerable,” said Nerilie Abram, of the Australian National University.

So which is it? Rapid warming, or not warming as much because the winds are “strengthened by carbon dioxide”? I’d love to see proof of that mechanism, and no, models aren’t proof. From Eurekalert:

Ocean winds keep Antarctica cold, Australia dry

Why Antarctica isn’t warming as much as other continents

New Australian National University-led research has explained why Antarctica is not warming as much as other continents, and why southern Australia is recording more droughts.

Researchers have found rising levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are strengthening the stormy Southern Ocean winds which deliver rain to southern Australia, but pushing them further south towards Antarctica. 

Lead researcher Nerilie Abram, from the ANU Research School of Earth Sciences, said the findings explained the mystery over why Antarctica was not warming as much as the Arctic, and why Australia faces more droughts.

VIDEO: Dr. Nerlie Abram, from the Australian National University, explains why ocean winds have stopped Antarctica from warming as much as other continents. Her research also explains droughts in Southern Australia.

Click here for more information.

“With greenhouse warming, Antarctica is actually stealing more of Australia’s rainfall. It’s not good news – as greenhouse gases continue to rise we’ll get fewer storms chased up into Australia,” Dr Abram said.

“As the westerly winds are getting tighter they’re actually trapping more of the cold air over Antarctica,” Abram said. “This is why Antarctica has bucked the trend. Every other continent is warming, and the Arctic is warming fastest of anywhere on earth.”

IMAGE: Clouds over Australia are shown.Click here for more information.

While most of Antarctica is remaining cold, rapid increases in summer ice melt, glacier retreat and ice shelf collapses are being observed in Antarctic Peninsula, where the stronger winds passing through Drake Passage are making the climate warm exceptionally quickly.

Until this study, published in Nature Climate Change, Antarctic climate observations were available only from the middle of last century.

By analysing ice cores from Antarctica, along with data from tree rings and lakes in South America, Dr Abram and her colleagues were able to extend the history of the westerly winds back over the last millennium.

“The Southern Ocean winds are now stronger than at any other time in the past 1,000 years,” Abram said.

IMAGE: Dr. Nerilie Abram is shown working on an ice core.Click here for more information.

“The strengthening of these winds has been particularly prominent over the past 70 years, and by combining our observations with climate models we can clearly link this to rising greenhouse gas levels.”

Study co-authors Dr Robert Mulvaney and Professor Matthew England said the study answered key questions about climate change in Antarctica.

“Strengthening of these westerly winds helps us to explain why large parts of the Antarctic continent are not yet showing evidence of climate warming,” said Dr Mulvaney, from the British Antarctic Survey.

“This new research suggests that climate models do a good job of capturing how the westerly winds respond to increasing greenhouse gases,” added Professor England, from the Climate Change Research Centre at UNSW.

“This isn’t good news for farmers reliant on winter rainfall over the southern part of Australia.”

 

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Dear Anthony
Sigh…
I would like some funding to continue my research into historical climates.
I am willing to put anything into the title of the submission in order to secure some funding, no matter how fanciful.
However, official researchers seek to be cornering the market in all possible explanations of what co2 can do. We need a brainstorming session with readers here so they can submit some plausible titles, no matter how daft they are on closer examination. The only rules are that the words ‘co2’ ‘1000 years’, ‘escalating’ and ‘alarming’ should be somewhere in the title.
tonyb

LevelGaze

Oh, Matthew England is a co-author.
That tells you everything you need to know.

Jeff

If this were true we wouldn’t be worrying about global warming at all. It would be ice age time. The problem is, despite this so-called “consensus,” these people can’t keep their stories straight and literally say opposite things which contradict each other. It’s obvious many of these people have no clue what they are talking about.

Richo

Could someone please explain how wind speed and direction can be measured from 1000 year old proxy samples?

Admad

Climate change is responsible for the kidfnapping of girls in Nigeria, apparently.
http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/05/11/UK-Guardian-climate-change-to-blame-for-Nigerian-girls-kidnapping
All hail the mighty CO2!

Richo

Yes, Prof England has previously denied that there has been a hiatus in warming in the past 17 years.

Dr Burns

Looking forward to seeing his 1000 years of wind data.

Patrick

Models and the UNSW? Another load of “ship of fools”?

Garbage: …
{“With greenhouse warming, Antarctica is actually stealing more of Australia’s rainfall. It’s not good news – as greenhouse gases continue to rise we’ll get fewer storms chased up into Australia,” Dr Abram said.
“As the westerly winds are getting tighter they’re actually trapping more of the cold air over Antarctica,” Abram said. “This is why Antarctica has bucked the trend. Every other continent is warming, and the Arctic is warming fastest of anywhere on earth.”}
Even smellier garbage:
{“This new research suggests that climate models do a good job of capturing how the westerly winds respond to increasing greenhouse gases,” added Professor England, from the Climate Change Research Centre at UNSW.}

Otter (ClimateOtter on Twitter)

Wait… CO2 is trapping cold air over the Antarctic…. but CO2 is causing cold air to break free and flow all over, from the Arctic……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………?

Jones

Magical

lee

‘By analysing ice cores from Antarctica, along with data from tree rings and lakes in South America, Dr Abram and her colleagues were able to extend the history of the westerly winds back over the last millennium.’
Isn’t there anything dendrochronology can’t do? Not only temperatures but wind strength too.
Get your magical tree he -ere.
Sometimes I’m glad I don’t have a uni degree, being a mere ex-tradie. (retired)

Andy Oz

And on the same day, the Australian provides a fact that renders the UNSW “paper” irrelevant and akin to “throwing the bones”. My alma mater is becoming a laughing stock and these dills are devaluing my degree, when they publish absolute rubbish.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/health-science/antarctic-sea-ice-at-record-levels/story-e6frg8y6-1226913708208#mm-premium

Andy Oz

Arctic Multi year sea ice is increasing and the Antarctic sea ice is massive. Can anyone say “albedo”? “Climate experts” are at a loss to explain this. Meteorologists, on the other hand, can.
http://www.boston.com/news/weather/weather_wisdom/2014/05/how_is_the_arctic_and_antarcti.html

M Seward

ACtually it is only SW Western Australia and Tasmania that have had their rainfall reduced which started in about 1960. WA has been otherwise attributed to land clearing. The rest on the continent is a bit to a lot wetter.

Radical Rodent

Maybe I’m a bit thick, but I thought that Australia had been experiencing unprecedented flooding that was all the fault of AGW?

Jaakko Kateenkorva

What’s the logic founding this hypothesis? The CO2 and/or it’s absorbed heat is unevenly distributed in the troposphere?

Jones

Would this also be the same voodoo maintaining the Himalayan glaciers?
I only ask………

urederra

. “This is why Antarctica has bucked the trend. Every other continent is warming, and the Arctic is warming fastest of anywhere on earth.”

Only that the Earth has not experienced warming in the last 13-17 years, depending on temperature data sets.

LevelGaze

RR –
Australia is, always was, and doubtless will continue to be a frustrating succession of droughts and floods.
It’s essentially just a big desert island with a green fringe and 90% of us sensibly live on the green fringe. I think you’d like it.
Of course, the Israelis figured out how to raise crops in a desert several decades ago…

Jaakko Kateenkorva

One could hastily deduct that CO2 is evenly distributed in the troposphere and so would it’s absorbed heat. What’s driving the winds again?

johnmarshall

i thought that GHG’s are supposed to increase storm events across the globe not reduce rainfall.
Those dammed models again. How many times do we have to repeat:- If models do not follow reality it is the model that is wrong not reality.

Cheshirered

Forget Mother Gaia, it seems CO2 rules the world.

sleeping bear dunes

I understand how you could develop theories about temperatures and precipitation, etc from analysis of ice cores, tree rings and lakes. But I have no clue how you would deduce wind speed from 1,000 years ago.

Jimbo

Does anyone know what caused the “variations in sea surface temperature in the eastern South Pacific Ocean”?

Nature Geoscience – Letter – 26 September 2010
Holocene changes in the position and intensity of the southern westerly wind belt
The position and intensity of the southern westerly wind belt varies seasonally as a consequence of changes in sea surface temperature. During the austral winter, the belt expands northward and the wind intensity in the core decreases. Conversely, during the summer, the belt contracts, and the intensity within the core is strengthened. Reconstructions of the westerly winds since the last glacial maximum, however, have suggested that changes at a single site reflected shifts throughout the entire southern wind belt1, 2, 3, 4. Here we use sedimentological and pollen records to reconstruct precipitation patterns over the past 12,500 yr from sites along the windward side of the Andes. Precipitation at the sites, located in the present core and northern margin of the westerlies, is driven almost entirely by the wind belt5, and can be used to reconstruct its intensity. Rather than varying coherently throughout the Holocene epoch, we find a distinct anti-phasing of wind strength between the core and northern margin over multi-millennial timescales. During the early Holocene, the core westerlies were strong whereas the northern margin westerlies were weak. We observe the opposite pattern in the late Holocene. As this variation resembles modern seasonal variability, we suggest that our observed changes in westerly wind strength can best be explained by variations in sea surface temperature in the eastern South Pacific Ocean.
http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v3/n10/abs/ngeo959.html

Here is a Spring observation. It’s Ozone!

Abstract – 2007
Using 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) data and in situ observations, the positive trend of Southern Ocean surface wind stress during two recent decades is detected, and its close linkage with spring Antarctic ozone depletion is established. The spring Antarctic ozone depletion affects the Southern Hemisphere lower-stratospheric circulation in late spring/early summer. The positive feedback involves the strengthening and cooling of the polar vortex, the enhancement of meridional temperature gradients and the meridional and vertical potential vorticity gradients, the acceleration of the circumpolar westerlies, and the reduction of the upward wave flux. This feedback loop, together with the ozone-related photochemical interaction, leads to the upward tendency of lower-stratospheric zonal wind in austral summer. In addition, the stratosphere–troposphere coupling, facilitated by ozone-related dynamics and the Southern Annular Mode, cooperates to relay the zonal wind anomalies to the upper troposphere. The wave–mean flow interaction and the meridional circulation work together in the form of the Southern Annular Mode, which transfers anomalous wind signals downward to the surface, triggering a striking strengthening of surface wind stress over the Southern Ocean.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4195.1

knr

‘By analysing ice cores from Antarctica, along with data from tree rings and lakes in South America, Dr Abram and her colleagues were able to extend the history of the westerly winds back over the last millennium.’ eh?
So what was the wind speed and direction for 1760 in the area ?
Of course they can do such thing , guess work and models all the way with more calls for funding , in reality it’s the authors homage to ‘the cause’ and letting others know there on side. Sooner of later if you doing real science you have to admit your basic claim was wrong when all the evidenced goes against you. Its only little children that stick to ‘because I said so ‘ and think up new crazy ideas to explain reality away.
But to be fair their not doing real science , their doing that very special climate ‘science’

Peter Miller

“The Southern Ocean winds are now stronger than at any other time in the past 1,000 years,”
So just who was measuring this, or is there a paleo-proxy for wind? So obviously “no” to both of those options, which just leaves a dodgy model, which nobody can prove right or wrong. I doubt even His Manniness would claim there was a proxy for the wind.
So in typical climate science fashion, even if a statement is obviously complete BS, but cannot be proven to be wrong, it therefore is right.
Sigh………………………….

Jimbo

Co2 causes warming in the Peninsula and cooling everywhere else. The IPCC models predicted more snow on Antarctica towards the end of this century. The only problem is that it’s happening now. Blame co2. The models predicted reduced sea ice extent in Antarctica. It is on an increasing trend since 1979 and near record high anomalies. Blame co2.

IPCC – Summary for Policy Makers AR5
Most models simulate a small decreasing trend in Antarctic sea ice extent, albeit with large inter-model spread, in contrast to the small increasing trend in observations. {9.4.3}
There is low confidence in the scientific understanding of the small observed increase in Antarctic sea ice extent due to the incomplete and competing scientific explanations for the causes of change and low confidence in estimates of internal variability in that region. {10.5.1}
Due to a low level of scientific understanding there is low confidence in attributing the causes of the observed loss of mass from the Antarctic ice sheet over the past two decades. {4.3.3, 10.5.2}
There is medium confidence that snowfall on the Antarctic ice sheet will increase, while surface melting will remain small, resulting in a negative contribution to future sea level from changes in surface mass balance. Rapid changes in outflow from both ice sheets combined will likely make a contribution in the range of 0.03 to 0.20 m by 2081-2100. {13.3.3, 13.4.2-13.4.4, 13.5.1}

Swiss Bob

It’s amazing, CO2 and Global Warming appear to be universal cause of all the World’s problems, if only we could find an antidote then we’d all be living in Nirvana.

Meanwhile, Australia has been getting wetter in recent years and decades.
http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2014/05/11/australias-droughts-decreasing-contrary-to-warmists-claims/
But climate scientists these days don’t seem to be interested in facts!

thegriss

And of course, droughts have NEVER happened in Australia before.. Never-ever !!!
http://home.iprimus.com.au/foo7/droughthistory.html

Tim Hammond

Do they really, actually, truly believe that they can know what winds have been like over the past 1,000 years?
Seriously?

son of mulder

And maybe CO2 is causing “Wind Stilling” in the northern hemisphere.
http://www.knmi.nl/cms/content/89566/wind_stilling_over_the_continents_of_the_northern_hemisphere_in_the_last_30_years
Or maybe there is a oscillation between the 2 hemispheres tied to PDO and/or AMO or some chaotic resonance of the two. The total angular momentum of earth + atmosphere will vary in relationship to the moon and lesser extent sun and planets…but hey it must be CO2 causing the observations because what else? (;>)

Alan the Brit

Anybody know the name of this 1000 year old Aboriginie they have been consulting? Are they sure his memory isn’t failing him/her? Did he/she know Skippy’s ancestors, & could they also tell people, “What’s that Skippy? The children are trapped down the old mine shaft & the ground water is rising fast, & the bank robbers hid the loot there too before they switched cars & drove back into town to avoid suspicion?” Clever kangaroo, was Skippy!

Berényi Péter

This is the thing she is talking about.
Nature Climate Change (2014)
doi: 10.1038/nclimate2235
Evolution of the Southern Annular Mode during the past millennium
+ Supplementary Information
Nerilie J. Abram, Robert Mulvaney, Françoise Vimeux, Steven J. Phipps, John Turner & Matthew H. England

“We find that the SAM has undergone a progressive shift towards its positive phase since the fifteenth century, causing cooling of the main Antarctic continent at the same time that the Antarctic Peninsula has warmed.”

15th century, right.

John Of Cloverdale WA, Australia

What is the next scare? Maybe Magnetic Reversals are caused by CO2. Or has that been covered? If not, Geophysicists out there, this is your is the basis for your next grant.

Global warming is keeping Australia dry. Yet the decline in sea level in 10/11 was (by one account) attributed to all the water being stored in the continent of Australia. The only way it could have gotten ON the continent is through precipitation. And yet 10/11 was supposed to be a very hot year.
I think that calls for a jabberwocky alert.

ddpalmer

Wasn’t it only a year or two ago that they were fudging the data to show that ALL of Antarctica was warming?
Now that they have had to admit that most of Antarctica isn’t warming, up pops an explanation for how the lack of warming is actually caused by CO2.
It is like a game of Whack-a-Mole. Every time the CAGW crowd has to admit that actual real science and data shows one of their poster children of AGW is a lie, they pop up a new theory that ‘proves’ with magic trees and computer models that it is worse than we thought.

Ulric Lyons

The Southern Annular Mode seems to have gone positive since the mid 1990’s, the same time as the AO/NAO started going negative. It takes a decline on forcing for the AO/NAO to go negative.

FrankK

The only thing “strengthened by carbon dioxide” is the funding for this nonsense. Another Aussie University looses its credibility. Unbelievable.! I also love the “researchers have found” bit.

cynical1

“Do they really, actually, truly believe that they can know what winds have been like over the past 1,000 years?
Seriously”?
Of course they do.
They read the tree rings…

They are describing the more zonal jets of the (now past) warming period.
The jets are now more meridional so the paper is already out of date.
The change from zonal to meridional occurred DESPITE increasing CO2 whereas it is not long since they said the more zonal jets were BECAUSE of increasing CO2.
Total confusion in the AGW camp.

Berényi Péter

There is not much upward trend in AAO since 1979 (+0.08/decade), none in the last 17 years (-0.06/decade).
note: AAO is the same as SAM

“We find that the SAM has undergone a progressive shift towards its positive phase since the fifteenth century, causing cooling of the main Antarctic continent at the same time that the Antarctic Peninsula has warmed.”
That will be the recovery from the LIA as the recovery led to progressively more zonal and poleward jets.
Since the commencement of the apparent shift predates the industrial revolution how can it be caused by our emissions of CO2 ?
I have previously mentioned that a tighter zonal flow around the Antarctic tends to wear away the Antarctic Peninsula.
In contrast the Peninsula tends to grow when the jets are more meridional since the landmass distribution favours outflow of cold air in that direction.

Chuck L

Pfft on you skeptics! Everyone knows that the Aborigines had a network of anemometers set up 1000 years ago

hunter

Those who have pointed out that climate obsession thinking is very similar to naive religious thinking are once again proven to be correct.

LewSkannen

That is bizarre! As soon as I heard this I said to myself – “I bet CO2 has something to do with this.”
And I was RIGHT!!!!!!!!
What are the odds!?!?

Bill Illis

Here is a series on longer-term temperature measurements for Antarctica.
A sample of stations to April 2014, more-or-less the most recognized ones – Amundsen-Scott at the south pole, Vostok the coldest weather station on Earth at -55.2C, Mawson on the coast at 70S, and Faraday on the Antarctic Peninsula which was warming until 1985 or 2000 but is not any longer, just like the Antarctic sea ice.
http://s11.postimg.org/y4hh29cn7/Amund_Scott_April14.png
http://s18.postimg.org/s5lxefai1/Vostok_April14.png
http://s23.postimg.org/edkk79bor/Mawson_April14.png
http://s28.postimg.org/r41s9qt3x/Faraday_April14.png
The continent is flat or cooling, the Peninsula was warming until the last two decades.
Southern Ocean temperatures are also flat, or exhibit some long-term cycles. It has really started cooling down in the last decade. If one matched up the Peninsula temps with the southern ocean temps, one might see that we started putting stations here at the bottom of the cycle which has now started on a down cycle.
Southern Ocean SSTs back to 1854.
http://s28.postimg.org/vxwnmnp3x/iersstv3b_180_180_E_55_70_N_na.png
How about a longer period Here is the high resolution (nearly every year) isotope record from Law Dome (thanks to Steve McIntyre for digging this important ice core record out of the dustbins. They did not want you to see the MWP. It is still an unpublished series although all of the GHG trends from the core are available).
The study is the usual pro-AGW made-up science-fiction again.
http://climateaudit.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/ld2_1kyr1.png
http://climateaudit.files.wordpress.com/2010/04/lawdome.gif

michael hart

“Will this wind…”