Back in 2009, it was 200 million climate refugees according to this article in the NYT:
There could be 200 million of these climate refugees by 2050, according to a new policy paper by the International Organization for Migration, depending on the degree of climate disturbances.
Now the claim is up to 5 times that by 2050 in the space of five years, at this rate of increase, the entire world population will be ‘climate refugees’ by 2050.
From Smithsonian Magazine by Jerry Adler:
The Reality of a Hotter World is Already Here
As global warming makes sizzling temperatures more common, will human beings be able to keep their cool? New research suggests not
The various environmental effects of greenhouse gases are potentially devastating, as we have often heard. The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, made public in March, underscored the danger of widespread hunger, even starvation, resulting from crop failures. Other health threats have been enumerated by Robert Repetto, a United Nations Foundation economist, who says climate change will intensify smog, leading to “increased outbreaks of asthma and allergies,” and “exacerbate vector-borne diseases such as hantavirus, West Nile virus, Lyme disease and dengue fever.” Repetto also worries about the “extreme weather events” that some researchers say climate change will engender. “Biological systems and engineering systems are all designed for a range of climatic conditions,” he says. “Within those limits, we’re OK, …but outside those limits, the damage increases rapidly and becomes catastrophic, and we’re going outside those limits.” Heat waves themselves pose a health risk, especially for young children and the elderly—and world-class athletes. Temperatures at the Australian Open in January reached 104 degrees for four consecutive days, a condition that one tennis player called “inhumane” after competitors collapsed on the court.
(Gosh, it gets hot in Australia in summer? Who knew?)
…
There may be hordes of climate refugees, fleeing homes on islands and coasts made uninhabitable by climate change—anywhere from 25 million to 1 billion people by 2050, according to the International Organization for Migration. Even people who don’t have to move will experience a bewildering sense of dislocation as the environment changes around them—as Northern winters start to be measured in weeks rather than months. Glenn Albrecht, an Australian philosopher, coined the term “solastalgia” for this emotion, a kind of homesickness you can experience without leaving home.
“We will see the emergence of novel climates, environments we’ve not seen before in human times, and the extinction of others, around the Arctic and in high Alpine regions,” says Laurence C. Smith, a professor of geography at UCLA and author of The World in 2050. Smith says cities, industry and agriculture may benefit in places such as Canada and Scandinavia, though at some cost in psychological and cultural disruption. “Very bitterly cold winters will be less common in some places,” he says, “but instead of a nice blanket of white snow, they will have slush.” And people who move north for the weather, or for jobs that may open up as the Arctic melts, will discover that climate change doesn’t make the winter nights any shorter.
Climate change adaptation is a natural thing. Look at folks in the UK and Scandinavia with central heating. A little extra warmth WON’T result in any of them, or other Europeans for that matter, moving anywhere.
The only people that MIGHT move are people on low lying islands. Sometimes it’s not due to rising sea levels by themselves.
Low lying Island degradation.
Sand mining and gravel extraction for the construction industry
Explosive blasting to construct boat channels
Impacts of recreational divers
Unsustainable over-extraction of fresh water from the lens
Siltation from dredging for island harbour construction
Water pollution
For that matter who is the world’s first climate refugee. Here are a few contenders for the throne.
There are many examples of Holocene climate changes occurring before 1850, when some groups of people would have been forced to move from their geographic locations. One example is the desertification of a large part of North Africa.
We already have climate refugees. they are called snowbirds. they fly south for the winter to escape the cold. immigration laws force them to fly north in the summer.
http://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/no-more-escaping-this-year-s-canadian-winter-for-some-snowbirds-1.1751762
Jimbo says:
April 30, 2014 at 7:03 am
…
Mauritius is an 787 sq. mile island with a population of about 1.3M (about 1,650 / sq. mile). Looks like tourism is a big part of their GDP.
Good points regarding Low lying Island degradation.
There is a famous quote by the german Nazi Goebbels (or someone) it went something like, “Just tell the people that they are under attack and they will go fight for you and die, just tell them that there is an enemy at the door and they will do anything that you tell them to do.” Something like that, not an exact quote, but it is very similar to climate alarmism, tell the people that the climate/weather is attacking them and they will obey you and give you their money.
Leo Norekens says:
April 30, 2014 at 6:14 am
“1 billion climate refugees”
– Name one.
You get my vote for the best comment; it’s actually quite to the point. The global warming alarmists have been at this for about 35 years now (1980-today), so we’ve got another 36 years to go 2014-2050. In other words, we’re already nearly halfway along in the devastating warming they predict. Certainly some humans would already be being forced to adapt by now.
So, as you asked: Name one of those “1 billion climate refugees.” Just one……..(sound of crickets as we wait).
On the other hand, I could name several million who have already been forced to adapt to the escalating electricity, gasoline, and heating oil prices that have been directly caused by the policies encouraged those same alarmists over the past 35 years. Just haul out a British, Australian, or particularly, California phone book and start reading.
The second comment worth a star or two was the one pointing out that we all need a religion and, lacking faith in any other, Leftists have seized on the religion of global warming. And who wouldn’t want 25 million to 1 billion potential acolytes?
I think these guys really understand “lie and exaggerate”. Don’t tell a little lie, tell a whopper.
By the year 2050 the people who profit off such scare-mongering will definitely be feeling the heat, if a certain version of the afterlife proves true.
Jim Brock says:
April 30, 2014 at 6:32 am
“….or maybe the tax and regulate philosophy.”
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
This is how the liberal disease is spread. They vote for all those freebies and why they get taxed to death for them (because they are never free) they leave the feces hole they created to where they can breath again but then they start over demanding more of the same.. They never stop to think that it was their own behavior that caused the mess in the first place.
Keeping up with the constant stream of BS propaganda is becoming very tiring.
I suspect that’s the intent…
Bill H says:
This is how the liberal disease is spread. They vote for all those freebies and why they get taxed to death for them (because they are never free) they leave the feces hole they created to where they can breath again but then they start over demanding more of the same.. They never stop to think that it was their own behavior that caused the mess in the first place.
I see this here in NC, and in other places that have a lot of people moving in from NY and CA. The people move here often to get away from the high taxes & cost of living of the places they leave, then proceed to try to make it just like where they left, with no clue that what they want to do is the exact reason those other places have become the hellholes they left.
Never could understand people.
Wealth redistribution can happen in several ways. One way is to tax wealthy countries and send the money to poor countries. Another way is to bring people from the poor countries through immigration and redistribute them in wealthy countries. I don’t think it is too big of a stretch to think that there are people who will use “climate refugee status” as a manufactured reason to increase third world migration to more developed countries. Is the one billion figure a prediction or a goal?
Smithsonian is a museum publication. As such they exhibit excellent HINDsight. A little ‘near-sightedness’ might help them view the recent history of climate refugee forecasts (i.e. Vanuatu is not yet uninhabited).
I will be a “climate refugee” much earlier than 2050, if this unscientific climate science continues to capture more and more politicians, newspapers, organisations and normal enterprises in my home country.
I always like reading the comments on these wacky articles at the original article. Of course, you can tell when they do not “want to hear” what the readers have to say when the comments are off. Such as this story at the NYT. The original writers also know when their articles are garbage because the comments are off so no one can refute.
Yep, those Aussie summers, like the two great killers 1895-6 and 1938-9. That second one was a La Nina! It’s amazing what climate could do before it had all those fancy forcings. And don’t get me started on the “extremes” of 1895 in my region. If you want to know how to turn a nice coastal strip into a tinderbox by late winter…just check out Northern NSW in 1895. Deluges then four months of desert conditions. Just add some inland westerlies by winter’s end. And they tried to tell you our spring fires last year were unique!
By the way, leaving aside the 1908 heatwave in Melbourne, someone did a reading down there of 177 degrees F during Feb 1851. Hard to know for sure what the exact temps were at the time. People had their minds on other things – since the greatest known inferno in world history was going on across Victoria.
Presumably all achieved without “forcings”.
Er, I meant 117 degrees. Not even Flannery could go to 177. Although…
Doooom and glooooom. Here is a small sample of the other side. The less poverty, the more resilience. Global fertility rate is plunging, the biosphere has been greening in recent decades, people enjoy higher standards of living today. What is the problem with these fools?
“homes on islands and coasts made uninhabitable by climate change“.
“Uninhabitable coasts”? As if.. Humans have always inhabited the coasts and we always shall.
The Smithsonian Institition, like NASA, NOAA are US Government entities. These organizatios and others have been hijacked by those espousing “Progressive” political idealism. CAGW is their avenue to power.
The persons in control of these organizations have falsified(adjusted) historic temperature data and they’ve promulgated fear..
They lie right to us,
“Climate Change” is a means to an end
Trash this crap
Yes this is bs propaganda and you can find more bs propaganda by reviewing other articles tagged as climatology & glowbull warming. They do have some additional non propaganda articles tagged under weather & climate change etc if you look around.
Smithsonian has some good content though, I don’t know if you saw this…
Explore Every Tornado Across the United States Since 1980 Through This Interactive Map | Science | Smithsonian
http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/explore-every-tornado-across-united-states-1980-through-interactive-map-180950243/
Jimbo says:
April 30, 2014 at 7:07 am
Jimbo, you are a treasure — that was fun!
Thanks to Richard Tol for his factual contribution which puts the fantasy claims of this magazine into their proper perspective.
Martin Clark up-thread mentioned someone
going on about “isn’t it hot” when the temperature was 34 deg.
C. and the RH 50%.
That person should try the stewpot climate of Houston in the
summertime. Afternoon relative humidity is typically 60%,
and afternoon high temperatures frequently exceed 40 deg.
centigrade.
While it’s not true that steamy, sticky summertime Washington, D.C.
was once considered a “hardship post” by the British diplomatic
service, that was true for Houston. Embassy personnel
got extra compensation, and a special allowance to purchase
appropriate clothing for the climate.
One hopes that the author of the Smithsonian article thoroughly washed his conclusions before sharing them considering from whence he pulled them,