Smithsonian Magazine Claim: ' up to 1 billion climate refugees by 2050'

Back in 2009, it was 200 million climate refugees according to this article in the NYT:

There could be 200 million of these climate refugees by 2050, according to a new policy paper by the International Organization for Migration, depending on the degree of climate disturbances.

Now the claim is up to 5 times that by 2050 in the space of five years, at this rate of increase, the entire world population will be ‘climate refugees’ by 2050.

From Smithsonian Magazine by Jerry Adler:

The Reality of a Hotter World is Already Here

As global warming makes sizzling temperatures more common, will human beings be able to keep their cool? New research suggests not

The various environmental effects of greenhouse gases are potentially devastating, as we have often heard. The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, made public in March, underscored the danger of widespread hunger, even starvation, resulting from crop failures. Other health threats have been enumerated by Robert Repetto, a United Nations Foundation economist, who says climate change will intensify smog, leading to “increased outbreaks of asthma and allergies,” and “exacerbate vector-borne diseases such as hantavirus, West Nile virus, Lyme disease and dengue fever.” Repetto also worries about the “extreme weather events” that some researchers say climate change will engender. “Biological systems and engineering systems are all designed for a range of climatic conditions,” he says. “Within those limits, we’re OK, …but outside those limits, the damage increases rapidly and becomes catastrophic, and we’re going outside those limits.” Heat waves themselves pose a health risk, especially for young children and the elderly—and world-class athletes. Temperatures at the Australian Open in January reached 104 degrees for four consecutive days, a condition that one tennis player called “inhumane” after competitors collapsed on the court.

(Gosh, it gets hot in Australia in summer? Who knew?)

There may be hordes of climate refugees, fleeing homes on islands and coasts made uninhabitable by climate change—anywhere from 25 million to 1 billion people by 2050, according to the International Organization for Migration. Even people who don’t have to move will experience a bewildering sense of dislocation as the environment changes around them—as Northern winters start to be measured in weeks rather than months. Glenn Albrecht, an Australian philosopher, coined the term “solastalgia” for this emotion, a kind of homesickness you can experience without leaving home.

“We will see the emergence of novel climates, environments we’ve not seen before in human times, and the extinction of others, around the Arctic and in high Alpine regions,” says Laurence C. Smith, a professor of geography at UCLA and author of The World in 2050. Smith says cities, industry and agriculture may benefit in places such as Canada and Scandinavia, though at some cost in psychological and cultural disruption. “Very bitterly cold winters will be less common in some places,” he says, “but instead of a nice blanket of white snow, they will have slush.” And people who move north for the weather, or for jobs that may open up as the Arctic melts, will discover that climate change doesn’t make the winter nights any shorter.

Read more: http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/reality-hotter-world-already-here-180951172/#AaO2xDr61G6Dx344.99

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Patrick

Funny! The Auatralian Open is held in the middle of a very large city, in a stadium that resembles a tin, with high sides and a semi-covered roof exposing the central courts sorrounded with lots of steel, concrete, asphault and buildings to soak up all that sunlight during our, typically, hot summers. Yup! When it gets to 104F, in summer, I too don’t play tennis!

Louis

“…as Northern winters start to be measured in weeks rather than months.”

They say that like it’s a bad thing. Where can I sign up?

I was on the Global Cooling Team before I knew there was one. I would go with 1 Billion Dead and if someone measure the number of farm animals in a ratio to that, they will be dead or dying.
Global cooling of the proportion we Are going to see is bring world wide drought and severe longer winters which is creating a shortage of crops for humans and feed for animals. California and the Dakota Ranchers have had to let cattle go to Market less they die in the fields. Add to that a lost of over 20,000 head of cattle in South Dakota on 4 October 2014 to a snow blizzard which I personally experience.
Paul

The vast bulk of the world’s population live in the hotter latitudes.
http://static02.mediaite.com/geekosystem/uploads/2010/08/world-pop-latitude.png
So if the world warms, much more of it will be in the temperature range that is currently most favoured. Even if a warming did trigger migration – and there is absolutely no sign of it long after its predicted start date – there would be much larger comfortable areas of Earth for them to move into. IOW, in spite of the disruption, the warming would be remarkably beneficial. A cooling, on the other hand, would shrink the comfortable zone, and could get very nasty indeed.

knr

Of course 2050 is a ‘usefully’ long time away , so by ‘lucky chance ‘ they can claim that although there is no sign of it happing now, it ‘will in the future’ knowing that they will not be around to be reminded of their BS claims when time runs out.
Normal pratice for climate ‘science ‘

Christopher Hanley

Temperatures at the Australian Open in January reached 104 degrees [40C] for four consecutive days …
========================================
‘The hottest temperature ever recorded was a sweltering 45.6 degrees [114F] centigrade in January ’39, during a 4-day heat wave’: http://australian.open-tennis.com/melbourne-tennis-australian-open/

Txomin

The International Organization for Migration has become very, very grant-worthy.

it’s global warming smut, giving a whole new meaning to “Deep Climate”

arfurhaddon

Same old, same old. They’ve just upped the numbers and write with even more fake certainty.
Let’s not forget the UN’s false claim from 2005, when they said there would be 50m climate refugees by 2010.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/04/15/the-un-disappears-50-million-climate-refugees-then-botches-the-disappearing-attempt/

Katherine

Even people who don’t have to move will experience a bewildering sense of dislocation as the environment changes around them—as Northern winters start to be measured in weeks rather than months.
Oh, does that mean children won’t know what snow is? <.<
This Jerry Adler doesn't seem to realize people travel to warmer climes to escape winter. There's even a whole tourist industry enabling the phenomenon. What a maroon. /Bugs Bunny

Steve

Throws dart. “Wow. 1 Billion”

Admad

Sorry, my BS meter imploded back there. Something to do with the “unprecedented” over-use of “could” I reckon.

Henry Galt.

… and … gasp … cats will mate with dogs ….

I’m working with a PhD candidate on this topic so I decided to trace the claim.
Adler in the Smithsonian cites the International Organization for Migration (IOM), presumably their 2009 paper that indeed has the numbers given.
IOM (2009) cites four papers: Jacobson (1988), Myers (1997, 2002) and Stern (2006).
Stern cites a presentation by Myers around 2002. Myers (2002) cites Myers (1997).
Myers (1997) does not estimate the number of climate refugees. Instead, he estimates the number of people at risk from sea level rise, without additional coastal protection (~160 million in 2050), and the number of people at risk of drought, again without adaptation (~50 mln in 2050).
Jacobson (1998) also does not estimate the number of climate refugees. Instead, she estimate the number of people at risk from sea level rise, without additional coastal protection; she does not give a number for 2050; she does give a number for 1 metre sea level rise: 50 mln.
In other words, IOM padded their reference list with duplicate estimates, reinterpreted the estimates, and multiplied the highest by five.

Lord Jim

A more likely headline: “Up to 1 billion empirically falsified climate change conjectures by 2050”

charles nelson

Smithsonian…that’s where the dinosaurs come to life and run around the corridors at night…right?

“As global warming makes sizzling temperatures more common … ”
There hasn’t been any for something like 17 years. I live in a place that is hot, but it has not been as hot since the turn of the century. The 90s were hotter. But maybe these people are so convinced that its hotter that they are succeeding in elevating their own temperature, eg engineering some sort of psychosomatic fever? Is there a name for this disorder?
I may have witnessed someone suffering from this, going on about “isn’t it hot” when it was a balmy 34C and 50% RH.

R2D2

I am working on a paper “Up to 5 billion climate refugees by 2030” (If you can’t beat them.. join them.)

Keith Willshaw

“…as Northern winters start to be measured in weeks rather than months.”
Bring it on – Its the end of April and my heating is still running !

The hottest temperature ecorded in Melbourne so far was 45.6 degrees C (114R) in January 1939. It too was a 4-day heat wave and there was a mass migration of Melbournians to the beaches where they all had a great day and cooled off in the water
I am sure all those people up there in Alaska are just waiting to get their hands a bit of this proffered Global Warming (if only there was any!!)

Yesterday night in (barely) subtropical Hervey Bay, the fall night time temperature crashed down to 70F. It was freezing cold, we had to close a window.
When shall we have to move, because of global warming?

Richard Tol
… In other words, IOM padded their reference list with duplicate estimates, reinterpreted the estimates, and multiplied the highest by five.
Chinese whispers… 🙂

Greg Goodman

Richard Tol : “In other words, IOM padded their reference list with duplicate estimates, reinterpreted the estimates, and multiplied the highest by five.”
Wow. Looks like someone should do a psychology paper about global warming “ideation”.

Jer0me

Ha! Up in the tropics of Oz it will drop to 14 C this week at night. It’s not even close to winter yet, either. I’m very glad I left frigid Sydney behind. It will get as low as 10 C this week.

Greg

“Even people who don’t have to move will experience a bewildering sense of dislocation as the environment changes around them—as Northern winters start to be measured in weeks rather than months. ”
Yeah, right. And next year we’ll be reading NH winters (may be ) COULD BE (perhaps) as short a few days “as the world continues to warm” (like it has (or not, perhaps) in the last decade and a half).
We must act NOW.
Seriously this sort of stupid BS is becoming a pathology.

Richard Tol said
‘…reinterpreted the estimates’
Lots of other ‘re’ words also come to mind as regards to some of these reports.
Revise. Re-evaluate. Revamp.
However proper’ re-search’ is not one of them
tonyb

Londo

I have to say that when I hear these things nowadays, I get sad. All these great institutions are beginning to look like mediaeval priests sounding the whip och inquisition. Chastise the heretics and scarring the rest with the fire of hell on earth.
I’m not a believer myself but by the looks of it, a lot of the so called liberals out there are clearly craving for whatever religion they can get their hands on as long as they can point a finger at anybody and let the the thin air of the high moral ground let their heads spin.

pat

the folks from Brighton, England might prefer to be CAGW refugees than to live under the Greens!
note: butties/butty is english slang for sandwiches/sandwich:
26 April: UK Daily Mail: Ian Birrell: Lunacy of the town that turned green: A ban on bacon butties. Traffic-calming sheep. Transgender toilets. Sounds like a send-up? In fact, it’s the all-too-real story of how Britain’s loopiest party took over Brighton…
Brighton Pavilion is the Green Party’s only seat in Parliament
Idealism and environmental improvements have gone down well
Other stunts like Meat-free Monday and transgender toilets, not so much
In addition, the party’s inexperience in power has left them struggling
A rising tide of splits, stunts, U-turns, gaffes and divisive industrial disputes has alienated voters and angered businesses here in a city better known for its bohemian tolerance, while outlandish proposals for a ban on bacon butties and plans to use sheep for traffic calming have earned only derision.
The serious side of politics has suffered, too – a demonstration of the dangers that await when protest parties win power. A doomed attempt to impose the biggest council tax rise in the country ended with humiliating warnings that Whitehall could be forced to take over the Town Hall.
Welcome to the Green Republic of Brighton and Hove…
At last month’s council meeting, a Green member accused a former Tory leader of wearing a swastika. She wasn’t. It turned out to be a traditional Irish emblem on her necklace…
Graham Cox, a Tory councillor and former head of Sussex CID, said the Green council promoted an image of Brighton as a place of protest and alternative lifestyles that welcomed the homeless.
‘They don’t care about things like cutting the grass and keeping flower-beds tidy, so our town is getting scruffier. They are basically ***hippies who don’t give a damn about such things.’…
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2613905/Lunacy-town-turned-green-A-ban-bacon-butties-Traffic-calming-sheep-Transgender-toilets-Sounds-like-send-In-fact-real-story-Britains-loopiest-party-took-Brighton.html

Edohiguma

I’m amazed that they’re basically saying that evolution doesn’t exist and that all humans are essentially stupid and can’t adapt to anything.
The homo sapiens has adapted to this non-linear, chaotic system called “climate” for almost 200,000 years. Successfully so. There are humans everywhere. In every single climate zone.
And before the homo sapiens the early hominids have done the same. They have adapted. Not to mention all life on the planet. Life has gone through extinction phases were almost all of it was wiped out, yet, a few lifeforms always prevailed and survived. They adapted.
I wonder what life on this planet will do with “global warming”. Hmm… It can’t be that humans, other animals and plants will adapt, right? I mean, that’s not possible, right? The whole thing of how hominids survived the Ice Age is a myth, correct?
I’m seeing more and more similarities between the AGW crowd and creationists.

Bloke down the pub

Perhaps it will be like a ‘staycation’. The whole world will be climate migrants, we’ll just do it at home.

lee

let’s see– 50m – low ball figures, add 25% – multiply by the numbers of papers (4).
Voila 250 million affected.

DirkH

So, we should expect climate refugees from hot places.
And, we know that areas around the Sahara are greening due to increased CO2. (and other arid regions around the planet as well of course)
So I thought, can we already see this in agricultural yields. There’s little data about that; gapminder unfortunately has no time series of average yields per country.
But I found this from Algeria, which is one of the bigger countries in the area.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/algeria/cereal-yield-kg-per-hectare-wb-data.html
Big fluctuations, and a short series, only 8 years, but doesn’t look bad at all.
So the climate refugees, are they running away from big harvests?

JJB MKI

@Richard Tol (@RichardTol) on April 30, 2014 at 1:01 am
Thank you for the valuable detective work! It’s fascinating to see these kinds of claims traced back to source and learn how they can be distorted and bolstered by outright fabrication. It’s also sad that regardless of the truth about CAGW, once the shrill alarmism dies down, any reputation for reliability in large areas of science (particularly climate related) will have been left in tatters, having allowed themselves to be co-opted by special interest groups interested only in furthering a political agenda (be it humanitarian or selfish). It’s heartening to see a tiny minority like you risk a beating and take a stand against this.
JB

Phil's Dad

“As global warming makes sizzling temperatures more common,…”. How’s that going then?
My family are climate refugees – generally to Florida – for two weeks every year. The rest of the time we put up with what we’re given and get on with it.

thingadonta

I’m really worried about the world class athletes, having to compete for millions of dollars of prizemoney and sponsorships in tennis centres with multi million dollar roofs and free water coolers. How can they cope?

jones

They are all wrong. It’s even worse than that.
Although the refugee numbers are admittedly very low in this (very) modeled scenario.

RoHa

“Temperatures at the Australian Open in January reached 104 degrees for four consecutive days, a condition that one tennis player called “inhumane” after competitors collapsed on the court.”
In December of 1962 I went to take the second level of high school public examinations (Leaving, it was called in those far-off days) in the Wayville show grounds in Adelaide. This meant sitting in huge, steel roofed, agricultural exhibition buildings for several hours, several days in a row. No air conditioning, of course. You could get a drink of water, if you asked. Most of the time the temp was over 100F. One day it reached 111F. So don’t come whining to me about your measly 104.

RoHa

“There may be hordes of climate refugees, fleeing homes on islands and coasts made uninhabitable by climate change—”
Then again, there may not.

I used this graphic in a story I did on what the Smithsonian is pushing in K-12 ed. http://www.smithsonianconference.org/shout/vgf-global-competence/
It’s now a captured institution driven by a desire to alter beliefs and perceptions about how the world works, not conduct research into what actually is. It’s hyping on AGW and its effects is just an excuse to bring in the behavioral scientists for social engineering.

dccowboy

“And people who move north for the weather, or for jobs that may open up as the Arctic melts, will discover that climate change doesn’t make the winter nights any shorter.”
Well, at least there’s one thing that ‘climate change’ doesn’t affect….
This article is laughable. a range of 25 million to 1 billion says they have NO idea what is going to happen.

richard

Smithosian article
“His method had the elegance of all great science: He recruited a volunteer to stop her car at a green light and he counted the seconds until the driver behind honked the horn. He did this once a week from April to August, on days when the high temperature ranged from 84 degrees to 108, and he found that the thermometer accurately predicted how soon, and how many times, thwarted drivers would protest before the light changed”
Even on a winters day in London this happens.

Jared

I am looking for funding. My research objective is to confirm that 9 billion people will be climate weirding refugees by 2050. I will need a 2 million dollar grant to do my research as I will be making trips around the world on evil airplanes that use dirty oil. I plan on dropping historical temperatures by 5 degrees to make the current temps even worse than we thought. I just need a few million in grants to pay for my data adjustments so that they fit more inline with CO2. This will be a robust research campaign by me.

Leigh

http://joannenova.com.au/2014/03/dennis-jensen-mp-calls-for-audit-on-the-bom-and-csiro-data/
The Australian temperature records are not what they appear to be.
The BOM who controls, alters and substitute them flatly refuses to open them up to an independant audit.
Why?
Jo Nova and a hell of a lot of others has been on their case for years to hand them over.
So far with zero success.
The latest is a parliamentary request by mp dr Jenson.
http://joannenova.com.au/2012/07/boms-new-data-set-acorn-so-bad-it-should-be-withdrawn-954-min-temps-larger-than-the-max/

mem

I knew one of the founding writers for the Smithsonian. He used to write many of the science articles then took on, “Around the Mall and Beyond” which was a regular piece he did until he died. He was an ex WW2 pilot who married an Aussie. I don’t think Teddy would have been very impressed with this bit of writing at all, as he was a stickler for back up figures How silly for the Smithsonian to get caught into the global warming group political think. Really, I used to believe the Smithsonian was the bees knees as far as accurate popular science went too. Oh dear ,another great icon hits the dust.

klem

“25 million to 1 billion people by 2050”
In 2050 there are supposed to be 9 billion people in the world. So that is a range of .28% to 11% of the population. That’s a 40 fold range. Pretty big range.
Methinks this study lacks a bit of academic rigor. Lol!

Really, I used to believe the Smithsonian was the bees knees as far as accurate popular science went too. Oh dear ,another great icon hits the dust.

The Smithsonian is much better than this, and will be again. At the moment Apocalyptic FeverTM has temporarily taken hold of scientific institutions. But it is only temporary.

Andrew

“And people who move north for the weather, or for jobs that may open up as the Arctic melts, will discover that climate change doesn’t make the winter nights any shorter.”
Bitch, please! There’s NOTHING that global warming / climate change / airborne plant food doesn’t do, or can’t be blamed for, or hasn’t been speculated as a contributor to.

John

changes in the political climate will cause more dislocation then the real climate

Jimbo

The Reality of a Hotter World is Already Here
As global warming makes sizzling temperatures more common, will human beings be able to keep their cool? New research suggests not

As soon as I start reading I see this. The world’s surface hasn’t hotted up in 17 years. Are sizzling temperatures more common NOW or not? I maybe very wrong here but I thought that Homo sapiens are from tropical Africa and that most of the ‘global warming’ would take place at higher latitudes and towards the poles.

Tom in Florida

klem says:
April 30, 2014 at 3:44 am
“25 million to 1 billion people by 2050″
In 2050 there are supposed to be 9 billion people in the world. So that is a range of .28% to 11% of the population. That’s a 40 fold range. Pretty big range.
Methinks this study lacks a bit of academic rigor. Lol!
—————————————————————————————————————-
My thoughts are the same. “25 million to 1 billion” is a spread of 975 million. With accuracy like that, how could anyone doubt the rest of the story.