Back in 2009, it was 200 million climate refugees according to this article in the NYT:
There could be 200 million of these climate refugees by 2050, according to a new policy paper by the International Organization for Migration, depending on the degree of climate disturbances.
Now the claim is up to 5 times that by 2050 in the space of five years, at this rate of increase, the entire world population will be ‘climate refugees’ by 2050.
From Smithsonian Magazine by Jerry Adler:
The Reality of a Hotter World is Already Here
As global warming makes sizzling temperatures more common, will human beings be able to keep their cool? New research suggests not
The various environmental effects of greenhouse gases are potentially devastating, as we have often heard. The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, made public in March, underscored the danger of widespread hunger, even starvation, resulting from crop failures. Other health threats have been enumerated by Robert Repetto, a United Nations Foundation economist, who says climate change will intensify smog, leading to “increased outbreaks of asthma and allergies,” and “exacerbate vector-borne diseases such as hantavirus, West Nile virus, Lyme disease and dengue fever.” Repetto also worries about the “extreme weather events” that some researchers say climate change will engender. “Biological systems and engineering systems are all designed for a range of climatic conditions,” he says. “Within those limits, we’re OK, …but outside those limits, the damage increases rapidly and becomes catastrophic, and we’re going outside those limits.” Heat waves themselves pose a health risk, especially for young children and the elderly—and world-class athletes. Temperatures at the Australian Open in January reached 104 degrees for four consecutive days, a condition that one tennis player called “inhumane” after competitors collapsed on the court.
(Gosh, it gets hot in Australia in summer? Who knew?)
…
There may be hordes of climate refugees, fleeing homes on islands and coasts made uninhabitable by climate change—anywhere from 25 million to 1 billion people by 2050, according to the International Organization for Migration. Even people who don’t have to move will experience a bewildering sense of dislocation as the environment changes around them—as Northern winters start to be measured in weeks rather than months. Glenn Albrecht, an Australian philosopher, coined the term “solastalgia” for this emotion, a kind of homesickness you can experience without leaving home.
“We will see the emergence of novel climates, environments we’ve not seen before in human times, and the extinction of others, around the Arctic and in high Alpine regions,” says Laurence C. Smith, a professor of geography at UCLA and author of The World in 2050. Smith says cities, industry and agriculture may benefit in places such as Canada and Scandinavia, though at some cost in psychological and cultural disruption. “Very bitterly cold winters will be less common in some places,” he says, “but instead of a nice blanket of white snow, they will have slush.” And people who move north for the weather, or for jobs that may open up as the Arctic melts, will discover that climate change doesn’t make the winter nights any shorter.
Funny! The Auatralian Open is held in the middle of a very large city, in a stadium that resembles a tin, with high sides and a semi-covered roof exposing the central courts sorrounded with lots of steel, concrete, asphault and buildings to soak up all that sunlight during our, typically, hot summers. Yup! When it gets to 104F, in summer, I too don’t play tennis!
“…as Northern winters start to be measured in weeks rather than months.”
—
They say that like it’s a bad thing. Where can I sign up?
I was on the Global Cooling Team before I knew there was one. I would go with 1 Billion Dead and if someone measure the number of farm animals in a ratio to that, they will be dead or dying.
Global cooling of the proportion we Are going to see is bring world wide drought and severe longer winters which is creating a shortage of crops for humans and feed for animals. California and the Dakota Ranchers have had to let cattle go to Market less they die in the fields. Add to that a lost of over 20,000 head of cattle in South Dakota on 4 October 2014 to a snow blizzard which I personally experience.
Paul
The vast bulk of the world’s population live in the hotter latitudes.
http://static02.mediaite.com/geekosystem/uploads/2010/08/world-pop-latitude.png
So if the world warms, much more of it will be in the temperature range that is currently most favoured. Even if a warming did trigger migration – and there is absolutely no sign of it long after its predicted start date – there would be much larger comfortable areas of Earth for them to move into. IOW, in spite of the disruption, the warming would be remarkably beneficial. A cooling, on the other hand, would shrink the comfortable zone, and could get very nasty indeed.
Of course 2050 is a ‘usefully’ long time away , so by ‘lucky chance ‘ they can claim that although there is no sign of it happing now, it ‘will in the future’ knowing that they will not be around to be reminded of their BS claims when time runs out.
Normal pratice for climate ‘science ‘
Temperatures at the Australian Open in January reached 104 degrees [40C] for four consecutive days …
========================================
‘The hottest temperature ever recorded was a sweltering 45.6 degrees [114F] centigrade in January ’39, during a 4-day heat wave’: http://australian.open-tennis.com/melbourne-tennis-australian-open/
The International Organization for Migration has become very, very grant-worthy.
it’s global warming smut, giving a whole new meaning to “Deep Climate”
Same old, same old. They’ve just upped the numbers and write with even more fake certainty.
Let’s not forget the UN’s false claim from 2005, when they said there would be 50m climate refugees by 2010.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/04/15/the-un-disappears-50-million-climate-refugees-then-botches-the-disappearing-attempt/
Even people who don’t have to move will experience a bewildering sense of dislocation as the environment changes around them—as Northern winters start to be measured in weeks rather than months.
Oh, does that mean children won’t know what snow is? <.<
This Jerry Adler doesn't seem to realize people travel to warmer climes to escape winter. There's even a whole tourist industry enabling the phenomenon. What a maroon. /Bugs Bunny
Throws dart. “Wow. 1 Billion”
Sorry, my BS meter imploded back there. Something to do with the “unprecedented” over-use of “could” I reckon.
… and … gasp … cats will mate with dogs ….
I’m working with a PhD candidate on this topic so I decided to trace the claim.
Adler in the Smithsonian cites the International Organization for Migration (IOM), presumably their 2009 paper that indeed has the numbers given.
IOM (2009) cites four papers: Jacobson (1988), Myers (1997, 2002) and Stern (2006).
Stern cites a presentation by Myers around 2002. Myers (2002) cites Myers (1997).
Myers (1997) does not estimate the number of climate refugees. Instead, he estimates the number of people at risk from sea level rise, without additional coastal protection (~160 million in 2050), and the number of people at risk of drought, again without adaptation (~50 mln in 2050).
Jacobson (1998) also does not estimate the number of climate refugees. Instead, she estimate the number of people at risk from sea level rise, without additional coastal protection; she does not give a number for 2050; she does give a number for 1 metre sea level rise: 50 mln.
In other words, IOM padded their reference list with duplicate estimates, reinterpreted the estimates, and multiplied the highest by five.
A more likely headline: “Up to 1 billion empirically falsified climate change conjectures by 2050”
Smithsonian…that’s where the dinosaurs come to life and run around the corridors at night…right?
“As global warming makes sizzling temperatures more common … ”
There hasn’t been any for something like 17 years. I live in a place that is hot, but it has not been as hot since the turn of the century. The 90s were hotter. But maybe these people are so convinced that its hotter that they are succeeding in elevating their own temperature, eg engineering some sort of psychosomatic fever? Is there a name for this disorder?
I may have witnessed someone suffering from this, going on about “isn’t it hot” when it was a balmy 34C and 50% RH.
I am working on a paper “Up to 5 billion climate refugees by 2030” (If you can’t beat them.. join them.)
“…as Northern winters start to be measured in weeks rather than months.”
Bring it on – Its the end of April and my heating is still running !
The hottest temperature ecorded in Melbourne so far was 45.6 degrees C (114R) in January 1939. It too was a 4-day heat wave and there was a mass migration of Melbournians to the beaches where they all had a great day and cooled off in the water
I am sure all those people up there in Alaska are just waiting to get their hands a bit of this proffered Global Warming (if only there was any!!)
Yesterday night in (barely) subtropical Hervey Bay, the fall night time temperature crashed down to 70F. It was freezing cold, we had to close a window.
When shall we have to move, because of global warming?
Richard Tol
… In other words, IOM padded their reference list with duplicate estimates, reinterpreted the estimates, and multiplied the highest by five.
Chinese whispers… 🙂
Richard Tol : “In other words, IOM padded their reference list with duplicate estimates, reinterpreted the estimates, and multiplied the highest by five.”
Wow. Looks like someone should do a psychology paper about global warming “ideation”.
Ha! Up in the tropics of Oz it will drop to 14 C this week at night. It’s not even close to winter yet, either. I’m very glad I left frigid Sydney behind. It will get as low as 10 C this week.
“Even people who don’t have to move will experience a bewildering sense of dislocation as the environment changes around them—as Northern winters start to be measured in weeks rather than months. ”
Yeah, right. And next year we’ll be reading NH winters (may be ) COULD BE (perhaps) as short a few days “as the world continues to warm” (like it has (or not, perhaps) in the last decade and a half).
We must act NOW.
Seriously this sort of stupid BS is becoming a pathology.