Can the rest of America afford its Alice in Wonderland energy policies for? (Can California?)
Guest essay by Paul Driessen
California loves to be seen as the trendsetter on energy and environmental policies. But can we really afford to adopt their laws and regulations in the rest of America? Heck, can the once Golden State afford them itself? The path to hell is paved with good intentions, counter-productive policies – and hypocrisy.
The official national unemployment rate is stuck at 6.7% – but with much higher rates for blacks and Hispanics and a labor p labor participation rate that remains the lowest in 35 years. Measured by gross national product, our economy is growing at an abysmal 1.5% or even 1.0% annual rate.
Meanwhile, California’s jobless rate is higher than in all but three other states: 8.1% – and with far worse rates as high as 15% for blacks, Hispanics and inland communities. First the good news, then the insanity.
Citigroup’s Energy 2020: North America report estimates that the United States, Canada and Mexico could make North America almost energy independent in six years, simply by tapping their vast recoverable oil and natural gas reserves. Doing so would help lower energy and consumer prices, insulate the three nations from volatile or blackmailing foreign suppliers, and spur job creation based on reliable, affordable energy, says the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Driving this revolution is horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing. According to Citigroup, IHS Global Insights, the EIA and other analysts, “fracking” technology contributed 2.1 million jobs and $285 billion to the US economy in 2013, while adding $62 billion to local, state and federal treasuries! Compare that to mandates and subsidies required for expensive, unreliable, job-killing wind, solar and biofuel energy.
Fracking also slashed America’s oil imports from 60% of its total needs in 2005 to just 28% in 2013. It slashed our import bill by some $100 billion annually.
By 2020 the government share of this boom is expected to rise to $111 billion. By 2035, U.S. oil and natural gas operations could inject over $5 trillion in cumulative capital expenditures into the economy, while contributing $300 billion a year to GDP and generating over $2.5 trillion in cumulative additional government revenues. What incredible benefits! But there’s more.
A Yale University study calculates that the drop in natural gas prices (from $8 per thousand cubic feet of million Btu in 2008, and much more on the spot market, to $4.00 or so now) is saving businesses and families over $125 billion a year in heating, electricity, fertilizer and raw material feed stock costs.
The only thing standing in the way of a US employment boom and economic and industrial renaissance, says Citigroup, is politics: continued or even more oppressive anti-hydrocarbon policies and regulations.
Here’s the insanity. Fully 96% of this nation’s oil and gas production increase took place on state and private lands. Production fell significantly on federal lands under President Obama’s watch, with the Interior Department leasing only 2% of federal offshore lands and 6% of its onshore domain for petroleum, then slow-walking drilling permits, according to the Institute for Energy Research.
The President continues to stall on the Keystone pipeline, while threatening layers of expensive carbon dioxide and other regulations, to prevent what he insists is “dangerous manmade climate change.” His EPA just adopted California’s expensive all-pain-no-gain rules for sulfur in gasoline, and the Administration and environmentalists constantly look to the West Coast for policy guidance.
Governor Jerry Brown says 30 million vehicles in California translate into “a lot of oil” and “the time for no more oil drilling” will be when its residents “can get around without using any gasoline.” However, that rational message has not reached the state’s legislators, environmental activists or urban elites.
California’s ruling classes strongly oppose drilling and fracking – and leading Democrats are campaigning hard to impose at least a long temporary ban, based on ludicrous claims that fracking causes groundwater contamination and even earthquakes and birth defects.
Meanwhile, California’s oil production represents just 38% of its needs – and is falling steadily, even though the state has enormous onshore and offshore natural gas deposits, accessible via conventional and hydraulic fracturing technologies. The state imports 12% of its oil from Alaska and 50% more from foreign nations, much of it from Canada, notes Sacramento area energy consultant Tom Tanton.
The record is far worse when it comes to electricity. The Do-As-I-Say state imports about 29% of its total electricity from out of state: via the Palo Verde nuclear power plant in Phoenix, coal-fired generators in the Four Corners area, and hydroelectric dams in the Southwest and Pacific Northwest, Tanton explains.
Another 50% of its electricity is generated using natural gas that is also imported from sources outside California. Instead, the Greener-Than-Thou State relies heavily on gas imported via pipelines from Canada, the Rockies and the American Southwest, to power its gas-fired turbines. Those turbines and out-of-state sources also back up its numerous unreliable bird-killing wind turbines.
It adds up to a great way to preen and strut about their environmental consciousness. They simply leach off their neighbors for 62% of their gasoline and 79% of their electricity, and let other states do the hard work and emit the CO2.
These foreign fuels power the state’s profitable and liberal Silicon Valley and entertainment industries – as well as the heavily subsidized electric and hybrid vehicles that wealthy elites so love for their pseudo-ecological benefits, $7,500 tax credits, and automatic entry into fast-moving HOV lanes.
Meanwhile, California’s poor white, black, Hispanic and other families get to pay $4.23 per gallon for regular gasoline, the second highest price in America – and 16.2 cents per kWh for residential electricity, double that in most states, and behind only New York, New England, Alaska and Hawaii.
However, the state’s eco-centric ruling classes are not yet satisfied. Having already hammered large industrial facilities with costly carbon dioxide cap-and-trade regulations, thereby driving more jobs out of the state, on January 1, 2015 they will impose cap-and-trade rules on gasoline and diesel fuels. That will instantly add at least 12 cents more per gallon, with the price escalating over the coming years.
Regulators are also ginning up tough new “low-carbon fuel standards,” requiring that California’s transportation fuels reduce their “carbon intensity” or “life-cycle” CO2 emissions by 10% below 2010 levels. This will be accomplished by forcing refiners and retailers to provide more corn-based ethanol, biodiesel and still-nonexistent cellulosic biofuel.
These fuels are much more expensive than even cap-tax-and-trade gasoline – which means the poor families that liberals care so deeply about will be forced to pay still more to drive their cars and trucks.
In fact, Charles River Associates estimates that the LCFS will raise the cost of gasoline and diesel by up to 170% (!) over the next ten years, on top of all the other price hikes.
In the meantime, China, India, Brazil, Indonesia, Germany and a hundred other countries are burning more coal, driving more cars and emitting vastly more carbon dioxide. So the alleged benefits to global atmospheric CO2 levels range from illusory and fabricated to fraudulent.
Of course, commuters who cannot afford these soaring prices can always park their cars and add a few hours to their daily treks, by taking multiple buses to work, school and other activities.
There’s more, naturally. Much more. But I’m out of space and floundering amid all the lunacy.
Can we really afford to inflict California’s insane policies on the rest of America? In fact, how long can the Left Coast afford to let its ruling classes inflict those policies on its own citizens?
Paul Driessen is senior policy analyst for the Committee For A Constructive Tomorrow (www.CFACT.org) and author of Eco-Imperialism: Green power – Black death.
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The sad thing is, despite the apparent lunacy of their policies, the liberal idealists have the upper hand on the political scene. They will continue to dominate politics as long as their socialist policies continue to appeal to the voters.
Once a person or congregation diverge on a singular pathway to la la land, expect more crazy. Follow at your peril mice – beware the Pied Piper! 🙂
Gradually cutting them off from outside deliveries of energy would force them to face their self-inflicted problems. But then their dysfunctional market offers particular profits.
I have a solution A friend of mine from Utah says we ought to re-subdivide the North American continent into three new countries using north south dividing lines. I used to think he was just silly but I am coming around. The new countries would consist of British Columbia, Washington, Oregon and California on the west with designated “International” travel corridors to the seaports. The second country would consist of everything east of the Mississippi and straight north to Lacrosse, then over to Green Bay, then up the middle of Lake Michigan, then over to Sudbery and North Bay, then straight north up to the Ontario-Quebec border to James Bay. I suspect Maine and our Maritime provinces might want to stick with the “Central” country, as they have values more attuned to the part west of the Mississippi and east of the Rocky Mountains and Sierra Nevada. Again, transportation corridors to the east would be a necessity for the Central country although it would have ocean access to the Arctic and Caribbean. This way, the west and east coasters can pass all the restrictive legislation they want, driving workers into the Central plains where we need people to support our economy and there is a fair bit of land that could be developed with good stewardship.
Never happen, but it makes for a great conversation late at night after taking care of our horses after a 50 mile endurance ride. ;-D
Big benefit for a lot of us Canadians since we would no longer need passports and export papers for our horses when we come south; and no restrictions on bringing goods back and forth. My friend was coming from Alaska last year and he had vegetables and fruit in his motorhome which he bought before leaving Alaska. When he got to the US border, they confiscated it as contraband since he had been in Canada a couple of days.
Who says it’s just California that has issues? We all do.
Just pulling a few chains. Off to the mountains to slide on some snow.
Have a great day.
You don’t have to be crazy to live in California,
but it helps!
Ba dum bum.
California has among the highest rates in unemployment and welfare. It’s high energy prices have driven out all the big server farms and destroying manufacturing. It pours freshwater down a river to help a saltwater fish (yes, it’s crazy), while farmers give up and vegetable and fruit prices rise.
Sure, follow California, all you other states… our whole nation will look like Detroit in less than a generation. We’ll be a great object lesson for the rest of the world.
Bingo! On a global scale man’s co2 output continues its upward trajectory, no matter what California or USA does. There are billions of people in the developing world who want cars, electricity etc.
I think sending our manufacturing jobs overseas did more for reducing oil imports than fraking has. But fraking has done far more than Big Solar and Big Wind to keep the lights on. Back to California – according to a recent poll 66% of them think they’re over-taxed. What ever they’re doing there isn’t working if the objective is voter satisfaction, but that is certainly not the objective.
Following Putin’s lead in Ukraine I’d not be surprised if in another 10 years Mexico doesn’t annex SoCal on the same basis – to protect the majority ethnic Mexicans living in California from tyranny of the few. And I expect the EU and the UN will support it.
Mr. Dreisson, I agree that California’s energy policies make no sense. And their renewables push will likely lead to rolling blackouts by about 2015 owing to lack of grid storage, since they are even too foolish to start construction the Eagle Crest pumped storage project that got federal approval back in 2009.
But do not rely on the Citigroup report concerning oil, or the Maugeri report from Harvard. They are both fatally factually flawed concerning technically recoverable reserves (at any price) and about fracked shale decline curves and recovery factors. Around 2020, we will be relying on 30% imported oil rather than the 60% it was or the 50% (or so) it now is. And then imports of petroleum will have to start going up again because of Bakken, Eagle Ford, and Barnett peak production from fracking in that time frame at current drilling rates.
And do not rely on horizontal drilling and fracking of California’s Monetery shale any time soon, which is about half of the US total TRR for oil (most gas shales are not in California, thank goodness). It is so folded and faulted that there are no long ‘horizontal’ stringers to be drilled. Vertical fracking doesn’t intersect enough pay to be economic even if the price of oil were to double or triple by 2020.(IMF is projecting double, plus emergence of true scarcity, due to global production peaking including unconventional Venezuela’s tar and Canada’s bitumen sands.)
The insanity in California is opposing something that for most of their shale deposits cannot be practically done anyway for geophysical reasons. Please read what the oil companies themselves say-Getty and Chevron would be good places to start as they both are very active in California.
“The only thing standing in the way of a US employment boom and economic and industrial renaissance, says Citigroup, is politics: continued or even more oppressive anti-hydrocarbon policies and regulations.”
So, Citigroup is the only major financial institution not salivating over cap and trade? Did they get cut out of it in California?
California’s energy policy makes perfect sense if one follows the money. Who benefits? Natural gas producers, the biggest, and just for one. Also, oil producers in California who would not benefit from fracking. Basic business principles of supply and demand and profit.
Go hippies: turn your golden state into a golden shower. See what happens.
“California’s ruling classes strongly oppose drilling and fracking – and leading Democrats are campaigning hard to impose at least a long temporary ban, based on ludicrous claims that fracking causes groundwater contamination and even EARTHQUAKES and birth defects.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-07/oklahoma-swamped-by-surge-in-earthquakes-near-fracking.html
http://earthquaketrack.com/p/united-states/oklahoma/recent
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2014/04/12/earthquake-oklahoma/7649531/
As I recall, Guv Brown’s goal is for 25% emission free power at some point down the road, perhaps by 2025, or something. He never says whether he means power generated in California or power consumed in California, which in his state’s case makes a big difference. Knowing weasel
Brown we have to assume he means generated in state or he simply doesn’t know (more likely).
Here in sunny, smogfree South Carolina, the 8 months of electricity production last reported indicated 57% nuclear power. As of today, two new nucler plants are being constructed and will go online within the next 30 months, and that will increase the percentage of nuclear generated electricity to a little over 75%. And there will be two more nuclear reactors down the road, probably built by Duke Power. That would increase the percentage of emission free power to over 90%.
Electric rates will not increase and no public taxes have been used in building any of these new reactors, all of which are expected to last over 70 years. Compared to South Carolina, California is using Stone Age technology, is raping their residents and is receiving Federal welfare from the rest of the country. What are the odds we can persuade California to secede?
“Regulators are also ginning up tough new “low-carbon fuel standards,” requiring that California’s transportation fuels reduce their “carbon intensity” or “life-cycle” CO2 emissions by 10% below 2010 levels. This will be accomplished by forcing refiners and retailers to provide more corn-based ethanol, biodiesel and still-nonexistent cellulosic biofuel.”
Or by not changing conduct at all and buying carbon offsets instead.
“Hippies” did scheme up that one.
Gunga Din says:
April 27, 2014 at 12:58 pm
========================================
(Messed up the blockquote. Sorry.)
Some have made the claim that as an existing technology begins to reach its limit there is a replacement in view or dimly viewed. As an example consider person power and walking, to horse power and riding, to gas and electric engines for power and transportation. Another: yelling across the back yard (they got bigger and people moved), to an operator saying number please, to simply speaking into the air and say call my shaman/pharmacist.
The federal and California politicians and other green loonies have plunked themselves into the midst of the processes of innovation, substitutions, and alternatives. Mostly their preferred solutions are a waste of money and time, and cause distortions. Being a wealthy country we will likely survive and then move on to one of the now obscure futures.
At one time California was a great state, then the crazy left took over. California has become a horrible state that in in debt, mismanaged, over taxed, and driving businesses away through excessive taxes and excessive expensive regulations.
Paul, you are thinking like a normal person, not a politician.
You have to realize that the government never runs out of money. When they need more they raise taxes. If they can’t raise taxes they raise fees. If they can’t do that they borrow money. When that runs out they just print more.
Talking about fiscal responsibility to a politician is like talking about sobriety to an alcoholic.
SMC says:
April 27, 2014 at 11:21 am
The sad thing is, despite the apparent lunacy of their policies, the liberal idealists have the upper hand on the political scene. They will continue to dominate politics as long as their socialist policies continue to appeal to the voters.
SMC,
Exactly right.
Mac
As a CA resident, I can attest that the Progressive energy policy out here is insane. Electricity prices are very high and going up at a high rate. Electricity reliability is on the verge of collapse, we will undoubtedly face brown/outs and rolling blackouts this summer if it does get significantly warm this summer. With the progressives and the progressive controlled EPA planning on instituting CCS technology, it will drive up carbon based energy another 80% over the already needlessly high rates in effect now.
Also, natural gas will not be cheap much longer if the war on coal is not stopped. With coal use down, demand for natural gas will go sky high, and with cheap coal competition out of the way, the price will escalate rapidly as well. This is the plan of the progressives… to make carbon based fuel so expensive, that the ridiculously high cost of windmill and solar generation will look cheap in comparison. The end result will be energy poverty, a weak economy, no middle class and much misery. Of course they will blame it on the oil and coal companies and other large businesses for being greedy and much of the population will buy into to it.
This is what the future holds if people continue to vote Progressives/Dems into office.
They will continue to dominate politics as long as their socialist policies continue to appeal to the voters.
We have moral socialists and economic socialists. The public prefers economic socialism over moral socialism.
SMC and Mac,
I think the Republicans need two things:
1) Better candidates. For example, having a candidate that compares his campaign to an etch a sketch does exactly generate enthusiasm.
2) Better ground game. Republicans believe “our guys just show up”. But even having 2% of your votes miss voting for whatever reason can change an election.
Dr Mark says:
April 27, 2014 at 12:43 pm
So fracking releases plate stress reducing the chances of a larger earthquake? Explain again how this is bad?
The California Model is not sustainable. It’s time for the other states to stop being enablers.