By Paul Homewood
As WUWT points out, John Holdren is one of many who have tried to link the cold winter in the USA this year to global warming.
In his White House video in January, he had this to say:
“A growing body of evidence suggests that the kind of extreme cold being experienced by much of the United States as we speak is a pattern that we can expect to see with increasing frequency as global warming continues….
We also know that this week’s cold spell is of a type there’s reason to believe may become more frequent in a world that’s getting warmer, on average, because of greenhouse-gas pollution.”
But is there any evidence that extreme cold winters are becoming more common, or, for that matter, more extreme?
First, let’s check the temperature trends for the CONUS in winter.
Clearly, on a national basis, recent winters have not been unusually cold. In the last 10 years, only three winters have been colder than the 1901-2000 mean. Moreover, no winters in recent years have come anywhere near to being as cold as some of the winters in the 1970’s, for instance, or earlier.
But this graph only tells half the story. As it covers the whole country, it could cover up regional extremes. As we know, this winter has seen particularly cold weather in Mid West and East, but warmer conditions out West. The result is that, to some extent, they cancel each other out.
So, is there a way we can isolate the warm from the cold, and see whether cold winters are becoming more extreme in just parts of the country?
There is actually a very simple method, and that is to use NOAA’s own Climate Extremes Index. This provides the percentage of the country which have had extreme temperatures (or precipitation, drought etc) during the year. As both above average and below average temperatures are shown separately, we can look at extreme cold weather on its own.
The graphs below cover the Winter months (Dec to Feb) only, with the first using mean monthly maximum temperatures, and the second minimums. The results seem pretty similar.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/cei/graph/1/12-02
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/cei/graph/2/12-02
It is abundantly clear that much less of the country has been affected by extreme cold this winter, and indeed other recent ones, when compared with the 20thC. There is also no trend towards cold winters becoming more common.
What is also interesting is that there does not seem to be much of a trend towards milder winters taking over. Only the winter of 2011/12 stands out in this respect, and there have been plenty of similar years previously.
There has been nothing unusual or unprecedented about this winter. And, as cold winters have become less frequent in the last couple of decades, there is absolutely no evidence to support Holdren’s claim that “this week’s cold spell is of a type there’s reason to believe may become more frequent in a world that’s getting warmer”.
Technical Stuff
NOAA give this definition for the (maximum temperature) index:
The U.S. CEI is the arithmetic average of the following five or six# indicators of the percentage of the conterminous U.S. area:
- The sum of (a) percentage of the United States with maximum temperatures much below normal and (b) percentage of the United States with maximum temperatures much above normal.
And their definition for “much above normal”:
In each case, we define much above (below) normal or extreme conditions as those falling in the upper (lower) tenth percentile of the local, period of record. In any given year, each of the five indicators has an expected value of 20%, in that 10% of all observed values should fall, in the long-term average, in each tenth percentile, and there are two such sets in each indicator
The Climate Extremes Index can be accessed at the link below. It covers temperatures, drought, rainfall and hurricanes, and can used on a seasonal or annual basis. There is also a regional section.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/cei/introduction
@DirkH
Sorry I forgot to tell you
I don’t do models
I use the observed data to do a best fit
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2013/02/21/henrys-pool-tables-on-global-warmingcooling/
I hope the sine wave is the best fit, otherwise things are not looking good for us
(looking at the blue line that is dropping)
let us hope my planets arrive in time to reverse the cooling, i.e
something strange will happen on the sun in 2016
I suspect the solar poles will cross over again.
Rob says
“Winters have gotten much less severe along east coast….”
While it is possible that some local areas may be having less sever winter conditions,for US as a whole , winters are cooling since 1998. I recently rechecked the NCDC/NOAA data and it showed winter cooling for all 9 climate regions since 1998 except the West.
United States the past winter was the 34th coldest since 1895 but Europe and Asia did not have a record cold , resulting in slight warming for the North Hemisphere as a whole for the 2013/2014 winter compared to the previous winter. North America is experiencing a cold cycle currently like they had 1895-1920 and again 1955-1979 and hence I see this cooler pattern to continue for several decades These cycles have nothing to do with global warming. Next winter for North America may be warmer compared to the cold one we just had because of the potential for a weak El Nino , but this could mean more winter storms in UK and Europe next winter as El Ninos sometime come with more negative AO days which periodically brings the colder weather from the east Arctic to UK and Europe .
RATES OF WINTER COOLING FOR THE LAST 17 WINTERS 1998-2014 TREND PER US CLIMATE REGIONS( PER NCDC/NOAA Climate at A Glance data set
OHIO VALLEY (CENTRAL) -2.5 F/decade
UPPER MIDWEST (EAST NORTH CENTRAL) -4.3
NORTH EAST -1.2
NORTH WEST -0.8
SOUTH -1.6
SOUTH EAST -0.5
SOUTH WEST -1.3
WEST +0.1
WEST NORTH CENTRAL(NORTHERN ROCKIES & PLA. -3.3
J says:
April 18, 2014 at 12:18 pm
>>>Mention of extremes is so subject to media manipulation, of tornadoes. That is why it is important for older people to speak out, and say I remember the big tornado outbreak in ’67, and for sites like Anthony’s to show the graphs how hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, droughts, are all in the historic record, and are not getting worse.<<<
Anthony has a lot of that sort of information arranged systematically, on this site. Look under the heading "Reference Pages" for the "Climatic Phenomena" and "US Weather-Climate" topics. Steve Goddard has also been making a practice of searching for relevant historical weather events worldwide. You need to explore a bit at http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/
Also on this site the commenter Jimbo posts lots of material, some of which would be relevant to the kind of thing you mention. Roger Pielke Jr. puts out a lot of information on weather disasters, and, although I am not very familiar with his site, you should be able to get systematic information there. Also, the links on this site under "Tools" could provide relevant information.
When I get into a discussion about extreme weather, say hurricanes, I now whip out my laptop and say, "Hmm. I think somewhere in here I have a graph of the past century's hurricanes (or tornadoes, or whatever)." Usually the graph doesn't support alarmism.
There are surely other sources of similar information, but having the data at hand sure beats saying, "Gee, I think I remember seeing that there's not really a trend".
Magma says:
April 18, 2014 at 11:39 am
Holdren says “cold spells”. Homewood shows Dec-Feb averages.
There is a difference.
Magma,
Indeed, there is a ‘difference’, Hot Stuff!
Holdren is an socialist seeking political and legal advantage for more taxation and government control of the private sector economy by spewing baseless AGW ‘speculation’.
Homewood is a rational citizen offering data and solid analyses thereof to refute the baseless AGW spew.
What a remarkable difference!
HenryP says:
April 18, 2014 at 3:25 pm
“@DirkH
Sorry I forgot to tell you
I don’t do models
I use the observed data to do a best fit”
That’s your model. Even the simple extrapolation of a linear trend is a model.
Yes true. If you take a sample from a large population and do a best fit it might also be called a model, I suppose
Holdren has a twin: “First, I asked Stephen Belcher, the head of the Met Office Hadley Centre, whether the recent extended winter was related to global warming. Shaking his famous “ghost stick”, and fingering his trademark necklace of sharks’ teeth and mammoth bones, the loin-clothed Belcher blew smoke into a conch, and replied,
“’Here come de heap big warmy. Bigtime warmy warmy. Is big big hot. Plenty big warm burny hot. Hot! Hot hot! But now not hot. Not hot now. De hot come go, come go. Now Is Coldy Coldy. Is ice. Hot den cold. Frreeeezy ice til hot again. Den de rain. It faaaalllll. Make pasty.’” –Sean Thomas, http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/100222487/when-it-comes-to-climate-change-we-have-to-trust-our-scientists-because-they-know-lots-of-big-scary-words/
Thanks, Paul. Good article.
It is good when you can prove your point even using NCDC public data.
I would like it if NCDC retook to updating their traditional graph. See the last revision at http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/global-land-ocean-mntp-anom/201101-201112.png
Mark Stoval;
“Does anyone here remember a single scientific prediction made by anyone on the alarmist side that turned out to be correct?”
Well….They did predict that; “more research is needed”…………
Cheers, Kevin
thatnitmisnot I love this ;>) now we just have to define it maybe a puppy’s toe scum “A Holdren”
Are the ncdc graphs above using the downward adjusted temperatures for the first half of the 20th century?
Re: Dust Bowl and Drought
1. In the 1930’s, all the reliable land surface temperature datasets show that it was significantly HOTTER than the average (for the period of about 1850 – 2014).
— However, high land surface temperatures were not the controlling driver of the “Dust Bowl” farming disaster — poor soil management/farming techniques were. Perhaps, (I don’t know) rainfall was less than average (it is normally pretty dry there in the summer, however). Even if rainfall WERE less than average, however, it was not the controlling driver of the “Dust Bowl.” In past years, under similar conditions, prairie grass-covered soil did not blow away.
2. In the 1950’s, all the reliable land surface temperature datasets show it was significantly COOLER than the average (for the period of about 1850 – 2014).
THAT farming disaster was caused by drought.
Eisenhower flies over drought area — January 17, 1957
by Weather Underground
3. Re: the Envirostalinist Anti-Farm Irrigation Exacerbation California Drought (i.e., to the extent the drought is affecting farmers: 1) it is not HEAT that is harming crops in CA; AND 2) there would be ample irrigation but-for Envirostalinist protect-the-whatever regulations diverting water)
In 1963, with 42 days with no rain, it had not been that dry in northern CA in 64 years…
“People will remember this drought… .” — not looking like it…
Jimbo says:
April 18, 2014 at 12:48 pm
Magma says:
April 18, 2014 at 11:39 am
Magma, you are digging a hole just like Holdren,
=========================================================================
No, he isn’t digging. He/she is Magma. Magma is melting a hole in the crust to let the heat out.
I hope Magma keeps dropping by as just seeing the name gives me a visual brain chuckle every time.
Steve and PA,
You guys are fired up over the AGW and CO2 misinformation. The CO2 myth is easy to bust – their computer model has been 100% wrong on every prediction . . nothing in the Universe of infinite variables can be 100% wrong or right unless it is pure fabrication and a lucky guess.
http://joannenova.com.au/2014/04/climate-change-believers-are-using-mediaeval-tactics-to-silence-debate-says-george-brandis/
Seems I recall that last year’s warmer-than-usual winter was supposed to be the harbinger of things to come.
Holdren: “A growing body of evidence suggests that the kind of extreme cold being experienced by much of the United States as we speak is a pattern that we can expect to see with increasing frequency as global warming continues….”
Warmists can grow evidence for anything if they want to. “Oh, you need instant evidence to prove —— (fill in the blank) causes global warming? Not a problem. Here you go.” We are now at the point that they can, without a hint of embarrassment claim there is evidence that global warming causes global cooling. In other words, there is nothing they can’t argue is caused by global warming. Or vice-versa (“Global warming is killing the polar bears!”) “Ludicrous” doesn’t begin to describe it.
You’ve all heard that correlation is not causation, but now we are to the point where virtually any correlation can be blamed on global warming. “Cold winters? Must be global warming.” And the press just copies it down and repeats it.
In the future people will look back at statements like the one above and laugh, unless of course the powers that be waste trillions to rescue the world from a problem that doesn’t exist. Then it won’t be so funny.
I was amazed at the manipulation of data/maps by the govt agencies (both USA and Canada Ice Service) as the Great Lakes freeze occurred. I was following it closely, and their chicanery seemed very consistent with manipulating what we could see/determine to get the desired effect of no big news of record events (like Lake Michigan frozen over completely) … Another line of data that supports my claim that Lake Michigan did indeed freeze over, but they covered it up (pun intended) … Chicago had its coldest winter in 140 years of record keeping as reported by the National Weather Service (average temperatures of Dec,Jan,Feb,Mar) was lowest ever. Another astounding data point was that on April 15th the Great Lakes ice cover was almost 2x greater than ever recorded previously at that date. The upper Midwest/central continent areas did indeed have an exceptional winter … and not just a couple cold fronts.
Yeah, funny that folks who claim; “the science is settled” also claim; “More research is needed”….
I honestly can’t recall the last government grant that promised “more research” about Ohm’s law…..
Cheers, Kevin.
Of course the government would announce this nonsense to uphold their beliefs, and not face the fact Northern America and Canada would suffer most from extra cold winters. I hope that you don’t experience any more extra cold winters for your health mainly and productivity. Your government should take measures now not to rely on the global warming scare but global cooling that will prove a lot more expensive in the long run to adapt to.
I am shaving of my (40 year old well trimmed) beard , I am getting my eyes fixed so no more glasses, that is all because my wife said I looked a lot like this Holder guy. ( She did not know what I was looking at that moment), I did not notice it until when I went back to look. I just about fell out of my chair. And I am not cutting my hair for a year! Although mine is not as grey as his, as my mom always told me,? grey hair? , worries and such. I think Holder has a few of those.
Asybot,my elderly grandfather lived until he was 95 an old sea dog too with a mass of silver hair,
And he said ‘Grey/white hair was honorable but a bald head was abominable. ” His opinion not mine. Keep the honorable image. I find it attractive in older men, but I have dyed my silver hair blondish on occasions.
Warm globally, cool locally!!! LOL!
andy123 says:
April 18, 2014 at 11:12 am
the use of “Holdren” and “tool” in the same argument, nearly brought me undone.
The Obama Administration loves telling Half-truths. And this White House honors loyalty over professional competence. Half truths allow a deception to be foisted on naive individuals who don’t know the whole truth. Holdren is telling half-truths, and is professionally incompetent now as scientist with these knowingly dishonest, unethical claims as he MUST know, that on the whole, what he selling is a deception, wrapped in half-truths.
Michael E. Newton says:
Wait a gosh darn second. I thought that weather was not climate? Now Holdren is saying that it is? And that cold weather is proof of a warm climate?
IME it’s most often “warmists” who need to be remined that “weather” and “climate” are not the same thing.
Except that nobody forecast this a couple of decades ago.
I love this hindcasting business. Can i do this with the stockmarket too??
Ralph
Just to confirm, the NCDC index is based on the adjusted temperatures.
Perhaps we should mention this to Holdren, and ask him if the official temperature record might be wrong!