The big list of failed climate predictions

Reader “Sasha” responding to Jeff Alberts in comments provided a large list that I thought was worth sharing.

Submitted on 2014/04/02 at 8:37 am

The question wasn’t “what do people think is caused by global warming”, but “what was predicted by scientists and activists 25 years ago that would be a result of global warming.” Big difference.

OK. Hang on to your hat!

The original post was asking for a list of failed climate predictions, so here are 107:

FAILED CLIMATE PREDICTIONS (and some related stupid sayings)

1. “Due to global warming, the coming winters in the local regions will become milder.”

Stefan Rahmstorf, Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research, University of Potsdam, February 8, 2006

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2. “Milder winters, drier summers: Climate study shows a need to adapt in Saxony Anhalt.”

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Press Release, January 10, 2010.

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3. “More heat waves, no snow in the winter… Climate models… over 20 times more precise than the UN IPCC global models. In no other country do we have more precise calculations of climate consequences. They should form the basis for political planning… Temperatures in the wintertime will rise the most… there will be less cold air coming to Central Europe from the east…In the Alps winters will be 2°C warmer already between 2021 and 2050.”

Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, September 2, 2008.

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4. “The new Germany will be characterized by dry-hot summers and warm-wet winters.”

Wilhelm Gerstengarbe and Peter Werner, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), March 2, 2007

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5. “Clear climate trends are seen from the computer simulations. Foremost the winter months will be warmer all over Germany. Depending of CO2 emissions, temperatures will rise by up to 4°C, in the Alps by up to 5°C.”

Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, 7 Dec 2009.

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6. “In summer under certain conditions the scientists reckon with a complete melting of the Arctic sea ice. For Europe we expect an increase in drier and warmer summers. Winters on the other hand will be warmer and wetter.”

Erich Roeckner, Max Planck Institute, Hamburg, 29 Sept 2005.

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7. “The more than ‘unusually ‘warm January weather is yet ‘another extreme event’, ‘a harbinger of the winters that are ahead of us’. … The global temperature will ‘increase every year by 0.2°C’”

Michael Müller, Socialist, State Secretary in the Federal Ministry of Environment,

Die Zeit, 15 Jan 2007

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8. “Harsh winters likely will be more seldom and precipitation in the wintertime will be heavier everywhere. However, due to the milder temperatures, it’ll fall more often as rain than as snow.”

Online-Atlas of the Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft, 2010

9. “We’ve mostly had mild winters in which only a few cold months were scattered about, like January 2009. This winter is a cold outlier, but that doesn’t change the picture as a whole. Generally it’s going to get warmer, also in the wintertime.”

Gerhard Müller-Westermeier, German Weather Service (DWD), 26 Jan 2010

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10. “Winters with strong frost and lots of snow like we had 20 years ago will cease to exist at our latitudes.”

Mojib Latif, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, 1 April 2000

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11. “Good bye winter. Never again snow?”

Spiegel, 1 April 2000

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12. “In the northern part of the continent there likely will be some benefits in the form of reduced cold periods and higher agricultural yields. But the continued increase in temperatures will cancel off these benefits. In some regions up to 60% of the species could die off by 2080.”

3Sat, 26 June 2003

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13. “Although the magnitude of the trends shows large variation among different models, Miller et al. (2006) find that none of the 14 models exhibits a trend towards a lower NAM index and higher arctic SLP.”

IPCC 2007 4AR, (quoted by Georg Hoffmann)

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14. “Based on the rising temperature, less snow will be expected regionally. While currently 1/3 of the precipitation in the Alps falls as snow, the snow-share of precipitation by the end of the century could end up being just one sixth.”

Germanwatch, Page 7, Feb 2007

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15. “Assuming there will be a doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere, as is projected by the year 2030. The consequences could be hotter and drier summers, and winters warmer and wetter. Such a warming will be proportionately higher at higher elevations – and especially will have a powerful impact on the glaciers of the Firn regions.”

and

“ The ski areas that reliably have snow will shift from 1200 meters to 1500 meters elevation by the year 2050; because of the climate prognoses warmer winters have to be anticipated.”

Scinexx Wissenschaft Magazin, 26 Mar 2002

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16. “Yesterday’s snow… Because temperatures in the Alps are rising quickly, there will be more precipitation in many places. But because it will rain more often than it snows, this will be bad news for tourists. For many ski lifts this means the end of business.”

Daniela Jacob, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, 8 Aug 2006

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17. “Spring will begin in January starting in 2030.”

Die Welt, 30 Sept 2010

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18. “Ice, snow, and frost will disappear, i.e. milder winters” … “Unusually warm winters without snow and ice are now being viewed by many as signs of climate change.”

Schleswig Holstein NABU, 10 Feb 2007

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19. “Good bye winter… In the northern hemisphere the deviations are much greater according to NOAA calculations, in some areas up to 5°C. That has consequences says DWD meteorologist Müller-Westermeier: When the snowline rises over large areas, the bare ground is warmed up even more by sunlight. This amplifies global warming. A process that is uncontrollable – and for this reason understandably arouses old childhood fears: First the snow disappears, and then winter.”

Die Zeit, 16 Mar 2007

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20. “Warm in the winter, dry in the summer … Long, hard winters in Germany remain rare: By 2085 large areas of the Alps and Central German Mountains will be almost free of snow. Because air temperatures in winter will rise more quickly than in summer, there will be more precipitation. ‘However, much of it will fall as rain,’ says Daniela Jacob of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology.”

FOCUS, 24 May 2006

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21. “Consequences and impacts for regional agriculture: Hotter summers, milder plus shorter winters (palm trees!). Agriculture: More CO2 in the air, higher temperatures, foremost in winter.”

Dr. Michael Schirmer, University of Bremen, presentation of 2 Feb 2007

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22. “Winters: wet and mild”

Bavarian State Ministry for Agriculture, presentation 23 Aug 2007

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23. “The climate model prognoses currently indicate that the following climate changes will occur: Increase in minimum temperatures in the winter.”

Chamber of Agriculture of Lower Saxony Date: 6 July 2009

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24. “Both the prognoses for global climate development and the prognoses for the climatic development of the Fichtel Mountains clearly show a warming of the average temperature, whereby especially the winter months will be greatly impacted.”

Willi Seifert, University of Bayreuth, diploma thesis, p. 203, 7 July 2004

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25. “Already in the year 2025 the conditions for winter sports in the Fichtel Mountains will develop negatively, especially with regards to ‘natural’ snow conditions and for so-called snow-making potential. A financially viable ski business operation after about the year 2025 appears under these conditions to be extremely improbable (Seifert, 2004)”.

Andreas Matzarakis, University of Freiburg Meteorological Institute, 26 July 2006

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26. “Skiing among palm trees? … For this reason I would advise no one in the Berchtesgadener Land to invest in a ski-lift. The probability of earning money with the global warming is getting less and less.”

Hartmut Graßl, Director Emeritus,

Max Planck-Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, page 3, 4 Mar 2006

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27. “Climate warming leads to an increasingly higher snow line. The number of future ski resorts that can be expected to have snow is reducing. […] Climate change does not only lead to higher temperatures, but also to changes in the precipitation ratios in summer and winter. […] In the wintertime more precipitation is to be anticipated. However, it will fall more often as rain, and less often as snow, in the future.”

Hans Elsasser, Director of the Geographical Institute of the University of Zurich, 4 Mar 2006

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28. “All climate simulations – global and regional – were carried out at the Deutschen Klimarechenzentrum [German Climate Simulation Center]. […] In the winter months the temperature rise is from 1.5°C to 2°C and stretches from Scandinavia to the Mediterranean Sea. Only in regions that are directly influenced by the Atlantic (Great Britain, Portugal, parts of Spain) will the winter temperature increase be less (Fig. 1).”

Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Press Release, Date: December 2007/January 2013.

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29. “By the year 2050 … temperatures will rise 1.5ºC to 2.5°C (summer) and 3°C (winter). … in the summer it will rain up to 40% less and in the winter up to 30% more.

German Federal Department of Highways, 1 Sept 2010

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30. “We are now at the threshold of making reliable statements about the future.”

Daniela Jacob, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, page 44, 10/2001

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31. “The scenarios of climate scientists are unanimous about one thing: In the future in Germany we will have to live with drier and drier summers and a lot more rain in the winters.”

Gerhard Müller-Westermeier, German Weather Service (DWD), 20 May 2010

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32. “In the wintertime the winds will be more from the west and will bring storms to Germany. Especially in western and southern Germany there will be flooding.” FOCUS / Mojib Latif, Leibniz Institute for Ocean Sciences of the University of Kiel, 27 May 2006.

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33. “While the increases in the springtime appear as rather modest, the (late)summer and winter months are showing an especially powerful warming trend.”

State Ministry of Environment, Agriculture and Geology, Saxony, p. 133, Schriftenreihe Heft 25/2009.

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34. “Warm Winters Result From Greenhouse Effect, Columbia Scientists Find, Using NASA Model … Despite appearing as part of a natural climate oscillation, the large increases in wintertime surface temperatures over the continents may therefore be attributable in large part to human activities,”

Science Daily, Dr. Drew Shindell 4 June 1999

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35. “Within a few years winter snowfall will become a very rare and exciting event. … Children just aren’t going to know what snow is.”

David Viner, Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, 20 March 2000

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36. “This data confirms what many gardeners believe – winters are not as hard as they used to be. … And if recent trends continue a white Christmas in Wales could certainly be a thing of the past.”

BBC, Dr Jeremy Williams, Bangor University, Lecturer in Geomatics, 20 Dec 2004

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37. The rise in temperature associated with climate change leads to a general reduction in the proportion of precipitation falling as snow, and a consequent reduction in many areas in the duration of snow cover.”

Global Environmental Change, Nigel W. Arnell, Geographer, 1 Oct 1999

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38. “Computer models predict that the temperature rise will continue at that accelerated pace if emissions of heat-trapping gases are not reduced, and also predict that warming will be especially pronounced in the wintertime.”

Star News, William K. Stevens, New York Times, 11 Mar 2000

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39. “In a warmer world, less winter precipitation falls as snow and the melting of winter snow occurs earlier in spring. Even without any changes in precipitation intensity, both of these effects lead to a shift in peak river runoff to winter and early spring, away from summer and autumn.”

Nature, T. P. Barnett et. al., 17 Nov 2005

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40. “We are beginning to approximate the kind of warming you should see in the winter season.”

Star News, Mike Changery, National Climatic Data Center, 11 Mar 2000

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41. “Milder winter temperatures will decrease heavy snowstorms but could cause an increase in freezing rain if average daily temperatures fluctuate about the freezing point.”

IPCC Climate Change, 2001

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42. “Global climate change is likely to be accompanied by an increase in the frequency and intensity of heat waves, as well as warmer summers and milder winters…9.4.2. Decreased Mortality Resulting from Milder Winters … One study estimates a decrease in annual cold-related deaths of 20,000 in the UK by the 2050s (a reduction of 25%)”

IPCC Climate Change, 2001

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43. “The lowest winter temperatures are likely to increase more than average winter temperature in northern Europe. …The duration of the snow season is very likely to shorten in all of Europe, and snow depth is likely to decrease in at least most of Europe.”

IPCC Climate Change, 2007

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44. “Snowlines are going up in altitude all over the world. The idea that we will get less snow is absolutely in line with what we expect from global warming.”

WalesOnline, Sir John Houghton – atmospheric physicist, 30 June 2007

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45. “In the UK wetter winters are expected which will lead to more extreme rainfall, whereas summers are expected to get drier. However, it is possible under climate change that there could be an increase of extreme rainfall even under general drying.”

Telegraph, Dr. Peter Stott, Met Office, 24 July 2007

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46. “Winter has gone forever and we should officially bring spring forward instead. … There is no winter any more despite a cold snap before Christmas. It is nothing like years ago when I was younger. There is a real problem with spring because so much is flowering so early year to year.”

Express, Dr Nigel Taylor, Curator of Kew Gardens, 8 Feb 2008

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47. “The past is no longer a guide to the future. We no longer have a stationary climate,”…

Independent, Dr. Peter Stott, Met Office, 27 Jul 2007

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48. “It is consistent with the climate change message. It is exactly what we expect winters to be like – warmer and wetter, and dryer and hotter summers. …the winter we have just seen is consistent with the type of weather we expect to see more and more in the future.”

Wayne Elliott, Met Office meteorologist, BBC, 27 Feb 2007

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49. “ If your decisions depend on what’s happening at these very fine scales of 25 km or even 5 km resolution then you probably shouldn’t be making irreversible investment decisions now.”

Myles Allen, “one of the UK’s leading climate modellers”, Oxford University, 18 June 2009

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50. “It’s great that the government has decided to put together such a scientifically robust analysis of the potential impacts of climate change in the UK.”

Keith Allott, WWF-UK, 18 June 2009

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51. “The data collected by experts from the university [of Bangor] suggests that a white Christmas on Snowdon – the tallest mountain in England and Wales – may one day become no more than a memory.”

BBC News, 20 Dec 2004

[BBC 2013: “Snowdon Mountain Railway will be shut over the Easter weekend after it was hit by 30ft (9.1m) snow drifts.”]

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52. “Spring is arriving earlier each year as a result of climate change, the first ‘conclusive proof’ that global warming is altering the timing of the seasons, scientists announced yesterday.”

Guardian, 26 Aug 2006.

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53. “Given the increase in the average winter temperature it is obvious that the number of frost days and the number of days that the snow remains, will decline. For Europe the models indicate that cold winters such as at the end of the 20th century, that happened at an average once every ten years, will gradually disappear in the course of the century.” (p. 19), and

“…but it might well be that nothing remains of the snowjoy in the Hautes Fagnes but some yellowed photos because of the climate change … moreover an increase in winter precipitation would certainly not be favorable for recreation!” (p38)

Jean-Pascal van Ypersele and Philippe Marbaix, Greenpeace, 2004

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54. “Shindell’s model predicts that if greenhouse gases continue to increase, winter in the Northern Hemisphere will continue to warm. ‘In our model, we’re seeing a very large signal of global warming and it’s not a naturally occurring thing. It’s most likely linked to greenhouse gases,’ he said.

NASA, GISS, 2 June 1999

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55. “We have seen that in the last years and decades that winters have become much milder than before and that there isn’t nearly as much snowfall. All simulations show this trend will continue in the future and that we have to expect an intense warming in the Alps…especially in the foothills, snow will turn to rain and winter sports will no longer be possible anymore.”

Mojib Latif, Leibnitz Institute for Oceanography, University of Kiel, February 17, 2005

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56. Planning for a snowless future: “Our study is already showing that that there will be a much worse situation in 20 years.”

Christopher Krull, Black Forest Tourism Association / Spiegel, 17 Feb 2005

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57. “Rhineland-Palatinate, as will be the case for all of Central Europe, will be affected by higher than average warming rates and winters with snow disappearing increasingly.”

Prof. Dr. Hartmut Grassl, “internationally renowned meteorologist”, Director Emeritus, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, 20 Nov 2008

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58. “With the pace of global warming increasing, some climate change experts predict that the Scottish ski industry will cease to exist within 20 years.”

Guardian, 14 February 2004

[4 January 2013: “Nevis Range, The Lecht, Cairngorm, Glenshee and Glencoe all remain closed today due to the heavy snow and strong winds.”]

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59. “Unfortunately, it’s just getting too hot for the Scottish ski industry.”

David Viner, Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, 14 Feb 2004

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60. “For the Baltic ringed seal, climate change could mean its demise” warned a team of scientists at the Baltic Sea Experiment (Baltex) conference in Goteborg. “This is because the warming leads to the ice on the Baltic Sea to melt earlier and earlier every year.”

Spiegel, 3 June 2006

[The Local 2013: “Late-season freeze sets Baltic ice record … I’ve never seen this much ice this late in the season.”]

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61. Forecasters Predict More Mild Winter for Europe

Reuters, Nov 09, 2012

FRANKFURT – European weather in the coming winter now looks more likely to be mild than in previous studies, German meteorologist Georg Mueller said in a monthly report.

“The latest runs are generally in favor of a milder than normal winter, especially over northern Europe.”

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62. “Spring is arriving earlier each year as a result of climate change, the first ‘conclusive proof’ that global warming is altering the timing of the seasons, scientists announced yesterday.”

Guardian, 26 August 2006.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2006/aug/26/climatechange.climatechangeenvironment

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63. “Given the increase in the average winter temperature it is obvious that the number of frost days and the number of days that the snow remains, will decline. For Europe the models indicate that cold winters such as at the end of the 20th century, that happened at an average once every ten years, will gradually disappear in the course of the century.” (p19)

“…but it might well be that nothing remains of the snowjoy in the Hautes Fagnes but some yellowed photos because of the climate change … moreover an increase in winter precipitation would certainly not be favorable for recreation!” (p38)

Impact of the climate change in Belgium (translated from Dutch).

Jean-Pascal van Ypersele and Philippe Marbaix for Greenpeace, 2004

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64. “The hottest year since 1659 spells global doom”

Telegraph December 14, 2006

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1536852/The-hottest-year-since-1659-spells-global-doom.html

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65. “Jay Wynne from the BBC Weather Centre presents reports for typical days in 2020, 2050 and 2080 as predicted by our experiment.”

BBCs Climate Change Experiment

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/climateexperiment/whattheymean/theuk.shtml

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66. “Cold winters would gradually disappear.” (p.4)

67. “In Belgium, snow on the ground could become increasingly rare but there would be plenty of grey sky and rain in winter..” (p.6)

The Greenpeace report “Impacts of climate change in Belgium” is available in an abbreviated version in English:

http://www.greenpeace.org/belgium/PageFiles/19049/SumIB_uk.pdf

Impacts of climate change in Belgium

Jean-Pascal van Ypersele and Philippe Marbaix for Greenpeace, 2004

Climate scientist van Ypersele is Vice Chair of the IPCC.

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68. “Warmer and Wetter Winters in Europe and Western North America Linked to Increasing Greenhouse Gases.”

NASA, June 2, 1999

http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/19990602/

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69. “The global temperature will increase every year by 0.2°C”

Michael Müller, Socialist, State Secretary in the Federal Ministry of Environment, in Die Zeit, January 15, 2007

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70. “Unfortunately, it’s just getting too hot for the Scottish ski industry. It is very vulnerable to climate change; the resorts have always been marginal in terms of snow and, as the rate of climate change increases, it is hard to see a long-term future.”

David Viner, of the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia.

February 14, 2004

http://www.theguardian.com/uk/2004/feb/14/climatechange.scotland

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71. “Climate change will have the effect of pushing more and more winter sports higher and higher up mountains,…”

Rolf Burki and his colleagues at the University of Zurich

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2003/dec/03/research.sciencenews

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72. “ In the future, snowdrops will be out in January, primroses in February, mayflowers and lilac in April and wild roses in May, the ponds will be full of tadpoles in March and a month later even the oaks will be in full leaf. If that isn’t enough, autumn probably won’t begin until October.”

Geraint Smith, Science Correspondent, Standard

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/british-seasons-start-to-shift-6358532.html

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73. “The West Side Highway [which runs along the Hudson River] will be under water. And there will be tape across the windows across the street because of high winds. And the same birds won’t be there. The trees in the median strip will change….There will be more police cars….[since] you know what happens to crime when the heat goes up.”

Dr. James Hansen, 1988, in an interview with author Rob Reiss.

Reiss asked how the greenhouse effect was likely to affect the neighborhood below Hansen’s office in NYC in the next 20 years.

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74. March 20, 2000, from The Independent, According to Dr David Viner of the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit, snowfall in Britain would become “a very rare and exciting event” and “children just aren’t going to know what snow is.”

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75. September 2006, Arnold Schwarzenegger signing California’s anti-emissions law, “We simply must do everything in our power to slow down global warming before it is too late…The science is clear. The global warming debate is over.”

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76. 1990 Actress Meryl Streep “By the year 2000 – that’s less than ten years away–earth’s climate will be warmer than it’s been in over 100,000 years. If we don’t do something, there’ll be enormous calamities in a very short time.”

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77. April 2008, Media Mogul Ted Turner on Charlie Rose (On not taking drastic action to correct global warming) “Not doing it will be catastrophic. We’ll be eight degrees hotter in ten, not ten but 30 or 40 years and basically none of the crops will grow. Most of the people will have died and the rest of us will be cannibals.”

[Strictly speaking, this is not a failed prediction. It won’t be until at least 2048 that our church-going and pie-baking neighbors come after us for their noonday meal. But the prediction is so bizarre that it is included it here.]

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78. January 1970 Life Magazine “Scientists have solid experimental and theoretical evidence to support …the following predictions: In a decade, urban dwellers will have to wear gas masks to survive air pollution…by 1985 air pollution will have reduced the amount of sunlight reaching earth by one half…”

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79. “Earth Day” 1970 Kenneth Watt, ecologist: “At the present rate of nitrogen build-up, it’s only a matter of time before light will be filtered out of the atmosphere and none of our land will be usable.”

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80. “Earth Day” 1970 Kenneth Watt, ecologist: “The world has been chilling sharply for about twenty years. If present trends continue, the world will be about four degrees colder for the global mean temperature in 1990, but eleven degrees colder in the year 2000. This is about twice what it would take to put us into an ice age.”

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81. April 28, 1975 Newsweek “There are ominous signs that Earth’s weather patterns have begun to change dramatically….The evidence in support of these predictions has now begun to accumulate so massively that meteorologists are hard-pressed to keep up with it….The central fact is that…the earth’s climate seems to be cooling down…If the climate change is as profound as some of the pessimists fear, the resulting famines could be catastrophic.”

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82. 1976 Lowell Ponte in “The Cooling,”: “This cooling has already killed hundreds of thousands of people. If it continues and no strong action is taken, it will cause world famine, world chaos and world war, and this could all come about before the year 2000.”

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83. July 9, 1971, Washington Post: “In the next 50 years fine dust that humans discharge into the atmosphere by burning fossil fuel will screen out so much of the sun’s rays that the Earth’s average temperature could fall by six degrees. Sustained emissions over five to ten years, could be sufficient to trigger an ice age.”

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84. June, 1975, Nigel Calder in International Wildlife: “The continued rapid cooling of the earth since WWII is in accord with the increase in global air pollution associated with industrialization, mechanization, urbanization and exploding population.”

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85. June 30, 1989, Associated Press: U.N. OFFICIAL PREDICTS DISASTER, SAYS GREENHOUSE EFFECT COULD WIPE SOME NATIONS OFF MAP–entire nations could be wiped off the face of the earth by rising sea levels if global warming is not reversed by the year 2000. Coastal flooding and crop failures would create an exodus of ‘eco-refugees,’ threatening political chaos,” said Brown, director of the New York office of the U.N. Environment Program. He added that governments have a 10-year window of opportunity to solve the greenhouse effect.

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86. Sept 19, 1989, St. Louis Post-Dispatch: “New York will probably be like Florida 15 years from now.”

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87. December 5, 1989, Dallas Morning News: “Some predictions for the next decade are not difficult to make…Americans may see the ’80s migration to the Sun Belt reverse as a global warming trend rekindles interest in cooler climates.”

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88. Michael Oppenheimer, 1990, The Environmental Defense Fund: “By 1995, the greenhouse effect would be desolating the heartlands of North America and Eurasia with horrific drought, causing crop failures and food riots…”(By 1996) The Platte River of Nebraska would be dry, while a continent-wide black blizzard of prairie topsoil will stop traffic on interstates, strip paint from houses and shut down computers…The Mexican police will round up illegal American migrants surging into Mexico seeking work as field hands.”

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89. April 18, 1990, Denver Post: “Giant sand dunes may turn Plains to desert–huge sand dunes extending east from Colorado’s Front Range may be on the verge of breaking through the thin topsoil, transforming America’s rolling High Plains into a desert, new research suggests. The giant sand dunes discovered by NASA satellite photos are expected to re-emerge over the next 20 t0 50 years, depending on how fast average temperatures rise from the suspected ‘greenhouse effect’ scientists believe.”

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90. Edward Goldsmith, 1991, (5000 Days to Save the Planet): “By 2000, British and American oil will have diminished to a trickle….Ozone depletion and global warming threaten food shortages, but the wealthy North will enjoy a temporary reprieve by buying up the produce of the South. Unrest among the hungry and the ensuing political instability, will be contained by the North’s greater military might. A bleak future indeed, but an inevitable one unless we change the way we live…At present rates of exploitation there may be no rainforest left in 10 years. If measures are not taken immediately, the greenhouse effect may be unstoppable in 12 to 15 years.”

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91. April 22, 1990 ABC, The Miracle Planet: “I think we’re in trouble. When you realize how little time we have left–we are now given not 10 years to save the rainforests, but in many cases five years. Madagascar will largely be gone in five years unless something happens. And nothing is happening.”

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92. February 1993, Thomas E. Lovejoy, Smithsonian Institution: “Most of the great environmental struggles will be either won or lost in the 1990s and by the next century it will be too late.”

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93. November 7, 1997, (BBC commentator): “It appears that we have a very good case for suggesting that the El Niños are going to become more frequent, and they’re going to become more intense and in a few years, or a decade or so, we’ll go into a permanent El Nino. So instead of having cool water periods for a year or two, we’ll have El Niño upon El Niño, and that will become the norm. And you’ll have an El Niño, that instead of lasting 18 months, lasts 18 years.”

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94. July 26, 1999 The Birmingham Post: “Scientists are warning that some of the Himalayan glaciers could vanish within ten years because of global warming. A build-up of greenhouse gases is blamed for the meltdown, which could lead to drought and flooding in the region affecting millions of people.”

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95. October 15, 1990 Carl Sagan: “The planet could face an ‘ecological and agricultural catastrophe’ by the next decade if global warming trends continue.”

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96. Sept 11, 1999, The Guardian: “A report last week claimed that within a decade, the disease (malaria) will be common again on the Spanish coast. The effects of global warming are coming home to roost in the developed world.”

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97. March 29, 2001, CNN: “In ten year’s time, most of the low-lying atolls surrounding Tuvalu’s nine islands in the South Pacific Ocean will be submerged under water as global warming rises sea levels.”

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98. 1969, Lubos Moti, Czech physicist: “It is now pretty clearly agreed that CO2 content [in the atmosphere] will rise 25% by 2000. This could increase the average temperature near the earth’s surface by 7 degrees Fahrenheit. This in turn could raise the level of the sea by 10 feet. Goodbye New York. Goodbye Washington, for that matter.”

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99. 2005, Andrew Simms, policy director of the New Economics Foundation: “Scholars are predicting that 50 million people worldwide will be displaced by 2010 because of rising sea levels, desertification, dried up aquifers, weather-induced flooding and other serious environmental changes.”

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100. Oct 20, 2009, Gordon Brown UK Prime Minister (referring to the Copenhagen climate conference): “World leaders have 50 days to save the Earth from irreversible global warming.”

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101. June 2008, Ted Alvarez, Backpacker Magazine Blogs: “you could potentially sail, kayak, or even swim to the North Pole by the end of the summer. Climate scientists say that the Arctic ice…is currently on track to melt sometime in 2008.”

[Shortly after this prediction was made, a Russian icebreaker was trapped in the ice of the Northwest Passage for a week.]

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102. May 31, 2006 Al Gore, CBS Early Show: “…the debate among the scientists is over. There is no more debate. We face a planetary emergency. There is no more scientific debate among serious people who’ve looked at the science…Well, I guess in some quarters, there’s still a debate over whether the moon landing was staged in a movie lot in Arizona, or whether the Earth is flat instead of round.”

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103. January 2000 Dr. Michael Oppenheimer of the Environmental Defense Fund commenting (in a NY Times interview) on the mild winters in New York City: “But it does not take a scientist to size up the effects of snowless winters on the children too young to remember the record-setting blizzards of 1996. For them, the pleasures of sledding and snowball fights are as out-of-date as hoop-rolling, and the delight of a snow day off from school is unknown.”

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104. 2008 Dr. James Hansen of the Goddard Space Institute (NASA) on a visit to Britain: “The recent warm winters that Britain has experienced are a sign that the climate is changing.”

[Two exceptionally cold winters followed. The 2009-10 winter may be the coldest experienced in the UK since 1683.]

****

105. June 11, 1986, Dr. James Hansen of the Goddard Space Institute (NASA) in testimony to Congress (according to the Milwaukee Journal): “Hansen predicted global temperatures should be nearly 2 degrees higher in 20 years, ‘which is about the warmest the earth has been in the last 100,000 years.’”

****

106. June 8, 1972, Christian Science Monitor: “Arctic specialist Bernt Balchen says a general warming trend over the North Pole is melting the polar ice cap and may produce an ice-free Arctic Ocean by the year 2000.”

****

107. May 15, 1989, Associated Press: “Using computer models, researchers concluded that global warming would raise average annual temperatures nationwide [USA] two degrees by 2010.”

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Henri de Carbonel

Hey, nobodys perfect!

Richard

Wow.. this post is of a quality that I’d expect from spam email. It is extremely poorly sourced. Most entries are completely devoid of context about the range of time these predictions are supposed to occur by, and there are even predictions that specify ranges of years that are still decades away, yet are somehow already considered “failed.”

@njsnowfan

OMG , So many. I only read the first 10 so far and a few at the end.
I would think there are still many more then 107
Thanks, great reads

Bruce Cobb

You can’t know that those are failed predictions. They might have come true in an alternate universe.

richard

so many so just flicked through,
anything about Polar bears or the Himalayas.

LB

“In the UK wetter winters are expected which will lead to more extreme rainfall, whereas summers are expected to get drier. However, it is possible under climate change that there could be an increase of extreme rainfall even under general drying.”
Telegraph, Dr. Peter Stott, Met Office, 24 July 2007
==============
About the only one correct, for this year at least

chuckarama

Oh sure. All these _false prophets_ dabbled at prediction. Luckily we have Nostradamus to fall back on for the real predictions of global warming.
Century 1 verse 17
For forty years the rainbow will not be seen.
For forty years it will be seen every day.
The dry earth will grow more parched
And there will be great floods when it is seen.
Century 1 verse 67
The great famine which I sense approaching
Will often turn in various areas then become world-wide.
It will be so vast and long lasting that they will grab roots
From the trees and children from the breast.

Steve C

Phew, that’s quite a list already, and as njsnowfan says there must be a fair few more. I do like the inclusion of a few “global cooling” quotes down the list, just to remind us.
This could easily become another Reference Page …

Patagon

They seem to dislike skiing very much. I would like to know the actual impact of those failed prophecies on the skiing industry. Calling to stop investment on the basis of unsupported regional models is a bit nasty (number 26).

David L.

And just like any faith based religion, AGW cannot be falsified.

ossqss

They did get one right.
Global warming theory will produce a 1000x increase in AGW research funding while research funding on the subject of natural variability will get nothing.

Jimbo

Hey Anthony and Sasha,
The failed winter predictions / earlier Springs look very similar to Pierre’s and mine. 😉
See 1 to 60 are identical I think dated 4. April 2013
Climate Science Humiliated…Earlier Model Prognoses Of Warmer Winters Now Today’s Laughingstocks
I gave a sampling in February 2014 here.
Congratulations anyway. 🙂

London247

Re 35,
I look forward to the alternative.
“Belief in AGW will become a rare and exciting event. Proponents of AGW will not know what a taxpayer grant cheque is.”
All I ask is for someone to say when the Arctic Ice cap will totally melt ( +/-) 1 year. If it does so I may change my mind about AGW. If it doesn’t melt per the prdeiction the proponent will be left at the North Pole having forfeited all their wealth and possessions ( including that of their spouse and offspring). Now who will make such a prediction?

The Ghost Of Big Jim Cooley

Number 98: has anyone checked this (partial pun)? There is the Czech physicist Lubos Motl, but he wasn’t born until 1973. I can find no reference for a ‘Lubos Moti’ – note the ‘i’.

Lance Wallace

Are the quotes accurate? Without links, we can’t know. Great effort collecting these, but an even greater effort is required for proper documentation. A little humorous to see Lubos Motl (misspelled Moti, # 98 above) being quoted in 1969 as (apparently) supporting the catastrophe meme, since now he is viciously opposed. But maybe his next sentence would have been something to the effect of “how ridiculous these predictions are.” (I’m sure he will have a rejoinder along those lines.)

Walt The Physicist

Are there any fulfilled prognostications of the AGW proponents? If not, the score 0-107 will look impressive.

Joe Public

“The question (was) “what was predicted by scientists and activists 25 years ago that would be a result of global warming.” ”
Sad that the list needed to be padded out with many quotations made after 1990. At least one was made just 2 years ago.

Les Johnson

Sasha: With all due respect; that ain’t nuthin.
I have 152 seperate entries in my database, with one or more predictions per entry. All told, over 300. Some have 60 predictions on winter alone. (see below)
http://notrickszone.com/2013/04/04/climate-science-humiliated-earlier-model-prognoses-of-warmer-winters-now-todays-laughingstocks/
Some are duplicated, and not all the references are given. I have references for all, but they are in another column.
Both UAE and Hadley researchers said snow would be a rare occurrence.
“Hansen predicted in the late 80s, that :
“”The West Side Highway [which runs along the Hudson River] will be under water. And there will be tape across the windows across the street because of high winds. And the same birds won’t be there. The trees in the median strip will change.”” Then he said, “”There will be more police cars.”” Why? “”Well, you know what happens to crime when the heat goes up.””
“San Jose Mercury News (CA) – June 30, 1989
“A senior environmental official at the United Nations, Noel Brown, says entire nations could be wiped off the face of the earth by rising sea levels if global warming is not reversed by the year 2000……… He said governments have a 10-year window of opportunity to solve the greenhouse effect… “”
A look at Hansen’s 1988 projections.
“From a warmist website, on Hansen’s 1988 projections:

There are two main reasons for Hansen’s warming overestimates:

Hansen predicted that the 1990-2000 period would see a rise of up to 1 deg F. The next decade would se 2-4 deg F rise.
Predictions on when the arctic will be ice free. Years picked are between 2000 and 2016….
The predictive skill of the Met Office is on the low side, 11 of the last 12 years.
Predictions made on the “permanent drought”. Note that no one said it would never raiin, but many said that the drought was permmanent.
More on the predictions of the “never ending drought” in Oz. Also, an explanation of why even the experts have confused causation. Warm temperatures do not cause drought, but drought causes warmer temperatures.
An update, where the scientist stating that no predictions were made, says that the predictions made were only to the press, so don’t really count.
“Then, talking in repsonse to Katrina: “”We’re in for a rough ride over the next 10 years.”” — Kerry Emanuel, emphasizing that the current increase in hurricanes in the Atlantic is part of a natural cycle. US News & World Report, Aug. 31, 2005
Now, talking about the longest recorded period between major hurricane landfalls, and also includes the next 7 years in the 10 years in the first quote: Kerry Emanuel, a meteorology professor at MIT, said the seven-year gap between major hurricanes in the U.S. is most likely just due to chance. “Seven years is simply far too short to see global warming signals in U.S. landfalling hurricane statistics of any kind,” he said via email”
The IPCC 1990 SPM is the only one that has “predictions”. It predicted warming of 1.5 to 2 deg by 2012, over the pre-industrial value.
“Matthew England said that anyone who says the IPCC projections are over estimates, is lying. It appears he is lying. The IPCC low end estimate of warming from 1990 is higher than current temperatures.
From the IPCC 1990 report:
This will result in a likely increase in global mean temperature of about 1° C above the present value by 2025…”
That should mean we would have over 0.6 deg of warming in 2012. At best, using HADCRUT 4, its 0.36, or nearly 1/2 the median estimate.”
2001 15.2.4.1.2.4. Ice Storms
Milder winter temperatures will decrease heavy snowstorms

http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_tar/?src=/climate/ipcc_tar/wg2/569.htm
1995 IPCC Draft
accompanied in the Northern Hemisphere by a shrinking snow cover in winter.
http://www.nytimes.com/1995/09/18/world/scientists-say-earth-s-warming-could-set-off-wide-disruptions.html
From the 2007 AR4
Frequently Asked Question 4.1
Is the amount of snow and ice on the earth decreasing?
Yes.
Snow cover is retreating earlier in the spring.

http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter4.pdf
However, the warming is so far manifesting itself more in winters which are less cold than in much hotter summers. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”.
“Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he said.

“This page shows the accuracy of EC seasonal forecasts. As Tim Ball shows on WUWT, the accuracy is about the same as tossing a coin.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/01/08/wrong-prediction-wrong-science-unless-its-government-climate-science/
The IPCC forecast in 1995 and 2001, that snow cover would decline.
http://observatory.ph/resources/IPCC/TAR/wg2/569.htm#1524123
http://www.nytimes.com/1995/09/18/world/scientists-say-earth-s-warming-could-set-off-wide-disruptions.html
Scientists Viner (CRU), and Parker (Hadley) predicted in 2000 that “children won’t know what snow is”.
The MO just changed its long term projection , and it shows no additional warming 2013-2017, with an average of 0.43 deg C over the 1971-2000 average. This compares to the prediction they made 2 years ago, with average temps of 0.7 deg over the average.
“The Met Office predicted that 1/2 the years 2010-2015 will be hotter than 1998. Fail.
They predicted that 2010 would be hotter than 1998. Fail.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2009/global-warming
“Nasa predicted an increase of global temps of 0.15 deg C over the period 2009-2014.
Interestingly, they also predict a slowdown in warming, 2014-2019.”
The MO predicted a BBQ summer in 2009. Fail.
The EA predicted drought until Christmas, in the UK. Instead, it was a record year for rain. Fail.
The MO predicted drier than average for April-May-June. Fail.
Environment Canada (EC) has a site that looks at past predictions and results. Tossing a coin would be as accurate.
“The Met Office, whe they changed the predictions for future temperature, also jigged the past predictions. Note the wite line in both charts. It is, as the text says, indicative of past predictions. In the latest chart, it seems to show that they predicted the downturn in temps in 2005. In the older chart, its obvious they were predicting much higher temps.
While this is due to “”hindcasting””, it does show the accuracy of the models.Also the accuarcy of the descriptions, as the Met should not call them “”previous predictions””, or even “”retorspective forecasts””.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/long-range/decadal-fc
http://www.webcitation.org/6DWaflh2M
A list of some of the many failed predictiosn, regarding resources.
“Hansen predicted that droughts would occur in 1 in 3 years by 2030, vs 1 in 20 in the 50s. However, if you look at the NCDC (NOAA) drought index, the 50s were in drought 1 in 2. Also note there is no trend in droughts over the record.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/time-series/index.php?parameter=pmdi&month=11&year=2012&filter=12&state=110&div=0
Arctic ice free by 2013.
The met office record of predictions in 2007. Every year from 2005(?) to 2012 is lower than predicted.
An expert in forescasting principles (he literally wrote the book), says that global warming forecasts violated 72 of 89 relevant forecasting principles.
This guy predicted arctic ice will be gone by 2013.
Figure 1.4 of the AR5 draft (Ch. 1, page 39) shows that te
mperatures since 1998 have been in the lower end of all projections of the IPCC, and that current temperatures are BELOW projections.
Hansen predicted that the largest sea ice reduction would occur near West Antarctica. In 2013, there was record ice in West Antarctica. In 2012, record ice in the entire Antarctic.
Hansen’s seminal 1988 paper, with his 3 scenarios. For 2012, scenario A and B were over 1 deg C above the long term average. Scenario C was at 0.6 deg C. Global temps have been running under even Scenario C….
“From page 1 of the article:
But it does not take a scientist to size up the effects of snowless winters on the children too young to remember the record-setting blizzards of 1996. For them, the pleasures of sledding and snowball fights are as out-of-date as hoop-rolling, and the delight of a snow day off from school is unknown.

Did Oppenheimer state that snow falls would increase in a warming world? No, he waxed nostaligic on something gone. ”
Shepherd, now president of the AMS, predicted that hurricanes would become more intense.
Instead, the hurricane activity in the US, and globally, fell off a cliff, both in numbers and intensity.
The former head of the IPCC and the Met Office predicted 80% less snow for Wales, due to warming.
The BBC and the UCS said that “the winters of our youth are unlikely to return”.
“From Mark Lynas:

. . . snow has become so rare that when it does fall – often just for a few hours – everything grinds to a halt. In early 2003 a ‘mighty’ five-centimetre snowfall in southeast England caused such severe traffic jams that many motorists had to stay in their cars overnight. Today’s kids are missing out . . .


Tim and his many failed predictions on Ozzie drought. It should be noted that it was because of warninsg like Flannery’s, that Australia spent billions on de-salination plants that are no longer needed. Nor was that money spent on dams for flood control, as it was thought to be wasted money.
“From TAR, 12.5.6. Drought
… Using a transient simulation with the NCAR CCMO GCM at coarse resolution (R15) (Meehl and Washington, 1996), Kothavala (1999) found for northeastern and southeastern Australia that the Palmer Drought Severity Index indicated longer and more severe droughts in the transient simulation at about 2xCO2 conditions than in the control simulation…

“The BM’s David Jones, in 2008:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/environment/this-drought-may-never-break/2008/01/03/1198949986473.html
As of this writing (feb 2013), Oz has exactly 0% severe drought (one of 5 lowest). A miniscule portion has Serious (in the bottom 10). ”
2013–“I’m curiously (and a bit nervously) awaiting this year’s minimum. Will it reach the levels we saw in 2012? Or will there be a ‘recovery’ for denialist apologs to crow over? Under 1 million km2 ice–one definition of ‘ice-free’– would be stunning, but is not out of the question..”
The IPCC famous “Glaciers Gone by 2035.”
2013 March, this guy predicts total ice loss between 2013 and 2018.
“Snow is a thing of the past, in 2004, according to a Lib dem.
“”Britons will soon be left with only dreams of a white Christmas, as the chances of it actually happening become more remote. Global warming is the main reason for this shift in seasonal weather and is responsible for changing the world as we know it.

“Schneider predicting, in the next 5 years:
there will likely be another dramatic upward spike like 1992-2000
This was in 2009.”
“Mojib Latif (IPCC) predicted:
“There aren’t going to be winters with strong frosts and lots of snow at our latitudes anymore, like 20 years ago.”

Scottish ski industry is a thing of the past. In 2009.
“This paper was quoted in AR4. Fig 3 shows that expected Antarctic ice extent decline is similar to Arctic. From the paper:
In the SH, the models generally overestimate the amplitude of the seasonal cycle of sea ice extent and display, on average, a negative trend over 1981–2000. This contrasts with the observations that indicate rather a slight increase.
The NRDC predicts a reduction in NE snow fall.
“This Sierra Club blogger predicted that the winter of 2012-13 would be less wintry than 2011-2012, with even less snow. Major fail.
He also predicted that arctic ice would not last through 2013.”
The UK will look like the Med, according to the National Trust. Not in March 2013, it didn’t.
“researchers from the Met Office, in 2012, predicted “”in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record””.

Arctic ice to be gone by 2013.
Hansen, in 1986, predicted 2.5 to 5 degrees of warming by 2010. Ummm…Fail.
Are Cold Winters a Thing of the Past? (2008)
“The Met Office predictions for winter 2013:

For February and March the range of possible outcomes is also very broad, although above average UK mean temperatures become more likely.

Ooops.”
The Met Office warning of a dry spell in 2012; just before the wettest April on record.
The Met Office predicted in dec 2012, that 2013 would be one of the warmest on record, with an anomaly of 0.57 deg C
“Snow on England and Wales highest mountain, may one day be no more than a memory. (2004)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/north_west/4112137.stm
Fast forward to 2013.
Snowdon Mountain Railway will be shut over the Easter weekend after it was hit by 30ft (9.1m) snow drifts.
Workers using two excavators tried but failed to clear the 4.7 mile (7.5km) track.
The railway resumed operations from Llanberis last week after the winter break but they were suspended within days after heavy snow on the mountain.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-north-west-wales-21969488
In Feb 2012, the UK Environment secretary said that drought may be the “new normal”. 2012 ended up being one of the wettest on record.
“This site predicted 4.5 billion deaths by 2012. Oddly, the page is no longer there. Fortunately, a screen cap was caught.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/climate-fail-files/over-4-5-billion-people-could-die-from-global-warming-related-causes-by-2012/
Nearly 60 predictions for winter. Almost all predict less snow, more warmth.
The EPA predicts reduced snow cover.
The British government predicted a major heat wave by 2012, and up to 10,000 deaths.
The 2001 TAR showed no obvious multi-year (>2 years) period where there was a cooling or even flat temps. Definitely a monotonic rise on a decadal scale.
Hubert Lamb’s prediction of a Little Ice Age for Britain, in 1964. Lamb of course, founded the CRU.
“Hansen said temps could rise by 1 degree by 2000, and 2 to 4 degrees in the following decade.He also said that atmospheric CO2 woudl double by the late 2020s. Oops.
Another prediction, from Macquire, is that temps would rise 3 to 8 degrees by 2030, and sea levels 4.5 feet. Going to have to hurry, to reach those numbers.. ”
“FOI request pulled these papers from the Met Office. They are much more circumspect in the briefing papers, then in front of the press. Basically, they have no idea why its hot, dry, wet or cold. Arctic ice loss driving weather? very uncertain…. but this is currently an unknown.

“FAQ 4.1 – Is the Amount of snow and ice on the earth decreasing?
A – Yes. Snow cover is retreating earlier in the spring”
“The predicton in 2009 was that the Scottish ski industry was doomed.
In 2013, they are thinking they may be open in the summer.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/environment/scottish-ski-resorts-eye-summer-season-1-2881471
in 2014, the lifts were UNDER the snow.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-26339994
From 2004 – Polar bears will become so skinny by 2012, that they will be unable to reproduce.
“Most climate models predicted a reduction in Antarctic ice pack. From the paper:
average Antarctic sea ice area is not retreating but has slowly increased since satellite measurements began in 1979. While most climate models from the CMIP5 archive simulate a decrease in Antarctic sea ice area over the recent past…
Al Gore predicted in 2008, that in 5 years, the arctic ice could be gone.
John Kerry, echoing the conclusions of scientists who predict arctic ice to be gone by 2013.
Ms. Fiqueres predicts that 5 billion people will be put into poverty by 2015, through climate change.
All snow will be gone from Mt Snowdon by 2020.
A number of predictions that have proved false, with references.,
May, 2013, Its predicted that the arctic ice will be gone in two years.
This article suggests that the peak will not be production, but demand.
Andrew Dessler predicted in 2011, that for Texas, the rest of the 21st century would be “very much like the hot and dry weather of 2011.”
Hansen predicted in 1986, that temps would rise between 3 and 4 degrees by 2010-2020.
Hansen’s seminal 1988 paper, with his 3 scenarios. For 2012, scenario A and B were over 1 deg C above the long term average. Scenario C was at 0.6 deg C. Global temps have been running under even Scenario C….also predicts hotter summers for Washington and Omaha, with % chance. His summary concludes that over 0.4 deg C is the “smoking gun”.
Predicts ice free arctic by 2015.
the IPCC predictions in 2007, for temperature, precipitation, tropical cyclones and extratropical cyclones.
“Nepstad, in 2009 suggested that AGW was drying the Amazon. Of course, the Amazon has been getting wetter since 1990.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50377/abstract
The last National Assesment of Climate Change used models that perfromed, on average, 1/2 as well as RANDOM NUMBERS.
“Dessler precdicted that Texas would endure permanent drought in the 21st century.
Get used to it. The weather of the 21st century will be very much like the hot and dry weather of 2011.

“In 2009, it was predicted that temepratures would increase, over the next 5 years, and at 150% the rate predicted by the IPCC. Oops. That means it needs to warm up by nearly 0.5 deg C, in 2014.
As solar activity picks up again in the coming years, the research suggests, temperatures will shoot up at 150% of the rate predicted by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
“Hansen predicted that the world would warm 2 degrees in 20 years.
In 1986.”
Sure seems like the MSM and climatologists were predicting an ice age.
First earth day and 15 predictions that never came close to reality.
The Met Office predicted average temperatures for the spring in England of 2013. Which just happened to be the coldest in over 100 years.
Pope predicted, in 2004, that temperatures would rise 0.3 deg by 2014. And 1/2 the years after 2009 will hotter than the record set in 1998.
Arctic sea ice will vanish in 2013.
Met Office failed predictions. I like the one about overstating the warmth 11 out of 12 years.
Ledan and Rind predicted, in 2009, that temps would rise 0.15 deg, which is 50% higher than IPCC rates. With one year to go, both appear to be wrong.
“Hansen predicted in 1988, that the SE US would see above average warming:
there is a tendency in the model for greater than average warming in the southeastern and central U.S. and relatively cooler or less than average warming in the western U.S. and much of Europe in the late 1980s and in the 1990s. …

http://climateaudit.org/2008/01/27/hansen-and-hot-summers-in-the-southeast/
The south eastern US has COOLED over the last 100 years, in all seasons.”
Arctic ice predictions for 2013, by various groups. Note the Met Office predicting the lowest level of ice.
Predcitions that the UK will get a climate, and vegetation, like that in Souhtern France or Portugal.
I don’t think Les was talking about seasons. And yes, the arctic ice is currently at close to the second lowest level and on track to equal or exceed last year’s record breaking melt!

A comparison of 3 successive Met Office predictions for global temperature. There is a drop from the 2010 forecast of 0.9 deg anomaly, to the 2011 forecast of 0.6, to the 2012 forecast of 0.3 deg in 2017.
Serreze predicted that arctic ice would be gone in 5 years, in 2007.
Hansen predicted a 10-40% loss in Antartic ice. (fig 2-4)
Hansen predicted in 1986, that temps would rise 2 deg by 2006, and 3-4 degrees by 2010-2020.
In 2011, Maslowski updated his 2007 forecast of an ice free arctic, to 2016, plus or minus 3 years.
“June 20, 2008
“We’re actually projecting this year that the North Pole may be free of ice for the first time [in history],” David Barber, of the University of Manitoba, told National Geographic News aboard the C.C.G.S. Amundsen, a Canadian research icebreaker.

“Here is a compilation of ice-free Arctic Ocean / North Pole predictions / projections from scientists for the past, present and future.
Xinhua News Agency – 1 March 2008
“If Norway’s average temperature this year equals that in 2007, the ice cap in the Arctic will all melt away, which is highly possible judging from current conditions,” Orheim said.
[Dr. Olav Orheim – Norwegian International Polar Year Secretariat]
__________________
Canada.com – 16 November 2007
“According to these models, there will be no sea ice left in the summer in the Arctic Ocean somewhere between 2010 and 2015.
“And it’s probably going to happen even faster than that,” said Fortier,””
[Professor Louis Fortier – Université Laval, Director ArcticNet]
__________________
National Geographic – 12 December 2007
“NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally said: “At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions.” ”
[Dr. Jay Zwally – NASA]
__________________
BBC – 12 December 2007
“Our projection of 2013 for the removal of ice in summer is not accounting for the last two minima, in 2005 and 2007,”…….”So given that fact, you can argue that may be our projection of 2013 is already too conservative.”
[Professor Wieslaw Maslowski]
__________________
Independent – 27 June 2008
Exclusive: Scientists warn that there may be no ice at North Pole this summer
“…..It is quite likely that the North Pole will be exposed this summer – it’s not happened before,” Professor Wadhams said.”
[Professor Peter Wadhams – Cambridge University]
__________________
Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences
Vol. 40: 625-654 – May 2012
The Future of Arctic Sea Ice
“…..one can project that at this rate it would take only 9 more years or until 2016 ± 3 years to reach a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer. Regardless of high uncertainty associated with such an estimate, it does provide a lower bound of the time range for projections of seasonal sea ice cover…..”
[Professor Wieslaw Maslowski]
__________________
Yale Environment360 – 30 August 2012
“If this rate of melting [in 2012] is sustained in 2013, we are staring down the barrel and looking at a summer Arctic which is potentially free of sea ice within this decade,”
[Dr. Mark Drinkwater]
__________________
Guardian – 17 September 2012
“This collapse, I predicted would occur in 2015-16 at which time the summer Arctic (August to September) would become ice-free. The final collapse towards that state is now happening and will probably be complete by those dates“.
[Professor Peter Wadhams – Cambridge University]
__________________
Sierra Club – March 23, 2013
“For the record—I do not think that any sea ice will survive this summer. An event unprecedented in human history is today, this very moment, transpiring in the Arctic Ocean….”
[Paul Beckwith – PhD student paleoclimatology and climatology – part-time professor]
__________________
Financial Times Magazine – 2 August 2013
“It could even be this year or next year but not later than 2015 there won’t be any ice in the Arctic in the summer,”
[Professor Peter Wadhams – Cambridge University]

Some claim the IPCC does not make predictions. This shows exactly where they did make predictions.
“CCSM4 models al predict declining Antarctic sea ice.
In twentieth-century integrations, Antarctic sea ice area exhibits significant decreasing annual trends in all six ensemble members from 1950 to 2005, in apparent contrast to observations that suggest a modest ice area increase since 1979.
“CMIP5 models predict declining sea ice. This paper balmes the differenc e between model and real world as “”natural variability””.
http://www.columbia.edu/~lmp/paps/polvani+smith-GRL-2013.pdf
“Predictions made to 2065, with and without ozone forcings.
Sea ice extent declines in both ensembles, as a consequence of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations
“Once again, “”natural variability””.
In contrast to Arctic sea ice, average Antarctic sea ice area is not retreating but has slowly increased since satellite measurements began in 1979. While most climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) archive simulate a decrease in Antarctic sea ice area over the recent past, whether these models can be dismissed as being wrong depends on more than just the sign of change compared to observations
“Again, the IPCC models of choice, CMIP5, show different results than real world.
all of the models have a negative trend in SIE since the mid-nineteenth century. The negative SIE trends in most of the model runs over 1979–2005 are a continuation of an earlier decline, suggesting that the processes responsible for the observed increase over the last 30 years are not being simulated correctly.

Predictions of arctic ice extent. Use the list at the left, to go back to different years, 2008 and on.
Hansen predicted in 1986, that temps would rise 1/2 to 1 deg F by 2000, and 2-4 deg F by 2010. Fail.
Jan 4, 2008. “This drought may never break”. Over the last 24 months (to Aug 2013), about 99% of Oz is NOT in drought.
“It was predicted that due to rising sea levels, the Maldives drinking water would be gone in 4 years, and the islands completely swamped in 30 years.
This prediction was made in 1988.”
The UKCIP predicted in 2009, based on Met Office data, that the UK would get warmer; summers warmer and drier; winters warmer and wetter. Fail.
Hansens BAU was Scenario A, not the revionist Scenario B.
Maslowski’s latest prediction of an ice free arctic is 2016, after his 2013 guess was obviously wrong.
“Oops. Met office could not make an accurate decadal prediction, nearly 1/2 way through the period….
Our results also suggest that studies of the Arctic climate based on reanalyses should be undertaken with extreme caution.””

The many predictions of food shortages.
Viner again making silly predictions. You would think that someone who worked for a Climate Research Unit, would know that the UK has tornadoes, and that per sq mile, it is the most active country on earth for those storms, albeit weak ones.
Flannery also predicted that the arctic would be ice free by 2013.
Hansen, in 1986, predicted 3 to 4 degrees F of warming, between 2010 and 2020.
Maslowski predicts that ice will disappear by as early as 2016.
Krugman predicted in 1998, that the Internet would turn out to have no more impact than the fax machine. And that IT jobs would evaporate.
“The TAR had this to say about predictions of climate:
In sum, a strategy must recognise what is possible. In climate research and modelling, we should recognise that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore that the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.
The Met Office has been wrong 13 of the last 14 years, in temperture predictions, and always on the high side. Its also already been shown that ithe MO prediction that half the years from 2010-2015 would be records, to be wrong. And with 2 full years to go, and on a 6 year prediction.
Hansen’s 1981 paper shows only about 0.1 deg of warming in 1940. The historfical record in 1997 shows about 0.5, so out by a factor of 5. Projecting out to 2010, there should be 1 deg of warming. Warming is about 0.6, Fail.
“Skiing is doomed in Scotland. 2009 prediction.
2014 reality, the chair lifts are buried.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-26088292
Viner again predciting the end, but of the ski industry, in 2004.
“Matt England, explaining less than 2 years ago (2012), that global warming was right on track with IPCC projections.
http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2012/s3650773.htm
Less than 2 years later, he says temps have remained steady since 2001, due to an increasing trade wind.
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2106.html
At least we have a date. He says this hiatus could persist till the end of the decade.”
“Once again, the MO screws it up. This is the winter precipitation forecast from November 2013.

The probability that UK precipitation for December-January-February will fall into the driest of our five categories is around 25% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest category is around 15% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).”
“This writer uses January Leading Indicators (JLI) to predict the coming year temps. This is a stock market tool, but looking at past JLI, the accuracy is not bad, with RSS and UAH coming in at about 80% correct when using JLI.
Using JLI the temps would come in at 0.231 for UAH, and 0.214 for RSS, for the average temps for 2014.
The MO predicts between 0.43 and 0.71.
Hansen predicts 2014 to be warmer than 2013, and perhaps the warmest on record. 2015 will be warmer yet.”
Some predictions for ENSO in 2014-2105, and also for record temperatures.
The NOAA scored -22 on a scale of -50 to 100, with 100 being totally right, and -50 being monkeys throwing darts. The Sept 2013 forecast for Oct-Dec was even worse, -23.
The Met Office predicted below average precipitation for DJF. Of course, they changed the title once the floods hit (see Google cache). Link to Met Office document is also there.
“One more guy worried about snow fall for the ski industry. I guess he never looked outside. From a paper 2 weeks later.
http://denver.cbslocal.com/2014/03/02/loveland-ski-area-surpasses-300-inches-of-snow/
“In 2009, experts warned that people from the south would soon flood northern cities, to escape a warming climate. But even warmists like Krugman know that people like the warmth, and are moving there.
http://www.globalwarming.org/2014/03/04/voting-with-their-feet-warmer-is-better/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+globalwarmingorg+%28GlobalWarming.org%29
More on Tim’s amazingly bad predictions. Now apparently, he is trying to deny that he said what he is recorded as saying.
“One prediction using January Leading Indicators (JLI, a financial model), and the Met Office predictions.
MO prediction is between 0.43 and 0.71 deg above the 1961-1990 average, with a mean of 0.57 deg C
An average of HadCRUT4, GISS and NOAA, using JLI, gives 0.537
Qualitative JLI gives a warmer 2014, vs 2013. Quantatative JLI gives a cooler 2014 vs 2013.”
Multiple predictions by this scientist on how the reef was doomed. Then a few months or years later, and he is “surprised” or “overjoyed” at how it recovered.
“Not only can economists not predict the future, they could not predict the present.
It is interesting to see that economists also predicted that countries with more regulations, woul do better in in recovering from the crisis. As it turned out, the cost of the regulations were greater than any benefit. In other words, the regulations, rather than helping, hindered the ability of business to recover.
Bonus quote:
In an autobiographical essay published 20 years ago, the left-leaning economist Kenneth Arrow recalled entering the Army as a statistician and weather specialist during World War II. “Some of my colleagues had the responsibility of preparing long-range weather forecasts, i.e., for the following month,” Arrow wrote. “The statisticians among us subjected these forecasts to verification and found they differed in no way from chance.”
Alarmed, Arrow and his colleagues tried to bring this important discovery to the attention of the commanding officer. At last the word came down from a high-ranking aide.
“The Commanding General is well aware that the forecasts are no good,” the aide said haughtily. “However, he needs them for planning purposes.”

Mann predicts that temps wil rise above 2 deg C by 2036. If temps were to up in a linear fashion, the temperature anomaly will be 1 deg C by 2020.
“Hansen predicted in 2006, that a Super el Nino would form, in 2006. Fail.
He also tries to back out his famous 1988 predictions, where in 1988, the A scenario was BAU; in 2006 it becomes “”on the high side of reality””. In his original paper, he calls it the high side of reality, because of finite resource concerns, even though Scenario A only uses a 1.5% per year increases, vs. the 4% measured in the past century.
In 1988, Scenario B was with some cuts in emissions; in 2006 it becomes “”most plausible””, even though no cuts occured. But, yes, it is called “”most plausible”” in the 1988 paper, but again, due to finite resources.
http://www.klimaskeptiker.info/download/1988_Hansen_etal.pdf
In 2008, Hansen predicted the arctic would be ice free in 5 to 10 years.
“Arctic ice will be gone by 2015, according to this IPCC review editor, in 2013.
In 2012, he had it a little later, at 2016.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/sep/17/arctic-collapse-sea-ice

they fail the prove predict model of science. Which is why they don’t want to talk about the science but about what is to be done to prevent ‘catastrophe’ .

Les Johnson

Anthony: I know I had a lot of URLs in the previous post, so it will get hung up.
If you want I can also give the remaining references I have for those predictions.

Tim Churchill

No tadpoles yet, in fact the frogs were late mating this year!

Jimbo

Here is a tip for anyone creating any long lists pertaining to challenging ‘climate science’. Remember Warmists will take a look and try to shoot it down by saying “Oh, but they aren’t even scientists but actors” or “but they didn’t actually say that as it’s not quoted” blah, blah. This is why, unless it is warranted like weather events / headlines, I try to stick long lists with exact quotes and / or scientists, peer reviewed abstracts.
Ordinary references in comments is OK, but if you are going to make fun of them watch out for the holes. 😉
Here is a list I made in 2011 on WUWT. I learned a few things too. 😉
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/04/03/the-big-self-parodying-climate-change-blame-list/

Way to go Sasha! Bookmarked!

Bruce Cobb

#74 is a repeat of #35 – the famous Viner quote.

The Ghost Of Big Jim Cooley

35 and 74 are the same, but then David Viner was being a complete arse, so it deserves repeating.

Ray

Anthony,
it would be great if such a list (complete with references and all) was in your “Climate FAIL Files” menu up there…

Walt The Physicist

So, friends, when will we unite and denounce all those predictors as fake and unprofessional scientists? When we all will force their dismissal? All of you know, that they continue “teaching” students, rejecting articles with real scientific content, converting professional societies into “Hollywood” like environment, drawing huge salaries in their tenured academic positions, and impeding scientific progress by overtaking review panels in the science funding agencies…

The Motl quote should likely by Daniel Patrick Moynihan. See http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/07/03/moynihan-nixon-global-warming_n_634526.html

Thanks to Sasha for her delightful list. Perhaps some entrepreneur can be persuaded to establish a climate futures market wherein people on both sides of the controversy will have the opportunity to put their own skin in the game. This will have a number of salutary effects.
Warmists will be able to take one side of the futures contracts and deniers will be able to take the other side. People and institutions who express strong opinions without being willing to gamble on the outcomes of climatological events will be exposed as charlatans. The opportunity to profit from reliable predictions will improve the reliability. The global warming research program will become self-supporting from the profits on trades.

JimS

Rarely do I side with the AGW point of view, but to call these “failed predictions” is really stretching it. Some are notable, but very few.

G. Karst

Should’t these be filed under the “Climate Fail” tab on the site banner. After all, it is sparsely populated at the moment (2). GK

Details, details.
You gotta look at the big picture and not let facts get in the way of the warmunist agenda.
For every misstatement above, I’m sure the warmunists could provide a reason why global warming was at fault and validates their position.

Resourceguy

Definitely a keep, but the failed predictions after this point will still grow exponentially anyway because we live in the era of anti-learning and anti-empirical evidence, right NYT, BBC, and others?

Jimbo

Actually, if you think about it, these nut cases are making predictions right now. Just look at the reactions to the IPCC report in the media. Never make predictions, especially about the future.
I have been keeping a special file open with quotes from Professor Peter Wadhams of Cambridge University and continue to look for more. I am waiting excitedly for an ice free Arctic ocean in September 2015 and 2016 – because he made a flexible and rigid prediction. I suspect he is going to go under the radar for the next few years or take early retirement. Old fool. 😉

Jimbo

G. Karst says:
April 2, 2014 at 12:10 pm
Should’t these be filed under the “Climate Fail” tab on the site banner. After all, it is sparsely populated at the moment (2). GK

I think with that page they have to have given a fixed date beyond which they fail. That’s why Wadhams is of interest to me, he gave a last date of 2016 for an ice free Arctic. The other regarding milder winters are of course wrong when they said this is exactly the kind of mild winter the models projected. Now we see they are wrong but no date was given. They can argue just minor fluctuations and noise.
Viner has kind of given a date. He basically said that we would be taken by surprise by snow in about 20 years time. We were taken by surprise after 9 years! But again they can wiggle a bit with that too.

Jimbo

Don’t forget Ehrlich and his failed predictions.
Don’t forget the missing 50 million climate refugees.
Don’t forget the Great Moments in Failed Predictions [WUWT]

Les Johnson

My favorite prediction story, albeit on economics.
Not only can economists not predict the future, they could not predict the present.
It is interesting to see that economists also predicted that countries with more regulations, would do better in in recovering from the crisis. As it turned out, the cost of the regulations were greater than any benefit. In other words, the regulations, rather than helping, hindered the ability of business to recover.
Bonus quote:
In an autobiographical essay published 20 years ago, the left-leaning economist Kenneth Arrow recalled entering the Army as a statistician and weather specialist during World War II. “Some of my colleagues had the responsibility of preparing long-range weather forecasts, i.e., for the following month,” Arrow wrote. “The statisticians among us subjected these forecasts to verification and found they differed in no way from chance.”
Alarmed, Arrow and his colleagues tried to bring this important discovery to the attention of the commanding officer. At last the word came down from a high-ranking aide.
“The Commanding General is well aware that the forecasts are no good,” the aide said haughtily. “However, he needs them for planning purposes.”

via Junk Science
http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/wrong-again_784910.html

groovyman67

This list should be more thoroughly completed, continually updated, and have the names and employer of each listed. Then nailed on the door of every high school, college, university, news station, et al as the ‘107 theses’. If there is no accountability for these predictions there is no stopping them.
Since there is no desire for accountability, rather a desire to cover up, among the warmists (formerly coolists) perhaps the route to go is loud, obnoxious and ongoing predictions of 0 degree temperature change by 2034, ice caps will be almost exactly the same in 2064. This will only work if the manner in which it is presented draws attention, since it’s not fearmongering it will be considered non-newsworthy.

Jimbo

Les Johnson says:
April 2, 2014 at 12:41 pm
Jimbo: wadhams actually ice being gone by 2013.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7139797.stm

Les, I think he was referring to Professor Wieslaw Maslowski’s prediction. He said it was a good model but did not predict the end of Arctic ice on a given date. The other 2 links I have in my files.

BBC – 2007
Wadhams
“In the end, it will just melt away quite suddenly. It might not be as early as 2013 but it will be soon, much earlier than 2040.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7139797.stm

As you can see he did not fail as he said ‘might’. However, since then he has given 2 dates beyond which his prediction fails. See below.

Daily Telegraph – 8 November 2011
Arctic sea ice ‘to melt by 2015’
Prof Wadhams said: “His [model] is the most extreme but he is also the best modeller around.
“It is really showing the fall-off in ice volume is so fast that it is going to bring us to zero very quickly. 2015 is a very serious prediction and I think I am pretty much persuaded that that’s when it will happen.”
Financial Times Magazine – 2 August 2013
“It could even be this year or next year but not later than 2015 there won’t be any ice in the Arctic in the summer,”
——-
The Scotsman – 12 September 2013
Arctic sea ice will vanish within three years, says expert
“The entire ice cover is now on the point of collapse.
“The extra open water already created by the retreating ice allows bigger waves to be generated by storms, which are sweeping away the surviving ice. It is truly the case that it will be all gone by 2015. The consequences are enormous and represent a huge boost to global warming.”
—–
Guardian – 17 September 2012
This collapse, I predicted would occur in 2015-16 at which time the summer Arctic (August to September) would become ice-free. The final collapse towards that state is now happening and will probably be complete by those dates“.
[Professor Peter Wadhams – Cambridge University]

PaulH

It is important to remember the names and faces of the people who caused all of this CAGW mayhem.

Jimbo

JimS says:
April 2, 2014 at 12:10 pm
Rarely do I side with the AGW point of view, but to call these “failed predictions” is really stretching it. Some are notable, but very few.

As long as the weather and climate don’t co-operate then each year the more and more fall into the failed predictions camp. Climate is 30 years. So anyone who did not give a specific date before a 30 year time span will extremely likely go into the failed camp. Think about it.

Les Johnson

Jimbo: Yes, you are correct. I have corrected my database. It was Maslowksi, not Wadham.

RoHa

What? Nothing from out much beloved Tim Flannery?

stargazer

First it was global cooling. Next global warming. Next anthropogenic global warming. Followed by catastrophic anthropogenic global warming, which then morphed into …. climate change. Next on the list: CO2 induced Anthropogenic Globally Local Atmospheric Non-Periodic Variability.
Maybe I should copyright that to prevent it from being used.

Les Johnson

RoHa: Go back a bit to my LOOONNNGG posting at 11:46. I have several Flannery predictions in there.
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/why_is_flannery_still_climate_commissioner/
Tim and his many failed predictions on Ozzie drought. It should be noted that it was because of warninsg like Flannery’s, that Australia spent billions on de-salination plants that are no longer needed. Nor was that money spent on dams for flood control, as it was thought to be wasted money.
http://web.archive.org/web/20120106132816/http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/scienceshow/business-leaders-discuss-climate/3273738
Flannery also predicted that the arctic would be ice free by 2013.
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/flannery_denies_what_he_actually_said/
More on Tim’s amazingly bad predictions. Now apparently, he is trying to deny that he said what he is recorded as saying.

Les Johnson

Jimbo: your
Don’t forget the missing 50 million climate refugees.
I was involved in that discussion, but here:
http://asiancorrespondent.com/52189/what-happened-to-the-climate-refugees/
I found one of the original UN documents that was the source of that claim. Not only that, but I found it was written by Nick Nuttal, who also in the comments, said he could find no such document.

Great information from the OP and other posters.
Question:
Is there a similar list of skeptical failed predictions or are the climate skeptics too “proper science minded” to make unfounded predictions?

Fox

[SNIP see site policy, you are welcome to resubmit without the insulting phrase at the end -mod]

My monies on the next turn of the wheel being ocean acidification.
From Global Warming (it didn’t) to Climate Change (it does naturally) to ocean acidification through over increase in CO2 content.
You wont win any argument with any religious zealot. They have FAITH, you do not.