Another massive cold wave headed for Eastern US next week to put temperature 20 degrees below normal
Senior WeatherBell Meteorologist Joe Bastardi commented:
I am 58.. never seen anything close to this for late March.
and
[The] pattern next week has as much extreme potential for the time of the year as I can find. Coldest opening to calender spring in 50 yrs at least.
Weather forecast models such as the ECMWF and NCEP, both of which have had good track records this year in identifying polar vortex outbreaks in advance, are now forecasting a massive cold blast for the beginning of spring. See maps:
Dr. Ryan Maue commented on this forecast from ECMWF:
ECMWF 12z (WMO-Essential) 850-hPa temperature + wind streams. Final 10-day outcome after 2nd Arctic blast. Brutal.
He added:
Canadian ensemble system looks like other guidance at 7-days as well. This cake is baked. Arctic blast to end March
…
If Lake Michigan can open up a bit, then this cold could drop enormous amounts of Lake Effect snow on Lower Peninsula of Michigan.
Anyone remember the “hole in the ozone layer”? What ever happened to that?
the weatherman has never saw nothing like this because they are manipulating the weather now like they did with the super bowl. In the middle of an artic blast it warmed to 50 degrees for the game and started snowing 3 hours after the game
[HAARP deleted per site policy. Mod]
This bitter cold winter just wont end!
Thank god for global warming or we all would have frozen solid in PA this year……….
Joe,
You are a real Bastardi of a weather man…it’s supposed to be Spring!!!
Oh, Al? Al? Hey, where’s Al? I guess he flew off to some warm place in his fuel-guzzling private jet… to count the quarter of a Billion dollars he’s made off his scam so far.
Meanwhile the Whitehouse insist the problem is warming. They don’t believe because they don’t pay the heating bill-WE DO! I JUST HAD THE HIGHEST HEATING BILL IN MY LIFE!
Where were you in ’77 or ’93 or ’95 Joe? I can remember negative temps and blizzards from each of those years. Drama queen…
(C)hocoholic – It’s still there just as it has been for as long as we’ve been able to detect it. And all indications are that it’s a long term natural phenomenon which explains why the weather Nazis have neglected it in their diatribes, they don’t like facts that dispute their fantasies.
Has anyone checked out HAARP lately?
See what THAT is capable of.
Real scary stuff indeed. One more secretive government site.
REPLY: Why yes, we HAVE checked it out lately. Normally, by site policy, I don’t allow discussion of HAARP conspiracy theory, (because, you know, insane) but let me take this opportunity to point out to you and your fellow nutters that HAARP is CLOSED:
Extreme irony – EPA rules shut down the mother of all weather conspiracy theories
So no, HAARP has no effect on the current weather, and never could have since the amounts of energy it emits into the atmosphere is several orders of magnitude lower than a single common summer thunderstorm.
Do try to keep up. – Anthony
(now we wait for the inevitable: “closed? that’s what they WANT you to think)
It’s the warming that makes it cold. Just keep repeating that.
According to a scientific article from Stanford University, “GLOBAL WARMING: A Boon to Humans and Other Animals”, http://www.stanford.edu/~moore/Boon_To_Man.html, Thomas Gale Moore, Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution, (the complete version was published later in 1995 in the Hoover Institution Working Paper series), around 6,000 years ago the earth sustained temperatures that were probably more than four degrees Fahrenheit hotter than those of the twentieth century, yet mankind flourished. The Sahara desert bloomed with plants, and water loving animals such as hippopotamuses wallowed in rivers and lakes. Dense forests carpeted Europe from the Alps to Scandinavia. The Midwest of the United States was somewhat drier than it is today, similar to contemporary western Kansas or eastern Colorado; but Canada enjoyed a warmer climate and more rainfall.
From around 800 A.D. to 1200 or 1300, the globe warmed considerably and civilization prospered. This Little Climate Optimum generally displays, although less distinctly, many of the same characteristics as the first climate optimum.[100] Virtually all of northern Europe, the British Isles, Scandinavia, Greenland, and Iceland were considerably warmer than at present. The Mediterranean, the Near East, and North Africa, including the Sahara, received more rainfall than they do today.[101] North America enjoyed better weather during most of this period. China during the early part of this epoch experienced higher temperatures and a more clement climate. From Western Europe to China, East Asia, India, and the Americas, mankind flourished as never before.
Evidence for the medieval warming comes from contemporaneous reports on weather conditions, from oxygen isotope measurements taken from the Greenland ice, from upper tree lines in Europe, and from sea level changes. These all point to a more benign, warmer, climate with more rainfall but because of more evaporation less standing water. Not only did northern Europe enjoy more rainfall but the Mediterranean littoral was wetter. An early twelfth century bridge with twelve arches which still exists over the river Oreto at Palermo exceeds the needs of the small trickle of water that flows there now.[102] According to Arab geographers two rivers in Sicily that are too small for boats were navigable during this period.[103] In England at the same time, medieval water mills on streams that today carry too little water to turn them attest to greater rainfall. Although England apparently received more rainfall than in modern times, the warm weather led to more drying out of the land. Support for a more temperate climate in central Europe comes from the period in which German colonists founded villages. As average temperatures rose people established towns at higher elevations. Early settlements were under 650 feet in altitude; those from a later period were between 1,000 and 1,300 feet high; and those built after 1,100 were located above 1,300 feet.[104]
H. H. Lamb counted manuscript reports of flooding and wet years in Italy.[105] He discovered that starting in the latter part of the tenth century, the number of wet years climbed steadily, reaching a peak around 1300. Over the same period northern Europe was enjoying warmer and more clement weather. Not only was the temperature higher than now in Europe during the twelfth and thirteenth century but the population enjoyed mild wet winters. In the Mediterranean it was moist as well with summer thunderstorms frequently reported.[106]
Studies have shown that some areas became drier during these centuries. In particular, the Caspian Sea was apparently four meters — over 13 feet — lower from the ninth through the eleventh century than currently.[107] After 1200 A.D. the elevation of the lake rose sharply for the next two or three hundred years.[108] In the Asian steppes, warm periods with fine summers and often little snow in the winter produced lake levels that were low by modern standards.[109] A recent study of tree rings in California’s Sierra Nevada and Patagonia concluded that the “Golden State” suffered from extreme droughts from around 900 to 1100 and again from 1210 to 1350 while the tip of South America during the first 200 years also enjoyed little precipitation.[110]
The timing of the medieval warm spell, which lasted no more than 300 years, was not synchronous around the globe. For much of North America, for Greenland and in Russia, the climate was warmer between 950 and 1200.[111] The warmest period in Europe appears to have been later, roughly between 1150 and 1300, although parts of the tenth century were quite warm. Evidence from New Zealand indicates peak temperatures from 1200 to 1400. Data on the Far East is meager but mixed. Judging from the number of severe winters reported by century in China, the climate was somewhat warmer than normal in the ninth, tenth, and eleventh centuries, cold in the twelfth and thirteenth and very cold in the fourteenth. Chinese scholar Chu Ko-chen reports that the eighth and ninth centuries were warmer and received more rainfall, but that the climate deteriorated significantly in the twelfth century.[112] He found records, however, that show that the first half of the thirteenth century was quite clement and very cold weather returned in the fourteenth century.[113] Another historian found on the basis of records of major floods and droughts that between the ninth and eleventh century China suffered much fewer of these calamities than during the fourteenth through the seventeenth.[114] The evidence for Japan is based on records of the average April day on which the cherry trees bloomed in the royal gardens in Kyoto. From this record, the tenth century springs were warmer than normal; in the eleventh century they were cooler; the twelfth century experienced the latest springs; the thirteenth century was average and then the fourteenth was again colder than normal.[115] This record suggests that the Little Climate Optimum began in Asia in the eighth or ninth centuries and continued into the eleventh. The warm climate moved west, reaching Russia and central Asia in the tenth through the eleventh, and Europe from the twelfth to the fourteenth. Some climatologists have theorized that the Mini Ice Age also started in the Far East in the twelfth century and spread westward reaching Europe in the fourteenth.[116]
Are you people seriously advancing the idea of climate manipulation? Really? And I did not realize there were still people out there who don’t understand that “global warming” is an average and it causes extreme weather, both hot and cold, wet and dry. This comments section reads like an Onion article making fun of Americans.
Just think how cold it would be if it were not for Global Warming.
I wonder how much of this cold can be attributed to the EPA reduction of coal burning power plants in the middle of the country???
Jason is correct. Nobody here commenting has any qualifications, and 97% of climate scientists, you know, the people who study the climate as their ENTIRE CAREER are saying that it’s real, and man-made.
If you went to the doctor, and he said there’s a 97% chance that dark spot on your x-ray is cancer, wouldn’t you take him seriously? Or would you tell him that he’s part of a global conspiracy to get you on cancer drugs?
Also to whoever said climate change is the religion of the stupid, I feel sorry for you that you have no idea how stupid that statement reads. Religion is the religion of the stupid. Pretending there’s a magic man in the clouds watching over your every move, reading your thoughts and such, THAT’S stupid. Also you have no evidence to back your claim, unlike climate scientists.
Everyone here denying global warming should realize they’re just stooges for the fossil fuel industry. Even if you don’t believe in man-made climate change, don’t you want cleaner air and water? Isn’t that something you can support?
@Christopher hitchens – how someone can be wrong with every word they write.
#1 – Everyone here has qualifications. Some may be more impressive than others, but everyone here has a brain and the powers of observation (with the possible exception of yourself).
#2 – 97% of no one has said anything. Again, you use a figure pulled out of a nether region and quote it like a fact. It is not a fact. The ONLY thing you can say about the Doran Zimmerman study is that 75 of 77 people polled (there is no guarantee they are scientists in climate or any other area) – out of over 10,000 – agreed with a statement that supports the AGW meme. It is not scientific, nor is it “qualified” to be used for anything more than a bird cage liner.
Science is not a popularity contest. There have been many major breakthroughs when the conscious of scientist was against it, most recently was the causes of ulcers. When a scientific law is proven then I will believe. Scientific law has proven that water freezes at 32 so if some scientist says it melts below 32, then he was probably smoking something illegal except Colorado and his degree should be revolked!
Reply to Christopher Hitchens: Whether or not anyone commenting here has qualifications, laypersons with understanding and knowledge know the history of climate change and realize when they are being defrauded and bamboozled by pseudo-scientists. You sound like one of the members of the Catholic Church who discredited Galileo for stating the sun was the center of the solar system (heliocentrism). You must think everyone is stupid if they don’t have a certain degree or certain level of education.
A reading of the historical nature of Earth’s climate is all that is needed to show that climate scientists are wrong. I took science in high school and college and I was always taught to question everything. So, now you believe scientists who tell you that global warming is caused by man without even challenging their analysis. There is also a large body of climate scientists who do not believe global warming is a man-made problem.
That Scientific Global Warming Consensus…Not! – Forbes
By Larry Bell
So where did that famous “consensus” claim that “98% of all scientists believe in global warming” come from? It originated from an endlessly reported 2009 American Geophysical Union (AGU) survey consisting of an intentionally brief two-minute, two question online survey sent to 10,257 earth scientists by two researchers at the University of Illinois. Of the about 3.000 who responded, 82% answered “yes” to the second question, which like the first, most people I know would also have agreed with.
Then of those, only a small subset, just 77 who had been successful in getting more than half of their papers recently accepted by peer-reviewed climate science journals, were considered in their survey statistic. That “98% all scientists” referred to a laughably puny number of 75 of those 77 who answered “yes”.
That anything-but-scientific survey asked two questions. The first: “When compared with pre-1800s levels, do you think that mean global temperatures have generally risen, fallen, or remained relatively constant?” Few would be expected to dispute this…the planet began thawing out of the “Little Ice Age” in the middle 19th century, predating the Industrial Revolution. (That was the coldest period since the last real Ice Age ended roughly 10,000 years ago.)
The second question asked: “Do you think human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures?” So what constitutes “significant”? Does “changing” include both cooling and warming… and for both “better” and “worse”? And which contributions…does this include land use changes, such as agriculture and deforestation?
The Latest Meteorologist Survey Destroys The Global Warming Climate ‘Consensus’
by James M. Taylor November 25, 2013
Barely half of American Meteorological Society meteorologists believe global warming is occurring and humans are the primary cause, a newly released study reveals. The survey results comprise the latest in a long line of evidence indicating the often asserted global warming consensus does not exist.
The American Meteorological Society, working with experts at George Mason University and Yale University, emailed all AMS members for whom the AMS had a mailing address (excluding associate members and student members) and asked them to fill out an online survey on global warming. More than 1,800 AMS meteorologists filled out the survey, providing a highly representative view of scientists with meteorological, climatological, and atmospheric science expertise.
The central question in the survey consisted of two parts: “Is global warminghappening? If so, what is its cause?” Answer options were:
Yes: Mostly human
Yes: Equally human and natural
Yes: Mostly natural
Yes: Insufficient evidence [to determine cause]
Yes: Don’t know cause
Don’t know if global warming is happening
Global warming is not happening
Just 52 percent of survey respondents answered Yes: Mostly human. The other 48 percent either questioned whether global warming is happening or would not ascribe human activity as the primary cause.
Importantly, the survey addressed merely one of the necessary components of a human-induced global warming crisis. The survey did not ask whether temperatures are warmer than those of the Medieval Warm Period or other recent warm periods, did not ask whether temperatures are warming at a rapid pace, did not ask whether recent warming has been harmful or beneficial and did not ask whether transforming our energy economy would stop global warming or pass a cost/benefit test. Certainly, many of the 52 percent of meteorologists who believe humans are primarily responsible for some warming would nevertheless question some of these other necessary components of a human-induced global warming crisis.
In short, the news for global warming activists is far worse than the survey results showing barely half of meteorologists believe humans are primarily responsible for some global warming. The reality is when you factor in the other necessary components of a global warming crisis, clearly less than half of American Meteorological Society meteorologists believe in the frequently asserted global warming crisis.
Mind you, this is a survey of scientists with targeted atmospheric science expertise and who have demonstrated the skills and experience to qualify for AMS membership. This isn’t a poll of chemists or engineers, nor is it a position statement put together by a dozen or so members of a scientific group’s bureaucracy; it is a poll of more than 1,800 atmospheric scientists.
While these survey results should have a seismic impact in the global warming debate, they shouldn’t come as a surprise. The evidence of a sharp scientific disagreement in the global warming debate has been building for years.
Chinese Academy of Sciences Vice President Ding Zhongli explained human activity is not the only factor causing global warming and we don’t know how to assign relative weight to human and natural warming factors. “Up to now not a single scientist has figured out the weight ratio of each factor on global temperature change,” he wrote., “The phenomenon observed today, in particular the temporary rise of global temperature, is the result of the natural rhythm of climate change.”)
According to the American Physical Society, “There is a considerable presence within the scientific community of people who do not agree with the IPCC conclusion” of a global warming crisis.
According to the Director of the Center for Sun-Climate Research at the Danish Space Research Institute at the Danish National Space Center, we have recently experienced “the highest solar activity we have had in at least 1,000 years.”
This led to the Voice of Russia reporting, “Global warming is coming to an end: In the coming years the temperature over the entire planet will fall and the cooling will provide a character of relief. This is the conclusion reached by Russian scientists from the Physics University of the Russian Academy of Science.”
Scientific truth is determined by facts, evidence and observations – not a show of hands. If a show of hands determined scientific truth, medical doctors would still be bleeding people with leeches and we would still believe the sun revolves around the earth. Nevertheless, there may be times when political leaders feel compelled to give special consideration to an overwhelming scientific majority when that overwhelming majority reaches strong agreement on a matter of serious public concern.
Global warming activists claim a serious public concern presently exists and the overwhelming majority of scientists agrees humans are creating a global warming crisis. The survey of AMS meteorologists, however, shows no such overwhelming majority exists. Indeed, to the extent we can assign a majority scientific opinion to whether all the necessary components of a global warming crisis exist, the AMS survey shows the majority does not agree humans are creating a global warming crisis.
The results of this new survey may not come as a surprise to those following the global warming debate, but it is a piece of evidence with seismic importance in the ongoing political debate.
[Originally published on Forbes]
Tags:American Meteorological SocietyAmerican Physical SocietyAMSatmosphereCenter for Sun-climate ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesClimateclimate changeDin Zhonglienvironmental scienceGeorge Mason Universityglobal warmingIPCCMedieval Warm PeriodRussian Academy of ScienceYale University
James M. Taylor
— James M. Taylor
James M. Taylor is a senior fellow for environmental policy at The Heartland Institute and managing editor of Environment & Climate News, a national monthly publication devoted to sound science and free-market environmentalism with a circulation of approximately 75,000 readers. He is also senior fellow for The Heartland Institute focusing on environmental issues. He is author of What Climate Scientists Think about Global Warming (Heartland Institute, 2007) and coauthor of State Greenhouse Gas Programs: An Economic and Scientific Analysis (Heartland Institute, 2003) and New Source Review: An Evaluation of EPA’s Reform Recommendations (Heartland Institute, 2002). He has presented environmental analysis on the CBS Evening News, CNN, and Fox News Channel; on numerous national radio programs; and in virtually every major newspaper in the country. Taylor received his bachelor’s degree from Dartmouth College and his law degree from the Syracuse University College of Law, where he was president of the local chapter of the Federalist Society and founder and editor-in-chief of the Federalist Voice.
I am always amazed at how much the shape of these Vortexs resemble the Laurentide Ice Sheet.
Christopher Hichens: “97% of climate scientists….”
World Class Fail.
No global warming…more like God warning! It is all in the Bible, Enoch 1 and others what was to come! Winter would last 3 more months, drought would dry up cities while others would get some rain. Earthquakes, tsunamis, signs in the Moon (4 Blood Moon Te trad on Jewish Festival for 2014 – 2015) and so………………………..much……………..more!!!!!!!! Read it is the only book that foretold everything and 100% is and will come to pass. No other religious book can match it. Not even close!
It is HAARP at it again!!!
[ sorry, no. HAARP has been closed down see http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/07/16/extreme-irony-epa-rules-shut-down-the-mother-of-all-weather-conspiracy-theories/ -mod]
[Regardless of their locations, the HAARP’s new locations are not discussed here on WUWT. Mod]
Bumbotsays says:
March 18, 2014 at 8:42 pm
> If the temperatures were in Fahrenheit, the charts would make more sense to the average Person.
This is an international blog. While most of the readers here are American, I would hope that we have more familiarity with Celcius reports than most non-American readers have with Fahrenheit. In my comments I’ll often supply both.
Spend more time reading weather model output, you’ll get up to speed with Celcius without much effort.