Another massive cold wave headed for Eastern US next week to put temperature 20 degrees below normal
Senior WeatherBell Meteorologist Joe Bastardi commented:
I am 58.. never seen anything close to this for late March.
and
[The] pattern next week has as much extreme potential for the time of the year as I can find. Coldest opening to calender spring in 50 yrs at least.
Weather forecast models such as the ECMWF and NCEP, both of which have had good track records this year in identifying polar vortex outbreaks in advance, are now forecasting a massive cold blast for the beginning of spring. See maps:
Dr. Ryan Maue commented on this forecast from ECMWF:
ECMWF 12z (WMO-Essential) 850-hPa temperature + wind streams. Final 10-day outcome after 2nd Arctic blast. Brutal.
He added:
Canadian ensemble system looks like other guidance at 7-days as well. This cake is baked. Arctic blast to end March
…
If Lake Michigan can open up a bit, then this cold could drop enormous amounts of Lake Effect snow on Lower Peninsula of Michigan.
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Note how the center of the cold blast is right over New Hampshire! We’re probably going to break another low temperature record tonight (-11 F is the forecast low). Time to turn up the pellet stove…
Anthony, please refrain from “normal” regarding weather variables and say average. What ever the weather is for a given day is normal.
Is this peer reviewed?
Real science says Greenland is melting and that means global warming is going on faster everywhere else.
/sarc
Crap, that means our Northern visitors who invade us in Florida are not going to leave anytime soon. I can see it now. Global Warming “Cold” makes tourists extend vacations in the sunshine state………… Oh my!
“I am 58.. never seen anything close to this for late March.”
You were born 10 years too late. Go talk to a 70 year old construction worker or farmer.
It’s colder than a witch’s tit here in NE Oregon. Yet the farmers are doing their best to belch out CO2 from produce storages. See, when veggies like potatoes sit in storage warehouses, they build up CO2, which isn’t good for keeping those things fresh, so the automatic systems purge that CO2 by ventilating it out into the air. That’s a lot of CO2 given the number of storage warehouses around here. Yet, we are all nipply out here on the frontier! Wouldn’t it be ironic if potato storage systems belching CO2 out into the air around here demonstrate that CO2 does NOT measurably warm the climate, thus “nipping CO2 global warming in the bud” so to speak.
Dave Tolerisk of Weather Risk was talking about that this past weekend. And the coastal low that is supposed to form with it as well.
ANother snow storm! So far, 18 this season (that is a record), but the total snow is average (see Mid Atlantic Dry slot).
Gail Combs says:
March 17, 2014 at 4:44 pm
Great link !
This observation has not gone un-noticed in the past. Back in the late 70’s when the alarming claim was “the ice age is coming” , I recall a similar map & similar thought process being rolled out.
Funny how the alarmists aren’t rolling that one out this time around …
Pamela Gray says:
March 17, 2014 at 6:15 pm
————–
You may be on to something. I wonder how many rotting potatoes it takes to equal an F150 in CO2 output, insert time scale here.
How many potatoes does the globe use daily anyhow, let alone the polluting potatoes.
Willis?
Let them all feel what cold is like. Invite Al Gore to your place and see how he reacts.
Brrrrrrr!
[The last “Brrrr” was shorter. Mod]
To further emphasize point by Gail Combs (Gail’s Link ):
http://academic.emporia.edu/aberjame/student/martin1/lauren.jpg
Compare to this winter’s 500 Mb heights anomaly (long link will generate the correct plot; Copy & paste into browser if needed) :
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/GrADS.pl?dataset=NCEP+Reanalysis+Pressure+Level&DB_did=2&file=%2FDatasets%2Fncep.reanalysis%2Fpressure%2Fhgt.1948.nc+hgt.%25y4.nc+96720&variable=hgt&DB_vid=14&DB_tid=40770&units=m&longstat=Individual+Obs&DB_statistic=Individual+Obs&stat=&lat-begin=20.00N&lat-end=80.00N&lon-begin=0.00E&lon-end=350.00E&dim0=level&level+units=millibar&level=500.00&dim1=time&year_begin=2013&mon_begin=Dec&day_begin=1&hour_begin=00+Z&year_end=2014&mon_end=Feb&day_end=28&hour_end=00+Z&X=lon&Y=lat&output=plot&bckgrnd=white&use_color=on&zone=on&fill=fill&cint=&range1=&range2=&scale=175&submit=Create+Plot+or+Subset+of+Data
Pretty similar, FWIW.
What wouldn’t make as much sense though is the positive heights anomaly over Europe this winter, from an “ice age” type of argument – not surprisingly, it certainly more complicated that just this.
Okay. I have found the reason why we are so damn cold! If reducing greenhouse gases will keep Oregon cool, we need to tell this Oregon commission that if they are going to advertise that they have a handle on the thermostat, all they need to do is to tell these same industries they are monitoring to start pumping out CO2 instead of reducing it! That way they can keep Oregon’s temperature right where we like it best.
As for what we like best, majority rules, so we should pass a referendum to demand that this commission regulate these industries in such a way as to keep our thermostat at just the right temperature (if they can keep it cool, they can damn well keep it warm). In Winter I want it snowy and cold in the mountains and warm in the valleys. Spring, Summer and Fall should also be perfect.
http://www.keeporegoncool.org/content/tracking-emissions
Logic. She is such a bitch, but she is my bitch.
ossqss says:
March 17, 2014 at 5:56 pm
Crap, that means our Northern visitors who invade us in Florida are not going to leave anytime soon. I can see it now. Global Warming “Cold” makes tourists extend vacations in the sunshine state………… Oh my!
==========================================================================
As long as they keep spending their money who cares.
JeffL@ur momisugly
Its been a interest of mine to understand what was going on weather wise during the ice age.
And for me this winter has filled in some of the pieces of the puzzle.
Am as certain as you can be, that the winter America has had was just of a type that would of been happening during the ice. But the key difference between then and now l think is the fact that we now have a strong Azores high pressure pattern over the Atlantic. Which blocks the jet stream from going zonal across the Atlantic when it take’s a dive to the south over the USA.
This suggests to me that the Azores high was weaker and less stable over the north Atlantic during the ice age then it is now.
I live in Tucson Arizona for a reason. This is it. I plan on riding my bike, and/or running some trails every day for the next 3 months. When the temps get too high I’ll just swim in my 82F pool.
I suffered through 9 years in Boston getting PhD and Postdoc and 2 years in England 85-87 ( no summers). Never again. Polar vortex? Ha! Drought? I already live in a desert adapted climate.
And the GIGO climate models say a warmer earth is a wetter earth. Bring it on.
Loosely related to matters of cold and heat in the USA:
if, as is proposed by some, the US responds to the Russian annexation of Crimea by removing restrictions on the export of US gas, this will eventually raise US domestic energy prices (one LNG receiving facilities are developed in Europe).
That would permanently remove a significant strategic advantage that Russia currently wields in its dealings with Europe, and in particular remove some of the leverage that their supply of gas to Germany gives them. However, it would be at some potential cost to the US consumer either shivering through winter in the north or sweating through summer.
I wonder how people in the US feel about this trade off, and how politically sensitive it would be?
There may of course be a further advantage to the US from freeing up energy exports:
The theoretical US energy independence that some hope may come from the exploitation of shale oil and shale gas resources is actually illusory at the moment. That is because these resources are extremely costly to explore, develop and exploit (their EROEI – ‘Energy Return on Energy Invested’- is absolutely minimal in comparison to that of the traditional conventional oil and gas production that has driven US economic growth for most of the past 100 years). And importantly, the production decline curves of the very costly and specialised wells hat must be drilled to exploit these ‘tight’ shale reservoirs are far steeper than those of traditional wells drilled into traditional reservoirs, so you have to keep on drilling more and more costly ‘fracked, horizontal’ wells just to keep the production rate up. This new technology therefore has some way to go before the dream of energy independence actually becomes a reality, if it ever does.
What is urgently needed then, to encourage companies to improve the tight-reservoir exploitation technology and progress towards genuine US energy independence, is an increase in in the US domestic gas price.
So there would seem to be some fairly compelling reasons to lift the US export ban, though possibly at some cost to the economic recovery and some pain to domestic and industrial consumers.
The sight of another gigantic mass of freezing air heading south does rather focus the mind on the domestic political realities involved!
(Speaking as a West Australian, who has just sat out another endless 40C+ summer, of recurring $1,000 bills to put desalinated water on the lawn and air-condition the house using electric power generated from what gas we get after most of it has gone into LNG for export to Asia)
l mean “ice age”.
ossqss wrote in reply to Pamela Grey:
March 17, 2014 at 6:27 pm:
You may be on to something. I wonder how many rotting potatoes it takes to equal an F150 in CO2 output, insert time scale here.
How many potatoes does the globe use daily anyhow, let alone the polluting potatoes.
—————–
Aw come on, ossqss! First off, what type of potatoes? Russets? Golden? Reds? Yellows? Blues? Ya gots to be a bit more specific. And what type of Ford F150? Which engine? With or without AC? With or without towing package? Which rims and tires?
And as for how many potatoes a day, do you want a yearly average or daily? Ever try to get into a Waffle House on a Sunday? A truck load of hash browns on Sundays. Mondays are pick your favorite seat and they won’t do a bushel worth of hash browns all day.
The “polluting” from the storage of spuds ain’t anywhere near the methane putter gases from all them hash browns, either.
@Larry Kirk –
The prerequisite to exporting natural gas to Europe is to get rid of impediments to drilling on public lands and against fracking. If these are done there would be enough natgas to export without raising domestic prices significantly. New York has paid for its fracking ban with short supplies and high prices during this particularly cruel winter.
The sad part of all this is that to restore sanity to climate science, we need the alarmists to get their butts kicked by continued cold and continued failure of their models and their prognostications – but the price for that is suffering, especially by lower-income people. Damned if we do, damned if we don’t.
Of course this administration will do what it can to block energy development of all kinds, except the net energy loss varieties (“renewables”). I’m going to stop writing before I go off on too long of an obscene tirade against those people.
My Grandfathers diary for April 17th 1930, “a foot of snow and drifts today”, he was a farmer in southwestern Ontario Canada. It was the beginning of the dirty thirties and drought, although southwestern Ontario had very little drought compared to many other parts of this continent.
Brrrr, indeed Bob T!….
anyway, just so we’re clear that all this Cold has nothing, repeat nothing at all to do with us now going through what appears as the weakest, most pathetic (in terms of flare strength, earth-facing flare occurrence) Solar Maximum in the last….ummm…400 years…ummm…since the Maunder Minimum onset. Or phrased differently, a Grand Minimum Cometh….
Nothing to see here, move along, pay your carbon taxes.
Seriously, we (maybe just maybe) should be on a civilizational global push for building out equatorial food production, both land and sea-based. There’s nothing to say this ISN’T the Big One – rather than just a very deadly couple of decades of well below normal temps world-wide. Fortune favours the prepared, and were it not for the CAGW trashing of, y’know, data, that is to say evidence, … we might be in a position to scientifically convince the general population to park our weaponry for a little while and get down to a bit of society spanning survivalist activity.
Makes one (well, me) wonder about the IPCC being one of the ‘sub-plots’ in the UN Agenda 21 to destroy all confidence in science (aka: – evidence) via the Great Warming Fiasco.
This guy’s (Rolfe Witzsche) maybe been ahead of the curve for quite a while: – [say what you will it’s worth at least a quick read – automated thin-wall basalt fiber platforms holding fresh water for food production)]
http://www.ice-age-ahead-iaa.ca/world_development.html
oh…and lots and lots of greenhouses… 😎
From just north of Concord NH, and consider winter a waste if it doesn’t go below zero Fahrenheit at least once each winter. (-18° C.) This year is more than a bit ridiculous, it’s a record setting in my rather short record:
Past seasons and number of subzero days:
03/04: 14 (11! in a frigid January, 3 in mid February.)
04/05: 12
05/06: 2
06/07: 8 (year 2006 had no subzero low, 2007 had 4 in March)
07/08: 3 (2 in January, 1 in February, normalcy)
08/09: 9 (-17.5F on January 16th, brr.)
09/10: 1 (and that was -0.8F on January 30th)
10/11: 9
11/12: 3 (all in January)
12/13: 3 (all in January)
13/14: 15 (1 in December, 6 in January, 4 in February, 4 in March (so far!))
The forecast tonight is for -2° F, but I doubt we’ll make it. Would be nice, it would be the latest sub-zero temp I’ve recorded. Hey, if it’s going to be extreme, it might as well set a record.
Gail Combs says:
March 17, 2014 at 4:44 pm
The Laurentide Ice Sheet was the same ‘shape’ as the polar express….
http://academic.emporia.edu/aberjame/student/martin1/lauren.jpg
Gail,
Thanks for the link! I have recollections of similar information presented during the mid/late 70’s “ice age is coming” period. I lived in central Wisconsin then… and the winter of 78-79 was epic! This winter (so my relatives that still live there tell me) was a real close second….
Mac