Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
I got to thinking about the well-known correlation of El Ninos and global temperature. I knew that the Pacific temperatures lead the global temperatures, and the tropics lead the Pacific, but I’d never looked at the actual physical distribution of the correlation. So I went to the CERES dataset, and Figure 1 shows the result.
Figure 1. Correlation of detrended gridcell temperatures with the global temperature two months later. Blue square shows the extent of the 3D section shown in Figure 2. Gray lines show the zero value.
The joy of science to me is wondering what the final map will look like. This map made me laugh when it came up on the silver screen. I laughed because it’s a very good map of the path of the warm water pumped from the equator to the poles by the magnificent El Nino pump. I didn’t expect that at all.
To understand why a map showing each gridcell’s correlation with the planetary temperature two months later should also be a great map of the path of the water pumped by the El Nino pump, let’s consider the action of the pump in detail. Figure 2 shows a 3D section of the Pacific showing the ocean before and after the power stroke of the El Nino pump.
Figure 2. 3D section of the Pacific Ocean looking westward along the equator. The area covered is the blue box at the equator in Figure 1. Click on image for larger size. ORIGINAL CAPTION: This is a view of the current El Nino / La Nina evolving in the tropical Pacific Ocean. You are looking westward, across the equator in the Pacific Ocean, from a vantage point somewhere in the Andes Mountains in South America. The colored surfaces show TAO/TRITON ocean temperatures. The top surface is the sea-surface, from 8°N to 8°S and from 137°E to 95°W. The shape of the sea surface is determined by TAO/TRITON Dynamic Height data. The wide vertical surface is at 8°S and extends to 500 meters depth. The narrower vertical surface is at 95°W. SOURCE: click on “Animation”.
Now, every intermittent pump has a “power stroke” when it does the actual pumping. For example, the power stroke of your heart is marked by the “beat” of your heartbeat. (The heart has two pumping chambers, so there are two power strokes, with their timing signified by the “lub-dub” of your heartbeat.) The power stroke is the time when the work is done—it is the portion of the cycle where the water is moved by the pump. Figure 2 shows the situation before and after the power stroke of the El Nino pump.
On the left of Figure 2, we have the condition prior to the power stroke of the El Nino pump. In this condition, there is a build-up of warm water on the surface. As you might imagine, this also warms the atmosphere above it, and a few months later the warmth spreads to the planet as well.
However, when the amount of this warm water reaches a critical point, the El Nino phenomenon emerges. The wind that powers the El Nino pump arises, and it begins to blow. This wind blows the warm surface water strongly westwards. Essentially, the wind skims off the warm surface layer and pushes it all along the equator until it meets up with continental arc. This movement of untold cubic kilometres of water is the result of the power stroke of the El Nino pump.
On the right of Figure 2, we have the condition after the power stroke, when the wind has already blown the warm surface water westwards. Note that the cooler subsurface layers have been exposed. These layers are up to as much as 10°C cooler than the surface was before the power stroke. Naturally, the exposure of this huge area of cool water cools the atmosphere and thus the planet.
So with that as prologue, why does the correlation map of Figure 1 show the track taken by the warm water? It’s all a matter of timing.
Consider what happens when the El Nino pump skims off the warm surface of the equatorial Pacific waters. When the cool subsurface water is exposed all across that huge tropical area, first the Pacific atmosphere and then the whole planet starts to cool.
But actually, that’s not quite true. The whole planet doesn’t cool … because the warm surface water moved by the El Nino pump has to go somewhere. This means that the previously cooler areas to which the warm tropical water has been pumped are warming, while the rest of the planet is cooling … and as a result, we get the lovely blue and green areas of negative correlation shown in the western Pacific in Figure 1.
These areas demonstrate that when the warm Equatorial water hits the Asian continent and the shallow-water arc connecting Asia to Australia, the water pumped by the El Nino splits into two parts. One part of the warm water goes north, and one goes south.
And of course, like the other emergent climate phenomena, the El Nino pump functions to keep the Pacific from overheating. When there is a buildup of warm water, the El Nino pump emerges, pumps the warm water to the poles along the path shown in Figure 1, and then disappears until it is needed once again.
I can only stand in awe. This is a most ingenious method for temperature regulation. When the warm Pacific tropical surface waters get overheated, an emergent pumping system arises, which pumps the warm water polewards and exposes the cooler water underneath, and the cooler ocean waters in turn bring down the temperature of the whole planet … brilliant.
My regards to everyone,
w.
AS ALWAYS: If you disagree with something I’ve said, please quote the exact words you disagree with. That way all of us can understand exactly what you object to.
PS—It does strike me that with both a positively correlated and a negatively correlated area regarding the global temperature two months later, we should at least be able to forecast a few key climate parameters for a couple of months ahead …
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Arno Arrak: You are another one who did not bother to read my book in which the El Nino phenomenon is explained.
What book is that? The only one I see on amazon is titled “What Warming?: Satellite view of global temperature change.”
Another book that discusses ENSO is “Nonlinear Climate Dynamics” by Henk Dijkstra, Cambridge University Press, 2013.
Bob Tisdale says:
February 27, 2014 at 12:17 pm
No, it’s the overall correlation calculated over the entire 12 years of record. For each gridcell, I calculated the correlation between temperature variations in that gridcell, and the global temperature variations lagged by two months.
Those are simply two frames from the animation I linked to in the caption to Figure 2. They have no connection to Figure 1. They are indeed ten months apart, and somewhere in between them, the power stroke of the El Nino pump swept away the warm water.
I called this post “The Power Stroke” to emphasize that what most people think is important about El Nino/La Nina analyses (temperatures and frequency of occurrence) is secondary. The point is not whether the temperatures in the El Nino region are up or down, nor is it how many times they go up and down.
The point is the size of the power stroke—how much warm water was actually moved? It doesn’t matter whether that happens in three big pushes or ten small pushes. By that I mean people get caught up in counting the frequency of the events, when that misses the point. The critical measurement, which as far as I know has not been done but I’m always surprised when some commenter finds it, is the total amount of energy moved per occurrence/month/year/decade.
In any case, Bob, I’m thinking it should be possible to use the Argo data to get some good numbers regarding how much warm water is being moved. And I’m hoping I’m not the one that ends up doing the shovel work … what we need to look at in my opinion is the total energy content of the mixed layer in the region shown in Figure 2 above. Who was it that did the great Argo work here on WUWT? A commenter named Andrew? Maybe he’d be interested …
My best to you,
w.
What happened to the Humboldt Current that powered Kon Tiki to the islands of the Western Pacific? Why does the current not push the warmer water West away from the West Coast and South America? I guess ” sloush” wins out over current. My picture of the current shows it turning West at the North part of Peru and even pulling in waters from the coast of California.
Willis Eschenbach: I come at it from the other end. Me, I understand that heat engines do work, and to understand a natural heat engine, it’s necessary to take a hard look at what said heat engine actually accomplishes. So rather than look for causes, I look at the effects.
Sorry, but “accomplishes” is another teleological word; you need “effects” (as you use at the end of the quote), “consequences”, and “sequelae”.
Unless, like the Reverend Paley and his “Intelligent Design” intellectual descendents you really do want to maintain that the system has been intelligently designed. I think that goes beyond your intention.
One reason for the lack of understanding of El Nino, in my opinion, is this bias against teleology in favor of looking for causality.
You have a perfectly reasonable narration of a causal sequence.
Arno Arrak says:
February 27, 2014 at 12:56 pm
True.
But then … I never heard of your dang book. Which explains why I haven’t read it.
And your unpleasant and untrue claim about my motives and actions, that somehow I saw your book and “didn’t bother” to read it?
Well, you making that ugly claim guarantees that I’ll never read your book. Life’s too short to waste time on folks like you.
w.
Bob Tisdale says:
February 27, 2014 at 1:09 pm
Nice stuff, Bob. Very interesting, always more to learn.
w.
dp says:
February 27, 2014 at 1:41 pm
Think of it as taking an insulating blanket off of a big block of ice in the middle of a room. The temperature goes down, right? Same thing happens when you uncover the cooler subsurface layers of the ocean. They cool the atmosphere, and because of their thermal mass, barely change temperature.
Next, remember that there is much more energy striking the earth in the tropics than is radiated. The work of the giant heat engine we call the climate is (like any heat engine) to take the working fluids (water and air) from the hot end of the heat engine where the energy enters (the tropics), and move the fluids to the cool end of the heat engine, where there is little solar input and the working fluids are free to radiate their heat out to space. The El Nino (and other emergent phenomena) regulates that transport process, moving the heat polewards when needed.
w.
Walter Dnes says:
February 27, 2014 at 2:38 pm
Walter, my friend, I busted up laughing when I saw your comment, because I was actually thinking of you when I wrote the “PS” …
All the best,
w.
What I said was true, Willis. It is not smart to make a virtue of ignorance as your reply does. But be that as it may be, thanks to me you now know how ENSO operates.
Willis says: “…I can only stand in awe. This is a most ingenious method for temperature regulation. When the warm Pacific tropical surface waters get overheated, an emergent pumping system arises, which pumps the warm water polewards and exposes the cooler water underneath, and the cooler ocean waters in turn bring down the temperature of the whole planet … brilliant….”
Same here. But given this instrumental pump – this massive emergent phenomenon – there should be other effects that attend it. Such as: 1) your oft-described “thunderstorm regulator” (my abbreviation for your concept) ought to wax and wane in sequence with the pulse of hot or cool surficial waters across the Pacific equator; 2) depending on the thunderstorm activity, there ought to be more or less equatorial trade wind velocity and continuity; and 3) other things beyond my guessing range today. Is there data in CERES and the tropical float system (and elsewhere) to begin to see how a full “pump cycle” affects various other elements of earthly phenomena?
I think you and Bob have a grip on the climate version of “plate tectonics”. We may not fully understand the ultimate driving forces of the phenomenon, but it sure helps to understand why so many things occur, where they occur, and the timing thereof.
Regards, Jim Finley
When Bob Tisdale weighs in, there is a reason.
dp says:
February 27, 2014 at 2:58 pm
Manfred is quite right to observe the wrong way problem. The warm water in the east *is* el niño, and the power stroke, a well meaning but regrettable introduction of terms, starts at the beginning of la niña precisely when el niño ends. Naturally I expect full agreement will follow :)”
That is not quite true, or in the least very misleading
The warm body is not El Nino, El Nino is merely when the trade winds calm and that warm body that is normally being gathered in the West moves Eastward. (The weakening of the trade winds allows the Pacific Jet Stream to straighten, with the warm water and rainclouds following a path basically directly towards California – hence the likelihood of droughts there when the PDO is Negative/La Nina favorable; no El Nino, no rain)
La Nada (neutral conditions) is the period where trade winds are acting normally, ensuring said warm water stays on the West. La Nina is an escalation of the La Nada, and happens when trade winds intensify.
You can also easily see that La Nina does not even always follow El Nino, let alone start directly when El Nino is complete
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml
It is perceived one of the two follows the other because many times they do, but not always – (as you can see in the ONI) often we can instead see merely La Nada to even a repeat of the same. Which comes first seems completely dependent on how things are balanced at the start of whatever period, and is likely heavily dependent on which PDO cycle we are in.
But that is the thing; the entire process is just a big old balancing act. That is why I mentioned earlier that the 30/31 year PDO cycles look almost like Gas/Brake pedals (or maybe I should have said like the actual throttle and brake-pads themselves, as that is kind of more what is seemingly going on.)
Walter Dnes says:
But the energy that is doing all this radiating came from somewhere else nearby and that somewhere else is radiating at a lesser rate because of the la Niña power stroke. Care to do the math to include the total energy radiated for the entire affected area including the depleted area over a complete ENSO cycle? At this point it appears you have found the free lunch we’re all told doesn’t exist.
Matthew R Marler says:
February 27, 2014 at 4:43 pm
Yeah, yeah, you are indeed right.
The problem is that when you get into the realm of transient emergent phenomena, they emerge, they perform some work, and then they vanish.
Now, suppose I invented a force field. When applied to a house, whenever the floor got dirty, a little dust devil would spring up and vacuum that dirt up and out the door.
Would you say that force field has a purpose? I would say you could ask ten strangers what the purpose of the dust devils was, and once they saw them at work vacuuming up the dust and sending it outside, they’d say the purpose of the dust devils is to keep the floor clean.
Now, is this the “watch implies a watchmaker” argument? Not at all. I’m simply pointing out how humans think. We infer purpose from observing the phenomenon at work.
The problem is that the premier example of an emergent phenomenon is life itself.
And this means that the other emergent phenomena share some attributes with life itself—they are born, have a lifespan, move independently around the landscape, LOCALLY reverse entropy, weaken, and eventually die …
So you’ll excuse me when I look at such a critter as a dust devil, and I focus on what work it is doing, and how it functions. This is not teleology, it’s investigation.
However, you are correct about “accomplish”, as there is an implication of sentient self-aware intelligence in that term that doesn’t exist in say “consequences” or “effects”.
My thanks for the correction,
w.
ponysboy says: @ur momisugly February 27, 2014 at 10:58 am
SWAG:
I think it depends on the ratio of El Nino to La Nina and the strength of both. Also there is more to the climate system than ENSO. The Polar Vortex this winter just made that very clear.
You could say the ENSO is the governed heat intake for the planet and the poles (and vortex) are the exit. The position of the jets governs part of the ‘Cooling’
Of course there is a heck of a lot more to it than that.
Willis writes “However, this is not teleology because I’m not ascribing causality.”
I think you are Willis. There are other possible explanations to the phenomena you’re describing (and Bob too). You say the warm water is sloshed north and south to cool as an emergent property but as far as I can recall have never actually explored whether that fundamental assumption is true.
So for example it might possible the atmosphere is what is changing and say, changing average cloud cover gives the appearance of warm water moving by progressively allowing it to warm north and south as the average cloud cover changes with changing wind patterns?
I mean that would turn your theory on its head, wouldn’t it…
dp says:
February 27, 2014 at 5:25 pm
Walter Dnes says:
But the energy that is doing all this radiating came from somewhere else nearby and that somewhere else is radiating at a lesser rate because of the la Niña power stroke. Care to do the math to include the total energy radiated for the entire affected area including the depleted area over a complete ENSO cycle? At this point it appears you have found the free lunch we’re all told doesn’t exist.
———————-
Keep in mind what Bob Tisdale says: La Nina is NOT the opposite of El Nino.
After La Nina, there are no cold water pools drifting polewards, simply because upwelled cold water sinks just back where it came from.
Willis, thanks for the clarifications in your February 27, 2014 at 4:36 pm comment. And I agree wholeheartedly that the “leftover” warm water released by an El Nino has never been accounted for. That has been one of my arguments for years.
There will come a day when researchers finally get around to analyzing each El Nino event independently. What is the source of the warm water in the PWP? How much warm water was released from the PWP and travelled east during the El Nino? How much heat was released to the atmosphere during the El Nino? How much warm water (surface and subsurface) remained and was returned to the western tropical Pacific? Where did all of the warm water go from there? etc.
Now consider Trenberth’s follow-up email to his “travesty” email. He’s complaining that they don’t have the ability to track ENSO residuals. He knows the residuals are there. And he also knows that El Ninos are fueled by sunlight.
Regards
Bob
[PWP is the abbreviation of ??? West Pacific ? Mod]
[Good question. PWP is the Pacific Warm Pool. -w.]
dp says:
February 27, 2014 at 2:58 pm
Since that is what Figure 2 says (left panel is labeled “El Nino”, right is “La Nina”), not sure what your point is.
Obviously, something happens between the left and right panel … which is that all the warm water gets blown away to the west (far end of Figure 2) on the start of its polewards journey.
That’s the power stroke of the pump. It’s the part of the whole cycle where the action takes place. It’s the time during which the water is actually pumped polewards.
Now, you and Manfred are right that this is a simplified version of events. The lead-up to the pumping cycle is more complex than simple heating. In fact, there are bizarre things in the cycle like a very fast soliton wave (just one moving hump of water) that runs from west to east until it hits South America, and then reflects back as a different kind of wave … go figure. Emergent behavior.
But me, I’m looking from the other end. I’m not looking at the details of the chain of causality and events leading up to the power stroke.
Instead, I’m looking at the power stroke and what happens as a result of that ocean-wide pumping action.
In other words, you are looking at the measurements of the surrounding circumstances, and I’m looking at what work is actually being performed.
Finally, you characterize the term “power stroke” as a “regrettable introduction of terms”. To the contrary, it is the title of the post for a reason—to get people to focus on what the El Nino pump actually does, rather than focusing on the temperatures and details surrounding it.
Measuring, as you do, when an El Nino or a La Nina crosses some temperature threshold and thus “begins” or “ends” hasn’t led to understanding of the phenomena, because it misses the point. To understand the emergent phenomenon, you have to look at the actual work that the El Nino pump does.
You see, going above some arbitrary temperature level doesn’t mean anything if the surface water doesn’t get pumped to the poles. That’s the work that the El Nino is doing, pumping warm tropical water polewards. So being in “El Nino conditions”, whatever that means with whatever index you use, means nothing unless the pump kicks in.
And once the pump kicks in, what counts and what we need to measure is the size of the pumping stroke, both how much volume and how much heat is moved, and when it is moved.
My thanks to you and Manfred,
w.
Arno Arrak says (assumedly to Willis): “You are another one who did not bother to read my book in which the El Nino phenomenon is explained…”
There’s no reason for Willis to read your book. Your understandings of ENSO are incomplete and flawed, as are your explanations.
dp says: @ur momisugly February 27, 2014 at 1:41 pm
For this heat pump to actually have a cooling function for the global system it has to result in a great deal of energy leaving the Earth for the emptiness of space. How does that happen? The results are claimed (cooling occurs) but no mechanism for removing that energy from the system is identified. Just diluting it is not at all the same thing as removing it.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you look at Willis’s pictures you can see the warm water hits India/Australia and the islands and then some of the water heads to the poles where it dumps the heat.
There is this animation too: http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycom1-12/navo/globalsst_nowcast_anim30d.gif
However most of the transport is via the atmosphere and the Gulf Stream.
This has a good map and description of the ocean currents:
CHAPTER 31 OCEAN CURRENTS: TYPES AND CAUSES OF CURRENTS
Gene L says: “Great, the Hawaiin gods control the world!.”
Haven’t they always?
TimTheToolMan says:
February 27, 2014 at 5:52 pm
Willis writes “However, this is not teleology because I’m not ascribing causality.”
I think you are Willis. There are other possible explanations to the phenomena you’re describing (and Bob too). You say the warm water is sloshed north and south to cool as an emergent property but as far as I can recall have never actually explored whether that fundamental assumption is true.
———————————
After an El Nino, you will find tropical fish up to Alaska.
http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/enso4.html
http://plaza.ufl.edu/geohelen/lectures/Elnino.htm
Arno Arrak says:
February 27, 2014 at 4:59 pm
Arno, you walked into this discussion, and the first thing out of your mouth was an ugly accusation that I did not “bother to read” your damn book. As if everyone knew about your precious book including me, and I was dissing you by not being willing to spend the time reading it … !@ur momisugly#$% your book, I never heard of it!
You come into my thread mouthing off like that and you will definitely get your face slapped. No need to clutch your pearls and act surprised.
Next, was what you said about ENSO true? I have no idea, sorry. I quit reading after the insult, no plans to go back, don’t have time for dealing with folks trying that kind of unpleasant nonsense.
Next time you walk into a strange room, don’t start by insulting the host … I know free advice is worth every penny you paid for it, I’m just sayin’ …
w.
Manfred writes “After an El Nino, you will find tropical fish up to Alaska.”
I’m not doubting the warming effect of ENSO or its locations, its been well measured. Its the mass long range movement of that warm water that I’m sceptical of at this stage. There are indications its true but I’m not yet convinced and certainly not convinced its the only or even dominating factor.