Some reflections on ego as scientific desire
Guest essay by Eric Worrall
Anyone wondering why, in the face of contrary evidence, alarmists (such as Matthew English) have not admitted they were wrong (about ‘the pause’ or any other issue) might find the following quote from the Climategate archive interesting.
Phil Jones of the University of East Anglia Climate Research Unit (CRU) once admitted in a Climategate email that he wants the world to experience ‘climate change’, to vindicate his ego:
“As you know, I’m not political. If anything, I would like to see the climate change happen, so the science could be proved right, regardless of the consequences. This isn’t being political, it is being selfish.”
Source: Climatgate email http://www.ecowho.com/foia.php?file=1120593115.txt
Prioritising one’s ego above the posited pain and suffering on a global scale that climate change is supposed to bring – draw your own conclusions.
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I have often thought that regardless of your opinion of whether global warming (of the catastrophic kind) was occurring or not, you should at least have the common decency to hope that it was not, since this would be bad for humankind. This was evidently too much to expect of some scientists.
I guess this is as good a place as any to ask this question. I was over on “…and then there’s physics,” and there was an article making the point that even with the pause, global temps are still above the predicted values. The author used GISS, HADCrut4, UAH, RSS, and the new set that uses UAH to fill in the polar areas in his demonstration. Basically, he plotted the values out from 1979 through 2013, then drew a trend line using the data from 1979 to 1997. (He said he used this date because “the deniers” cherry-picked it to prove some point. I pointed out in my comment that there was nothing special about 1997, it’s just where the RSS trend started being flat. Well, mostly. I also pointed out the other dates of flatness from the other data sets to demonstrate.)
Anyway, he then showed how the 1979-1997 trend line, projected out, was still lower than anywhere from 14 to 16 out of 16 years of actual observations. I pondered that for a while, then had the thought that this was only so because of the great El Nino of 1998. From 1995 through 1997, the global anomaly had risen as much in those two years as it had in the previous 17. That put the plateau of the pause much higher than the previous trend would have put it, and it was a simple exercise with Excel to demonstrate that. If the El Nino hadn’t occurred (and it certainly wasn’t predicted by any models), the opposite would have occurred, and most of the observed values would have been well below the trend line.
This I put in my comment, which went into moderation hell and has not yet appeared, though many others have from later in the day than mine. But does my point make sense? It seems to me that only through the unpredicted sudden temperature rise of the El Nino does his article have any validity, though it seems as though he’s really saying “See, we were right all along even with the pause.” I’d appreciate any commentary on where I went wrong.
This has been discussed before at length. There are two plausible readings of the text
davidmhoffer says: @ur momisugly February 10, 2014 at 3:40 pm
This was one of the first climategate emails I ever read. I was in state of rage for days…
But the very next thing I did was to try and find out if Phil Jones and his ilk were buying up property in Siberia or Scandinavia, or northern Canada, or Alaska, to provide a safe haven for themselves…
My conclusion being that not only are these people so incredibly selfish that the wish death and destruction upon humanity for their own personal vanity, but they don’t actually believe their own bull sh*t.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
A quick check on the property owned by a few supporters of CAGW
May 3, 2010: Nobel Laureate Al Gore purchased a $9 million mansion in the luxurious hills of Montecito, California, recently
Ted Turner has amassed 2 million acres over the past two decades to become the largest private landowner in the country. He owns land in at least nine states, with most of his holdings in New Mexico, Nebraska, Montana and South Dakota,
Maurice Strong owns a 63 thousand acre ranch in Colorado called Baca Grande
Bill Gates owns the largest island in republic of Belize; The Grand Bugue Island. Also Water front home @ur momisugly Lake Washington near Seattle.
Warren Buffet: house in Laguna Beach’s fancy Emerald Bay community California, and a Omaha, Nebraska house.
NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg estate in Stokes Bay Bermuda.
Some how I don’t see any of these people being really worried about GoreBull Warming.
Jimbo says: @ur momisugly February 10, 2014 at 4:36 pm
…..What I want is for those concerned low carbon chaps to trade places with me. They will be low carbon and I can live.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
I just want them to come and stay for a month. I have more fence posts to set (If the weather ever clears) and sheep shearing is coming up soon. I have several sets of hand shears they can use. I have a buck and a ram that need to be slaughtered and the meat jerked. Also the tractor broke so they can help plow the garden. I have a horse drawn plow they can use IMAGE
I figure they really need to get out of the ivory tower and get a taste of real honest to god “low carbon living”
{:>)
The fact that Jones wrote the he would “like to see climate change happen” is a tacit admission that he was NOT seeing any evidence of it even way back then. If he HAD evidence he would have said “I would like to see even MORE climate change…”
Oh, those little Freudian slips will give you away every time
wws says: @ur momisugly February 10, 2014 at 4:42 pm
….
I would never want to live farther north than Texas – and even here, it’s been a damned cold winter! Probably another ice storm in the morning.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Tell me about it we get snow once every five years and we are forecast for more snow from Tuesday night through Thursday. It is going to be nasty. Freezing rain, ice pellets and snow for three days YUCK. The last snow just finished melting here in mid NC.
pat Feb 10 3:22pm says “The research by Josef Ludescher and Armin Bunde from Germany’s Justus-Liebig University used a 12-month model that successfully predicted the absence of El Nino in the past two years. “. If you forecast no El Nino every year, you will have about a 75% success rate.
Eric Worrall – Thanks for your essay. I do agree with your “IMO alarmists are doing a huge disservice to the world, their sloppy science is causing a massive waste of resources, resources which might be sorely missed if the sun enters a deep quiet period.“, but I wonder whether you are being over-kind with “sloppy”.
@John Piepers
“I hope someone will tell me these authors aren’t … accounting for their “missing heat” by stashing it where no one can disprove it.”
Of course not!
Perish the thought!
How could you even say that?
I’m shocked, shocked, I tell you, that you could suggest such a thing!
Hang your head in shame for your impure thoughts!
Now I shall have to lie down with a damp cloth over my eyes to recover from this foul imputation of turpitude on the part of the honest climate scientists we so much admire.
Mike Jonas
Eric Worrall – Thanks for your essay. I do agree with your “IMO alarmists are doing a huge disservice to the world…“, but I wonder whether you are being over-kind with “sloppy”.
Its really difficult to tell :-). I tend towards Anthony Watts’ “noble cause corruption” theory – they are so sure they are right, and they bend the rules of science, because their cause is so important they must not allow skeptics to distract politicians and voters from their vital mission to save the world.
The possibility that the objections of skeptics might represent fatal flaws in their theory rarely seems to occur to them, and when it does, is quickly dismissed.
Even “hiding the decline” can be understood in this context – preventing skeptics from having a lever to sow doubt about “the science”, for the sake of the world, rather than a conscious attempt to commit outright fraud.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/category/noble-cause-corruption-2/
Well, the missing heat for the last 15 years is approaching star Gliese 876…approximately 15 light years from earth… a solar system where a planet will be warmed by our arrogant and criminal industrialization. A planet doomed by our SUV’s and excessive use of petroleum. Fair warning!!!
And in Australia stronger Pacific trade winds linked to stable air temperatures.
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/stronger-pacific-trade-winds-linked-to-stable-air-temperatures-20140209-32a96.html
“proved right”? it wasn’t settled back then?
Phil Jones of the University of East Anglia Climate Research Unit (CRU) once admitted in a Climategate email that he wants the world to experience ‘climate change’, to vindicate his ego:
“As you know, I’m not political. If anything, I would like to see the climate change happen, so the science could be proved right, regardless of the consequences. This isn’t being political, it is being selfish.”
==============
Phil Jones wanted “to see the climate change happen so the ‘science’ could be proved right”? Think about that for a moment. What kind of “science” is he talking about?
CarolinaCowboy says:
“A paper in the journal Geophysical Research Letters in May found that ocean waters below 700 meters (2,300 feet) have absorbed more heat since 1999.”
Others have noted that this has been addressed in previous posts here on WUWT, and I encourage you to check them out. But regardless of whether you do or not, ask yourself some basic questions:
1. Do warm fluids sink or rise? (Hint: check out a Lava Lamp).
2. If warm water could somehow be forced down to these depths, how does it get there without being detected on the way down?
3. How long have we been taking temperature measurements below 2300 feet?
4. How reliable are temperature measurements taken below 2300 feet?
5. How many temperature measurements do we have from below 2300 feet?
6. Is there enough data from these depths to determine what the temperature is really doing?
Close your eyes, RoHa!
It is my sincere hope that Phil Jones and all of the AGW faithful keep experiencing colder and longer winters until they become complete pariahs, rejected by all of their families, friends, science associates, and acquaintances because they have been recognized as greedy, grant grasping, self-serving climate crooks. It’s time for their polar fleece to end!
Mac
Mike Jonas
Eric Worrall – Thanks for your essay. I do agree with your “IMO alarmists are doing a huge disservice to the world…“, but I wonder whether you are being over-kind with “sloppy”.
Hard to tell :-). I tend towards Anthony Watts’ “noble cause corruption” theory – they are so sure they are right, in their minds they have moved beyond simply proving their position to urging the world to take action, and don’t want any skeptics distracting the world from their vital mission.
Even when they can’t help admitting at least to themselves that the evidence contradicts their theory, would it be right to undermine the most important mission ever, by allowing people to see their doubt?
CarolinaCowboy,
Louis Hooffstetter asked you a series of questions:
1. Do warm fluids sink or rise? (Hint: check out a Lava Lamp).
2. If warm water could somehow be forced down to these depths, how does it get there without being detected on the way down?
3. How long have we been taking temperature measurements below 2300 feet?
4. How reliable are temperature measurements taken below 2300 feet?
5. How many temperature measurements do we have from below 2300 feet?
6. Is there enough data from these depths to determine what the temperature is really doing?
I would be interested in your answer/explanation.
CarolinaCowboy
A paper in the journal Geophysical Research Letters in May found that ocean waters below 700 meters (2,300 feet) have absorbed more heat since 1999:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-09/global-warming-slowdown-due-to-pacific-winds-study-shows.html
Deep ocean heating is the suicide note of climate alarmism. Because the deep oceans have the thermal capacity to absorb thousands of years of excess heat – so if alarmists are right, if heat can be readily transferred to the ocean depths, nothing we do to the atmosphere will matter for thousands of years.
Kind of difficult to get excited about a problem which can’t happen until our current civilisations are dust, isn’t it?
James Schrumpf says:
February 10, 2014 at 5:08 pm
I’d appreciate any commentary on where I went wrong.
I do not believe you were wrong. See the three trend lines shown below. Note the huge difference it makes where you end for the blue and green and when these are extended.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:1979/plot/rss/from:1979/to:1997/trend/plot/rss/from:1979/to:1999/trend/plot/rss/from:1996.65/trend
Gail Combs says:
February 10, 2014 at 5:20 pm
Bill Gates owns . . . Water front home @ur momisugly Lake Washington near Seattle.”
Lake Washington is a fresh water lake about 16 feet above (Puget Sound) sea level. Bill’s house is in Medina.
The Montecito house seems to have gone to wife Tipper as their split was announced just after the purchase. I think Oprah has a house nearby. Could have been changes in the last 2 years.
You could use Carbon-Cate Blanchett in your list.
http://news.domain.com.au/domain/real-estate-news/cate-blanchett-buys-unit-on-harbour-as-investment-for-sons-20140122-3191j.html
CarolinaCowboy says:
February 10, 2014 at 2:47 pm
I see the usual suspects have piled on, and not just because you used Bloomberg as an authority. But don’t let them confuse you.
The ocean is not your fresh water fish tank and all sorts of things are going on in 3 dimensions in a difficult place to monitor and on a vast scale. Some comments imply (and some state) that warm water cannot carry heat under the ocean surface. That’s nonsense. See here:
http://marinebio.org/Oceans/temperature.asp
For a fairly large scale example see the images (2) of the flow from the Mediterranean Sea into the Atlantic Ocean on Chiefio’s site (posted Feb. 4; Which Way What Water Wanders?).
Who is Matthew English?
One of the most shocking aspects of this global warming business is its eschatological foundation.
They are genuinely upset that the world isnt heating catastrophically.
You’d think that a pause would be good news, but instead, its a disaster?
Go figure
Dr. Phil Jones – BBC – 13th February 2010
“I’m a scientist trying to measure temperature. If I registered that the climate has been cooling I’d say so. But it hasn’t until recently – and then barely at all. The trend is a warming trend.”
__________________
Dr. Phil Jones – BBC – 13th February 2010
[Q] B – “Do you agree that from 1995 to the present there has been no statistically-significant global warming”
[A] “Yes, but only just”.
Very scientific!!
Pat was interested to read about the Scottish Highlands, our wonderful BBC has never stopped talking about the floods in the South, but they have never once mentioned this part of the UK. Likewise when the North East of England was hit by heavy snow and very cold temperatures in the last FOUR winters, it was barely mentioned.