Remember White House science advisor John Holdren’s wackadoodle video about the Polar Vortex? The opening line of the video spoken by Dr. Holdren says
” If you’ve been hearing that extreme cold spells, like the one we’re having in the United States now disproves global warming…don’t believe it.”
He then goes on to present evidence, like this plot of mid-tropospheric temperature, which looks like it is from UAH/Dr. Roy Spencer, though no citation is given in the video.
The funny part? Watch these two guys blow the glossy WH take on this visual out of the water with just a ruler and some common sense.
For more information on the UAH temperature record, see our most recent update here: Global Temperature Report: January 2014 Upper Michigan was ‘coldest’ spot on the globe in January
Then there’s the other satellite record, from RSS: Satellites show no global warming for 17 years 5 months
For more on the polar vortex, see the new WUWT Polar Vortex Page.
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
the last words say it all “this is so unbelievably dishonest”. Makes you want to puke, never pay taxes again, impeach Obama, etc.
This is what the actual global mid troposphere data looks like, UAH v5.6:
http://devoidofnulls.files.wordpress.com/2014/02/uahmtg.png
It doesn’t look like the data cited by the White House at all. Hm, that’s funny, what then could they be referencing as “the” satellite data?
The answer, I would guess, is that they are citing NOAA’s STAR dataset. I believe that John Christy has written several publications documenting issues with various temperature datasets for upper air temperature trends, and STAR is one which has definite problems. But even putting that aside, a quick browsing of RSS’s radiosonde validation browsing tool indicates that STAR happens to be the dataset that shows the most warming. How convenient that the White House “happened” to pick the dataset that most agrees with the story they want to tell.
ferdberple says:
February 7, 2014 at 6:56 am
“Climate Reparations is the name of the game. The 3rd world holds the majority of votes at the UN. They want to be paid for the damage the industrialized world has caused through CO2 emissions.”
Excellent point.
The base point is to chose any two points and draw a line. The typical thinker is not going to recognize the deliberate error and intentional lying with statistics. Especially when the blame game and dollars are affecting the noise.
“A lie repeated often enough becomes the truth”
They still couldn’t hide the declining trend after 2005.
Tom In Indy says: @ur momisugly February 7, 2014 at 8:42 am
Why? As Willis says, can you provide some direct quotes from Glenn Beck on which you base your opinion?….
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Because when you are trying to get a message across you are talking about perception and not the man. People base their opinions on what others say often times and give high weight to someone they respect. (That is why there is so much whinging that @ur momisuglynthony featured this)
The Propagandists in the Progressive MSM have done a good trashing of Beck so many middle left leaning types will not even get past the first couple of words.
The comments in this article are a good example of what I mean.
A recent discussion here at WUWT that brought up the John B1rtchers is another example or Richard the Third or if you really want to see the flame throwing bring up that Shakespeare is probably Edward de Vere the Seventeeth Earl of Oxford in a University English department.
So yes I wish a more ‘neutral’ person had debunked that graph because it would reach a wider audience.
@Gail Combs –
Then you are allowing them to decide who speaks and who does not. They purposefully trash those who they cannot defeat in an honest and open debate. So that others will avoid them, thus removing support for any opposing points.
By agreeing to their rules, you are letting them manipulate the playing field. And on which they will always win. Instead of backing off when a person makes a good point, challenge the naysayers to prove their bigotry. In virtually all cases, they cannot. They parrot the progressive line well. But they have no concrete examples of what they have been told to believe.
It reminds me of the book How To Lie With Charts & Graphs.
The purveyors of common sense, like Bech and Palin, come under the fiercest attack. No surprise there.
Voltaire said it best, “Common sense is not very common”.
He also said, “Prejudices are what fools use for reason”.
I’m looking at the 2007 2008 drop. It goes in one hit. This looks more like mid-tropo that TLT.
Not sure who’s data though. NH or global ??
Great graph with no scale on temp axis too.
While a good guffaw is always appreciated at the expense of the Church of Climate Science, an executive order yesterday created 10 “climate hub” and “climate sub-hub” trojan horses into the heartland whose purposes are clouded in banal sounding jargon. I’m somewhat surprised (and, I confess, disappointed) to note the lack of note here.
The tilt would have been created by the graphics department during production rather than being a deliberate attempt at dishonesty by John Holdren, I personally wouldn’t make a serious point out of that issue (it is funny), the other good points raised are valid though!
Tom Warn says: (February 7, 2014 at 8:25 am)
“Apparently these two ‘funny guys’ aren’t familiar the elementary methods used to estimate trends from a set o f data as taught in high school. Why does this not surprise me?”
Apparently you’re not familiar with the fact that it’s mathematically meaningless to try and estimate a linear trendline from a cyclical dataset. Why does this not surprise me?
Maybe a little off topic but…
From the Science is Settled Department “A study published years ago in the Journal of the American Medical Association found the average normal temperature for adults to be 98.2°, not 98.6°, and replaced the 100.4° fever mark with fever thresholds based on the time of day.”
Harvard Health: Normal Body Temperature : Rethinking the normal human body temperature
Sparks says:
February 7, 2014 at 9:27 am
“The tilt would have been created by the graphics department during production rather than being a deliberate attempt at dishonesty by John Holdren, I personally wouldn’t make a serious point out of that issue (it is funny), …”
The production department was instructed on exactly what was to be produced. No stone unturned is the rule. Leave nothing to chance. To imply Holdern is honest is not going to work.
@Anthony Watts & al
This is not funny at all, and has not been so for a while.
What I see on that video is the very common and ugly situation of 2 alian invaders and architect entrepreneur trolls talking rather loud and smashing around with “Blankvals” = shiny linear industrial iron rods, and with “Skurlast” = artificially sawed and regulated wooden half fabricata for dilettants, shouting screaming and planning…. in wild nature.
Where we take a twig of course, or a moose, or a reindeer horn, That is quite more congruent to the situation.
What we see on that video is not how to discuss a curve or how to discuss empirically mapped material from nature at all.
Your basic behaviours and methods of thought and procedure ought to be somehow PHAENOMENICALLY CONGRUENT to where you are, to what you dig into, and to what you try and find out of, and tell people that you are doing and discussing.
I have been in that quite general situation several times. To smash proudly and loudly around with straight linear physical rulers in a rugged and maybe delicate or sensitive or natural material, simply is not the way.
Having got to deal with online servography for instance,….that is what theese things are most alike,……. where are the elementary basically inaugurated and enlighted and trained behaviours and manners that shows that theese 2 quite typical alian bastard barbars ever were near to that kind of practical raisings, work and experience?
Where can we see any civilized impact of basic and elementary learnings of analytic geometry?
===========000
¨
On such a rugged and filzy signal I would quite spontaneously suggest a damping condenser.
And what is that?
That is a resistor over a condenser, that has got its earth or ground lead in order, two passive and bias- free components that brings you closer to having the mass or the heat sum or the integral over time of it, quite more noise- free.
Then the opposite way, a condenser over a resistor , you will have the derivative.
Both methods are alian conscepts to the barbarians, but you will now have what is under any mixing board for rock music and on any large stereo device, a low pass and a high pass filter, namely the Bass and the Discant- control.
Together you will have a bandpass filter or a frequency – window, that you can tune to anything you whish, to the 4 year election period, to Stalins 5 year plans in the area, to Salomos number 70 and thus to eventual storms of your grandchildren and so on.
And then with adjustable positive feedback also, you can get any swinging cycles that you want at any desired or preferred frequency. Rather the R.Lindsen, and the N.Scafetta-way.
But turning that positive feedback lower, you will be able to detect even very weak swinging or cycling tendencies in your material.
I have made that device many times and in many different way for signal analysis.
Who sells or who slams around with cycles being not aware of or being even alian to such methods rather fighting any material with shiny rolled and graded steel or aluminium prophiles, should go right down the toilet. It is not just IMMATVRVS. It is much worse, it is ADVLTERARE!
Placing a ruler from 1950 to 1977, a next one from 77 to 98, and a third one from 98 to 2013 is violating how many elementary laws of Nature?
It is 2 times violence to NATURA NON FACIT SALTVM also, namely in the meeting and knick points of the rulers. Why not just draw a curve free handed and take and use the sponge immediately after. Because allready that is violence to §2 of the 10 commandments, the quite strict and general prohibition of virtual realitty and of model- making. and warnings against its quite severe consequenses.
Allways keep that in mind and use the sponge..
I suggested the damping condenser and integrator.
But I can further recommend a proper soft metal wire that is bent into fom by fingers to be laid into the grasses, and finely adjusted to be as invisible as possible. That comes quite close to the rule of square sum minimum curve- adaption.
If Natural behaviour and possible natural physical causes are to be discussed, then theese very compulsary and elementary basic methods of scientific thought and strategy must be brought in order first, and obvious war against the same “moderated” and degraded.
Those very fameous IPCC climate scientists do indeed have methods similar to what I have described and suggested here, and they call the cobined results of it for “models”.
I do not buy and use other peoples “models”. I make my own.
In fact, allready if you buy or borrow the ruler, you will block yourself physically mentally and emosionally against seeing and grasping straightforwardness!
I repeat….!
Thus, inn order to be “sceptic” and in order to beat them or to fight them or to have any benefit or any possible practical information and use out of it, better be aware of what it is about.
Get PHAENOMENOLOGICALLY CONGRUENT to it on thought and on method and procedure- level.
I went back to the Holdren video and watched it to the part showing the graph and paused it for a closer look, thinking that perhaps the tilt of the zero line was an artifact of how it was projected on the Blaze screen, but sure enough, it’s really tilted in the video. Such dishonesty truly sickens me.
Just an FYI. The two guys have names. Pat Gray and Steve “Stu” Burguier. They have their own daily radio show, and co-host with Glenn Beck daily for three hours on the radio. Stu also has a weekly television show on the Blaze Network. The segment shows that even two non- scientist “funny guys” are smart enough to catch and easily explain the manipulations done by the White House “expert”. And they are 100% correct.
They seem to have done a pretty good number of the mid-troposphere.
I like this view of the “hot spot”
https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/GkhPNFh3UDNUIAOkoa3CuRl0-97eX_7ZosWUANzIy74=w979-h477-no
I guess Tamino can make removing the volcanic signal more interesting, but no trend since 1994 looks like no trend since 1994 for the less creative folks.
More graphical Tricks to Hide the Decline.
Lighten up folks! Look this not serious, it’s a joke, no-one with an ounce of common sense would believe what they are saying about the graphs, it’s just good humour and no more valid that saying Glenn Beck is even handed. Just in case you still believe it may have a some truth check out the promotions to join the conversation the ‘impartial’ Glenn Beck. Chill out out, have a laugh then go back to the serious stuff. By the way, just in case anyone really thought this was a genuine attempt at scientific interpretation of data, I’m sad to inform you that Little Britain is also just a parody, it’s not real.
Gail Combs says:
February 7, 2014 at 7:55 am
“Yes, I took both drafting and art in high school and college. Perspective is used to FOOL THE EYE, and that is exactly what was done.”
=========
Gail cuts to the chase.
Good job.
Pamela Gray says:
February 7, 2014 at 6:40 am
Power Point. This guy is on to something. He has deconstructed long-range data and found that short term variations, including the recent supposed anthropogenic warming trend, are possibly buried in long-range trends. Has he found the slow continued rebound from the last ice age? At the very least, using long-term data, our recent little warming bump may indeed be nothing more than natural variation, and insignificant at that, at least in the Antarctic.
http://imsc.pacificclimate.org/proceedings/11IMSCppt/Franzke_session10.pdf
If we could remove all influences such as CO2 from long-range data we will still have an apparent stochastic system. It’s easier to find signals of natural variation in the data such as night and day, seasonal effects that are caused by Earths axial tilt, sidereal and Synodic period’s of its orbital parameters, Lunar effects, Solar signals caused by changes in solar activity and planetary orbits that change both on a short timescale and on a longer time scale which effect our planetary geology.
If anthropogenic carbon dioxide is having a role of any significance on a planetary scale, we still wouldn’t be able to tell it apart from natural sources of carbon dioxide using temperature as a proxy, even if we treat human use of fossil fuels as a volcano, it would be a very tiny volcano compared to the hundreds of thousands of active volcanoes and natural sources of out gassing continuously putting vital gases and minerals into the atmosphere.
so here’s my problem – this shows yet again how you can make stats say whatever you want. But then how can i believe anybody? I don’t think there is any AGW but if, being a novice, I can’t rely on any charts and graphs from either side I might as well just hop a Megabus to Denver and blaze up!
And frankly the plethora of measurements makes my head spin. I would think it would be rather simple to determine the temperature but obviously not. Only the ‘experts’ can understand it – but they are the very people I trust the least since they all have a vested interest in some way.
Bingo says: @ur momisugly February 7, 2014 at 9:18 am
That is what Tips and Notes is for.
Give A.W. the link. http://wattsupwiththat.com/tips-notes-2/
Or you can submit a story: http://wattsupwiththat.com/submit-a-story/
Gail Combes-
“More reach”?
The Glenn Beck radio show (of which the Pat and Stu show is a part) averages 10 million listeners a week, The Blaze website gets 16 Million unique visitors a month, the online streaming network has more than half a million online subscribers, and The Blaze network is being picked up by more and more satelite cable providers every day, including DISH. THAT is quite a reach in some people’s estimates.