Tips & Notes

Tips & Notes to WUWT

Cleaned 10/18/14

1. Be sure to check the front page of WUWT first, we often get duplicate tips here of stories already posted, sometimes days later.

2. Please remember this is not a discussion thread. Tips, notes, and links only please.

3. To put links in comments. simply copy the entire link URL and paste it into the comment. No need for code.

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217 thoughts on “Tips & Notes

  1. 17 Oct: The Conversation: Climate ‘uncertainty’ is no excuse for climate inaction
    by Richard Pancost & Stephan Lewandowsky
    Former environment minister Owen Paterson has called for the UK to scrap its climate change targets…
    Uncertainty is not the same as ignorance
    This argument is incorrect – uncertainty does not imply ignorance. Indeed, whatever we don’t know mandates caution. No parent would argue
    “I accept that if my child kicks lions, this will irritate them, but a range of factors will dictate how the lions respond; therefore I will not stop my child from kicking lions.”
    The deeper the uncertainty, the more greenhouse gas emissions should be perceived as a wild and poorly understood gamble. By extension, the only unequivocal tool for minimising climate change uncertainty is to decrease our greenhouse gas emissions.

    • This reminded me of one of my favorite jokes.

      What is the difference between ignorance and apothy? Answer- I don’t know and I don’t care.

  2. a bit of a laugh!

    PIC: 18 Oct: SaintPetersBlog: Phil Amman: Email Insights: NextGen Climate dresses up for Halloween
    You know Halloween is near, when the newest email from NextGen Climate shows fans dressed in silly costumes to blast Rick Scott.
    Florida’s governor needs to stop his “Stone Age agenda” on climate change, the email says. It comes complete with a photo of supporters dressed as both science teachers (white coats and all) and cave dwellers carrying clubs and dressed in faux animal skins.
    NextGen Climate Florida is the environmental PAC founded by investor and philanthropist Tom Steyer, which is targeting Scott as one of the state office-bearers denying humanity’s role in climate change…READ ON

  3. 18 Oct: UK Telegraph: Christopher Booker: Ed Miliband and Baroness Worthington, the most expensive man and woman in Britain’s history
    The Climate Change Act could cost the UK £1.3 trillion over the next 36 years
    Less well known, however, is the extraordinary story of how this most expensive Act ever put on the statute book originated in the first place…
    The Bill passed the Commons by 463 votes to three, after a debate in which not a single MP asked how such an ambitious target could in practice be achieved without destroying virtually our entire economy…
    But this is what at last one senior politician, Owen Paterson, dared to question in his lecture last week to the Global Warming Policy Foundation…
    There was, of course, a knee-jerk howl of derision from the likes of Lord Stern and Lord Deben, along with a blizzard of personal abuse across the Twittersphere. But the more thoughtful among them, such as the BBC’s Roger Harrabin, tried instead to ride with the punch, by claiming that Decc was already looking at all the parts of Paterson’s “Plan B” for keeping our lights on….READ ON

    as nuclear is part of Paterson’s plan, best to mention:

    18 Oct: UK Daily Mail: Hugo Duncan: Fears of winter blackouts as repairs to mend boiler cracks shut EDF nuclear plants for two years
    Work to prevent high temperatures causing further cracks at ageing plants
    Move will lead to increase in the risk of power shortages this winter and next
    The nuclear power reactors have been in operation since the early 1980s
    Two of Britain’s nuclear power plants closed in August over safety issues will not be fully up and running for another two years – triggering fears of blackouts this winter…

  4. Yet another look-a-squirrel paper. In Science online last week a paper title “Increased variability of tornado occurrence in the United States,” by Harold E. Brooks, Gregory W. Carbin, Patrick T. Marsh. It is found at The abstract is “Whether or not climate change has had an impact on the occurrence of tornadoes in the United States has become a question of high public and scientific interest, but changes in how tornadoes are reported have made it difficult to answer it convincingly. We show that, excluding the weakest tornadoes, the mean annual number of tornadoes has remained relatively constant, but their variability of occurrence has increased since the 1970s. This is due to a decrease in the number of days per year with tornadoes combined with an increase in days with many tornadoes, leading to greater variability on annual and monthly time scales and changes in the timing of the start of the tornado season.” I looked at the paper and the SI and I suspect the key is in their words “changes in how tornadoes are reported.” I have looked at the tornado data in the past and I would be very surprised if the reported “increased variability” is anything more than misguided statistics failing to reflect changes in the underlying sample/reporting procedure. Sadly, I am tiring of reviewing the seemingly endless stream of look-a-squirrel papers coming out now that hard empirical data increasingly does not support the AGW hypothesis. Perhaps someone who still has intellectual energy to spare for these climate squirrels would want to look at the underpinnings of this paper. It is already being seized upon in the warmista press.

  5. Research ecologist Nathan Stephenson crawled around magnificent Giant Forest, checking young giant sequoias for damage from California’s three-year drought.

    Instead of stressed-out plants, he found young trees that looked pretty happy, he said. But at some point, he glanced upward and saw something startling.

    “The foliage had died back on a much larger sequoia above me,” said Stephenson, a sequoia authority who works for the U.S. Geological Survey. “It’s not happening to all of them, but there is a subset of bigger trees showing stress. It makes sense, but it surprised me a little.”

    The brown needles on a 3,000-year-old tree are a smart response to drought, Stephenson said. The trees dump their old foliage when they get drought-stressed and focus on new growth.

    But the bigger takeaway: Nature may hold a few surprises as the climate warms this century for giant sequoias and other plants and animals. California’s intense drought is giving scientists a valuable sneak peek.

    Read more here:


    Why is China going to reduce carbon fuel burning because of a threat of a 2 degree temperature rise in 80 years when they already have this situation in their country? They know the urgency of reducing carbon fuel burning, lives are being shortened now because of it. But when you try to focus the issue on global warming then when the data comes in showing the warming isn’t as bad as predicted you get a reaction of “Well I guess its not as bad as they said, there is no need to shift off of carbon fuels, so lets keep burning away!” Obviously the economy of any country can’t handle a drastic, forced conversion off of carbon fuels, and that must be a consideration when setting a course for switching to cleaner energy, but I think the focus on AGW reduces the urgency to reduce carbon fuel consumption when the focus should be on pollution.

  7. There has been a major fire tonight at Didcot B power station in the UK – this plant provides around 3% of the country’s electricity.

    In addition, an abnormal amount of the UK’s nuclear power stations are currently down for maintenance or repair.

    A cold winter will bring widespread black outs in the UK and with it the long overdue realisation by the lumpen proletariat that an energy policy reliant on intermittent, unreliable, expensive wind power is totally insane.

    This is a breaking news story, so no quotes.

  8. It seems to me that many people involved with climate alarmism are using climate change as a tool to bring about a fundamental change to the world. One of these changes that I believe some want is some form of Marxism. I have been unable to figure out how anyone could come to the conclusion that Marxism/communism would work very well. During my search of the internet to see how it was supposed to work in the USSR, I found it surprising that Karl Marx thought that a free press was essential for his ideas of utopia to work.

    I think that many in the main stream media (MSM) are determined to bring about that utopia by controlling the press by limiting or trying to prevent information that counters the CAGW agenda.

    The following is copied from the following URL:

    “Marx would not accept any form of censorship in any circumstances, for it is ‘a precautionary measure taken by the police against freedom… and a bad police measure at that’.

    Where there is no freedom of the press, he wrote – and to this also Soviet reality bears witness:

    … the government hears only its own voice; it knows that it hears only its own voice and thus establishes itself in the illusion of hearing the voice of the nation, and demands from the people that they share the same illusion.

    And where can a better description – which is also an indictment of the Soviet press – be found than in this passage by Marx:

    Boasting every day of everything created through the will of the government… [this] press is constantly lying, since one day necessarily contradicts the other. And it reaches the point of not even being aware of its lies and losing all shame.”

    Could this be what has happened to Mann, Hanson and all of his sort?

    Jim Francisco

  9. VIDEO: 20 Oct: NoTricksZone: Amazing…AP Reporter Seth Borenstein Emphasizing Value Of “New Catch Phrases” To Hype Up Climate Stories!
    By P Gosselin
    For the media, at least for the AP’s Seth Borenstein, it’s not about presenting the science in a professional and balanced manner, rather it’s all about sensationalizing it and getting the editor to print it. The good stuff starts at about the 7:30 mark…

  10. unfortunately, this article is being picked up online, not only by CAGW websites, but by some alt websites that are sceptical of CAGW. when it’s promising a renewable future that “would cost the average household only about 18 cents per month”, i guess it’s tempting to believe:

    19 Oct: CleanTechnica: Roy L. Hales: America Can Nearly Quadruple Its Renewable Electricity By 2030
    A recent Union of Concerned Scientists (USC) study found that America can nearly quadruple its renewable electricity in the next 15 years, reaching 23% by 2030. This comes in response to the Environmental Protection Agency’s proposal that America set a modest goal of 12% renewable energy by 2030. Rachel Cleetus, Senior Climate Economist of UCS, referred to the EPA’s goal as just a fraction above “business as usual.” The UCS found raising this target, to +23% of the nation’s electricity from non-hydro renewable sources by 2030, would cost the average household only about 18 cents per month. Cleetus described this as a realistic and affordable goal: “Looking at the way renewable energy is ramping up and costs are falling dramatically, there is a real opportunity to go farther.”…

  11. Quadrant magazine has an article by Tony Thomas titled, “Shooting Santa to Save the World.”

    It’s about a graphic novel, “Climate Changed” by Philippe Squarzoni. In this novel a woman armed with an automatic rifle goes to a shopping mall and murders three department store Santas for the sake of “energy issues,” read AGW. Squarzoni himself is her fictional lover.

    The novel is apparently fulsomely praised by Jean Jouzel, a high-level IPCC scientist. Jouzel apparently also appears in the novel, holding forth on the scientific truth of it all.

    I see this sort of thing as a literary rehearsal for the real thing. It’s is an inducement to political murder, no more no less. Some AGW skeptic will be the likely victim. If that happens, I’ve no doubt but that this and/or similar literature will be found to have provided the impetus.

    If that ever happens, it will be as much on Jouzel’s head as on Squarzoni’s.

    The front cover of the book, by the way, touts Jouzel as, “IPCC vice-chair, co-recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize.”

  12. ???

    21 Oct: SMH: Peter Hannam: Pacific warms towards El Nino levels as Australia heats up
    Ocean temperatures are again warming in the Pacific, helping to drive global temperatures to new highs and also leaving conditions primed for an El Nino event to be declared in coming months.
    The Bureau of Meteorology said sea surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific had warmed closer to El Nino-threshold levels in the past fortnight.
    “They’re at the warmest levels they’ve been since the build-up [for an El Nino] started in March,” Andrew Watkins, manager of climate prediction services, told Fairfax Media.However, meteorologists are yet to see the signature elements of such an event, such as a sustained stalling or reversal of the east-west trade winds, Dr Watkins said.
    One reason why the atmosphere to yet to “couple” with the oceans and reinforce conditions needed for an El Nino to develop is that sea surface temperatures also remain warmer than usual in the western Pacific, he said. Without that temperarure gradient, winds won’t reverse…
    Australia is already experiencing unusually warm temperatures and rainfall deficiencies typical for an El Nino year. Clear night skies in inland areas are also leading to frost – another symptom, Dr Watkins said…
    A huge pool of heat will settle over much of South Australia, Northern Territory and Queensland with maximums of 42 degrees or more for Sunday and Monday…
    The fact 2014 may challenge for the hottest year even with at most a weak El Nino is one reason climatologists warn action must be taken to curb the rise of greenhouse gas emissions that trap ever more heat from the sun.
    The bureau’s Dr Watkins said heat records could be broken even without a “full-blown El Nino” because of the planet’s broadscale warming. Sea-surface temperatures in the central Pacific, for instance, had increased by about 0.5 degrees since the 1950s.

  13. 21 Oct: Guardian: Adam Vaughan: Divest MPs’ pension fund from fossil fuels, says Caroline Lucas
    Green party MP calls on parliament to pull money out of gas, coal and oil investments
    MPs should follow in the footsteps of the Rockeller family, Glasgow University and churches around the world by pulling their pension fund investments out of fossil fuels, according to Caroline Lucas.
    The Green party MP says the £487m Parliamentary Contributory Pension Fund should join the movement of hundreds of institutions worldwide who have already divested $50bn (£31bn) from gas, coal and oil investments as a way of tackling climate change. A University of Oxford study says the campaign has grown faster than any previous divestment movements, including those on apartheid and tobacco.
    Lucas has written to Brian Donohoe, the chairman of the fund’s trustees board, telling him that she is particularly concerned that the fund is contributing to global warming and of the economic risk to such assets if governments put in place “effective climate regulation”…
    Lucas said the divestment campaign had benefited from comments by the governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, who said earlier this month that the “vast majority of reserves are unburnable.”…
    Donohoe, a Labour MP for Central Ayrshire, said he did not think fossil fuels were an investment the fund should avoid, or pull out of.
    “We’ve got to balance what individuals like she [Lucas] will say about certain investments… [with] the good of the fund…
    He added that his personal view was that Lucas was a lone voice on the issue. “I don’t know what she’s talking about frankly. If she’s talking about stopping taking coal out of the earth, that would have to be universally applied, there’d be a closure to all coal-fired power stations. That would have quite a significant impact on Soctland and perhaps elsewhere. I don’t know where she’s coming from on this one.”…

  14. Anthony, This is Crushing to the Hockey Stick and that past warm periods did not occur. Them finding this stuff lately only means one thing, the climate was as warm now as then.

    Found 1300-Year-Old Ski and 6000-Year-Old Arrows in Reinheimen

    Post Name
    Mann’s Hockey Stick takes crushing blow from the Ski Stick
    We should name this period 1,300 years ago the Ski Stick Period.

  15. Sadly, there is no transcript that I know of, but here’s the alarmists at it again, morphing the story again as necessary to keep the hype up:

    The first seven minutes feature John Allis of the US Army Corps of Engineers to talk about the recent record rises in Great Lakes water levels (in direct contrast to last years dire predictions of continued water loss in the Great Lakes) with the moderator/interviewer trying desperately to get him to say that we were going into continued rise and how scary that is and John Allis repeatedly swaying: well – we try to predict 6 months out, and in the 4-6 month time frame our predictions are already pretty sketchy so I’m not willing to make any statements at all further out.

    For the last 10 minutes, after bidding farewell to John Allis, Michael Murray of the National Wildlife Federation is brought to opine on all the doom and gloom scenarios that rising water levels will bring on: increased erosion, increased algal blooms, endangered drinking water, dogs and cats living together – you get the idea.

    It’s a pretty disgusting example of tabloid journalism finding ways to make rising water levels in the Great Lakes as much of a boogey man as possible until the trend, inevitably, reverses and they can start screaming global climate change and droughts again.

  16. The major sunspot now rotating around to face earth is by far the largest sunspot since at least 2003 and possesses highly unstable magnetic fields. In other words, this one could produce a monster X10+ class solar flare at any time with possible major coronal mass ejections. Given that there is some evidence that extreme flares tend to happen later in solar cycles (e.g., the Carrington event was late in a weak solar cycle), this deserves a news blurb to watch if notching else.

    • “This behemoth active region is 125,000 km wide, almost as big as the planet Jupiter. These dimensions make it an easy target for backyard solar telescopes–hence so many pictures in the realtime photo gallery.”

      “A few days ago, AR2192 unleashed an X1-class solar flare. Since then the sunspot has almost doubled in size and developed an increasingly unstable ‘beta-gamma-delta’ magnetic field. It would seem to be just a matter of time before another strong explosion occurs. NOAA forecasters estimate at 60% chance of M-class flares and a 20% chance of X-flares on Oct. 21st.”

  17. From a comment on one of Huff Puff’s climate scary stories:

    ‘If it gets much warmer, we will all freeze to death’

  18. Hi Antony ,
    I’m sure your readers will LOVE this SKY News Part 2 Richo and Jones ripping apart a climate alarmist .
    Brought tears to my eyes that this could ever get done on mainstream media ,

    Cheers and thanks so much for your good work

  19. climate saviour Obama not to blame:

    21 Oct: Guardian: Suzanne Goldenberg: US greenhouse gas emissions rise despite Obama’s new climate change push
    Federal agency finds that emissions increased during 2014 polar vortex, raising questions about US’s targeted 2020 cuts
    America’s energy-related carbon pollution rose 2.5% last year despite President Barack Obama’s efforts to fight climate change, according to new federal data.
    The rise in emissions from burning coal, oil, natural gas and other fossil fuels was one of the steepest on record in the last 25 years, according to the Energy Information Administration’s Monthly Energy Review…
    The chill Arctic temperatures of last year’s polar vortex can shoulder much of the blame…
    The data also showed a 4.8% increase in the use of energy from coal, and a 10% fall in energy from natural gas…

  20. ???

    21 Oct: CarbonBrief: Robert McSweeney: Worst case scenarios of sea level rise, and why scientists and policymakers consider them
    Sea levels could rise by a maximum of 190 centimetres by the end of the century, according to a new study, which examines a worst case scenario for sea level rise.
    In reality, the amount of sea level rise we get is likely to be less than that. But scientists and policymakers examine such ‘worst case’ scenarios to safeguard against climate risks…
    The new study, published in Environmental Research Letters, considers the assessment of 13 ice sheet experts. They conclude that the contribution from ice sheets is likely to be greater than projected by the IPCC…

  21. ‘Remember Montini’s words: “It is the idea that leads man, that generates man’s strength. A man without an idea is a man without personality.” Be able to combine the primacy of reality with the force of ideas that you have researched. Your task is to assume this challenge with the creativity of young people and the gratuitous and free dedication of university study!’

    Papal address concerning the need to search for truth.
    No mention of specifics but an insight into his idea of the scientific method uncovering reality.
    He is a chemist.

    In this context the ‘primacy of reality’ in some cases has been divorced from the ‘force of ideas’,when one considers the prominent AGW modelling paradigm.

  22. 2005 JPA Ioannidis published: Why Most Published Research Findings Are False
    Now he advocates changes:
    How to Make Scientists Publish the Truth

    Source: Ioannidis JPA (2014). “How to Make More Published Research True.” PLoS Med 11(10): e1001747. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001747

    Summary Points
    Currently, many published research findings are b><false or exaggerated, and an estimated 85% of research resources are wasted.
    To make more published research true, practices that have improved credibility and efficiency in specific fields may be transplanted to others which would benefit from them—possibilities include the adoption of large-scale collaborative research; replication culture; registration; sharing; reproducibility practices; better statistical methods; standardization of definitions and analyses; more appropriate (usually more stringent) statistical thresholds; and improvement in study design standards, peer review, reporting and dissemination of research, and training of the scientific workforce.
    Selection of interventions to improve research practices requires rigorous examination and experimental testing whenever feasible.
    Optimal interventions need to understand and harness the motives of various stakeholders who operate in scientific research and who differ on the extent to which they are interested in promoting publishable, fundable, translatable, or profitable results.
    Modifications need to be made in the reward system for science, affecting the exchange rates for currencies (e.g., publications and grants) and purchased academic goods (e.g., promotion and other academic or administrative power) and introducing currencies that are better aligned with translatable and reproducible research.

    Also applicable to Climate Science

  23. Finally some scientists have “discovered” that plants CAN cope with and adapt to climate change. They “subjected natural ecosystems to an experimental drought over the course of nine years, simulating predicted future climate scenarios. In the course of their experiment, conducted in four different ecosystems ranging from desert (3.5 inches of annual rainfall) to moist Mediterranean woodland (30.7 inches of annual rainfall), the researchers found that, contrary to predictions, no measurable changes in annual vegetation could be seen.”

    Press release at:

    Full paper at:

  24. Now, here’s an oddity:
    NOAA employee charged with stealing U.S. dam information
    Chen was accused of accessing restricted areas of the National Inventory of Dams on various days in May 2012 and downloading sensitive files and providing false information to investigators in June 2013, prosecutors said.
    The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the National Dam Safety Review Board maintain the database, which consists of dams meeting certain hazard or height criteria.


  25. Storms coming to WA & OR:

    Recently the CPC was expecting a drier than average period for WA & OR but I can’t find the old report. They seem to have a new one up that reflects the current weather now approaching the Cascade Mountains. The Olympics may get 5 inches tonight (Tues., 21st) and generally it will be wet, breezy, and cooling. Some flooding. Similar continues.

    The monthly drought outlook released 9/30 for October still shows OR & WA to become drier.

    I have a screen capture.

  26. Abraham’s insults come thick & fast:

    22 Oct: Guardian: John Abraham: Another global warming contrarian paper found to be unrealistic and inaccurate
    Abraham et al. show that a paper by ‘sceptics’ Spencer & Braswell is rife with unrealistic assumptions in an overly simple model
    It’s hard to find a reputable scientist who denies that human emissions of greenhouse gases are warming the planet and that there will be consequences for human society and the biological health of the planet. There are a few holdouts who, for various reasons, either think humans are not causing warming or that the warming will not have much consequence.
    Some members of this vocal minority spend a lot of time trying to convince the public that they are right…
    Well, again this year, I’ve wasted my time (and my colleagues’ time) by rebutting a 2014 paper published by the darling of the Dwindling Few, Roy Spencer…
    Before we get into the errors, let’s talk about what their model does…

  27. 21 Oct: The Blaze: Erica Ritz: PayPal Co-Founder Is Skeptical of Man-Made Global Warming for This Reason
    PayPal co-founder Peter Thiel, often considered one of the most influential people in Silicon Valley, said Tuesday that he is skeptical of man-made global warming because many refuse to allow debate the subject.
    “Whenever you can’t have a debate, I often think that’s evidence that there’s a problem,” Thiel said on The Glenn Beck Program. “When people use the word ‘science,’ it’s often a tell, like in poker, that you’re bluffing. It’s like we have ‘social science’ and we have ‘political science,’ [but] we don’t call it ‘physical science’ or ‘chemical science.’ We just call them physics and chemistry because we know they’re right.”…
    “The weather has not been getting warmer for the last 15 years. The hockey stick that Al Gore predicted in the early 2000s on the climate has not happened,” he remarked. “And I think as this monolithic culture breaks down, you can have more debates.”…

  28. 19 Oct: Boston Globe: Latif Nasser: When island nations drown, who owns their seas?
    As climate change jeopardizes the huge ocean claims of tiny nations, experts propose some bold legal solutions
    Over the past several years, it’s become clear that one of the starkest potential effects of climate change is the existential threat that rising oceans pose to the world’s low-lying island nations…
    A set of legal scholars from around the world has started to propose new ways to conceive of these ocean rights, so that if and when the islanders are forced to move, their economic domains might still survive as a national asset…
    Several, including UC Berkeley School of Law’s David Caron, have observed that changing sea boundaries aren’t just a problem for islands: The rising ocean promises to redraw every coastline on the map. Instead of constantly updating maps every time a beach is submerged, they suggest, why not freeze the boundaries in place? For low-lying islands, this would mean that the sea as currently measured around Kiribati would become the permanent patrimony of its people—and wherever in exile they end up, the population would continue to receive royalties from its former coastal waters…
    Rosemary Rayfuse of the University of New South Wales in Australia takes a different route to a similar outcome. “An equitable and fair solution,” she writes in a 2013 anthology documenting a Columbia University conference on Threatened Island Nations, “would be the recognition in international law of a new category of State, ‘the deterritorialized state.’”…
    , such a landless state does exist today. The Knights of Malta (not to be confused with the country of Malta) are a 900-year-old lay Catholic order who today have no land, but do have a nonvoting seat at the United Nations…

  29. Possibly one of the scariest articles I have ever seen on the UK energy outlook, a mixture of complacency and outright lies.

    1. The BBC is very excited, as one might expect from a flagship ecoloon organisation, that yesterday the UK (one of the windiest days this year) saw wind power generation for the first time overtake nuclear power (8 out of 15 of the UK’s nuclear generation plants are currently down.).

    2. A government spokesman from Planet Zarg said a “diverse energy mix” was essential to the UK’s energy security.

    “We’re preventing a predicted energy crunch by turning round a legacy of underinvestment and neglect.

    3. But Jennifer Webber, a Planet Zarg spokeswoman for RenewableUK, the trade body, said: “Wind power is often used as a convenient whipping boy by political opponents and vested interests.

    “All the while, it’s been quietly powering millions of homes across the UK and providing a robust response to its vocal detractors.”

    If you believe either of these two last statements, I have a very nice British bridge I can sell you. There is virtually no investment in UK energy, other than in intermittent, unreliable, expensive wind power and the spokesperson for RenewableUK quietly ignores the fact that wind power is generally 2-4 times more expensive than conventional fossil fuel electricity generation – and that’s when it is working!

    When the inevitable high pressure system, with its negligible winds and extreme cold weather, sits over the UK this winter, it will be comforting to know for those dying from hypothermia that it was all for a good cause, namely that the smug British political ‘elite’ can be seen to have been green and ‘saving the planet’.

  30. Greenpeacer in CO advocates vote fraud to help Udall keep his Senate seat:

    Vote fraud in WA & OR have been rampant since we went to all mail-in voting. Workers in nursing homes & politically active college kids vote for those too old or apathetic to vote for themselves, for starters.

  31. Renewable energies are basically rebranded fossil fuels.
    1.5 hours, but the first half hour is worth watching.

    Ozzie Zehner – Green Illusions
    Webcast sponsored by the Irving K. Barber Learning Centre and hosted by the UBC Reads Sustainability Lecture Series. Ozzie Zehner is the author of Green Illusions and a visiting scholar at the University of California, Berkeley.
    Zehner primarily researches the social, political and economic conditions influencing energy policy priorities and project outcomes. His work also incorporates symbolic roles that energy technologies play within political and environmental movements. (edited for brevity)


    In case this doesn’t link the story is that the commissioners of South Miami, suburb of Miami, FL want the south half of Florida to secede from the union. Their thinking is that the southern half of Florida has climate change issues to which the northern part of the state is not exposed.

  33. (Michael Mann is coming to Los Angeles on October 23 — entrance is free. This text is from a mailing by the Center for Inquiry, a “skeptical” organization that is nevertheless completely sold on CAGW. — KDH)

    Climatologists To Discuss Global Warming Issues at Hammer Museum Thursday

    Climatologists Brenda Ekwurzel and Michael Mann will be speaking on “Tackling Climate Change Nationally and Globally” at 7:30 p.m. tomorrow in the Billy Wilder Theater at the Hammer Museum, 10899 Wilshire Boulevard in Los Angeles.

    Despite the overwhelming scientific consensus that global warming is a danger to the planet, little progress has been made to reduce CO2 emissions. Ekwurzel and Mann will examine the issue. Ekwurzel works with the Union of Concerned Scientists to increase support for strong climate legislation. Mann, who is a member of the National Center for Science Education’s Advisory Council, contributed to the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007, and is the author of The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars: Dispatches From The Front Lines and Dire Predictions: Understanding Global Warming.

    The event is free and open to the public, but seating is limited, and early arrival is recommended. For further information, visit:

  34. something to look forward to???

    22 Oct: Bloomberg: Alex Morales: Five Years, 2,000 Scientists and How Do You Wake People Up to Climate Change?
    The U.S. and European Union are pushing for a stronger explanation about the dangers of climate change and the consequences of failing to stem fossil-fuel emissions in the UN’s most extensive report on global warming.
    The appeals are detailed in a document putting together comments from more than 30 governments about the United Nations report, due to be published next month. The study is the culmination of five years of work by some 2,000 scientists.
    “This report is a story of what happens if we don’t act, and what can happen if we do,” U.S. negotiators wrote. “It should be an effective story.” The text, they said, “lacks a threading narrative.” …
    In one remark, the U.S. team said authors should strike more of a balance because “there are very few references to the vulnerability of wealthier countries to climate change.” …
    “What about drought? Cyclones? Wildfires? Policymakers care deeply about extreme events,” the U.S. team wrote…
    The comments were obtained from a person with official access to the study who asked not to be identified because the discussions are confidential…
    The final wording of that paper will be debated line by line at a meeting next week in Copenhagen…

  35. 22 Oct: UK Express: Jason Taylor: Climate change PROVED to be ‘nothing but a lie’, claims top meteorologist
    THE debate about climate change is finished – because it has been categorically proved NOT to exist, one of the world’s leading meteorologists has claimed.
    John Coleman, who co-founded the Weather Channel, shocked academics by insisting the theory of man-made climate change was no longer scientifically credible.
    Instead, what ‘little evidence’ there is for rising global temperatures points to a ‘natural phenomenon’ within a developing eco-system.
    In an open letter attacking the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, he wrote: “The ocean is not rising significantly.
    “The polar ice is increasing, not melting away. Polar Bears are increasing in number.
    “Heat waves have actually diminished, not increased. There is not an uptick in the number or strength of storms (in fact storms are diminishing).
    “I have studied this topic seriously for years. It has become a political and environment agenda item, but the science is not valid.”…
    President Obama told 120 world leaders at the United Nations climate summit last month that America had done more under his watch in cutting greenhouse gases than any other country.
    Despite this, the Energy Information Administration’s Monthly Energy Review showed an increase in the use of energy from coal…
    Climate expert William Happer, from Princeton University, supported Mr Coleman’s claims…

  36. What’s going on with Sea Surface Temperatures in the northern hemisphere?
    Is this UNISYS SST map showing correct temperature anomalies?

  37. Was addressing medical research, but applies to all fields

    How to Make More Published Research True by John P. A. Ioannidis mail

    Summary Points

    Currently, many published research findings are false or exaggerated, and an estimated 85% of research resources are wasted.
    To make more published research true, practices that have improved credibility and efficiency in specific fields may be transplanted to others which would benefit from them—possibilities include the adoption of large-scale collaborative research; replication culture; registration; sharing; reproducibility practices; better statistical methods; standardization of definitions and analyses; more appropriate (usually more stringent) statistical thresholds; and improvement in study design standards, peer review, reporting and dissemination of research, and training of the scientific workforce.
    Selection of interventions to improve research practices requires rigorous examination and experimental testing whenever feasible.
    Optimal interventions need to understand and harness the motives of various stakeholders who operate in scientific research and who differ on the extent to which they are interested in promoting publishable, fundable, translatable, or profitable results.
    Modifications need to be made in the reward system for science, affecting the exchange rates for currencies (e.g., publications and grants) and purchased academic goods (e.g., promotion and other academic or administrative power) and introducing currencies that are better aligned with translatable and reproducible research.

  38. Weather Service stops receiving satellite data, issues notice about forecast quality

    At 1 p.m. today, the National Weather Service’s National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) issued the following statement cautioning the outage could impact forecast quality:


    Check feeds through NCEP


    Link to an MIT report on how a European study is being touted as showing the “true” cost of energy sources by including environmental effects. There is an embedded link to the full report in this article. Thought it might generate some interesting discussion.

    • Should have mentioned how slanted this analysis is in favor of wind. Fossil fuel got dinged pretty heavy due to climate effects.

  40. Good day Anthony,

    The Northpole see-ice has reach Nova Zembla already!!, thats this century the most early date, in 2002 and 2006 it hapened a few days later, the rest of the years in this century it was half/end november! that the ice touched Nova Zembla for the first time.


  41. no doubt out to impress their beloved Obama – who they see as a fellow climate warrior – at the G20…but it backfires badly:

    24 Oct: SMH: Latika Bourke: Australian Youth Climate Coalition removes anti-coal poster after backlash
    Young climate activists have been accused of comparing coal miners to paedophiles in a poster that has since been taken down from the internet after a social media backlash.
    The Australian Youth Climate Coalition was considering posting the image on a billboard at Brisbane airport during next month’s G20 summit.
    It features a man’s coal-marked hands covering the mouth of a young frightened-looking girl with the slogan ‘Don’t Let the Coal Lobby Get their Dirty Hands On Our Future’.
    But social media users complained that the picture of a man’s blackened hands covering a young girl’s face looked “paedophilic”..
    “This is sick, AYCC is comparing paedophilia with hardworking coal mining Australians,” one pro-mining user tweeted…
    “Their latest effort to demonise the coal industry including the many hard working coal miners in my electorate is to compare them to the perpetrators of domestic violence or child abductors,” he said.
    “How low will the extreme green groups go?”

    meanwhile, in Obamaland, Wyoming coal is booming:

    23 Oct: Chicago Tribune: Bloomberg: Tim Loh: Coal miners fired in Appalachia getting hired in Wyoming
    It’s boom times in Wyoming for embattled U.S. coal companies, where the mining industry is hiring workers while shedding them in Appalachia…
    “It’s going to be running a good while in Wyoming, because of how much coal they put out,” said King, who expects to start work by next month. While he doesn’t know what he’ll be earning, a friend made the move a year ago and since then his base pay has increased to about $35 an hour from $25…
    Looking at one of the North Antelope pits, he points to a coal seam that’s 60 feet (18 meters) high, and runs north for more than 50 miles.
    “I don’t see the end of it,” he said. “It just continues to grow.”…
    The area is also home to oil and gas production, and about half of Gillette’s workers are in the energy industry or supporting fields, according to the local chamber of commerce…

  42. Anthony,
    Scientists have uncovered a cache of satellite images of Earth from the 1960s that had been forgotten in storage for nearly 50 years and that push back the first satellite images of our planet a full 17 years

    The trove includes the first publicly available satellite photos of Europe, the earliest aerial views of Antarctica’s ice, and a record of Central Asia’s Aral Sea before it dried up. There’s also a rare photo of the most powerful storm to hit North America in modern times.

  43. Hello Anthony,

    Today is exactly 9 years since the last major hurricane landfall in U.S. (Hurricane Wilma).

    A remarkable period of low hurricane activity.

    Many thanks for everything you do!

  44. “If you accept there is a problem in that the ordinary person doesn’t read far into any blog article once they perceive it as “sciency”, then the logical follow on thought is that such an article will never make an appearance in the mainstream media, which we should be aiming to be breaking into. If that isn’t where we want to be, then all the skeptic blogosphere is doing is intellectual incest.”


  45. 2014 study finds Sea Surface Temps and Sea Ice Cover “in the seas surrounding Greenland do not considerably impact” Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance (SMB)” as a result of the katabatic wind blocking effect. These offshore-directed winds prevent oceanic near-surface air, influenced by SIC and SST anomalies, from penetrating far inland. Therefore, the ice sheet SMB response is restricted to coastal regions, where katabatic winds cease.”

    “During recent summers (2007–2012), several surface melt records were broken over the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). The extreme summer melt resulted in part from a persistent negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), favoring warmer atmospheric conditions than normal over the GrIS.”

    Sensitivity of Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance to perturbations in sea surface temperature and sea ice cover: a study with the regional climate model MAR

  46. Anthony,
    Posting in case you’re unaware of this site and your Bio.

    Anthony Watts: Person DB Profile

    Its a pretty amazing News resource.

    About the Carbon Capture Report

    The Carbon Capture Report ( is a free and open service of the University of Illinois devoted to being the preeminent global resource for tracking worldwide perception and developments in Climate Change, Carbon Capture, Carbon Credits, Alternative Energy, Renewable Energy, Green Energy, Biofuels, Geothermal, Hydroelectric, Natural Gas, Nuclear, Solar, Wind, Coal, and Oil. With subscribers in more than 100 countries the Report has become the go-to resource for daily insight into the global media discourse.

    – See more at:

    Interactive Timeline
    Interactive Timeline lets you explore more than 45 indicators about a given topic and more than 15 about any person, organization, location, or news outlet. See the top stories, blog posts, and tweets of each day.
    – See more at:

    Geographic Intelligence
    Geographic Intelligence dives into the content of each story, identifies nuanced worldwide geographic mentions down to the remote hilltop, and delivers that insight overlaid onto Google Maps and Google Earth.
    – See more at:

    Advanced Analytics
    Advanced Analytics use a range of analyses and visualizations to help you make sense of the complex news cycle and gain critical insights into key trends.
    – See more at:

    Biography Databases
    Biography Databases profile the people, organizations, news and blog outlets, Twitterers, and locations of the news that define the global discourse.
    – See more at:

    Daily Email Newsletters
    Daily Email Newsletters deliver breaking insight to your inbox each morning, 365 days of the year.
    – See more at:

  47. @ Mods; the three dots of an ellipsis have a formal use popularly abused by bloggers desiring Herb Caen’s cachet. Caen popularized Three Dot Journalism in his ‘Baghdad by the Bay’ column beginning in 1947.

  48. Florida: Record Nine Years Have Passed Without A Hurricane Landfall, But That Streak Will End … Eventually
    Friday, October 24 marks nine years since Hurricane Wilma made landfall in southwest Florida, a record hurricane-free streak for the Sunshine State.
    This is the longest stretch on record dating to 1851 that no hurricanes have made landfall in the state.

  49. Ice age Andes settlement found at record high altitude.

    12,400-year-old site in Peru shows ice age humans more adaptable than thought

    The discovery, published online Thursday in the journal Science, suggests that just 2,000 years after arriving in South America, humans had already spread into some extreme environments.

    Paleoindian settlement of the high-altitude Peruvian Andes

    • 12.4 kya was in the middle of the YD in NH. But in SH, EPICA Dome C cores shows SH was already rapidly warming at that time. Andes were probably a warm alpine eco-system at that time, probably like Glacier National Park of today. Today they are dry and cooler.

  50. About half of the world’s population relies on traditional fuels such as biomass (wood, agricultural residues, animal dung, and charcoal) as the primary source of domestic energy. Nearly 2 billion kilograms of biomass is burnt everyday in developing countries. Use of open fires for cooking and heating exposes an estimated 2.8 billion people in the world to enhanced concentrations of particulate matter and gases, greatly in excess of the respective, current WHO air quality guidelines for 24-hour and annual mean concentrations. Household air pollution (HAP) from solid cook-fuel use is now estimated to be responsible for nearly 3.5 million deaths annually, with some of the highest disease burdens experienced by countries in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.

    And they are deprived of fossil fuels be cause it puts out to much co2

  51. Really, it’s worse than we thought, much worse…

    The angler’s favourite bait – the humble lugworm – suffers DNA damage as a result of the extra copper. The pollutant harms their sperm, and their offspring don’t develop properly.

    “It’s a bit of a shock, frankly,” said biologist Ceri Lewis from Exeter University, one of the report’s authors. “It means the effects of ocean acidification may be even more serious than we previously thought. We need to look with new eyes at things which we thought were not vulnerable.”

  52. “Global warming has doubled risk of harsh winters in Eurasia, research finds. Severe winters are more likely over the next few decades due to climate change melting Arctic ice and sending freezing air south, according to new research. The risk of severe winters in Europe and northern Asia has been doubled by global warming, according to new research. The counter-intuitive finding is the result of climate change melting the Arctic ice cap and causing new wind patterns that push freezing air and snow southwards. Severe winters over the last decade have been associated with those years in which the melting of Arctic sea ice was greatest. But the new work is the most comprehensive computer modelling study to date and indicates the frozen winters are being caused by climate change, not simply by natural variations in weather.” The Guardian, 26th October 2014.

    Is the current winter exceptionally cold? That’s because of global warming. Is the current winter exceptionally mild? That’s because of global warming. Is there anything, that global warming can’t do?

  53. pure politics, Goldenberg:

    27 Oct: Guardian: Suzanne Goldenberg: Tom Steyer: the green billionaire pouring millions into the midterms
    Former hedge fund executive has given nearly $56m and taken a stand against the Koch brothers by boosting liberal candidates in close races
    With just days to go until the elections, it was revealed that Steyer had poured an additional $15m of his personal fortune into his NextGen Climate Action Fund, raising his contributions to $55.9m, according to Federal Election Commission filings on Monday night.
    The former hedge fund executive has now emerged as the biggest single donor of this election cycle – at least as far as publicly disclosed donations are concerned – and a favorite new punching bag for Republican opponents, a role previously reserved for Al Gore…
    It has already re-cast climate change as an election issue both now and in the 2016 presidential contest, argued Chris Lehane, a Democratic operative who is now NextGen’s chief strategist.
    “We call 2014 a pivotal year for climate,” he said. “If you look around it’s clear that climate has emerged as a top -tier issue.”…
    And there have been reports he (Steyer) is using NextGen as a dry run for his own future political campaign, perhaps for senator or governor of California…

    • Isn’t Tom Steyer the guy who got rich from fossil fuels? If he is now against them he should do the right thing and give back the money he made from fossil fuels. Give ALL the money to the still missing climate refugees.

  54. Hope your Sunday’s going well! Thought you’d be interested if you haven’t already seen:


    Ryan P. Hughes
    Account Executive
    Shirley & Banister Public Affairs
    O: 703-739-5920 | C: 224-723-8688

    Leaked DHS Report Reveals 13 Foreign Suspected Terrorists Illegally Entered Canada from US

    LUBBOCK, Texas — At least 13 men from Africa with terrorist-related records illegally entered Canada from the U.S. since 2010, according to a leaked Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Intelligence Information Report exclusively obtained by Breitbart Texas. The data pertains only to one small region of the vast U.S.-Canadian border. The report reveals that as of September 9, 2014, there have been 155 encounters in the area “involving 344 ethnic Somalis, 21 ethnic Ethiopians, five ethnic Kenyans, two ethnic Djiboutians, two ethnic Nigerians, and one ethnic Sudanese and Congolese subjects who have attempted or succeeded in entering Canada illegally near the Pembina, ND Port of Entry (POE) since June 2010. These encounters INCLUDE 13 SUBJECTS WITH TERRORIST-RELATED RECORDS [Emphasis Added] who have utilized this method of circumventing designated POEs.”

    The report lists several ethnic Somalis…

    [See link for more info. ~mod.]

  55. The HadCrut4 anomaly for September 2014 has just been updated. It is 0.595 deg C, down from 0.667 in August. However, this leaves “The Pause” on very shaky ground, with negative trends extending back before 2014 to only 2 individual months – namely January and March 2005.

    The slight negative trend which was apparent in August stretched back to November 2001, but this has now disappeared.

  56. Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
    Serial Number: 1732
    Issue Time: 2014 Oct 27 2217 UTC

    ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
    Threshold Reached: 2014 Oct 27 2217 UTC
    Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 UTC
    Active Warning: Yes
    Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
    Induced Currents – Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
    Aurora – Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

  57. LOL:

    27 Oct: Science2.0: Don’t Believe In Global Warming? Women Won’t Vote For You
    But marketing scholars say global warming has replaced abortion as the litmus test for why women should be Democrats – if women care about long-term consequences of their actions, that is…
    Jeff Joireman, associate professor of marketing at Washington State University, says in the Journal of Environmental Psychology that “future-oriented” women – and who doesn’t want to be called that? – are the voting bloc most likely to be fine with higher taxes and more regulations…
    Previous surveys have found that women and those with liberal viewpoints are more likely to claim to want to protect the environment than men – and more than female conservatives…
    During hot weeks, people think more about climate change, so Democrats are hoping for a heat wave or a Super Storm, or something that will get future-oriented liberal women to the polls…
    More than 125,000 political spots cite energy, climate change and the environment – more than all other issues except health care and jobs – according to an analysis by Kantar Media/CMAG. But while voters may take the environment seriously, political candidates do not. In California’s 8th Congressional District, both the Democratic incumbent Ami Bera and his Republican challenger Doug Ose invoke science in their advertising, but neither will go on record outlining what their positions are…
    For their paper, the authors confirmed their belief in global warming psyche using a rather subjective personality trait called “consideration of future consequences.”…

  58. Can we expect more failed predictions faster? The UK’s Met Office has decided to keep on trying with a “140-tonne computer” costing about $156,000,000.

    BBC – 28 October 2014
    Met Office to build £97m supercomputer
    Funding has been confirmed for a £97m supercomputer to improve the Met Office’s weather forecasting and climate modelling.

    The facility will work 13 times faster than the current system, enabling detailed, UK-wide forecast models with a resolution of 1.5km to be run every single hour, rather than every three……..

    The extra capacity will also be useful for climate scientists, who need massive amounts of computing power to run detailed models over much longer time scales.

    It will address one of the key challenges of climate projections – to “answer the real questions people need to know”, said Mr Varley.

    “We can tell you that the global average temperature is going to increase by 3C or 4C if we carry on as we are – but the critical question is what is that going to mean for London?……..

    The 140-tonne computer will be split between the Met Office and Exeter Science Park

  59. Don’t know if this has been discussed before……..
    The October Pattern Index (OPI),
    See –
    ……correlates very well with the Arctic oscillation.
    Looking at the second chart in the link and comparing this with the temperature record during the pause, there appears to be correlation.
    The point I make, is that the October pressure pattern seems to be influencing the Arctic oscillation and global? temperatures.
    Is this evidence for a link between the sun’s UV output and its suspected correlation with winter temperatures in Europe and the eastern part of North America, acting through the correlation, via ozone, with the ‘Hadley’ high pressure areas?
    Joanna Haigh, who published research about this in 2010? – see – – is presently, or was, co-operating with NASA on this topic.
    Evidence maybe, that TSI is not the only metric to consider when considering the sun’s cycles.


    If you thought that the medical profession should focus on healing the sick, then you ought to read this article published by the BMJ (British Medical Journal). My reaction was to wonder why on earth the BMJ would be focusing its attention on the climate change debate instead of informing its members about the latest research into the world of medicine. When I visit a doctor I do not want to be lectured about global warming, but perhaps I am old-fashioned.

    at Saturday, October 04, 2014

  61. A request to Anthony: do you have anyone who can tackle this mess of science purporting to show that low Arctic sea-ice in summer affects the Jetstream, causing blocking highs, loops and a wandering polar vortex. Sure, there is a correlation, but that does not mean cause, and this seems to be lost on the journal reviewers and the press. What is needed is an atmospheric scientist to match the input Bob Tisdale gives on the oceans. It seems to me that a top-down explanation is more likely than bottom-up…and that the trigger for shifting jetstreams is the UV status of the Sun….and many years back Drew Shindell at NASA proposed the mechanism for this top-down effect (and maybe some others before him). What happened to that research?

  62. Hi Anthony, I think it would be instructive to include a polynomial fit to the Arctic temperature trend in the Sea Ice page. Presently it shows a warming trend from 1980 of 0.325C/decade. It is falling of course but it will be showing a rising trend 10 years from now, even if it keeps cooling at current rates. Indeed, since 2007, there is a very noticeable cooling. I believe a polynomial fit would be useful to counter the misinformation of continuing rising temperatures. I note also, that the curve is similar to the flat section of global temps since 1998.

  63. BBC – 27 October 2014
    The scientists said the issue of population and its impact on global consumption was often described as the “elephant in the room” – a problem that the world ignores as it is politically and ethically difficult to tackle.

    But the research shows that curbing numbers will not deal with environmental challenges in the short term.

    “Our work reveals that effective family planning and reproduction education worldwide have great potential to constrain the size of the human population and alleviate pressure on resource availability over the longer term,” said Prof Barry Brook from the University of Tasmania.

    “Our great-great-great-great grandchildren might ultimately benefit from such planning, but people alive today will not.”

    Human population reduction is not a quick fix for environmental problems

  64. REF Authors retract study linking weight loss, green coffee REF
    Another story of dishonesty in alleged research.
    Some time ago Stephen McIntyre had an article decrying the inaccuracy of health claims. More evidence in this case.

    Elsewhere, a study shows that children who drink non-dairy milk products are twice as likely to have vitamin-D deficiency as children who drink cow’s milk.
    Duh? In Canada and the US cow’s milk is fortified with vitamin D, but only some non-dairy milk substitutes are.

    (The brief story from Canadian Press did not inform on controls. Some children cannot tolerate milk so would be given plant-based products, but some would have other differences in their diet due to their parents’ beliefs. There’s also the question of whether or not the latter group were kept out of the sun.

    Could I be tempted to chase research dollars for such things? I may not be clever enough to dream up topics.

    PS: A quick check of a jugs shows that cow’s milk from a major dairy company shows it contains 45% of the recommended daily requirements, whereas goat’s milk from a dairy in south central BC has none.

  65. culling 2 billion of our species will not be enough!

    27 Oct: BBC: Matt McGrath: Population controls ‘will not solve environment issues’
    A worldwide one-child policy would mean the number of people in 2100 remained around current levels, according to a study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
    Even a catastrophic event that killed billions of people would have little effect on the overall impact, it said…
    To work out the impact on population, the team constructed nine different scenarios for population change up to the year 2100, using data from the World Health Organization, and the US Census Bureau’s international database.
    They also used “catastrophe scenarios” to simulate the impacts of climate disruption, wars or global pandemics on population trends…
    “We’ve gone past the point where we can do it easily, just by the sheer magnitude of the population, what we call the demographic momentum. We just can’t stop it fast enough,” said Prof Corey Bradshaw from the University of Adelaide…
    They found that even an event that wiped out two billion people would still leave about eight and a half billion in 2100.
    “Even if we had a third world war in the middle of this century, you would barely make a dent in the trajectory over the next 100 years,” said Prof Bradshaw, something he described as “sobering”…

  66. 28 Oct: UK Express: Jane Mathews: Blackout Britain: UK faces power outages if winter is long and cold, warns National Grid
    THE NATIONAL grid has warned that emergency measures may be needed to keep the lights on this winter.
    However, shadow secretary for energy and climate change Caroline Flint said that it was “very unlikely” the UK would suffer blackouts.
    Speaking to ITV’s This Morning, she said that we needed to reduce pressure on the grid to prepare for ageing power stations going “offline” over the next decade.
    But she added: “I don’t think there will be blackouts this winter, but there will be some announcements about how we can lessen the pressure on the grid.
    “For the long term, it’s about making sure we get the investment in where we need it.”
    ***She said that the focus should be on “newer, cleaner” forms of energy, adding that onshore wind farming was the “cheapest energy around”….

    ***how comforting!

  67. With Halloween coming up, cordial greetings to Critical Thinkers, Dissenters, Iconoclasts, Mavericks, Non-conformists, Questioners and Skeptics!

  68. Hey Anthony, I’m looking for an explanation of why the Mauna Loa CO2 graph looks so ‘regular’. The smooth incline of CO2 seems to be, well, too smooth. I would have thought there would be a lot more inter-year variation in the rate of increase, with much more noise. Particularly in years with more volcanic activity etc.

  69. 28 Oct: Fox News: Kelly File: Weather Channel founder blasts climate change
    This is a rush transcript from “The Kelly File,” October 27, 2014.
    JOHN COLEMAN, WEATHER CHANNEL CO-FOUNDER: Well, it’s very easy. But thank you for having me on your program. You know, a climate skeptic can rarely get on TV, ever since Al Gore made it a plank of the Democratic Party.
    KELLY: And they say you’re a “Looney Tunes” if you don’t believe it.
    COLEMAN: You bet, and I been in the TV news organizations now for 60 years, and I only met two Republicans the whole time, and they were both hiding in the closet.

  70. 28 Oct: HuffPo: Jackson Connor: Weather Channel Co-Founder Tells Fox News Host Global Warming Is A Myth
    Coleman stunned many global warming ***supporters in October with an open letter he penned claiming that the science behind climate change was “not valid.” …

    ***global warming SUPPORTERS??? guess it’s those people who feel no shame reporting headlines such as:

    New Study: Global Warming Has Doubled The Risk Of Extreme Winters In Europe
    ThinkProgress – ‎Oct 27, 2014‎

  71. this Guy is obviously a global warming “supporter”!

    28 Oct: LifeSiteNews: Kirsten Anderson: Former U. of Arizona prof: We must destroy modern civilization to save Earth from global warming
    Guy McPherson, who left academia in 2009 for “ethical reasons,” says humanity will be extinct by 2030 no matter what we do, so for the sake of the other species on Earth, we must “terminate industrial civilization” and abandon the modern technology that gives us electricity, worldwide mobility, clean drinking water, and medical care; to say nothing of the creature comforts of modern life…
    “I think there’s ample chance we can save the living planet, but not our species. … Some people think that this whole thing is about us,” McPherson told the Paul Henry Show in New Zealand last week, during a tour to promote his new book Extinction Dialogues: How To Live With Death In Mind. ..
    “I work toward collapse,” McPherson says in an essay on his website. “Largely unafflicted by the arrogance of humanism, I work on behalf of non-human species. Industrial civilization is destroying every aspect of the living planet, and I know virtually nobody who wants to stop the runaway train. Yes, collapse will kill us. But our deaths are guaranteed regardless, unless I missed a memo.”…

  72. behind paywall. big political move by BoE, prompted by Defra:

    BoE demands climate answers from insurers
    Financial Times – ‎Oct 27, 2014‎

    27 Oct: IFA Magazine: BoE wants climate answers from insurers
    About 30 insurance companies have received a letter from the Bank of England (BoE), as Threadneedle Street officials aim to assess the risks that climate change poses to their solvency and earnings.
    The BoE looks to be increasingly worried about the potential financial fallout generated by concerns over global warming and has written to a number of insurers asking if they were aware when their business models might become affected by changing temperatures or extreme weather disasters.
    According to a Financial Times report, the letter from the bank’s Prudential Regulation Auhtority also asks the insurers whether they have considered they way their investment portfolios could be impacted by climate change…
    ‘We understand the commercial consequences of climate change for the insurance sector,’ said Steve Waygood, responsible investment chief at Aviva Investors, was quoted as saying by the newspaper.
    ‘The government can’t expect the insurance industry to do its job of dealing with climate change. It’s the job of global governments to correct the market failures that exist. They cannot regulate us into doing that for them.’

    28 Oct: Daily Caller: Michael Bastasch: Central Bankers Demand Insurers Assess Climate Risks Despite Lull In Extreme Weather
    The Bank of England is demanding about 30 insurance companies assess the risks that global warming poses to their balance sheets, despite reports of a lull in natural disasters and healthy profit margins in the industry…
    While the U.K. flooding was certainly a dramatic event, there is little evidence that global warming is causing natural disasters to become more frequent or intense. In fact, the insurance market Lloyd’s of London reported in September that its profits were being boosted by a lack of natural disasters this year…READ ALL

  73. re the study in BBC Matt McGrath piece – Population controls ‘will not solve environment issues’ :

    just noticed:

    PNAS: Human population reduction is not a quick fix for environmental problems
    by Corey J. A. Bradshaw and Barry W. Brook
    ***Edited by Paul R. Ehrlich, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, and approved September 15, 2014 (received for review June 5, 2014)

    ***Ehrlich’s involvement explains it all.

  74. What I find curious is this announcement explicitly acknowledges there is a debate over the meme of Global Warming = More & Worse Hurricanes.

    “Although such increases are correlated with warming oceans and are consistent with the thermodynamic theory of hurricane intensity, there remains doubt about the interpretation, integrity, and meaning of these results.” Hmmm … might there be blow back from scientists about the highjacking of science by politics? I’m just saying’.

  75. Anthony, your favourite Aussie wind turbine has been taken down to make way for a new coal loader! How ironic!! Seventeen years ago, in a fit of green stupidity, a wind turbine was installed near Newcastle, NSW, Australia and the energy company promptly enabled green minded suckers to be charged extra for the output from it. The figures seem to indicate that it only produced energy 17% of the time it was there, typical!

  76. OK I have had enough of this already. Here are 2 headlines, one from the left leaning Guardian and one from the right leaning Daily Telegraph. Both report on research suggesting colder NH winters are caused by global warming!

    Guardian – 26 October 2014
    Global warming has doubled risk of harsh winters in Eurasia, research finds

    Daily Telegraph – 27 October 2014
    Cold winters have been caused by global warming: new research

    Yet over the years the IPCC, climate scientists, and published papers have been telling us
    THE OPPOSITE. How is this global warming thing supposed to work on winters again?

      • The climate hysterics are really desperate. They cannot account for the massive failure of their carbon dioxide = global warming religious basis so they have taken up chanting a few mantras to keep the faithful happy. These mantras include such barefaced lies as “97% of scientists agree that man-made CO2 causes global warming” and “sea levels are rising because of AGW” and “hurricanes and storms are getting worse because of AGW” and “the polar ice caps are melting because of AGW” etc… One of the most popular mantras is the “global warming = global cooling” nonsense which is given regular exposure on the climate hysterics favorite media platforms. No scientific explanation is ever offered about the mechanism by which CO2 is converted into atmospheric heat which then by some sort of environmental magic manages to actually cool large portions of the Earth, so do not waste your time looking for them.

        What you are seeing and hearing is nothing more than the chanting of a religious mantra for which any basis of belief is self-delusion, and all their scientific-sounding assertions are nothing more than the chatterings and ravings of the scientifically illiterate and the hollow echoes of their insane worshipers.

  77. We have NOAA reporting that 2013 was tied for the fourth hottest year on record, but the EIA just released their assessment of 2013. Seems there were 18.5% more heating degree days in 2013 causing a 0.5% in the amount of energy used per dollar of GDP. They claim the trend from 2003 to 2012 had this ratio decreasing by ~2% per year.

    A summary of the report is here:

    So which is it? A hot year as claimed by NOAA or a colder year as claimed by EIA? I suppose NOAA is global and EIA is just the USA. Still it seems at odds with each other. I first saw a news article on the report on MIT Technology Review where the writers are definitely supporters of AGW.

    “Blame the Weather for Last Year’s Rise in U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions”

  78. Not my cafe latte!

    Guardian – 29 October 2014
    8 foods you’re about to lose due to climate change
    As worsening drought and extreme weather devastate crops, you may begin seeing global warming when you open your fridge

    What does climate change taste like?

    It’s an odd question, but an increasingly pertinent one…….

    …….Corn (and the animals that eat it)…….
    …….Coffee …….
    …….Maple syrup…….
    …….Wine grapes…….

  79. Nate Lewis of Cal Tech is working on converting sunlight to liquid fuel for large scale energy storage. He has a number of lectures on YouTube that are very good at explaining the realities and scale of energy storage. He is also a big critic of biofuels. This video is representative:

    • AW, I have paper in pdf if you or Bob would like to review it.

      Here is the conclusion from the deFreitas paper.

      Using well-accepted homogenization methods, we have
      derived a mean land surface air temperature trend for New
      Zealand over the past century of 0.28±0.29 °C per century,
      which is considerably less than the S81/M10 value of 0.91±
      0.30 °C per century. By excluding weighted averages and
      including adjustments which are not statistically significant,
      S81 may have allowed too many “false positives” to occur. In
      addition, using long comparison time periods may have
      allowed creeping inhomogeneities and undocumented shifts
      at reference sites to skew the individual adjustments. This is
      borne out by Table 5, which demonstrates that in every case
      the S81 station adjustments greatly increased the individual
      trends, while the RS93 method resulted in equal numbers of
      increases and decreases. As noted previously, S81 did not
      account for gradual effects such as sheltering or UHI. The
      detrending of Albert Park in Auckland and Kelburn in Wellington
      also contributed significantly to the mean trend result.
      We have also shown that a very similar outcome would follow
      if those two stations were not corrected but simply omitted
      from the series.

  80. Australia – calling for weather bureau inquiry, see:

    Nationals MP George Christensen calls for weather bureau inquiry

    A Nationals MP has called for an inquiry into the weather bureau accusing it of fudging figures on the impact of climate change.
    George Christensen says the Bureau Of Meteorology has wiped off early temperature records to justify its claims the weather is getting hotter.
    He pointed to records of the drought 118 years ago where temperatures were hitting 50C in Camden, NSW, 44C in Perth and 43C in Geelong, Victoria.
    The Queensland MP questioned the bureau’s claims that 2013 was the hottest year on record.
    “How could it be getting hotter … if it was really hotter 118 years ago,” he told parliament on Wednesday.
    “It’s relatively simple: the early years are simply wiped from the official record.”
    Mr Christensen said the bureau has been involved in a process of “homogenisation” — changing raw data so the past appears cooler than the present.
    He will be seeking an inquiry into the bureau’s conduct and the homogenisation process this week.
    “We have a scientific process being tainted at the source,” he said.

  81. BBC just had lengthy, scary interview with Maplecroft’s Allan and Fairfax/Reuters naturally has it. too. Maplecroft has been at it for years, & the MSM laps it up every time:

    30 Oct: SMH: Reuters: Climate change a ‘threat multiplier for farming-dependent nations: report
    Climate change and food insecurity are “threat multipliers”, and 32 countries dependent on farming face an “extreme risk” of conflict or civil unrest in the next 30 years, a global analytics firm said on Wednesday.
    Food shortages and rising prices have the potential to worsen political, ethnic, class and religious tensions, the risk advisory firm Maplecroft reported in its annual “Climate Change and Environmental Risk Atlas (CCERA)”.
    Analysts noted that several nations’ military leaders are ahead of their governments in focusing on such risks.
    In Nigeria, for instance, the rise of the Muslim insurgency Boko Haram may be linked to population movements caused by a west African drought a decade ago, the UK-based company said…
    “I think the most surprising thing (the new data shows) is how closely linked food security and climate change are,” James Allan, Maplecroft’s associate director, told the Thomson Reuters Foundation. “We were not expecting this level of linkage.”…
    The Maplecroft study echoes reports from the Pentagon and other military bodies about the security implications of global warming…

  82. 29 Oct: TheWeatherNetwork: Scott Sutherland, Meteorologist: Zombie glaciers? Some ‘dead’ glaciers come back to life, sloughing off parts of themselves in the process
    A large glacier in southeastern Iceland is apparently joining in the ‘zombie’ craze that’s been sweeping the world in recent years, as it adjusts to the increasingly disruptive influence of climate change…
    However, on a recent trip to Iceland’s Falljökull glacier, a team of scientists from the British Geological Survey (BGS) discovered that this icesheet is somewhere between ‘alive’ and ‘dead’ – in effect, a zombie glacier…
    “We took a fully 3D view deep inside Falljökull and what we saw was rapid changes in the structure, a form of ‘downsizing’, to adjust to the changes in climate,” said Emrys Phillips the lead author of the study, soon to be published in the AGU’s Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface, according to the statement…
    “This type of behavior has never been described before,” Phillips said, according to the AGU, adding “We think that other steep, mountain glaciers around the world may be responding in a similar way, rapidly adjusting their active length in response to recent warming of the climate.”
    (H/T to John Upton at

  83. unbelievable!

    29 Oct: The Atlantic: David A. Graham: Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel: Get Used to Endless War
    From ISIS to climate change, the Pentagon chief says, the threats that face the United States are long-term challenges.
    It sure seems like there are frightening events happening everywhere today—from ISIS to Ebola, Russian imperialism to Chinese saber-rattling, climate change to congressional dysfunction. But is it really worse, or will this, too, pass?
    Bad news: It’s really worse, Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel told James Fallows at the Washington Ideas Festival Wednesday….
    And Hagel didn’t seem especially sanguine that it would end anytime soon. In other words: Get used to endless war…
    He noted in particular the challenge of global warming, which Hagel’s Pentagon has made a priority, declaring it a national-security threat, even as Hagel’s own Republican Party continues to block broader steps..
    Buckle your seatbelts.

  84. Something to consider. If nothing else, at least FYI.
    This can work both ways for Climate Scientists, skeptical or believer.

    Breaking news and analysis from the world of science policy

    Researcher files lawsuit over anonymous PubPeer comments
    By Kelly Servick 26 October 2014 9:45 pm
    Kelly is a staff writer at Science.

    By Kelly Servick 26 October 2014 9:45 pm

    The scientist who claimed that comments on the post-publication peer-review website PubPeer caused him to lose a job offer has now filed suit against the anonymous posters and has subpoenaed the website’s operators in a bid to obtain their identities.

    In September, PubPeer’s anonymous moderators revealed that Fazlul Sarkar, a cancer researcher at Wayne State University in Detroit, Michigan, had threatened legal action after the University of Mississippi rescinded its offer of a tenured, $350,000-per-year position. Sarkar, who remains employed at Wayne State, claimed that anonymous comments suggesting misconduct in his research caused the university to revoke its offer.

    This weekend, PubPeer moderators announced in a comment thread that Sarkar has filed a libel suit in a Wayne County circuit court against several “John Does” behind the comments he considers defamatory. And although he is not suing PubPeer directly, Sarkar has filed a subpoena asking the site’s moderators to turn over “all identifying information” about the posters by 10 November. As a Retraction Watch post on the suit explains, shield laws in many states would likely have protected PubPeer from being forced to turn over whatever information it has about the commenters, but Michigan’s shield law applies only to grand jury and criminal cases, not civil cases like this one.

    In an associated complaint letter, Sarkar’s lawyer, Nicholas Roumel of Nacht, Roumel, Salvatore, Blanchard & Walker, P.C. in Ann Arbor, Michigan, details the specific comments he considers defamatory. He also quotes a 19 June letter from Larry Walker, the director of the National Center for Natural Products Research at the University of Mississippi Cancer Institute, where Sarkar was to hold an appointment. In the letter, Walker cites the PubPeer comments as the reason for reversing the university’s job offer, explaining that “to move forward would jeopardize our research enterprise and my own credibility.”

    PubPeer moderators previously told ScienceInsider in an e-mail that they intend to protect their users’ identities, and lawyers at the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) in New York City have offered to help the defend PubPeer against a subpoena. The moderators have not yet announced how they plan to respond.

  85. Following comments by Bob Tisdale on the UNISYS SST anomalies map – having to do with the color scale shown at the bottom, I too sent a email to unisys weather about 12 days ago – and now look what just appeared on the UNISYS site :

    Posted on 2014/10/22 at 3:28 PM UTC

    Unisys Weather has been receiving reports of incorrect maps of the daily SST contours. The data used to make the maps are the official NOAA RTG-SST and anomaly grids, being pulled directly from the NOAA NWSTG.

    We have found an issue with the color scale of the mapping, and this has caused some users to misinterpret the maps. The color scale being used by WXP is wrapping, causing the same color to appear at very low and very high ends of the color table. The color table is also stretched beyond the actual values in the SST anomaly plot. We are working to correct the color table and color bar issue.

    Nice to also see the introduction of a light greay area around zero too !

  86. Today’s California Water News carries a grab-bag of articles. First is an article about bird deaths at the solar power facility in Blythe.

    “Dozens of birds died at a large-scale solar energy plant west of Blythe earlier this month in an accident that could have been prevented had safety netting been replaced after a storm, officials said.”
    “Johnson, deputy director of the energy commission, said the birds appeared to have been killed by a toxic, heat-transfer fluid that somehow got into ponds.”

    Second, linked through an article about suspected medical radioactive waste (I-131) in sanitary sewer discharge, is an article about ocean acidity causing skittish fish.

    “Ocean acidification is a growing problem that scientists are scrambling to understand.

    “It occurs when carbon dioxide absorbed into the ocean mixes with sea water to create carbonic acid. This substance reduces the pH-balance of the surrounding waters making them more corrosive.

    “A new study from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography found that such ocean acidification may be making some fish extremely anxious.”

    The fish anxiety article includes a link to yet another ocean acidification article:

    Which in turn leads to the dissolving pteropods covered previously on WUWT:

    The WUWT coverage is here:

  87. Well the ballots are out for the AAAS membership. For Section W : Atmospheric and Hydrospheric Sciences the candidates for Chairman are Don Wuebbles and Jack Kaye. The former lists the “Nobel Peace Prize (shared with IPCC) 2007″ in his credentials, but the latter is on the US Global Change Research Project. So pretty much a choice between the lesser of two evils.
    For Nominating Committee the ones to NOT vote for are Howard Joe Witte of George Mason Univ’s Climate Communication Committee and Chris E. Forest who is an Associate Prof of Climate Dynamics at Penn State. Both members in good standing of The Team.

  88. Re : UNISYS SST anomalies : you must click on ( from home page ) –> Analysis –> SST ( scroll down ) — SST_anomily_new upper RH ..

    Otherwise, for the time being you will still see the old SST plot – with crap color bar on bottom.

  89. For some reason the WUWT website really boosts the energy usage on my MacBook Air (enough to trigger the fan). It is just about double or triple the energy drain from youtube the next biggest drain and it is the only thing that has ever caused the fan to come on.

  90. those crazy religious CAGW deniers! this goes on and on and on…

    29 Oct: Bloomberg: Get Off the Beach? Hell No. Why Shore People Don’t Get Climate People
    By Flavia Krause-Jackson and Fred Pals
    When Hurricane Sandy came, Deborah Star Reed stayed home…
    So, on Oct. 29, 2012, the retired construction worker was munching on spare ribs with a friend, having ignored the evacuation warnings, when the first wave crashed into her home at the edge of New York’s Jamaica Bay. Hours later, hip-deep in water next to a bobbing piano, she began to pray.
    Reed is still relying on the power of hope over experience. Science says she’s fighting in vain against the encroaching ocean. Instead of leaving, the 63-year-old has renovated the interior, rebuilding the kitchen, and erected four bulkheads by her pier and a concrete wall along the water.
    “Sandy was something exceptional, some crazy Frankenstein,” she said from her deck with a view of Manhattan’s skyline. “I think we use climate change as a way of saying to people they should leave. I know I am protected.”
    Reed’s resistance is borne out by academic studies that say it’s human nature to quickly normalize abnormal weather events…

  91. ***ebola, cagw & overpopulation – hitting the trifecta!

    29 Oct: National Science Foundation: Award Abstract #1460714
    RAPID Proposal: Psychological distance, risk perceptions and communication behaviors during the Ebola outbreak
    Awarded amount to date: $84,110.00
    Investigator(s): Z. Janet Yang (Principal Investigator)
    Sponsor: SUNY at Buffalo
    *** Abstract: In addition to the issue-specific value of knowing more about risk perceptions related to the Ebola outbreak, findings from this project will inform the design of communication messages related to risk issues that are often perceived to be psychologically distant by the American public, such as climate change and overpopulation…

  92. Australians are not particularly litigious by nature, but the CAGW divestment activists could find themselves in court one day. useful info for those in other countries where pension/retirement funds, etc are coming under CAGW pressure:

    31 Oct: BusinessSpectator: Robert Gottliebsen: The class action risk for super funds dumping resources
    Trustees of big superannuation funds like the Australian National University are taking considerable personal risk if they divest fossil fuel resource stocks as a result of their personal environmental beliefs.
    There are people already making preliminary preparations for such actions against trustees should members of the funds suffer. Those actions are being considered on a national interest basis but of course, will be years away.
    And while I am not normally in favour of such actions, big superannuation funds are there for member benefit, not to invest on the basis of the personal beliefs of the trustees.The trustees of superannuation funds have a fiduciary duty to maximise returns for members. That does not mean that they have to always make the right investment decisions, but all decisions have to be taken in good faith for the benefit of members…
    If the trustees assembled a large amount of research which showed that fossil fuel stocks were likely to perform worse than other shares, then the trustees would be on stronger ground.
    But all the indications are that the latest decisions reflect either the personal environmental beliefs of the trustees or that those trustees feel they are under pressure from people who have certain beliefs…

  93. This is from the Department of You Just Can’t Make This Stuff Up. Reporter Madeleine Thomas (no relation), writing for Grist, has described how climate scientists are driving themselves into depressed states over their climate forecasts. One solution she suggests is that relieve their incredible stress by shouting out “F—k!” and other dirty words*. Her piece can’t really be satirised so I’ll give it to you straight.

    The heading is, “Climate depression is for real. Just ask a scientist“.

    The piece instances Professor Camille Parmesan at the University of Texas , who became so “professionally depressed” that she questioned abandoning her research in climate change entirely. But she soothed her anxiety by shifting from the US to the UK, where the grant money was easier to get.

    The reporter emphasised Parmesan’s tragedy by noting that the distraught professor “shared a Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore in 2007. Sorry, Madeleine, she didn’t.

  94. Might be worth another brief post on Patrick Moore’s visit to Australia and include a link to one of his presentations in Sydney. It was extremely well received and covered many of the climate misrepresentations which we need to counter. I know you have previously covered his tour but a follow up would be helpful for his remaining dates dates:


    31st October 2014
    6.00pm for drinks, 7.00pm speaker
    Upstairs at the Astor Theatre, Corner of Beaufort Street and Walcott Street, Mt Lawley
    Ticket only event: RSVP to by 27th October 2014
    Hosted by the Liberal Party of Australia (WA Division)
    1st November 2014
    C3 Church, 94 Waratah Avenue, Dalkeith

    1st meeting 4 – 5pm (GM crops)
    2nd meeting 5:30 – 7pm (Climate)
    A $20 donation ($10 for students) is requested to cover costs – covers both sessions.


    3rd November 2014
    12 noon – 3:00pm
    2-course luncheon with beverages $90 p.p. at Wrest Point, Hobart. For details email:


    5th November 2014
    7 for 7:30, Irish Club 175 Elizabeth Street
    A $20 donation at the door is requested to cover costs.


    6th November 2014
    5 for 5:30 at The J, 60 Noosa Drive, Noosa Heads
    To book for this event, just click on this link
    A $20 donation will buy a ticket.

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