Tips & Notes

Tips & Notes to WUWT

Cleaned 10/18/14

1. Be sure to check the front page of WUWT first, we often get duplicate tips here of stories already posted, sometimes days later.

2. Please remember this is not a discussion thread. Tips, notes, and links only please.

3. To put links in comments. simply copy the entire link URL and paste it into the comment. No need for code.

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965 thoughts on “Tips & Notes

    • POSSIBLE minor Interstellar SPOILER!!

      I went and saw Interstellar yesterday and while viewing it, it struck me that the movie has a very harsch message to climate alaramist. The message is broadly:

      1. That we cannot save the planet
      2. That the environmentalists who are trying to save the planet are equal to people who believe the moon landings were a hoax
      3. That Dr, Mann, which is one of the astronauts who was send ahead to one of the planets beyond the workmhole in advance, was sending back false data to NASA (who describes him as one of their leading scienists) to benefit his own agenda of getting saved.
      4. That Cooper, who disagrees with the environmentalist government, is a dedicated empiralistic scientist (engineer) is the hero of the movie.

      Could Chris Nolan by chance make a movie about an Earth which is rapidly becoming inhospitable to humans which includes a NASA pioneer in the science field, Dr. Mann, who sends fake data back to NASA, to save himself rahter than humanity and a goverment that actually tells our hero that he should focus more on sustainability than on pioneering AND that they believe that the moon landing were faked…?

      I think we hvae just witnessed that Chris Nolan is indeed a sceptic :)

      • Was going to post the same thing. Almost too ironic to believe. Can’t believe the Hollywood PC crowd let this get past them. Dr. Mann from NASA tricks humanity into trying to repopulate an icy hell. Fakes the data. Truth is stranger than fiction indeed.

    • I’m not sure if this is how to leave a tip, so here goes:

      CNN just posted a story “Obama’s China climate deal: Job killer or worth the cost?” at

      In the article, by Chris Isidore, the EPA supposedly stated that failure to address “climate change” would cost the US economy about $150 Billion Dollars per year, and the story cited the examples of Hurricane Katrina in 2005 ($157 Billion) and Superstorm Sandy in 2012 ($50 Billion).

      I’m not a climate scientist, but I thought that neither Katrina nor Sandy were the products of anthropogenic “global warming”, and that the term “climate change” is so amorphous that anything can be considered to be a changing climate, since the climate has always been changing, and has done so for millions of years.
      The real question is have these changes been caused my man, and if so, how exactly?

      Perhaps Anthony could address the contentions in this article, and maybe the entire US-China Climate Agreement, where China is given a pass until the year 2030. Hmmmm ….

      • Correct. Notice that hurricanes have been very sparse lately. Climate has changes some without our help, and all change is not negative. Even more CO2, no matter the source, makes for markedly greater crop yields.

  1. 17 Oct: The Conversation: Climate ‘uncertainty’ is no excuse for climate inaction
    by Richard Pancost & Stephan Lewandowsky
    Former environment minister Owen Paterson has called for the UK to scrap its climate change targets…
    Uncertainty is not the same as ignorance
    This argument is incorrect – uncertainty does not imply ignorance. Indeed, whatever we don’t know mandates caution. No parent would argue
    “I accept that if my child kicks lions, this will irritate them, but a range of factors will dictate how the lions respond; therefore I will not stop my child from kicking lions.”
    The deeper the uncertainty, the more greenhouse gas emissions should be perceived as a wild and poorly understood gamble. By extension, the only unequivocal tool for minimising climate change uncertainty is to decrease our greenhouse gas emissions.

    • This reminded me of one of my favorite jokes.

      What is the difference between ignorance and apothy? Answer- I don’t know and I don’t care.

  2. a bit of a laugh!

    PIC: 18 Oct: SaintPetersBlog: Phil Amman: Email Insights: NextGen Climate dresses up for Halloween
    You know Halloween is near, when the newest email from NextGen Climate shows fans dressed in silly costumes to blast Rick Scott.
    Florida’s governor needs to stop his “Stone Age agenda” on climate change, the email says. It comes complete with a photo of supporters dressed as both science teachers (white coats and all) and cave dwellers carrying clubs and dressed in faux animal skins.
    NextGen Climate Florida is the environmental PAC founded by investor and philanthropist Tom Steyer, which is targeting Scott as one of the state office-bearers denying humanity’s role in climate change…READ ON

  3. 18 Oct: UK Telegraph: Christopher Booker: Ed Miliband and Baroness Worthington, the most expensive man and woman in Britain’s history
    The Climate Change Act could cost the UK £1.3 trillion over the next 36 years
    Less well known, however, is the extraordinary story of how this most expensive Act ever put on the statute book originated in the first place…
    The Bill passed the Commons by 463 votes to three, after a debate in which not a single MP asked how such an ambitious target could in practice be achieved without destroying virtually our entire economy…
    But this is what at last one senior politician, Owen Paterson, dared to question in his lecture last week to the Global Warming Policy Foundation…
    There was, of course, a knee-jerk howl of derision from the likes of Lord Stern and Lord Deben, along with a blizzard of personal abuse across the Twittersphere. But the more thoughtful among them, such as the BBC’s Roger Harrabin, tried instead to ride with the punch, by claiming that Decc was already looking at all the parts of Paterson’s “Plan B” for keeping our lights on….READ ON

    as nuclear is part of Paterson’s plan, best to mention:

    18 Oct: UK Daily Mail: Hugo Duncan: Fears of winter blackouts as repairs to mend boiler cracks shut EDF nuclear plants for two years
    Work to prevent high temperatures causing further cracks at ageing plants
    Move will lead to increase in the risk of power shortages this winter and next
    The nuclear power reactors have been in operation since the early 1980s
    Two of Britain’s nuclear power plants closed in August over safety issues will not be fully up and running for another two years – triggering fears of blackouts this winter…

  4. Yet another look-a-squirrel paper. In Science online last week a paper title “Increased variability of tornado occurrence in the United States,” by Harold E. Brooks, Gregory W. Carbin, Patrick T. Marsh. It is found at The abstract is “Whether or not climate change has had an impact on the occurrence of tornadoes in the United States has become a question of high public and scientific interest, but changes in how tornadoes are reported have made it difficult to answer it convincingly. We show that, excluding the weakest tornadoes, the mean annual number of tornadoes has remained relatively constant, but their variability of occurrence has increased since the 1970s. This is due to a decrease in the number of days per year with tornadoes combined with an increase in days with many tornadoes, leading to greater variability on annual and monthly time scales and changes in the timing of the start of the tornado season.” I looked at the paper and the SI and I suspect the key is in their words “changes in how tornadoes are reported.” I have looked at the tornado data in the past and I would be very surprised if the reported “increased variability” is anything more than misguided statistics failing to reflect changes in the underlying sample/reporting procedure. Sadly, I am tiring of reviewing the seemingly endless stream of look-a-squirrel papers coming out now that hard empirical data increasingly does not support the AGW hypothesis. Perhaps someone who still has intellectual energy to spare for these climate squirrels would want to look at the underpinnings of this paper. It is already being seized upon in the warmista press.

  5. Research ecologist Nathan Stephenson crawled around magnificent Giant Forest, checking young giant sequoias for damage from California’s three-year drought.

    Instead of stressed-out plants, he found young trees that looked pretty happy, he said. But at some point, he glanced upward and saw something startling.

    “The foliage had died back on a much larger sequoia above me,” said Stephenson, a sequoia authority who works for the U.S. Geological Survey. “It’s not happening to all of them, but there is a subset of bigger trees showing stress. It makes sense, but it surprised me a little.”

    The brown needles on a 3,000-year-old tree are a smart response to drought, Stephenson said. The trees dump their old foliage when they get drought-stressed and focus on new growth.

    But the bigger takeaway: Nature may hold a few surprises as the climate warms this century for giant sequoias and other plants and animals. California’s intense drought is giving scientists a valuable sneak peek.

    Read more here:


    Why is China going to reduce carbon fuel burning because of a threat of a 2 degree temperature rise in 80 years when they already have this situation in their country? They know the urgency of reducing carbon fuel burning, lives are being shortened now because of it. But when you try to focus the issue on global warming then when the data comes in showing the warming isn’t as bad as predicted you get a reaction of “Well I guess its not as bad as they said, there is no need to shift off of carbon fuels, so lets keep burning away!” Obviously the economy of any country can’t handle a drastic, forced conversion off of carbon fuels, and that must be a consideration when setting a course for switching to cleaner energy, but I think the focus on AGW reduces the urgency to reduce carbon fuel consumption when the focus should be on pollution.

  7. There has been a major fire tonight at Didcot B power station in the UK – this plant provides around 3% of the country’s electricity.

    In addition, an abnormal amount of the UK’s nuclear power stations are currently down for maintenance or repair.

    A cold winter will bring widespread black outs in the UK and with it the long overdue realisation by the lumpen proletariat that an energy policy reliant on intermittent, unreliable, expensive wind power is totally insane.

    This is a breaking news story, so no quotes.

  8. It seems to me that many people involved with climate alarmism are using climate change as a tool to bring about a fundamental change to the world. One of these changes that I believe some want is some form of Marxism. I have been unable to figure out how anyone could come to the conclusion that Marxism/communism would work very well. During my search of the internet to see how it was supposed to work in the USSR, I found it surprising that Karl Marx thought that a free press was essential for his ideas of utopia to work.

    I think that many in the main stream media (MSM) are determined to bring about that utopia by controlling the press by limiting or trying to prevent information that counters the CAGW agenda.

    The following is copied from the following URL:

    “Marx would not accept any form of censorship in any circumstances, for it is ‘a precautionary measure taken by the police against freedom… and a bad police measure at that’.

    Where there is no freedom of the press, he wrote – and to this also Soviet reality bears witness:

    … the government hears only its own voice; it knows that it hears only its own voice and thus establishes itself in the illusion of hearing the voice of the nation, and demands from the people that they share the same illusion.

    And where can a better description – which is also an indictment of the Soviet press – be found than in this passage by Marx:

    Boasting every day of everything created through the will of the government… [this] press is constantly lying, since one day necessarily contradicts the other. And it reaches the point of not even being aware of its lies and losing all shame.”

    Could this be what has happened to Mann, Hanson and all of his sort?

    Jim Francisco

  9. VIDEO: 20 Oct: NoTricksZone: Amazing…AP Reporter Seth Borenstein Emphasizing Value Of “New Catch Phrases” To Hype Up Climate Stories!
    By P Gosselin
    For the media, at least for the AP’s Seth Borenstein, it’s not about presenting the science in a professional and balanced manner, rather it’s all about sensationalizing it and getting the editor to print it. The good stuff starts at about the 7:30 mark…

  10. unfortunately, this article is being picked up online, not only by CAGW websites, but by some alt websites that are sceptical of CAGW. when it’s promising a renewable future that “would cost the average household only about 18 cents per month”, i guess it’s tempting to believe:

    19 Oct: CleanTechnica: Roy L. Hales: America Can Nearly Quadruple Its Renewable Electricity By 2030
    A recent Union of Concerned Scientists (USC) study found that America can nearly quadruple its renewable electricity in the next 15 years, reaching 23% by 2030. This comes in response to the Environmental Protection Agency’s proposal that America set a modest goal of 12% renewable energy by 2030. Rachel Cleetus, Senior Climate Economist of UCS, referred to the EPA’s goal as just a fraction above “business as usual.” The UCS found raising this target, to +23% of the nation’s electricity from non-hydro renewable sources by 2030, would cost the average household only about 18 cents per month. Cleetus described this as a realistic and affordable goal: “Looking at the way renewable energy is ramping up and costs are falling dramatically, there is a real opportunity to go farther.”…

  11. Quadrant magazine has an article by Tony Thomas titled, “Shooting Santa to Save the World.”

    It’s about a graphic novel, “Climate Changed” by Philippe Squarzoni. In this novel a woman armed with an automatic rifle goes to a shopping mall and murders three department store Santas for the sake of “energy issues,” read AGW. Squarzoni himself is her fictional lover.

    The novel is apparently fulsomely praised by Jean Jouzel, a high-level IPCC scientist. Jouzel apparently also appears in the novel, holding forth on the scientific truth of it all.

    I see this sort of thing as a literary rehearsal for the real thing. It’s is an inducement to political murder, no more no less. Some AGW skeptic will be the likely victim. If that happens, I’ve no doubt but that this and/or similar literature will be found to have provided the impetus.

    If that ever happens, it will be as much on Jouzel’s head as on Squarzoni’s.

    The front cover of the book, by the way, touts Jouzel as, “IPCC vice-chair, co-recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize.”

  12. ???

    21 Oct: SMH: Peter Hannam: Pacific warms towards El Nino levels as Australia heats up
    Ocean temperatures are again warming in the Pacific, helping to drive global temperatures to new highs and also leaving conditions primed for an El Nino event to be declared in coming months.
    The Bureau of Meteorology said sea surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific had warmed closer to El Nino-threshold levels in the past fortnight.
    “They’re at the warmest levels they’ve been since the build-up [for an El Nino] started in March,” Andrew Watkins, manager of climate prediction services, told Fairfax Media.However, meteorologists are yet to see the signature elements of such an event, such as a sustained stalling or reversal of the east-west trade winds, Dr Watkins said.
    One reason why the atmosphere to yet to “couple” with the oceans and reinforce conditions needed for an El Nino to develop is that sea surface temperatures also remain warmer than usual in the western Pacific, he said. Without that temperarure gradient, winds won’t reverse…
    Australia is already experiencing unusually warm temperatures and rainfall deficiencies typical for an El Nino year. Clear night skies in inland areas are also leading to frost – another symptom, Dr Watkins said…
    A huge pool of heat will settle over much of South Australia, Northern Territory and Queensland with maximums of 42 degrees or more for Sunday and Monday…
    The fact 2014 may challenge for the hottest year even with at most a weak El Nino is one reason climatologists warn action must be taken to curb the rise of greenhouse gas emissions that trap ever more heat from the sun.
    The bureau’s Dr Watkins said heat records could be broken even without a “full-blown El Nino” because of the planet’s broadscale warming. Sea-surface temperatures in the central Pacific, for instance, had increased by about 0.5 degrees since the 1950s.

  13. 21 Oct: Guardian: Adam Vaughan: Divest MPs’ pension fund from fossil fuels, says Caroline Lucas
    Green party MP calls on parliament to pull money out of gas, coal and oil investments
    MPs should follow in the footsteps of the Rockeller family, Glasgow University and churches around the world by pulling their pension fund investments out of fossil fuels, according to Caroline Lucas.
    The Green party MP says the £487m Parliamentary Contributory Pension Fund should join the movement of hundreds of institutions worldwide who have already divested $50bn (£31bn) from gas, coal and oil investments as a way of tackling climate change. A University of Oxford study says the campaign has grown faster than any previous divestment movements, including those on apartheid and tobacco.
    Lucas has written to Brian Donohoe, the chairman of the fund’s trustees board, telling him that she is particularly concerned that the fund is contributing to global warming and of the economic risk to such assets if governments put in place “effective climate regulation”…
    Lucas said the divestment campaign had benefited from comments by the governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, who said earlier this month that the “vast majority of reserves are unburnable.”…
    Donohoe, a Labour MP for Central Ayrshire, said he did not think fossil fuels were an investment the fund should avoid, or pull out of.
    “We’ve got to balance what individuals like she [Lucas] will say about certain investments… [with] the good of the fund…
    He added that his personal view was that Lucas was a lone voice on the issue. “I don’t know what she’s talking about frankly. If she’s talking about stopping taking coal out of the earth, that would have to be universally applied, there’d be a closure to all coal-fired power stations. That would have quite a significant impact on Soctland and perhaps elsewhere. I don’t know where she’s coming from on this one.”…

  14. Anthony, This is Crushing to the Hockey Stick and that past warm periods did not occur. Them finding this stuff lately only means one thing, the climate was as warm now as then.

    Found 1300-Year-Old Ski and 6000-Year-Old Arrows in Reinheimen

    Post Name
    Mann’s Hockey Stick takes crushing blow from the Ski Stick
    We should name this period 1,300 years ago the Ski Stick Period.

  15. Sadly, there is no transcript that I know of, but here’s the alarmists at it again, morphing the story again as necessary to keep the hype up:

    The first seven minutes feature John Allis of the US Army Corps of Engineers to talk about the recent record rises in Great Lakes water levels (in direct contrast to last years dire predictions of continued water loss in the Great Lakes) with the moderator/interviewer trying desperately to get him to say that we were going into continued rise and how scary that is and John Allis repeatedly swaying: well – we try to predict 6 months out, and in the 4-6 month time frame our predictions are already pretty sketchy so I’m not willing to make any statements at all further out.

    For the last 10 minutes, after bidding farewell to John Allis, Michael Murray of the National Wildlife Federation is brought to opine on all the doom and gloom scenarios that rising water levels will bring on: increased erosion, increased algal blooms, endangered drinking water, dogs and cats living together – you get the idea.

    It’s a pretty disgusting example of tabloid journalism finding ways to make rising water levels in the Great Lakes as much of a boogey man as possible until the trend, inevitably, reverses and they can start screaming global climate change and droughts again.

  16. The major sunspot now rotating around to face earth is by far the largest sunspot since at least 2003 and possesses highly unstable magnetic fields. In other words, this one could produce a monster X10+ class solar flare at any time with possible major coronal mass ejections. Given that there is some evidence that extreme flares tend to happen later in solar cycles (e.g., the Carrington event was late in a weak solar cycle), this deserves a news blurb to watch if notching else.

    • “This behemoth active region is 125,000 km wide, almost as big as the planet Jupiter. These dimensions make it an easy target for backyard solar telescopes–hence so many pictures in the realtime photo gallery.”

      “A few days ago, AR2192 unleashed an X1-class solar flare. Since then the sunspot has almost doubled in size and developed an increasingly unstable ‘beta-gamma-delta’ magnetic field. It would seem to be just a matter of time before another strong explosion occurs. NOAA forecasters estimate at 60% chance of M-class flares and a 20% chance of X-flares on Oct. 21st.”

  17. From a comment on one of Huff Puff’s climate scary stories:

    ‘If it gets much warmer, we will all freeze to death’

  18. Hi Antony ,
    I’m sure your readers will LOVE this SKY News Part 2 Richo and Jones ripping apart a climate alarmist .
    Brought tears to my eyes that this could ever get done on mainstream media ,

    Cheers and thanks so much for your good work

  19. climate saviour Obama not to blame:

    21 Oct: Guardian: Suzanne Goldenberg: US greenhouse gas emissions rise despite Obama’s new climate change push
    Federal agency finds that emissions increased during 2014 polar vortex, raising questions about US’s targeted 2020 cuts
    America’s energy-related carbon pollution rose 2.5% last year despite President Barack Obama’s efforts to fight climate change, according to new federal data.
    The rise in emissions from burning coal, oil, natural gas and other fossil fuels was one of the steepest on record in the last 25 years, according to the Energy Information Administration’s Monthly Energy Review…
    The chill Arctic temperatures of last year’s polar vortex can shoulder much of the blame…
    The data also showed a 4.8% increase in the use of energy from coal, and a 10% fall in energy from natural gas…

  20. ???

    21 Oct: CarbonBrief: Robert McSweeney: Worst case scenarios of sea level rise, and why scientists and policymakers consider them
    Sea levels could rise by a maximum of 190 centimetres by the end of the century, according to a new study, which examines a worst case scenario for sea level rise.
    In reality, the amount of sea level rise we get is likely to be less than that. But scientists and policymakers examine such ‘worst case’ scenarios to safeguard against climate risks…
    The new study, published in Environmental Research Letters, considers the assessment of 13 ice sheet experts. They conclude that the contribution from ice sheets is likely to be greater than projected by the IPCC…

  21. ‘Remember Montini’s words: “It is the idea that leads man, that generates man’s strength. A man without an idea is a man without personality.” Be able to combine the primacy of reality with the force of ideas that you have researched. Your task is to assume this challenge with the creativity of young people and the gratuitous and free dedication of university study!’

    Papal address concerning the need to search for truth.
    No mention of specifics but an insight into his idea of the scientific method uncovering reality.
    He is a chemist.

    In this context the ‘primacy of reality’ in some cases has been divorced from the ‘force of ideas’,when one considers the prominent AGW modelling paradigm.

  22. 2005 JPA Ioannidis published: Why Most Published Research Findings Are False
    Now he advocates changes:
    How to Make Scientists Publish the Truth

    Source: Ioannidis JPA (2014). “How to Make More Published Research True.” PLoS Med 11(10): e1001747. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001747

    Summary Points
    Currently, many published research findings are b><false or exaggerated, and an estimated 85% of research resources are wasted.
    To make more published research true, practices that have improved credibility and efficiency in specific fields may be transplanted to others which would benefit from them—possibilities include the adoption of large-scale collaborative research; replication culture; registration; sharing; reproducibility practices; better statistical methods; standardization of definitions and analyses; more appropriate (usually more stringent) statistical thresholds; and improvement in study design standards, peer review, reporting and dissemination of research, and training of the scientific workforce.
    Selection of interventions to improve research practices requires rigorous examination and experimental testing whenever feasible.
    Optimal interventions need to understand and harness the motives of various stakeholders who operate in scientific research and who differ on the extent to which they are interested in promoting publishable, fundable, translatable, or profitable results.
    Modifications need to be made in the reward system for science, affecting the exchange rates for currencies (e.g., publications and grants) and purchased academic goods (e.g., promotion and other academic or administrative power) and introducing currencies that are better aligned with translatable and reproducible research.

    Also applicable to Climate Science

  23. Finally some scientists have “discovered” that plants CAN cope with and adapt to climate change. They “subjected natural ecosystems to an experimental drought over the course of nine years, simulating predicted future climate scenarios. In the course of their experiment, conducted in four different ecosystems ranging from desert (3.5 inches of annual rainfall) to moist Mediterranean woodland (30.7 inches of annual rainfall), the researchers found that, contrary to predictions, no measurable changes in annual vegetation could be seen.”

    Press release at:

    Full paper at:

  24. Now, here’s an oddity:
    NOAA employee charged with stealing U.S. dam information
    Chen was accused of accessing restricted areas of the National Inventory of Dams on various days in May 2012 and downloading sensitive files and providing false information to investigators in June 2013, prosecutors said.
    The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the National Dam Safety Review Board maintain the database, which consists of dams meeting certain hazard or height criteria.


  25. Storms coming to WA & OR:

    Recently the CPC was expecting a drier than average period for WA & OR but I can’t find the old report. They seem to have a new one up that reflects the current weather now approaching the Cascade Mountains. The Olympics may get 5 inches tonight (Tues., 21st) and generally it will be wet, breezy, and cooling. Some flooding. Similar continues.

    The monthly drought outlook released 9/30 for October still shows OR & WA to become drier.

    I have a screen capture.

  26. Abraham’s insults come thick & fast:

    22 Oct: Guardian: John Abraham: Another global warming contrarian paper found to be unrealistic and inaccurate
    Abraham et al. show that a paper by ‘sceptics’ Spencer & Braswell is rife with unrealistic assumptions in an overly simple model
    It’s hard to find a reputable scientist who denies that human emissions of greenhouse gases are warming the planet and that there will be consequences for human society and the biological health of the planet. There are a few holdouts who, for various reasons, either think humans are not causing warming or that the warming will not have much consequence.
    Some members of this vocal minority spend a lot of time trying to convince the public that they are right…
    Well, again this year, I’ve wasted my time (and my colleagues’ time) by rebutting a 2014 paper published by the darling of the Dwindling Few, Roy Spencer…
    Before we get into the errors, let’s talk about what their model does…

  27. 21 Oct: The Blaze: Erica Ritz: PayPal Co-Founder Is Skeptical of Man-Made Global Warming for This Reason
    PayPal co-founder Peter Thiel, often considered one of the most influential people in Silicon Valley, said Tuesday that he is skeptical of man-made global warming because many refuse to allow debate the subject.
    “Whenever you can’t have a debate, I often think that’s evidence that there’s a problem,” Thiel said on The Glenn Beck Program. “When people use the word ‘science,’ it’s often a tell, like in poker, that you’re bluffing. It’s like we have ‘social science’ and we have ‘political science,’ [but] we don’t call it ‘physical science’ or ‘chemical science.’ We just call them physics and chemistry because we know they’re right.”…
    “The weather has not been getting warmer for the last 15 years. The hockey stick that Al Gore predicted in the early 2000s on the climate has not happened,” he remarked. “And I think as this monolithic culture breaks down, you can have more debates.”…

  28. 19 Oct: Boston Globe: Latif Nasser: When island nations drown, who owns their seas?
    As climate change jeopardizes the huge ocean claims of tiny nations, experts propose some bold legal solutions
    Over the past several years, it’s become clear that one of the starkest potential effects of climate change is the existential threat that rising oceans pose to the world’s low-lying island nations…
    A set of legal scholars from around the world has started to propose new ways to conceive of these ocean rights, so that if and when the islanders are forced to move, their economic domains might still survive as a national asset…
    Several, including UC Berkeley School of Law’s David Caron, have observed that changing sea boundaries aren’t just a problem for islands: The rising ocean promises to redraw every coastline on the map. Instead of constantly updating maps every time a beach is submerged, they suggest, why not freeze the boundaries in place? For low-lying islands, this would mean that the sea as currently measured around Kiribati would become the permanent patrimony of its people—and wherever in exile they end up, the population would continue to receive royalties from its former coastal waters…
    Rosemary Rayfuse of the University of New South Wales in Australia takes a different route to a similar outcome. “An equitable and fair solution,” she writes in a 2013 anthology documenting a Columbia University conference on Threatened Island Nations, “would be the recognition in international law of a new category of State, ‘the deterritorialized state.’”…
    , such a landless state does exist today. The Knights of Malta (not to be confused with the country of Malta) are a 900-year-old lay Catholic order who today have no land, but do have a nonvoting seat at the United Nations…

  29. Possibly one of the scariest articles I have ever seen on the UK energy outlook, a mixture of complacency and outright lies.

    1. The BBC is very excited, as one might expect from a flagship ecoloon organisation, that yesterday the UK (one of the windiest days this year) saw wind power generation for the first time overtake nuclear power (8 out of 15 of the UK’s nuclear generation plants are currently down.).

    2. A government spokesman from Planet Zarg said a “diverse energy mix” was essential to the UK’s energy security.

    “We’re preventing a predicted energy crunch by turning round a legacy of underinvestment and neglect.

    3. But Jennifer Webber, a Planet Zarg spokeswoman for RenewableUK, the trade body, said: “Wind power is often used as a convenient whipping boy by political opponents and vested interests.

    “All the while, it’s been quietly powering millions of homes across the UK and providing a robust response to its vocal detractors.”

    If you believe either of these two last statements, I have a very nice British bridge I can sell you. There is virtually no investment in UK energy, other than in intermittent, unreliable, expensive wind power and the spokesperson for RenewableUK quietly ignores the fact that wind power is generally 2-4 times more expensive than conventional fossil fuel electricity generation – and that’s when it is working!

    When the inevitable high pressure system, with its negligible winds and extreme cold weather, sits over the UK this winter, it will be comforting to know for those dying from hypothermia that it was all for a good cause, namely that the smug British political ‘elite’ can be seen to have been green and ‘saving the planet’.

  30. Greenpeacer in CO advocates vote fraud to help Udall keep his Senate seat:

    Vote fraud in WA & OR have been rampant since we went to all mail-in voting. Workers in nursing homes & politically active college kids vote for those too old or apathetic to vote for themselves, for starters.

  31. Renewable energies are basically rebranded fossil fuels.
    1.5 hours, but the first half hour is worth watching.

    Ozzie Zehner – Green Illusions
    Webcast sponsored by the Irving K. Barber Learning Centre and hosted by the UBC Reads Sustainability Lecture Series. Ozzie Zehner is the author of Green Illusions and a visiting scholar at the University of California, Berkeley.
    Zehner primarily researches the social, political and economic conditions influencing energy policy priorities and project outcomes. His work also incorporates symbolic roles that energy technologies play within political and environmental movements. (edited for brevity)


    In case this doesn’t link the story is that the commissioners of South Miami, suburb of Miami, FL want the south half of Florida to secede from the union. Their thinking is that the southern half of Florida has climate change issues to which the northern part of the state is not exposed.

  33. (Michael Mann is coming to Los Angeles on October 23 — entrance is free. This text is from a mailing by the Center for Inquiry, a “skeptical” organization that is nevertheless completely sold on CAGW. — KDH)

    Climatologists To Discuss Global Warming Issues at Hammer Museum Thursday

    Climatologists Brenda Ekwurzel and Michael Mann will be speaking on “Tackling Climate Change Nationally and Globally” at 7:30 p.m. tomorrow in the Billy Wilder Theater at the Hammer Museum, 10899 Wilshire Boulevard in Los Angeles.

    Despite the overwhelming scientific consensus that global warming is a danger to the planet, little progress has been made to reduce CO2 emissions. Ekwurzel and Mann will examine the issue. Ekwurzel works with the Union of Concerned Scientists to increase support for strong climate legislation. Mann, who is a member of the National Center for Science Education’s Advisory Council, contributed to the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007, and is the author of The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars: Dispatches From The Front Lines and Dire Predictions: Understanding Global Warming.

    The event is free and open to the public, but seating is limited, and early arrival is recommended. For further information, visit:

  34. something to look forward to???

    22 Oct: Bloomberg: Alex Morales: Five Years, 2,000 Scientists and How Do You Wake People Up to Climate Change?
    The U.S. and European Union are pushing for a stronger explanation about the dangers of climate change and the consequences of failing to stem fossil-fuel emissions in the UN’s most extensive report on global warming.
    The appeals are detailed in a document putting together comments from more than 30 governments about the United Nations report, due to be published next month. The study is the culmination of five years of work by some 2,000 scientists.
    “This report is a story of what happens if we don’t act, and what can happen if we do,” U.S. negotiators wrote. “It should be an effective story.” The text, they said, “lacks a threading narrative.” …
    In one remark, the U.S. team said authors should strike more of a balance because “there are very few references to the vulnerability of wealthier countries to climate change.” …
    “What about drought? Cyclones? Wildfires? Policymakers care deeply about extreme events,” the U.S. team wrote…
    The comments were obtained from a person with official access to the study who asked not to be identified because the discussions are confidential…
    The final wording of that paper will be debated line by line at a meeting next week in Copenhagen…

  35. 22 Oct: UK Express: Jason Taylor: Climate change PROVED to be ‘nothing but a lie’, claims top meteorologist
    THE debate about climate change is finished – because it has been categorically proved NOT to exist, one of the world’s leading meteorologists has claimed.
    John Coleman, who co-founded the Weather Channel, shocked academics by insisting the theory of man-made climate change was no longer scientifically credible.
    Instead, what ‘little evidence’ there is for rising global temperatures points to a ‘natural phenomenon’ within a developing eco-system.
    In an open letter attacking the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, he wrote: “The ocean is not rising significantly.
    “The polar ice is increasing, not melting away. Polar Bears are increasing in number.
    “Heat waves have actually diminished, not increased. There is not an uptick in the number or strength of storms (in fact storms are diminishing).
    “I have studied this topic seriously for years. It has become a political and environment agenda item, but the science is not valid.”…
    President Obama told 120 world leaders at the United Nations climate summit last month that America had done more under his watch in cutting greenhouse gases than any other country.
    Despite this, the Energy Information Administration’s Monthly Energy Review showed an increase in the use of energy from coal…
    Climate expert William Happer, from Princeton University, supported Mr Coleman’s claims…

  36. What’s going on with Sea Surface Temperatures in the northern hemisphere?
    Is this UNISYS SST map showing correct temperature anomalies?

  37. Was addressing medical research, but applies to all fields

    How to Make More Published Research True by John P. A. Ioannidis mail

    Summary Points

    Currently, many published research findings are false or exaggerated, and an estimated 85% of research resources are wasted.
    To make more published research true, practices that have improved credibility and efficiency in specific fields may be transplanted to others which would benefit from them—possibilities include the adoption of large-scale collaborative research; replication culture; registration; sharing; reproducibility practices; better statistical methods; standardization of definitions and analyses; more appropriate (usually more stringent) statistical thresholds; and improvement in study design standards, peer review, reporting and dissemination of research, and training of the scientific workforce.
    Selection of interventions to improve research practices requires rigorous examination and experimental testing whenever feasible.
    Optimal interventions need to understand and harness the motives of various stakeholders who operate in scientific research and who differ on the extent to which they are interested in promoting publishable, fundable, translatable, or profitable results.
    Modifications need to be made in the reward system for science, affecting the exchange rates for currencies (e.g., publications and grants) and purchased academic goods (e.g., promotion and other academic or administrative power) and introducing currencies that are better aligned with translatable and reproducible research.

  38. Weather Service stops receiving satellite data, issues notice about forecast quality

    At 1 p.m. today, the National Weather Service’s National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) issued the following statement cautioning the outage could impact forecast quality:


    Check feeds through NCEP


    Link to an MIT report on how a European study is being touted as showing the “true” cost of energy sources by including environmental effects. There is an embedded link to the full report in this article. Thought it might generate some interesting discussion.

    • Should have mentioned how slanted this analysis is in favor of wind. Fossil fuel got dinged pretty heavy due to climate effects.

  40. Good day Anthony,

    The Northpole see-ice has reach Nova Zembla already!!, thats this century the most early date, in 2002 and 2006 it hapened a few days later, the rest of the years in this century it was half/end november! that the ice touched Nova Zembla for the first time.


  41. no doubt out to impress their beloved Obama – who they see as a fellow climate warrior – at the G20…but it backfires badly:

    24 Oct: SMH: Latika Bourke: Australian Youth Climate Coalition removes anti-coal poster after backlash
    Young climate activists have been accused of comparing coal miners to paedophiles in a poster that has since been taken down from the internet after a social media backlash.
    The Australian Youth Climate Coalition was considering posting the image on a billboard at Brisbane airport during next month’s G20 summit.
    It features a man’s coal-marked hands covering the mouth of a young frightened-looking girl with the slogan ‘Don’t Let the Coal Lobby Get their Dirty Hands On Our Future’.
    But social media users complained that the picture of a man’s blackened hands covering a young girl’s face looked “paedophilic”..
    “This is sick, AYCC is comparing paedophilia with hardworking coal mining Australians,” one pro-mining user tweeted…
    “Their latest effort to demonise the coal industry including the many hard working coal miners in my electorate is to compare them to the perpetrators of domestic violence or child abductors,” he said.
    “How low will the extreme green groups go?”

    meanwhile, in Obamaland, Wyoming coal is booming:

    23 Oct: Chicago Tribune: Bloomberg: Tim Loh: Coal miners fired in Appalachia getting hired in Wyoming
    It’s boom times in Wyoming for embattled U.S. coal companies, where the mining industry is hiring workers while shedding them in Appalachia…
    “It’s going to be running a good while in Wyoming, because of how much coal they put out,” said King, who expects to start work by next month. While he doesn’t know what he’ll be earning, a friend made the move a year ago and since then his base pay has increased to about $35 an hour from $25…
    Looking at one of the North Antelope pits, he points to a coal seam that’s 60 feet (18 meters) high, and runs north for more than 50 miles.
    “I don’t see the end of it,” he said. “It just continues to grow.”…
    The area is also home to oil and gas production, and about half of Gillette’s workers are in the energy industry or supporting fields, according to the local chamber of commerce…

  42. Anthony,
    Scientists have uncovered a cache of satellite images of Earth from the 1960s that had been forgotten in storage for nearly 50 years and that push back the first satellite images of our planet a full 17 years

    The trove includes the first publicly available satellite photos of Europe, the earliest aerial views of Antarctica’s ice, and a record of Central Asia’s Aral Sea before it dried up. There’s also a rare photo of the most powerful storm to hit North America in modern times.

  43. Hello Anthony,

    Today is exactly 9 years since the last major hurricane landfall in U.S. (Hurricane Wilma).

    A remarkable period of low hurricane activity.

    Many thanks for everything you do!

  44. “If you accept there is a problem in that the ordinary person doesn’t read far into any blog article once they perceive it as “sciency”, then the logical follow on thought is that such an article will never make an appearance in the mainstream media, which we should be aiming to be breaking into. If that isn’t where we want to be, then all the skeptic blogosphere is doing is intellectual incest.”


  45. 2014 study finds Sea Surface Temps and Sea Ice Cover “in the seas surrounding Greenland do not considerably impact” Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance (SMB)” as a result of the katabatic wind blocking effect. These offshore-directed winds prevent oceanic near-surface air, influenced by SIC and SST anomalies, from penetrating far inland. Therefore, the ice sheet SMB response is restricted to coastal regions, where katabatic winds cease.”

    “During recent summers (2007–2012), several surface melt records were broken over the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). The extreme summer melt resulted in part from a persistent negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), favoring warmer atmospheric conditions than normal over the GrIS.”

    Sensitivity of Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance to perturbations in sea surface temperature and sea ice cover: a study with the regional climate model MAR

  46. Anthony,
    Posting in case you’re unaware of this site and your Bio.

    Anthony Watts: Person DB Profile

    Its a pretty amazing News resource.

    About the Carbon Capture Report

    The Carbon Capture Report ( is a free and open service of the University of Illinois devoted to being the preeminent global resource for tracking worldwide perception and developments in Climate Change, Carbon Capture, Carbon Credits, Alternative Energy, Renewable Energy, Green Energy, Biofuels, Geothermal, Hydroelectric, Natural Gas, Nuclear, Solar, Wind, Coal, and Oil. With subscribers in more than 100 countries the Report has become the go-to resource for daily insight into the global media discourse.

    – See more at:

    Interactive Timeline
    Interactive Timeline lets you explore more than 45 indicators about a given topic and more than 15 about any person, organization, location, or news outlet. See the top stories, blog posts, and tweets of each day.
    – See more at:

    Geographic Intelligence
    Geographic Intelligence dives into the content of each story, identifies nuanced worldwide geographic mentions down to the remote hilltop, and delivers that insight overlaid onto Google Maps and Google Earth.
    – See more at:

    Advanced Analytics
    Advanced Analytics use a range of analyses and visualizations to help you make sense of the complex news cycle and gain critical insights into key trends.
    – See more at:

    Biography Databases
    Biography Databases profile the people, organizations, news and blog outlets, Twitterers, and locations of the news that define the global discourse.
    – See more at:

    Daily Email Newsletters
    Daily Email Newsletters deliver breaking insight to your inbox each morning, 365 days of the year.
    – See more at:

  47. @ Mods; the three dots of an ellipsis have a formal use popularly abused by bloggers desiring Herb Caen’s cachet. Caen popularized Three Dot Journalism in his ‘Baghdad by the Bay’ column beginning in 1947.

  48. Florida: Record Nine Years Have Passed Without A Hurricane Landfall, But That Streak Will End … Eventually
    Friday, October 24 marks nine years since Hurricane Wilma made landfall in southwest Florida, a record hurricane-free streak for the Sunshine State.
    This is the longest stretch on record dating to 1851 that no hurricanes have made landfall in the state.

  49. Ice age Andes settlement found at record high altitude.

    12,400-year-old site in Peru shows ice age humans more adaptable than thought

    The discovery, published online Thursday in the journal Science, suggests that just 2,000 years after arriving in South America, humans had already spread into some extreme environments.

    Paleoindian settlement of the high-altitude Peruvian Andes

    • 12.4 kya was in the middle of the YD in NH. But in SH, EPICA Dome C cores shows SH was already rapidly warming at that time. Andes were probably a warm alpine eco-system at that time, probably like Glacier National Park of today. Today they are dry and cooler.

  50. About half of the world’s population relies on traditional fuels such as biomass (wood, agricultural residues, animal dung, and charcoal) as the primary source of domestic energy. Nearly 2 billion kilograms of biomass is burnt everyday in developing countries. Use of open fires for cooking and heating exposes an estimated 2.8 billion people in the world to enhanced concentrations of particulate matter and gases, greatly in excess of the respective, current WHO air quality guidelines for 24-hour and annual mean concentrations. Household air pollution (HAP) from solid cook-fuel use is now estimated to be responsible for nearly 3.5 million deaths annually, with some of the highest disease burdens experienced by countries in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.

    And they are deprived of fossil fuels be cause it puts out to much co2

  51. Really, it’s worse than we thought, much worse…

    The angler’s favourite bait – the humble lugworm – suffers DNA damage as a result of the extra copper. The pollutant harms their sperm, and their offspring don’t develop properly.

    “It’s a bit of a shock, frankly,” said biologist Ceri Lewis from Exeter University, one of the report’s authors. “It means the effects of ocean acidification may be even more serious than we previously thought. We need to look with new eyes at things which we thought were not vulnerable.”

  52. “Global warming has doubled risk of harsh winters in Eurasia, research finds. Severe winters are more likely over the next few decades due to climate change melting Arctic ice and sending freezing air south, according to new research. The risk of severe winters in Europe and northern Asia has been doubled by global warming, according to new research. The counter-intuitive finding is the result of climate change melting the Arctic ice cap and causing new wind patterns that push freezing air and snow southwards. Severe winters over the last decade have been associated with those years in which the melting of Arctic sea ice was greatest. But the new work is the most comprehensive computer modelling study to date and indicates the frozen winters are being caused by climate change, not simply by natural variations in weather.” The Guardian, 26th October 2014.

    Is the current winter exceptionally cold? That’s because of global warming. Is the current winter exceptionally mild? That’s because of global warming. Is there anything, that global warming can’t do?

  53. pure politics, Goldenberg:

    27 Oct: Guardian: Suzanne Goldenberg: Tom Steyer: the green billionaire pouring millions into the midterms
    Former hedge fund executive has given nearly $56m and taken a stand against the Koch brothers by boosting liberal candidates in close races
    With just days to go until the elections, it was revealed that Steyer had poured an additional $15m of his personal fortune into his NextGen Climate Action Fund, raising his contributions to $55.9m, according to Federal Election Commission filings on Monday night.
    The former hedge fund executive has now emerged as the biggest single donor of this election cycle – at least as far as publicly disclosed donations are concerned – and a favorite new punching bag for Republican opponents, a role previously reserved for Al Gore…
    It has already re-cast climate change as an election issue both now and in the 2016 presidential contest, argued Chris Lehane, a Democratic operative who is now NextGen’s chief strategist.
    “We call 2014 a pivotal year for climate,” he said. “If you look around it’s clear that climate has emerged as a top -tier issue.”…
    And there have been reports he (Steyer) is using NextGen as a dry run for his own future political campaign, perhaps for senator or governor of California…

    • Isn’t Tom Steyer the guy who got rich from fossil fuels? If he is now against them he should do the right thing and give back the money he made from fossil fuels. Give ALL the money to the still missing climate refugees.

  54. Hope your Sunday’s going well! Thought you’d be interested if you haven’t already seen:


    Ryan P. Hughes
    Account Executive
    Shirley & Banister Public Affairs
    O: 703-739-5920 | C: 224-723-8688

    Leaked DHS Report Reveals 13 Foreign Suspected Terrorists Illegally Entered Canada from US

    LUBBOCK, Texas — At least 13 men from Africa with terrorist-related records illegally entered Canada from the U.S. since 2010, according to a leaked Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Intelligence Information Report exclusively obtained by Breitbart Texas. The data pertains only to one small region of the vast U.S.-Canadian border. The report reveals that as of September 9, 2014, there have been 155 encounters in the area “involving 344 ethnic Somalis, 21 ethnic Ethiopians, five ethnic Kenyans, two ethnic Djiboutians, two ethnic Nigerians, and one ethnic Sudanese and Congolese subjects who have attempted or succeeded in entering Canada illegally near the Pembina, ND Port of Entry (POE) since June 2010. These encounters INCLUDE 13 SUBJECTS WITH TERRORIST-RELATED RECORDS [Emphasis Added] who have utilized this method of circumventing designated POEs.”

    The report lists several ethnic Somalis…

    [See link for more info. ~mod.]

  55. The HadCrut4 anomaly for September 2014 has just been updated. It is 0.595 deg C, down from 0.667 in August. However, this leaves “The Pause” on very shaky ground, with negative trends extending back before 2014 to only 2 individual months – namely January and March 2005.

    The slight negative trend which was apparent in August stretched back to November 2001, but this has now disappeared.

  56. Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
    Serial Number: 1732
    Issue Time: 2014 Oct 27 2217 UTC

    ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
    Threshold Reached: 2014 Oct 27 2217 UTC
    Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 UTC
    Active Warning: Yes
    Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
    Induced Currents – Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
    Aurora – Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

  57. LOL:

    27 Oct: Science2.0: Don’t Believe In Global Warming? Women Won’t Vote For You
    But marketing scholars say global warming has replaced abortion as the litmus test for why women should be Democrats – if women care about long-term consequences of their actions, that is…
    Jeff Joireman, associate professor of marketing at Washington State University, says in the Journal of Environmental Psychology that “future-oriented” women – and who doesn’t want to be called that? – are the voting bloc most likely to be fine with higher taxes and more regulations…
    Previous surveys have found that women and those with liberal viewpoints are more likely to claim to want to protect the environment than men – and more than female conservatives…
    During hot weeks, people think more about climate change, so Democrats are hoping for a heat wave or a Super Storm, or something that will get future-oriented liberal women to the polls…
    More than 125,000 political spots cite energy, climate change and the environment – more than all other issues except health care and jobs – according to an analysis by Kantar Media/CMAG. But while voters may take the environment seriously, political candidates do not. In California’s 8th Congressional District, both the Democratic incumbent Ami Bera and his Republican challenger Doug Ose invoke science in their advertising, but neither will go on record outlining what their positions are…
    For their paper, the authors confirmed their belief in global warming psyche using a rather subjective personality trait called “consideration of future consequences.”…

  58. Can we expect more failed predictions faster? The UK’s Met Office has decided to keep on trying with a “140-tonne computer” costing about $156,000,000.

    BBC – 28 October 2014
    Met Office to build £97m supercomputer
    Funding has been confirmed for a £97m supercomputer to improve the Met Office’s weather forecasting and climate modelling.

    The facility will work 13 times faster than the current system, enabling detailed, UK-wide forecast models with a resolution of 1.5km to be run every single hour, rather than every three……..

    The extra capacity will also be useful for climate scientists, who need massive amounts of computing power to run detailed models over much longer time scales.

    It will address one of the key challenges of climate projections – to “answer the real questions people need to know”, said Mr Varley.

    “We can tell you that the global average temperature is going to increase by 3C or 4C if we carry on as we are – but the critical question is what is that going to mean for London?……..

    The 140-tonne computer will be split between the Met Office and Exeter Science Park

  59. Don’t know if this has been discussed before……..
    The October Pattern Index (OPI),
    See –
    ……correlates very well with the Arctic oscillation.
    Looking at the second chart in the link and comparing this with the temperature record during the pause, there appears to be correlation.
    The point I make, is that the October pressure pattern seems to be influencing the Arctic oscillation and global? temperatures.
    Is this evidence for a link between the sun’s UV output and its suspected correlation with winter temperatures in Europe and the eastern part of North America, acting through the correlation, via ozone, with the ‘Hadley’ high pressure areas?
    Joanna Haigh, who published research about this in 2010? – see – – is presently, or was, co-operating with NASA on this topic.
    Evidence maybe, that TSI is not the only metric to consider when considering the sun’s cycles.


    If you thought that the medical profession should focus on healing the sick, then you ought to read this article published by the BMJ (British Medical Journal). My reaction was to wonder why on earth the BMJ would be focusing its attention on the climate change debate instead of informing its members about the latest research into the world of medicine. When I visit a doctor I do not want to be lectured about global warming, but perhaps I am old-fashioned.

    at Saturday, October 04, 2014

  61. A request to Anthony: do you have anyone who can tackle this mess of science purporting to show that low Arctic sea-ice in summer affects the Jetstream, causing blocking highs, loops and a wandering polar vortex. Sure, there is a correlation, but that does not mean cause, and this seems to be lost on the journal reviewers and the press. What is needed is an atmospheric scientist to match the input Bob Tisdale gives on the oceans. It seems to me that a top-down explanation is more likely than bottom-up…and that the trigger for shifting jetstreams is the UV status of the Sun….and many years back Drew Shindell at NASA proposed the mechanism for this top-down effect (and maybe some others before him). What happened to that research?

  62. Hi Anthony, I think it would be instructive to include a polynomial fit to the Arctic temperature trend in the Sea Ice page. Presently it shows a warming trend from 1980 of 0.325C/decade. It is falling of course but it will be showing a rising trend 10 years from now, even if it keeps cooling at current rates. Indeed, since 2007, there is a very noticeable cooling. I believe a polynomial fit would be useful to counter the misinformation of continuing rising temperatures. I note also, that the curve is similar to the flat section of global temps since 1998.

  63. BBC – 27 October 2014
    The scientists said the issue of population and its impact on global consumption was often described as the “elephant in the room” – a problem that the world ignores as it is politically and ethically difficult to tackle.

    But the research shows that curbing numbers will not deal with environmental challenges in the short term.

    “Our work reveals that effective family planning and reproduction education worldwide have great potential to constrain the size of the human population and alleviate pressure on resource availability over the longer term,” said Prof Barry Brook from the University of Tasmania.

    “Our great-great-great-great grandchildren might ultimately benefit from such planning, but people alive today will not.”

    Human population reduction is not a quick fix for environmental problems

  64. REF Authors retract study linking weight loss, green coffee REF
    Another story of dishonesty in alleged research.
    Some time ago Stephen McIntyre had an article decrying the inaccuracy of health claims. More evidence in this case.

    Elsewhere, a study shows that children who drink non-dairy milk products are twice as likely to have vitamin-D deficiency as children who drink cow’s milk.
    Duh? In Canada and the US cow’s milk is fortified with vitamin D, but only some non-dairy milk substitutes are.

    (The brief story from Canadian Press did not inform on controls. Some children cannot tolerate milk so would be given plant-based products, but some would have other differences in their diet due to their parents’ beliefs. There’s also the question of whether or not the latter group were kept out of the sun.

    Could I be tempted to chase research dollars for such things? I may not be clever enough to dream up topics.

    PS: A quick check of a jugs shows that cow’s milk from a major dairy company shows it contains 45% of the recommended daily requirements, whereas goat’s milk from a dairy in south central BC has none.

  65. culling 2 billion of our species will not be enough!

    27 Oct: BBC: Matt McGrath: Population controls ‘will not solve environment issues’
    A worldwide one-child policy would mean the number of people in 2100 remained around current levels, according to a study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
    Even a catastrophic event that killed billions of people would have little effect on the overall impact, it said…
    To work out the impact on population, the team constructed nine different scenarios for population change up to the year 2100, using data from the World Health Organization, and the US Census Bureau’s international database.
    They also used “catastrophe scenarios” to simulate the impacts of climate disruption, wars or global pandemics on population trends…
    “We’ve gone past the point where we can do it easily, just by the sheer magnitude of the population, what we call the demographic momentum. We just can’t stop it fast enough,” said Prof Corey Bradshaw from the University of Adelaide…
    They found that even an event that wiped out two billion people would still leave about eight and a half billion in 2100.
    “Even if we had a third world war in the middle of this century, you would barely make a dent in the trajectory over the next 100 years,” said Prof Bradshaw, something he described as “sobering”…

  66. 28 Oct: UK Express: Jane Mathews: Blackout Britain: UK faces power outages if winter is long and cold, warns National Grid
    THE NATIONAL grid has warned that emergency measures may be needed to keep the lights on this winter.
    However, shadow secretary for energy and climate change Caroline Flint said that it was “very unlikely” the UK would suffer blackouts.
    Speaking to ITV’s This Morning, she said that we needed to reduce pressure on the grid to prepare for ageing power stations going “offline” over the next decade.
    But she added: “I don’t think there will be blackouts this winter, but there will be some announcements about how we can lessen the pressure on the grid.
    “For the long term, it’s about making sure we get the investment in where we need it.”
    ***She said that the focus should be on “newer, cleaner” forms of energy, adding that onshore wind farming was the “cheapest energy around”….

    ***how comforting!

  67. With Halloween coming up, cordial greetings to Critical Thinkers, Dissenters, Iconoclasts, Mavericks, Non-conformists, Questioners and Skeptics!

  68. Hey Anthony, I’m looking for an explanation of why the Mauna Loa CO2 graph looks so ‘regular’. The smooth incline of CO2 seems to be, well, too smooth. I would have thought there would be a lot more inter-year variation in the rate of increase, with much more noise. Particularly in years with more volcanic activity etc.

  69. 28 Oct: Fox News: Kelly File: Weather Channel founder blasts climate change
    This is a rush transcript from “The Kelly File,” October 27, 2014.
    JOHN COLEMAN, WEATHER CHANNEL CO-FOUNDER: Well, it’s very easy. But thank you for having me on your program. You know, a climate skeptic can rarely get on TV, ever since Al Gore made it a plank of the Democratic Party.
    KELLY: And they say you’re a “Looney Tunes” if you don’t believe it.
    COLEMAN: You bet, and I been in the TV news organizations now for 60 years, and I only met two Republicans the whole time, and they were both hiding in the closet.

  70. 28 Oct: HuffPo: Jackson Connor: Weather Channel Co-Founder Tells Fox News Host Global Warming Is A Myth
    Coleman stunned many global warming ***supporters in October with an open letter he penned claiming that the science behind climate change was “not valid.” …

    ***global warming SUPPORTERS??? guess it’s those people who feel no shame reporting headlines such as:

    New Study: Global Warming Has Doubled The Risk Of Extreme Winters In Europe
    ThinkProgress – ‎Oct 27, 2014‎

  71. this Guy is obviously a global warming “supporter”!

    28 Oct: LifeSiteNews: Kirsten Anderson: Former U. of Arizona prof: We must destroy modern civilization to save Earth from global warming
    Guy McPherson, who left academia in 2009 for “ethical reasons,” says humanity will be extinct by 2030 no matter what we do, so for the sake of the other species on Earth, we must “terminate industrial civilization” and abandon the modern technology that gives us electricity, worldwide mobility, clean drinking water, and medical care; to say nothing of the creature comforts of modern life…
    “I think there’s ample chance we can save the living planet, but not our species. … Some people think that this whole thing is about us,” McPherson told the Paul Henry Show in New Zealand last week, during a tour to promote his new book Extinction Dialogues: How To Live With Death In Mind. ..
    “I work toward collapse,” McPherson says in an essay on his website. “Largely unafflicted by the arrogance of humanism, I work on behalf of non-human species. Industrial civilization is destroying every aspect of the living planet, and I know virtually nobody who wants to stop the runaway train. Yes, collapse will kill us. But our deaths are guaranteed regardless, unless I missed a memo.”…

  72. behind paywall. big political move by BoE, prompted by Defra:

    BoE demands climate answers from insurers
    Financial Times – ‎Oct 27, 2014‎

    27 Oct: IFA Magazine: BoE wants climate answers from insurers
    About 30 insurance companies have received a letter from the Bank of England (BoE), as Threadneedle Street officials aim to assess the risks that climate change poses to their solvency and earnings.
    The BoE looks to be increasingly worried about the potential financial fallout generated by concerns over global warming and has written to a number of insurers asking if they were aware when their business models might become affected by changing temperatures or extreme weather disasters.
    According to a Financial Times report, the letter from the bank’s Prudential Regulation Auhtority also asks the insurers whether they have considered they way their investment portfolios could be impacted by climate change…
    ‘We understand the commercial consequences of climate change for the insurance sector,’ said Steve Waygood, responsible investment chief at Aviva Investors, was quoted as saying by the newspaper.
    ‘The government can’t expect the insurance industry to do its job of dealing with climate change. It’s the job of global governments to correct the market failures that exist. They cannot regulate us into doing that for them.’

    28 Oct: Daily Caller: Michael Bastasch: Central Bankers Demand Insurers Assess Climate Risks Despite Lull In Extreme Weather
    The Bank of England is demanding about 30 insurance companies assess the risks that global warming poses to their balance sheets, despite reports of a lull in natural disasters and healthy profit margins in the industry…
    While the U.K. flooding was certainly a dramatic event, there is little evidence that global warming is causing natural disasters to become more frequent or intense. In fact, the insurance market Lloyd’s of London reported in September that its profits were being boosted by a lack of natural disasters this year…READ ALL

  73. re the study in BBC Matt McGrath piece – Population controls ‘will not solve environment issues’ :

    just noticed:

    PNAS: Human population reduction is not a quick fix for environmental problems
    by Corey J. A. Bradshaw and Barry W. Brook
    ***Edited by Paul R. Ehrlich, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, and approved September 15, 2014 (received for review June 5, 2014)

    ***Ehrlich’s involvement explains it all.

  74. What I find curious is this announcement explicitly acknowledges there is a debate over the meme of Global Warming = More & Worse Hurricanes.

    “Although such increases are correlated with warming oceans and are consistent with the thermodynamic theory of hurricane intensity, there remains doubt about the interpretation, integrity, and meaning of these results.” Hmmm … might there be blow back from scientists about the highjacking of science by politics? I’m just saying’.

  75. Anthony, your favourite Aussie wind turbine has been taken down to make way for a new coal loader! How ironic!! Seventeen years ago, in a fit of green stupidity, a wind turbine was installed near Newcastle, NSW, Australia and the energy company promptly enabled green minded suckers to be charged extra for the output from it. The figures seem to indicate that it only produced energy 17% of the time it was there, typical!

  76. OK I have had enough of this already. Here are 2 headlines, one from the left leaning Guardian and one from the right leaning Daily Telegraph. Both report on research suggesting colder NH winters are caused by global warming!

    Guardian – 26 October 2014
    Global warming has doubled risk of harsh winters in Eurasia, research finds

    Daily Telegraph – 27 October 2014
    Cold winters have been caused by global warming: new research

    Yet over the years the IPCC, climate scientists, and published papers have been telling us
    THE OPPOSITE. How is this global warming thing supposed to work on winters again?

      • The climate hysterics are really desperate. They cannot account for the massive failure of their carbon dioxide = global warming religious basis so they have taken up chanting a few mantras to keep the faithful happy. These mantras include such barefaced lies as “97% of scientists agree that man-made CO2 causes global warming” and “sea levels are rising because of AGW” and “hurricanes and storms are getting worse because of AGW” and “the polar ice caps are melting because of AGW” etc… One of the most popular mantras is the “global warming = global cooling” nonsense which is given regular exposure on the climate hysterics favorite media platforms. No scientific explanation is ever offered about the mechanism by which CO2 is converted into atmospheric heat which then by some sort of environmental magic manages to actually cool large portions of the Earth, so do not waste your time looking for them.

        What you are seeing and hearing is nothing more than the chanting of a religious mantra for which any basis of belief is self-delusion, and all their scientific-sounding assertions are nothing more than the chatterings and ravings of the scientifically illiterate and the hollow echoes of their insane worshipers.

  77. We have NOAA reporting that 2013 was tied for the fourth hottest year on record, but the EIA just released their assessment of 2013. Seems there were 18.5% more heating degree days in 2013 causing a 0.5% in the amount of energy used per dollar of GDP. They claim the trend from 2003 to 2012 had this ratio decreasing by ~2% per year.

    A summary of the report is here:

    So which is it? A hot year as claimed by NOAA or a colder year as claimed by EIA? I suppose NOAA is global and EIA is just the USA. Still it seems at odds with each other. I first saw a news article on the report on MIT Technology Review where the writers are definitely supporters of AGW.

    “Blame the Weather for Last Year’s Rise in U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions”

  78. Not my cafe latte!

    Guardian – 29 October 2014
    8 foods you’re about to lose due to climate change
    As worsening drought and extreme weather devastate crops, you may begin seeing global warming when you open your fridge

    What does climate change taste like?

    It’s an odd question, but an increasingly pertinent one…….

    …….Corn (and the animals that eat it)…….
    …….Coffee …….
    …….Maple syrup…….
    …….Wine grapes…….

  79. Nate Lewis of Cal Tech is working on converting sunlight to liquid fuel for large scale energy storage. He has a number of lectures on YouTube that are very good at explaining the realities and scale of energy storage. He is also a big critic of biofuels. This video is representative:

    • AW, I have paper in pdf if you or Bob would like to review it.

      Here is the conclusion from the deFreitas paper.

      Using well-accepted homogenization methods, we have
      derived a mean land surface air temperature trend for New
      Zealand over the past century of 0.28±0.29 °C per century,
      which is considerably less than the S81/M10 value of 0.91±
      0.30 °C per century. By excluding weighted averages and
      including adjustments which are not statistically significant,
      S81 may have allowed too many “false positives” to occur. In
      addition, using long comparison time periods may have
      allowed creeping inhomogeneities and undocumented shifts
      at reference sites to skew the individual adjustments. This is
      borne out by Table 5, which demonstrates that in every case
      the S81 station adjustments greatly increased the individual
      trends, while the RS93 method resulted in equal numbers of
      increases and decreases. As noted previously, S81 did not
      account for gradual effects such as sheltering or UHI. The
      detrending of Albert Park in Auckland and Kelburn in Wellington
      also contributed significantly to the mean trend result.
      We have also shown that a very similar outcome would follow
      if those two stations were not corrected but simply omitted
      from the series.

  80. Australia – calling for weather bureau inquiry, see:

    Nationals MP George Christensen calls for weather bureau inquiry

    A Nationals MP has called for an inquiry into the weather bureau accusing it of fudging figures on the impact of climate change.
    George Christensen says the Bureau Of Meteorology has wiped off early temperature records to justify its claims the weather is getting hotter.
    He pointed to records of the drought 118 years ago where temperatures were hitting 50C in Camden, NSW, 44C in Perth and 43C in Geelong, Victoria.
    The Queensland MP questioned the bureau’s claims that 2013 was the hottest year on record.
    “How could it be getting hotter … if it was really hotter 118 years ago,” he told parliament on Wednesday.
    “It’s relatively simple: the early years are simply wiped from the official record.”
    Mr Christensen said the bureau has been involved in a process of “homogenisation” — changing raw data so the past appears cooler than the present.
    He will be seeking an inquiry into the bureau’s conduct and the homogenisation process this week.
    “We have a scientific process being tainted at the source,” he said.

  81. BBC just had lengthy, scary interview with Maplecroft’s Allan and Fairfax/Reuters naturally has it. too. Maplecroft has been at it for years, & the MSM laps it up every time:

    30 Oct: SMH: Reuters: Climate change a ‘threat multiplier for farming-dependent nations: report
    Climate change and food insecurity are “threat multipliers”, and 32 countries dependent on farming face an “extreme risk” of conflict or civil unrest in the next 30 years, a global analytics firm said on Wednesday.
    Food shortages and rising prices have the potential to worsen political, ethnic, class and religious tensions, the risk advisory firm Maplecroft reported in its annual “Climate Change and Environmental Risk Atlas (CCERA)”.
    Analysts noted that several nations’ military leaders are ahead of their governments in focusing on such risks.
    In Nigeria, for instance, the rise of the Muslim insurgency Boko Haram may be linked to population movements caused by a west African drought a decade ago, the UK-based company said…
    “I think the most surprising thing (the new data shows) is how closely linked food security and climate change are,” James Allan, Maplecroft’s associate director, told the Thomson Reuters Foundation. “We were not expecting this level of linkage.”…
    The Maplecroft study echoes reports from the Pentagon and other military bodies about the security implications of global warming…

  82. 29 Oct: TheWeatherNetwork: Scott Sutherland, Meteorologist: Zombie glaciers? Some ‘dead’ glaciers come back to life, sloughing off parts of themselves in the process
    A large glacier in southeastern Iceland is apparently joining in the ‘zombie’ craze that’s been sweeping the world in recent years, as it adjusts to the increasingly disruptive influence of climate change…
    However, on a recent trip to Iceland’s Falljökull glacier, a team of scientists from the British Geological Survey (BGS) discovered that this icesheet is somewhere between ‘alive’ and ‘dead’ – in effect, a zombie glacier…
    “We took a fully 3D view deep inside Falljökull and what we saw was rapid changes in the structure, a form of ‘downsizing’, to adjust to the changes in climate,” said Emrys Phillips the lead author of the study, soon to be published in the AGU’s Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface, according to the statement…
    “This type of behavior has never been described before,” Phillips said, according to the AGU, adding “We think that other steep, mountain glaciers around the world may be responding in a similar way, rapidly adjusting their active length in response to recent warming of the climate.”
    (H/T to John Upton at

  83. unbelievable!

    29 Oct: The Atlantic: David A. Graham: Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel: Get Used to Endless War
    From ISIS to climate change, the Pentagon chief says, the threats that face the United States are long-term challenges.
    It sure seems like there are frightening events happening everywhere today—from ISIS to Ebola, Russian imperialism to Chinese saber-rattling, climate change to congressional dysfunction. But is it really worse, or will this, too, pass?
    Bad news: It’s really worse, Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel told James Fallows at the Washington Ideas Festival Wednesday….
    And Hagel didn’t seem especially sanguine that it would end anytime soon. In other words: Get used to endless war…
    He noted in particular the challenge of global warming, which Hagel’s Pentagon has made a priority, declaring it a national-security threat, even as Hagel’s own Republican Party continues to block broader steps..
    Buckle your seatbelts.

  84. Something to consider. If nothing else, at least FYI.
    This can work both ways for Climate Scientists, skeptical or believer.

    Breaking news and analysis from the world of science policy

    Researcher files lawsuit over anonymous PubPeer comments
    By Kelly Servick 26 October 2014 9:45 pm
    Kelly is a staff writer at Science.

    By Kelly Servick 26 October 2014 9:45 pm

    The scientist who claimed that comments on the post-publication peer-review website PubPeer caused him to lose a job offer has now filed suit against the anonymous posters and has subpoenaed the website’s operators in a bid to obtain their identities.

    In September, PubPeer’s anonymous moderators revealed that Fazlul Sarkar, a cancer researcher at Wayne State University in Detroit, Michigan, had threatened legal action after the University of Mississippi rescinded its offer of a tenured, $350,000-per-year position. Sarkar, who remains employed at Wayne State, claimed that anonymous comments suggesting misconduct in his research caused the university to revoke its offer.

    This weekend, PubPeer moderators announced in a comment thread that Sarkar has filed a libel suit in a Wayne County circuit court against several “John Does” behind the comments he considers defamatory. And although he is not suing PubPeer directly, Sarkar has filed a subpoena asking the site’s moderators to turn over “all identifying information” about the posters by 10 November. As a Retraction Watch post on the suit explains, shield laws in many states would likely have protected PubPeer from being forced to turn over whatever information it has about the commenters, but Michigan’s shield law applies only to grand jury and criminal cases, not civil cases like this one.

    In an associated complaint letter, Sarkar’s lawyer, Nicholas Roumel of Nacht, Roumel, Salvatore, Blanchard & Walker, P.C. in Ann Arbor, Michigan, details the specific comments he considers defamatory. He also quotes a 19 June letter from Larry Walker, the director of the National Center for Natural Products Research at the University of Mississippi Cancer Institute, where Sarkar was to hold an appointment. In the letter, Walker cites the PubPeer comments as the reason for reversing the university’s job offer, explaining that “to move forward would jeopardize our research enterprise and my own credibility.”

    PubPeer moderators previously told ScienceInsider in an e-mail that they intend to protect their users’ identities, and lawyers at the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) in New York City have offered to help the defend PubPeer against a subpoena. The moderators have not yet announced how they plan to respond.

  85. Following comments by Bob Tisdale on the UNISYS SST anomalies map – having to do with the color scale shown at the bottom, I too sent a email to unisys weather about 12 days ago – and now look what just appeared on the UNISYS site :

    Posted on 2014/10/22 at 3:28 PM UTC

    Unisys Weather has been receiving reports of incorrect maps of the daily SST contours. The data used to make the maps are the official NOAA RTG-SST and anomaly grids, being pulled directly from the NOAA NWSTG.

    We have found an issue with the color scale of the mapping, and this has caused some users to misinterpret the maps. The color scale being used by WXP is wrapping, causing the same color to appear at very low and very high ends of the color table. The color table is also stretched beyond the actual values in the SST anomaly plot. We are working to correct the color table and color bar issue.

    Nice to also see the introduction of a light greay area around zero too !

  86. Today’s California Water News carries a grab-bag of articles. First is an article about bird deaths at the solar power facility in Blythe.

    “Dozens of birds died at a large-scale solar energy plant west of Blythe earlier this month in an accident that could have been prevented had safety netting been replaced after a storm, officials said.”
    “Johnson, deputy director of the energy commission, said the birds appeared to have been killed by a toxic, heat-transfer fluid that somehow got into ponds.”

    Second, linked through an article about suspected medical radioactive waste (I-131) in sanitary sewer discharge, is an article about ocean acidity causing skittish fish.

    “Ocean acidification is a growing problem that scientists are scrambling to understand.

    “It occurs when carbon dioxide absorbed into the ocean mixes with sea water to create carbonic acid. This substance reduces the pH-balance of the surrounding waters making them more corrosive.

    “A new study from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography found that such ocean acidification may be making some fish extremely anxious.”

    The fish anxiety article includes a link to yet another ocean acidification article:

    Which in turn leads to the dissolving pteropods covered previously on WUWT:

    The WUWT coverage is here:

  87. Well the ballots are out for the AAAS membership. For Section W : Atmospheric and Hydrospheric Sciences the candidates for Chairman are Don Wuebbles and Jack Kaye. The former lists the “Nobel Peace Prize (shared with IPCC) 2007″ in his credentials, but the latter is on the US Global Change Research Project. So pretty much a choice between the lesser of two evils.
    For Nominating Committee the ones to NOT vote for are Howard Joe Witte of George Mason Univ’s Climate Communication Committee and Chris E. Forest who is an Associate Prof of Climate Dynamics at Penn State. Both members in good standing of The Team.

  88. Re : UNISYS SST anomalies : you must click on ( from home page ) –> Analysis –> SST ( scroll down ) — SST_anomily_new upper RH ..

    Otherwise, for the time being you will still see the old SST plot – with crap color bar on bottom.

  89. For some reason the WUWT website really boosts the energy usage on my MacBook Air (enough to trigger the fan). It is just about double or triple the energy drain from youtube the next biggest drain and it is the only thing that has ever caused the fan to come on.

  90. those crazy religious CAGW deniers! this goes on and on and on…

    29 Oct: Bloomberg: Get Off the Beach? Hell No. Why Shore People Don’t Get Climate People
    By Flavia Krause-Jackson and Fred Pals
    When Hurricane Sandy came, Deborah Star Reed stayed home…
    So, on Oct. 29, 2012, the retired construction worker was munching on spare ribs with a friend, having ignored the evacuation warnings, when the first wave crashed into her home at the edge of New York’s Jamaica Bay. Hours later, hip-deep in water next to a bobbing piano, she began to pray.
    Reed is still relying on the power of hope over experience. Science says she’s fighting in vain against the encroaching ocean. Instead of leaving, the 63-year-old has renovated the interior, rebuilding the kitchen, and erected four bulkheads by her pier and a concrete wall along the water.
    “Sandy was something exceptional, some crazy Frankenstein,” she said from her deck with a view of Manhattan’s skyline. “I think we use climate change as a way of saying to people they should leave. I know I am protected.”
    Reed’s resistance is borne out by academic studies that say it’s human nature to quickly normalize abnormal weather events…

  91. ***ebola, cagw & overpopulation – hitting the trifecta!

    29 Oct: National Science Foundation: Award Abstract #1460714
    RAPID Proposal: Psychological distance, risk perceptions and communication behaviors during the Ebola outbreak
    Awarded amount to date: $84,110.00
    Investigator(s): Z. Janet Yang (Principal Investigator)
    Sponsor: SUNY at Buffalo
    *** Abstract: In addition to the issue-specific value of knowing more about risk perceptions related to the Ebola outbreak, findings from this project will inform the design of communication messages related to risk issues that are often perceived to be psychologically distant by the American public, such as climate change and overpopulation…

  92. Australians are not particularly litigious by nature, but the CAGW divestment activists could find themselves in court one day. useful info for those in other countries where pension/retirement funds, etc are coming under CAGW pressure:

    31 Oct: BusinessSpectator: Robert Gottliebsen: The class action risk for super funds dumping resources
    Trustees of big superannuation funds like the Australian National University are taking considerable personal risk if they divest fossil fuel resource stocks as a result of their personal environmental beliefs.
    There are people already making preliminary preparations for such actions against trustees should members of the funds suffer. Those actions are being considered on a national interest basis but of course, will be years away.
    And while I am not normally in favour of such actions, big superannuation funds are there for member benefit, not to invest on the basis of the personal beliefs of the trustees.The trustees of superannuation funds have a fiduciary duty to maximise returns for members. That does not mean that they have to always make the right investment decisions, but all decisions have to be taken in good faith for the benefit of members…
    If the trustees assembled a large amount of research which showed that fossil fuel stocks were likely to perform worse than other shares, then the trustees would be on stronger ground.
    But all the indications are that the latest decisions reflect either the personal environmental beliefs of the trustees or that those trustees feel they are under pressure from people who have certain beliefs…

  93. This is from the Department of You Just Can’t Make This Stuff Up. Reporter Madeleine Thomas (no relation), writing for Grist, has described how climate scientists are driving themselves into depressed states over their climate forecasts. One solution she suggests is that relieve their incredible stress by shouting out “F—k!” and other dirty words*. Her piece can’t really be satirised so I’ll give it to you straight.

    The heading is, “Climate depression is for real. Just ask a scientist“.

    The piece instances Professor Camille Parmesan at the University of Texas , who became so “professionally depressed” that she questioned abandoning her research in climate change entirely. But she soothed her anxiety by shifting from the US to the UK, where the grant money was easier to get.

    The reporter emphasised Parmesan’s tragedy by noting that the distraught professor “shared a Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore in 2007. Sorry, Madeleine, she didn’t.

    • Well, you see…
      – Depression comes when you do not know what to do about something (it’s a feeling of helplessness)
      o But the individual used as an example took action by changing employers.
      – Lacking good methods of knowledge they don’t know how to figure things out, they have only their emotions (which can lead to various states including depression)
      – People aren’t believing them and they don’t understand why, that’s depressing for them.

  94. Might be worth another brief post on Patrick Moore’s visit to Australia and include a link to one of his presentations in Sydney. It was extremely well received and covered many of the climate misrepresentations which we need to counter. I know you have previously covered his tour but a follow up would be helpful for his remaining dates dates:


    31st October 2014
    6.00pm for drinks, 7.00pm speaker
    Upstairs at the Astor Theatre, Corner of Beaufort Street and Walcott Street, Mt Lawley
    Ticket only event: RSVP to by 27th October 2014
    Hosted by the Liberal Party of Australia (WA Division)
    1st November 2014
    C3 Church, 94 Waratah Avenue, Dalkeith

    1st meeting 4 – 5pm (GM crops)
    2nd meeting 5:30 – 7pm (Climate)
    A $20 donation ($10 for students) is requested to cover costs – covers both sessions.


    3rd November 2014
    12 noon – 3:00pm
    2-course luncheon with beverages $90 p.p. at Wrest Point, Hobart. For details email:


    5th November 2014
    7 for 7:30, Irish Club 175 Elizabeth Street
    A $20 donation at the door is requested to cover costs.


    6th November 2014
    5 for 5:30 at The J, 60 Noosa Drive, Noosa Heads
    To book for this event, just click on this link
    A $20 donation will buy a ticket.

  95. The NSF awarded an $84,000 grant to researchers at the State University of New York at Buffalo yesterday to figure out how to make the public fear “climate change and overpopulation” as much as Ebola by analyzing how the public became concerned about a potential large-scale Ebola outbreak in the U.S.

    The link on the NSF page has disapeared since it’s been reported in the alternative media, but you can view the abstract via googles cache here…

  96. In my inbox this AM:
    Enesta Jones

    October 31, 2014

    EPA Releases Climate Plans on Fifth Anniversary of President Obama’s Sustainability Initiative

    Plan Builds Capacity to Protect Human Health and the Environment in a Changing Climate

    WASHINGTON– As part of President Obama’s Climate Action Plan, EPA today released plans for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and preparing for climate change impacts such as flooding, sea level rise, severe weather and temperature extremes. These Sustainability Plans and Climate Change Adaptation Plans coincide with the fifth anniversary of President Obama’s 2009 Executive Order on Environmental, Energy and Economic Performance, which set aggressive energy, climate and environmental targets for agencies, and detail how EPA’s actions have already contributed to reducing the Federal Government’s greenhouse gas emissions by more than 17 percent since 2008 – the equivalent of permanently taking 1.8 million cars off the road.

    “Climate change is no longer a distant threat. It is already challenging our communities and our ability to protect the quality of the air we breathe and the water we drink,” said EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy. “EPA’s Adaptation Plan provides the agency with a roadmap for how we will anticipate and plan for a changing climate, while our Sustainability Plan identifies specific ways we will help slow the rate of climate change by reducing our own carbon footprint.”

    Climate Change Adaptation Plan

    When he laid out his Climate Action Plan to cut carbon pollution, prepare communities for the impacts of climate change, and lead international efforts to reduce emissions, the president reiterated his commitment to leading by example in the Federal Government. The climate change impacts that are hitting communities across the country – ranging from more severe droughts and wildfires to record heat waves and damaging storms – are also affecting Federal facilities, operations and resources. The president directed agencies to assess their vulnerabilities to these impacts in Climate Change Adaptation Plans and outline how they will protect federal programs and taxpayer investments.

    The EPA Plan identifies priority actions the Agency will take to incorporate considerations of climate change into its programs, policies, rules and operations to ensure they are effective under future climatic conditions. The Plan reflects input received from States, Tribes and municipal and county officials during development, as well as comments received during a formal Tribal consultation process and a 60 day public comment period during the winter of 2013.

    EPA is also releasing final Climate Change Adaptation Implementation Plans from its National Environmental Program Offices and all 10 Regional Offices. The Implementation Plans, which also reflect responses to public comment, provide more detail on how EPA Programs and Regions will carry out the work called for in the agencywide plan in partnership with states, tribes, and local governments.

    EPA commitments include:
    • Incorporating climate adaptation criteria in the Brownfields grants process to ensure cleanup actions taken by communities are effective as the climate changes.
    • Integrating considerations of climate change into the Clean Water State Revolving Funds process and continue working with States to ensure investments in water infrastructure are resilient to changes in climate.
    • Providing communities with the tools they need to increase their resilience. For example, a Stormwater Calculator and Climate Adaptation Tool empowers community planners to estimate the amount of stormwater runoff that they’ll have to manage today and in the future.

    Sustainability Plan

    To do its part to help prevent the worst impacts of climate change, as the largest energy user in the Nation, the Federal Government must also lead by example to reduce its emissions of climate-changing greenhouse gases. EPA’s Sustainability Plan outlines how the agency has reduced its greenhouse gas emissions by 57.4 percent, and it is meeting additional water, energy and waste targets.

    EPA has consistently met or exceed the federal requirements for energy efficiency, fuel use, renewable energy, and other high-performance sustainable building metrics. In 2013, for example, EPA exceeded the 24 percent energy intensity reduction from its FY 2003 baseline, reducing its FY 2013 energy intensity by 25.6 percent from FY 2003. In FY 2013, EPA also reduced fleet petroleum use by 38.9 percent compared to the FY 2005 baseline, exceeding the goal of 16 percent.
    To view EPA’s Plan and Implementation Plans:

    More information about EPA’s climate adaptation activities:

    To view EPA’s Sustainability Plan:


    You can unsubscribe or update your subscriptions or e-mail address at any time on your Subscriber Preferences Page. All you will need is your e-mail address. If you have any questions or problems, please e-mail for assistance.
    This service is provided to you at no charge by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.



  97. Upcoming IPCC “Synthesis Report” called most important climate document:

    “The period between 1983 and 2012 was very likely the warmest 30-year period of the last 800 years, according to the draft.”

    Highly unlikely, but at least the alarmist authors were careful to exclude most of the Medieval Warm Period. IMO however there was probably at least one 30 year interval during the latter part of the MWP (1214 to c. 1400) warmer, & maybe three such.

  98. Make that possibly four 30-year intervals in the past 800 years warmer than 1983-2012, IMO: 1214-43, 1244-73, 1274-1303 & maybe 1350-79, including the noticeably warm 1360s. The 1320s to early 1330s were also warm, but preceded & followed by cooler periods. From the 1380s, the Little Ice Age arguably was setting in.

  99. About a month ago I send a request to the OAS for membership. Haven’t had a reply. Are they backed up? Hope so. Payment was enclosed. Thanks


    The Grapes of Wrath: France’s Great Wines Are Feeling the Heat

    After a couple of minutes of googling:

    ‘French wine production is forecast to jump 13 percent this year, recovering from the lowest in 40 years as grape harvests rebound in the Burgundy and Beaujolais regions and the Loire River valley.

    Output may rise to 46.6 million hectoliters (1.2 billion gallons) from 41.4 million hectoliters in 2012, the Paris-based Agriculture Ministry wrote in an online report today. The outlook is uncertain as vines are still flowering following cold weather, the report showed. ‘

    Yes, that devilish cold weather, no doubt due to Global Warming…


    “White House Keeping These Global Warming Documents out of the Sunlight”

    Oct. 31, 2014 7:41pm Fred Lucas

    The White House isn’t releasing information about how its top science adviser came up with the claim that global warming was the cause of the severe winter in 2014, prompting legal action by a free market think tank this week.

    There was broad criticism of the assertions in the scientific community, the Washington Post reported.

    This prompted CEI to first ask the White House science office for a correction, citing the federal Information Quality Act, which prohibits government agencies from delivering false information. The office denied the petition, saying that Holdren was offering a personal opinion, which is exempt from the law.

    At that point, CEI filed a Freedom of Information Act request for documented related to the video’s production, and the research to back up Holdren’s opinion. The science office turned down the request saying the records are part of its “deliberative process.” So CEI filed the FOIA lawsuit to compel the office to provide the records.

    During the video, Holdren also said, “A growing body of evidence suggests that the kind of extreme cold being experienced by much of the United States as we speak is a pattern that we can expect to see with increasing frequency as global warming continues.”

    It’s bad enough if tax dollars were used to promote an opinion, Kazman said. But Kazman added, the opinion was presented as fact, even if it conflicts with peer-reviewed published science.

    “If it’s opinion, it’s not labeled as such,” Kazman said. “He claims there is a growing body of evidence. There is a growing body of evidence in the opposite direction.”

  102. Rumors of snow in Florida today…from Facebook. Have not confirmed. I know it snowed 5″ in mtns of NC and snow in Greenville, SC was sticking.


    This link is to an article in the UK newspaper Daily Express, by Ann Widdicombe, commemorating the fact that 6 years ago, she was one of only 5 UK MP’s who opposed the Climate Change Act, when it was introduced.

    How right she now appears, but what an indictment of UK political correctness, and of David Cameron that only 5 conservative MP’s opposed this act.

    Bishop Hill (the blog) is full of commentary on the issue of energy security and whether the lights will go out in the UK this winter. 6 years is all it has taken.

  104. Suggestion for Quote of the week

    Wikipedia has highlighted Dixie Lee Ray, Governor of Washington ’77-’81, a democrat, and former Chairman of the US Atomic Energy Commission. Highlight for me from the article:

    “.. During her retirement she co-authored two books critical of the environmentalist movement with Lou Guzzo. In one of those books, Trashing the Planet, she derisively described environmentalists as “mostly white, middle to upper income and predominantly college educated … they are distinguished by a vocal do-good mentality that sometimes cloaks a strong streak of elitism that is often coupled with a belief that the end justifies the means.”

    During a speech in Pasco, Washington in 1991, she further denounced the growing number of scientists advancing theories of climate change by telling her audience to “beware of averages. The average person has one breast and one testicle.”[26]…”

    That last quote should be quote of the week. Should be more democrats like this.

  105. Anthony,

    I just submitted a well formated story and what I was shown after submitting was the story with all white space stripped out. I hope that isn’t the way you received it. I wrote it in a plain text editor.

  106. Latest Science News Nov 1, 2014 has an article siting two previously unknown documented observations indicating a large volcanic eruption by December 1808 from observation in Bogota Columbia of red, green and blue sunsets, and in Peru February of 1809 of prolonged twilight. I can’t find it on their online site. I know many have complained that Mt. Tambora eruption in 1815 was too late to cause cooling. This is interesting.

    • (TIGHAR is a volunteer operation that exists to recover historic aircraft wrecks. Probably best known for their search for where Amelia Earhart and her navigator ended up when they did not get and accurate navigation update to find their very small island destination in the South Pacific.

      TIGHAR has needed to analyze many old photographs, their big image analysis effort is sonar data from the slope off a reef they suspect the plane was crash-landed on.

      TIGHAR makes a good case for the two having turned south toward a group of islands far away, rather than doing a square search until fuel exhaustion as Mr. and Mrs. Long’s book makes a case for. (It’s a tough choice, various offset aiming strategies enroute and a “what now?” strategy when the island is not in view when it should be.)

      TIGHAR has found many artifacts and a report of bones, all suggesting that a female of Europe/US culture and genetics was on Gardner Island for a while and died there, but nothing unique enough. They do have a piece of aircraft skin that matches photos of a patch put on the aircraft in Miami, that is a very good lead but not sure like finding a big chunk of the aircraft itself at the atoll would be. People keep stumbling across photos and such in files. There is a report of discovery on the island of bones of what was probably a tall female of northern European genetics, TIGHAR has re-analyzed the data a doctor recorded, but the bones went missing in transit somewhere long ago.

  107. MSM CAGW orgy to follow:

    1 Nov: UK Telegraph: Emily Gosden: UN climate change report to warn of ‘severe, pervasive’ effects of global warming
    Flooding, dangerous heatwaves, ill health and violent conflicts among likely risks if the world keeps burning fossil fuels at current rates, IPCC expected to say
    The world is on course to experience “severe and pervasive” negative impacts from climate change unless it takes rapid action to slash its greenhouse gas emissions, a major UN report is expected to warn on Sunday.
    Flooding, dangerous heatwaves, ill health and violent conflicts are among the likely risks if temperatures exceed 2C above pre-industrial levels, the report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change will say.
    Yet on current trends, continued burning of fossil fuels could see temperature increases of between 3.7C and 4.8C by the end of the century, the report warns, according to a draft seen by the Telegraph…
    The final document, which has been agreed line-by-line by international government officials at a summit in Copenhagen over the past week, is intended to provide the clearest and most concise summary yet of the widely-agreed scientific evidence on climate change…
    ***Richard Black, director of the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit, said the key question for those finalising the IPCC report was “what to say about the elephant in the room… that if the computer model projections are right, keeping global warming below 2C basically means ending fossil fuel use well before today’s children start drawing their pensions”…

    ***bbc’s richard black in his new spiritual home.

  108. Lean says it’s worse than the IPCC report suggests!

    31 Oct: UK Telegraph: Geoffrey Lean: Danger: irreversible climate-change forces at work
    The new report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says that irreversible consequences could be averted, at surprisingly little cost, if action is taken without delay
    Campaigners against global warming and their bitterest opponents are united by one word this weekend: irreversible.
    It appears 48 times in the draft of the most important report so far on climate change, being finalised today in Copenhagen, signifying that unless the world takes speedy action to curb emissions of greenhouse gases their dire effect will last for thousands of years, at least…
    Yet – even before publication, it is badly out of date – because it results from a cumbersome six-year process, which cannot take recent scientific findings into account. One of the most worrying studies to date, suggesting that the Western Antarctic ice sheet may have begun irreversible collapse – eventually raising sea levels worldwide by some 10 feet – was only published last May, far too late to be considered…
    The panel urgently needs to get up to speed, issuing regular, perhaps annual, updates on the science…
    Facekinis and fashion masks for China’s ‘airpocalypse’
    Stand by for the latest in haute couture – the pollution mask. Designer Yin Peng has just paraded them as part of his spring/summer 2015 collection during China Fashion Week in Beijing.
    It’s dressing for the “airpocalypse”, as the Chinese call the ever-more-frequent days when tiny particulates exceed maximum World Health Organisation standards by some twentyfold…

  109. 31 Oct: Guardian: Adam Vaughan: IPCC report: six graphs that show how we’re changing the world’s climateA draft of the synthesis report, seen by the Guardian, shows it will repeat the message that there’s no doubt over our role in global warming: “Human influence on the climate system is clear, and recent anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are the highest in history,” it says.
    It doesn’t mince words on the repercussions: “The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, and sea level has risen.”…

  110. ***and then they RESTED! lol.

    2 Nov: SBS: AAP: UN panel adopts landmark climate report
    The United Nations’ expert panel on climate science says there’s “conclusive evidence” that humans are altering the Earth’s climate system.
    A report, which combines the findings of three earlier reports, was adopted after all-night talks that went on until 5am on Saturday by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
    The scientists and government representatives on the panel, who jointly approved the document line by line, then ***rested for a few hours before resuming the session in Copenhagen to finish the document…
    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says scientists are now 95 per cent certain that the buildup of such gases from the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation is the main cause of warming seen since the middle of the 20th century…

  111. behind the rhetoric of the report:

    31 Oct: Reuters: Alister Doyle: U.N. talks of tough global climate targets, vague on national action
    “Somewhere after the middle of this century human-caused emissions will have to come down to a net zero,” Achim Steiner, head of the U.N. Environment Programme, told Reuters…
    Governments feel more comfortable setting long-term goals for the planet than targets for themselves. “No one wants to admit how much they will have to do,” to meet the 2C target, said Alden Meyer of the Union of Concerned Scientists…
    One chapter of the earlier reports indicates rich nations would have to halve their emissions by 2030 from current levels to get on track for 2C. Asian nations as a group would need to cap their soaring emissions around current levels by 2030.
    Few governments are considering such tough goals…

  112. back to reality:

    1 Nov: Bloomberg: Heesu Lee: Shale Boom Redraws Oil Routes as Alaskans Ship to Korea
    The Asian nation, which relies on the Middle East for about 86 percent of its oil imports, is benefiting as new output from Texas to North Dakota displaces the crudes that fed U.S. refineries for decades. South Korea received this month a shipment of Alaskan oil for the first time in at least eight years and may buy more, the importing company said. The country was one of the first to receive a cargo of the ultralight U.S. oil known as condensate after export rules were eased.
    The U.S. shale revolution has driven oil output to the highest in more than three decades, reducing America’s need for overseas purchases and sinking global prices into a bear market…
    The hunt for more oil suppliers goes on. Crude may flow from Canada to South Korea after the two signed a free-trade agreement in September that removed a 3 percent import duty on oil. JBC Energy GmbH said last month the Asian nation’s refiners were beginning to show interest in Canadian grades…
    “It is because of huge demand for crude in Korea,” International Energy Agency Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven said Oct. 27 in Singapore…

  113. 31 Oct: Bloomberg: Eric Roston: Enough With the Fat Climate Change Reports Already
    The United Nations in 1988 entrusted the future of civilization to a loosely confederated, all-volunteer band of Earth scientists and economists. This coterie has a long, bureaucratic name with no memorable abbreviation. It was charged with taking the temperature, so to speak, of the whole planet and advising governments on how big a problem they had their hands. Turns out, a big problem.
    Early next week the group drops the last of four massive tomes that together make up its fifth report in a quarter century. In essence, next week’s edition is a synthesis of the thousands of pages of synthesis that started coming out last fall.
    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s scientific reviews land every six years or so, like the anvil that falls on Wile E. Coyote’s head from time to time…
    The question is, do we really need these massive reports, with little new transformative information, that very few people read?…
    Here are three ways modern technology could help the IPCC get you to pay attention.
    Turn on, Log in, Drop by…
    Front of Mind and Urgent. Every Six Years…
    Hire Web Developers…
    There’s now a cottage industry of websites that explain the main aspects of climate change, from governments (NASA or NOAA), nonprofits (Climate Central) and individuals (Skeptical Science). Researchers at Yale, Columbia, George Mason and elsewhere have learned a lot about effective and ineffective ways to inform people that the world is heating up. It’s easier than ever to find scientific speech translated into human speech.
    And that’s great, because as it turns out, the way scientists conduct their research has very little to do with the way people form opinions about it.

  114. IPCC report poorly-timed?

    2 Nov: Accuweather: Cold, Snow Wreak Havoc on Appalachians, Southeast
    A potent shot of cold air shocked the Southeast and central Appalachians Friday and Saturday, sending snow as far south as Columbia, South Carolina.
    The arrival of the snow in Columbia sets the earliest snowfall record for the area…
    Snow was observed along the spine of the Appalachians all the way into southwestern Pennsylvania…
    This same storm system brought the first snowflakes of the season to areas around Chicago and Detroit to Indianapolis and Cincinnati on Halloween evening.
    More accumulating snow is in store for the mountains from southwestern Pennsylvania to northern Georgia through Saturday night. Folks will want to be ready for possible power outages and travel delays…

    1 Nov: WaPo: Incredible early-season snow slams the Southeast, impacts felt across eastern U.S
    3:00 p.m. update: NWS Morristown reports up to 22″ of snow fell at Mt LeConte in Tennessee’s Smoky Mountains, with drifts waist deep there.
    Here are several new share-worthy items from this stunning mid-fall snowstorm:..
    Perhaps the most incredible aspect of this amazing storm is the low elevation snow in the southeast..

    • News report….

      While the snow and cold is not unheard of for the Great Lakes this time of year, the snow this morning in central South Carolina certainly caught some residents off guard. Columbia recorded its earliest snowfall on record.

      The central Appalachians received the highest snowfall amounts, with some areas receiving well over a foot. The heavy, wet snow, in conjunction with leaves still on many trees, caused downed trees and scattered power outages.

      As of Saturday evening, the highest reported snowfall total was an impressive 22 inches of snow which fell on Mount Le Conte, part of the Great Smoky Mountains National Park in Tennessee.

  115. I thought the IPCC was not supposed to get involved in advocacy and policy. My bad.

    BBC – 2 November 2014
    Fossil fuels should be ‘phased out by 2100′ says IPCC
    The unrestricted use of fossil fuels should be phased out by 2100, if the world is to avoid dangerous climate change, a UN-backed expert panel says.

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says in a stark report that most of the world’s electricity can – and must – be produced from low-carbon sources by 2050.

    If not, the world faces “severe, pervasive and irreversible” damage.

    The UN said inaction would cost “much more” than taking the necessary action……

    The IPCC’s Synthesis Report was published on Sunday in Copenhagen, after a week of intense debate between scientists and government officials.

    IPCC’s Synthesis Report

  116. Regarding someone’s complaint that WUWT is making a computer run hotter or something indicative of working hard:
    – WUWT (due Google) and WordPress (, very slow) are heavy with transfer of information.
    – Tips & Notes is a large page now (time to offload history)
    – watch HDD activity, for large amount of data and catching up (Windows and many HDDs each cache data, but have to pause and catch up writing to the platters)
    – security software may be working hard checking out data transfer and intrusive attempts by Google

  117. One day after the Halloween post by UW Prof. Cliff Mass on the demise of the persistent NE Pacific warm water “Blob” there was additional discussion about North Pacific cooling by Bob Tisdale at WUWT , and Joe Bastardi on his 11/1 Saturday summary at
    Late to the party was Craig Welch (featured along with Seth Borenstein in the “Catch Phrases” WUWT post on 10/20/14) at The Seattle Times.
    Commenters on that article, including Dr. Mass, pointed out the Blob is on it’s last legs.

  118. From the “Ooops – NCAR Government Computer Models Screwed Up – Again – File”

    This from a 2006 NCAR Press Release. Back when the GCM computer models were still “accurate” – not because they were accurate or better programmed than now, but because they had not been proved wrong yet.

    Still, it will be intersting to see if Leif (or anyone else analyzing the sun) knows of any apologies or public corrections or conference results identifying and fixing the errors that have come from the NCAR office that promoted their original study!

    Full text is below. Graphics and links are still valid – at least this morning.

    NCAR News Release
    Scientists Issue Unprecedented Forecast of Next Sunspot Cycle

    March 6, 2006

    BOULDER—The next sunspot cycle will be 30-50% stronger than the last one and begin as much as a year late, according to a breakthrough forecast using a computer model of solar dynamics developed by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Predicting the Sun’s cycles accurately, years in advance, will help societies plan for active bouts of solar storms, which can slow satellite orbits, disrupt communications, and bring down power systems.

    The scientists have confidence in the forecast because, in a series of test runs, the newly developed model simulated the strength of the past eight solar cycles with more than 98% accuracy. The forecasts are generated, in part, by tracking the subsurface movements of the sunspot remnants of the previous two solar cycles. The team is publishing its forecast in the current issue of Geophysical Research Letters.

    “Our model has demonstrated the necessary skill to be used as a forecasting tool,” says NCAR scientist Mausumi Dikpati, the leader of the forecast team at NCAR’s High Altitude Observatory that also includes Peter Gilman and Giuliana de Toma.

    Understanding the cycles

    The Sun goes through approximately 11-year cycles, from peak storm activity to quiet and back again. Solar scientists have tracked them for some time without being able to predict their relative intensity or timing.

    NCAR scientists Mausumi Dikpati (left), Peter Gilman, and Giuliana de Toma examine results from a new computer model of solar dynamics. (Photo by Carlye Calvin, UCAR)

    Forecasting the cycle may help society anticipate solar storms, which can disrupt communications and power systems and affect the orbits of satellites. The storms are linked to twisted magnetic fields in the Sun that suddenly snap and release tremendous amounts of energy. They tend to occur near dark regions of concentrated magnetic fields, known as sunspots.

    The NCAR team’s computer model, known as the Predictive Flux-transport Dynamo Model, draws on research by NCAR scientists indicating that the evolution of sunspots is caused by a current of plasma, or electrified gas, that circulates between the Sun’s equator and its poles over a period of 17 to 22 years. This current acts like a conveyor belt of sunspots.

    The sunspot process begins with tightly concentrated magnetic field lines in the solar convection zone (the outermost layer of the Sun’s interior). The field lines rise to the surface at low latitudes and form bipolar sunspots, which are regions of concentrated magnetic fields. When these sunspots decay, they imprint the moving plasma with a type of magnetic signature. As the plasma nears the poles, it sinks about 200,000 kilometers (124,000 miles) back into the convection zone and starts returning toward the equator at a speed of about one meter (three feet) per second or slower. The increasingly concentrated fields become stretched and twisted by the internal rotation of the Sun as they near the equator, gradually becoming less stable than the surrounding plasma. This eventually causes coiled-up magnetic field lines to rise up, tear through the Sun’s surface, and create new sunspots.

    The subsurface plasma flow used in the model has been verified with the relatively new technique of helioseismology, based on observations from both NSF– and NASA–supported instruments. This technique tracks sound waves reverberating inside the Sun to reveal details about the interior, much as a doctor might use an ultrasound to see inside a patient.
    Figure Comparison

    NCAR scientists have succeeded in simulating the intensity of the sunspot cycle by developing a new computer model of solar processes. This figure compares observations of the past 12 cycles (above) with model results that closely match the sunspot peaks (below). The intensity level is based on the amount of the Sun’s visible hemisphere with sunspot activity. The NCAR team predicts the next cycle will be 30-50% more intense than the current cycle. (Figure by Mausumi Dikpati, Peter Gilman, and Giuliana de Toma, NCAR.)

    Predicting Cycles 24 and 25

    The Predictive Flux-transport Dynamo Model is enabling NCAR scientists to predict that the next solar cycle, known as Cycle 24, will produce sunspots across an area slightly larger than 2.5% of the visible surface of the Sun. The scientists expect the cycle to begin in late 2007 or early 2008, which is about 6 to 12 months later than a cycle would normally start. Cycle 24 is likely to reach its peak about 2012.

    By analyzing recent solar cycles, the scientists also hope to forecast sunspot activity two solar cycles, or 22 years, into the future. The NCAR team is planning in the next year to issue a forecast of Cycle 25, which will peak in the early 2020s.

    “This is a significant breakthrough with important applications, especially for satellite-dependent sectors of society,” explains NCAR scientist Peter Gilman.

    The NCAR team received funding from the National Science Foundation and NASA’s Living with a Star program.

  119. Here’s a thought. Anthony Watts, Marc Morano, Steve McIntyre, Dr. Tim Ball, and others….. get together and make a high profile challenge to James Hansen, Al Gore, Peter Gleick, Michael Mann, etc. to hold a public debate on CAGW. Keep making the offer, loud and repeatedly. It’s a can’t lose proposition.

  120. One of the WordPress advertising links is serving out malware.

    Do not use a Windows machine to follow the “Wow… The Most Awkward Couples Ever” link. I run linux, so I was able to do a bit of investigating without too much risk. Going through the slide show reslted in various “Claim a free Ipad Mini”, or “Survey” pages popping up. Important… they had an “Accept” button, but no “Decline” button. I killed the pages manually.

    The worst of the pack was a “Java update”. This was so glaringly obvious that I will come out and state that it’s malware of some sort…

    * I do not have Java installed on my machine, but I still got a warning saying that my Java is out of date, and urging me to update.

    * The warning page had an “Accept” button, but no “Decline” button.

    * The “update page” said a “download” but the mime-type was set to have it automatically open/execute

    * My browser indicated that the “update” was coming from http colon slash slash which does not sound like an official Java update site. This site has “a bad reputation” See

    I over-rode the default and downloaded “Javas.exe”, which won’t run on my linux machine. If any antivirus outfit wishes to examine it, let me know offline. You have my email address.

  121. so why are you writing about him, Samenow?

    3 Nov: WaPo Blog: Jason Samenow: Why does anyone pay attention to John Coleman, Weather Channel co-founder, on climate change?
    Both Fox News and CNN have recently invited John Coleman, one of the founders of The Weather Channel and former TV meteorologist, to express his views about climate change to their nationa
    l audiences. Coleman is simply an awful choice to discuss this issue. He lacks credentials, many of his statements about climate change completely lack substance or mislead, and I’m not even sure he knows what he actually believes.
    To begin, Coleman hasn’t published a single peer-reviewed paper pertaining to climate change science…

  122. sounds like another theatrical dud:

    3 Nov: NYU News: Clio McConnell: Play has audience heads buzzing
    While Benjamin Kunkel’s “Buzz” is nothing if not metatheatrical, it engages viewers on levels most plays about plays never reach…
    The play raises interesting questions about climate change, romantic relationships and even customer service, but perhaps the most thought-provoking aspect of “Buzz” is its commentary on the current state of theater in the United States…
    “Buzz” is playing at Tom and Sasha’s Loft in Gowanus, Brooklyn, through Nov. 22.

    3 Nov: NYT: Alexis Soloski: Pests in the Apartment, but No Ants in the Pants
    ‘Buzz,’ a New Play by Benjamin Kunkel
    The devastation of the climate, the ravages of capitalism, the marginal status of theater — that’s a lot to cram into a single South Brooklyn apartment. “Buzz,” the debut play by the novelist and critic Benjamin Kunkel, takes place in the loft where Tom (Trevor Kluckman) struggles to write a play, while his girlfriend, Sasha (Jeri Silverman), awaits the birth of their baby…
    Broadly, Mr. Kunkel’s pesky flies represent all the things we put from our minds — climate change, war abroad, inequality at home — in order to enjoy our reasonably comfortable theatergoing lives. And, of course, this disjunction (the severity of these crises, the poverty of both collective and individual responses) is worth exploring. But the dialogue doesn’t compel, and the world of the play doesn’t purposefully cohere or intentionally fracture…
    Instead of redress, we get only undress.

  123. ***”Buzz” playwright, Kunkel, thinks CAGW has “occasioned a lot of good journalism”. LOL:

    24 Oct: New Yorker: Inventing Climate-Change Literature
    by Benjamin Kunkel
    ***Climate change has occasioned a lot of good journalism, but it poses as tremendous problems for imaginative literature as it does for electoral politics, and for many of the same reasons. The worst effects aren’t yet here, and even when global warming is the suspected culprit behind a hurricane or a drought, its fingerprints are never to be found on the scene of any particular disaster. Fictional characters, like flesh-and-blood citizens, have more urgent concerns than the state of the climate twenty years hence. Nor is it easy for people, real or imaginary, to feel any special moral relationship to the problem. Oil-company executives may be especially guilty, and environmental activists especially virtuous. The rest of us, in the rich countries, are culpable to such a similar degree that we might as well be equally innocent. So it is that a crisis at the center of our collective life exists for us at the margins of individual consciousness, as a whisper of dread or a rustle of personal implication…
    The strongest work of climate-change lit, to call it that, that I’ve read is Ben Lerner’s recent novel “10:04,” in which the significance of daily life—the books people write, the personal relationships they try to sustain—threatens to dissolve in the face of what is, for the narrator, “a future I increasingly imagined as underwater.” …
    But was my play, which I ended up calling “Buzz,” really a climate-change allegory?…

  124. I recently read in the Economist that R12 and related CFC’s reduced by the Montreal Protocol to affect ozone depletion had an unexpected side effect… they were effectively better than 1000X the (admittedly modest) warming contribution via CO2 (and are obviously man made, and therefore easy to eliminate). The article claimed that CFC mfg and use phaseout is the most significant human caused and corrected factor with AGW (and perhaps the only regulatory success, period).

    My question: Do the climate models accurately capture this effect? What if the tiny amount of climate change is due to CFC use, and has therefore already been eliminated by the 1990’s phaseout?

    • Probably outside of my area of expertise, but unless we know the ‘natural causes’ of warming and cooling, any speculation about man-made causes is just that: Speculation.

  125. This just in from E&ETV at:

    Former EPA General Counsel Martella says Clean Power Plan will not survive legal challenges
    Aired: Tuesday, November 4, 2014
    Watch&nbsp Watch
    Email&nbsp Email

    How could political shifts in Washington following this week’s midterm elections impact President Obama’s aggressive climate action agenda? During today’s OnPoint, Roger Martella, a partner at Sidley Austin LLP and the former general counsel at U.S. EPA, discusses the legislative and legal battles ahead for EPA’s Clean Power Plan and Clean Air Act regulations. Martella also explains why he believes the existing source standard will not survive in court.
    Roger Martella: And I don’t say that lightly, ’cause I have taken a really hard look at it and I recognize the importance of the policy here and what the administration’s trying to do. But the legal precedent of saying for the first time in 40 years without any congressional authorization that one entity can be now held liable beyond the fence line for the independent actions of third parties and vice versa, I think any court’s going to have a hard time opening that precedent up long term, not only for the utility sector but for the next generation of rulemakings coming out of EPA for other sectors.

  126. Wow! Lots of commentary about the IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report.

    Global warming fight is hindered by distrust, not denial
    (I”the IPCC is good at dire warnings, and very poor at practical solutions.”)

    Green groups hindering global warming fight with ‘alarmist’ warnings: UN scientists (Myles Allen)

    ‘Alarmist’ green groups made ‘exaggerated’ claims about global warming, UN climate change scientist says
    Prof Myles Allen criticises ‘unhelpful’ alarmism by some NGOs as UN report says science is clear that drastic action is now needed to tackle climate change

    Dedicated to promoting synthetic climate alarmism
    The latest IPCC report is another example of bending science for “a good cause”

  127. The 5th Anniversary of the first Climategate release of emails is fast approaching.

    This would be the optimal time for any post(s) reviewing the content and significance of the Climategate files, 5 years on….

  128. I suggest the exact opposite, that the natural causes behind warming and cooling trends in climate are vastly more difficult to understand, since they are entangled with the evolution of life. Compared to a manmade chemical with well established production, half life, measurement, and chemistry. It would be supremely ironic if AGW were true, but only with regard to CFC’s and other unique man made chemicals that have already been withdrawn from production.

    The big part of why climate models for CO2 fail in such an epic fashion is that they neglect feedback effects from life itself. Oxygen poisoning in the atmosphere when plant life evolved and covered the earth is well established. O2/CO2 is a balancing act between plant and animal life, not a static quantity.

    I was truly baffled when the fedgov/EPA decided that one of the basic building blocks of the photosynthetic cycle is a pollutant. How does a society so dependent on technology remain so ignorant of basic science?

    I would love to see a Far Side comic with representatives from the United Plants Assembly petitioning for more power generation from coal to get rid of O2 pollution.

  129. Norwegian Meteorological Institute (workplace of Rasmus Benestad of RealClimate fame) predicts 40 degrees Celsius during the wintertime in December 2050 in Oslo, Norway.

    Other climate experts from the same institute, e.g. scientist Hans Olav Hygen, claims that the scenario presented is anything but extreme, and that they have much more extreme scenario in store.

  130. So how much do you really receive from ‘Big Oil’ Anthony? /sarc

    I bet it’s nowhere near the amount ‘Big Green’ receives, according to an eye opening, mind boggling article at Ice Age Now by Alan Caruba:

    By examining the Internal Revenue Service Form 990 reports of non-profit organizations, [Paul] Driessen and [Ron] Arnold discovered that, among the 2012 incomes of better-known environmental groups, the Sierra Club took in $97,757,678 and its Foundation took in $47,163,599. The Environmental Defense Fund listed $111,915,138 in earnings, the Natural Resources Defense Council took in $98,701,707 and the National Audubon Society took in $96,206,883. These four groups accounted for more than $353 million in one year.
    It will no doubt astound many readers to learn that there are more than 26,500 American environmental groups. They collected total revenues of more than $81 billion from 2000 to 2012, according to Giving USA Institute, with only a small part of that coming from membership dues and individual contributions.
    “If that sounds too intimidating to confront,” say Driessen and Arnold, “it gets worse. Our research found a truly shocking blind spot; many major environmental groups get nearly half their revenue from private foundations like the Pew Charitable Trusts, the Rockefeller Brothers Fund, and Wal-Mart’s Walton Family Foundation. Just the top 50 foundation donors (out of 81,777) gave green groups $812,639,999 (2010 figures), according to the Foundation Center’s vast database.”

    More can be read at the Ice Age Now:

  131. Hockeyschtick has another “hard science” paper on offer:

    New paper finds another potential solar amplification mechanism via ocean & atmospheric oscillations

    see also the comment of Frank Walters

    The effect of identifiable solar effects on ancient civilizations is a subject that demands serious research. If we can document these effects we are in a position to truly deal with climate change. If we can rid ourselves of climate shysters, that is.

  132. Keystone has filibuster proof majority in Senate, so it’s up to Obama:

    Even his own State Dept. said the pipeline wouldn’t add to carbon emissions, which should have been obvious since the energy was going to go somewhere, no matter what, if not to the US, then to China, where there are fewer, as in no, emission controls. A no-brainer, but then the CACA* whackos are clearly brainless.

  133. Contrary to speculation of a “hibernating” Sun, old Sol has been merrily popping off M-flares for the past three days. One of them almost an X-flare:

    Cycle 24 is currently having its solar maximum, so solar activity is now relatively high SFI=135 SN=113, even being the runt of the recent litter. Roughly the same level as Cycle 20 at the same progression.

    Bottom Line: if reduced sunspot counts have a cooling effect, then why don’t we see them every 11 years, during the solar minima?

  134. Anyone else having problems connecting to JoNova site?
    Using three browsers I get:
    “The server at is taking too long to respond.” Opera
    or: “The connection has timed out
    The server at is taking too long to respond.”
    or: “Internet Explorer cannot display the webpage “ Internet Explorer (of course)
    Any feedback appreciated.

  135. It will no doubt astound many readers to learn that there are more than 26,500 American environmental groups. They collected total revenues of more than $81 billion from 2000 to 2012, according to Giving USA Institute, with only a small part of that coming from membership dues and individual contributions.

    “Cracking Big Green” examined the Internal Revenue Service Form 990 reports of non-profit organizations. Driessen and Arnold discovered that, among the 2012 incomes of better-known environmental groups, the Sierra Club took in $97,757,678 and its Foundation took in $47,163,599. The Environmental Defense Fund listed $111,915,138 in earnings, the Natural Resources Defense Council took in $98,701,707 and the National Audubon Society took in $96,206,883. These four groups accounted for more than $353 million in one year.

    That pays for a lot of lobbying at the state and federal level. It pays for a lot of propaganda that the Earth needs saving because of global warming or climate change. Now add in Greenpeace USA at $32,791,149, the Greenpeace Fund at $12,878,777; the National Wildlife Federation at $84,725,518; the National Parks Conservation Association at $25,782,975; and The Wilderness Society at $24,862,909. Al Gore’s Alliance for Climate Protection took in $19,150,215. That’s a lot of money to protect something that cannot be “protected”, but small in comparison to other Green organizations.

    If you wonder why you have been hearing and reading endless doomsday scenarios about the warming of the Earth, the rise of the seas, and the disappearance of species and forests, for decades, the reason is that a huge propaganda machine is financed at levels that are mind boggling.

  136. NASA’s Climate Change Website is all in on one-sided discussion of AGW/CC. And now, look! We’ve made our climate change agitprop website mobile friendly!! I saw this in my daily JPL newsletter.

    The first thing that shows obvious bias is that while they have an Arctic Ice Level item on their “Vital Signs Dashboard”, they have nothing about Antarctic Ice Levels. Now why would that be?

    Meanwhile, we depend on Putin to get our crews to/from the ISS, our weather satellite capability is in increasing dire straits and the replacement program is a study in dysfunction, etc. But we have a Webby Award winning thoroughly propagandized CC website!

    Here’s the comment I submitted to the site:

    “It seems like this is more of a propaganda site than an objective science discussion site. Where is the contrarian evidence and position discussed? If there is an Arctic Ice Level, why is there no Antarctic Ice Level on the “Vital Signs Dashboard”? Because those are at almost unprecedented highs? C’mon guys, NASA shouldn’t become a fully politicized federal agency like our current IRS, DOJ, EPA, etc. But, we all know who the ultimate boss is, so I won’t hold my breath for a truly scientific and objective treatment of the subject.”

  137. Solar eclipse in March to challenge European power grids

    Nov 7 (Reuters) – A solar eclipse in March next year will be an unprecedented test of European electricity grids because of the massive increase in solar power production on the continent, French power grid RTE said on Friday.

    On the morning of March 20, 2015, an almost total solar eclipse will block direct sunlight over Norway and northern Europe for about one hour and a half and will also be visible in other parts of Europe, North Africa and Russia.

    Europe’s solar power capacity has significantly increased since the last major eclipse in August 1999, and, depending on the weather that day, the eclipse could cause rapid swings in output that will require adjustments by the grids.

    If an eclipse can do that imagine partly cloudy days!

  138. Some Good News…

    I’m not exactly certain what a “Climate Denier” is but apparently James Inhofe is one and he will head the Environment committee in the next senate.

    Apparently, he is also a climate skeptic, again a term I do not quite understand, and he says he will chair the Environment Committee.

    If by climate denier or climate skeptic they mean that Inhoffe does not accept the argument of human caused global warming, then they are correct.

    So.. Good News for science, reason and the earth.

  139. Another big solar flare, X1.6, a few hours ago:

    All of these recent flares happened around a new monster-sized sunspot, AR2205, which appeared on the Eastern limb a few days ago and has stirred up a lot of solar magnetic activity. Very large, rivaling AR2192 in size (which has since rotated out of view), AR2205 is situated in the northern solar hemisphere, which has been quiet recently.

    No effect on Earth yet, but when AR2205 rotates a bit closer to the center of the Sun, we may see some CME activity headed our way.

  140. Solar cooker is cooking with gas.

    …”Ivanpah solar power plant generating way less power than expected”

    The Ivanpah concentrated solar power plant in the California Mojave desert near Primm Nevada is not producing nearly as much electricity as predicted.

    Natural gas, not the heat of the sun, is being used more than originally projected to power the turbines. CSP works by reflecting the heat of the sun from heliostat mirrors to a central tower to run the turbines. Ivanpah has produced a mere 25% of expected electricity since December 2013 when it began production, a dismal result indeed.

    See more at:

    • As your link shows, they want a 539 million dollar GRANT!
      I say let them suffer the consequences of their own actions!

    • A typical example of letting your heart out run your brain. These guys invested in this solar boondoggle because they ‘believed’ in it. Apparently they didn’t take the time to do proper due diligence before investing. Of course now, as big supporters of the current administration, they expect the government to bail them out.

      *** Andy… This might be good for its own thread. ***


    Waterless Fracking may increase access to more energy, without the need to deal with the waste water.

    From the article:

    Researchers at the Colorado School of Mines claim they have developed a method to unlock hydrocarbons trapped in shale with using any water at all. They are seeking to perfect Cryogenic fracturing, which replaces water with searing cold liquid nitrogen (or carbon dioxide). Used at temperatures below minus 321 Fahrenheit, it is pumped underground at high pressure. Once it comes into contact with the heated, pressurized shale, a reaction occurs which caused the shale to crack open and creates fissures through which the hydrocarbons can gush out. They liken it to pouring hot water onto a frozen car windshield, with the sharp and sudden temperature change causing the glass to crack.

    There are several positive results from using this technique. First, the liquid nitrogen will evaporate underground eliminating the need for costly recovery and retreatment. Further, they claim it will form bigger fissures or canals through which hydrocarbons can be extracted, boosting oil and gas production. In theory, the below-freezing liquid should actually be more rather than less effective than water based methods.

    Second, it may well solve problems with water-sensitive formations or those with an unwanted amount of clay. Slickwater fracking often causes water saturation around the fracture and clay swelling, hindering the ability to transport hydrocarbons from the fracture to the well bore. Some shale absorbs water very quickly and the entire formation may swell in size and hinder transport through the fissures we have created. Even in a best case scenario, using hydraulic fracturing results in a low recovery factor, caused largely by water trapping.

  142. aren’t we lucky to be blessed with a visit by dr. ehrlich?

    AUDIO: 6 Nov: ABC Breakfast: Population control critical to climate solution: Paul Ehrlich
    Dr. Ehrlich says the solution to climate change is universal access to birth control, abortion on demand, and the end to what he calls ‘the disease’ of growth economics.
    Paul Enrlich is currently in Australia to catch a glimpse of one of Australia’s rarest birds, the Orange Bellied Parrot…

    re Ehrlich’s lecture at the University of Tasmania on Thursday:

    6 Nov: AAP: Don’t strive for growth, expert warns Australia
    Australia should abandon its agricultural ambitions as the effects of climate change worsen, a population expert has warned.
    United States biologist Paul Ehrlich – famous for co-authoring controversial 1960s book The Population Bomb – has outlined a self-destructive cycle linked to increasing the size of the human race.
    “The more people you have the more greenhouse gases you have,” Prof Ehrlich told AAP in Hobart on Thursday.
    “And you have to remember that climate change is screwing agriculture.”…
    “Australia is desperately concerned with becoming a commodities exporter when you should be thinking about becoming a resilient country and taking advantage of fantastic solar and other scientific opportunities.”
    An outspoken advocate for birth control, Prof Ehrlich describes population growth as the “toxification of the planet”…
    “Growth is the disease, not the cure … growth is the enemy,” he said…

  143. Those who don’t like the serif font “pt-serif-1″ used on this site can substitute it by blocking its source, This can be done with Adblock Plus or by aliasing to in /etc/hosts. In addition, a browser extension, Stylish, can be used to control which of the local fonts will be used as a substitute, although the default should be good enough.

    For good measure, search your system and remove all instances of the PT Serif font that may be installed locally.

  144. Research from University of East Anglia (of course) reported in The Register

    Turn the lights down low. COP-U-LATER, orchids.

    Researchers from the University of East Anglia, Reg readers may want to take note, used Met Office climate records as part of their study. So we bring this information to you along with some serious side-eye glances.

    They compared that data with the historical records of the flowering time of the Early Spider Orchid (Ophrys sphegodes) and museum specimens of a solitary bee (Andrena nigroaenea).

    However, where the climate was found to be warmer in the early stages of Spring, bees were sleepily wrapping their fuzzy bodies around their female counterparts, even though the orchids had already flowered, the scientists said.

    “These orchids have evolved so that when Spring comes, their flowers appear at the same time as this specific bee – making pollination possible,” said researcher Dr Karen Robbirt from the uni’s school of biological sciences. She added:

    But we have shown that plants and their pollinators show different responses to climate change, and that warming will widen the timeline between bees and flowers emerging. If replicated in less specific systems, this could have severe implications for crop productivity.

    Lead researcher Professor Anthony Davy explained that, under normal conditions, male bees fall into the so-called “pseudocopulation” trap. In other words, they are hoodwinked into pollinating orchid flowers.

    He claimed that climate change appeared to show that this game of deceit nature plays on bees can be rudely disrupted.

    The prof, who – among others – worked on the research with the Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, which helped fund the project, said:

    Warming by as little as 2°C causes the males to emerge much earlier, meaning they are less well synchronised with the orchids. The problem is compounded by the female bees which are also emerging earlier, and attracting the attention of the male bees. This means that the male bees are more likely to copulate with the female bees, rather than pollinating the orchids.

    There will be progressive disruption of pollination systems with climatic warming, which could lead to the breakdown of coevolved interactions between species because they either respond either to different seasonal cues, or to the same cues at different rates.

    The Potential Disruption of Pollination in a Sexually Deceptive Orchid by Climate Change paper was published in the Current Biology journal on 6 November. ®

  145. Nuri is getting a lot of attention. All the buzzwords exploding, etc.

    Could be a good time for a post on extra-tropical storms.

  146. Ever since Apple introduced their OS7, I’ve noticed the battery runs out much more quickly. The simple fix is to go into Settings –> General –> Background App Refresh –> switch it off. This isn’t well publicized, I don’t think. Before OS7, such background app refreshing was not done. So, the “greenhouse impact” of introducing OS7 would have been considerable, with 20M users suddenly doubling the electricity demands of their iPhones & iPads. That wasn’t very eco-conscious of Apple, was it now? It would be a service to users to let them know of this simple fix.

  147. Well apparently the EPA has finally gone insane.
    Apparently they want to ban 72 “hazardous internet ingredients” in pesticides. Included among those 72 is argon a Nobel inert gas which is used precisely because it is so non-reactive, and abundant in the atmosphere comprising just short of 1% at 0.93%. It is also used in thermal windows, and many other common commercial applications including used as a welding gas because of its lack of reactivity.

    How an inert gas ever got listed on a list that includes the name hazardous in the title is astounding in itself.
    Their action would remove argon from the list of permitted inert ingredients and if any subsequent product wanted to use it they would have to go through the whole permitting process again from scratch.

  148. With Bardarbunga cranking out massive tons of SO2 daily (equivalent to twice European human daily output — according to several reputable sources), it sure would be nice to see some expert discussion about what people think all this SO2 could do to the global climate for the next year.


    “Politics like any other aspect of life has its fads. Remember the Beatles haircuts? Gun control fell out of fashion. Socialists celebrated the Sandy Hook shootings only to discover that Americans wanted better enforcement of existing gun control, and better mental health treatment.

    “This year, global warming/climate change has fallen out of fashion. It’s so 20th century.” (snip)

    “The public has tuned out the debate. Doomsday warnings have their expiration dates. Global warming/climate change has reached its.”

  150. The Foods We’re Not About to Lose

    “According to The Guardian, there are some “foods you’re about to lose due to climate change.”
    “Among these foods we are collectively about to lose are beans, cherries, cocoa beans, coffee, and corn.
    “Here are the global trends in both yield and total production since 1990 for these five foods, using data from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) database.”

    “Overall, it certainly doesn’t look like we are about to lose any of these foods any time soon.”

  151. Major snow in Siberia may bring a bad winter in the USA –

    Harsh Winter Outlook Made a Bit More Dire by Siberia Snow
    By Brian K. Sullivan Nov 6, 2014 11:07 AM CT
    Photographer: Andrey Rudakov/Bloomberg
    A locomotive travels along snow covered tracks on the Trans-Siberian railroad in the… Read More
    Remember how evidence was mounting last month that early snowfall was accumulating across Siberia? And remember how there’s a theory that says this snowfall signals a cold winter?
    So in the two and a half weeks since, the news for the winter-haters has, unfortunately, only gotten worse.
    About 14.1 million square kilometers of snow blanketed Siberia at the end of October, the second most in records going back to 1967, according to Rutgers University’s Global Snow Lab. The record was in 1976, which broke a streak of mild winters in the eastern U.S. In addition, the speed at which snow has covered the region is the fastest since at least 1998.
    Taken together they signal greater chances for frigid air to spill out of the Arctic into more temperate regions of North America, Europe and Asia, said Judah Cohen, director of seasonal forecasting at Atmospheric and Environmental Research in Lexington, Massachusetts, who developed the theory linking Siberian snow with winter weather.
    “A rapid advance of Eurasian snow cover during the month of October favors that the upcoming winter will be cold across the Northern Hemisphere,” Cohen said in an interview yesterday. “This past October the signal was quite robust.”
    There are a few steps to get from the snows of Siberia to the chills in New York City.
    Cold air builds over the expanse of snow, strengthening the pressure system known as a Siberian high. The high weakens the winds that circle the North Pole, allowing the cold air to leak into the lower latitudes. The term Polar Vortex actually refers to those winds, not the frigid weather.
    Chance Discovery
    Cohen said he first noticed the relationship between the Eurasian snow cover and larger weather patterns while doing post-doctoral work at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in the 1990s.
    It came about by chance because the original assignment was to look at the North American snow cover, Cohen said. He changed it to Eurasian and “when we investigated further it turned out it was Eurasian snow cover that was the dominant influence.”
    Last year, 12.85 million square kilometers covered Eurasia at the end of October. By January, waves of frigid air were pummeling the U.S. Prices for natural gas, a heating fuel used by half of American households, rose to a five-year high in February.
    “The big early snowbuild will definitely set things up for a cold back half of the winter,” said Todd Crawford, a meteorologist at commercial forecaster WSI in Andover, Massachusetts.
    October Snow
    When the snow across Eurasia began piling up again this October, many forecasters and energy traders began to take note.
    By Oct. 13, Cohen had calculated, 12.2 million square kilometers of Eurasia were covered by snow, compared with 10.8 million the same day last year.
    Not everyone is convinced.
    Mike Halpert, acting director of the U.S. Climate Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland, told reporters last month that there wasn’t enough historical information to make the Siberian snow rule a useful tool.
    The climate center’s forecast calls for a greater chance for a mild winter along the West Coast and then across the northern U.S. states into New England.
    Energy Clients
    Matt Rogers, a commercial forecaster in Bethesda, Maryland, said that while the snow accumulation isn’t a perfect predictor, he does keep an eye on it to help make seasonal calls for energy clients.
    “I believe it increases the chances of a cold winter, but it does not guarantee it,” said Rogers, president of Commodity Weather Group LLC in Bethesda, Maryland. “I’ve seen some failures of it before.”
    Rogers said for the U.S. East Coast, it’s important to watch the North Atlantic Oscillation, which often acts in tandem the Arctic one.
    The oscillation is a shift of high and low pressure systems over the ocean that can influence storm tracks and the location of the jet stream, and affect the weather over the eastern U.S. and western Europe.
    For Cohen, this year presents a good opportunity to test the theory. After seeing this much snow pile up, a balmy January and February in the eastern U.S. would undercut the thesis.
    Cohen said he has started a blog to track the changes in the Arctic oscillation and what happens with temperatures this season.
    “It is an important year,” Cohen said, “because it is a big number for the snow.”
    To contact the reporter on this story: Brian K. Sullivan in Boston at
    To contact the editors responsible for this story: David Marino at Stephen Cunningham

  152. 10 Nov: The Conversation: Martin Rice: Australia is losing ground as the climate policy race gains pace
    (Martin Rice is Research Manager, The Climate Council of Australia and Honorary Associate, Department of Environment and Geography at Macquarie University)
    United States: stepping up to the plate
    Similarly, there have been positive developments by another global energy giant, the United States…

    9 Nov: Boston Globe: James Carroll: Scientists, speak up on climate change
    ‘Science has spoken,” UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon said the other day, presenting the latest dire warning on climate change…
    One could almost feel the breeze stirred by the broad population’s collective shrug at this news coming from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change meeting in Copenhagen. Almost as astonishing as the looming threat that carbon poisons pose for the planet is the indifference that average Americans seem to feel about it. Such climate denial, now decades old, translates into a lack of political pressure on Washington, which in turn results in the failure of both presidential administrations and Congress to rise vigorously in defense of the environment…
    What would it take for the public to get clear both on the unanimity of climate scientists, and on the urgency of what they see coming? An answer from the recent past suggests itself: scientists, instead of merely providing activists and journalists with irrefutable climate data, must leave their cloistered laboratories to become activists themselves. Scientists must take to the streets and lead, even if that means taking hits in the contentious public square.
    It happened before, when scientists helped steer the human species away from suicide. The Cold War nuclear arms race might well have run on to Armageddon had not a remarkable cohort of physicists, astronomers, mathematicians, and physicians put their detached analysis at the service of moral fervor…

  153. China’s Electric Vehicle Policy Not Turning Over
    November 6, 2014
    By Robert O’Neill


    The Chinese government’s goals were to have 500,000 electric vehicles on the road by 2011 (accounting for 5 percent of total vehicle sales) and 5 million on the road by 2020. But, as the authors point out, “in mid-2013, China had only about 40,000 electric vehicles on the road, more than 80 percent of which were in public fleet vehicles, such as taxis and buses.”


    While China’s program has been primarily driven by a desire to build globally competitive electric vehicles, air pollution, especially in the cities, has become a national imperative. Yet, if coal-fired power is used to meet electric vehicle electricity demand, the absence of tail pipe emissions will likely be entirely offset by incremental power generation.


  154. A county in Wisconsin, part of which is Green Bay, the home of the packers, has declared wind turbines as “health hazards” because of low frequency noise pollution.

  155. This is the one thing which “closes the loop” for me and explains the extreme ‘belief’ of politicians and gigantic corporations in the CAGW story:

    Comment by Graeme No 3
    ….with a link to

    The last two comments show exactly why big finance (the sector with the most lobbyists and with the deepest pockets for campaign contributions) loves subsidized renewals, in spite of the pitiful economics of the sector as detailed in that excellent article:

    christensen411 says: June 25, 2013 at 5:32 pm

    In 2009, BusinessWeek reported that from 2005-2009 NextEra Energy/FPL (aka Florida Power & Light) paid “just $88 million in taxes on earnings of nearly $7 billion” (a tax rate of 1.25%) due to “taking advantage of incentives to develop renewable resources.” (

    NextEra Energy/FPL is the largest recipient of renewable energy Production Tax Credit. (

    The Production Tax Credit (PTC) works the following way as explained by Senator Lamar Alexander: “… this 2.2 cents credit is worth 3.4 cents in cash savings on the tax return of a wealthy investor” and “continues for the first ten years that the turbine is in service.” “Wind developers often sell their tax credits to Wall Street banks or big corporations or other investors who have large incomes. They create what is called a ‘tax equity’ deal in order to lower or eliminate taxes.”

    See page 18 & 19 of this NextEra presentation: You will see that not only is NextEra/FL profitting from this scam but they have set up “tax equity” deals with Too-Big-To-Fails, like JP Morgan, Bank of America, Google, etc etc. They’ve found a fabulous way to strip mine our tax code — taking from us at the left pocket using the tax angle and stealing from us at the right pocket by increasing our electricity rates for products that are low value and do not hold up to their claims. It’s a scam.

    gallopingcamel says: June 28, 2013 at 4:38 am

    My apologies for taking so long to respond to your comment. It took a while for the enormity of what you said to sink in.

    Other than murdering its own citizens, one of the worse things that governments do is “Corporate Welfare”. It would be wonderful to think that it can’t happen here but Solyndra and thousands of similar scams say otherwise. What you have highlighted makes Solyndra look like pocket change. Will anyone be going to jail for this massive theft of taxpayer dollars? Nobody will even be indicted!

    If the “Fat Cats” at FP&L can safely ignore reports in Businessweek and the Washington Times nothing we can say here will make any difference. Next Era Energy will continue to laugh all the way to the bank.

    Given my analytical frame of mind here is an attempt to express the effect of this stinking corruption on a FP&L customer like me:

    Net pre-tax profit 2005-2009 = $7 billion
    Tax liability @ 35% rate = $2.5 billion
    Tax paid = $0.09 biilion
    Net saving = $ 2.5 billion (cf. Solyndra @ $ 450 million)

    Electrical power generated 2005-2009 = 450 TWh
    Sales price per TWh = $100 million
    Total FP&L sales 2005-2009 = $45 billion

    Net saving of tax = 2.5/45*100 = 5.6% of sales.

    If that saving had been passed on to me, I would be paying $0.0944/kWh for my electricity. Given that I am still paying $0.100/kWh it seems likely that someone else pocketed the $2.5 billion.

    • Thank you for this truly amazing post.

      There was a similar scheme in Britain a few years ago. It was devised by some tax geniuses at Barclays Bank who demonstrated to their wealthy clients how to generate massive amounts of cash out of thin air using nothing more than some cleaver accounting tricks and a particular provision in British tax regulations. This scheme caused so much scandal and embarrassment to all the parties concerned after the details were broadcast on national television that it was withdrawn by Barclays within hours.

  156. rather biblical? trying to appeal to the evangelicals?

    7 Nov: CBS Chicago: When You’re Shivering Next Week, Blame ‘Bombogenesis’
    Remember the “Polar Vortex”? That term refers to wind currents over the North and South poles; they had an unusually strong impact on the United States during the last winter.
    The slangy “Bombogenesis” describes a rapid drop in pressure that will occur to the north. The bombogenesis will create a ripple effect that sends artic air to the Chicago area.
    What’s that mean for us? It could make autumn feel more wintry than usual next week, CBS 2 Meteorologist says…
    The silver lining: If you’re a winter-sports enthusiast you may get an early skiing and snowboarding season, CBS 2’s Jeremy Ross reports.

  157. 9 Nov: Vox: What aliens can teach us about global warming
    Updated by Joseph Stromberg
    There’s no doubt that global warming on Earth is a human-driven trend.
    But what if the tendency of intelligent species to alter their planet’s climate was a more common phenomenon than we think?…
    That’s the idea put forth by astrophysicist Adam Frank and astrobiologist Woodruff Sullivan in an interesting new paper. “It’s a change in perspective,” Frank says. “What we’re saying is that what our species is going through right now, from an astrobiology perspective, is probably not unique. It probably happens all the time — and we can learn from that.”
    It’s a provocative way of looking at a familiar problem. I recently spoke to Frank to hear about the concept in greater detail…

    Wikipedia: Vox
    Founded in 2003 as SportsBlogs, Inc., by political strategist Jerome Armstrong, freelance writer Tyler Bleszinski, and Markos Moulitsas (creator of Daily Kos), the network now features over 300 sites with over 400 paid writers…


    ‘Each of the past three decades has been warmer than the last, and warmer than any decade since we started keeping records. Sea levels are rising. Arctic ice cover is shrinking. Crop yields are changing—more often than not, getting smaller. It has been getting wetter, and storms and heat waves are getting more intense.’

    Yes, dogs and cats sleeping together, major kitchen appliances behaving in unusual ways, the list goes on, and on, and on, and one…


    Yes, there’s good news. Sort of.

    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration isn’t expecting a repeat of the 2013-2014 season. Federal forecasters predicted last month that this winter will be fairly average without a lot of extreme conditions such as last year’s Arctic influx from the polar vortex.

    That doesn’t mean it won’t be cold, and other private weather forecasters are predicting a slightly cooler winter than NOAA. And, a reminder: NOAA didn’t predict the extreme low temperatures experienced last winter.

    From AP….Fed. forecasters predict a mild winter…private forecasters predict cool winter…NOAA did not predict last yr.cold…Who to believe…global warming will be blamed for either prodiction

  160. You may be amused to know that the villain in the new “interstellar” movie is a “Dr. Mann” -who gets caught faking a planet’s climate data to make it seem warmer than it really is. A cheap laugh is still a laugh.

  161. Anthony,

    I have heard a lot about the supposed northern expansion/movement of birds due to AGW. However, I have long believed it may be due to something else humans are doing; that is providing food year round at backyard feeders. This recent article by a hummingbird bander posits just such a possibility:

    “His theory is that the species [Anna’s Hummingbird], which thrives in urban environments with human helpers, is moving from coastal areas to Idaho expecting to find hummingbird feeders at the ready.”
    “This year we caught two juveniles in August,” he said, “the first documentation of juveniles in Idaho.”

    Another bander observes… “Key to capturing hummingbirds, she said, is to go where there is an established feeding site put up by humans that has had time to attract generations of hummingbirds.”

    • Another example of non-AGW human influence on northward range expansion of birds; this time Hooded Orioles:

      “Northward range expansion in recent decades, notably into Central Valley, and currently as far as Humboldt Co., apparently correlated with planting of fan palm and cultivation of numerous other ornamental and agricultural plants (Grinnell and Miller 1944, Small 1974, McCaskie et al. 1979, 1988, Garrett and Dunn 1981).”

  162. A new polar vortex spawned by Typhoon Nuri is pushing cold air down across the Midwest. The tip of the front is curling into central Colorado. In the last few hours, temps have dropped 20 degrees. I had to laugh to hear NPR downplaying the January-chill temps rolling into Minnesota, as “just weather”.

    Some forecasters call it an Arctic Front. Others say it’s the good old Polar Vortex, or simply an “intrusion.”

    Nothing to see. Move along. Meanwhile, the High expected for today in Colorado is 55, for tomorrow 25, for Wednesday 10 degrees.

  163. How about reviewing and perhaps linking to

    “In an attempt to assemble such a database, a team of scientists, have put together a website called that is searchable and encourages participation by the larger scientific community. With a critical mass of usage an organized system of post-publication review could improve both the process of scientific publication as well as the research that underlies those publications.”

  164. 10 Nov: UK Independent: Tom Bawden: UK carbon emissions: The stench of missed targets as the Coalition’s green credentials are ‘torn up and thrown out’
    The UK is set to miss key targets on carbon emissions, because too many of the country’s most polluting coal-fired power plants are set to stay open far longer than the Government had pledged, a new report warns.
    Promises to introduce policies that would force coal plants to close have not been fulfilled, says the report by Imperial College London…
    This means a significant portion of the hugely inefficient coal plants from the 1960s and 1970s – a major source of carbon emissions – are likely to keep operating into the 2030s, making it virtually impossible for the UK to meet key targets…
    Chris Todd, of the Campaign for Better Transport lobbying group, said: “The Government is tearing up its green credentials and throwing them out of the window. On the same day it announces a massive road-building programme, we also discover that dirty coal plants are going to be staying open for longer.”…
    ***Experts say the UK must reduce emissions from the power sector – which make up nearly half of the country’s total – to one tenth of today’s level if it is to meet its climate goals…

    ***”Experts say”!!!! what a nonsense.

    and they say EU leads the fight against CAGW!

    28 Sept: UK Independent: Tony Paterson: Green village to be bulldozed and mined for lignite in Germany’s quest for non-nuclear fuel
    Chancellor Angela Merkel’s plan to end Germany’s dependence on nuclear power by 2022 is set to bring about the destruction of Mr Kapelle’s farm house and the rest of Proschim’s buildings. More than 800 residents including some 400 from a neighbouring village will be resettled.
    Proschim is just one of a cluster of east German villages and farms set to make way for new lignite mines. The fossil fuel is intended to “bridge” a widening energy gap resulting from the closure of Germany’s nuclear power plants…
    In June the east German state of Brandenburg approved the state-owned Swedish energy giant Vattenfall’s plans to extend its five lignite mines. The company plans to mine 200 million tons of coal from the extended open-cast pits from 2027…
    Opponents argue that the region already has almost 40 billion tons of lignite reserves. They also point out that Vattenfall exports much of the energy from its German operation…

  165. QUT Business School’s School of Management finally gets what sceptics have been saying for years – CAGW is a scam!

    10 Nov: Niki Widdowson : “Carbon violence” underlies the green sheen of carbon offsets
    Queensland researchers have coined the term ‘carbon violence’ to describe the effects of G20 and other developed countries’ investments in African plantation forestry to offset carbon emissions in a report for US think tank, the Oakland Institute…
    Green Resources holds almost 12,000 hectares of Ugandan land, which has been planted with monocultural stands of trees to sequester or absorb carbon. The sequestered carbon is then sold via global markets to offset pollution by developed nations, with the Swedish Energy Agency a major buyer.
    Dr Richards said Green Resources claimed to have invested more than $125 million in plantation forestry in Africa, with some of those funds coming from the Norwegian and Finnish owned development finance institutions, Norfund and Finnfund…
    “But in many cases acquisition of land by foreign interests dispossesses local populations, which has profound impacts on the essentials needed for survival: food, water and shelter.
    “The real benefits accrue to those acquiring the land – the plantation forestry company and their investors who are all seeking a return on capital.
    “In interviews with 152 local villagers, environmental workers, company staff and journalists, it was found that up to 8000 subsistence farmers had been evicted from their land, with some subjected to physical violence by unknown security forces…
    Dr Richards said making poorer nations pay for the excesses of the wealthy-world carbon pollution was not ethical, particularly when it involved social upheaval, disruption to livelihoods, food insecurity and environmental degradation such as chemical pollution and biodiversity loss…
    “In addition, wealthy nations need to urgently act to reduce carbon emissions rather than outsource our problems to the global poor.”

  166. 10 Nov: Financial Times: Peabody sees reprieve from US carbon cuts push
    Lucy Hornby in Beijing
    Shares in Peabody Energy, the largest US coal producer, have risen 13 per cent since last Tuesday, when the Republicans won a sweeping victory in midterm elections for the Senate that secured the party full control of Congress.
    Mr Boyce said his company advocates building “supercritical” power plants worldwide that pollute less per unit of power produced than traditional plants. But he said the Environmental Protection Agency’s provisions requiring them also to be fitted with technology for carbon capture and storage technology, which isolates carbon dioxide emissions and stores them deep underground, is impractical and potentially very costly…
    Mr Boyce said any attempt to push the regulations through would have led to court challenges from the affected industries that would have delayed implementation by four or five years.
    “So you know, it was never going to happen in the near-term,” he said…
    China itself has unveiled plans to limit coal use in prosperous eastern cities while expanding coal mining, power generation and processing in the more remote western region. Peabody has plans to invest in one of those mines, near Hami, an oasis known for its cantaloupes in the western province of Xinjiang…

  167. “Geologists who didn’t warn a town about an impending earthquake are not murderers, an Italian appeals court ruled today.

    A 2012 decision that rocked the scientific world has been overturned, according to Italy’s Repubblica newspapers and confirmed by other Italian outlets. In that decision, six prominent geologists and one government worker were convicted of manslaughter for failing to notify the town of L’Aquila of a 2009 earthquake that killed at least 309 people. The scientists were originally sentenced to six years in prison and were to pay more than $10 million in damages.”

  168. sillier than ever!

    11 Nov: UK Daily Mail: Jonathan O’Callaghan: Global warming will SPEED UP after a pause, scientists warn: Climate temperature could rise faster than expected
    University of Washington and MIT scientists say Earth’s warming will pause
    But it will then undergo a rapid rise due to the amount of emitted CO2
    As the icecaps melt, more high-energy solar rays will be absorbed, which means that climate change will continue unabated
    Earth will experience a switch from long-wave to short-wave radiation

  169. #EarthInvades This is the comment 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko, it’s a furious beast. We’re about to land a probe the size of a dishwasher on it. To taste it. This is the kind of beastie that could destroy the planet Earth in an asteroid doomsday scenario, although this beastie isn’t scheduled to intersect with the Earth.

    “On Wednesday, at 3:35 a.m. Eastern time, the 220-pound lander, named Philae, is scheduled to detach from Rosetta and be pulled downward by the comet’s gravity. Signals from Rosetta will take nearly 30 minutes to travel more than 300 million miles to mission control in Darmstadt, Germany.

    Philae will be aimed at a landing site that covers about a third of a square mile; the area looks relatively smooth and clear of boulders but is still close to streams of dust and gas shooting off the surface.

    Seven hours later, give or take some minutes, Philae is to bump onto the surface. The comet, 2.5 miles wide, is so small and its gravity so slight that even after that long fall, Philae will be traveling no faster than walking pace.

    To keep the lander from bouncing, thrusters will fire for 15 seconds, pressing it against the surface, and a harpoon will shoot into the comet to anchor Philae.

    Both the European Space Agency and NASA, which contributed three instruments to the $275 million lander mission, will broadcast coverage on their websites.

    In this era of social media and anthropomorphized spacecraft, Philae and Rosetta have their own Twitter feeds: @Philae2014 and @ESA_Rosetta. “I’m so ready!” a Twitter post announced Sunday.

    Scientists hope that Philae and its 10 instruments will conduct 64 hours of work before its batteries drain.”


    The hypothesis and suggestion by the Appalachian Mountain Club that climate change and air pollutants impact New England’s alpine zone is contrasted by the results of a three years study by climatologists at the Mt Washington, NH observatory. According to the researchers, “Our results contrast with the predictions commonly suggested in the literature that the northeast’s sub-alpine and alpine ecosystems are immediately threatened by and are rapidly undergoing warming”.

    No global warming at Mt. Washington! Surprise, surprise. . .

  171. Anthony,
    Is the “polar vortex dip” presently affecting US weather in any way related to the current phase of the Pacific Multi-decadal Oscillation?

  172. Sanity warning: involves the UEA. But then again would seem to demonstrate CO² has nothing to do with the ‘warming’ of the Antartic

    Robot ‘dolphins’ reveal why Antarctic ice caps are melting: Deep-sea gliders show swirls of warm water reaching the surface

    The ‘gliders’ measure 6ft 6in (2 metres) and cost $240,000 (£151,300) each
    Built-in sensors track temperature and salinity in depths of the Weddell Sea
    Measurements reveal how vast eddies drive heat into shallower waters
    These swirls of water are being blamed for causing coastal ice to thaw
    Gliders can be left for months, and were remotely controlled from Norwich

    Read more:
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

  173. See this Purdue/Iowa State study on climate change opinions – scientists vs. farmers. I’ll side with the farmers. From the Science Daily press release: “More than 90 percent of the scientists and climatologists surveyed said they believed climate change was occurring, with more than 50 percent attributing climate change primarily to human activities.

    In contrast, 66 percent of corn producers surveyed said they believed climate change was occurring, with 8 percent pinpointing human activities as the main cause. A quarter of producers said they believed climate change was caused mostly by natural shifts in the environment, and 31 percent said there was not enough evidence to determine whether climate change was happening or not.”

    Press releases:

    Article (preliminary PDF):

  174. 11 Nov: Reason: Scott Shackford: Solar Plant Wants to Pay Off Massive Government Loan with Massive Government Grant
    American taxpayers are on the hook for the Ivanpah solar project out in the California Mojave Desert close to the border of Nevada. The massive plant received $1.6 billion in loan guarantees from the Department of Energy to build it, out of a total cost of about $2.2 billion.
    The plant went online in December of last year. After operating for most of 2014, the plant seems to have hit a significant problem. It’s only producing about a quarter of the power it has promised…
    Taxpayers were obligated to gamble their money with the loan, may possibly have to give money to pay back the loan, and then Californians have to pay for the electricity the company produces…
    The Ivanpah solar electric generating plant is owned by Google and renewable energy giant NRG, which are responsible for paying off their federal loan. If approved by the U.S. Treasury, the two corporations will not use their own money, but taxpayer cash to pay off 30 percent of the cost of their plant, but taxpayers will receive none of the millions in revenues the plant will generate over the next 30

  175. L.E. Joiner – the MSM are going wild….with exaggerations, of course:

    12 Nov: Guardian: United States and China reach landmark carbon emissions deal – live
    The world’s two largest economies strike historic, ambitious deal to cap carbon emissions and increase use of renewable energy.
    1 min ago: Domestic reaction in the United States is still rolling in, but already Republicans have indicated they will oppose the targets identified in today’s deal…
    8 mins ago: Al Gore: “A major step forward”
    Former US Vice-President and climate-change campaigner Al Gore has called China’s pledge to began reducing its carbon emissions by 2030 “a signal of groundbreaking progress”…
    12 mins ago: Greenpeace: Announcement should be “the floor and not the ceiling” of climate action
    However, both sides have yet to reach the goal of a truly game-changing climate relationship. There is a clear expectation of more ambition from these two economies whose emissions trajectories define the global response to climate change. Today’s announcements should only be the floor and not the ceiling of enhanced actions…
    30 mins ago: “A major milestone in the US-China relationship”
    China will aim to reach peak carbon dioxide emissions by “around 2030” and strive to achieve the target earlier.
    The United States will slash emissions by 26-28% from 2005 levels by 2025 – far beyond the existing target of 17% of 2005 levels by 2020.
    China will seek to increase the share of non-fossil fuels in its country’s energy mix to 20% by 2030.

    china will do blah blah IF POSSIBLE. & the promises aren’t great anyway.

    12 Nov: Guardian: China and US strike deal on carbon cuts in push for global climate pact
    Lenore Taylor, Guardian Australia political editor, Tania Branigan in Beijing and agencies
    China, the biggest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world, has agreed to cap its output by 2030 or earlier if possible. Previously China had only ever pledged to reduce the rapid rate of growth in its emissions. Now it has also promised to increase its use of energy from zero-emission sources to 20% by 2030…
    Tao Wang, climate scholar at the Tsinghua-Carnegie Center for Global Policy in Beijing, said: “It is a very good sign for both countries and injects strong momentum [into negotiations] but the targets are not ambitious enough and there is room for both countries to negotiate an improvement.
    “That figure isn’t high because China aims to reach about 15% by 2020, so it is only a five percentage point increase in 10 years, and given the huge growth in renewables it should be higher.”…

  176. anthony -[he is away fishing right now . . mod]

    on the eve of the G20 and the exaggerated MSM coverage of the US/China announcements re “climate action”, Australian media is in full CAGW frenzy…..while Joanne Nova’s website is almost impossible to access. i feel strongly her website is under attack.

    her latest major thread is:

    Desal: no water provided but Victorian families pay $450pa for bikies and drunks

    this is the politics involved:

    12 Nov: SMH: Labor, Greens seize on US-China climate deal to attack Coalition policy on eve of G20
    by James Massola, Lisa Cox, Peter Hannam

    12 Nov: SMH: Latika Bourke: Renewable energy target in limbo as Clive Palmer backs Labor
    But the opposition defended its decision on Wednesday, saying the Coalition would not budge from its plan to nearly halve the amount of clean energy mandated by law, and accusing Labor of trying to embarrass the government ahead of G20…
    “Good on ‘em,” Mr Palmer told Fairfax Media.
    “We’re not doing a deal either,” he said…
    “I can only assume that the Labor Party is putting politics ahead of policy. And we’re a bit perplexed that they would roll out this letter in the eve of the G20,” Mr Macfarlane told the ABC…
    Opposition Leader Bill Shorten defended his move and said Labor had “tried its best” to be bipartisan but it became clear Tony Abbott is not “fair dinkum” about renewable energy…
    John Grimes from the Solar Council said Labor risked breaking its own election commitment if it had helped the government water down the RET. “No deal is better than a bad deal,” Mr Grimes told reporters in Canberra.
    “What this means is that we move from a negotiating position to a campaigning position,” he said and vowed to defeat the government on environmental policy.
    The Climate Institute says the new “climate policy chaos” will embarrass Australia on the world stage as it prepares to host the G20 in Brisbane this weekend.

  177. ***so the coal supply is “abundant and secure”, but can’t relieve the energy “stress” because of CAGW!

    12 Nov: News24: AFP: Global energy system under stress
    Paris – With fossil fuels set to meet most of the increased global demand for energy, the IEA warned on Wednesday that climate change targets are at risk and conflicts could still wreak havoc with supplies.
    “The global energy system is in danger of falling short of the hopes and expectations placed upon it”, the International Energy Agency said in its World Energy Outlook 2014 report.
    The Paris-based body, which advises industrial oil consuming nations, forecasted global energy demand will grow 37% by 2040, with fossil fuels key to meeting that increased demand despite concerns about global warming…
    While oil prices are currently at four-year lows, it sees them rising as demand increases from 90 million barrels per day in 2013 to 104mbd in 2040…
    The IEA sees the fastest rate of growth among fossil fuels for natural gas, where demand should increase by more than half, becoming the leading fuel in the OECD energy mix by 2030…
    ***As for coal, while the supply is abundant and secure, “its future use is constrained by measures to tackle pollution and reduce CO2 emissions”, it said…
    Global nuclear capacity will nevertheless increase by almost 60%, with China alone accounting for 45% of the growth…
    It pointed to renewable energy technologies to help fill the shortfall in power generation as they are gaining ground, helped by global subsidies amounting to $120bn in 2013.
    The share of renewable, wind, solar, hydropower, biofuels increases most in the OECD major industrialised nations, reaching 37% of power generation, the IEA said

    oh, in China, coal production is up!

    10 Nov: Reuters: Fayen Wong: China Oct coal output up 2.5 pct on year – industry website
    China’s coal production rose 2.5 percent from a year ago to 330 million tonnes in October, according to an industry website that cited data from the National Bureau of Statistics.
    Total output in the first ten months of 2014 stood at 3.42 billion tonnes, up 0.3 percent from a year ago, according to website
    October’s production was up 13 percent from a month ago, suggesting some previously-shut mines were taking advantage of the recent rise in domestic coal prices to re-start operations, traders said.

  178. India – coal is king:

    12 Nov: Reuters: Krishnan Das: Goyal says may stop thermal coal imports in 2-3 yrs
    India, the world’s third-largest buyer of overseas coal, may be able to stop imports of power-generating thermal coal in the next three years as state behemoth Coal India steps up production, Power and Coal Minister Piyush Goyal said on Wednesday.
    Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has asked Coal India, the world’s largest miner of the fuel, to more than double its output to 1 billion tonnes by 2019 to feed existing and upcoming power plants…
    Around 60 of India’s 103 power plants had enough coal for less than a week’s usage as of Nov. 2 due to lower supplies from Coal India.
    Imports of coal have been surging as a result, equating to about 1 percent of India’s economy.
    Shipments rose to 168.4 million tonnes last fiscal year, and the government estimated earlier this year that the domestic shortage would range between 185 and 265 million tonnes by 2016/17.
    And some analysts were sceptical the country would be able to end imports soon.
    “India’s reliance on imports is not going away anytime soon,” said Prakash Duvvuri, head of research at consultancy OreTeam.

  179. Found this on yahoo science page and a half hour later it was removed.

    I follow WUWT but am not an expert in the field. Could one of the experts here take on this article and the underlying paper. I have read the article twice and it does not sit well with me.

    If CO2 is effecting increased climactic absorption of short wave radiation while outbound long wave radiation is increasing then sensitivity to variations in solar output should be higher than the catestrophic AGW are admitting.

  180. Not sure if this is a story of interest to WUWT readers…

    “Hackers from China breached the federal weather network recently, forcing cybersecurity teams to seal off data vital to disaster planning, aviation, shipping and scores of other crucial uses, officials said. ”

    “NOAA officials also would not say whether the attack removed material or inserted malicious software in its system, which is used by civilian and military forecasters in the U.S. and also feeds weather models at the main centers for Europe and Canada.”

  181. 12 Nov: Bloomberg Editorial: A Breakthrough for Climate Protection
    In themselves, the targets set today are not a great leap forward. China had already expected to start lowering its carbon-dioxide emissions by 2030, and to raise its share of energy from renewable sources; given rapid growth in the sector, getting to the promised 20 percent shouldn’t be impossible. For his part, U.S. President Barack Obama had already set in motion the automobile standards and power-plant regulations that will enable the U.S. to reduce net greenhouse-gas emissions 26 percent to 28 percent below 2005 levels in the next 10 years. That both countries’ targets are realistic also makes them more likely to be met…
    Another laggard is Australia…
    To bring everyone else into the ***game, developed nations need to fulfill their pledges to mobilize, by 2020, $100 billion a year to help poorer countries reduce emissions and adapt to flooding, drought and other effects of climate change. A three-year effort to kick-start this financing, which finished in 2012, netted a mere $10 billion a year. Politically, countries such as India can’t commit to hard emissions targets without a reasonable expectation that pledged funds will materialize…

    12 Nov: Hindustan Times: Chetan Chauhan: US-China climate deal a surprise for India
    The deal will also be a talking point at the G-20 summit in Australia starting from November 15…but the developing world, including India, was not enthused with the secret agreement, saying it was not enough to have a treaty in Paris to limit the increase in global temperature by 2 degrees by the turn of the century.
    “The original base level for reducing emissions for rich nations was 1990 and not 2005 as announced by the US. If one makes calculations, the actual emission reduction by the US will be negligible to the 1990 level,” a senior Indian climate negotiator said, who was unwilling to be quoted as India has not officially reacted on the deal…

  182. US Weather System and Satellite Network Hacked
    “Hackers attacked the U.S. weather system in October, causing a disruption in satellite feeds and several pivotal websites. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA, said that four of its websites were hacked in recent weeks. To block the attackers, government officials were forced to shut down some of its services. This explains why satellite data was mysteriously cut off in October, as well as why the National Ice Center website and others were down for more than a week. During that time, federal officials merely stated a need for “unscheduled maintenance.” Still, NOAA spokesman Scott Smullen insisted that the aftermath of the attack “did not prevent us from delivering forecasts to the public.” Little more is publicly known about the attack, which was first revealed by The Washington Post. It’s unclear what damage, if any, was caused by the hack. But hackers managed to penetrate what’s considered one of the most vital aspects of the U.S. government. The nation’s military, businesses and local governments all rely on nonstop reports from the U.S. weather service.”

  183. Thaughts on the climate change/AGW problem and solutions.
    To me it is like the solution came before the problem (if the problem at all has materialized).
    Ever since all the work has been focused to find the problem, which has not happened yet.The only development was to rename AGW to Climate Change, and that makes it even more diffuse.

  184. Researchers ‘appalled’ as EU chief scientist role is axed

    “Researchers across Europe have expressed dismay at the scrapping of the role of EU Chief Scientific Adviser (CSA).
    The EU Commission confirmed that the position held by Prof Anne Glover since 2012, would not be extended.
    Prof Glover had incurred the wrath of green groups with her open support for genetically modified crops.
    The final decision came on the day Europe’s scientists were celebrating the success of the Rosetta mission.
    Appointed to the role by the the former head of the EU Commission, Jose Manuel Barroso, the job was to “provide independent expert advice on any aspect of science, technology and innovation as requested by the President”.

    But Prof Glover, a former chief scientist for Scotland, ran into trouble with her views on GM.
    In contrast to the official EU position, Ms Glover said that opposing the technology was “a form of madness”.
    During the Summer, green groups published a letter to the incoming President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, urging him to scrap the role.
    The claimed that the position was “unaccountable, intransparent and controversial”.

    The CSA, according to the letter, “presented one-sided, partial opinions in the debate on the use of genetically modified organisms in agriculture, repeatedly claiming that there was a scientific consensus about their safety”.
    Despite strong support from scientific bodies, Prof Glover’s mandate expired at the end of the Barroso presidency – and Jean-Claude Juncker has decided to formally close the Bureau of European Policy Advisers which included the CSA.

    Ironically, the final decision was rolled out as European scientists were celebrating the dramatic landing of the Philae lander on the Comet 67/P.
    “Today is such a special day and typifies the Europe I love,” Prof Glover tweeted.
    “Big ideas, big minds, big hearts, big ambition, big future.”
    The axing of the job drew the ire of British scientists in particular.”

  185. More doom+gloom zaniness from Prof Michio Kaku. This time it’s about COLD weather. If nothing else, we can use it as an answer, pointing to his unreliability, next time he makes a thermagadon prediction.


    Comment from one Danny Gallegos:
    How is it that most of the world and now China understands the effects of pollution on climate, yet most republican Politicians ‘ don’t understand the science’?

    Pollution? Is the meme being changed once again? What happened to global warming? What happened to climate change?

    Or or we following the SC’s lead in declaring CO2 a pollutant?

    I don’t even know how to address the convoluted logic that passes for reasoned thinking in the minds of Warmistas.

  187. the limitations of solar!

    14 Nov: Scientists: Comet lander Philae ends up in cliff’s shadow, posing a problem for solar panels
    BERLIN (AP) — A shadow was cast — literally — across Europe’s historic mission to land on and explore a comet. Scientists said Thursday the landing craft not only bounced twice, it also came to rest next to a cliff that’s blocking sunlight from its solar panels…
    With just a day or two left before the lander’s primary battery is exhausted, scientists were considering what acrobatic maneuvers to risk in order to get the solar panels out of the shadows so they can keep Philae going for a few more months…
    The lander’s solar panels were designed to provide an extra hour of battery life each day after that, but this may not be possible now.
    “We see that we get less solar power than we planned for,” said Koen Geurts of the lander team.
    “This, of course, has an impact on our … capabilities to conduct science for an extended period of time,” he said. “Unfortunately this is not a situation that we were hoping for.”…
    “We are just in the shadow of a cliff,” Bibring said, adding that photos indicate the cliff could be just a few yards (meters) away. “We are in a shadow permanently, and that is part of the problem.”…

  188. “The missing piece of the climate puzzle”

    Interesting research from MIT was announced this week. Appears to says CO2 will not trap significant heat, and that the most of the warming will be from changes in albedo. But raises several questions.

    A quote:

    “Will we actually ever see the longwave trapping effects of CO2 in future observations? I think the answer is probably no.”

  189. Nye speaks for “everyone”!

    14 Nov: 9News: AAP: Bill Nye chimes in on G20 climate talks
    A leading US science and television personality has criticised the Australian government for not speaking up on climate change at the G20 Summit.
    Bill Nye, known as the science guy, also believes Australia must re-introduce a tax on carbon to curb emissions…
    ***”Everyone hopes that the other 19 of the G20 will lead the way.”…
    But Nye believes taxing all users of carbon – including consumers – is the only way to go.
    “The interesting thing is that the rich people use more carbon so they would pay a higher fee,” Nye said…

    ***and, in case u see the pics being flashed around the world, note the special interests of the organiser, Eden Tehan: Heads in the sand at Bondi – our message to Tony Abbott on his climate change policies!
    BY EDEN TEHAN, organiser
    And although we’re still waiting for the official ruling from Guinness, there’s a good chance we may have had more than 650 of us to establish a new world record: most number of people burying their heads in the sand simultaneously!…
    *** Why did I organise this event? As a solar PV entrepreneur frustrated by our government’s shortsightedness with regards to all things renewable energy, I am embarrassed and disheartened that Australia is taking no action to address the most significant global issue of our time…
    As images of the event make their way around world tonight, the message to Tony Abbott and his Government will be as clear as the opinion of 97% of world’s climate scientists — this is what we think of your inaction on climate change!
    With the announcement yesterday that the US and China are committed to working together to reduce emissions and with our event at – and in! — Bondi Beach, it’s clear that intelligent climate action is an absolute must if we are to restore our planet sooner rather than never…

  190. hmmm! BBC reports only 200+ at the bondi heads in the sand stunt. no doubt they would have been happy to report more, so not sure Eden Tehan got his Guinness Record:

    13 Nov: BBC: G20 protesters bury heads in the sand on Bondi Beach
    More than 200 protesters buried their heads in the sands of Bondi Beach on Thursday in a demonstration over climate change inaction…

    some more on the organiser, Eden Tehan:

    .pdf: Infigen Energy Community Newsletter
    The renewable energy precinct is growing
    The Project
    In July 2012 Infigen was granted a planning approval from the Palerang Council for the development of a solar photovoltaic (PV) and energy storage facility of up to 1 megawatt capacity.
    The People
    You might have seen the Project Manager Eden Tehan roaming around town, joining the local library or pulling a rabbit out of the freezer at the Bungendore Food Lover’s Market. Eden studied PV engineering at the UNSW before joining Infigen in 2012…—April-2013-ea2268bb-2dda-4c09-bfd9-f32c62a9df5a-0.pdf

  191. 13 Nov: CBS: All 50 States Will See Freezing Temperatures
    Parts of Michigan’s Upper Peninsula were buried in more than 3 feet of snow on Wednesday, with more snowforecast through the weekend, along with temperatures that dipped in the 20s and 30s. Up to 18 inches fell in northern Wisconsin, while parts of central Minnesota saw more than 16 inches of snow…
    Meteorologists are adamant the weather isn’t because of the polar vortex, a giant upper air pattern that normally pens in cold air in the Arctic in the winter. Instead, they say it’s being pushed in by a different weather phenomenon more related to the remnants of a powerful typhoon.
    “The polar vortex itself has not moved south. It’s still in the Arctic where it always is,” said National Weather Service spokeswoman Susan Buchanan.
    Whatever the case, the cold is expected to linger…

  192. Dont know if you guys have seen this yet, but its worth a look.
    From the University of Houston, my Alma Mater, comes this science article

    “We developed a molecule that self-assembles into a structure that can capture these greenhouse vapors to the tune of 75 percent by weight,” Miljanić said. “This molecule could be used to capture Freons from disposed refrigeration systems, for example, or to concentrate them prior to analysis of their content.”

    If this actually works, the alarmists wont like it one bit.
    Think about it, We can continue to use fossil fuels AND scrub the atmosphere with this new compound, what need is there to meet any reduction.

    Game over.

  193. If you are wondering why no one has commented on Willis’s latest post, it may be because there does not seem to be any mechanism to leave a comment for that post.

    Unless it is just me …

  194. This is interesting:

    Got questions about climate change? Ask the President’s science advisor.

    Dr. John P. Holdren, Director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, wants to answer any questions that you have about climate change — what it means, how bad it actually is, and what we can do to fight it

    Not sure what that link will do but it’s what’s in my browser

  195. such precision? well, not quite!

    13 Nov: Carbon Brief: Robert McSweeney: US lightning strikes to increase under climate change
    New research, published in Science, suggests that lightning strikes in the US will increase by 12 per cent for every degree of temperature rise, if greenhouse gases continue to be emitted at current levels…
    But working out how lightning will be affected by climate change is difficult because climate models don’t simulate lightning directly…
    Romps, D.M. et al. (2014) Projected increase in lightning strikes in the Unites States due to global warming, Science, 10.1126/science.1259100

    Obama’s great generosity? well, not quite:

    14 Nov: Guardian: Suzanne Goldenberg: G20: Obama to pledge $2.5bn to help poor countries on climate change
    Additional reporting by Lenore Taylor
    Exclusive: In a one-two punch, America plans to pledge at least $2.5bn and as much as $3bn over the next four years to help poor countries invest in clean energy and cope with rising seas and extreme weather, according to those briefed by administration officials…
    The ballpark figure of $2.5bn to $3bn is not that much higher than the $2bn pledged to climate finance by George Bush in 2008…

    it’s all smoke & mirrors…


    ‘Earning Our Children’s Trust’ – Hansen et al

    ‘Accordingly, climate scientists led by one of us (Hansen) have now filed a “Friend of the Court” brief urging the Supreme Court to decide the issue. In it, the scientists note that the level of atmospheric CO2 functions as the long-wave control knob on the planet’s thermostat, so that our decisions today will determine whether or not the climate system remains viable for our children and future generations.’

    I guess the control knob is a bit loose. Maybe something else is also a bit loose.

  197. And just in case anyone should ask, I affirm. I affirm that climate changes, and challenge anyone to prove otherwise. If that makes me an Affirmer, so be it.

  198. Mr. Watts,

    You are probably aware of the new study by Purdue University comparing climate scientists with farmers views on climate change

    However everyone seems to have missed the lead. The study which interviewed close to 7,000 folks found that more than 90 percent of the scientists and climatologists surveyed said they believed climate change was occurring, with more than 50 percent attributing climate change primarily to human activities.

    That means some number close to 50% of climate scientists do NOT attribute climate change primarily to human activities.

    It’s 50/50, half and half, in short no consensus.

    The articles I have read on this study seem to miss that glaring finding.

  199. New research on Mars weather promises to advance scientists’ understanding of the dynamics of Earth’s own atmosphere – and could provide insights into the weather of Venus, Saturn’s moon Titan, and possibly the gas giants Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune.

    The new study finds a three-part pattern applies to atmospheric conditions on Mars. The results also show that the sun plays a major role in determining macroweather. Weather, which changes day-to-day due to constant fluctuations in the atmosphere, and climate, which varies over decades, are familiar. More recently, a third regime, called “macroweather,” has been used to describe the relatively stable regime between weather and climate. The findings indicate that weather on Mars can be predicted with some skill up to only two days in advance, compared to Earth’s 10 days.
    The scientists chose to study Mars for its wealth of data with which to test their theory that a transitional “macroweather” regime exists on other planets. They used information collected from Viking – a Mars lander mission during the 1970s and 1980s — and more recent data from a satellite orbiting Mars.

    By taking into account how the sun heats Mars, as well as the thickness of the planet’s atmosphere, the scientists predicted that Martian temperature and wind would fluctuate similarly to Earth’s – but that the transition from weather to macroweather would take place over 1.8 Martian days (about two Earth days), compared with a week to 10 days on Earth.

    “Our analysis of the data from Mars confirmed this prediction quite accurately,” said Shaun Lovejoy, a physics professor at McGill University in Montreal and lead author of the paper. “This adds to evidence, from studies of Earth’s atmosphere and oceans, that the sun plays a central role in shaping the transition from short-term weather fluctuations to macroweather.”

    Co-author Professor Jan-Peter Muller from the UCL Mullard Space Science Laboratory, said: “We’re going to have a very hard time predicting the weather on Mars beyond two days given what we have found in weather records there, which could prove tricky for the European lander and rover!”

    Image at the top of the page shows the Valles Marineris – which some scientists believe may have been carved by glaciers. A growing body of evidence points to the fact that water once flowed on the planet.

    S. Lovejoy, J.-P. Muller, J.P. Boisvert, “On Mars too, expect macroweather,” Geophysical Research Letters, Nov. 13, 2014. DOI: 10.1002/2014GL061861

  200. google G20 + climate change and then google G20 on its own and u will see the MSM has written about little else other than CAGW. it’s an obsession of the MSM, which appear to be unable to write about anything else these days:

    15 Nov: Australian: Sid Maher: G20 summit: Obama puts climate change on agenda with $3bn pledge
    The US President used a speech in Brisbane today at the University of Queensland to push the world to do more on climate change.
    His comments before the start of the G20 meeting came as United Nations secretary-general Ban Ki Moon described climate change as the “defining issue of our times’’.
    Australia has resisted putting climate change on the G20 agenda, arguing it is an economic forum, there is a need to lift world growth, and there are other forums to discuss climate change.
    But Mr Moon said: “Climate change is the defining issue of our times, therefore it is only natural that the G20 leaders should focus on this.”…
    Greens Leader Christine Milne said President Obama’s realism on global warming had shown up the “small-minded’’ Australian leader.
    “Barack Obama has shown just how small and last century Tony Abbott is,” Senator Milne said.
    “The G20 is meant to be addressing the overwhelming problems of our age but Tony Abbott is showing what a small minded and insignificant player he is by whining about domestic politics instead.
    “It beggars belief that Tony Abbott has made such a fool of himself, boasting about abolishing an emissions trading scheme in front of a room of people who are committed to taking action on global warming.’’…

    also from Obama at Uni of Qld, where the students hold him in awe:

    15 Nov: PerthNow: G20 Brisbane 2014: Ban Ki-moon puts climate change on agenda
    by:Jennifer Rajca, with wires From: News Corp Australia
    Obama: “Here in the Asia Pacific nobody has more at stake when it comes to thinking about and then acting on climate change,” he told the audience, to applause.
    “Here a climate that increases in temperature will mean more extreme and frequent storms, more flooding, rising seas that submerge Pacific Islands.
    “Here in Australia it means longer droughts, more wildfires…

  201. Now it’s being struck by lightning we should be very afraid of.
    CNN 11/15/14 Your chance of being struck by lightning is climbing, climate scientist says

    Science 14 November 2014:
    Vol. 346 no. 6211 pp. 851-854
    DOI: 10.1126/science.1259100

    Projected increase in lightning strikes in the United States due to global warming

    David M. Romps1,*,
    Jacob T. Seeley1,
    David Vollaro2,
    John Molinari2

  202. pushy?

    16 Nov: Age: Mark Kenny: G20 summit: Barack Obama turns up the heat
    Fairfax Media understands that climate change will now be specifically mentioned in the final G20 communique,
    including a reference to the responsibility of member nations to take material action. That represents a substantial win for Mr Obama,
    who has succeeded in making the G20 summit address the issue irrespective of the reluctance of the host…
    He directly linked climate change to bushfires…
    Obama’s pivot to Asia: “Day in, day out, steadily, deliberately, we will continue to deepen our engagement using every element of our power,” he said.

  203. Sea ice whine and cheese parties are so last year and no longer the fad of the decade. It has gotten so bad that the latest news talks quite a bit about models, leaving the facts to fade into the background. Since facts aren’t glamorously displaying catastrophe in Cecil B. De Mille big screen style, the only thing left are models. As a result, this issue has several areas that need scrutiny. Worth an article.

    • If you’ve been following speed and drift of the 3+ meter ice over the last month you’ll see an interesting drama which is about to emerge over this Arctic winter.

      The Bering Strait is one of the most significant keys to Arctic Sea Ice formation or loss. Multiyear ice has now drifted into the Beaufont Sea. The result will be more than interesting to watch over the next few months!

      Rapid sea ice formation vs rapid loss due to salinity from the Kelvin Wave this year.

  204. Hello Anthony!
    Eija-Riitta Korhola defended his doctoral thesis on the Kyoto protocol, University of Helsinki, 11/15/2014, yesterday.

    Who she is?

    I wrote a short blog article about defense of the dissertation. The text is in Finnish, but I remember you wrote a few words in Finnish about a year ago (-;

    Here are links to English-language sources:

    First link is the abstract as normal Html-page and second is the whole dissertation as PDF-file.

    The dissertation is more about climate policy, but also climate science with philosophical level.
    Maybe you can ask Eija-Riitta Korhola to write a guest writer on your blog?
    Or write your own about this unique subject?

  205. ***unbelievable – the aussie govt now has to contend with an obama convert from within their own party, who just happens to have “significan natural gas resources”!

    17 Nov: Age: AAP: Barnett at odds with PM on coal
    Environment Minister Greg Hunt has defended g
    overnment plans to address climate change after calls by a Liberal premier for Australia to be bolder on emissions reduction targets.
    West Australian premier Colin Barnett came away from hearing US president Barack Obama’s speak in Brisbane at the weekend convinced it was a call to arms.
    “I think that we can be bolder in Australia, including in WA,” he told The West Australian newspaper.
    “I think all of us do need to lift their game.”…
    “The most effective thing that Australia can do is to ensure that more of our new power generation is at least gas-fired and not coal,” Mr Barnett said…
    ***WA has significant natural gas resources.
    Mr Abbott has reiterated his strong support for coal-fired power in both Australia and the world.
    “Sure it’s important to protect the environment but we’ve also got to raise living standards,” he told Macquarie Radio

  206. Reported in a number of papers this morning here in the UK.

    They may even get it right for once:-)

    Britain could be facing one of the wettest winters ever warns Met Office amid claims conditions are right for series of powerful Atlantic storms.
    After a mild October much of the country has been hit by heavy rain.
    Met Office three-month outlook suggests more wet weather is to come.
    Weather fronts coming from the Atlantic will bring stormy conditions to UK.
    Temperatures are likely to remain mild, but could get colder in January.

    Read more:

  207. “U.S. Lightning Strikes May Increase 50% Due to Global Warming” reads the latest post by Jeff Masters, proprietor of the Weather Underground website:


    ‘The costs and death toll from lightning-caused fires in the U.S. and Canada’
    ‘Death and damages due to direct lightning strikes’
    ‘Lightning-caused forest fires may increase at a lesser rate’
    ‘Increased lightning will create more ozone pollution and more global warming’

    The article is full of scary snapshots of lightning, brush fires and such. Some look like they’ve been enhanced to increase their scariness.

    Don’t bother verifying these increasing lightning trends yourself. The 50% target won’t kick in until 2100. I guess Masters is hoping we’ll all be dead by then. Think of the children.

  208. From this morning’s E&ETV interview. Follow the money.

    IETA’s Forrister talks next steps for U.S.-China agreement, EPA emissions plan
    Aired: Monday, November 17, 2014
    What impact will last week’s climate agreement between the United States and China have on global emissions reductions and the path toward the next binding international treaty? During today’s OnPoint, Dirk Forrister, president and CEO of the International Emissions Trading Association, discusses the details of the agreement and the steps each country will need to take to reach its targets. He also weighs in on the legal defensibility of U.S. EPA’s Clean Power Plan.


    ‘Hillary, Please Lead on Climate Change’

    Prayers to Hillarity:

    ‘We know if Hillary runs, women will be the cornerstone of her campaign. Well, climate change is a women’s issue. It’s a mother’s issue. As Moms Clean Air Force head Dominique Browning writes, “No politician wants to make a mother angry. And nothing makes us angrier than threats to the little (and big) ones we love so dearly.”‘

    No further comment is necessary. There is no known cure for stupidity.

  210. Collapse of Oil prices.

    Oil prices have collapsed by at least 25% since this time last year due to North American expansion of the use of Nat Gas and new oil drilling operations. Saudi Arabia has responded by lowering its prices… the world will follow. Oil must stay above ~$75 a barrel to justify continued USA new drilling operations. $75.82 is today’s price.

    The financial argument for all alternative power generation has caved in.

    I anticipate a rash of chapter 11 filings for solar, biomass, wind, and gerbil generation endeavors. I expect Executive Office doubling down on “green” projects, notwithstanding.

  211. Anyone heard anything about this? “Open Science Peer Review Oath” :

    “One of the foundations of the scientific method is to be able to reproduce experiments and corroborate the results of research that has been done before. However, with the increasing complexities of new technologies and techniques, coupled with the specialisation of experiments, reproducing research findings has become a growing challenge. Clearly, scientific methods must be conveyed succinctly, and with clarity and rigour, in order for research to be reproducible. Here, we propose steps to help increase the transparency of the scientific method and the reproducibility of research results: specifically, we introduce a peer-review oath and accompanying manifesto.”

    “The proposed manifesto aspires to facilitate this goal by making transparency, reproducibility and citizen-scientist engagement (with the knowledge-creation and dissemination processes) the default parameters for performing sound research.”

  212. Distributed Electronic Cosmic-Ray Observatory

    How does the DECO app work?
    Screen shot of the DECO app
    Screen shot of the DECO app

    DECO works by recording a camera image, called a sample, once every 1-2 seconds. The app analyzes the image to determine bright pixels.

    If enough bright pixels are found, the sample is considered a candidate for a high-energy particle interaction. A second analysis performs more thorough follow-up processing to determine if the candidate should be considered an event. Many events are due to cosmic-ray muons, but DECO can also detect electrons, gamma rays, and alpha particles (helium nuclei) produced by the decay of trace amounts of radioactive elements that occur naturally in the environment and in the materials of the phone.

    Only a small fraction of the samples turn out to be candidates, and a fraction of these are classified as events. For a … [go too URL to read the whole project]

  213. anthony –

    some goodies for a thread to welcome home your “historic climate change” president!

    17 Nov: Accuweather: Harsh Cold to Freeze Northeast, Set Records in South
    The coldest air since last winter, now over the Plains and Midwest, will blast into the East during the first half of this week…
    Bone-chilling nights will be followed up by frosty cold days with highs struggling to reach the 20-degree mark over the regions on Monday and Tuesday. Some locations in the Central states are forecast to stay below 20 F until Wednesday afternoon, including Minneapolis.
    Temperatures this low can make it dangerous for outdoors activities if you are not wearing the proper clothing…

    17 Nov: USA Today: Novem-brrr: Record cold roars into East, South
    Record cold temperatures will plunge through much of the country on Tuesday, bringing subfreezing temperatures to about 200 million Americans from the Midwest to East to South.
    Frigid air — which originated in Siberia — is rocketing all the way to the Gulf Coast, where record low temperatures are possible both Tuesday and Wednesday mornings…
    In unusual weather for mid-November, as of Monday, snow covered more than half of the USA, according to the National Weather Service…

    can’t imagine the american people will be too keen on the white house trying to reduce the temperature of the earth.


    The University of Queensland is offering a course, Making Sense of Climate Science Denial, set to start on March 10. The course instructor for “Denial 101X” is John Cook, lead author of the 2013 paper asserting a “97.1 consensus” that humans are causing global warming. If you are not familiar with that much-refuted furphy, follow this link to watch Cook selling his bill of goods.

    Last Saturday the university played host to Barack Obama, who received an ovation for urging “a strong global climate agreement next year.” The climate-denial course at the university is a free global “MOOC” (Massive Online Open Course) offering lectures by Cook and 11 of his associates. These lecturers include seven of the nine people who co-authored his paper on “the 97% consensus”. The same seven were also among the 20 or so raters of 11,944 abstracts for the consensus paper.


  215. when even CAGW-invested Bloomberg publishes the following, there may indeed be a problem!

    17 Nov: Bloomberg/Businessweek: Harry R. Weber: EPA Power Plan Risks Blackouts, Higher Costs, Grid Operator Says
    Texas will see big coal unit retirements, higher electricity bills, weaker transmission reliability and a greater risk of blackouts if a government plan to cut emissions from power plants is implemented as proposed, the state’s grid operator said.
    The Electric Reliability Council of Texas Inc.’s analysis, posted on its website today, estimates the impact the Environmental Protection Agency’s Clean Air Act regulation will have on the state’s power generation…
    The North American Electric Reliability Corp., a not-for-profit group that assures adequate power reserves to keep the electric grid functioning, has urged EPA to consider delaying the first deadline of its plan…
    EPA says there have been no instances of lights going out because of the Clean Air Act. Liz Purchia, a spokeswoman, said in a Nov. 13 e-mail that any rate increase is “dwarfed by huge benefits” to public health. She said today the agency is reviewing Ercot’s analysis…
    Ercot said the EPA carbon emission reduction plan will force the shutdown of 3,300 to 8,700 megawatts of coal-plant capacity, and will cause consumer energy costs to rise by as much as 20 percent by 2020. The estimate excludes the costs associated with transmission upgrades and new capacity…
    The proposal may result in transmission reliability issues and will strain the grid’s ability to integrate new intermittent renewable generation, Ercot said in the analysis. Almost 10 percent of Ercot power output last year came from wind…

  216. May I draw your attention to the site It skewers, in this article , the use of obscure detail-devilish minor provisions of the Clean Air Act, like 111(d) stretched beyond all plausible bounds, to make its control of all power sources in the US complete. And cautions here against the pretense of revenue neutrality to justify the Carbon Tax “solution”.


    Another battle over Texas schoolbooks. The AMS and National Center for Science Education try to intimidate the board selecting new schoolbooks to exclude those which contain even reasonable skepticism about CAGW. I read the one ‘offending’ paragraph offered and couldn’t believe that any rational person could object. I guess that explains it.

  218. NASA | A Year in the Life of Earth’s CO2

    The video:

    Article: “Concentrations of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere continue to increase. On Monday, NASA released a striking video that visualizes the invisible gas as it travels around the planet over one year.

    The simulation shows plumes of carbon dioxide “swirl and shift as winds disperse the greenhouse gas away from its sources,” according to NASA. The video also shows differences in carbon dioxide levels in the Northern and Southern hemispheres, as well as the change in concentrations of carbon dioxide that come with changes in season due to the growth cycle of plants and trees.

    Created with an ultra-high-resolution computer model, the visualization is called “Nature Run,” simulating May 2005 to June 2007.”

  219. Someone should make a post on the current round of lake effects snows, with more coming this week – some saying might be one of the biggest events in recorded history – entire season of normal snowfall in 1 week. Weather… not climate , as they like to say, but very interesting. Lots of source material / news reports out on the web now

  220. Not for those with high blood pressure…
    Published earlier this year by the Journal of Sustainable Tourism:

    On climate change skepticism and denial in tourism

    The period leading to and immediately after the release of the IPCC’s fifth series of climate change assessments saw substantial efforts by climate change denial interests to portray anthropogenic climate change (ACC) as either unproven theory or a negligible contribution to natural climate variability, including the relationship between tourism and climate change. This paper responds to those claims by stressing that the extent of scientific consensus suggests that human-induced warming of the climate system is unequivocal. Second, it responds in the context of tourism research and ACC, highlighting tourism’s significant contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, as well as climate change’s potential impacts on tourism at different scales. The paper exposes the tactics used in ACC denial papers to question climate change science by referring to non-peer-reviewed literature, outlier studies, and misinterpretation of research, as well as potential links to think tanks and interest groups. The paper concludes that climate change science does need to improve its communication strategies but that the world-view of some individuals and interests likely precludes acceptance. The connection between ACC and sustainability illustrates the need for debate on adaptation and mitigation strategies, but that debate needs to be grounded in scientific principles not unsupported skepticism.

  221. a week ago:

    BBC: Lightning strikes ‘more as world warms’- 13 NOVEMBER

    Lightning Will Increase With Global Warming, Study Says
    The Weather Channel-14 Nov 2014

    still being reported today:

    Lightning strikes will surge with climate change
    Science News for Students-10 hours ago

    and now for something completely different!

    19 Nov: BBC: Matt McGrath: Sun’s magnetic field boosts lightning strikes across the UK
    The number of lightning strikes across the UK has been significantly affected by solar activity, according to new research.
    Scientists say the Sun’s magnetic field is bending the Earth’s own field, increasing our exposure to cosmic rays…
    Over five years, the UK experienced 50% more strikes when the Earth’s magnetic field was affected by the Sun…
    The researchers believe the field is like a bar magnet, so as our star spins around sometimes the field points towards the Earth and sometimes away.
    “What we found was there is significantly more lightning in the UK when the field is pointing towards the Sun than when its pointing away which was surprising,” said Dr Matt Owens from the University of Reading, the lead author on the study…
    Recent research has also focussed on how climate change is likely to increase the amount of lightning strikes around the world. Dr Owens believes that the mechanism that his study identifies still holds, regardless of the temperature.
    “If you heat up the atmosphere you’ve got more convection, more water vapour, you get more thunderclouds,” he said…READ ON

  222. another day, another cagw report:

    19 Nov: AFP: Current pledges not enough to stop global warming: UN report
    The report by the UN Environment Program and the World Resources Institute said the planet must aim for global carbon neutrality by mid-to-late century to head off the worst effects of climate change.
    “There is still a significant gap between where emissions are going and where they need to be by 2030 if we’re going to limit warming to less than 2 degrees (Celsius),” said Taryn Fransen, project director of the Open Climate Network at the World Resources Institute.
    “This report is telling us that we are pointing in the wrong direction — and time is running out for us to get back on track.”…
    Then, global greenhouse gas emissions should be at least 50 per cent lower by 2050, said the report.
    After that, total global greenhouse gas emissions — not just carbon — need to shrink to net zero sometime between 2080 and 2100…
    About $310-360 billion dollars in public and private investment were spent on energy efficiency in 2012, and $244 billion spent on renewable energy, the report said, describing this funding as “significant.”
    Further actions could include ending fossil fuel subsidies and raising fuel prices “so that they incorporate the costs of climate change and other environmental damages.”

  223. survey by Yale/George Mason centers for “climate change communication” attempts to manufacture CONSENT!

    19 Nov: Bloomberg: Jim Polson: Most Back Limits on Coal Emissions Even If Prices Rise
    The survey of 1,275 adults backs President Barack Obama’s efforts to bypass Congress and enact climate regulations by executive authority. Two thirds of those polled by researchers at Yale and George Mason universities support limits on carbon dioxide emissions even after being told such measures would raise power prices, they said today.
    The survey also reveals a “misunderstanding” of climate change as only one in 10 of those polled said they know that more than 90 percent of climate scientists say humans are contributing to global warming. Just half blame human activity while even fewer are “very worried” about climate change.
    “Very few Americans are aware that 97 percent of climate scientists agree that global warming is human caused,” the authors said. “This public misunderstanding of the scientific consensus — which has been found in each of our surveys since 2008 — has significant consequences.” …
    About 23 percent of respondents “strongly support” curbs on coal plant emissions to “reduce global warming and improve public health,” while 44 percent “somewhat support” such measures…
    Lead researchers included Anthony Leiserowitz at the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication and Edward Maibach of the Center for Climate Change Communication at George Mason.

  224. one week ago:

    14 Nov: Bloomberg: Matthew Carr: American Carbon Market Seen as Winner With China Accord
    “It is a big symbolic breakthrough, and to that extent will definitely help give renewed momentum to the global negotiations and hence to the idea of linked markets,” Lewis (Mark Lewis, analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux SA in Paris) said in an e-mailed response to questions…


    20 Nov: Bloomberg: Lynn Doan: First California-Quebec Joint Carbon Sale Canceled
    California and the Canadian province of Quebec, which run North America’s biggest carbon market, cut short their first joint sale of greenhouse-gas allowances, citing “technical difficulties.”
    Some companies weren’t able to submit bids for allowances during today’s auction, David Clegern, a spokesman for theCalifornia Air Resources Board, said in an e-mailed statement from Sacramento today. The agency said on its website that qualified bidders would receive an e-mail about rescheduling the sale…
    “Until now, you could have called the rollout smooth,”said Jon Costantino, executive director of the Association of Carbon Market Participants and a senior adviser at the law firmManatt, Phelps & Phillips LLP in Sacramento. “It’ll be interesting to see what happened, how they’re going to reschedule and if the regulation even allows for that.”
    The vendor that’s contracted to provide support services for the joint auction system is “evaluating the source of the problem,” Quebec’s environment ministry said in an e-mailed statement today…

  225. 20 Nov: Australian: Unlike US and China, we meet our targets
    by Greg Hunt, federal Minister for the Environment.
    A flaw in the climate debate is that, largely for domestic political reasons, real numbers around emissions have been ignored by many on the Left because of the inconvenient truth that Australia has been a star performer in curbing emissions growth, without a carbon tax, as shown in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change data and other figures released by the Australian government today…
    This brings us to last week’s agreement between the US and China…
    ***First, it is non-binding.
    ***Second, contrary to what Shorten and others suggest, the agreement emphasises nuclear power, cleaning up coal-fired power stations, and shale gas, as well as encouraging renewables.
    ***Third, there is no mention of carbon taxes or equivalent schemes…

  226. Natural Weather Extremes – Snow
    – 8 FEET snow in Buffalo by Friday this week = annual average
    “More than 5 feet of snow was already on the ground Wednesday, and another round of lake-effect snow is forecast to bring an additional 3 feet of snow to the Buffalo area on Thursday and Friday. The average snowfall for an entire year: 93.6 inches, or close to 8 feet.”

  227. We need a word for what Greens deceptively label “renewable” energy. My suggestion is Pyrrhic energy. The definition of Pyrrhic from Google: pyr·rhic1
    (of a victory) won at too great a cost to have been worthwhile for the victor.

    It would be fun if you did a post soliciting other labels.

  228. Anthony, this paper was highlighted at Bishop Hill yesterday. It strikes me as pretty important, since it uses the AR5’s own numbers on aerosol forcing and climate sensitivity and shows they are inconsistent. Its Figure 1 shows that if we accept the AR5 value for aerosol forcing, it implies a best estimate for climate sensitivity of about 1.6 decrees C per doubling, NOT the 3 degrees that the IPCC and NAS have been using for the last 35 years.

    One of the authors is Charlson of the University of Washington, one of the greats in atmospheric sciences, so the paper cannot be ignored.

  229. Subsidies (in UK) for solar not needed after 2020. Solar Trade Association Oct 2014.
    Oops, did we say 2020? Um, how about 2025? 2028? Solar trade Association Nov 2014

    ‘ The new analysis makes clear that even with steady subsidy support, the technology would remain reliant on subsidies for far longer than the 2020 target previously announced.

    Despite this admission, STA chief executive Paul Barwell yesterday insisted: “We just need one final push from Government to get solar to being subsidy-free.” ‘

  230. On cue from the AP:

    NOAA: Globe sets 5th hottest-month record of 2014

    Despite a bitter U.S. cold snap, the globe is rushing hell-bent toward its warmest year on record with last month setting the fifth monthly heat record of the year.

    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced Thursday that last month was the hottest October on record worldwide. The 58.43 degrees Fahrenheit (14.74 Celsius) beat out October 2003.

    “It is becoming pretty clear that 2014 will end up as the warmest year on record,” said Deke Arndt, climate monitoring chief for NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, North Carolina. “The remaining question is: How much?”

  231. 20 Nov: Democracy Now: From Hottest October to Coldest November, Is Climate Change Behind the Extreme Weather?
    To talk more about this week’s extreme weather, we’re joined by Eric Holthaus, a meteorologist who writes about weather and climate for Slate. His most recent post is called “Global Warming Is Probably Boosting Lake-Effect Snows.”…
    ERIC HOLTHAUS: Well, the science says that this is another example of extreme weather and how climate change is affecting it. In this case, the Great Lakes are, since I think the year—since the 1970s, have decreased their ice cover by about 70 percent. So, all that extra open water in the wintertime is giving more chance for things like lake-effect snow to form…
    AMY GOODMAN: So, explain how weather relates to climate change right now.
    ERIC HOLTHAUS: Sure. Well, climate change is boosting the amount of energy that’s available in the atmosphere, in general, by heating the atmosphere, retrapping the sun’s incoming energy, and then that kind of gives an extra boost into these kind of weather systems. So when you’re talking about—when you’re talking about drought or extreme precipitation, in general, what climate change will do will make the wet days wetter, and it will make the dry periods more dry. So, again, this lake-effect snow is one example of that.
    ***AMY GOODMAN: Can you talk about the backlash against what you’re writing? You faced this right-wing backlash…
    ERIC HOLTHAUS: Well, I think the real only reason to deny the changes that are happening in the atmosphere right now because of humans is political at this point…
    AMY GOODMAN: Do you think it would be accurate if the meteorologists on television, instead of just flashing the two words “severe weather” or “extreme weather,” also flashed “climate change” or “global warming”? How do you think that would affect people’s perceptions of what we could do?
    ERIC HOLTHAUS: Well, I think it would be more scientifically accurate. I mean, I think, like I said earlier, the only reason not to talk about climate change anymore is, I think, political. So, to be true to the science, we can find a link for extreme weather events almost all around the country or around the world right now…

    ***as a non-rightwing CAGW sceptic, who has numerous non-rightwing friends who are CAGW sceptics, i really resent Democracy Now and so-called progressive leftists who keep insisting it’s a left/right political thing….just as i resent rightwing CAGW sceptics when they do likewise.

  232. What won’t it do

    The State’s Attorney General says the Buffalo snowstorms are more evidence that climate change is happening, and that New York and the nation need to work harder to combat the causes of global warming.

    State Attorney General Eric Schneiderman says this week in Western New York is another example of weather patterns that are changing, and won’t go back to normal by themselves.

    “You can’t connect one specific storm to climate change, but the pattern is irrefutable,” Schneiderman said. “We’ve had more extreme weather incidents in the last five years or so then we’ve ever had before.”

    He says Long Island got 13 inches of rain in a short period of time earlier this year. Schneiderman says New York is doing its share to further green technology, and can do even more, but he says the national dialogue needs to change. He says it’s time for “climate change denial to become unacceptable in American public discourse”.

  233. Michael Mann has a “quick calculation”.

    2014 Set for Record Hot; Record Cold Thing of the Past
    By Andrea Thompson, Climate Central | November 21, 2014 02:30am ET


    “The globe continues to warm just as climate models have long-predicted,” climate scientist Michael Mann, of Penn State, said in an email.

    The steady uptick in warming, even with a relative slowdown in recent decades, means that the likelihood of seeing a record cold year in the future is, according to a quick calculation by Mann, “astronomically small.”


  234. I looked at the front page, but did not see it. Also searched the site for a the name “Deke Arndt” but no hits came up… Somehow this does not seem correct, but I did not track temperature records set around the globe this year, either.
    Interesting that the statistic cited is “The globe has broken 37 monthly high temperature records since January 1997, including five this year, according to NOAA.” By my math, that equates to 37/214 17% of the months in that period. That’s not an overwhelming number. As well, it’s clear that the temperature calculation, to the HUNDREDTH of a degree, is something we would never notice in daily weather observations; it’s only a calculated value. And, I have to wonder if it’s even something that can really be noticed by most species of flora and fauna.


    Story excerpt…
    Originally published November 21, 2014 at 11:39 AM | Page modified November 21, 2014 at 11:42 AM
    NOAA: Globe sets 5th hottest-month record of 2014
    Despite a bitter U.S. cold snap, the globe is rushing hell-bent toward its warmest year on record with last month setting the fifth monthly heat record of the year.

    AP Science Writer WASHINGTON —

    Despite a bitter U.S. cold snap, the globe is rushing hell-bent toward its warmest year on record with last month setting the fifth monthly heat record of the year.

    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced Thursday that last month was the hottest October on record worldwide. The 58.43 degrees Fahrenheit (14.74 Celsius) beat out October 2003.

    “It is becoming pretty clear that 2014 will end up as the warmest year on record,” said Deke Arndt, climate monitoring chief for NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, North Carolina. “The remaining question is: How much?”

    With only two months left in the year, 2014 has now surged ahead as the globe’s warmest year so far, beating 2010 and 1998. So far this year, the world is averaging 58.62 degrees (14.78 degrees Celsius). If the last two months of the year are only average for the 21st century, it will still be the warmest year ever, Arndt said.

    He said this year’s heat is what scientists expect from man-made global warming. Scientists say the burning of coal, oil and gas traps heats, changing the climate.

    This heat is being driven by incredible warmth in the world’s oceans, Arndt said. The six warmest months on record for the world ocean temperatures have been the last six months. Because oceans are big and slow to change that makes it more likely the world will set a yearly temperature record, he said.

    Pennsylvania State University climate scientist Michael Mann said in an email he hopes the new data will put to rest “the silly ongoing claims that global warming has ‘stopped’ or that there is a ‘hiatus’ in global warming.”

    The world is approaching the warmest year “in spite of the U.S. being pretty cold,” Arndt said. That’s because the United States is only 2 percent of the world’s area and the part that’s unusually cold is about 1.5 percent of the entire globe, he said.

    It has been so hot in California that there is no way the year will end up not breaking the record for heat in the state, said NOAA climate scientist Jake Crouch.

    This year October, September, August, June and May — five of the last six months — set global monthly heat records. April 2014 was the second hottest on record. January, March and July were fourth. February was the 21st warmest.

    NASA, Japan’s weather agency and the University of Alabama Huntsville satellite measuring system — which climate skeptics usually use — also called it the hottest October on record.

    The globe has broken 37 monthly high temperature records since January 1997, including five this year, according to NOAA. The last cold monthly temperature record broken was in December 1916.

    Texas Tech climate scientist Katharine Hayhoe said the issue isn’t so much about record highs, but trends over multiple decades. Seeing the 38th consecutive October that is warmer than the 20th century average “is climate change, and we are seeing it in spades.” It is also the 356th month in a row the world’s temperature has been warmer than the 20th century average.



  235. Shortwave and longwave radiative contributions to global warming under increasing CO2
    Aaron Donohoe et al


    “these results suggest that, although greenhouse gas forcing predominantly acts to reduce OLR, the resulting global warming is likely caused by enhanced Absorbed Solar Radiation

  236. Wow, two in one day:

    Those of us who felt the direct impacts of the storm formerly know as Ike — in Cincinnati, OH — already had an inkling that the Midwest can have flood damage Tropical Cyclones…

    Here’s confirmation:

    Midwestern States Can Suffer Hurricane Damage, Flooding
    Illinois, Wisconsin and Michigan among states that can be impacted by tropical cyclone flooding

    Published on: Nov 19, 2014
    University of Iowa researchers say East Coast dwellers aren’t the only ones affected by the impacts of hurricanes – residents of Midwestern states are, too, as hurricane remnants can bring about major flooding in the heartland.

    “Our results indicate that flooding from tropical cyclones affects large areas of the United States and the Midwest, as far inland as Illinois, Wisconsin, and Michigan,” said Gabriele Villarini, UI assistant professor of civil and environmental engineering.

    Villarini studied the discharge records collected at 3,090 U.S. Geological Survey stream gauge stations from 1981 to 2011 to find that North Atlantic tropical cyclones can impact large areas of the United States away from the East Coast.

    Flooding from a single tropical cyclone often impacts 10 to 15 states located hundreds of miles from the coast and covering a wide area, explained Villarini, who also conducts research at IIHR-Hydroscience & Engineering.

    Maximum water discharges recorded by USGS stream gauges helped the researchers construct maps for each storm that showed the relationship between inland flooding and tropical cyclones.

    The USGS stream gauges used for the study, located east of the Rocky Mountains, showed that tropical cyclones can cause major flooding over the Midwest, including the southeastern corner of Iowa, Villarini said.

    Despite impacts of inland flooding, inland tropical cyclone flooding has received little attention in the scientific literature, although the news media have begun to pay more attention following Hurricane Irene in 2011 and Hurricane Sandy in 2012, he said.

    Villarini said that the amount of financial damage caused by the storms in the Midwest and the eastern United States will be the subject of a future study.

    The research paper, “North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones and U.S. Flooding,” can be found in the September issue of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

    Original Source Article Link:

    Study Link:

  237. Check out Bishop Hill blog and their report of the article on on Google scientists concluding that renewable energy can never meet the energy requirements of Earth.

    • For some reason when you click the link you get just the masthead; to get the story you have to click on “environment” then click the story headline.

    • Pelamis only got £1.4m. The total grants for wave power for all the companies involved was £25m. MeyGen and Marine Current Turbines (MCT) got £10m each.

  238. A trivial point followed by more important thoughts. And a final bit of insufficient appreciation.

    It seems there is a new style of ad I find very annoying. It opens and pushes text down, then it closes and pulls the text back up again. If you are trying to read, it’s very easy to lose your place and greatly diminishes the enjoyment of the piece. If you are trying to follow the logic of an argument, it may be necessary to start over. I suppose I can adjust my reading style. Rather than plow ahead, when the stupid thing opens, I’ll just wait for it to close. At least it doesn’t come back. That will be an ad feature in version 2.0 most likely.

    Although the site looks better, and you have more on the front page, I find I’m visiting less. There is less to hook me into any given story, so I may just pass over it, not knowing why I should care about it. I’ve spent many enjoyable hours on WUWT, and miss my good times here. Something is not the same, and I’m still not sure what the problem is, meaning there may be more going on than I’ve mentioned above. Is it the story selection? The writers? Are we getting bored? Have we gone over the same ground too much already?

    It could be the people who were willing to put themselves out there on a limb are not willing to put up with the buzzsaw of criticism from everyone. It seems trolls are infectious. Ordinarily nice people turn into beasts when they have a keyboard. Willis is good at putting up with the crap, and he is a survivor.

    But above all, Anthony, you are good at putting up with all of us. We are sometimes our own worst enemy. Thanks for hanging in there. I’m glad you are experimenting with different ways to keep WUWT fresh and exciting. What you are doing is so important, far more important than most people realize.

    • > … new style of ad I find very annoying.
      Then you should be using Mozilla FireFox, with the AdBlock “add-on”. Completely and seamlessly eliminates ads.

      It also eliminates the website’s potential income from those ads. Oops.

      Well, I like to think I’m an ethical chap, so I rationalize this by imagining these ad-spammers will soon figure out new “work-arounds” to annoy us with theirs. Sort of like how pathogens develop resistance to drugs. They evolve!

    • I suggest that it is simply a matter of familiarity with the issues that make the site seem ho-hum to you. I have stopped visiting many anti-Warmista sites because I have loaded myself with all info that I can; there is no more; it is simply a case of waiting for the Warmistas to disappear up their own … well, you understand what I mean.

      This site is the go-to site for any news, I visit regularly.

      So … take off, Hoser!.:-) (That’s a Canuck joke)

  239. Scientists have revealed that levels of carbon dioxide increase in the Northern Hemisphere during summers each year as plants absorb carbon dioxide to convert sunlight into food. The CO2 levels again rise as the plants release CO2 after the growing season.

    Scientists have found that corn, rice, wheat and soybean are the four leading crops that account for maximum CO2 release in the atmosphere of Northern Hemisphere. Crops act as sponge for CO2 and it could be said that the sponge effect has become bigger because of the advancements in agricultural techniques, leading to more production. There is a sharp rise in demand of food production because of growing population across the world, which means that the levels of CO2 will only increase in coming years.

    Researchers have also showed that agricultural production is likely to account for 25% surge in the seasonal carbon cycle. And corn will play a leading role.

    Now, the chaff causes global warming

  240. Hello Anthony,

    This might be quite interesting, real time imagery of the earth, supposedly made public access.

    While he goes on and on about how this will help AGWarmers, NOG’s, etc… I believe that, if in fact is open and public, would give many people the tools to shed a LOT of light in many things, including CAGW.

    I do not know why I had not hear about this before. It seems amazing.

  241. I’m suddenly getting pop-up advertising, usually a video with noise, every time I open a new thread. This is simply too intrusive. I know WordPress has bills to pay, but this is just too much. It doesn’t require you to click on it, it just starts and runs. I’m a believer in Capitalism and everything, but this new gimmick is over the line.

  242. 21 Nov: Bloomberg: Eric Roston: The Magical Thought That’s Assumed in Climate Studies
    At the rate we’re going, the budget may burn up by the 2040s. Now, in finance, the notion of a budget deficit make sense. When someone overspends, he pays the money back at a later date. Ecological deficits make less sense. How do you pay the ground back in carbon minerals once they’ve been vaporized and are hanging in the atmosphere?
    Here’s what’s weird, what the Emissions Gap report calls out. It has to do with these “carbon deficits” that result. We’re burning through so much of the budget today that in “safe” projections of the 2070s and 2080s, greenhouse gas emissions must go negative for the climate to stay safe. Smokestacks will have to start inhaling rather than exhaling…
    Many climate projections “routinely assume” that pollution will have to run backwards, according to the UNEP…
    Whenever anyone starts talking about negative emissions, “the feasibility of these assumptions still needs to be explored,” the UNEP writes.
    That “feasibility” phrase seems like a charitable euphemism to suggest that a key tool in fighting climate change is still magical thinking, and that the dominant, de facto world policy on climate change is to hope that it won’t get as bad as scientists think it will.
    There’s still some time to change that. China today announced it would cap its coal use in 2020, a dramatic admission unthinkable even months ago…

  243. We have a film in which Dr Mann is the villain and who ends up freezing his tush off.

    Christopher Nolan’s film Interstellar is that the villain is a climate scientist called “Dr Mann”.
    When Coop & Co get there, they discover it’s an ice planet – a vast frozen wasteland in which even the clouds ice up. Consigning the man who eliminated the Medieval Warm Period to a giant planetary icebox again seems too good a jest to be coincidental.

    Seems the warmists have been spoofed.

    Full text of that part of the blog:

    ~Speaking of “an incurious, supportive media”, Steve Sailer draws my attention to this column from The Atlantic, in which Noah Gittell bemoans the fact that Christopher Nolan’s film Interstellar isn’t quite up to snuff as by-the-book climate-change propaganda:

    Interstellar is set in a near-future Earth on the verge of total ecological collapse, with drastic changes in weather patterns and devastating food shortages driving human beings to the brink of extinction. We never learn exactly what caused this devastation (there is a vague reference to a crop disease called “a blight”)… And so it stands to reason that whatever planet the humans in Interstellar end up colonizing, they will destroy it just as surely as a virus destroys its host.

    Sometimes it helps actually to watch the movie that’s been made rather than the one you think the guy should have made. It’s not “a vague reference” to the Blight, but actually quite a thought-out explanation for it. As I wrote the other day:

    Nolan actually goes to a bit of trouble to identify the problem as “non-anthropogenic” climate change. NASA’s top boffin (Michael Caine, not on best form) explains that the Blight feeds on nitrogen – which is 80 per cent of the atmosphere, but, unlike CO2 emissions, nothing to do with man.

    It would have been easy to make the Blight something to do with “global warming” and get Gittell hailing it as the greatest thing since The Day After Tomorrow. And yet Nolan chose not to…


    In one scene, he shows in the background, on a distant ridge line, a row of wind turbines.

    In other words, this shrunken, impoverished, backward world appears to have done everything the Gittells want – and this is the result: a world in which wind turbines blow nothing but a ferocious, ravening, poisonous dust.

    There are other clues, too: There is no livestock. Is everyone perforce vegetarian? There are no Blight-proof GM crops. Did they get banned?

    As you know, my main interest in Christopher Nolan’s film Interstellar is that the villain is a climate scientist called “Dr Mann”. So I took my kids along to the film on Friday night, and concluded:

    Given the film’s themes, it’s difficult to believe the Nolans’ choice of name for their bad guy is pure coincidence.

    Once he’s on his new world, he sends back data telling NASA what a perfect climate it is. When Coop & Co get there, they discover it’s an ice planet – a vast frozen wasteland in which even the clouds ice up. Consigning the man who eliminated the Medieval Warm Period to a giant planetary icebox again seems too good a jest to be coincidental.

    But this guy at The Atlantic, Noah Gittell, persists in seeing the film as some sort of metaphor for global warming that’s a bit too elliptical for his tastes. As Steve Sailer says:

    Something I’ve noticed over the years is that liberals are increasingly unable to notice when they are being satirized.

    I used to write for The Atlantic, and one day the owner David Bradley took me to lunch in the Watergate building, which he owns. Over a cheeseburger, he told me that what he liked about my column was that a lot of the rest of the magazine was “earnest” and my stuff leavened the earnestness …just enough – because, after all, a lot of the readers were earnest, too. But there’s a big difference between being “earnest” and being as plonkingly unknowing as Mr Gittell is here.

    ~Speaking of Doctor Fraudpants, what’s the real Michael E Mann up to? Over at Anthony Watts’ site:

  244. looks like China will be using coal for decades to come!

    21 Nov: Bloomberg: China Needs 1,000 Nuclear Reactors to Fulfill Its Climate Pledge
    by Bloomberg News
    China, which does nothing in small doses, will need about 1,000 nuclear reactors, 500,000 wind turbines or 50,000 solar farms as it takes up the fight against climate change…
    The pledge would require China to produce either 67 times more nuclear energy than the country is forecast to have at the end of 2014, 30 times more solar or nine times more wind power. That almost equals the non-fossil fuel energy of the entire U.S. generating capacity today. China’s program holds the potential of producing vast riches for nuclear, solar and wind companies that get in on the action…
    China has already run into difficulty managing its renewables. About 11 percent of wind capacity sat unused last year because of grid constraints, with the rate rising to more than 20 percent in the northern provinces of Jilin and Gansu, according to the China Renewable Energy Engineering Institute…
    For China to succeed, it will have to install the clean energy equivalent of Spain’s entire generating capacity each year until 2030, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance data. It has achieved that only once — last year…
    Electricity demand will rise 46 percent by 2020 and double by 2030, according to the International Energy Agency. China currently depends on coal for two-thirds of its energy, more than any other Group of 20 country except South Africa.
    The shift to renewables stands to benefit nuclear reactor makers including General Electric Co. and Areva SA, along with wind turbine manufacturers led by Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology Co. and Vestas Wind Systems A/S…
    In all, China will spend $4.6 trillion upgrading its power industry by 2040. Nuclear and renewables alone will garner $1.77 trillion in new investment, taking 79 percent of all the funding for power plants built in China, the IEA said in its World Energy Outlook on Nov. 12. Fossil fuels get the remaining share…