Josh writes:
Are we now 95% certain? Yes, we are! Hooray!
Yesterday we heard from UK climate science community about their work on AR5. The event was called “Climate Change 2013 – The Physical Science Basis. The Working Group 1 contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.”
I was there to draw some cartoon notes. Here is my favourite.
And here is the note I made when Marcel Crok, also at the meeting along with Nic Lewis, explained exactly what we are all 95% certain of.
.. which is very good news, I think you will agree. We didn’t hear a lot of cheering but we did see a lot of graphs, and I made some notes. Click the image for a large readable version.
What a citation: “We’re very confident that there are uncertainties…” (Cathy Senior, 2014, IPCC, AR5, WG1). I guess she could have said this in her presentation?
Fantastic poster, Josh and Anthony. – Every classroom should have one of these on the wall!
Send one to Chazza also (The Prince of Wales).
Our fossil fuel burning CO2 production is 3% of the TOTAL ANNUAL CO2 BUDGET. The rest is NATURAL.
Stop worms farting now to save the planet.
usurbrain says: February 6, 2014 at 8:09 pm
“And these “scientists” have a 97% consensus? B/S”
You are correct on the conclusion. However, the “97% consensus” paper has been has been dissected and debunked. There are numerous threads on this site and others which you could read for a better understanding of the underhanded methodology used to arrive at 97%.
Eric
Here’s a funny cartoon of Gore in a straitjacket:
http://quadrant.org.au/opinion/zegs-take/2013/10/burning-mad/
jai mitchell says:
February 6, 2014 at 2:54 pm
“Which means that they are 95% confident that it is between 1 and 6 degrees per doubling of CO2.”
I’m 99% confident that they’re all rent-seeking charlatans. As of now this hypothesis has not been falsified.
jai mitchell says:
February 6, 2014 at 2:54 pm
“Which means that they are 95% confident that it is between 1 and 6 degrees per doubling of CO2″
Which actually means that after all that money, they are 95% certain that it will either not matter, or be a calamity (or anywhere in between). Thanks for the settled scientific guidance chaps – think I’ll wait a bit and see what the data says.
It is more like stating that there a 95% confidence that the force of gravity is greater than 20 meters per second squared and planning a trip to the moon.
No wonder the models keep failing.
Even 6° would not be a “calamity”. When the Earth is in “Hothouse mode”, it is about 10K warmer than now, and life booms, pole to pole.