(CNSNews.com) – Dr. Don Easterbrook – a climate scientist and glacier expert from Washington State who correctly predicted back in 2000 that the Earth was entering a cooling phase – says to expect colder temperatures for at least the next two decades.
Easterbrook’s predictions were “right on the money” seven years before Al Gore and the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize for warning that the Earth was facing catastrophic warming caused by rising levels of carbon dioxide, which Gore called a “planetary emergency.”
“When we check their projections against what actually happened in that time interval, they’re not even close. They’re off by a full degree in one decade, which is huge. That’s more than the entire amount of warming we’ve had in the past century. So their models have failed just miserably, nowhere near close. And maybe it’s luck, who knows, but mine have been right on the button,” Easterbrook told CNSNews.com.
“For the next 20 years, I predict global cooling of about 3/10ths of a degree Fahrenheit, as opposed to the one-degree warming predicted by the IPCC,” said Easterbrook, professor emeritus of geology at Western Washington University and author of 150 scientific journal articles and 10 books, including “Evidence Based Climate Science,” which was published in 2011. (See EasterbrookL coming-century-predictions.pdf)
In contrast, Gore and the IPCC’s computer models predicted “a big increase” in global warming by as much as one degree per decade. But the climate models used by the IPCC have proved to be wrong, with many places in Europe and North America now experiencing record-breaking cold.
Easterbrook noted that his 20-year prediction was the “mildest” one of four possible scenarios, all of which involve lower temperatures, and added that only time will tell whether the Earth continues to cool slightly or plunges into another Little Ice Age as it did between 1650 and 1790.
…
On the PDO:
“What I did was I projected this same pattern forward to see what it would look like. And so in 1999, which was the year after the second warmest year on record, the PDO said we’re due for a climate change, and so I said okay. It looks as though we’re going to be entering a period of about three decades or so of global cooling.
“And so in 2000, I published a paper with the Geological Society of America in which I predicted that we were going to stop warming and begin cooling for about 25 or 30 years, on the basis of taking the temperature records that go back a century or more and simply repeating the pattern of warming and cooling, warming and cooling, and so on.
(Top) PDO fluctuations and projections to 2040 based on past PDO history.
– See more at: http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/barbara-hollingsworth/climate-scientist-who-got-it-right-predicts-20-more-years-global#sthash.jTgQD6lj.dpuf
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WUWT offers congratulations to Don for getting press. Be sure to share the link to this article with friends on social media.
For more on his prediction see: Cause of ‘the pause’ in global warming
Well, he’s less wrong that the IPCC.
But I thought it wasn’t cooling yet. Just in a hiatus.
It may cool overthe next two decades but right now the temperature is staying flat (within measurement error).
Isn’t it?
Now if we can find the cause of the PDO!
Judy Curry is making the same prediction based on the Wyatt/Curry stadium wave, which larger and more complex sER of natural periodic variations than the PDO, but with the same general periodicy.
@M. Courtney – a .3 degree change over 30 years is not going to show a huge change in the graphs. That is essentially flat, so since he got the last 10 years accurately, I will give him another 20 to see how accurate he is.
Judy Curry is making the same prediction based on the Wyatt/Curry stadium wave, which larger and more complex set of natural periodic variations than the PDO, but with the same general periodicy.
Is it correct that he published a paper in 2000? The closest I can see is a brief abstract of a talk at a conference in 2001,
https://gsa.confex.com/gsa/2001AM/finalprogram/abstract_28039.htm
which said
“If the cycles continue as in the past, the current warm cycle should end in the next few years, and global warming should abate, rather than increase, in the coming decades.”
M. Courtney, you write “Isn’t it?”
Good question. There is some evidence that in the last few years, temperatures have been cooling. Werner Brozek has some software that starts at the current date, and goes back to see how long the pause has lasted. I wonder if he has software that again starts at current date, and looks back and plots the slope of the temperature/time graph for recent years. That might answer your question.
1993, 1996 Marcel Leroux…
Didn’t Bob Tisdale do a hatchet job on Easterbrook’s paper a couple of weeks ago on WUWT? I thought he was going away to review his temperature data.
It shows that some climate experts can get it right despite consensus bullying to the contrary. Congratulations for well deserved recognition!
Anthony, you’ve included in your post the Easterbrook graph that has TLT data spliced onto global surface temperature data, not the updated graph that Easterbrook presented for that post in its place:
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/clip_image00212.jpg
Reminder, see the post here:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/01/17/cause-of-the-pause-in-global-warming/
Regards
The short answer is “yes”, it appears so. If you really want to attempt reading the tea leaves, most of the global indices seem to indicate negative trends from 2001 to present, as presented at Wood for Trees. I’m not sure, however, that I’d want to promote government stockpiling of Polar Fleece based on the current trend data.
PDO. I learned about that in 2007 and immediately came to the same conclusion (along with millions of others, I guess).
When looking at it top-down, the way one must with any impossibly complex system, it was quite clear (and non-complex). Just pick out the dominant factor(s).
Sometimes it is so much easier (and cheaper) to get it right than to get it wrong.
Anthony: Oops, my mistake. It was CNS, not you, who included the graph with the make-believe global surface temperature data from 1998 to 2010.
Regards
Just because it correctly predicts outcomes confirmed by empirical data doesn’t mean it’s science. Science is what The Consensus says it is.
M Courtney says:
February 5, 2014 at 7:32 am
Well, he’s less wrong that the IPCC.
But I thought it wasn’t cooling yet. Just in a hiatus.
It may cool overthe next two decades but right now the temperature is staying flat (within measurement error).Isn’t it?
Correct. It may cool, but the chances are it will not, there is no sign at the moment that temperatures are falling. I always point out that if a value has gone up, and it stays up, it has still risen, even if the rate of increase has levelled off.
In 2ooo we (or they) were using Hadcrut3 temperatures, Today hadcrut4 temperatures are being used. At this pace in 20 years the standard may be hadcrut6, LOL. 0.3 degrees in 30 years with 3 or 4 dataset changes does not mean anything.
M Courtney says: February 5, 2014 at 7:32 am
But I thought it wasn’t cooling yet. Just in a hiatus.
Only if you look at the mangled, sorry Quality Controlled Temperature data, those who have analysed the Raw data show Cooling has already started, especially in the northern hemisphere.
The next flat linear trend coming is the 20 year trend. By the end of 2015?
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1980/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1993/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1992/to:2013/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1991/to:2012/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1990/to:2011/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1989/to:2010/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1988/to:2009/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1987/to:2008/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1986/to:2007/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1985/to:2006/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1984/to:2005/trend
It’s curious the so called experts are 180 degrees out of phase with reality. When the scare mongers were predicting the coming ice age in the early 1970’s, there was actually warming. Then when they predicted warming post 1990’s it appears there’s actually cooling.
There is no one who has blogged on WUWT who has gotten every detail of their theory correct every time , including this blogger. We all modify our views as better data and understanding is released. I think Don Easterbrook deserves the press recognition that he is finally getting for being one of the pioneer scientists for predicting alternating cycles of global cooling and warming but cooling for the next 2-3 decades when the rest of the scientific community was projecting straight line waming to 2100.They are even doing it now.
Is it cooling yet or just flat when it comes temperatures ?
The Northern Hemisphere temperature anomalies [ hadcrut 4nh] have declined since 2004 [ 10 years \
The Southern Hemisphere temperature anomalies [ hadcrut 4sh] have been flat since 2004[ 10 years ]
Northern Hemisphere winter temperature anomalies have declined for combined land and oceans since 1998 or for 16 years .
Northern Hemisphere winter temperature anomalies for land is cooling faster than the oceans during the last 10 years .
Northern Hemisphere winter temperature anomalies show a decline since even 1995 but show the greatest decline since 2004 or during the last 10 years.
Northern Hemisphere SST show a decline for the last 10 years[ during every season and annually as well.]
The Southern Hemisphere SST is flat.
The North Atlantic Ocean SST has been declining since about 2005. The AMO index is declining since about 2005 . The Pacific Ocean SST is flat but the North Pacific Ocean SST has been declining slightly since about 2005
What happens if you combine the trends of the PDO and the AMO and see what history tells us then??
Has Dr Easterbrook also done that projection??
If so, what did he find????
“It’s curious the so called experts are 180 degrees out of phase with reality. When the scare mongers were predicting the coming ice age in the early 1970′s, there was actually warming. Then when they predicted warming post 1990′s it appears there’s actually cooling.”
They seem to insist on extrapolating linear trends out of a short section of a fluctuating sine wave…
Paul, if you click on the word “paper” it links you to Don’s page and shows the 2000 paper at the bottom. As for it already cooling….depends on whether you trust the “adjusted” data or not. If you consider the data of the past, before it was changed in the future, it is most likely that temps have been cooling as a long term trend since the MWP. We’ve broken far more “low temp” records in the past few years than we have broken “high temp” ones.
-28C this morning in Calgary, AB. One of the coldest and snowiest winters on record.