(CNSNews.com) – Dr. Don Easterbrook – a climate scientist and glacier expert from Washington State who correctly predicted back in 2000 that the Earth was entering a cooling phase – says to expect colder temperatures for at least the next two decades.
Easterbrook’s predictions were “right on the money” seven years before Al Gore and the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize for warning that the Earth was facing catastrophic warming caused by rising levels of carbon dioxide, which Gore called a “planetary emergency.”
“When we check their projections against what actually happened in that time interval, they’re not even close. They’re off by a full degree in one decade, which is huge. That’s more than the entire amount of warming we’ve had in the past century. So their models have failed just miserably, nowhere near close. And maybe it’s luck, who knows, but mine have been right on the button,” Easterbrook told CNSNews.com.
“For the next 20 years, I predict global cooling of about 3/10ths of a degree Fahrenheit, as opposed to the one-degree warming predicted by the IPCC,” said Easterbrook, professor emeritus of geology at Western Washington University and author of 150 scientific journal articles and 10 books, including “Evidence Based Climate Science,” which was published in 2011. (See EasterbrookL coming-century-predictions.pdf)
In contrast, Gore and the IPCC’s computer models predicted “a big increase” in global warming by as much as one degree per decade. But the climate models used by the IPCC have proved to be wrong, with many places in Europe and North America now experiencing record-breaking cold.
Easterbrook noted that his 20-year prediction was the “mildest” one of four possible scenarios, all of which involve lower temperatures, and added that only time will tell whether the Earth continues to cool slightly or plunges into another Little Ice Age as it did between 1650 and 1790.
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On the PDO:
“What I did was I projected this same pattern forward to see what it would look like. And so in 1999, which was the year after the second warmest year on record, the PDO said we’re due for a climate change, and so I said okay. It looks as though we’re going to be entering a period of about three decades or so of global cooling.
“And so in 2000, I published a paper with the Geological Society of America in which I predicted that we were going to stop warming and begin cooling for about 25 or 30 years, on the basis of taking the temperature records that go back a century or more and simply repeating the pattern of warming and cooling, warming and cooling, and so on.
(Top) PDO fluctuations and projections to 2040 based on past PDO history.
– See more at: http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/barbara-hollingsworth/climate-scientist-who-got-it-right-predicts-20-more-years-global#sthash.jTgQD6lj.dpuf
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WUWT offers congratulations to Don for getting press. Be sure to share the link to this article with friends on social media.
For more on his prediction see: Cause of ‘the pause’ in global warming
Richard LH One other thought – the trends in the 1000 year actual temperature record also include the temperature effects of any intermediate periodicities anyway. So you don’t need to break them out separately for forecasting purposes.
Dr Norman Page says:
February 6, 2014 at 10:23 am
“Look for quasi repetitive- quasi periodic patterns and be aware of whatever factors may cause the next pattern to different from the last.”
Oh, I know all about how 60 can be constructed out of a 1:1:1 mix of 56:60:64 and many other combinations, usually in half cycle rather than full cycle mixes, and lots of ‘noise’. Just to confuse those who try to use FTs and Wavelets when looking for them 🙂
It looks like there is something in the 100-200 years bracket with some significant power in it but the data is just too short to be certain.
Why 56:60:64? Well that is 60 years and 4 years for the ‘true’ solar year of Leap Years. After all the planet is not back into the same position Land/Ocean wise relative to the Sun until 4 years have elapsed. So anything to do with temperature is likely to have at least some 4 year component to it (and it does appear to:-) )
You are correct, there is a very significant difference – CNS News is honest and open about their bias, while the BBC and The Guardian mislead their readers that they are objective.
As a seasoned viewer of the world through as many ‘coloured glasses’ as I can (I do find that looking at it through just one produces a very monochromatic picture) I would never take one single point of view as being ‘right’.
If you cannot, on demand, argue your opponents case almost as well as your own, then you are usually showing prejudice as opposed to reason.