A paper published January 21st in Quaternary Science Reviews reconstructs storm activity in Iceland over the past 1,200 years and finds storminess and extreme weather variability was far more common during the Little Ice Age in comparison to the Medieval Warm Period and the 20th century. The paper adds to many other peer-reviewed publications finding global warming decreases storm activity, the opposite of claims by climate alarmists.
The graph below shows storm activity shown in 2nd graph from top was much greater and more variable during the Little Ice Age in comparison to the Medieval Warm Period and the 20th century. Top graph shows one of Mann’s bogus hockey sticks in red, and another non-hockey-stick reconstruction in grey [Moberg et al 2005].
Fig. 8. Multiple proxies of environmental change in Iceland AD 700–2000. (a) Two multi-proxy temperature reconstructions, North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SST, Mann et al., 2009) and Moberg et al. (2005). (b) Shows GISP2 Na+ deviations from the mean, a proxy for storminess (Meeker and Mayewski, 2002). Cumulative deviations from the mean show a shift to stormier and windier conditions around AD 1425 (Dugmore et al., 2007). (c) Changes in total organic carbon at Lake Haukadalsvatn, west Iceland used as a proxy for aeolian erosion (Geirsdóttir et al., 2009). Bold horizontal bars show means over periods matching key tephra horizons in study (see Table 1). (d) Woodland cover is represented by Betulapollen percentages from a lake core near Lake Mývatn, north Iceland (Lawson et al., 2007) and charcoal pits present in south Iceland (Church et al., 2007) (e) Mean aggregate SeAR from Skaftártunga for period separated by dated tephra layers, with 1 standard deviation show by grey shading. Mean calculated where n = >10. (f) Mean aggregate SeAR at the scale of the landholding, from two small landholdings (Hrífunes and Flaga, see Fig. 1d). (g) Change in SeAR at the landscape scale, 2 stratigraphic sections which record the onset of increased erosion at AD 1597, but profile 38 shows stability through the entire settlement period prior to AD 1918. (h) Population trends in Iceland. Prior to the first census in AD 1703 estimates are based on medieval populations being similar to or even higher than the population in AD 1703 (90 and 43). Plague reductions of ∼40% in AD 1402–1404 and ∼30% in AD 1496 are shown (Karlsson, 1996).
The paper:
Late-Holocene land surface change in a coupled social–ecological system, southern Iceland: a cross-scale tephrochronology approach
Richard Streeter, Andrew Dugmore
Highlights
• Tephrochronology can be used to produce cross scale-analysis of land surface change.
• Grímsvötn tephras are dated to AD 1432 ± 5 and AD 1457 ± 5.
• High resolution 1200-year record of land surface change from Skaftártunga, south Iceland.
• Increasing spatial heterogeneity in sediment accumulation rates after AD ∼870.
• Relationship between climate, vegetation cover and land surface change contingent on past conditions.
Abstract
The chronological challenge of cross-scale analysis within coupled socio-ecological systems can be met with tephrochronology based on numerous well-dated tephra layers. We illustrate this with an enhanced chronology from Skaftártunga, south Iceland that is based on 200 stratigraphic profiles and 2635 individual tephra deposits from 23 different eruptions within the last 1140 years. We present new sediment-accumulation rate based dating of tephra layers from Grímsvötn in AD 1432 ± 5 and AD 1457 ± 5. These and other tephras underpin an analysis of land surface stability across multiple scales. The aggregate regional sediment accumulation records suggest a relatively slow rate of land surface change which can be explained by climate and land use change over the period of human occupation of the island (after AD ∼870), but the spatial patterning of change shows that it is more complex, with landscape scale hysteresis and path dependency making the relationship between climate and land surface instability contingent. An alternative steady state of much higher rates of sediment accumulation is seen in areas below 300 m asl after AD ∼870 despite large variations in climate, with two phases of increased erosion, one related to vegetation change (AD 870–1206) and another related to climate (AD 1597–1918). In areas above 300 m asl there is a short lived increase in erosion and related deposition after settlement (AD ∼870–935) and then relatively little additional change to present. Spatial correlation between rates of sediment accumulation at different profiles decreases rapidly after AD ∼935 from ∼4 km to less than 250 m as the landscape becomes more heterogeneous. These new insights are only possible using high-resolution tephrochronology applied spatially across a landscape, an approach that can be applied to the large areas of the Earth’s surface affected by the repeated fallout of cm-scale tephra layers.
This article was originally published on The Hockey Schtick, and presented here with some minor edits for format and clarity.
Jeff Alberts says sarcastically, “Really? The WHOLE Universe? Wow!”
Of course, I meant known, observable storms in the Universe, i.e. observable storms within our solar system
Thanks for being a stickler on that, while apparently missing the whole point of the comment.
Skeptic: “We’ve seen no warming for over 15 years, and now we’re having bitter cold spells.”
Alarmist: “Did we say “global warming”? We meant to say that CO2 would cause “extreme weather. Bitter cold spells, like heat waves, are just examples of extreme weather.”
Skeptic: “But extreme weather events are actually on the decline.”
Alarmist: “Did we say “extreme weather”? We meant to say “unusual weather.” From a historical perspective the reduction in extreme weather events, along with such a long spell of flat global temperatures are, in themselves, extremely unusual. Don’t you agree?
And so it goes on, and on, and on…
These AGW Kool-Aid drinkers will massage ANYTHING to fit their agenda. ANYTHING! Remember the Goracle’s hurricane being spawned from an industrial smoke stack? Oh so now THAT’S not right? Shouldn’t we have lost all the polar bears and coastal cities by now? These people are INSANE!
Anthony, I see that a link to this thread is on drudgereport.com/ this morning.
I am a weather forecaster for the Air Force and when the subject of global warming comes up I ask them if they have ever heard of a wooly mammoth? They look a little apprehensive at first if they believe the global warming lie. I tell them that these animals have been found with their bellies full of grass in some cases. I ask “don’t you think that the arctic was a lot wormer then if it had grass lands?” This global warming crap is about power, money and politics. Scientists that study global “pro” warming get grants while those who want to show the truth are denied funding and are kept from reporting there scientific findings in news outlets like the New York or Los Angelis Times. And while we do have a miniscule effect on the climate, I know that Mother Nature unleashes much more carbon dioxide through volcanic activity and other natural effects than we could ever do.
Global warming, yet another violation of our rights. The gov’t constantly violates our rights.
They violate the 1st Amendment by caging protesters and banning books like “America Deceived II”.
They violate the 4th and 5th Amendment by allowing TSA to grope you.
They violate the entire Constitution by starting undeclared wars.
Impeach Obama.
Last link of “America Deceived II” before it is completely banned:
http://www.amazon.com/America-Deceived-II-Possession-interrogation/dp/1450257437
Let’s see now, this means Al Gore’s movie was even more nonsensical. And we fed that movie to students throughout the country, wasting their time instead of teaching them something substantial.
At least the British wised up early and banned the movie from being shown in their schools. But Al is laughing all the way to the bank.
The acknowledged intention of the climate alarmists is to scare the pants off the average person who knows little about anything and trusts the main stream media to inform the general population. In this way, the governing forces can manipulate and control what is essentially a herd of sheep.
Any statement that starts, “Global Warming Increases/Decreases/Causes/Contributes, etc.,,,,” is a LIE, and is unsupported by facts. The only statement possible is, “There is insufficient evidence for Global Warming.” This doesn’t include Man-Made Global Warming, which is a political farce for which there is even less evidence. Our global climate has varied for millennia and will continue to do so, whether human beings are around to lie about the changes or not.
If only those who worship at the hem of Gaia and Gore would, instead, demonstrate an ability to think critically, and to act as individuals to help abate whatever problems they insist exist.
Instead, they believe that government holds the reins and the answers: nevermind the thousands of years that demonstrate how government is typically used to pervert every cause, every movement, at the behest of the greedy, the ambitious, the megalomaniac.
I read the 2002 Meeker & Majewski study (I think it was a joint US-UK project) on the salt concentration in ice core laminae from North Atlantic region, there was a significantly higher level in LIA, linked also to NAO Negative mode (cooling). The salt proxy here (Meeker & Majewski) was an inference of storminess on the assumption that salt spray is more prevalent in storm times.
All I know is that if we don’t start getting serious about stopping MMGW i.e higher carbon taxes, and $10/gallon gas ASAP…. we are all going to freeze to death…. its cold in the States.
Hey Al… do you sell space heaters.
Are you sure this is not a “head ’em off at the pass” from the global warming nuts out there?
Basically saying “oh yeah, this proves global warming, because we’re actually having less storms! We knew this, but we just accidentally said it would be more and stronger storms…. whoops…”
That’s kinda what it looks like to me. Another “study” that “proves” global warming, by agreeing with what’s going on out there, and not what they said would be going on.
It DOES say that, less storms, (which is what we’re seeing) are caused by …. global warming….
The observations of this research are to be expected: As the tropics never change temperature much, the planet has relatively less of a temperature difference between the poles and equator during warm periods, less to drive north-south convection. However, with a solar Grand Minimum approaching soon and with the solar tie to prior history, as in http://img16.imagevenue.com/img.php?image=22187_expanded_overview3_122_176lo.jpg , there should be major cooling later this decade, followed afterwards by transition into another Little Ice Age, so mid-latitude storminess will increase.
Now they are making fools out of Obama, Gore, Senators, Hollywood, etc. who just said since Hurricane Katrina and the Typhoon in the Philippines, also the Tornado’s and cold weather that all this Extreme Weather is caused by Global Warming. They just can’t get their Act together, they need Talking Points before they release their Studies but Stupid is as Stupid Does.
Nobody should be surprised by this, since the global warmers sole argument now is that “everything is caused by global warming”. That way, they can never be wrong on their federal grant applications.
How can ANYONE believe in global warming when seeing the following:
-the US set 28000+ records for cold in the last 6 months (AS IN ALL TIME LOWS, not some mythical “one cold winter BS)
-last year saw the coldest temp EVER RECORDED on earth and the lowest temp ever recorded in the northern hemisphere
-Arctic and Antarctic ice is at RECORD VOLUME AND THICKNESS
-the average temp in Alaska, a HUGE land mass has decreased three degrees over the past decade
-average ocean temps are decreasing
-Siberia had it’s coldest winter in a century
-China had its coldest winter in 50 years
-it snowed in Australia last month during the middle of its summer
-the IPCC said there is no evidence of warming for 15 years
-It snowed on the Sphinx for the first time in over a century
-climate “scientists” engaged in the biggest scientific fraud across the globe in the history of the world, literally
-NONE of the predicted outcomes from computer models have come true, in fact usually the exact opposite has come true, yet they claim EVERY side of the issue. For example, global warming and global cooling are caused by global warming, then it was extreme weather, now they are claiming the opposite of THAT !! Only a complete IDIOT would give these OPENLY FRAUDULENT “Scientists” any shred of credibility, but they keep changing all their predictions
-how many climate “scientists” are we going to have to rescue from the Arctic ice during the SUMMER before you brain dead indoctrinates WAKE THE F’UP ?!?!?
Sheesh, now Hansen is going to have to adjust all the data the other way and claim CO2 causes global cooling.
[waaaaay off topic – this article has nothing to do with tax laws – mod]
meanwhile – The empowered ignore the Jason Society’s work on setting up firewalls and safeguards to America’s powergrid– ironic a Magnetic Wave will wipe out all of the Climate Obsessed studies and their hard drives — somehow I think none of that matters at all to any of them
After the undeniable 18 year “pause”, one study produced some +/- 2500 years ago observing the necessity for deductive reasoning and subsequent objective investigation, should stand out above all others — Aarne-Thompson-Uther Type 20C, (specifically) Daddabha Jataka (J 322); Buddha, and /or more recently Chicken Little, Chicken Licken, Henny Penny, Hen-Len, et al.
What a load of manure. Global warming is one of the biggest hoaxes ever concocted by man. Its perpetrators are not honest about their motives which is more government control over humanity.
I have this program. It lets you generate a headline and text just like the one included in this article. Guess what ….some one just pulled your chain.
Ken S, I noticed the link on Drudge and was surprised to see it. A new world, perhaps?:]
I thought they said we would have record breaking destructive storms because of global warming. Now global warming reduces destructive storms. Face it, these people have no idea what they are talking about. Or what alarm bells to ring.