From the opportunist headlines department, and the department of Vinerisms “children just won’t know what snow is” comes this press release. Apparently Winter Olympics will be a thing of the past. Via Eurekalert:
Only six of the previous Winter Olympics host cities will be cold enough to reliably host the Games by the end of this century if global warming projections prove accurate. Even with conservative climate projections, only 11 of the previous 19 sites could host the Games in the coming decades, according to a new study from the University of Waterloo (Canada) and Management Center Innsbruck (Austria).
From the University of Waterloo
Climate change threatens Winter Olympics
Only 6 of previous Winter Games venues to be cold enough by late-century
Only six of the previous Winter Olympics host cities will be cold enough to reliably host the Games by the end of this century if global warming projections prove accurate.
Even with conservative climate projections, only 11 of the previous 19 sites could host the Games in the coming decades, according to a new study from the University of Waterloo (Canada) and Management Center Innsbruck (Austria).
“The cultural legacy of the world’s celebration of winter sport is increasingly at risk,” said Professor Daniel Scott, a Canada Research Chair in Global Tourism and lead author of the study. “Fewer and fewer traditional winter sports regions will be able to host a Olympic Winter Games in a warmer world.”
The study finds that internationally renowned Olympic sites, such as Squaw Valley (USA), Garmisch-Partenkirchen (Germany), Vancouver (Canada) and Sochi (Russia) would no longer have climates suitable to reliably host the Games by the middle of the 21st century. With additional warming projected for later decades of this century, as few as six former host locations would remain climatically suitable.
“This report clearly points out the challenges that lie ahead for the Olympics because of climate change,” said Chris Steinkamp, executive director of Protect Our Winters and who was not involved with the study. “It’s particularly powerful to see how past Olympic host cities could be impacted under a higher emission scenario, so hopefully this will serve as a wake up call to the IOC and world leaders that major commitments to carbon reductions need to be made.”
The need for weather risk management strategies by Olympic organizers has intensified as the average February daytime temperature of Winter Games locations has steadily increased – from 0.4°C at Games held in the 1920-50s, to 3.1°C in Games during the 1960-90s, and 7.8°C in Games held in the 21st century.
“Today it would be difficult to imagine successfully delivering the diverse Games program exclusively on natural ice and snow, as it was in the early decades of the Olympic Winter Games,” said Dr. Robert Steiger of the Management Center Innsbruck.
Weather risk management will become even more important in the coming decades with average February temperatures in past Winter Olympic host locations expected to warm an additional 1.9 to 2.1°C by mid-century and 2.7 to 4.4°C in late century.
The study found that the success of the Games is often partially attributed to favourable weather, while poor weather is highlighted as one of the greatest challenges faced by Olympic Organizing Committees. Weather affects the ability to prepare for the Games and can directly impact outdoor opening and closing ceremonies, fairness of outdoor competitions, spectator comfort, transportation, and visibility and timing of television broadcasts.
The study also examines how technological advancements and strategies developed over several decades have been used to manage weather risk at the Winter Olympics. Technology like snowmaking, track/jump refrigeration and high-resolution weather forecasting are now critical components of staging a successful Winter Games.
“Despite technological advances, there are limits to what current weather risk management strategies can cope with,” said Professor Scott. “By the middle of this century, these limits will be surpassed in some former Winter Olympic host regions.”
The study provides an important opportunity for reflection on the long-term implications of global climate change for the world of sport and the world’s collective cultural heritage symbolized by the Olympic Movement. It also reveals that for some cities and regions interested in hosting a future Winter Olympics, the time to bid for the games might be sooner than later.
A full copy of the report can be downloaded from https://uwaterloo.ca/news/sites/ca.news/files/uploads/files/oly_winter_games_warmer_world_2014.pdf
Sorry, this is link I meant to use:
http://www.whatsupmuskoka.com/sitepages/?aid=8623&cn=CURRENT%20NEWS&an=Muskokans%20dig%20out%20from%20nature%27s%20wrath
““Other parts of Ontario which don’t get as much snowfall as in the Muskoka area, Toronto for example, in an average winter sees about 115 cm of snow for the whole winter,” says Coulson. “Getting 128 cm in a week drives home the fact why we call Muskoka the snowbelt area in southern Ontario.”
Of course, Toronto is Canada’s English-language media centre…
Where’s my B### S*** button? I know it is here on my desk somewhere.
On behalf of Canada, I apologize for this doofus. Seems to be a trend to make perjections a generation or five out, just to forestall any accounting. Blech.
Not long ago these dudes were telling us that the Scottish ski industry was now in decline due to global warming. A few years later the CairnGorm was closed due to too much snow! The Alps also defied their hysteria.
NB R. Gates (former Warmist commenter on WUWT) has stated categorically that we should get MORE snow in a warming climate. Hey, I can dig it but can’t dig their two positions.
Then the climate changes or is this ‘climate change’? ;-p
These things are not entirely inconsistent with, or contradictory with whatchamacallit. Less snow is caused by global warming. More snow is caused by climate change. Average snow is not actually average but below normal from the other average thingamijig. Yep, the jig is almost over alright.
I was skiing in the Austrian alps in the 1980’s and its amazing they were able to hold a winter olympics there in Innsbruk. The mountain is so low they have to manufacture snow and by mid Feb the middle to bottom of the mountain is slush or bare rock since the sun melts the snow immediately at that low of an Altitude. That was before “global warming had set in”.
Louis Hooffstetter says:
January 23, 2014 at 9:32 am
Exactly!
The biggest word in the English language is “if” (my bold in the above).
It is also the easiest word to use in cases of fraud and subterfuge.
And their “projections” qualify as both.
Ken Schlicte (in Climate Sceptics list) notes that regarding Vancouver “It is worth noting, however, that the NOAA National Climatic Data Center Climate at a Glance site at http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/ presents the official climate data indicating that meteorological winter (December – February) temperatures in the neighboring Northwest Region (Washington, Oregon and Idaho) have trended downward at a rate of 1.2 degrees F per decade over the last 20 years.
Dr. Viner said in 2000 that in 20 years time we will occasionally be taken by surprise. It only took around 10 years! Maybe they thought they were observing the climate instead of the decadal weather and natural climate oscillations.
The day is drawing nearer (as long as the surface temp standstill continues) when they will be humiliated – more.
Here they are with their predictions of warmer winters which failed. Then they promised us colder winters because of global warming. You have to feel sorry for these people, a con artist would advise that these people are clumsy at con, mere amateurs.
The “Sochi Situation” is proving to be a social and economic boondoggle. The now common threat of terrorist acts also raises the cost. These things are a greater problem for the Olympics than the weather.
But Jennifer Francis tells us that Global Warming weakens the Polar Vortex sending cold air down mid latitudes during boreal winter, that’s precisely where these ski resorts are located… So where is the problem Professor Scott? Either Francis’ stuff is made of hot air or your study is! LOL
So what is the forecast for the Sochi venues for the period of the games? Any chance of a polar vortex making its presence felt?
I see that the city itself is at 43.5 degrees north, compared with Chicago at around 42 degrees…
TomRude says:
January 23, 2014 at 2:42 pm
That precisely whet happens when a theory fails. Contradictions occur all the time because they don’t have a clue and are desperate to blame something on anything. Changing from global warming to Climate change was just a way of trying to hide these contradictions. Blaming everything on climate change just loses touch with proper science and reality.Confusion occurs and then it becomes obvious they have lost the plot.
If you go here:
http://weatherspark.com/averages/33852/2/Sochi-Krasnodarskiy-kray-Russian-Federation
you can see that the average daytime temperature for Sochi in February (as recorded at the airport) is in the high 40’s (F). Seems to me that it’s fairly unsuitable now, let alone by mid-century. Not that I think AGW will make a lick of difference in any event.
Did anyone check to make sure this isn’t an onion article?
I suggest using one location for both the winter and the summer games. Infrastucture, housing, security, supply services and everything needed could be taken care of much better when there is predictability in weather and future.
Therefore my suggestion is Hell, Michigan. I relieves everyone of the need to question temperatures in summer and since Hell does freeze over in the winter the only prediction necessary is how that correlates to upcoming season for the Cubs.
Hmmm…from the University of Waterloo. How’s the global warming thing going up there, then?
http://www.therecord.com/news-story/4301097-blizzard-warning-calls-for-dangerous-snow-conditions-monday-in-waterloo-region/
Yes, with bone-shattering cold in these northerly climes comes a relative lack of snow. That is much more likely to put these guys out of business than “global warming”. Next thing you know, we’ll be holding Winter Olympics in the Andes (but then, it’s likely they will have to become the “Summer Olympics”).
If Global Warming continues the way it has been lately, they’ll be able to hold the Winter Olympics in the Florida Panhandle.
Brian H says:
January 23, 2014 at 12:51 pm
On behalf of Canada, I apologize for this doofus.
I’d be inclined to accept but you also sent us Justin Bieber. Now, if you take him back …
University of Waterloo used to be a good University with lots of technical studies. Now they have joined the ranks of Simon Fraser (Burnaby, BC) and the University of Victoria. But then every University has a few Mad Men – pure PR and self aggrandizement – not much meat. Berkley comes to mind, probably a wrong thought but for some reason U Vic and Berkley are in the same mind cloud for me. Waterloo is joining them. Too bad. However Professor Scott does make some statements on the “positive” side of global warming, particularly relevant to a cold climate country like Canada.
Given the professor’s position at the UofW, this paper is in accordance with his teachings and his funding which allows him to travel/vacation in the Caribbean under the guise of studying climate change and tourism (ok, maybe that is harsh – read and decide for yourselves) :
http://uwaterloo.ca/geography-environmental-management/people-profiles/daniel-scott
http://uwaterloo.ca/environment/research/stories/daniel-scott
http://parca.uwaterloo.ca/team/principal-investigators/daniel-scott/
http://www.canadiangeographic.ca/magazine/oct10/discovery6.asp
http://www.chairs-chaires.gc.ca/chairholders-titulaires/profile-eng.aspx?profileId=1237
His work is completely in line with the mandate of the IPCC, which is not to study the cause of climate change, but to accept that humans are causing climate change and to work on from there. It is the same thing as watching a sic-fi thriller. You first have to buy into the premise, then all that follows makes sense. The result is you have thousands of academics (and others) working ignorantly on solutions to an ill defined problem so the result is what you would expect. Once you buy in, you are lost. Might as well be at the poker table in Las Vegas. Oh. Wait a minute. I think I could do a study on that ….
After the Vancouver Olympics ended, Vancouver went on to have one of the best ski seasons and snow conditions ever, allowing for skiing to be extended well past the usual closing date. This from a season pass holder who lives at the base of the North Shore mountains.
Climate change threatens Winter Olympics?
I don’t care. The Olympics are a waste of time and money.
Current weather conditions, forecast, data and alerts for Sochi. You can find very accurate weather data forecast, radar images and warnings related to the locations of the 22° Winter Games in Sochi in Russia.
http://www.sochi-weather.com/
Odd how the record has been altered. As a lifetime Calgary resident, who was an adult in 1988, let me attempt to set some of the faulty records straight.
The lowest temperature I remember in February was 1982, when it was below -40C. I know this because I had my first car, and on my way to work the radiator froze, causing an overheat (ironic, isn’t it?). And the highest temperature I remember was in 1992, when we had 28C. Oddly enough, 1992 was Pinatubo year, and the cooling that started later in the year resulted in a snowstorm on August 20 (whatever you’ve heard, this is VERY unusual in the inhabited parts of Canada).
In 1988 I used to go down to Olympic Plaza every night for the medals ceremony with a camcorder and randomly interview people. It was cold. Below -30C for the first few days, and some events were actually cancelled or delayed due to the extreme cold. Then a Chinook came through and it was Warm – like +18 for the last half. Some events that had been delayed were suffering from extreme melt, extreme wind, and mud.
What we learn from this: Calgary’s weather is extremely variable and it’s probably not the greatest place to have a winter Olympics, but it’s a damn sight better than Vancouver. The west coast of Canada is considered a rainforest, it rarely freezes, and is where Canadians retire when they’re sick of snow and cold. Putting the winter Olympics there was ridiculous.
For the rest of that little brochure, I can only say that sometimes you read something and wonder if it was written for a Monty Python skit. This is one of those things. It’s so patently ridiculous I was laughing through most of it.
I guess they have found a new meme. They said the same thing 4 years ago. And nothing has happened.