Top post for a day or two, new posts will appear below this one.
Normally quiet and reserved WeatherBell senior forecaster Joe D’Aleo (co-founder of the Weather Channel with John Coleman) almost never writes (email subject lines) like this. When he does, it gets my attention. A new forecast shows the cold blast in the eastern half of the USA extending well past Groundhog Day, Feb 2nd, according to their models. WeatherBell has had an excellent track record this winter so far. He says he hasn’t seen anything like it since 1918 when the big flu pandemic hit the USA. Have a look:
D’Aleo writes in a follow up email about the forecast graphic below.
This is the GFS model depiction of the mean anomaly (in degrees C) for the 16 day period through 12z on February 6th.
It covers the coldest period of the winter season climatologically in most areas. The other global models agree through at least 10 days. This is the most severe run thus far. We have been alerting clients to it for weeks. Here is the day by day anomaly for the mean of the GFS ensemble runs which agree on the steadiness and generally the severity of the cold.
The mainstream media blames it on global warming of course.http://news.yahoo.com/global-warming-freezing-104500272–politics.html
UCAR downplayed the last brutal cold as being brief unlike the cold of the 1970s and 1980s.http://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/opinion/10928/cold-but-brief
Lets revisit their insightful analysis after the next few weeks.
1917/18 and 1993/94 were winters Joe Bastardi and I have been looking at. See the similarity of the SSTA in the Pacific in Jan/Feb 1918 to this year.
January 1918:
January 2014:
That warm pool in the Gulf of Alaska drives the persistent Alaska and western ridge and downstream cold vortex. That year had an extremely cold January.
==========================================================
Powerful stuff. readers may recall that 1918 saw the great flu pandemic in the USA.
WeatherBell models expert Dr. Ryan Maue adds:
http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/425700249076654080
Meanwhile, weather, not climate, is hitting the US government hard:
Federal Government Shuts Down for Snow Storm Offices in Washington, D.C., are closed for the second time this winter.
Snow falling in Washington area; 4 to 7 inches expected, as flights canceled across US
Don’t worry, it’ll be hot somewhere, that will totally skew the totally meaningless “global temperature” via the Mannomatic or the Hansenomatic. Just wait, January 2014 HOTTEST EVER!!
Hoyle explicitly said that his team measured infrared signatures in space that they could only interpret experimently as desiccated cell bodies / membranes. Personally, I suspect that they missed discovering the extraterrestial carbon buckyballs that got Richard Smalley the Nobel prize.
wholesomehomes says: @ur momisugly January 22, 2014 at 9:46 pm
….We’re still much better off than most areas. Stay warm, Northerners!
>>>>>
I am in the sunny southeast (mid North Carolina) and it is &^%$ 14 °F (-10 °C) The normal Min. for today is 31 °F… BRRRrrrrr It is colder here than it is in Washington DC!
“One reason the flu is less apparent in summer is that the virus dies quickly in high humidity. It needs dry winter air to spread and flourish, which is why flu epidemics seem to disappear when spring arrives.”
Kolata, Gina (2011-04-01). Flu: The Story of the Great Influenza Pandemic of 1918 (p. 136). Farrar, Straus and Giroux. Kindle Edition.
More info on the flu and vaccines…(another science hoax?)
http://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2010/04/06/could–the-us-surgeon-general-be-the-real-cause-of-massive-1918-flu-deaths.aspx
I wonder if Joe D’Aleo or Joe Bastardi think this prolonged period of cold weather is any indication of what this Summer will exhibit. Moreover, I wonder if they believe that we are headed for a little Ice Age as Russian scientist Habibullo Abdusamatov has forecasted (as early as 2014).
Jtom says:
January 22, 2014 at 1:28 pm
“Mark Maguire: Wow, NG prices blew way past my mark of $4.50 this morning, so I only put a stop-order in. Price went up further, so I raised my stop this afternoon. They are forecasting the price to hit $5, and storage to drop to 1.256 T cu ft by end of March. Tomorrow’s report on the current draw-down rate will help show where we are headed. Yeh, 1 T level would be a stretch, but two or three more of these Arctic air blasts would have us knocking on the door.”
Looking at current storage, after todays EIA storage stat -107bcf we are -491 bcf lower than last year, so if drawdowns are over 200bcf more than last year, we would have a shot at ending the season at 1Tcf.
http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html
Late last Winter and early Spring saw sustained big drawdowns that went a couple of weeks later than usual and caused ng prices to rally after mid Feb 2013.
It would be hard to beat that chilly weather but if this pattern continues……….we could have a shot.
IF we close lower on your ngk4, its a reversal lower after the spike higher to new highs for the moves and looks bad. The spike higher overnight probably was panic buying, short covering.
Gail Combs says:
January 23, 2014 at 4:35 am
[…]
I am in the sunny southeast (mid North Carolina) and it is &^%$ 14 °F (-10 °C) The normal Min. for today is 31 °F… BRRRrrrrr It is colder here than it is in Washington DC!
Gail, you were so terribly smug about how you’d done all your snow shovelling for life. I can’t help thinking you brought this on yourself…:)
Stephen
Stephen Fox says:….
It is cold but no snow. We see snow about once every five years. Since the drive is a 1/2 mile gravel drive and I am retired there is no way I am shoveling again. That is what a well stocked freezer and a cupboard full of tea is for. :>)