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Normally quiet and reserved WeatherBell senior forecaster Joe D’Aleo (co-founder of the Weather Channel with John Coleman) almost never writes (email subject lines) like this. When he does, it gets my attention. A new forecast shows the cold blast in the eastern half of the USA extending well past Groundhog Day, Feb 2nd, according to their models. WeatherBell has had an excellent track record this winter so far. He says he hasn’t seen anything like it since 1918 when the big flu pandemic hit the USA. Have a look:
D’Aleo writes in a follow up email about the forecast graphic below.
This is the GFS model depiction of the mean anomaly (in degrees C) for the 16 day period through 12z on February 6th.
It covers the coldest period of the winter season climatologically in most areas. The other global models agree through at least 10 days. This is the most severe run thus far. We have been alerting clients to it for weeks. Here is the day by day anomaly for the mean of the GFS ensemble runs which agree on the steadiness and generally the severity of the cold.
The mainstream media blames it on global warming of course.http://news.yahoo.com/global-warming-freezing-104500272–politics.html
UCAR downplayed the last brutal cold as being brief unlike the cold of the 1970s and 1980s.http://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/opinion/10928/cold-but-brief
Lets revisit their insightful analysis after the next few weeks.
1917/18 and 1993/94 were winters Joe Bastardi and I have been looking at. See the similarity of the SSTA in the Pacific in Jan/Feb 1918 to this year.
January 1918:
January 2014:
That warm pool in the Gulf of Alaska drives the persistent Alaska and western ridge and downstream cold vortex. That year had an extremely cold January.
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Powerful stuff. readers may recall that 1918 saw the great flu pandemic in the USA.
WeatherBell models expert Dr. Ryan Maue adds:
http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/425700249076654080
Meanwhile, weather, not climate, is hitting the US government hard:
Federal Government Shuts Down for Snow Storm Offices in Washington, D.C., are closed for the second time this winter.
Snow falling in Washington area; 4 to 7 inches expected, as flights canceled across US
And on Feb 10, NOAA is going to tell us that January 2014 was the hottest January ever recorded.
For the 35 years I have lived in his meteorological shadow, Joe has always been way ahead of the weather. One more TD for my All Star.
Umm, readers might remember that 1918 saw a global influenza pandemic. The spread was probably highlighted by the return home of millions of men from the Great War, many in cramped and somewhat insanitary conditions, already weakened by their experiences over the preceding 4 years.
If an example must be used to show the effects of a particular weather situation, please use a valid one.
I don’t remember 1993/94 but I sure do remember Jan/Feb 1996, which did break or tie state records in my neck of the woods. Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin.
Are we talking that level of cold, yet, anywhere?
That pretty much lines up with Canadian forecast for the Canadian portion impacted by this system.
During this time period on Feb 2nd I here there will be some kind of outdoor event played in New Jersey. Foosball maybe?
Really, Joe is THAT old? Wow!
“Joe D’Aleo … says he hasn’t seen anything like it since 1918 when the big flu pandemic hit the USA.”
Sorry! Just could not resist…
…and when this was happening in Europe
They were claiming global warming here
Your discussing Influenza Outbreaks, I was experimenting with Arctic Oscillation Numbers Since 1948, It seems Arctic blocking trends don’t only matter over the Winter, but the long term 2 Year AO Average matches up well with Flu outbreaks. It would be valid to say maybe we should be looking at +TNH/-EPO patterns that overide the +AO pattern as well as a mode to test with Influenza. (As that is the mode we have seen most as of late) See Graphic: http://pbs.twimg.com/media/BZLBxS_CUAAwoJJ.jpg:large
albertalad says:
January 21, 2014 at 12:18 pm
That pretty much lines up with Canadian forecast for the Canadian portion impacted by this system.
This is a very straightforward situation for the weather models to handle. A big longwave pattern over North America with the upper ridge anchored over the west and huge very cold trough in the east. A pattern that is not going anywhere in any haste.
Richard of NZ says: “Umm, readers might remember that 1918 saw a global influenza pandemic. The spread was probably highlighted by the return home of millions of men from the Great War, many in cramped and somewhat insanitary conditions, already weakened by their experiences over the preceding 4 years.”
My mother lived through that period. She (a nurse) recalled that people who insisted on staying active and going to work had the highest mortality. She never mentioned servicemen as particularly vulnerable. Her brother was in France at the time.
The mention of the flu outbreak seems like a non sequitur, unless there’s actually some evidence of a direct relationship (which I’m open to). Just seems like sensationalism otherwise.
As for the closing of D.C.; we should have a constant snow storm there, then maybe our economy could actually heal. (Though I realize it would take something much more than that to keep the meddlers at bay.)
What drives the warm pool near Alaska and is there any correlation with changes in the upwelling (associated with the global thermohaline circulation) that occurs in the northern Pacific?
They’ll still blame
global warming‘climate change’. Now if this was unusually mild weather they would still blameglobal warming‘climate change’. No matter what happens it’s global warming or climate change. Heck, even I blame climate change – the naturally occurring kind.strike fail! I’ll try again.
They’ll still blame
global warming‘climate change’. Now if this was unusually mild weather they would still blameglobal warming‘climate change’. No matter what happens it’s global warming or climate change. Heck, even I blame climate change – the naturally occuring kind.1918 was between one of the strongest La Nina years (1917) and the strongest El Nino years (1919) in the observational record. Given that, it seems likely to me that we are seeing a precursor to transition from ENSO neutral conditions to a significant El Nino. At the moment it looks like forecast models are in agreement with this:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif
I would note that I independently Identified a connection between the warm anomaly in the North Pacific and the US weather pattern then extant back in December; at the time, Florida was actually relatively warm, in spite of everywhere else being cold, so I identified other years where that was true for the whole month of December:
http://devoidofnulls.files.wordpress.com/2013/12/decemberscolduswarmflorida48on.png
Later that warm anomaly moved closer to the West Coast of the US/Canada, which pushed the cold anomalies East, which eventually caused even Florida to cool down. It looks like this process has continued and will continue for a while yet.
Of course, if we get an El Nino, we could probably get cold weather persisting in the Southeast, including *next* winter as well.
Richard of NZ says: “Umm, readers might remember that 1918 saw a global influenza pandemic….
It is now know that most of those fatalities were actually the result of aspirin toxicity. Medicos were dispensing the stuff by the half-handful hourly. Once toxic symptoms showed, back off a bit. Look it up.
If this keeps up the Government could be closed until March and the economy might recover.
I think the ENSO neutral phase may have someting to do why we are having the cold weather so far south regularly this winter in addition to the polar vortex issue. Weak westerlies allow cold Arctic air to penetrate far south .. A blocking high along US west coast does not allow westerlies to sweep the cold air away either. On the Canadian side, 13 out the last 20 Neutral winters were very cold .on the National level [coast to coast]. In United States , 15 Januaries in 20 Neutral winters were extra cold. This moderated after 1998 somewhat , but now the pattern is reappearing
Don’t forget that the Farmer’s Almanac predicted this back in August for the Super Bowl….
http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/9599339/farmers-almanac-predicts-super-bowl-storm
Can a Rex Block end an interglacial?
@richard of NZ:
While that was part of the issue (soldiers) there were other circumstances as well… Not the least of which was the H1N1 type of the virus. It causes the immune system to go to overdrive and attack the person. That’s why the most healthy and the young were most likely to die from it. Lots of “20 somethings” with great immune systems…
Oddly, the flu this year is also H1N1 as (finally) enough folks with H1N1 antibodies have died off that that particular ‘remix’ can have a go again… One can only hope that vaccination and the availability of cytocine suppressing drugs can thwart it this time.
Oh, and lots of cold did put all those folks inside in close proximity. The pandemic WAS global, not just among waring nations… So could a better example be found? Maybe. But this one isn’t all that bad…
Powerful stuff. readers may recall that 1918 saw the great flu pandemic in the USA.
If I recall my history, in 1918 there was still some question about the role viruses played in illnesses. The concept of viral infection was a relatively new idea at the time, let alone how to deal with same. Someone with a better understanding of early 20th century medicine and theory may be able to correct me or offer a better overview.
This is just a taste of what living under the new regime of global cooling that I’ve forecasted will be here officially by mid-December 2017 will be like.
We are now in the transition period between solar-forced global warming (good for the Earth) and solar-forced global cooling, which is bad for the Earth.
This anomalous winter of 2014 shows how the circumpolar vortex forces itself south, deeper into the northern hemisphere, and it will even affect the southern hemisphere and those trade winds in the future.
Prepare yourselves accordingly, as my calculations have global cooling lasting for approximately 36 years (2017-2053) with the deepest cold, wet conditions along with bouts of drought, that also features brutal sub-zero temperatures during winter seasons to peak in the mid-2030s.
All those who claimed that ‘global warming’ was ‘bad’ for the Earth will pray and wish for global warming to return as they burn all the carbon they can get their hands to stay warm and keep from freezing to death.
Global cooling IS on the way people, that’s a fact.
– Theodore White, astrometeorologist.Sci
Weatherspark has a continuous temperature graph. I just did a quick peek and it looks like my town in southern Wisconsin has only been above freezing for about 60 hours since 12:01 am on Dec 5th.