By Paul Homewood
There was an interesting report in last Sunday’s Telegraph about recent flooding in the Somerset Levels. I’ll not reprint the whole thing, but would certainly recommend reading it.
The essence of the article is that the flooding there, which began late last month and peaked on 1st January, are the worst in living memory.
Now, anyone familiar with this part of England will know that the Levels are notorious for winter flooding, and have been since time immemorial. Indeed, according to Wikipedia, one explanation for the county of Somerset’s name is that, in prehistory, because of winter flooding people restricted their use of the Levels to the summer, leading to a derivation from Sumorsaete, meaning land of the summer people.
And, of course, King Alfred hid away from the Vikings at Athelney, in the middle of the Levels, protected by impenetrable swamps.
Consequently, when someone says “the worst in living memory”, I tend to get the pinch of salt ready! But when a farmer, whose house is flooded for the second time in just over a year, tells us that it had not been flooded for the previous 88 years, you have to treat the matter seriously. To quote the Telegraph:
For the moment, he and his partner, Linda, are living upstairs at Horsey Farm, because the ground floor of the building has been flooded.
“The carpets have gone, the floorboards will have to come up, the plaster will have to come off the walls, we will have to start all over again,” he says. They only returned to the property nine weeks ago, having been out of it since a similar flood in November 2012.
“Before that the house had not been flooded for 88 years, that’s the point,” he says. “People lived here for centuries without it being as bad as this. Something is definitely going wrong. The water levels have gone right up.”
So, is this all evidence that climate change is making floods worse, as many would have us believe? Let’s take a look at the Met Office data. I have outlined in red the rough area we are looking at .
As can be seen, although December rainfall was higher than average, it was not abnormally so. I have also included the November map, to show that that month was around or below average for Somerset, so there is no evidence of a long term build up of water.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/anomacts
We can also look at the December rainfall trends for SW England & S Wales. The area covered by this region is shown below. Although this region covers a wider range than just Somerset, a look at the above December map indicates that much of the region was wetter than the part we are concerned with. In other words, the regional stats probably overestimate the rainfall anomaly for Somerset.
Figure 1
The graph makes clear that last month’s rainfall was not unusual in any way. Since 1910, it ranks as the 19th wettest, in other words a once every 5 year event. The rain in December does not even compare with years such as 1934, when 307mm was recorded. In fact, it is noticeable that all of the really wet Decembers occurred prior to 1970.
Taking all months of the year, rather than just December, there have been 70 months with higher rainfall than December 2013. On average, therefore, the region would expect to see rainfall amounts as high as, or higher than, last month at some stage of the year every year or two.
We can also look at the stats for the local station of Yeovilton, about 20 miles to the south of the Levels, rather than the region as a whole.
The Met Office data, which runs back to 1964, shows 121mm rainfall for December 2013. However, the Telegraph article mentions that torrential rain on New Year’s Day made the floods worse, and a check with Weather Underground shows 18mm that day, so I have added that onto the Met Office’s December figure. (It is also worth pointing out that since 1st January, rainfall amounts have been close to average for January).
The resulting 139mm would represent the 14th wettest month since 1964, so about a once in three year occurrence. Given the evidence in Figure 1, it seems likely that many more such months would have occurred prior to 1964.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/yeoviltondata.txt
Figure 2
It is utterly clear that there has been nothing unusual about levels of rainfall, so what has been going on in Somerset? This is where the locals in Muchelney make their views plain.
There is, however, one awkward challenge that has to be made to the villagers. The Somerset Levels were built to flood. The name of the village derives from the Saxon for “great island”. If people choose to live on a historic floodplain, how can they possibly complain when it floods?
“Yes, the fields are meant to flood, but it is too much now,” says Maxine Grice, a long-time resident of Muchelney. “It comes too quickly and it stays too long. It used to happen every 10 years and it was never this deep. People have been flooded lately who never were before. It’s because the rivers haven’t been dredged over the last 20 years. They have silted up.”
Others villagers agree this is why the flood levels have risen catastrophically. They blame the Environment Agency for neglecting the local rivers, which have now silted up so much that they can only carry a third of the water they used to. The theory is that this leaves the rivers unable to cope in the rain when extra water is also sent from Taunton and Bridgwater, from where it is pumped away to protect new homes built on former floodplains.
“We are being sacrificed in order to help those towns,” says Ms Wilson-Ward. “Yes, we are a small village but we are still taxpayers, we still need to protect our houses and our businesses like everyone else. The Environment Agency need to pull their fingers out, apply for whatever money they need, start dredging, get people down here and start fixing things.”
Final Thoughts
Similar complaints have been raised many times in recent years, but this case gives us real evidence that such concerns are justified.
Whilst Somerset is only one part of the country, and the performance of the Environment Agency may be better elsewhere, it is important that, if flooding problems are to be resolved, the actual causes are identified, so they can be acted on.
It really does not help the inhabitants of Muchelney, or the thousands of others affected by floods, when David Cameron, Corinne Le Quere, Chris Smith and the rest blame them on climate change, and think that building lots of wind farms will make things better.
Perhaps some of the money spent fighting climate change should be diverted to repairing our neglected flood defences and drainage systems.
Unfortunately, it is sometimes easier hiding behind excuses than taking the responsibility to do something about a problem. And it is also very convenient when those excuses support a political agenda.
Update
Christopher Booker, who lives in Somerset, made similar comments about the failure of the Environment Agency to dredge the rivers there. He also suggests there is a desire amongst many at the Agency to see the Levels return to the swampy wilderness that existed prior to the 17thC, when they were drained
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“Natural England is an Executive Non-departmental Public Body responsible to the Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. Our purpose is to protect and improve England’s natural environment and encourage people to enjoy and get involved in their surroundings.”
http://www.naturalengland.org.uk/ourwork/farming/funding/closedschemes/esa/somersetlevelsandmoors.aspx
“ESA management options
There were three main management options available within the Somerset Levels and Moors ESA:
Maintenance of extensive grassland by restrictions on cultivation, under-drainage and the use of inorganic fertilisers, and the maintenance of water levels, ditches, gutters, trees and pollarded willows. No features of historical interest must be damaged or destroyed.
The enhancement of wet grassland by controlling water levels, and in addition to the restrictions above there are also restrictions on stocking rates, winter sheep grazing, cultivation, mowing dates and fertiliser use.
The maintenance of grassland by raised water levels (such that splash areas are maintained during the spring) and no fertiliser input.”
I wonder which one of the three main management options were chosen??????????
There appears to be something more fundamental as the root causes of flooding, not just in Somerset but throughout the UK.
Ignore the fact that this is a reference to the Daily Mail, just read the article: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2541773/Drowned-EU-millions-Thought-extreme-weather-blame-floods-Wrong-The-real-culprit-European-subsidies-pay-UK-farmers-destroy-trees-soak-storm.html#ixzz2qpqBypa4
I then researched the The Pontbren Farmers Group which confirmed the basis for the DM article:
http://www.pontbrenfarmers.co.uk/index.html
It just highlights the fact that UK Politicians are just as ignorant and dogmatic about Environment matters as they are about Climate Science.
RE Snape
I’m not convinced that monthly rainfall averages are useful in assessing the connection with sudden flooding. Lots of rain at the end of one month and at the start of the next could cause flooding but each month could look average.
@Maxbert
“environmental agencies do everything they can to impede the maintenance of lowland drainage systems, aiming to return the floodplain to “natural” wetland conditions”
Correct in this case.RSPB, Defra, EA, Natural England have all colluded to re-wet parts of the Levels and this is in part responsible for the floods. There are large parts of the catchment where sluices pen the drainage in (and keep the sea out) until low tide when advantage should be taken of the very high tidal range to allow the freshwater out. Control of the means to drain this extremely low-lying area is part of the plot to keep land saturated for the benefit of birds and their watchers – as is bribery of farmers using public money to sacrifice their land-use.
It is good to see that my previous comments about river maintenance have been vindicated above.
In Lincolnshire, where part of the fens are below sea level, there are local River Boards who oversee river maintenance and so far we have been free of floods, though Boston was flooded recently that town is outside the responsibility of the boards. So dredging works. EA please note.
I will add that there is no such thing as a ”former” flood plain.
I am surprised that the Somerset farmers have not got together to form their own River Boards and clear rivers themselves. Most farmers have some type of earth mover/JCB so get to work and help your locals.
Draycote’s Falcon
Margaret Beckett when I lived in Derby South had the opinion that “it may already be too late” to stop CAGW, I can’t speak for the others but I had that response when complaining to her. as my MP, about wind follies being constructed within the Derby City boundary. Unfortunately they have now been constructed, but I live in France now so am no longer directly affected.
Local newspaper report here:
http://www.derbytelegraph.co.uk/giant-wind-turbines-makes-mark-city-skyline/story-20306613-detail/story.html
The solution?
1. A radical cull of the bureaucracy at the UK’s Environmental Agency, especially at senior levels. Start with anyone associated with Greenpeace or Friends of the Earth, as they can be guaranteed to know absolutely nothing about anything useful.
2. Return to the practices prior to the formation of this bureaucratic boondoggle by Britain’s
Labour Party, whose only political policy is/was: “if it sounds trendy and employs lots of new bureaucrats, do it.”
3. Look around the world and find someone who really knows what they are doing in the field of flood prevention and bring them in to establish sensible work practices and protocols.
Any chance of any of this happening? Absolutely not, it is much easier and trendier to blame global warming, climate change or whatever.
In the UK, where all the political parties (with the exception of UKIP) are led by card carrying ecoloons, doing the right thing on flood prevention is not considered politically expedient – there are no votes there, so these prats can be guaranteed to blame global warming etc. and then do absolutely nothing.
Stephen Potter’s “Lifesmanship Correspondence College” was (is?) headquartered in Yeovil. I hope it hasn’t been affected!
From Fox News: Pauchari: Communism best system to fight AGW:
Communism is the McDonald of mass murder: http://www.foxnews.com/on-air/the-five/article/2014/01/17/un-climate-chief-communism-best-fight-global-warming
Now that doesn’t this all fit like a glove with UN Agenda 21 and Obama spreading the Wealth and all other “PROPAGANDA” to bring the world on the verge of another period of human disasters including mass murder on an epic scale……..!!!!!!
johnmarshall says;
January 19th 2.46am
Firstly sorry, I don’t quite understand the protocol of replying to someone, so apologies if the above is wrong.
The reason why farmers have not got on and cleared the rivers themselves is that it is not allowed by the EA. You have to apply, pay, do environmental studies, impact reports, draw up plans, confer with at least 6 different managers, and then you may be allowed to do some work near or on the river. Some years ago, the EA took ownership of the rivers. The riparian owners have duties and some rights. They do not own the water, cannot do any work, or plant anything within 7 meters (I think without looking it up) unless there is approval from the EA. There is, unfortunately no longer the possibility of farmers or riparian owners taking this into their own hands. We are just told we don’t understand the ecology of the system and will do untold damage.
I started my engineering career with Essex River Authority, whose area included much of the coast devestated in 1953. There priority was given to clearing weeds from rivers, mainatining embankments and making sure that gangs were out during heavy rainfall to clear blockages. Result – little or no flooding.
Much later (1990s) I was responsible for the design of town centre improvements in Kidderminster which included river improvements. My designs lead to a reduction in peak flood levels of more than a metre, effectively alleviating flooding of the town centre.
When it came to getting EA approval I came up against engineers and environmentalists. The environmentalists ruled and insisted upon all sorts of cascades, reed planters, etc, none of which probably ever got maintained. In fact keeping rivers in good condition seemed an anathema to the arrogant reed huggers who ruled.
I was a Chartered Environmentalist until retirement, but my Institution got hijacked, soviet style, about 6 years ago. Now, although they dont bother to consider what members think or believe, they peddle only climate change, biodiversity and sustainability, and wont listen to anyone who dissagrees.
Thank goodness the people in Somerset are raising their voices and telling the world the truth, that its down to simple maintenance, not CO2, or 4x4s.
William Baird
I wonder if the mentioned farmer is one of those who have, over the last 40 years, been pulling out hedgerows and piping and filling ditches to make larger fields allowing for larger machinery? Here in agricultural Essex the finger of blame for the large pools in the fields and floods across the roads can point straight at that.
Son of Mulder
I’m not convinced that monthly rainfall averages are useful in assessing the connection with sudden flooding. Lots of rain at the end of one month and at the start of the next could cause flooding but each month could look average.
Certainly a good point.
The Met Office daily data is not available yet, but according to Weather Underground (which I don’t fully trust) the rain in December began around 13th Dec, and culminated on 1st Jan.
I would not have thought that such an amount of rain spread over two to three weeks would be so unusual.
Bear in mind as well that the ground should not have been saturated after a relatively dry November.
@johnmarshall. Farmers could do the work themselves but they won’t because of the beaucracy and fines from the EA for doing work without permission. Everything, down to the smallest detail, is regulated.
Peter:
I’m in north Devon. I would estimate that the peak river flow here over the last month has been no more than 10% of the peak I’ve seen twice in the last 6 years.
The village name Muchelney means ‘great island’. That might have given residents a clue.
The BBC has a story on what caused the floods on the Thames!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-25793358
Like Philip Bratby, I too have a river at the bottom of my garden. Well, it’s more of a glorified stream and can hardly be dignified with the name, ‘river’, but it feeds the Avon, which can.
Although it’s a small river it can rise 15′ very quickly and this is down to flow control. Above all things, whether the river is dredged or not (and the EA have refused to dredge ours), the trick to managing flood is to have control of the flow rate.
On our river there are regularly defined flood plains; in fact, my lower garden is defined as such, and it is the control of the flooding of these up river which will decide whether down-river homes flood – as we came very close to in 1998, 2007, and not so close in 2012.
But the 2007 flood was the clincher. As it occurred in July, the rather apocryphal story has grown up that the person responsible for the flood control gates up stream from me had gone on holiday and no-one knew where the keys to the control gates were. Consequently they remained open and our village was flooded. In 2012, the gates were controlled and all that happened was the flood plains filled, as designed.
Like I said, it’s really a case of flow control. But AGW gives the powers-that-be a good reason to wring there hands and say that nothing can be done. The epitome of a commitment to failure.
There was a group of people, in and around 1600BC, that had a solution to this rubbish! Failed! Maybe we need to learn from the French?
@ur momisugly Draycote’s Falcon – I fear you (or anyone else) would have zero chance of successfully pursuing a fraud case against this lot. Author and blogger Richard North’s son Peter has been fighting his local council and their bailiffs over the corrupt practices they employ to collect parking fines. They are trying every trick in the book to avoid prosecution for fraud, and the police are simply turning a blind eye:
http://southgloucestershirecouncilarecrooks.blogspot.co.uk/
There is a pattern of bureaucrats and enviro extremists blaming the bad out comes of their policies on bogeymen to avoid accountability. “Climate” is the current favorite.
Does Natural England intend to return the Fens to saltmarsh, with causeways connecting the scattered islands? Even in historical times, lots of England was under water before drainage. With the south of Great Britain sinking as the north rebounds from the lost weight of ice, the flooding may get worse, but would be natural.
Occams Razor strikes again.
Maybe some people and councils scream ‘climate change’ so they can get some of the loverly government money, set aside for the terrible consequences caused by ‘climate change’.