Yesterday, my local reservoir, Lake Oroville, made the front page of Drudge. The photo below shows the Highway 162 suspension bridge and the Bidwell Marina, which is almost in the center of the lake now. The last time I was there at this very spot in September, boat launch ramps were still operable. From what I hear now, they are past the asphalt and down to mud for anyone that dares to try.
Below are two photos from the NASA MODIS imaging system that show California from the Los Angeles area north to the Oregon border. One if from January 13th, 2013, and the other is from January 14th, 2014.
The lack of snowpack in the northern Sierra Nevada is quite significant and the visual difference between years is stunning.
On Thursday, I was on Shasta Lake north of Redding, CA and took this photo of the Interstate 5 bridge crossing the reservoir. While you can’t see it in this photo, there still is water under the bridge. Shasta is the largest reservoir in California, and is down from its historical average by nearly half.
Of course, this is hardly new, low water levels have been seen on this lake before, such as in September 2005:
What is new is that the lake level is so low in winter, there’s no appreciable inflow, it continues to drop, AND there’s little snow-pack to replenish it.The US drought monitor shows the current situation:
![20140114_usdm_home[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/20140114_usdm_home1.png?quality=75)
Plus, California population has increased dramatically while water storage has not. That’s a testament to poor planning and the hands of environmentalists and their campaigns to stop new water storage systems. Some are saying this drought is in “uncharted territory”.
“Uncharted territory” has been a phrase spoken by many during recent water conversations. The population in California has doubled since 1977, many more permanent crops have been planted and more refuges established.
Source: http://www.chicoer.com/news/ci_24939467/governors-drought-declaration-leaves-no-doubt-butte-county
And the cause of this? Certainly not “global warming” though I’m sure the activist idiots will use every trick in the book to try to create a linkage. The cause is a the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and a weak to neutral and persistent La Niña pattern that some are calling “La Nada”. Bob Tisdale has a good summary on the PDO situation and how it is also related to “the pause” in global warming. The ocean rules the climate system.
The paper Chylek et al describes the linkage of ocean cycles to climate of the southwestern USA.
In the graph below, you can see that pattern has been in place since the strong La Niña of 2010. In 1997/98 when the huge El Niño occurred, California had so much water that dams were full and fears of flooding abounded. You can also see the long stretch of drought in the mid to late 1970’s reflected in this graph.
Yesterday, Governor Brown declared a drought emergency, which is probably a bit too late. He held up this graph showing precipitation by water year. In California, a water year is from July 1st to June 30th.
Here’s the source of data for that graph, showing that Governor Brown’s graph doesn’t quite tell the entire story since the peaks are muted and only the filtered values are used. His graph also only goes back to 1970. The next closest dry year was 1898, so the idea that this is “uncharted territory” for California is an accurate statement.
Here is the PR from the Governor’s office yesterday:
=============================================================
SAN FRANCISCO – With California facing water shortfalls in the driest year in recorded state history, Governor Edmund G. Brown Jr. today proclaimed a State of Emergency and directed state officials to take all necessary actions to prepare for these drought conditions.
“We can’t make it rain, but we can be much better prepared for the terrible consequences that California’s drought now threatens, including dramatically less water for our farms and communities and increased fires in both urban and rural areas,” said Governor Brown. “I’ve declared this emergency and I’m calling all Californians to conserve water in every way possible.”
In the State of Emergency declaration, Governor Brown directed state officials to assist farmers and communities that are economically impacted by dry conditions and to ensure the state can respond if Californians face drinking water shortages. The Governor also directed state agencies to use less water and hire more firefighters and initiated a greatly expanded water conservation public awareness campaign (details at saveourh2o.org).
In addition, the proclamation gives state water officials more flexibility to manage supply throughout California under drought conditions.
State water officials say that California’s river and reservoirs are below their record lows. Manual and electronic readings record the snowpack’s statewide water content at about 20 percent of normal average for this time of year.
The Governor’s drought State of Emergency follows a series of actions the administration has taken to ensure that California is prepared for record dry conditions. In May 2013, Governor Brown issued an Executive Order to direct state water officials to expedite the review and processing of voluntary transfers of water and water rights. In December, the Governor formed a Drought Task Force to review expected water allocations, California’s preparedness for water scarcity and whether conditions merit a drought declaration. Earlier this week, the Governor toured the Central Valley and spoke with growers and others impacted by California’s record dry conditions.
=============================================================
And what is on the horizon? Hopefully an El Niño, which will also get blamed on/connected to “global warming”. if the Nino 3.4 model ensemble is to be believed, then California will likely see a strong precipitation rebound in 2014/2015.
From the WUWT ENSO Reference Page:
![nino34Mon[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/nino34mon1.gif)
UPDATE: This stament from NOAA is relevant. (h/t to Roger Pielke Sr.)
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
800 PM PDT FRI JAN 17 2014
...GOVERNOR JERRY BROWN DECLARES A DROUGHT STATE OF EMERGENCY FOR
CALIFORNIA ON JANUARY 17TH 2014...
...THE USDA HAS DECLARED A DROUGHT DESIGNATION FOR SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY FOR 2014 FOR ELIGIBLE AGRICULTURAL PRODUCERS...
...EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA...
SYNOPSIS...
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA HAVE EXPERIENCED TWO BELOW
AVERAGE RAINFALL SEASONS RESULTING IN A REDUCTION IN RESERVOIR AND
GROUNDWATER LEVELS IN SOME AREAS. THE MUCH DRIER THAN USUAL
VEGETATION FOR MID-WINTER HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A HEIGHTENED WILDFIRE
CONCERN. THESE CONDITIONS WERE ELEVATED TO AN EXTREME DROUGHT
DEPICTION (D3) ON THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR MAPS WITHIN ORANGE COUNTY
IN MID JANUARY 2014. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR CLASSIFIES DROUGHT
INTO FIVE CATEGORIES OF INCREASING SEVERITY: ABNORMALLY DRY
(D0)...MODERATE DROUGHT (D1)...SEVERE DROUGHT (D2)...EXTREME DROUGHT
(D3)...AND EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4).
PLEASE NOTE THAT NEITHER NOAA NOR THE NWS DECLARES DROUGHTS.
DROUGHTS IN THE STATE OF CALIFORNIA ARE DECLARED BY THE GOVERNOR
THROUGH THE RECOMMENDATION OF THE CALIFORNIA STATE DEPARTMENT OF
WATER RESOURCES AND THE STATE CLIMATOLOGIST. HOWEVER...LOCAL
OFFICIALS CAN DECLARE LOCAL DROUGHT OR WATER EMERGENCIES AT TIMES
WHEN THE STATE OF CALIFORNIA HAS NOT DECLARED AN OFFICIAL DROUGHT.
LOCAL WATER PURVEYORS CAN ALSO IMPLEMENT VOLUNTARY OR MANDATORY
RESTRICTIONS ON WATER USAGE IN RESPONSE TO CURRENT OR FORECAST WATER
SUPPLY CONDITIONS REGARDLESS OF DROUGHT DECLARATIONS. THIS DROUGHT
STATEMENT PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF PERTINENT INFORMATION TO ENHANCE
PUBLIC AWARENESS OF DROUGHT OR ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS.
SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...
AT THIS TIME...IMPACTS HAVE BEEN LIMITED IN EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE DUE TO THE AVAILABILITY OF IMPORTED WATER.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF PRECIPITATION HAS ALLOWED VEGETATION TO DRY TO
CRITICAL LEVELS IN MANY AREAS...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR
WILDFIRES. THE WARM AND DRY WEATHER HAS ALSO REDUCED THE
AVAILABILITY OF RANGE LAND GRASSES FOR LIVESTOCK. WHERE LOCAL WELLS
ARE FED BY RAINFALL AND LOCAL RUNOFF...SOME SHALLOW WELLS MAY BE
GOING DRY OR HAVE ALREADY DRIED UP. IN ADDITION...THE LACK OF
RAINFALL AND RUNOFF THIS WINTER HAS LOWERED THE FLOW IN THE SAN
DIEGO RIVER...RESULTING IN STRESSES ON THE VEGETATION AND
WILDLIFE.
CLIMATE SUMMARY...
ORANGE COUNTY HAS BEEN ONE OF THE DRIEST AREAS IN OUR REGION OVER
THE PAST FEW YEARS. WESTERN REGION CLIMATE CENTER RECORDS FROM THE
SANTA ANA FIRE STATION INDICATE 2013 WAS THE THIRD DRIEST...AND THE
THREE YEAR PERIOD ENDING DECEMBER 2013 WAS THE FIFTH DRIEST. RAINS
HAVE BEEN MORE GENEROUS FARTHER SOUTH IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY WHERE
LINDBERGH FIELD LOGS BOTH 2013 AND THE THREE YEAR PERIOD 2010-2013
AS ONLY THE 20TH DRIEST ON RECORD.
A WELL-DEVELOPED MONSOON IN LATE SUMMER HELPED TO RAISE SEASONAL
RAINFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
PRECIPITATION SUMMARY FOR SELECTED CITIES...
DECEMBER 2013 SINCE JULY 1 2013
REPORTED % OF NORMAL REPORTED % OF NORMAL
NEWPORT BEACH 0.31 17% 0.69 20%
TUSTIN 0.98 41% 1.91 41%
IDYLLWILD 1.47 40% 7.77 80%
RIVERSIDE 0.16 10% 1.15 36%
PALM SPRINGS TRACE 0% 1.26 45%
BIG BEAR LAKE 1.02 33% 5.50 70%
REDLANDS 0.16 10% 2.54 61%
EL MIRAGE 0.03 4% 2.14 101%
BORREGO SPRINGS 0.00 0% 4.35 168%
CAMPO 0.78 34% 5.57 100%
LAKE CUYAMACA 1.71 35% 11.88 99%
LINDBERGH FIELD 0.46 30% 2.24 68%
PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF JANUARY
WITH THE LATEST AVAILABLE GLOBAL MODELS HOLDING A STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST COAST.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK FOR FEBRUARY IS INDICATING A
BETTER THAN 70% CHANCE OF CONTINUED DRIER AND WARMER THAN AVERAGE
WEATHER.
HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
WITH NO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...NO
SIGNIFICANT INCREASES CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREA RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS.
THE LATEST U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK CALLS FOR DROUGHT
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST OR INTENSIFY THROUGH MARCH 2014.
NEXT SCHEDULED ISSUANCE DATE...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY
FEBRUARY 17TH...OR SOONER IF NECESSARY...IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN CONDITIONS.
&&
RELATED WEBSITES...
GOVERNORS EMERGENCY PROCLAMATION: WWW.GOV.CA.GOV/NEWS.PHP?ID18368.
CALIFORNIA DATA EXCHANGE CENTER: CDEC.WATER.CA.GOV/
CALIFORNIA NEVADA RIVER FORECAST CENTER: WWW.CNRFC.NOAA.GOV/
DROUGHT MONITOR: DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU
U.S. DROUGHT PORTAL: HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.GOV/DROUGHT/
CALIFORNIA DROUGHT PAGE: WATERSUPPLYCONDITIONS.WATER.CA.GOV/
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER: WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO: WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/SGX/
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
DROUGHT MONITOR
NATIONAL INTEGRATED DROUGHT INFORMATION SYSTEM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD
CALIFORNIA DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES
CALIFORNIA STATE CLIMATOLOGIST
US ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS SOUTHERN DISTRICT
QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS...PLEASE REFER ALL QUESTIONS TO
W-SGX.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV.
&&
JAD
END
Steve Oregon wrote, “How about a pipeline distribution network connecting water plentiful regions to water shortage locations.
There wouldn’t be any worry about spillage. It’s only water.
The Great Lakes and even the lower Columbia River could be tapped for agriculture and people.”
http://www.greatlakes.org/Document.Doc?id=144
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riparian_water_rights
MattN says:
January 18, 2014 at 6:09 pm
We stole all their rain here in the east. Seriously, SW Virginia had more rain by July 15 last year than all of 2012.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Yes, wasn’t it lovely? (I am in central North Carolina)
But the east coast gets it’s droughts too. This is from Ohio University Research Communications about a West Virgina stalagmite. The connection is:
less solar radiation ===> the Atlantic Ocean cooled ===> icebergs increased ===> precipitation fell===> century-long droughts aka Bond Events.
Lew Skannen says: @ur momisugly January 18, 2014 at 6:31 pm
… Any idea why this is the case?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Feminism activists.
gymnosperm says: @ur momisugly January 18, 2014 at 9:39 pm
Both your links return pag not found. (It may be just me and my dinosaur computer)
´Nuff said:
http://newswatch.nationalgeographic.com/2013/06/21/fish-frogs-and-people-to-benefit-from-biggest-dam-removal-project-in-california-history/
Fish & frogs maybe. People not so much.
No rain in the weather model forecasts until the very end of January, when some moderate precip shows up in the northern California.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014011906/gfs-ens_apcpn24_namer.html
Gail Combs says:
January 19, 2014 at 4:56 am
Lew Skannen says: @ur momisugly January 18, 2014 at 6:31 pm
… Any idea why this is the case?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Feminism activists.
======================================================
Nahhhh… transgender accommodation, Gail. Nobody knows who is what anymore.
This if from 1973. Of course that was before 1979 so it doesn’t count. Enjoy.
The use of the MODIS images at the top is not an accurate comparison. The Jan 13, 2013 picture looks typical for a image taken 2 days after a large storm. Looking at the same region 4 or 5 days after the storm would show the snow covered area is greatly reduced as lower elevation snow melts. Nevertheless, the core snow covered area over the Sierra Nevada is likely much smaller this year versus last year. No doubt some MODIS images could be found that are more representative of the true picture, however they will not be a dramatic. But they would contain the true science value. It boils down to a question of terrain above what elevation is covered by snow. In an image like that above it might be hard to tell visually. The reason is MODIS images have about 500m resolution and the elevation in the Sierra Nevada can change quite a bit in a few pixels. http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/data_products/
Seems like shades of 76-77 winter, tho not as cold. Endless, mostly dry clippers here in the east in addition to the west-coast drought. Hope not, as 77 was bone-dry long into the year over most of the US.
crosspatch says:
January 18, 2014 at 4:45 pm
‘I was going to suggest that CA build more dams,”
Dam California.
But hey, they have billions to spend on a train no one will ride. So why worry about a drought in a desert state?
jdgalt says:
January 18, 2014 at 8:48 pm
I see no reason except politics why we don’t build a national (or even international) pipeline system, to allow places with a shortage of water to buy from places with a surplus just like the electrical grid. Of course, in practice this would mean the whole system of farm subsidies would need to be dismantled — to which I say, it’s about f___ing time!!!
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
The federal government already diverts water to California from as far as two states away.
Farmers in CA pay about $10 an acre-foot (the amount of water it would take to cover 1 acre to a depth of 1 foot) for that water and cry poverty any time someone suggest raising the price of that water.
The cost to the federal government of delivering that water to CA is around $100 an acre-foot.
Far from dismantling the system of farm subsides, your plan would simply become the biggest farm subsidy ever imagined.
Treaties with Canada would also cause a problem for such schemes. The largest source of fresh water in NA is the Great Lakes. However, that watershed is shared between the US and Canada. An agreement between the US and Canada covering use of Great Lakes water prohibits diverting Great Lakes water out of the Great Lakes drainage basin. The city of Milwaukee WI, which uses lake Michigan water, can’t even supply all of its outlying suburbs because parts of those suburbs cross into the Mississippi drainage basin.
With that little snow pack, that lake picture might have the boats laying on their side at the bottom soon? Pipeline, desalinization, emigration, water storage/management. Whatever. Just let California pay for it. Maybe they could tap those offshore reserves of oil and gas to fund the desalinization and management projects and remove myopic eco-activism as the overriding priority. No-flush is to California’s water problems as inflating our tires properly is to energy independence.
PS, What do you pipe when Great Lake levels are down like they are now (http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/data/now/wlevels/dbd/) and there would be restrictions on quenching the western half of the US? Sometimes we get so caught up in resource management that we think its abnormal to be at the mercy of nature – that droughts and floods aren’t supposed to happen unless we are doing something wrong. Natural extension of misperception: climate change is bad because … man.
I have been traveling the winters of the Rockies and west for more many decades, I have seen dry years and wet years. Nothing new here. The bottom line is the politicians love growth to increase tax revenue, but as usual no infrastructure growth until it is has become critical. Then the call for more taxes. You get what you elect.
The really worrisome thing is the snowpack deficit. It isn’t like precipitation will pick up after May, at least not normally. If the snows don’t come this winter, the region may be waiting for water until next November.
Hmmmm….Western drought? Summer of 2012, we had eight major rainstorms here in Phoenix, including one in August where my wife and daughter we stranded at a Walgreens for FOUR HOURS due to grey-out conditions. In the 22 years I’ve been here, we’ve never had more than two. Our ANNUAL rainfall is 8.2 inches, but that one in August was about four inches in itself. This past summer we had four.
Coach Springer,
“What do you pipe when Great Lake levels are down like they are now (http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/data/now/wlevels/dbd/) and there would be restrictions on quenching the western half of the US?”
1. You can’t use Great lakes water outside the Great Lakes drainage basin due to a treaty between the US and Canada.
2. Your link gives no real reason to be concerned about Great Lakes water levels. The worst of the lakes at your link is Michigan/Huron which is down by less than half a meter, around a foot and a half. The total surface area of the Great Lakes is 94,250 square miles. If all of the lakes were down as much as Michigan, the total loss of water would be around 26.8 cubic miles. The total volume of the Great Lakes is around 5,439 cubic miles so the Great lakes are down by less than half a percent from the long term average and current levels are well within long term variability.
@george e smith 7:32, while Anthony is good he can’t be everywhere.
The pictures are great, I was in Oroville in 2009 and was intrigued by “where’s the water”.
I suspect the governor is declaring any state of emergency he can dream up, California is broke and if US national politics play out, they have only 3 years to soak the federal taxpayers for all they can steal.
Its not a bailout, oh no its an emergency caused by global warming.
Stunning how politically useful CAGW is for covering up bureaucratic theft, lack of basic planning and the expedient dismissal of known trends.
JJ at 12:47 am
“what about this graph?”
What about it? What are you trying to say it shows?
1. that the Calif drought is caused by the 2013-14 15% Ice Extent being totally within the 2 std deviation envelope of the 1981-2010 average?
2. that the Calif drought is caused by the 2013-14 15% extent being greater than the 2012-13 ice extent up to mid december 2013?
3. that the Calif drought is caused by the 2013-14 15% extent being 1 to 6 days behind 2012-13 for the past four weeks?
What about it?
4. that my statement: “2013 had more ice at all dates than did 2012.” isn’t technically true in the last half of December? It is true according to the IARC-JAXA
@John robertson at 9:58 am
I suspect the governor is declaring any state of emergency he can dream up,
“State of emergencies” are a portent to abuse of power. That said, the current state of the reservoirs PLUS the state of the snow pack, means that California cannot proceed “business as usual.” The cost of water needs to rise (as any scarce resource shoud) and the cost of regulation should drop (as any resource in surplus should) but will not.
Stunning how politically useful CAGW is for covering up bureaucratic theft, lack of basic planning and the expedient dismissal of known trends.
So true!
The WUWT discussion in the post the Flooding In the Sumerset Levels… exemplifies this point.
Other JJ –
We are asked by Anthony and the site moderators to post under a single, unique handle. I have been posting on this site under the handle JJ for several years. Please choose a different handle for yourself.
This is the third time I have asked.
JJ
California the outhouse state?
It would be nice if the government was doing its job of providing the basics..
Why not use sea water in a natural gas power stations.. This way you can capture the fresh water byproduct and provide clean energy at the same time..
@ur momisugly MattS , I believe there is a similar treaty re: BC Canada “The Columbia River Treaty 1951, I think that most if not all the water stays within the Colombia River basin, for both irrigation and Hydro power and spring flood control all along all the rivers in the basin. We have had an average year in BC btw, although snow fall below 2000′ here in the Southern Interior has been very low. I know I got a 4 wd for the first time ever, have used it once!!!!. Last year I had to chain up the car every time coming home (bad driveway in a rural area) from late Nov. to end off Feb. so maybe everybody in California should throw away all their umbrellas, raincoats and rubber boots!
@MattS I have to add we left a snow shovel down at the gate (bottom) of drive as well, VooDoo if you ask me!