Records for the “polar vortex” outbreak show a big disparity between warm and cold records. There were 655 cold records in the past week compared to 101 warm records, a ratio of 6.5 to 1. Cold temperature records have been set from the Canadian border down to the Gulf coast of Louisiana.
See the map:
Here is the breakdown:
| Record Events Summary for The Past Week | |
|---|---|
| Total Records: | 1476 |
| Rainfall: | 190 |
| Snowfall: | 530 |
| High Temp: | 83 |
| Low Temp: | 346 |
| Low Max Temp: | 309 |
| High Min Temp: | 18 |
Source: http://wx.hamweather.com/maps/climate/records/1week/us.html
Low Max: 309 + Low Temp: 346 = 655
High Min 18 + High Temp 83 =101
655/101= 6.48
While this isn’t anything except proof of a cold weather event, remember this come summertime when warmists tout a similar, but opposite disparity of records during a heat wave as “proof” of something else.
(Note: This post was updated to correct a swap of warm/cold terms in the first paragraph, and the math for the ratio was added about 1 hour after this post was originally published. -Anthony)
Is this a typo?
“Records for the “polar vortex” outbreak show a big disparity between warm and cold records. There were 655 warm records in the past week compared to 101 cold records, a ratio of 6.5 to 1”
REPLY: Yep, fixed, thanks – Anthony
You say above ” there were 655 warm records in the past week compared to 101 cold records, a ratio of 6.5 to 1.” Did you mean 655 cold vs 155 warm?
I believe that you reversed the figures for warm and cold.
Like wot Rob and Zek 202 said.
I believe the numbers are supposed to be reversed here:
“There were 655 warm records in the past week compared to 101 cold records”
The fact that we continue to set records at both ends of the spectrum in my opinion only means we have not collected enough data yet. New Stations (recent) also mean new records. And as shown by the recent release of satellite data the overall average has not moved (outside of margin of error) in 34 years.
Reversed figures? Wow, For a moment there I thought Anthony had had a Damascene conversion!
Kevin Lohse says:
January 8, 2014 at 9:38 am
Like wot Rob and Zek 202 said.
LOL
look at the DOTS … its reversed
I always thought the Golf coast was in California?
REPLY: Yes this was a voice dictation recognition error, fixed, thanks. I published this and then got caught up in work at my office, so wasn’t able to correct it right away. -Anthony
Lee,
Nah, the Golf Coast is in Fife, at St Andrews.
Oldseadog says:
January 8, 2014 at 10:00 am
Lee,
Nah, the Golf Coast is in Fife, at St Andrews.
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Nah, It is here in Sunny North Carolina in the Sand Hills. link Sunny, mild weather year round. I am sure there are people playing right now .
“While this isn’t anything except proof of a cold weather event, remember this come summertime when warmists tout a similar, but opposite disparity of records during a heat wave as “proof” of something else.”
Who needs to wait until summer? They are saying the cold weather is proof of global warming:
http://science.time.com/2014/01/06/climate-change-driving-cold-weather/
Gail, I am sure there were folk playing at The Royal and Ancient at St Andrews today in the cold wind and showers.
They are bred tough here, sun is not necessary to play golf here.
(Actually, everyone here is just jealous of the weather over there.)
All that really matters to me right now is that it’s still cold out there (13°F or -10.5°C) and in a couple hours I’ll get started on shoveling us out of about a foot and a half of snow.
Just think of all the money I’m saving on a silly gym membership.
I see others have latched onto the typo. But it is funny.
Is it much, much worst that we thought?
I don’t think the stats game is one skeptics should play. While the figures this time look ok in the last week, long term this is a one horse race. Overall heat records easily outnumber cold ones. And after all it’s the long term data that has value, short term is nothing more than for interests sake.
Bruce says: January 8, 2014 at 10:41 am
I don’t think the stats game is one skeptics should play.
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On the contrary, we should highlight it every time to counterbalance the propaganda.
This is how the scientists got stuck in the Antarctic, because they believed the propaganda about Antarctica having less sea-ice, and did not read the small-print that said this was only from the Antarctic peninsular.
This is why Heathrow was closed for three days last year, because they believed the propaganda that there would be no more snow and did not invest in snow clearing equipment for 30 years.
We need to counter the propaganda at every level, to prevent our leaders and administrators from being duped by the biggest scam in history.
Ralph
Another one coming in about 10 days time and February is looking like it might be a cold month, too.
Silver Ralph says:
January 8, 2014 at 10:51 am
“We need to counter the propaganda at every level, to prevent our leaders and administrators from being duped by the biggest scam in history.”
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Hells bells- biggest part of ’em are in on it!
@crosspatch: Where are you seeing the long range forecasts?
Jeff Masters at the Weather Underground is of course pushing the “nothing to see here” agenda:
Not a Historic Cold Wave
As notable as this week’s cold wave was–bringing the coldest air seen since 1996 or 1994 over much of the nation–the event failed to set any monthly or all-time record low minimum temperature records at airports and cooperative observing stations monitored by NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center.
Silver Ralph says:
January 8, 2014 at 10:51 am
Bruce says: January 8, 2014 at 10:41 am
I don’t think the stats game is one skeptics should play.
This is why Heathrow was closed for three days last year, because they believed the propaganda that there would be no more snow and did not invest in snow clearing equipment for 30 years.
We need to counter the propaganda at every level, to prevent our leaders and administrators from being duped by the biggest scam in history.
Ralph
In the Netherlands the same game. The NS and Prorail stop t cold prevention because there would be now cold and snow any more. So trains where no longer build for colder conditions and tracks ware no longer adapted for cold. Then the switch heating went of because there wouldn’t be any winter. And o boy they were wrong. Now we have several winters of cold weather and all they cane do is reduce the train scheduled.
The same happened on the roads, like 25 November 2005. 6:00 in the morning it was already snowing and at 7 there was 5 cm snow. At 11 a civil servant lookt out of the window and so the snow. He call t meteoconsult and ask about the snow. Meteo answer was and I am not joking “no her it is raining so never mind” There was falling so much snow that highways got blocked and several people got stranded. I had to travel 20 KM and did 4 hours about the distance.
I would really like to see a longer term tally, maybe over the 17 year peak/pause.
CBC has truly passed into CAGW agitprop:
Professor Michael E. Mann wades into the cold snap recycling Jennifer Francis’ BS… And CBC, Canada Bulls…Corporation is too happy to oblige:
http://www.cbc.ca/player/News/World/ID/2428739814/
Susan Bonner presents him as a co-Nobel Prize winner… and is obviously an ignoramus propagandist. Let’s appreciate the cover of Mikey’s book on the shelf behind him…
Did the people who experienced the warm temp records, who live in those locations think, ‘Oh, of course this is caused by Global Warming!’
The rainfall records are highly questionable…err false…at least for central Kansas. We have not had any rainfall in Wichita for quite some time, all of our precipitation has been snow.
Andres Valencia says:
January 8, 2014 at 10:33 am
When talking about CAGW, it all baloney. Then perhaps when we talk about their latest catastrophes we could say, “it’s much more würst than we thought”.
(Think of the homophone, at least in the USA, of baloney, bologna).
Rob aka Flatlander says:
January 8, 2014 at 9:42 am
The fact that we continue to set records at both ends of the spectrum in my opinion only means we have not collected enough data yet. New Stations (recent) also mean new records. And as shown by the recent release of satellite data the overall average has not moved (outside of margin of error) in 34 years.
I was thinking this exact thing. For example, we set a snowfall record in Wichita on January 1st with just under an inch of snow (considered extreme weather in the religion of CAGW?). This may imply that much of the weather record data is still full of reasonably average and uneventful weather.
Brewster says:
January 8, 2014 at 11:28 am
“–the event failed to set any monthly or all-time record low minimum temperature records at airports and cooperative observing stations monitored by NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center.”
Clearly you didn’t get the memo on why.
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So would I but it might be tough to find records that haven’t already been “adjusted”.
Many more warm records than cold ones is proof of global warming but many more cold records than warm ones is just weather. I’m starting to catch on.
Please help me understand how your article can scientifically sit alongside the following from Bloomberg as the link to “Artic Temperatures” in the original seems to be credible.
Bright white ice reflects energy back into space; dark blue water absorbs it. Arctic temperatures are about 2 degrees Celsius warmer there than they were in the mid-1960s. (The average temperature increase for the Earth’s atmosphere overall is about 0.7 degree C, since 1900.)
(The average temperature increase for the Earth’s atmosphere overall is about 0.7 degree C, since 1900.)
@Pox on your house….
So?
Why are the temps in the South Pole dropping?
Apoxonbothyourhouses says: @ January 8, 2014 at 2:26 pm
Please help me understand how your article can scientifically sit….
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You are in luck an engineer about a week ago explained this in a comment.
I am going to reproduce it because I think it is a critical bit of information.
You can also look at the implications of the Bipolar Seesaw in this paper: Can we predict the duration of an interglacial? and do not miss The Antithesis
Apoxonbothyourhouses says: “Bright white ice reflects energy back into space; dark blue water absorbs it. Arctic temperatures are about 2 degrees Celsius warmer there than they were in the mid-1960s.”
(1) For much of the year, Arctic temperatures remain well below freezing.
(2) Summertime decrease in Arctic ice happens in four ways:
(a) sublimation via low humidity
(b) removal to warmer waters by wind and currents
(c) melting from beneath by warmer water
(d) melting via sunlight on soot-contaminated surfaces
(3) The albedo of ice overlaps that of water at high zenith angles.
(4) Ice acts an insulator and reduces major T⁴ loss of heat from the ocean to space.
(5) Ocean albedo, a function of wind, temperature, humidity, current, surface tension, plankton content, and viscosity is poorly handled by the models.
(6) Old ice has a correspondingly low albedo, as in (d), above.
When studying the 5,500 old Ortzi (the Iceman) He had been buried in a glazier in the European Alps. But that year a volcanic eruption covered the mountains with brown ash, so the sun was not reflected as normal. (Not climate change!) This created a glacier melt and Ortzi was found, it didn’t last long of course as new snow covered the dusty film eventually, but it shows how the glaciers can be affected by volcanic eruptions miles away from ash fall.
This was a week chosen for reporting high ratio of cold records to warm records. I would like to look at record-setting occurrences of 1-10 years, and consider recent installment of official airport thermometers being disproportionately in hinterland areas.
I would not go for records – but for decade-plus averages for official thermometers that have been in existence since before WWII and where growth of urban effects has not been significant.
…Just wait…
The 10-day ECMWF has EXTREME amplitude. PNA++
Looks like something similar to the winter of 1976/77.
Gail Combs says: January 8, 2014 at 4:09 pm
Thanks for the repost of RACook’s and the two links, I missed the Antithesis three years ago.
Here is the animated 180 hr NH Jet stream forecast: http://www.stormsurfing.com/stormuser2/images/dods/glob_250.swf
Steve Keohane says…
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I like to keep reminding people there is an alternative view. With luck Dr. Svaalgard is correct and we stay just above the Solar TSI glacial inception point. There is plenty of evidence that says we are near that edge and no one knows exactly where the edges is. (Is it 416 Wm2 of Sirocko & Seelos or is it 474Wm−2 ofTzedakis et al.)
The one thing that is certain is that a global warming “tipping point” is completely laughable given the present near end interglacial TSI.