By Paul Homewood
The December floods in England have been a big story recently, and, of course, still remain a problem. The term “extreme weather” has been bandied about, along with the inevitable connotation of “climate change”. ( I may be wrong, but years ago we rarely seemed to hear this term – it was usually just called “bad weather”, or simply referred to as “wet”, “stormy”, “cold” etc).
Nobody, of course, actually quantifies any of this, but the inference is made nevertheless. A good example came in the Telegraph, in an otherwise sensible article by William Langley:
Earlier this year, the Government agreed a deal with insurers that would nominally protect 500,000 households in areas deemed to be at such high risk their owners are unable to get cover. The £180 million raised each year — which would be managed by a not-for-profit fund known as Flood Re — ensures properties remain insurable through a £10.50-a-year levy on all residential premiums due to be introduced in 2015.
But critics say the scheme allows for no increase in the likely numbers of flood victims as weather patterns become increasingly severe and new homes are built in areas previously considered off limits because of flood risk.
So what exactly are the facts? How unusual has the recent rainfall been, and is there a trend to heavier rainfall? 
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/anomacts
Scotland has certainly been very wet in December, but I want to concentrate on England, as this is where most of the media attention, and, it seems, damage has been.
First we’ll look at England as a whole, then concentrate on the South East, where the real problems have been.
England
Figure 1
Figure 1 shows December precipitation, using the Met Office data. For the country as a whole, last month was only the 20th wettest since 1910, certainly nothing out of the ordinary. The wettest month was in 1914, when 179mm fell, compared with 116mm this time. Bear in mind as well, that this is just one month of the year – there will be plenty of Januaries, Februaries and so on that were wetter.
Neither does there appear to be any evidence of wetter months becoming more common.
The flooding problems have been very much the result of a build up of water, rather than flash floods, with saturated ground and full rivers. So was December the culmination of months of wet weather. We can check this by going back to October. (November and September were both dry months, so we are taking the worst case scenario here).
Figure 2
For the three months as a whole, 2013 ranks as still only 14th wettest, again nothing remarkable, and 29% lower than the record total set in 1929.
Again, it must be borne in mind that there all sorts of other permutations of months, for instance November to January, that will give totals higher than this particular period.
South East
Now let’s focus on the South East. The Met Office keep regional data for “England South East & Central South”, which closely fits the area of heavy rainfall, on the map above.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/datasets
Figures 3 and 4 show the precipitation for this region.
Figure 3
Figure 4
For December, 2013 ranks as 7th wettest on record, although it is notable that all the other wetter years were prior to 1959. For the three months total, the rank is 6th.
So, there is no indication, even in this part of the country, that rainfall last month, or since October, has been anything not experienced regularly in the past.
Winter Precipitation Trends
Is there any trend towards higher winter rainfall in England. To check this we have the benefit of the long term England & Wales Precipitation Series, held by the Met Office, which dates back to 1766.
There is clear evidence that winter precipitation was consistently lower in the first part of the record, up to about 1860. But since then, and certainly over the last century, the long term trend is pretty flat, with, if anything, a trend to less rain over the last decade or so.
Figure 5
The Met Office figures for England only, (a different dataset to the one above), show a similar picture.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/actualmonthly
Figure 6
Final Thoughts
The wet weather has continued into January so far, and hopefully will abate soon. We will get a better picture when we can look at the full winter period.
Nevertheless, there is nothing in the data to provide the slightest bit of evidence that the floods have been the result of, or aggravated by, “climate change”. Nor is there any indication that such events are becoming more common, or more extreme.
Only today, Bishop Hill refers to two separate comments by Sirs John Beddington and David King, respectively current and former UK Govt Chief Scientists, both of which imply that recent events are examples of extreme weather, which is increasing because of “climate change”. Naturally, they offer not the slightest bit of evidence. This did not prevent the BBC and Guardian respectively from falling for it hook, line and sinker.
I will leave the last word to Mary Dhonau, of the Flood Protection Association, an industry body. In a another Telegraph article, she warns us that “flooding is being made worse by developers building on flood plains to cater for an expanding population. She says that more than 2,000 properties were approved on flood plains this year despite official objections, and added: “It is absolutely barking mad to build on a flood plain when there are so many other places that could be built on.”
Precisely!
References
1) Met Office regional data
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/datasets
2) England & Wales Precipitation series
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadukp/
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Paul, that was both a good read and good science. Clear, comprehensive, understandable, and fully cited and source. Well done, that man!
w.
There was a man from Derbyshire (possibly a farmer) who contacted the BBC on Sunday morning after Sir David King had been on the BBC saying that the floods were the result of climate change and the government must spend hundreds of millions of pounds more on flood defences. This man said that the real reason for the floods was that the government agency tasked with dredging ditches, dykes and rivers ignored its responsibility so that the water couldn’t flow away. I thought he sounded much more sensible than King.
By the way I was also listening on Friday night when the BBC was interviewing the victims of the floods. I think that they were a little deflated by the responses. One man from Northern Ireland, for example, who was being pressed to say how terrible it was merely replied, “There’s plenty of people in the world worse off.” Good for him.
The UK is a small country by area with a middling population. The natural environment has been heavily modified of the last 2000 years. Rivers such as the Severn and the Wye used to be navigable much further inland when the Romans were here. They have silted up as a result of soil erosion caused by agriculture. This leads to flooding. The country is 95% deforested, unlike say France and Germany. There are very few trees to hold back heavy rain. As always in the UK, the built environment is poorly maintained, especially in terms of the culverts and drains that are meant to remove flood water. The Environment Agency seems to have lost its focus and in some areas of the country it is telling landowners that their land will be allowed to flood rather than maintain and improve the flood defences. We should not be surprised at the current events.
It’s Obama-sane simple. Just require insurers to cover preexisting conditions.
Paul Homewood, thank for replying so courteously. I did not man to disparage the suffering in the SE of England it’s just that a lot of the press (and your photo) was of the SW and your did not give the details for round here.
Also we are suffering the worst flooding since 2007. OK, that’s not long in Geological time but it is almost a decade.
Bill Parsons, Thank you. You are too kind to me. What I wrote about Tewkesbury is just common knowledge around north Gloucestershire.
And special thanks for linking to the extra photos of Tewkesbury flooding. It even names the building I referred to; the Abbey Mill. It is always in the river – even when the river isn’t in the road.
Central England 25 year Average Maximum Temperature
1888 to 1912 13.9 °C
1913 to 1937 13.9 °C
1938 to 1962 13.9 °C
1963 to 1987 14.0 °C
1988 to 2013 13.9 °C
“There are supposedly limits on how stupid people can be. Now I’m beginning to doubt that.”
One must keep in mind that 50% of the population has an IQ LESS than 100. (there are also 50% with an [IQ] greater) The AGW scam relies on those with an IQ below 100. Now add in those indoctrinated and brain washed and it is easy to reach a majority. Marketing 101
If there are any civil engineers or hydrologists at the top of the Environment Agency in the UK , it isn’t apparent from the biogs on the web site.
Lol….the earth is so old yet you judge its health by the last 17 years! We are at the begining of global mass extinction, with thousands of species dissapearing on a regular basis….why?…..sea level is rising….why?…melting glaciers….co2 levels…the list goes on! This year alone the world has had some of the worst extreme weather we have ever seen….hello….do you people live in a bubble….or just really gullible!
I live more or less in the middle of England , our river is only slightly high , nothing at all unusual ,the flooding is whats happening elswhere , when we had the storms we had a couple of wooden benches tipped over , the Midlands does not do excitement !! Oh and we have had so far this winter one slight frost and no snow or even sleet , my flat has been averaging 75f all winter and i have still got the main radiator switched off !!
Two years ago the winter drought that was going to lead to terrible water shortages was also blamed on ‘global warming’.
“A bizarre European Union directive that farmers have to plough their fields with the slope of the hill, rather than across it.”
I suppose that would certainly accelerate runoff, not that that would be desirable necessarily; it would also greatly increase soil erosion – definitely not desirable. It’s why soil conservaton districts here in Virginia spend a lot of effort to encourage contour ploughing.
In bid to understand what is actually going on with the UK weather I’ve recently taken to charting and exploring the Met Office historical data using a web based data visualization tool called Tableau. It does a far better job than Excel and lets one share the Web link with others so they can explore and query the data for themselves – so much better than static charts. I started off looking at my local station (Leuchars http://bit.ly/1aFwMcH ) but given the fixation in the media with the rain down South I thought readers here might appreciate a data visualization of Heathrow http://bit.ly/1cX28zJ
The station data does not yet include the very wet December 2013 but given the excellent and informative post by Paul I doubt it will be anything exceptional.
“It is absolutely barking mad to build on a flood plain when there are so many other places that could be built on.”
You grab what land you can, build the houses, grab the cash. Anything else is somebody else’s problem.
@ur momisugly z gardner
“the earth is so old yet you judge its health by the last 17 years!”
The Global Warmers judge it by the 15 years between 1980 and 1995.
“We are at the begining of global mass extinction”
How do you know?
“sea level is rising”
Slightly, slowly, as it has been doing for 100 years or more.
“melting glaciers”
Been melting since 1850. Others are growing.
“co2 levels”
No evidence to suggest it is anything other than good for plants and harmless for us.
“This year alone the world has had some of the worst extreme weather we have ever seen”
Unless you are extremely young, there has been weather just as extreme in your lifetime.
“do you people live in a bubble….or just really gullible!”
Same question to you.
Yes, It is made worse & more frequent by climate change. Climate change is driven by increasing atmospheric co2 concentration.
Keep denying and finding reasons for denying but climate change is happening through human’s actions on the planet.
All you denyiers, rip in a get a cheap seaside property while us worriers move to higher ground.
@ur momisugly Ro — Ha! — Excellent rebuttal of z at 5:45pm today (actually, your reply gave him or her more credit for rational thought than his or her nearly nonsensical post demonstrated).
************************************************************
@ur momisugly Bern 235 — CO2 UP. WARMING STOPPED (17 YEARS AGO).
Cite even ONE piece of evidence for your assertion. No, the computer simulations run on the IPCC’s “models,” are not data, i.e., evidence. Look high. Look low. You will find NO EVIDENCE that CO2 can do ANY-thing to drive Earth’s climate. Only speculation and conjecture.
Why are you worried?
The weather is what it has been. The sea levels are what they have been (check any sea navigation chart going back to the 1700’s).
Why in the world are you worried?
You are choosing to simply take at face value someone’s unsupported testimony. Why?
Next time, instead if simply believing them like a small child would, say back to them what an adult would, “Prove it.”
…………. or are you just having a hard time trying to sell that house on the bluff you built on spec last year?
Bern235
We denyiers always use spel cheker befor we poste.
It is important to note in Germany they were dredging their rivers less for environmental reasons which of course they got flooding that killed a lot of people. I do not know about England and how the dredge their rivers.
The way Germany dredged their rivers was hard to find many years ago. There was no major news report about it.
“First we’ll look at England as a whole, then concentrate on the South East, where the real problems have been.”
… oh yes? I live in Scotland where it has also been raining a lot. Indeed, because we always get more rain, a 100% increase on normal is a LOT MORE RAIN, than in London where there’s more urine than rain.
The EA no longer dredge rivers, which they told my a couple of years ago, because of cost. They do undertake ”scouring” to clear debris. Unfortunately scouring only moves a problem downstream, dredging removes the problem totally.
The EA claim that dredgings in town and city areas has to be treated as waste under EU regulations. This means removed, dried and screened for unwanted debris like supermarket trollies, and disposed of in a licenced landfill site. Dredgings in farming areas can be landed onto the banks without the waste regulations applying because it does not have to be removed. This all piles costs onto an already costly system so dredging is not carried out in areas that desperately need it like river stretches through towns and cities.
The whole reason for flooding to happen is water backup due to an obstruction like weed, silt etc., so if water can be persuaded to move quickly through and out of an vulnerable area flooding will be less likely. Flooded farmland is less of a problem and can be beneficial in that it moves fertile silt onto fields.
john
Rather than cost it may be an environmental concern in that dredging might disturb wildlife. if you have a river that might have water voles there is more chance of the flood plain being paved with gold than expecting the EA to dredge it.
tonyb
Col Mosby says:
January 7, 2014 at 6:43 am
“Anytime I hear climate change as an explanation of anything, I feel compelled to point out the logical absurdity of it all….”
Yes, the argument based on the lack of global warming over the last 17 years is clearly right. Something can’t be caused by something else that doesn’t exist.
For the doom mongers the lack of warming is just too inconvenient, in fact it’s a complete catastrophe. Their response is very simple: they tell outrageous lies.
Many still refer to ongoing global warming, and some claim that global warming is actually accelerating (including, sadly, the President of the United States). The Telegraph recently reported a statement from “scientists” that the English climate is warming faster than the global average – of course, the English climate, as shown by the CET, has been rapidly and consistently getting colder since 2000.
There’s an old saying that a lie will go around the world before the truth has got its boots on. But I think the truth usually wins in the long run. The sad thing is that I may not live to see it.
Chris
climatereason,
In Lincolnshire, where Drainage Boards operate, the Vole seems not to bother when weed etc is removed. They still exist happily living in the river banks. Wild Mink are the problem with predating water voles and they are on the increase since hunting with hounds was criminalised. As a historic note, the vole thrived when rivers were dredged but there were no released mink around then and for that we have to thank the so called animal liberationalists and their twisted thinking.
Coastal flooding during the past week was not a storm problem alone but a combination of a high spring tide, caused by the conjunction of sun and moon both of which are closer to earth for this series of springs, in combination with the storms. The storms in themselves were not of ”record” strength.
The BBC, in their eagerness to report ”records broken” do not explain the reality. How long before the claim of climate change rises I dread to think but I am sure it will emerge.