Monckton: Of meteorology and morality

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley

To those of us who have dared to question on scientific and economic grounds the official story on global warming, it is a continuing surprise that there is so little concern about whether or not that story is objectively true among the many who have swallowed it hook, Party Line and sinker.

For the true-believers, the Party Line is socially convenient, politically expedient, and financially profitable. Above all, it is the Party Line. For those who think as herds or hives, it is safe. It is a grimy security blanket. It is the dismal safety in numbers that is the hallmark of the unreasoning mob.

But is it true? The herd and the hive do not care. Or, rather, they do care. They care very much if anyone dares to ask the question “But is it true?” They are offended, shocked, outraged. They vent their venom and their spleen and their fury on those of us who ask, however politely, “But is it true?”

Their reaction is scarcely distinguishable from the behavior of the adherents of some primitive superstitious cult on learning that someone has questioned some egregiously, self-evidently barmy aspect of the dogma that the high priests have handed down.

They have gotten religion, but they call it science. They have gotten religion, but they do not know they have gotten religion. They have gotten religion, but they have not gotten the point of religion, which, like the point of science, is objective truth.

The question arises: can science function properly or at all in the absence of true religion and of its insistence upon morality? For science, in searching for the truth, is pursuing what is – or very much ought to be – a profoundly moral quest.

Yet what if a handful of bad scientists wilfully tamper with data, fabricate results, and demand assent to assertions for which there is no real scientific justification? And what if the vast majority of their colleagues cravenly look the other way and do nothing about their bent colleagues? What you get is the global warming scare.

As every theologian knows, the simplest and usually the clearest of all tests for the presence of a moral sense is whether or not the truth is being told. The true-believers in the New Superstition are not telling the truth. On any objective test, they are lying, and are profiteering by lying, and are doing so at your expense and mine, and are bidding fair to bring down the Age of Enlightenment and Reason, flinging us back into the dumb, inspissate cheerlessness of a new Dark Age.

Nothing is done about the many lies, of course, because the many lies are the Party Line, and no one ever went to jail who safely parroted the Party Line.

“The Science Is Settled! There’s A Consensus! A 97.1% Consensus! Doubters Are As Bad As Holocaust Deniers! Global Temperature Is Rising Dangerously! It Is Warmer Now Than For 1400 Years! Well, 400 Years, Anyway! Tree-Rings Reliably Tell Us So! The Rate Of Global Warming Is Getting Ever Faster! Global Warming Caused Superstorm Sandy! And Typhoon Haiyan! And 1000 Other Disasters! Arctic Sea Ice Will All Be Gone By 2013! OK, By 2015! Or Maybe 2030! Santa Claus Will Have Nowhere To Live! Cuddly Polar Bears Are Facing Extinction! Starving Polar Bears Will Start Eating Penguins! Himalayan Glaciers Will All Melt By 2035! Er, Make That 2350! Millions Of Species Will Become Extinct! Well, Dozens, Anyway! Sea Level Is Rising Dangerously! It Will Rise 3 Feet! No, 20 Feet! No, 246 Feet! There Will Be 50 Million Climate Refugees From Rising Seas By 2010! OK, Make That 2020! The Oceans Will Acidify! Corals Will Die! Global Warming Kills! There Is A One In Ten Chance Global Warming Will End The World By 2100! We Know What We’re Talking About! We Know Best! We Are The Experts! You Can Trust Us! Our Computer Models Are Correct! The Science Is Settled! There’s A Consensus!”

And so, round and round, ad nauseam, ad ignorantiam, ad infinitum.

Every one of those exclamatory, declamatory statements about the climate is in substance untrue. Most were first uttered by scientists working for once-respected universities and government bodies. For instance, the notion that there is a 1 in 10 chance the world will end by 2100 is the fundamentally fatuous assumption in Lord Stern’s 2006 report on climate economics, written by a team at the U.K. Treasury for the then Socialist Government, which got the answer it wanted but did not get the truth, for it did not want the truth.

Previously, you could count on getting nothing but the truth from the men in white coats with leaky Biros in the front pocket. Now, particularly if the subject is global warming, you can count on getting little but profitable nonsense from your friendly local university science lab. They make the profits: you get the nonsense.

The central reason why what Professor Niklas Mörner has called “the greatest lie ever told” is damaging to civilization arises not from the staggering cost, soon to be $1 billion a day worldwide. Not from the direct threat to the West posed by the avowedly anti-democratic, anti-libertarian policies of the UN, the IPCC, and the costly alphabet-soup of unelected busybody agencies of predatory government that live off the taxpayer’s involuntary generosity. Not from the dire environmental damage caused by windmills and other equally medieval measures intended to make non-existent global warming go away.

The damage caused by the Great Lie arises from the fact that just about the entire global governing class has found it expedient or convenient or profitable to adopt the Great Lie, to peddle it, to parade it, to parrot it, to pass it on, regardless of whether anything that it says on the subject of the climate has any truth in it whatsoever.

The fundamental principle upon which Aristotle built the art and science of Logic is that every individual truth is consistent with every other individual truth. The truth is a seamless robe. Religion – or at any rate the Catholic presentation to which I inadequately subscribe (practising but not perfect) – is also built upon that fundamental principle of the oneness of all truth.

Science, too – or at any rate the classical scientific method adumbrated by Thales of Miletus and Al-Haytham and brought to fruition by Newton, Huxley, Einstein, and Popper – was also rooted in the understanding that there is only one truth, only one physical law, and that, therefore, every truth unearthed by the diligence of the curious and hard-working empiricist or theoretician must, if it be truly true, be consistent at every point and in every particular with every truth that had ever been discovered before, and with every truth yet to be discovered.

It is in the understanding of that central principle of the remarkable oneness and self-consistency of all truth that men of true religion and of true science ought to have become united. For there is an awesome beauty in the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth. As Keats put it, “Beauty is truth, truth beauty – that is all.”

The beauty of the truth is sullied, the seamless robe rent in sunder, if not merely a few individual scientists but the entire classe politique not merely of a single nation but of the planet advantages itself, enriches the already rich and impoverishes the already poor by lying and lying and lying again in the name of Saving The Planet by offering costly and environmentally destructive non-solutions to what is proving to be a non-problem.

The very fabric of the Universe is distorted by so monstrous and so sullenly persistent a lie. Those scientists who have been caught out trampling the truth, and those universities in which it has become near-universally agreed that the best thing to keep the cash flowing is to say nothing about the Great Lie, are by their actions or inactions repudiating the very justification and raison-d’être of science: to seek the truth, to find it, to expound it, to expand it, and so to bring us all closer to answering the greatest of all questions: how came we and all around us to be here?

We who are not only men of science but also men of religion believe that the Answer to that question lay 2000 years ago in a manger in Bethlehem. The very human face of the very Divine was “perfectly God and perfectly Man”, as the Council of Chalcedon beautifully put it.

We cannot prove that a Nazarene made the Universe, or that any Divine agency takes the slightest interest in whether we tell the truth. But, for as long as there is no evidence to the contrary, we are free to believe it. And it is in our freedom to believe that which has not been proven false that the value of true religion to true science may yet come to be discerned. For our religion teaches us that truthfulness is right and wilful falsehood wrong. We cannot prove that that is so, but we believe it nonetheless.

Science, though, is not a matter of belief (unless you belong to Greenpeace or some other Marxist front organization masquerading as an environmental group). It is a matter of disciplined observation, careful theoretical deduction, and cautious expression of results. The true scientist does not say, “I believe”: but he ought, if there is any curiosity and awe in his soul, to say “I wonder …”. Those two words are the foundation of all genuine scientific enquiry.

Yet the global warming scare has shown how very dangerous is science without morality. The scientist, who takes no one’s word for anything (nullius in verba), does not accept a priori that there is any objectively valuable moral code. He does not necessarily consider himself under any moral obligation either to seek the truth or, once he has found it, to speak it.

Science, therefore, in too carelessly or callously rejecting any value in religion and in the great code of morality in which men of religion believe and which at least they try however stumblingly to follow, contains within itself the seeds of its own destruction.

Yea, truth faileth (Isaiah, 59:15). The Great Lie persists precisely because too many of the scientists who utter it no longer live in accordance with the moral yardstick that Christianity once provided, or any moral yardstick, so that they do not consider they have any moral obligation to tell the truth.

That being so, we should no longer consider ourselves as laboring under any obligation, moral or other, to pay any particular heed to scientists seeking to meddle in politics unless and until they have shown themselves once more willing to be what al-Haytham said they should be: seekers after truth.

Two hundred and forty-six feet of sea-level rise, Dr. Hansen? Oh, come off it!

A merry Christmas an’ a roarin’ Hogmanay to one and all.

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December 26, 2013 8:23 am

Warren says
…..in other words nighttime lows increasing….
henry says
it is the opposite….
you should actually check those tables in AR4 2007. They are showing minima going down, globally, rather than up, together with some flimsy excuse about it….if you look it up in the text.
I remember that that was made me wonder, in the first place, about the correctness of AR4 2007
Study my tables here
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2013/02/21/henrys-pool-tables-on-global-warmingcooling/
and notice with me that I was easily able to make a 88 year curve from it, if you set the speed of warming over different periods out against time.
(Particularly looking at the drop in maximum temperatures)

Warren
December 26, 2013 8:28 am

RonRichey: another resort to name calling. There is a lot of data presented on the website. And arguments about the data made with completely erroneous understanding of the physics, followed by a rejection of the physics explanations using the claims ‘you didn’t give me more data’The best recent example is the discussion about temperatures on Venus. The facts are everywhere about the Venus probes confirming the temperatures. And the physical explanations thereof. And the comments pour in: ‘Nonsense.’ ‘You’re a troll’. ‘Youre the AGW equivalent of a religious zealot’ or similar. It’s no wonder that we see no peer reviewed papers used as evidence on this site, because many of the commenters say the peer review process is corrupt. I don’t think Science Education will make much progress here with attitudes like these.
Good luck with your antiAGW studies. Maybe one day they will lead to a Scientific paper that survives peer review.

Box of Rocks
December 26, 2013 8:29 am

acementhead says December 24, 2013 at 8:07 pm
Ah the Catholic Church. The wonderful, truth-seeking Catholic Church. Would that be the same Catholic Church that burnt Giordano Bruno to death just over four hundred years ago?
Yeah is also the same catholic church that brought you the enlightenment,,,,
Clearly you have chosen to open your mouth and show your bigotry and stupidity.
The left’s narrative on the catholic church is just plain bigoted and wrong.

December 26, 2013 8:38 am

Venus – red herring. What happens on a planet with a 100 bar atmosphere and 980,000 ppm CO2 as the dominant ghg tells us precisely zero about a 1 bar atmosphere with 400 ppm CO and the dominant ghg water vapour. One could as well study nuclear bombs to better understand how wooden matches work.
Warren – I made the same suggestion to you several time that Ron Richey just made to you again at 7:54 AM. There’s a new paper out regarding solar effects on cloud cover (and hence albedo) being larger than previously thought in the most recent WUWT thread. I suggest you take Ron’s advice. Read the paper, then read the comments, and pay attention to the credentials of many of the people involved.

pochas
December 26, 2013 8:44 am

Whatever you believe about God, I recommend Judeo/Christianity to be your default behavior. Anything else puts you on the wrong side of history. Jesus was, after all, an extreme liberal in his time, and we conservatives need to keep ourselves centered. I just had an extended discussion with my hippie daughter. That helps, too.

December 26, 2013 8:48 am

Warren;
It’s no wonder that we see no peer reviewed papers used as evidence on this site
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
There are several peer reviewed papers discussed and analyzed in depth on this site every single week. This can be verified simply by reading through the titles of the posts over as long a time frame as you wish to choose as a sample size.

ferdberple
December 26, 2013 8:57 am

HenryP says:
December 26, 2013 at 8:05 am
do you believe in God: a plan
++++++++++
I believe the “universe” to be infinite. the universe itself is god, otherwise the universe could not be infinite. Either god and the universe are both finite, or they are one and the same. That is the meaning of infinity. It includes everything. We are part of god.
The “universe” (god) itself is much older than 14 billion years. It is infinitely old. the big bang is simply a local event. the birth of a child universe from a parent universe. each universe gives rise to child universes at an exponential rate, through the process of black hole formation. over time this has led to and infinite number of child universes in which all possible outcomes are being played out.
It is this infinite number of child universes that gives rise to quantum mechanics, which is a necessary requirement for free will to exist. It is also what makes the “unfairness” of our universe “fair” in the infinity of time.

ferdberple
December 26, 2013 9:02 am

previous post: more correctly, a “near infinite” number of child universes. each child universe is itself finite, bounded by the total amount of matter and energy and quantum states. For all practical purposes “near infinite” is assumed to be infinite, but it is not.

Gail Combs
December 26, 2013 9:05 am

bobl says: December 25, 2013 at 4:36 pm ….
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Well said.
Maybe I am old, but in the last 20 years or so I have seen a major degradation in moral code manifesting as thousands of dollars of theft by well over a dozen so called friends. Worse the theft is actively aided by the so called law enforcement and court system.

Gail Combs
December 26, 2013 9:16 am

Jimbo says: December 25, 2013 at 4:56 pm
I’m dreaming of a white Christmas……..
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
I am wishing the Warmists a Snowy Cold New Year and it looks like I am getting my Christmas wish. Harsh Cold to End 2013 From Midwest to Northeast here in the USA and around the world.
To top it off, Rare heavy snowfall in Vietnam comes just days after U.S. Sec. of State John Kerry visited Vietnam to promote the new enemy: climate change
Do you think Kerry will be plagued by The Gore Effect during the rest of his career as U.S. Sec. of State?
Oh, what a wonderful gift that would be!

ferdberple
December 26, 2013 9:17 am

Warren says:
December 26, 2013 at 8:28 am
Maybe one day they will lead to a Scientific paper that survives peer review.
===========
Peer reviews does not mean a paper is correct. It means that the paper adheres to the general principles of the scientific method. The findings of the paper could be complete garbage or they could represent a major breakthrough. Only time will tell.
What we do know is that there is a crisis in scientific publishing largely driven by the need for funding. Most scientific investigations deliver negative results. Yet most scientific publications report positive results. Which means publication is not representative of science. It is biased toward positive findings. Like newspapers, no one wants to pay to ready a paper that says “nothing happened”, so no one takes the time or expense to publish.
The problem with this is due to probabilities. 20 scientists conduct the same study. 19 of them find negative results. This never gets published. 1 scientist conducts the same study and gets a positive result. At the 95% confidence level this is exactly what we would expect to happen. By chance 1 in 20 will find a positive result.
However, only the 1 scientists with the positive result gets published. That scientists assumes that they were the only one that did the study, and under that assumption they can say with 95% confidence their result is correct. However, it is not correct, because their assumption that they are the only one that did the study is incorrect.
Therefore, what we are finding is large numbers of scientific papers cannot be reproduced. When someone else tries to conduct the study it turns out to be like cold fusion. 1 in 20 times it works, at the 95% confidence level.

Sun Spot
December 26, 2013 9:19 am

Scientific method does not deliver truth only DATA. Mathematics only delivers MATHEMATICAL FACTS. Statistics only delivers information and nothing more. Philosophy integrates all these to give us knowledge and combined knowledge with theology you sometimes even get wisdom or truth.

A C Osborn
December 26, 2013 9:22 am

I think Warren is retreating with the usual I am right and you are all wrong attitude, I have the Science and you only have the Blogs, just like Adam Berlingo, in fact it may well be Adam.
You wanted a link to 1000 peer reviewed papers, well here it is.
http://www.populartechnology.net/2009/10/peer-reviewed-papers-supporting.html
There are dozens more here
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.co.uk/
And if you really want to find out some Climate History and see what so called scientists are doing to the Temperature Data sets see here
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/
Just let me know if that is not enough I can point to lots more.

December 26, 2013 9:26 am

Bill Illis: “Last month, water vapour levels were 1.0% above the long-long-term average”
Is a cite for this convenient?

A C Osborn
December 26, 2013 9:27 am

ferdberple says: December 26, 2013 at 9:17 am
Don’t bother, there are none so blind as those who will not see.

ferdberple
December 26, 2013 9:29 am

Allan MacRae says:
December 25, 2013 at 5:17 pm
The common thread of wealthy nations soon became apparent and it was Rule of Law in all its forms. Rich nations allowed their people to build and retain most of the benefits derived from their honest efforts.
=================
so true. in our travels we found the same. years ago we were living in Acapulco and got to know some of the locals quite well. one day over cervezas we asked them why they worked only for today, why the didn’t invest for the future. the answer still haunts me.
everyone had the same answer. “if we were to save some money, the rich man on the hill would pay the police to come and take it from us. so we make only enough for today and worry about tomorrow tomorrow.”

Gail Combs
December 26, 2013 9:31 am

Roberto says: December 25, 2013 at 8:55 pm
…His observation was that after all the things he had seen, one thing in the world scared him the most. That is when intellectuals give naturally thuggish people cover for going ahead….
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
It is Divide and Conquer. Get the masses fighting over trivial issues.
This is what you saw happen with the Tea Party by diverting it into the abortion issue. The Tea Party and Occupy Wall Street both agreed that bankers and fractional reserve banking are a problem so the possibility of a common enemy had to be killed via accusations of racism and the old tired issue of abortion.
See my other comment on religion and it’s use in Divide and Conquer HERE>

December 26, 2013 9:35 am

andywest2012 says: December 26, 2013 at 6:33 am
P.S. The root home of morality is not religion, be it Christianity or any other. The root of morality is altruistic practices that evolved because it was advantageous to their hosts. In gene-culture co-evolution, religions are merely vehicles that carry these practices (along with much else), and are typically beneficial in a net sense (upsides are greater than downsides). However, in evolution all things are up for grabs and altrusitic mechanisms can be leveraged by parasitic cultures (net damaging not beneficial). Hence the same mechanisms support ‘Great Lies’ such as that expressed by CAGW culture.
Indeed in populations that couldn’t possibly have understood their world or their origins, Great Lies are needed even for net beneficial culture, e.g. that the sun or moon are deities or that the skulls of ancestors hold power, or that worship of animal spirits brings luck in the hunt or that a man called Jesus ascended to a place called Heaven. But these are not Great Lies in the sense of a real deceit that any individuals are deliberately implementing; they are a cultural model that usefully aligns society and in which populations *honestly* believe. In acknowledging the similarity of CAGW to religion, it is the similar roots and spread of belief that have to be understood to make progress in dissecting the phenomena, and so hopefully helping to combat some heavy downsides.

Gail Combs
December 26, 2013 9:40 am

Richard D says: December 26, 2013 at 12:56 am
…The physics demonstrates CO2 can warm….
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Not quite.
The physics shows CO2 can retard the outgoing long wave radiation. CO2 can’t warm unless it undergoes an exothermic chemical reaction. :>)

December 26, 2013 9:41 am

Gail Combs says: December 26, 2013 at 9:05 am
I think age brings keener vision, but I suspect the things we then see have in fact always been going on.

AlecM
December 26, 2013 9:54 am

@Gail Combs: There has never been any experimental proof of the IPCC’s claimed thermalisation of absorbed IR energy above that needed for ‘Local Thermodynamic Equilibrium’ in the gas phase. The fact that they decided to replace standard radiative physics with totally imaginary physics is their problem, not mine, as experimental data disprove ‘the consensus’..
The proof of this failure is the insistence by IPCC researchers that H2O IR in OLR is from the stratosphere whereas the spectral temperature is ~ -1.5 deg C, or 2.6 km in temperate zones. This is because decreasing humidity ensures the mean free path for pseudo-diffusion of H2O IR > Local Thermodynamic Equilibrium** increases rapidly with altitude, hence the probability of escape to Space rapidly increases above a critical combination of relative humidity and pressure.
It does not work for CO2 bands because that gas is well mixed so its spectral temperature is set mainly by the lower stratosphere.
Basically, the end of the ‘consensus’ is all over bar politicians desperately clinging to power.
**Standard Statistical Thermodynamics means GHG-absorbed IR cannot thermalise in that gas volume for which the local IR Density of States is set by Temperature. Instead, it has to pseudo-diffuse to condensed matter which has sufficient band broadening from interaction with internal kinetic energy to thermalise external IR from a warmer source. That matter can be in Space.

December 26, 2013 10:00 am

AlecM says:
December 26, 2013 at 9:54 am
@Gail Combs: There has never been any experimental proof of the IPCC’s claimed thermalisation of absorbed IR energy above that needed for ‘Local Thermodynamic Equilibrium’ in the gas phase.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Well I can imagine that you may be correct… except that isn’t their claim.

Gail Combs
December 26, 2013 10:01 am

Bruce Cobb says: December 26, 2013 at 4:29 am
….There is a viciousness to this new form of atheism which I find repugnant….
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
You nailed it.
I am seeing viciousness in attacks on the religious, on Den*ers, on conservatives, on whites just for being white, on anyone who is not ‘Politically Correct,’ who does not kowtow to the MSM cause de jure.
It reminds me of the teacher who not only turned a blind eye to bullying but actively joined in. It is no longer the ‘Rule of Law’ but the rule of the rabid mob disguised as ‘Social Justice’ or ‘Equality’ or ‘Democracy’ or whatever other catchy phrase the orchestrators are currently using.

AlecM
December 26, 2013 10:35 am

: no professional scientist or engineer can accept the IPCC claim that the Earth’s surface Radiation Field causes the lower atmosphere to expand by thermalising in the gas phase. This is not possible because a RF is the potential energy flux to a sink at absolute zero.
GHGs do absorb IR energy but the atmosphere resonates as EM energy above LTE pseudo-diffuses to condensed matter. This is the 23 W/m^2 (non self-absorbed H2O bands); 40 W/m^2 goes directly to Space by the ‘atmospheric window’. The operational emissivity, 0.16, is set by the vector sum of opposing surface and atmospheric Radiation Fields. In the Tyndall experiment, thermalisation was at the brass tube; no-one has ever done such an experiment with no container.
This is not to say there is no conversion of GHG-absorbed IR energy to kinetic energy, just that the identical EM energy must simultaneously be ejected from the local volume to comply with the Law of Equipartition of Energy. This is standard physics completely ignored by the IPCC; Will Happer warned of this in 1993.
So, IR heating of the atmosphere has been exaggerated 6.85x. It would have been 14.7x but it is reduced by foolishly claiming Kirchhoff’s Law of Radiation applies at ToA. This is to claim the H2O and atmospheric window IR from within the atmosphere is generated at ToA: ludicrous.
The artificial modelled temperature rise plus 3x exaggerated GHE causes the imaginary ‘positive feedback. The temperature rise is offset by hind-casting with exaggerated low level cloud cooling. So, the IPCC climate models cannot predict climate. It’s s pity because but for this intransigent mixing up of Radiation Fields and net Irradiance which is what really drives the radiative flux, also the IR physics, the real science could be recovered and with that the integrity of those in charge. However, it is politically impossible so we must have IPCC death by 1000 experimental cuts.

December 26, 2013 10:38 am

AlecM says:
December 26, 2013 at 10:35 am
: no professional scientist or engineer can accept the IPCC claim that the Earth’s surface Radiation Field causes the lower atmosphere to expand by thermalising in the gas phase.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
The IPCC makes no such claim.

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