Joe Hanson (via a retweet from Gavin Schmidt) tips us to an interesting video that gives some insight into the complexity of measuring sea level. A good use of 3 minutes follows. Watch.
Joe Hanson (via a retweet from Gavin Schmidt) tips us to an interesting video that gives some insight into the complexity of measuring sea level. A good use of 3 minutes follows. Watch.
Or you can just adjust the measurements to what you would like it to be!
Andres Valencia-
When looking at the map and the difference between the New Orleans area and say Miami or Charleston, we can see how much subsidence influences the numbers. Likewise isostatic rebound up in Alaska. Lots of things going on. That is a great map.
Bychart says:
November 26, 2013 at 11:55 pm
What about erosion.
I agree, what about all the land that is added to the water? Doesn’t that just push sea level up? Linear in, linear up…
You lose.
I’ve known about orthometric vs. geodetic heights for some time, but then, as a sea surveyor for some 35 years, so I should.
Some others above have mentioned actual sea level measurement, so here goes.
I had a chat at a trade show to some chaps from the Proudman Oceanographic Lab (one of the froremost labs in the world for tidal matters) about their charts displaying how sea level is rising due to Global Warming and asked them how they measured it. The answer came that they took them from a network od tide gauges, as I’d expected. Where were they? I queried? Placed like Sydney, Hawaii, Cape Town, Bombay, etc. So, on the forearc of growing mountain ranges, a bloody great shield volcano, etc., etc.?
In the UK, Land Levelling Datum is at Newlyn, in the southwest. By carefull levelling, this level has been carried accross the country. You use it to put in a tide gauge. When you’re doing surveys for a navigational chart, though, your average seafarer couldn’t give a monkey’s about Newlyn, he wants to know how much water he’s got under his keel. So you usually choose a zero datum such that the sea level will almost never get that low, and call it Chart Datum. Then you work out the relation between that and the land levelling datum, so that you can relate stuff on land to the water. Clear so far?
OK, how was the Newlyn Datum determined? By years of careful observations of Sea Level! So land levels are determined from sea level, and sea levels from land levels. ???
In addition to which, only about 18,000 years ago there was a couple of miles of ice sitting in the centre of Great Britain, which pushed it down. As the Earth has about the consistency of jelly at that scale, the land arond the edges bulged up in a Periglacial Bulge. Quite suddenly, the ice melted, so the Pennines are now rising and the periglacial bulge (including Newlyn) is sinking. Or would be if the whole island wasn’t also tilting to the south east.
That’s the UK, with probably the oldest records and expertise in tidal and sea level measurement. The rest of the world is later, with less well understood data.
You still want to believe in global sea level rises at all, let alone a few millimetres per century?
Apologies for typos. Why can’t we edit this?
eo says:
November 27, 2013 at 12:07 am
Not so, the rotation is (more or less) constant, so Newton’s First Law of Motion applies.
Peter Miller says:
November 26, 2013 at 11:49 pm
“And to top everything, we rely on sea level measurements, using the speed of light, from satellites in decaying ellipsoid orbits.
Then there are also these factors to consider: wave heights, currents, tides, winds, isostatic rebound, tectonic movements and seasonal changes in ocean temperature.
And we believe we can measure changes in sea levels to an accuracy of 0.01mm!?!……………”
Yes, I totally agree with Peter.
And, are tides factored in accurately?
The UN IPCC sea level scare is a COS in my opinion.
Yes, Birdieshooter, thanks. We can see the details in the arrows and the trend values. http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/ is definitely a good map by NOAA’s Tides&Currents.
Off topic, sorry, but have you seen this? Groningen (Netherlands) suffered a level 3 earth quake which is ascribed to gas recovery by the Nederlandse Aardolie Maatschappij. 69 Building have been damaged. See here:
http://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2013/07/03/enkele-schademeldingen-na-lichte-aardbeving-in-groningen/
That’s the UK, with probably the oldest records and expertise in tidal and sea level measurement. The rest of the world is later, with less well understood data.
You still want to believe in global sea level rises at all, let alone a few millimetres per century?
I don’t think things are quite as bad as you make them out to be. People have been sailing the world for hundreds of years, and there is reasonably reliable tide gauge data from all over the world going back well over 100 years. The tide gauges, it is true, won’t reflect coastal uplift, but on average one expects uplift and sinking to about balance — some places may rise, but others will fall. Even without any effort made to identify those places/trends by other means, I rather trust the average of tide gauge data (more than I trust satellite data, actually — to many modern apples being compared to historical oranges).
It isn’t a few millimeters a century, either — it is a few millimeters a year, 2-3 cm/decade, some 20 cm/century. Again, the tide gauges might or might not do a good job of resolving a year’s changes on a scale of mm, but 2 cm is pretty hard to miss and 2 cm plus or minus 2 mm pretty easy to believe. That’s the kind of result summarized here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Trends_in_global_average_absolute_sea_level,_1870-2008_%28US_EPA%29.png
One can worry about whether or not the satellite numbers in the last 15 years of this figure (that doesn’t seem to extend to 2013 for some reason) are comparable, and as has been pointed out in other posts/threads, some of the tide gauges used are probably rejectable on the basis of egregious coastal changes as opposed to actual SLR, but there is little doubt that the tide gauges themselves show a total SLR of around 9 inches over 140 years, and there isn’t any particularly good reason to doubt that the sea level is currently continuing to rise at a rate of around 3 mm/year. That rate is hardly unprecedented in the tide gauge data — there are steeper rises in the 1930-1950 early 20th century warming (that was almost certainly not driven by CO_2) — and it is not, actually, alarming. It is boring. If SL continued to rise at 3 mm/year for the rest of the century nobody would, or should, much care, any more than there has been any panic caused by a rise of about that rate in the last century. Coastal changes due to other factors (such as hurricanes or changes in tidal current patterns or due to silting) are usually a lot more important and happen a lot faster.
In a sense, whether the isostatic level of “the sea” is rising is irrelevant anyway. What we care about is whether or not it is rising on the coasts, and coastal gauges are a direct measure of this. What satellites show about the ocean bulging (or not) in the middle of the Atlantic is almost irrelevant.
The major fraction of SLR comes not from land-based ice melt, but from the thermal expansion of the water above the thermocline as it gradually warms post-Wisconsin glaciation. There are lovely and again, fairly reliable pictures of this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Post-Glacial_Sea_Level.png
Note well the scale is twenty METERS — the thickness of the line is around a meter, and the entire changes in the former figure over a century aren’t even close to this. Note also the time scale of things like “the meltwater pulse” produced when the land mass glaciers rapidly melted, to be terminated by the Younger Dryas (return to partial glaciation for a thousand years or so). The slope of SLR on this timescale appears to still be rising as it approaches the present at a rate of a meter per thousand years, but note well that the data does not resolve to annual or even century scale changes — it is pretty sparse. Nevertheless, if you look closely you can see a single red dot corresponding to the MWP and a single dot corresponding to the LIA at the far right hand edge of the curve, suggesting that the current SLR is still dominated by “rebound” from the SLF (sea level FALL) of the LIA, and that the current level is within a hair of the average over several thousand years (where a “hair” on this scale means “within a meter” since smaller variations are invisible).
This is a very instructive figure, actually. If we return to glaciation, one of the first effects is going to be the leaving of all of the world’s major ports high and dry. Note that the change in SL over 22,000 years was a rise of 120 to 130 METERS, and that, if anything, the rise rate has come very close to levelling. OTOH, even in the worst of the warming rises, SL did indeed rise five to ten meters “overnight” (over a few hundred years). This makes Hansen’s claim of a 5 m SLR over a century “barely” believable, if one assumes that the entire continent of Antarctica and/or the entire Greenland plateau start to melt in a near-tropical breeze. More realistically, the rise rate during the Holocene Optimum, when temperatures were at their highest and there was still a lot of unmelted ice was around a meter/century (a rate that persisted for some 4000 years, BTW). EVEN with temperatures that persisted at or close to optimum levels from 7000 to 9000 years ago, SLR had long since tapered off since most of the temperate zone glaciers were gone and the remaining ones were largely immune to global warming.
Just one of many things that we don’t really understand and cannot model.
rgb
NOAA report: The Budget of Recent Global Sea Level Rise 2005-2012
For decadal and longer time scales, global mean sea level change results from two major processes that alter the total volume of the ocean.
Changes in the total heat content and salinity produce density (steric) changes.
The exchange of water between the oceans and other reservoirs (glaciers, ice caps, and ice sheets, and other land water reservoirs) results in mass variations.
With sufficient observations of sea level, ocean temperatures and salinity, and either land reservoirs or ocean mass, the total budget of global mean sea level can in principle be closed.
Expressed in terms of globally-averaged height, contributions to the total budget of global mean sea level are
SLtotal = SLsteric + SLmass
where SLtotal is total sea level, SLsteric is the steric component of sea level, and SLmass is the ocean mass component.
In this analysis, the global sea level rise budget for 2005-2012 is closed when the Paulson GIA correction is applied. The sum of steric sea level rise and the ocean mass component has a trend of 1.1 ± 0.8 mm/a over the period when the Paulson GIA mass correction is applied, well overlapping total sea level rise observed by Jason-1 and Jason-2 (1.3 ± 0.9 mm/a) within a 95% confidence interval.
From The Budget of Recent Global Sea Level Rise 2005-2012 (.pdf, NOAA report, June 2012. Revised January 2013)
See also NOAA Tides & Currents (Operational Oceanographic Data)
– Sea Level Trends (World Map), at http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/
The The Budget of Recent Global Sea Level Rise 2005-2012 (.pdf, NOAA report, June 2012. Revised January 2013) is at http://ibis.grdl.noaa.gov/SAT/SeaLevelRise/documents/NOAA_NESDIS_Sea_Level_Rise_Budget_Report_2012rev1.pdf
To rgbatduke:
Have you ever visited the late John Daly’s site,
“Still waiting for Greenhouse”, particularly the
area devoted to the sea level measurements at
the “Isle of the Dead” near Tasmania?
http://www.john-daly.com/deadisle/index.htm
Seeing a mark that was struck in 1841 still above
sea level in 2004 puts the 20-30 cm/per century
in doubt. John Daly, who was an amateur observer,
but in my opinion, a careful one, estimated only 2.5
cm of sea level rise over 160 years at this marker.
Interesting video, Mr. Watts!
@ur momisugly agfosterjr says:
November 26, 2013 at 3:09 pm
Robert A. Taylor says:
November 26, 2013 at 12:09 pm
===========================================
You learned right. See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravity_anomaly
But that’s low resolution. At high resolution big marine volcanoes do attract the sea and raise sea level a little. –AGF
===========================================
So 1950’s Geology 101 agrees with Wikipedia.
Since the Video was wrong about that, I wonder what else it was incorrect about.
May seem like a stupid question to some but what happens on the sea bed?Is it an impermeable membrane or can water leak through it and if so what happens to it.To use a crude analogy is the basin a bit like a bath tub where you can let water out by pulling the plug?
The interesting video shows the complexity of measuring sea level. The point, clearly made, is that sea level is a mythical entity. Having realized that we also have to realize that “Isostatic Rebound” is also a mythical entity: it does not exist. Darwin deduced erroneously that the land rose from the sea, what he termed “Raised Beaches” Agassiz built his Post Glacial Rebound Theory on Darwin’s error by stating that ” The reason the land rose from the sea is because of the Great Ice Age burden which depressed the land: now that the Ice has melted the land is rebounding” The original Darwinian observation was fiction and hence the Agassiz theory of Post Glacial Rebound is also fiction.
It is time that the error is corrected. V. Mueller has stated that if you multiply the Hubble Constant by the Radius of the Earth we get the rate of Isostatic Rebound. What Mueller has shown, mistakenly, is profound proof of Earth Expansion. The rate Mueller has shown is the same rate of the earth’s expansion proposed by Earth Expansionists. So Mueller has shown unwittingly that the earth is expanding at a rate which is identical to the rate of Isostatic Rebound. If Post Glacial Rebound is mythical the rate of expansion must be attributed to the actual expansion of the earth. Richard Guy Mse, Structural Engineer. [number removed, mod]