From the University of Warwick, and the ultra-short baseline department comes this study of ridiculous proportions. I don’t have the words to accurately describe this utter waste of time and money. I can just see future NOAA bulletins:
HURRICANE WHOPPER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122005
2100Z SAT AUG 27 2015
AT 4 PM CDT…2100Z…THE HURRICANE WATCH IS EXTENDED WESTWARD TO
INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA AND EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA-ALABAMA BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER.
GIVEN THE ACTIVITY MEASURED ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND FLICKR A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WHOPPER AND POST PICTURES OF ANY OBSERVED STORM ACTIVITY TO HELP NHC GAUGE CENTRAL PRESSURE.
Hurricane Sandy’s impact measured by millions of Flickr pictures
A new study has discovered a striking connection between the number of pictures of Hurricane Sandy posted on Flickr and the atmospheric pressure in New Jersey as the hurricane crashed through the US state in 2012.
Hurricane Sandy was the second-costliest hurricane to hit the US, hitting 24 states in late October last year, with New Jersey one of the worst affected.
In 2012 32 million photos were posted on image hosting website Flickr and by counting the number of pictures tagged either ‘Hurricane Sandy’, ‘hurricane’ or ‘sandy’ between October 20 and November 20 2012, a team of researchers led by two Warwick Business School academics, Tobias Preis, Associate Professor of Behavioural Science and Finance, and Suzy Moat, Assistant Professor of Behavioural Science, found a strong link to atmospheric pressure dropping in New Jersey.
In fact, the highest number of pictures posted were taken in the same hour in which Hurricane Sandy made landfall in New Jersey. In Quantifying the Digital Traces of Hurricane Sandy on Flickr, to be published in Scientific Reports today (Tuesday November 5), Tobias Preis and Suzy Moat, of Warwick Business School, Steven Bishop and Philip Treleaven, of UCL, and H. Eugene Stanley, of Boston University, suggest that using such online indicators could help governments measure the impact of disasters.
Preis and Moat’s work has previously uncovered a range of intriguing links between what people look for online and their behaviour in the real world. Recent results revealed that changes in how frequently people searched for financial information on Google and Wikipedia could be interpreted as early signs of stock market moves, and that internet users in countries with a higher per capita GDP search for more information about the future.
“Our steadily increasing use of digital technology is opening up new and fruitful ways to document and follow human actions,” said Dr Preis. “Building on our recent work, we asked whether data from photos uploaded to Flickr could have been used to measure the impact of Hurricane Sandy.
“Our new results show that the greatest number of photos taken with Flickr titles, descriptions or tags including the words ‘hurricane’, ‘sandy’ or ‘Hurricane Sandy’ were taken in exactly the hour which Hurricane Sandy made landfall in New Jersey.
“Examination of the number of Hurricane Sandy related photos taken before and after landfall reveals a striking correlation with environmental measurements of the development of the hurricane.” Dr Moat added: “As the severity of a hurricane in a given area increases, atmospheric pressure drops. We found that as atmospheric pressure in New Jersey fell the number of photos taken rose and as atmospheric pressure climbed again the number of photos taken fell. (See graphs attached)
“Plotting the data revealed that the number of photos taken increased continuously while ‘Sandy’ was moving towards the coast of the US. This study would suggest that in cases where no external sensors are available, it may be possible to use the number of Flickr photos relating to a topic to gauge the current level of this category of problems.
“Flickr can be considered as a system of large scale real-time sensors, documenting collective human attention. Increases in Flickr photo counts with particular labels may reveal notable increases in attention to a particular issue, which in some cases may merit further investigation for policy makers.
“Appropriate leverage of such online indicators of large disasters could be useful to policy makers and others charged with emergency crisis management: in particular if no secondary environmental measures are available.”
Quantifying the Digital Traces of Hurricane Sandy on Flickr is published in Nature Publishing Group’s Scientific Reports today, at http://www.nature.com/srep/2013/131105/srep03141/full/srep03141.html
This URL will become live when the embargo lifts at 2pm UK time on November 5 2013. Copies of the paper ahead of the embargo can also be requested from Tobias.Preis@wbs.ac.uk.
its really about time that channel 4 UK did a “Global Warming Swindle 2” they would have TONS of info (climategate, current temperatures etc ). I hope someone here could contact the producers of that original show. It would be a great money spinner for them.
Maybe this is like the ‘Meme Effect ‘.Using social media to find the meme.Once you have a meme on or about something you can use it to make predictions/projections.And with the internet and mass communications.You can quickly determine the direction the parade(bandwagon) is going.The parade in this case would be the storm/damage.
Thanks and have a good day.
“Our new results show that the greatest number of photos taken with Flickr titles, descriptions or tags including the words ‘hurricane’, ‘sandy’ or ‘Hurricane Sandy’ were taken in exactly the hour which Hurricane Sandy made landfall in New Jersey.”
But is there a correlation with tags including “Elvis”?
is anyone thinking what I am thinking ? (evil grin)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Institute_for_Social_Research
Back in the 1920s, the fields of sociology and social psychology really developed – espe influenced by the “Frankfurt School.”
Interesting. It is clever to study how people perceive aspects of a hurricane, as well as study the hurricane. Once you know how the concept of “hurricane” gets formed, via social avenues and influences, in any one person’s mind,
**you no longer need the hurricane***
you just need to start at the point of social influence.
You can create almost anything once you no longer need the actual reality as the basis for everyone’s perceptions and opinions of reality.
This is my view of that saying about repeating something enough.
As Sandy came ashore, I was clicking on those coastal buoys to see if wind speed hit hurricane status circa Cape May NJ. It never did.
Knowing the media, and knowing hurricanes as well as the next drenched, wind-blown amateur, I predicted all of this, before it happened to my (un-interested) spouse.
We watched as a non-hurricane became a hurricane. Through the understanding that media forms the views of many, a hurricane was created. Nay, a super-hurricane.
This is not to discount the impact of the storm. Snow melts do all kinds of damage. For the great 1927 flood of the Mississippi, with nary a hurricane, they had to blow the dikes near New Orleans for this one…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Mississippi_Flood_of_1927
Before this study can even be valid as a measure of social impact there needs to be a shred of users of social media. Are all age groups represented? Are the sexes (and various spins) equally represented? Races, ethnic groups? Income levels? Geographic locations? etc. You get the picture.
You’re all being slightly closed minded about this. It’s very interesting with the likes of Twitter and instant uploading with mobile phones etc that it does seem possible for realtime insights to be gained from the actions of a great mass of people. I remember recently reading about the appearance of discussion of certain stocks on Twitter being an indicator of imminent price moves and the news is always full of of stuff that’s “trending on Twitter”.
There’s really nothing wrong with embracing new sources of data, memory says Antony was pushing the idea of people turning their cars into mobile weather stations (???). What’s wrong with gaining data from social media, as long as you remain sceptical until proved useful. Just saying!
So I suppose this has some value… the impact of a storm is dependant on the strength of the storm and the population affected. The local population can be measured by the proxy of social media.
So this has some merit.
And it works for asteroids too:
http://xkcd.com/1239/
Aphan says:
November 5, 2013 at 10:47 am
====
Jorgek and davidh-
Now, this is a form of information gathering that is still in its infancy. I suggest the original paper does over-hype the outcome, but, still, this mode of info-gathering/research/using taxpayer Pounds [at least three authors in the UK] can give useful results.
Sure – a fire – dial 911 [or 999 or 112], naturally.
Don’t restrict to [here] Flickr.
Or weather.
Do account for IQ – & employment level, age mix, and perhaps more.
This is an interesting field, where perceptions can be used.
I bet Tony B Liar [of dazzling memory (dazzlingly incompetent!)] wishes that he – or the spouse – had thought of this . . . . .
Auto
HR says:
November 5, 2013 at 12:39 pm
== == ==
What’s wrong with gaining data from social media, as long as you remain sceptical until proved useful. Just saying!
Concur totally.
Auto
Davidmhoffer said:
“You of course have to adjust for population density. But if in the middle of a disaster you get 1,000 twitters with the word “fire” in them all from within a two block radius, there’s a pretty darn good chance that there is a major fire in that area. If photo uploads on flickr and facebook show what is burning, say a 50 story building versus 50 houses versus a manufacturing plant that makes fireworks, would that information not be of value to emergency dispatchers and first responders on their way?”
Perhaps you aren’t as current on today’s technology as some people, but a PHONE CALL to 911 stating “There’s a 50 story building” OR “50 houses” OR “a fireworks plant” “in the vicinity of… is on fire” is a MUCH faster and efficient way for emergency dispatchers and first responders to get the information they NEED, than watching what is trending on Twitter, Facebook and Flickr. Not to mention that most twitters might say “Fire in the building across the street” rather than “A 50 story building on the corner of First and Capital street is on fire”. People also RETWEET photos they get from their FRIENDS twitters and those people most likely do NOT live “within a two block radius” of the building that is on fire.
Police and Fire Fighters respond whether or NOT “there’s a pretty darn good chance” that the fire being reported is real of not. While they are on the way to the fire reported, dispatch will pull the records of that address and report “Site is a Fireworks Manufacturing plant” “explosions reported” which upon getting close to the scene, can be verified BY the eyesight of the first responders. Firefighters should be, and are, prepping and hanging on while en-route, not watching an iphone or ipad and waiting for pictures to upload.
I’m NOT saying that social media isn’t a great way to track people’s actions and preferences etc. It SHOULD be studied as a social science. Pretending that “atmospheric pressure” is somehow related to the number of incoming photos being posted during a hurricane, and then submitting your study to a SCIENCE or NATURE magazine as if it has some significant application OTHER THAN real time documentation is insane.
Well, I suppose if they can get some idiot to pay them for this crap – and they always can – then why bother actually doing anything useful for a living? I just wish I’d got that much brass neck.
TheLastDemocrat says:
November 5, 2013 at 12:25 pm
“You can create almost anything once you no longer need the actual reality as the basis for everyone’s perceptions and opinions of reality.”
Yep. Eddie Bernays, Propaganda [1928] (but Eddie was already famous during WW I and became the advisor to W Wilson, presenting him as the bringer of democracy to war torn Europe, which worked splendidly, maybe except for Germany which was shackled by the Versailles treaty).
http://aaa-books.blogspot.de/2007/06/edward-bernays-propaganda-1928.html
I’m sure I am missing something, but here is a direct quote from the “release”:
“Appropriate leverage of such online indicators of large disasters could be useful to policy makers and others charged with emergency crisis management: in particular if no secondary environmental measures are available.”
==============
So, now it is a popularity contest ?
I still don’t really understand “nulls”, but how about this one:
“If a tree falls in a forest and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound?”
That someone propsed and had this approved is beyond words. At least it kept the reaserchers off the streets. But then, if they were on the street I’m sure there would have been street people who would have slapped them up-side the head and asked “Are you serious”? The problem is that they live VERY sheltered academic lives completely cut off from having to actually work for a living. I’m so glad I am a taxpayer. Next time I ask for a raise I will tell them its to support such important research such as this. Just for forms sake I will use the /sarc.
I will admit to an insatiable curiosity regarding a host university who’s “Associate Professor of Behavioural Science and Finance” (ya hey!) was able to actually conceive of such a thing to research. So, I clicked on the link to Warwick U. in the very 1st sentence in the post and then on ‘About’ at the header at Warwick’s website. In the University’s very own narcissistic, egotistic, and grossly self promoting words I got this:
‘The University of Warwick is globally connected, forward-looking and entrepreneurial. We create new ways of thinking and achieving: making us stand out from our competitors and the more ‘traditional universities’ and …
Warwick is one of the UK’s great success stories. In less than fifty years since being founded we’ve become one of the UK’s best universities, consistently at the top …
We’re a university that champions independent thinking and as well as being founded, first and foremost, on academic excellence, a key driver of the Warwick success story so far is our entrepreneurial spirit – a key strength is our relevance to society and our close links with business and industry. Companies tap into Warwick knowledge to develop their own strengths and ensure they remain at the cutting edge within their industries. And that cutting edge insight is developed out of truly world class research: Warwick ranks 7th overall in the UK according to the latest Research Assessment Exercise.’
What’s interesting about the foregoing bombastic gruel is how highly spiced it is while leaving nothing but an overly tart but, at the same time, flavorless taste upon the palate. But, then again, that’s probably what’s intended. How else could an extraordinarily self centered, extraordinarily ambitious, but extraordinarily talentless group of rent seekers sell themselves and their institution by describing themselves in any other way?
And how else could the Flickr research, contrived by such individuals, be described? Of course it’s “Forward-looking” ’cause it certainly couldn’t be relying on research from the past since our ancestors certainly had better things to do. And, as far as “Entrepreneurial”, well, it definitely adds a heretofore unknown quality to the word. And “New ways of thinking and achieving”? Just replace the word ‘thinking’ with ‘humor’ (although it is, admittedly a little lame on that too), and ‘achieving’ with ‘ambition’ and we’re good to go. And as far as “Standing out from our competitors”, well, I would certainly hope so. Welcome to the new world of the “cutting edge.”
@HR:
“You’re all being slightly closed minded about this. It’s very interesting with the likes of Twitter and instant uploading with mobile phones etc that it does seem possible for realtime insights to be gained from the actions of a great mass of people. ”
Cellphones with cameras and Internet access saturation level of landfall area will be the biggest factor, not intensity of the storm.
When I first read this I was sure this was an article from “the onion”
no such luck
go figure, as the storm hits land the amount of pictures spike.
I’m going to apply for funding to prove the correlation between flickr photos and the floods in Alberta and Colorado.
actually this study does prove one thing, the awareness of weather events is increasing, Not the weather events themselves. This proves why the alarmist say extreme weather is increasing, its the knowledge of extreme weather events, ( as nearly the entire world carries a high definition video camera in their pocket.) that is increasing exponentially while the relative actual occurrences remains static.
Eliza says:
November 5, 2013 at 11:14 am
its really about time that channel 4 UK did a “Global Warming Swindle 2″ they would have TONS of info (climategate, current temperatures etc ). I hope someone here could contact the producers of that original show. It would be a great money spinner for them.
—————————————————————————————————————
The documentary was produced by ‘WAGTV’ and on their Website they have an ‘Extended Version’ available.
A quote from them,
“We have received literally thousands of emails from scientists and others expressing their support and encouragement. These emails are also often very useful, steering us towards new studies in different areas. Please keep sending them.
The email address is: gw@wagtv.com”
Read more here—
http://www.greatglobalwarmingswindle.co.uk/
Social media might indeed be the right thing to analyse to assess the success of a propaganda campaign.
davidmhoffer: “Leveraging social media to understand in real-time which areas are most heavily hit, and by what (fallen trees, flooding, fire, what?) could be of immense value in emergency response.”
I don’t disagree. But if they’re taking photos on their cellphone, and then using 3g to post it to the internet… .then there’s 911 already. So to the degree that this is useful, it is foremost an accusation that the government is and has been going all Keystone Kops about disaster issues.
And if that’s not suitable by itself, FEMA already uses IHOP — yes, International House of Pancakes — as their go-to gold model of managing disasters. So even if you state the government isn’t feckless; the government already states that it is, and that it fails to be as good as a hillbilly breakfast joint.
It is, without question, a data miners dream. But the best response to emergencies are the people already there and on the ground, doing people things. Completely undirected by centralized data miners using Facebook to divine models of reality two links back from Kevin Bacon.
But as it stands, the proper answer is to leverage locals, not local knowledge. And so if we’re going to waste taxpayer funds on this, we could have done better if the government raffled of IHOP franchises.
Looks like flicker users are motivated by a drop in barometric pressure. So are fish.
please call me Johan from now on
I took a Coursera MOOC “Maps and the Geospatial Revolution” (recommended for those interested if it runs again, even though it was from Penn State) and one week the students went looking for weather events on Flickr.
There was a large cluster of about 100 photos tagged with “tornado” near Pittsburg, Kansas, far more than anywhere else.
Further investigation showed a local dramatic production of “The Wizard of Oz”.
Aphan;
Perhaps you aren’t as current on today’s technology as some people, but a PHONE CALL to 911 stating
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Sigh. Before you get all condescending about how current I am on technology, perhaps you should consider that the one not current is yourself. These kinds of things are ALREADY being built into all kinds of information gathering systems to augment traditional systems such as phoning 911. I’m pointing out the additional information which could be made available to 911 operators and others. I tried to provide a couple of examples without going into a lot of detail. More detail than that potentially gets me in trouble with some of my customers, but I can assure you that I am current.