Claim: '[in]ability to adapt to changes in climate patterns' is causing losses in third world countries

From Inderscience Publishers and United Nations University:

Loss and damage from climate change

Despite attempts at adaption losses and damage from climate change are significant

An open access special issue of the International Journal of Global Warming brings together, for the first time, empirical evidence of loss and damage from the perspective of affected people in nine vulnerable countries. The articles in this special issue show how climatic stressors affect communities, what measures households take to prevent loss and damage, and what the consequences are when they are unable to adjust sufficiently. The guest-editors, Kees van der Geest and Koko Warner of the United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS) in Bonn, Germany, introduce the special issue with an overview of key findings from the nine research papers, all of which are available online free of charge.

‘Loss and damage’ refers to adverse effects of climate variability and climate change that occur despite mitigation and adaptation efforts. Warner and van der Geest discuss the loss and damage incurred by people at the local-level based on evidence from research teams working in nine vulnerable countries: Bangladesh, Bhutan, Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, The Gambia, Kenya, Micronesia, Mozambique and Nepal. The research papers pool data from 3269 household surveys and more than 200 focus groups and expert interviews.

The research reveals four loss and damage pathways. Residual impacts of climate stressors occur when:

  1. existing coping/adaptation to biophysical impact is not enough;
  2. measures have costs (including non-economic) that cannot be regained;
  3. despite short-term merits, measures have negative effects in the longer term; or
  4. no measures are adopted – or possible – at all.

The articles in this special issue provide evidence that loss and damage happens simultaneously with efforts by people to adjust to climatic stressors. The evidence illustrates loss and damage around barriers and limits to adaptation: growing food and livelihood insecurity, unreliable water supplies, deteriorating human welfare and increasing manifestation of erosive coping measures (e.g. eating less, distress sale of productive assets to buy food, reducing the years of schooling for children, etc.). These negative impacts touch upon people’s welfare and health, social cohesion, culture and identity – values that contribute to the functioning of society but which elude monetary valuation.

The publication of this set of research papers is very timely as loss and damage will be a key topic during the climate negotiations in Warsaw next month (11-22 November 2013), and empirical evidence is still scarce. The findings also contribute to the emerging body of literature on adaptation limits and constraints, a topic that – for the first time – is discussed in a separate chapter of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Working Group 2 (IPCC AR5 WG2).

The issues that have arisen through this research point to an even greater urgency for ambitious mitigation and adaptation that are sufficient to manage climate stressors. If this goal is missed, loss and damage will undermine society´s ability to pursue sustainable development.

“The special issue of the International Journal of Global Warming focuses on a crucial topic: ‘Loss and damage’ which refers to adverse effects of climate variability and climate change that occur despite mitigation and adaptation efforts,” Editor-in-Chief Ibrahim Dincer of the University of Ontario Institute of Technology says. The issue reports on the first ever multi-country study on this emerging topic from the perspective of vulnerable communities in Africa, Asia and the Pacific. The research papers included show that current mitigation and adaptation efforts are not enough. People across the study sites were not passive victims of climate change. A large majority implemented a wide variety of adaptation and coping measures to avoid impacts of climate stressors, but these measures were often insufficient or came at a cost. The negative effects were not simply monetary, there were cultural losses and non-economic costs, in terms of time investment, social-cohesion and livelihood security, were also widespread. “IJGW positions itself uniquely by addressing the issue and offering solutions,” Dincer adds.

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“Loss and damage from climate change: local-level evidence from nine vulnerable countries” in Int. J. Global Warming, 2013, 5, 367-386

In the interests of enhancing global discussions of critical and urgent issues arising from climate change now, the research papers are being made available by Inderscience Publishers free of charge to all readers at the following link:

http://www.inderscience.com/info/inarticletoc.php?jcode=ijgw&year=2013&vol=5&issue=4

Loss and damage from climate change: local-level evidence from nine vulnerable countries

Koko Warner; Kees Van der Geest

DOI: 10.1504/IJGW.2013.057289

Abstract: Loss and damage is already a significant consequence of inadequate

ability to adapt to changes in climate patterns. This paper reports on the first

ever multi-country, evidence-based study on loss and damage from the

perspective of affected people in least developed and other vulnerable

countries. Researchers in Bangladesh, Bhutan, Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, the

Gambia, Kenya, Micronesia, Mozambique and Nepal conducted household

surveys (n=3,269) and more than a hundred focus group discussions and open

interviews about loss and damage. The research reveals four loss and damage

pathways. Residual impacts of climate stressors occur when: 1) existing

coping/adaptation to biophysical impact is not enough; 2) measures have costs

(including non-economic) that cannot be regained; 3) despite short-term merits,

measures have negative effects in the longer term; or 4) no measures are

adopted – or possible – at all.

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Old'un
October 25, 2013 2:48 pm

‘The evidence presented here tells household stories of ‘just getting by”. Sadly, most households have only ever ‘just got by’ in the countries featured in this ‘research’.  It’s called subsistence.
Questionaires and interviews of such households will generate anecdotal evidence at best,  probably biased towards agreeing with the presumed interest of the researcher (eg ‘We are looking into how climate change is affecting your life’).
Mostly rubbish, but it will go down a storm in the Guardian.

Neo
October 25, 2013 2:53 pm

About all that was missing was the elements of investigation for the global socio-economic adaptations required for the climatic impacts vis-à-vis Justin Bieber and Miley Cyrus.

Mike M
October 25, 2013 2:59 pm

“In each case study area, open interviews were conducted with five to ten questionnaire respondents to hear their personal stories of impacts, responses and residual loss and damage. “
And of COURSE we can be certain they were not prompted in any way… They should have videotaped it, a resurrection of “Queen for a Day”.
These nitwits want any excuse they can find to turn the entire third world into one big welfare state instead of helping them establish honest governments and allowing them to develop their own energy resources to get out of poverty via a free market .

October 25, 2013 3:03 pm

This reminds me of a story my father told quite some years ago about his expierince in the OSS during WW II. He helped prepare papers and other essentials for agents operating behind German lines, coordinated their assignments and debriefed them after extraction. He said they discovered that whatever kind of intelligence you tell your agents to look for, that is what they will find. It’s not that they were being dishonest, but telling people to look for specific things can bias their perceptions. So if you were concerned about mechanized units traveling at night over secondary roads and asked agents to look for evidence if same, it was practically guaranteed they would frequent movements of vechicle columns at night over secondary roads. So a perfectly reasonable effort to get specific targeted intelligence sometimes had the effect of manufacturing “intelligence” confirming a suspected activity. And since intelligence units are supposed to develop and report useful intelligence, there is internal resistence to reporting “we really don’t believe what our sources are telling us”. My father said you really had to work hard to figure out how much of what was reported was really credible.
The survey questions only covered “climate risks”. Nobody asked how stressed people were about corrupt or incompetent public officials, gangs of drug thugs, warlords, etc. If you did a similar survey to determine which potential risks of an alien invasion worried people the most (abduction & probing [X-files], having your life energy sucked out [Stargate Atlantis], etc.), you would get similar results and conclude we urgently need to mitigate the risks of an alien invasion.

Ted Swart
October 25, 2013 3:04 pm

Surely climate has always changed in the past, is currenlty changing and will alwasy change. So the need for adaptaion is ever pressnt with us. But, this has abosultely nothing to do with the amount of CO2 in the Earth’s air. And, the amount of money wasted on wind frams, pointless Kyoto accords, carbon taxes and what hve you has served only to divert money that should have been spent on frackning in the short term and on getting atomic energy underway in the long term underway, and planning for sensible adpataion.
Even, just reading the article is a time and energy waster.

Berényi Péter
October 25, 2013 3:10 pm

Well, electricity consumption per capita in states studied is as follows: Bangladesh (28 W), Bhutan (28 W), Burkina Faso (5 W), Ethiopia (4 W), The Gambia (13 W), Kenya (25 W), Federated States of Micronesia (192 W), Mozambique (48 W), Nepal (21 W). Of course they have a problem. On the other hand, Singapore (884 W), which is located in the same general region, can manage, somehow. Source: List of countries by electricity consumption.

Yet another Mike from the Carson Valley where we deal with cold a lot and heat
October 25, 2013 3:40 pm

The whole world is in a terrible state. Somebody needs to underwrite this. Despite man’s best efforts 7 billion people will die in the next 100 years. It is a tragedy beyond description. Who is going to pay for this ? We must begin taxing the wealthy. Why stop at just the carbon molecule, why not methane and the inert gases as well ? How about a small tax for use of oxygen and definitely one for using nitrogen as well ? Radio waves, cosmic rays, sun light, the mind boggles at these opportunities.

son of mulder
October 25, 2013 3:45 pm

When I read the list of countries supposedly impacted Ethiopia stood out as to how things can change in 30 years.
But how has anything changed in the understanding of Ethiopian climate since the 2001 paper by Mike Hulme, Ruth Doherty, Todd Ngara, Mark New, David Lister called ‘African climate change: 1900–2100’?
http://www.int-res.com/abstracts/cr/v17/n2/p145-168/
which contains the following, absolute gem of a description of the real problem with trying to predict what the regional affect of AGW will by and corollary how would one recognise climate change due to AGW?

“The fact that there is a distribution of future climate changes arises not only because of incomplete understanding of the climate system (e.g. the unknown value of the climate sensitivity, different climate model responses, etc.), but also because of the inherent unpredictability of climate (e.g. unknowable future climate forcings and regional differences in the climate system response to a given forcing because of chaos). The ‘true’ climate change distribution is of course unknown……”

fine to this point but then goes on to say

“…..but we can make some sensible guesses as to its magnitude and shape and then make some choices so as to sample a reasonable part of its range.”

One can make guesses but you can’t know they are sensible they just may not sound stupid.
30 years ago Ethiopia was in a terrible drought (remember Live Aid), now the problem is flooding.
No way one can reasonably say that this transistion is down to AGW. It is halfway through a 60 year cycle which might be a reasonable hypothesis given how often 60 year cycles crop up..

DirkH
October 25, 2013 3:59 pm

Robin says:
October 25, 2013 at 1:08 pm
“DirkH-
if you have never looked at the UN’s Alliance of Civilzations group ”
Thanks, will take a look.

James at 48
October 25, 2013 4:17 pm

Here are my observations from the newly industrializing / developing world:
1) Deforestation is still a problem.
2) Flood control tends to be a joke.
3) Respect for property lines and other demarcations is weak.
4) Appropriate regulation of issues affecting the commons is disfunctional to non existent.
5) As as result of 3 and 4, issues such as subsidence from ground water extraction, salt water intrusion, water hole and other surface water drying, wild fires, debris flows, etc, etc are rampant.
6) There are many other issues with similar themes.
All of this results in much death and destruction. Almost none of this is due to any sort of “global climate change.”

Speed
October 25, 2013 4:23 pm

From the paper …
The climate related stressors included: Salinity Intrusion, Changing Monsoon, Drought, Flooding, Coastal Erosion, and Drought and Flood.
With the caveat …
The limitations of the research objective and methods include:
1 attribution of local climatic changes and extreme events to global warming is beyond the scope of this research
[ … ]

So, the title of the paper, “Loss and damage from climate change: local-level evidence from nine vulnerable countries” has nothing to do with human caused, carbon induced climate change but rather with … change. Change that is not quantitatively defined in the paper. How much does the monsoon have to change before it becomes a stressor? Is one dry year a stressor? Two? Three or more?

October 25, 2013 4:39 pm

Due to the general lack of leadership and a
10,000 year old mind set please post the next whiner Mr. Watts.

Bill Illis
October 25, 2013 4:58 pm

Should the United Nations set-up a fund to help these people?
Sure why not.
The best thing the UN could do for them is build some power plants and some power lines. The people of these nations (as all people before them have done who have had this opportunity) will then find ways to make everything work well enough and raise their standard of living 50 fold.
Climate has little to do with it in the end. People have made it work in the most inhospitable climates as well as the most hospitable ones.
The greatest invention in human history – deploying the energy of fossil fuels.
1 large coal-fired power plant does the work of 2 million people doing manual labor.

Bob
October 25, 2013 5:28 pm

I think this article should be the Friday Funny.

Donald Mitchell
October 25, 2013 5:33 pm

Since this climate change is a new and catastrophic phenomena,I suppose that the 14th century Norse on Greenland were not affected by climate change.
This would also suggest that the researchers who have suggested that the great civilizations of South America, Egypt and many other places are completely out of bounds to suggest that drought of other climate changes affected them.

Curious George
October 25, 2013 5:38 pm

Despite the proud title “Loss and damage from climate change”, there is nothing there related to a climate change. Just weather. They are earning their UN money.

Eliza
October 25, 2013 5:43 pm

AW You should be aware off this now google “news” is putting realclimate.org stories as news to a “global warming” search see for yourselves.
https://www.google.com.au/search?hl=en&gl=us&tbm=nws&authuser=0&q=global+warming&oq=global&gs_l=news-cc.1.1.43j0l10j43i53.17765.19827.0.21773.6.5.0.1.1.1.483.1684.1j3-2j2.5.0…0.0…1ac.1.HundkY3tJkQ of 100% stories are now heavily biased to AGW meme. Nearly all

gbaikie
October 25, 2013 5:48 pm

“vulnerable countries: Bangladesh, Bhutan, Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, The Gambia, Kenya, Micronesia, Mozambique and Nepal.”
So places with lovely governments. But they missed N Korea and Cuba.

steveninbrooklyn
October 25, 2013 5:58 pm

Where are the vanishing shorelines?

Dave L
October 25, 2013 6:08 pm

3,000+ household surveys and a 100 focus group surveys. Sounds like lots of baseline climate change data to me (sarcasm!).

DirkH
October 25, 2013 6:23 pm

Eliza says:
October 25, 2013 at 5:43 pm
“AW You should be aware off this now google “news” is putting realclimate.org stories as news to a “global warming” search see for yourselves.”
Google news is 90% liberal anyway. You don’t use Google News to read the truth; you use it to read the lies.

DirkH
October 25, 2013 6:26 pm

Back in 2009 before COP15 I used Google news to find the daily scare from the warmists. Good times, Good times. Today you have to wait for weeks until a warmist scare pops up in the front page.
Go to google and type in “biggest problem of mankind” or so and watch the autocompletion. No warmism there these days. It’s a nice trend check. Warmism the mighty has fallen.

Jeff Alberts
October 25, 2013 6:26 pm

International Journal of Global Warming?? My my, aren’t they behind the times. Perhaps it’s a carryover from the Norse journal of the same name from 1000 years ago.

netprophet
October 25, 2013 6:46 pm

I want to let everyone know that the company I work for (one in the S&P 100) is doing its part to help these climate-ravaged countries. Our food service vendor is reducing its purchases of beef by 20% in favor or other alternatives to reduce its carbon emissions/footprint by a calculated total of 1025 metric tonnes over the course of the next 12 months. Knowing that there is 3,160,000,000,000 metric tonnes of CO2 in the atmosphere, we are reducing worldwide CO2 by 0.0000000324%. It is likely the company will pat itself on the back by including it in the sustainability metrics section in the next annual report.

Jim Clarke
October 25, 2013 6:54 pm

It is truly astounding that this massive study of the empirical evidence of damage produced by climate change does not include any evidence at all that there has been any climate change! No evidence of climate change…just reports of damage from climate change.
These people are delusional!
I think the accused witches of 1692 Salem got a fairer trial than CO2 is getting today.