Claim: 'climate change' caused more deaths in Stockholm – but it may be due to flawed methodology

This is one of those publications where I look at what was done in the paper and just shake my head in disbelief. For starters, according to the data listed in the SI, the supposed extra deaths due to climate change manifesting itself as increased summer temperatures came from model output; they didn’t actually have health services data/coroner data that showed causes of death. They simply assume the model output is valid. And there are other problems, such as their choice of temperature base period of 1900-1929 to compare against the study period of 1980-2009. See more at the end of the post, I need some reader assistance – Anthony

Press Release from Umeå University

Climate change increased the number of deaths

[2013-10-21] The increased temperatures caused by ongoing climate change in Stockholm, Sweden between 1980 and 2009 caused 300 more premature deaths than if the temperature increase did not take place. In Sweden as a whole, it would mean about 1,500 more premature deaths, according to a study from researchers at Umeå University published in the journal Nature Climate Change.

Global warming does not only give a general increase in temperature, but it also increases the frequency, intensity and duration of heat waves. Previous studies have shown that these changes are associated with increased mortality, especially during extremely hot periods. It also speculated that mortality associated with extreme cold could decrease as a result of a warmer climate.

Researchers at the Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, conducted a study in which they examined the extent to which mortality associated with extreme temperatures occurred in Stockholm during the period 1980-2009. In order to assess what can be regarded as extreme temperatures, they compared temperature data from this period with the corresponding data for the period 1900 to 1929.

The study shows that the number of periods of extremely high temperatures increased significantly over the period 1980-2009, all of which contributed to about 300 more deaths during these heat waves than had been the case without climate change.

“Mortality associated with extreme heat during the relevant period was doubled, compared to if we had not had some climate change,” says Daniel Oudin Åström, PhD-student in Occupational and Environmental Medicine, who conducted the study.  “Furthermore, we saw that even though the winters have become milder, extremely cold periods occurred more often, which also contributed to a small increase in mortality during the winter.”

Although the increase in the number of deaths due to extreme temperature overall is quite small over a 30 year period, Daniel Oudin Åström emphasises that the current study only includes the Stockholm area. If the method had been used in the whole of Sweden, or Europe, the increase in the number of deaths would have been much larger. For Sweden as a whole, it is estimated that about 1,500 extra deaths due to climate change had occurred over the past 30 years.

In addition, the researchers only examined mortality in really extreme temperatures. Therefore, the number of premature deaths caused by less extreme temperatures is not included in the study.

Daniel Oudin Åström says that despite the long-standing debate about climate change, Swedes have not changed their attitude and willingness to protect themselves against extreme temperatures.

“The study findings do not suggest any adaptation of the Swedes when it comes to confronting the increasingly warmer climate, such as increased use of air conditioning in elderly housing,” says Daniel Oudin Åström. “It is probably because there is relatively little knowledge in regards to increased temperatures and heat waves on health.”

###

Here is the paper:

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2022.html

Attributing mortality from extreme temperatures to climate change in Stockholm, Sweden

Daniel Oudin Åström, Bertil Forsberg, Kristie L. Ebi & Joacim Rocklöv

Nature Climate Change (2013) doi:10.1038/nclimate2022 

Abstract:

A changing climate is increasing the frequency, intensity, duration and spatial extent of heat waves. These changes are associated with increased human mortality during heat extremes. At the other end of the temperature scale, it has been widely speculated that cold-related mortality could decrease in a warmer world. We aim to answer a key question; the extent to which mortality due to temperature extremes in Stockholm, Sweden during 1980–2009 can be attributed to climate change that has occurred since our reference period (1900–1929). Mortality from heat extremes in 1980–2009 was double what would have occurred without climate change. Although temperature shifted towards warmer temperatures in the winter season, cold extremes occurred more frequently, contributing to a small increase of mortality during the winter months. No evidence was found for adaptation over 1980–2009

===============================================================

More than a couple of things stand out that I’m looking into.

1. A paper they cite by Pat Michaels and Chipp Knappenberger found only one US city that had any mortality increase due to heat, and that was Seattle. Michaels opines that this was likely due to the city being such a cool climate that very little cooling infrastructure was in place in the city. This might also be true of the high latitude city of Stockholm.

2. A cursory check of climate data for Stockholm from NASA GISS shows that something curious happened around 1930. Notice the big step change then:

Stockholm_data_GISTEMP

Source: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/show_station.cgi?id=645024640000&dt=1&ds=12

Note also how much more variance there is after 1930. To me this looks like a classic station move signal, though it could be related to something as simple as a building going up/torn down nearby that affected wind patterns near the station. The fact that they use 1900-1929 as the base period for the model comparison is troubling, since it seems to be the coolest, least variable part of the station record.

Also, for some reason, GISS can’t seem to get data updated for Stockholm past 1994, even though the station continues to produce data. I’ve asked Dr. Gavin Schmidt about this, but he has ignored my request. Perhaps he’s too busy on Twitter to bother.

Waymarking notes of the station:

“When the observatory was renovated and extended in 1875 the thermometer was moved to a metal cage outside a window on the first floor. The current observation site, from 1960, is only about 10 metres away. These few small relocations make Stockholm’s long observation series one of the world’s absolute best. The high quality of the series has recently been documented in several scientific studies.”*

*From Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute SMHI website.

With it being supposedly “…one of the world’s absolute best.” you’d think NASA GISS would want to get current data for it. It’s a travesty they have not updated it since 1994:

Stockholm_GISTEMP

Source: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/find_station.cgi?dt=1&ds=12&name=stockholm

3. The authors cite the shift in temperature distribution during summer as being proof of more heat which would translate into greater mortality(see figure 2 below).

Figure 2: Temperature distribution of 2-day moving average of mean temperatures during summer months.

Temperature distribution of 2-day moving average of mean temperatures during summer months.

Grey distribution, 1900–1929; black distribution, 1980–2009.

Problem is, this data they are plugging into their mortality model appears to come from a single weather station, what I believe is the Stockholm Observatory, though they don’t actually name the station dataset in the paper that I’ve found. The Stockholm Observatory has all sorts of microsite issues that they have not accounted for, such as a brick building nearby and wind shading from rows of vegetation.

Stockholm_observatory_weather_station1

Image from Waymarking.com, taken July 30th, 2010 – more here

Here is the aerial view from Google Earth using the lat/lon provided by Waymarking.com You can see how wind sheltered the station is, especially during summer with all those broadleaf trees around it. One wonders what the site looked like in 1929 and if the weather station was in the same location.

stockholm_weather_station2

The microsite issues coupled with whatever happened in 1930 (which looks like a station move to me) could easily explain a good portion of summer month temperature increases from 1980-2009 compared to 1900-1929

4. There’s other cherry picking going on; they cite Stockholm as being representative of the changes in Sweden, yet study no other cities or stations to test that theory. They are using mean temperatures, rather than looking at Tmax. Mean temperatures are sensitive to effects of microsite bias which mostly show up in Tmin. If heat waves are really increasing in Stockholm, affecting mortality, it should show up in Tmax, yet they didn’t test for this that I can find.

I think this paper is seriously flawed because the authors assume the temperature data is “near perfect” and chose an inappropriate base period which exacerbates the comparison differential. Whether this is incompetence or cherry picking remains to be seen.

I’m working on locating metadata for a detailed history of the station in Stockholm to test out what I have observed, but I need help.

Anyone reading who is familiar with the station and the meteorological service there, I ask that you weigh in with a comment below. I need the help since I’m not well versed in Swedish. Any help will be appreciated.

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“In addition, the researchers only examined mortality in really extreme temperatures. Therefore, the number of premature deaths caused by less extreme temperatures is not included in the study.”
*
In other words, they’re gearing up for another, “It’s worse than we thought!”
I’m sure help with this will be along very quickly. This is getting ridiculous. Models coming up with a number is not data. Seriously, does the entire population have to rise up in anger for this to end? I know these alarmists can’t let go – and this is probably the closest they’ll get for a while to global domination (so I DO understand it) – but have they no sense of self-preservation? Do we have to prize power from their cold dead fingers? Really?!

Surfer Dave

I like the way they neatly cut out the other side of the situation by saying that even though the winters are milder, the “global warming” causes more intense cold and so winter mortality is up to!
Clearly that had a preconceived “answer” and have constructed their “research” to confirm it. I remember a British study from a few years ago that said that under a warmer climate there would be increased mortality in summer but the reduction in winter mortality was greater and the net result was fewer deaths overall from extreme temperatures

Alan Robertson

Compare this model output with the known tens of thousands of deaths in Great Britain which are attributed to attempts to mitigate climate change.

Niels

Why use GISS Temp? KNMI Climate Explorer is much better, and the full (non blended) Stockholm series from 1756-2011 is found here: http://climexp.knmi.nl/ecatemp.cgi?id=someone@somewhere&WMO=10&STATION=STOCKHOLM&extraargs=
Stockholm is NOT a representative station for Sweden. The variability in temperature in Stockholm is different from the stations in the north (eg. Haparanda) and the much more, humid and mild maritime influenced climate in the southwest of the country (eg. Gothenburg).

oldseadog

A thermometer moved to a metal cage outside an upstairs window in 1875?
In other words, you can disregard all readings from that one.

LdB

Perhaps we should give these climate pseudo-scientists a copy of Richard Feynman’s cargo cult speech to read (http://neurotheory.columbia.edu/~ken/cargo_cult.html)
Then get them to repeat the Manta “Correlation does not imply causation”
Seriously if this is the level Climate sciences has dropped to then it isn’t a science it’s a cult.
I have no problem if the pseudo-science whack jobs that wrote the paper used claims like
– “Given the statistical correlation we suggest there may be a link”
– “There is a strong indication that there may be a link”
– “We have a theory that there is a link between … ”
But no these pseudo-science whack jobs framed there paper to this question:
We aim to answer a key question; the extent to which mortality due to temperature extremes in Stockholm, Sweden during 1980–2009 can be attributed to climate change that has occurred since our reference period (1900–1929).
So where are the autopsy reports?
I can give you viable answers for the Correlation and just taking topical media stories of late
– People are drinking far more high sugar drinks
– People are eating a lot more McDonalds and there are more McDonalds stores
– People are stressed and working longer in summer because of the GFC
I am sure we could make a list of thousands if we really wanted to.
The whole point to Richard Feynman’s speech was to remind scientists they have an obligation to science integrity which these climate pseudo-scientists fail.

gopal panicker

life expectancy at birth in my home state of Kerala, India…is in the high seventies now…its much warmer than Sweden…i wonder why all the people are not dropping dead from the heat.

DirkH

Politically correct pseudoscience from the EU.
The rent seekers who get a lavish wage to occupy seats in formerly scientific institutions plunder the public purse and contribute to the downfall of Scandinavia.
It was a nice place when I visited Stockholm 14 years ago. Since that time the place has gone to hell. Looks like they’re bent on accelerating.

Gareth Phillips

Lord I could cringe. We on the warmist side do our best to spread the word that there is a problem in how we treat our environment and that humans are effecting climate change, and we are continually undermined by idiotic studies like this. Are you sure these guys are not working for the skeptic side of the climate debate?

Jimbo

The increased temperatures caused by ongoing climate change in Stockholm, Sweden between 1980 and 2009 caused 300 more premature deaths than if the temperature increase did not take place.

Are 300 extra deaths over almost 30 year statistically significant? Why did they choose 1900 to 1929? What if they chose 1910 to 1939?
When it’s warm during summer people are more likely to go out, drink alcohol and get into problems and sometimes meet their maker. As the world has warmed Sweden’s suicide rate has been declining, therefore global warming means fewer Swedish suicides? Hey, we are all allowed to speculate.

In Sweden as a whole, it would mean about 1,500 more premature deaths, according to a study from researchers at Umeå University…

Did it mean 1,500 more premature deaths in Sweden as a whole?
Grrrrrrr.

Magnus C

The official temperature record from Stockholm can be found here:
http://www.smhi.se/klimatdata/meteorologi/temperatur/1.2847
The warm years are about as warm now as they were in the 1930-1940 period.

The climate is the same as it was before. There hasn’t been any deaths — none — because of the phantom climate change.
And by the way, I’ve previously commented here for us skeptics to branch out and bring the argument to mainstream and science sites. And I specifically called out phys.org as a site for us to join and be heard.
Guess what? Now Michael Mann is getting irked by skeptical comments on phys,org, and is clearly trying to get phys.org to join the likes of the LA Times in censoring skeptics.
M Mann tweeted: Wow–the comment thread on this @physorg_com #climatechange piece sure smells like #Koch: http://phys.org/news/2013-10-people-dont-high-climate.html
Interesting, MMann has picked on a thread that atypically does have more skeptics than warmists, but usually it’s the opposite. Now I say join the fight at phys.org and elsewhere. Mann is aware of the “damage” we are doing, so he is making a cowardly squawk. If they go ahead and admit that they cannot meet us one on one in argument, and instead employ Gestapo censorship tactics to silence the opposing point of view, then we’ve won, and we she should make a lot of noise about it. And there’s reason to continue to highlight the LA Times decision to silence skeptics. Ultimately, these type of censorship decisions will boomerang, as the public at large will realize the abhorrent hypocrisy of the supposed free but leftist press, and even more of a spotlight will be put on the astonishingly weak case presented by the fear mongering Chicken Littles.

Pethefin

The SMHI has three stations in Stockholm but I could not yet find any information on them before 1961, whereafter the data is available here:
http://www.smhi.se/klimatdata/meteorologi/2.1102
unfortunately this service seems to be available on in Swedish. You can download either daily or monthly data (in the parameter window “dygnsvis” = daily). The station you are looking at seems to be this:
Klimatnummer: 9821
WMO-nummer: 2485
Latitud: 59.34 grader (dec)
Longitud: 18.06 grader (dec)
RakX: 6582250 m
RakY: 1627960 m
Nuv. stationshöjd: 44 m (meaning current station height)
I’ll look deeper into this when I have time…

Another Gareth

“One wonders what the site looked like in 1929 and if the weather station was in the same location.”
On the overhead view there is an open space to the North East of the site. According to this web page (and having used google to translate it) that open space had buildings on it in 1928. The page has an old photo and a more recently taken one showing the difference.
The building with a rotunda to the north of the site is Stockholm Public Library which was opened in 1928. Additional buildings were added to the library in the 30s and 50s.
The observatory and weather station are at the top of a hill. With the changes in buildings and open space around the bottom of the hill would this change the conditions at the top?

Lena Krantz

The data comes from a single station, in the “Observatiorielunden”. Here is the best site. You can download the entire series. Go to “Download” on the right side.
http://www.smhi.se/klimatdata/meteorologi/temperatur/1.2847

Lena Krantz

Sorry, that would be go to “Ladda ner” on the right side.

N_C

Here you can see the city evolve by comparison of historical maps. The observatory is found in the green of the upper left corner of the map.
http://www.stockholmskallan.se/Jamfor-kartor/

petermue

And a graph of storks vs birth rate also shows a correlation.
Turns out there’s also a correlation between number of pirates and global temperature.
Seems like just another desperate call for MORE FUNDS!

Nik

I did not see any reference to the overall death rate of Sweden. That should be available in the official national statistics and would be the clearest indicator of “extra” deaths.
Most alarming is that these people will be unleashed on the world armed with PhDs.

Greg

For me , one of the most striking features of the GISS Stockholm is the 1939-1944 dip.
Is that a measure of the the local UHI effect in the city?
Swedan was a neutral country in WWII but was presumably still hit the stanglehold the war had on energy supplies.

wayne

Oh my god, there are people that are actually going to discuss this paper, analyze it.
The very maximum in Stockholm on their own charts in the dead of summer is near ≈27°C (≈80°F) and they are speaking of having “heat waves”, “extremely hot periods”, and more people assumed dying from a one or so Celsius increase over a century, from that? That 80°F, or their maximum summer temperature, is what I call the perfect comfortable temperature and I wish it was that year round.
I’m floored. I’m amazed. I’m shocked that anyone would do anything but immediately ridicule it and toss that peer-reviewed paper in the trash where it belongs along with the Nature journal that publishes such trash.
So they didn’t even check to find out what was causing the additional deaths, huh? Maybe for one portion crime.
Maybe since their median mid-summer temperature is 15°C (59°F) I would guess one fraction of the increase in deaths is people actually enjoying the abnormal summer warmth, drownings, boating accidents, motorcycle accidents, mountain climbing, etc, you know, taking risks instead of staying inside where it is warm and safe. Look at the dangerous things we do today compared to 80 years ago when it gets warm. We do drive now too, fast. Did they take this into account? Doubt it but it is pay-walled as usual and this paper is simply unadulterated propaganda as usual. I’ve got to save this one for the best perfect example.

Anthony
Have you tried http://rimfrost.no/ for Stockholm temperature?
See the graph here: http://www.sportsys.nu/klima/data/hovedsteder/stockholm.gif
Regards, Agust.

These researchers didn’t read the study of Keatinge e.a. which showed that cold related mortality is about 10 times stronger than heat related mortality. Moreover, the heat related extra mortality is compensated with a reduction in mortality in the months after the heat wave, but that is not the case for a cold snap. Thus the heat related mortality is mostly from people that would have died anyway a few weeks to a few months later:
http://www.bmj.com/content/321/7262/670 for Europe
and
http://aje.oxfordjournals.org/content/155/1/80.abstract for the USA

Jimbo

Is that a tarmac road next to the weather station?
Is it just possible that they looked at other periods to compare? Is it possible that when they looked they could not find what they were looking for and shifted for their preferred period? Is it possible they began their study looking or the global warming increased death link? Perish the thought, I am 100% confident whey did none of the above. / HEAVY SARC.

Morgan in Sweden

I happen to live in Stockholm and Observatorielunden (As seen in the picture above) is the classic site and there are some really old records from this site, but it has been moved several times in the past. I have a report done by Moberg about the temperature records from this site. It is a lot of guesswork. This is from the report:
“During 1756-1875 the thermometer was hung in the free air outside a north-facing
window on the second floor of the old astronomical observatory building in
Stockholm. No detailed description is available on this site.
During 1876-1960 the thermometer was placed outside a north-facing window
on the first floor of the old astronomical observatory building in Stockholm.
A window-screeen was in use since 1878.
During 1961- summer 2006 the thermometer was placed in a SMHI-screen
(Stevenson-type screen) about ten metres north-east of the former position.
Since summer 2006, a platinum resistance thermometer in a modern cylindrical
screen close to the SMHI-screen replaced the mercury thermometer in the
SMHI-screen.”
In modern time the Stockholm temperature is reported from Stockholm-Bromma airport, not Observatorielunden. BTW Stockholm-Bromma Airport did open in 1930 and that might be the reason why there is a change in 1930.
The clame is of course preposterous. There are very few days each year in Stockholm when the temperature reaches 30 degree C. In 2013 there were none. Above 25 is also rare, a few days each year, this summer maybe 5 days might have been less.

I spent a very pleasant interlude in Stockholm during the summer of 1999 in which the temperature reached 34 celsius. It rated as a heat wave for Sweden but, compared to real heat waves in my home town of Perth, Western Australia, it was still quite pleasant. I find it difficult to conceive how such conditions could cause mortalities amongst Swedish residents, especially as they show evident delight in heading off to places like the Mediterranean coast and roasting themselves to a very red state. Ruligt!

H.R.

I don’t see where they tested for the effects on climate due to the deaths in Stockholm. That’s part of my explanation for the pause in warming. All those deaths due to CO2 mitigation policies and their costs means fewer humans which means less ‘A’ in AGW. The heat isn’t hiding in the oceans. It’s being buried in the ground.
They got cause and effect reversed.

Réaumur

Alan Robertson says:
October 24, 2013 at 1:04 am
Compare this model output with the known tens of thousands of deaths in Great Britain which are attributed to attempts to mitigate climate change.

I’d like to see that data. Can you cite a reference?

Greg

Gareth Phillips says:
October 24, 2013 at 1:37 am
Lord I could cringe. We on the warmist side do our best to spread the word that there is a problem in how we treat our environment and that humans are effecting climate change, and we are continually undermined by idiotic studies like this. Are you sure these guys are not working for the skeptic side of the climate debate?
Yeah, I smell #Koch funding this university. Someone ought to make Mickey Mann aware of this.
Sadly this sort of BS “study” has become the norm in reent years. It is now an international industry. With it’s own lobby influence on government.
The net result of the alramism is the new UK govt. deal with Areava/EDF which will DOUBLE the price of nuclear pwered generation in Britain.
The “strike price” agreed by the govt. is about twice the going rate.
The inflation lined, return on investment that this guarantees for Areva is 10% per… every year, for the 35 ( then extented..) year life of the installation. That’s equivalent to a SIXTEEN FOLD payback over the full period.
In an economic context where even the high rates of interest payed on home mortgage loans is around 2% we can wonder how they can accept a deal giving 10% p.a. profits.

Alan the Brit

This study seem to happily sit beside those like the second hand smoke study done here in the UK a few years back, which concluded that premature deaths were increasing, by including those who were in their 80s!!!!! My suggestion? This study, like all the other model studies, should be cut into little A5 rectangles, neatly bundled together, have a hole punched in the top left-hand corner, a string threaded through said hole, & be hung on a nail in the smallest room in the lab building! Just my opinion. When will these guys remember that we’re not all as stupid as they are, extrapolate at your peril, correlation does not necessarily equal causation, & the first rule of toxicology is the poison is in the dosage (modern medicine is based upon it)! What do they teach in universities today? 😉

Greg

Morgan in Sweden: “In modern time the Stockholm temperature is reported from Stockholm-Bromma airport, not Observatorielunden. BTW Stockholm-Bromma Airport did open in 1930 and that might be the reason why there is a change in 1930.”
Good work. That look like the station swap. GISS would presumably select the longest continuous record and tack in the earlier data for previous periods.
Since the study is not looking at REAL deaths , the whole thing is a farce anyway.

I wonder what changes have occurred in life expectancy in the intervening period? Could it have something to do with more aged people dying? Did they do look at the ages of the people dying?

Jquip

Not terribly interested in this one. If their model is bad enough, then life at the equator must be suicide. More likely is that it’s based on an expectation of people in less warm areas getting caught out in a hot room without an air conditioner. Similar things have happened a few years back in France (Power outage + heat wave, IIRC) and there were validated morality bumps from heat strokes. But the juxtaposition of ‘Swedish Bikini Team’ and ‘heat stroke’ just aren’t stroking my credibility meter. And I highly doubt they looked at heat stroke stats is Sweden. Or even that more that 2 guys in a runaway sauna suffer such a fate yearly.

Bloke down the pub

Also, for some reason, GISS can’t seem to get data updated for Stockholm past 1994, even though the station continues to produce data.
Sweden has a reputation for opposing the use of torture. Perhaps they refuse to hand over the data on moral grounds?

Ken Hall

Was there any allowance made for the increase in population between the two arbitrary study periods?

thingadonta

So the average T has gone up, causing more modelled deaths, plus cold periods have increased, causing more deaths.
So wonderful, when one can use averages to fit one’s case, and then depart from averages where desired, to fit one’s case. But everything must fit the case!.
Where do these idiots come from?

Ken Hall

Bloke down the pub… “Sweden has a reputation for opposing the use of torture. Perhaps they refuse to hand over the data on moral grounds?”
Brilliant!

I suppose getting data on the weather station advances knowledge and helps future researchers understand the quality of temperature measurements of one station. Anything past a loud guffaw is too much effort for this paper. They give Ph. D.’s for this kind of junk science? “Climate change” is a nothing phrase that seems to have many, varied and mysterious meanings. How does one define a death as “premature”? It would seem that any death short of execution for particularly heinous murder could be classified as premature. I got two things out of this posting: a good laugh at the state of “climate science” and LdB’s link to the Feynman “Cargo Cult” paper.

William Astley

The warmists are trying to solve a health problem that does not exist. The warmists should take on health problems that do exist.
Refined Sugar Consumption Trends in Past 300 Years:
• In 1700, the average person consumed about 4 pounds of sugar per year.
• In 1800, the average person consumed about 18 pounds of sugar per year.
• In 1900, individual consumption had risen to 90 pounds of sugar per year.
• In 2009, more than 50 percent Americans consume 1/2 pound of sugar per day, which is 180 pounds of sugar per year.
In 1890, obesity rate in the US for white males, age group 50’s only, were 3.4%. In 1975, the obesity rate in the US of all population was 15%. In 2009, 32% of Americans are obese. In 1893, there were fewer than 3 diabetes per 100,000 people in US. Today, there are 8,000 diabetes per 100,000 people in US. Due to increased consumption of sugar particularly among young minority adults the incidence of diabetes is expected to increase from 1 in 10 to 1 in 3. Type 2 diabetes once a disease of middle age, now 30% of all new cases are in adolescences due to consumption of sugary drinks and fatty foods.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20368739
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22129639
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23482247
Here is another health problem the warmists could take on. Almost 50% of Americans are severely Vitamin D deficient, particularly Blacks and Latinos. For roughly $0.05/day this problem can be resolved with Vitamin D and calcium supplements.
http://www.grassrootshealth.org/events/seminars.php
The research results predict that 75% of deaths from all common cancers could be prevented with adequate intake of vitamin D and calcium.
http://www.ucsd.tv/search-details.aspx?showID=16940
In a new study, researchers at the UCSD School of Medicine and Moores Cancer Center used a complex computer prediction model to determine that the intake of vitamin D3 and calcium would prevent 58,000 new cases of breast cancer and 49,000 new cases of colorectal cancer annually in the US and Canada. The researchers’ model also predicted that 75% of deaths from these cancers could be prevented with adequate intake of vitamin D3 and calcium. Join Dr. Cedric Garland, lead researcher on the study, as he discusses the implications of these findings and the proposed actions. (#16940)
http://www.ucsd.tv/search-details.aspx?showID=15773

Coldlynx

Stockholm old Observatory was without any tree in the surroundings in the old days.
In Swedish with old pictures:
http://sv.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholms_gamla_observatorium
Pictures of today:
http://genius-loci.se/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Axels-bild1.jpg

“Furthermore, we saw that even though the winters have become milder, extremely cold periods occurred more often, which also contributed to a small increase in mortality during the winter.”
This is called having your cake and eating it!

Erny72

Every summer hordes of Swedish tennis supporters descend upon Melbourne for the Australian Open and despite temperatures well into the 30s, I don’t recall hearing of any deaths attributed to the high temperature. Maybe Tennis Australia will have to consider the possibility of air conditioning the Rod Laver arena to cater for thermally challenged Swedish tennis supporters, in exchange the Swedish government can pay for the thin air offset credits (going cheap right now in the EUssr carbon market).
Now I live in Norway, a little further North than Stockholm and next to the North Sea so my reference may be a bit skewed here (for a start Stavanger’s weather is influenced by the gulf stream, which Stockholm misses out on) but summer temperatures here rarely approach 30C, even with worse than we thought gullible warming, so one would have to say this group’s claim is drawing a rather long bow (that increasing summer maximum temperatures from twenty something to twenty something plus a couple of decimals is actually going to stress humans to the point of premature death).
Maybe, if the modelling isn’t completely bogus, an alternative conclusion might be that the pussification of European society has managed to weaken the population’s physical stamina in addition to weakening everything else?

Patrick

“Ken Hall says:
October 24, 2013 at 3:40 am”
I’d say no. Just as in Australia where bush fires are now the “worst ever in recoded history” (Meh! Not even close), I wonder how many people lived in fire prone areas back in the 1850’s? In any case, it’s modelled “data”. Not even carp!
I have been debating this for years in Aus and I truly despair at the number of people who fully, hook, line and sinker, believe this computer modelled output as actual observed fact. Sad reflection on the human race, apparently the most intelligent creature on this rock!

Speed

The population of Stockholm in 2000 was 750,348 and in 2010, 847,073 so lets call that an average of 800,000 over the decade.
The crude death rate in Sweden over that period was around ten per thousand so in the period 2000 to 2010 about 8,000 Stockholmians (?) died per year.
The paper claims to detect about 300 excess deaths over the 30 years from 1980 to 2009 or about ten per year. This means that their method was able to detect an increase in deaths per year of 0.125%. Powerful statistics.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Sweden#Vital_statistics_since_1900
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm#Demographics

Jimbo

If Swedes drop like flies during a ‘warm’ day (30C) then why do they holiday in warmer climes in excess of 30C? Do Swedes sweat? Human beings are tropical animals. What is wrong with these people? Where I am it’s 35C and I am already feeling dizzy. a;nw5;oin;izvn l;zme………………….. 🙂
Publish or perish. CAGW is well funded. Researchers have mortgages too.

Andrew

Scandinavians sit in saunas at 80-100C then jump into icy water. But a 27C day kills them. Yep, sounds plausible.
Wonder if the statistics dept records deaths by calendar date? Might be able to verify actual deaths against actual temp in Stockholm. Should be obvious if they’re dropping off on hot days.

Morgan in Sweden

And here is the report for Stockholm 1756-2005.
http://www.smhi.se/polopoly_fs/1.17736!webbNr27_eng_ver.pdf
This is the “short” version of the scientific report made for the public.

Eliza

Qudos to SG This type of info is crucial for future trials as his records of USA temp tampering
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2013/10/24/latest-from-the-arctic-data-tampering-department/

DDP

If there is no cause of death attached, i’m putting them all them all down to food poisoning from bad BBQ food..
Seriously, cause of death really is quite important. Stockholm is also one of the fastest growing cities in Europe in terms of population, so it’s hardly surprising that the number is bigger than 100 years ago (population increase of over 500K since 1900). Another junk study.

Håkan B

The station in 2011
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:SMHI_Observatoriekullen_2011.jpg
Part of the chart showing mean temperature for februari and july since 1756
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Observatoriet_v%C3%A4derkammer_2013a.jpg
Also worth to notice is that Stockholms new obsevatory at Saltsjöbaden was finished in june 1931.