From the soon to be a Climate Crock of the Week department, Barry Woods writes to me in an email:
One of the insights in the climategate emails was perhaps how poisonous Michael Mann’s involvement was, for the niche area of the paleo science community (ego due to IPCC and Hockey Stick)?
This tweet from earlier this morning (now deleted, only a text version survives -Anthony) shows the immediate labeling of “denier” for another scientist who disagrees with his paleo work.
Michael E. Mann @MichaelEMann
Closet #climatechange #denier Rob Wilson, comes out of the closet big time: http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2013/10/21/wilson-on-millennial-temperature-reconstructions.html … #BadScience #DisingenuousBehavior
Shortly afterwards, Mann got into a long and somewhat huffy discussion with Tamsin Edwards over that labeling, here’s the opening salvo:
Also in the feed earlier this morning, (though I can’t find it now) was a Tweet from Mann backing down saying he’d withhold judgment on Rob Wilson until he confirmed those words, suggesting that Andrew Montford (Bishop Hill) had misinterpreted Wilson’s words..
That Tweet apparently has disappeared too. (A WUWT commenter found it, see below, but the original “denier” tweet is still missing -A) I wasn’t going to bother with this article until Dr. Mann started disappearing his own words.
Awful blog piece (http://t.co/61oFMFD3Ho) may well have misrepresented Rob Wilson's views. I suspend judgment, pending his disavowal of it..
— Dr. Michael E. Mann (@MichaelEMann) October 21, 2013
Woods continues:
[About the same time] Rob Wilson, had just publicly confirmed (in comments at Bishop Hill) that he thought and had publicly told students, public, etc Mann’s recent work was a ‘crock of shit’… (his words)
“Lastly, the “crock of xxxx” statement was focussed entirely on recent work By Michael Mann w.r.t. hypothesised missing rings in tree-ring records (a whole bunch of papers listed below).
Although a rather flippant statement, I stand by it and Mann is well aware of my criticisms (privately and through the peer reviewed literature) of his recent work.
Rob”
in the comments
Here it is in full:
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Greetings.
Although I vetted Andrew’s post, I want to clarify that my 2 hour lecture was, I hope, a critical look at all of the northern hemispheric reconstructions of past temperature to date. It was not focussed entirely on Michael Mann’s work. I described each of the major studies and tried to highlight both their strengths and weaknesses – they all have some useful information but it is important to understand the limitations of the studies as well. Of course Mann’s work was mentioned as several of his papers have been so prominent over the last 15 years but I actually spent substantially more time taking apart the D’Arrigo et al. (2006) study on which I did much of the analysis.
This was a session where I wanted the students to critically look at the different studies and specifically address what we can learn from them and how the science can move on over the next decade. Such large scale reconstructions are critically important for understanding the controls on large climate variability, but as yet, due to great uncertainties and large differences in reconstructed amplitude, they are not yet very useful at constraining modelled estimates of future temperature change.
Bar some personal comments, much of what I said is published (see papers below) and is in the public domain.
Lastly, the “crock of xxxx” statement was focussed entirely on recent work By Michael Mann w.r.t. hypothesised missing rings in tree-ring records (a whole bunch of papers listed below). Although a rather flippant statement, I stand by it and Mann is well aware of my criticisms (privately and through the peer reviewed literature) of his recent work.
Rob
I hope all the PDF links below.
NH RELATED PAPERS
Edwards, T.L., Crucifix, M. and Harrison, S.P., 2007. Using the past to constrain the future: how the palaeorecord can improve estimates of global warming. Progress in Physical Geography 31 (5), 481-500.
http://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/~rjsw/papers/Edwardsetal2007.pdf
D’Arrigo, R., Wilson, R. and Jacoby, G. 2006. On the long-term context for late 20th century warming. Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 111, D03103, doi:10.1029/2005JD006352
http://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/~rjsw/all%20pdfs/DArrigoetal2006a.pdf
D Frank, D., J. Esper, E. Zorita, R. Wilson. (2010). A noodle, hockey stick, and spaghetti plate: a perspective on high resolution paleoclimatology. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change. doi: 10.1002/wcc.53.
http://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/~rjsw/all%20pdfs/Franketal2010.pdf
Trieste 2008 Paleoclimate Uncertainties Workshop, Final Report.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/reports/trieste2008/trieste2008final.pdf
Esper J, Frank DC, Wilson RJS (2004) Climate reconstructions – low frequency ambition and high frequency ratification. EOS 85, 113, 120.
http://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/~rjsw/all%20pdfs/Esperetal2004.pdf
Esper J, Wilson RJS, Frank DC, Moberg A, Wanner H, Luterbacher J (2005) Climate: past ranges and future changes. Quaternary Science Reviews 24, 2164-2166.
http://www.geo.uni-mainz.de/Dateien/Esper_2005_QSR.pdf
MISSING TREE-RINGS AND MAJOR VOLCANIC EVENTS
Mann et al. 2012. Underestimation of Volcanic Cooling in Tree-Ring Based Reconstructions of Hemispheric Temperatures, Nature Geoscience, 5, 202-205.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/public_html/shared/articles/MFRNatureGeosci12.pdf
Anchukaitis, K. et al. (2012). Tree rings and volcanic cooling. Nature Geoscience. 5: 836–837. doi:10.1038/ngeo1645
http://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/~rjsw/all%20pdfs/Anchukaitisetal2012.pdf
Mann et al. (2013). Discrepancies between the modeled and proxy-reconstructed response to volcanic forcing over the past millennium: Implications and possible mechanisms. JGR. 118, 14, p. 7617-7627.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/public_html/Mann/articles/articles/MRSTF-JGRInPress.pdf
Esper J et al (2013) Testing the hypothesis of post-volcanic missing rings in temperature sensitive dendrochronological data. Dendrochronologia. 31 (3): 216-222.
http://www.blogs.uni-mainz.de/fb09climatology/files/2012/03/Esper_2013_Den.pdf
Esper J et al (2013) European summer temperature response to annually dated volcanic eruptions over the past nine centuries. Bulletin of Volcanology 75, 736, doi: 10.1007/s00445-013-0736-z.
http://www.blogs.uni-mainz.de/fb09climatology/files/2012/03/Esper_2013_BullVol.pdf
St. George et al. (2013). The rarity of absent growth rings in Northern Hemisphere forests
outside the American Southwest. Geophysical Research Letters 40, doi:10.1002/grl.50743
http://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/~rjsw/all%20pdfs/Stgeorge2013.pdf
D’Arrigo, et al. (2013). Volcanic cooling signal in tree-ring temperature reconstructions for the past millennium, Journal of Geophysical Research, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50692
http://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/~rjsw/all%20pdfs/D’Arrigoetal2013.pdf
Rob Wilson ==================================================================
It seems that Rob Wilson has some serious basis for the claim, and he’s sticking by it.
Ross McKitrick sums it up pretty well in a comment:
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Mann’s tweet just reveals openly what has long been his working assumption. To Mann, a “skeptic” is anyone who doesn’t accept his work uncritically, and a “denier” is anyone who actually disagrees with him.
Ross McKitrick ==================================================================
This is Rob Wilson:
Rob Wilson Earth and Environmental Sciences – Senior Lecturer
School of Geography and Geosciences
Irvine Building
St Andrews
KY16 9AL
United Kingdom
It seems he is well qualified to spot paleo-crocks:
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A tree-ring reconstruction of East Anglian (UK) hydroclimate variability over the last millennium
Cooper, R. J., Melvin, T. M., Tyers, I., Wilson, R. J. S. & Briffa, K. R. Feb 2013 In : Climate Dynamics. 40, 3-4, p. 1019-1039
Article
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Contrasting water-uptake and growth responses to drought in co-occurring riparian tree species
Singer, M. B., Stella, J., Piegay, H., Dufour, S., Wilson, R. & Johnstone, L. 2013 In : Ecohydrology. 6, 3, p. 402Article
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Orbital forcing of tree-ring data
Esper, J., Frank, D. C., Timonen, M., Zorita, E., Wilson, R., Luterbacher, J., Holzkämper, S., Fischer, N., Wagner, S., Nievergelt, D., Verstege, A. & Büntgen, U. Dec 2012 In : Nature Climate Change. 2, 12, p. 862-866
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Update: In case anyone doubts the “poisonous” nature of the rhetoric Dr. Mann uses, I’ll point out what he has begun labeling an Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, who wanted to look at Mann’s UVA emails under FOIA.
Conservative @RTDNEWS refuses to endorse #Cooch for #VAGov, citing "divisive agenda..that was unbecoming in an AG" http://t.co/ggCl4RbNSz
— Dr. Michael E. Mann (@MichaelEMann) October 20, 2013
The definition of the slang word “cooch” is:
Source: http://onlineslangdictionary.com/meaning-definition-of/cooch
What a terrible misogynistic label to apply to somebody. You’d think with the recent sexual harassment scandal over Scientific American’s Bora Zivkovic and his actions, Dr. Mann would be a bit more reserved in such nasty labeling.
My advice to Dr. Mann: When you’ve tweeted yourself into a hole, stop tweeting.
The next book on Climate Science will be the “Rise and Fall of Mann”
Mikey seems to go in to free fall when ever some one disses the hockey stick. Fancy he’s under some pressure…wonder what’s causing that??
@Scottish Sceptic says: October 21, 2013 at 1:00 pm
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Agreed on Rob Wilson. I exchanged a few emails with him a while back after another appearance by him at the Bish, and found him friendly, informative and open-minded. Unlike the increasingly hysterical Mann,
Michael E. Mann @MichaelEMann
Closet #climatechange #denier Rob Wilson, comes out of the closet big time: http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2013/10/21/wilson-on-millennial-temperature-reconstructions.html … #BadScience #DisingenuousBehavior
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Hash tagging “BadScience and Disingenous Behavior” you got some neck Mikey,
Seems like Rob Wilson would make an excellent expert witness in the lawsuits involving Mann.
A number of UK scientists were unimpressed with Dr Mann’s tone..
Tamsin Edwards @flimsin
@MichaelEMann And if it’s the tone you don’t like, address that rather than call him denier?
Michael E. Mann @MichaelEMann
@flimsin Tamsin, I don’t need to be lectured on “tone” by you, of all people. Uninterested in a profile-raising twitter debate w/ you.
2:20 PM – 21 Oct 13
Reply to @MichaelEMann @flimsin
Tamsin Edwards @flimsin 6h
@MichaelEMann “of all people”? I was interested in hearing which points you disagreed with and how you classified “denier”.
Tamsin Edwards @flimsin 6h
@MichaelEMann & I think it’s important to show scientists discussing technical points & sci comm in public forum.
Tamsin Edwards @flimsin 6h
@MichaelEMann But if you don’t fancy having that conversation and/or see it as me self-promoting I will sign off, cheers.
O. Bothe @geschichtenpost 6h
@MichaelEMann Sorry, but the ‘denier’-tweet was (at least) inappropriate and the profile-raising one not much better.
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later on.. Michael Mann moderated his tone towards Tamsin Edwards considerably.. (I guess because other scientists, UK in the main, supported Dr Edwards, (Dr Doug Mcneall is at the Met Office, nice chap, had lunch with Doug at the Met Office)
Doug Mcneall
@MichaelEMann 1) I also agree that use of “denier” in general is inappropriate (if not always unjustified),
Dr Doug McNeall @dougmcneall
@MichaelEMann 2) @flimsin’s article was in good faith, and actually at least partially represents the opinions of a number of scientists.
Michael E. Mann
@MichaelEMann
@dougmcneall I disagree w/ that, as do many climate change communicators
Mark Brandon @icey_mark
@dougmcneall @flimsin depressing. Really depressing. I think that is what one calls a “drive by”?
This tweet from another UK academic (a while back) I concur with, and I believe that very many UK scientists are just like Dr Edwards, and as I imagine are most USA scientists, they just never get any media attention:
“If most climate scientists were like Tamsin, there’d be hardly any sceptics” @etzpcm
http://www.bris.ac.uk/geography/people/tamsin-l-edwards/overview.html
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But the important issue here, putting personalities to one side) is their is considerable disagreement (openly) in the community about aspects of Mann’s work, which I do not think we would have seen a couple of years ago..
What has changed.
Rob Wilson comments were originally made in a 2 hour lecture at St Andrews University.
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2013/10/21/wilson-on-millennial-temperature-reconstructions.html
Though we have ample evidence of ‘poor communication’ skills now of some scientists in the media.Wilson’s and Mann’s work is what should be discussed, .
I guess the alarmists are all feeling the heat now, but… that’s what they wanted, wasn’t it?
On July 6 Michael Mann retweeted Peter SInclair, “Ridley also repeats the tired “temp leads carbon” crock”
Mann has invited the treatment that he receives.
With the tweet deletions, I wonder if Penn State is getting involved, since his tweets are a refection on them. Dr Mann is required to honour Penn State policies such as:
“They respect and defend the free inquiry of their associates. In the exchange of criticism and ideas they show due respect for the opinions of others.”
” the faculty member agrees at all times to be accurate, to exercise appropriate restraint, to show respect for the opinions of others”
Of course, Cooch could be short for Coochie, first used in the late 1890s for Hoochy Coochie Man: meaning a person, a man, who either produced or enjoyed watching sexually provocative dancing shows by black females. Muddy Waters recorded the first song called (I’m Your) Hoochy Coochie Man in 1954. Maybe Mann has great expectations or just enjoys being a climate cooch?
Where is the outrage from his friends, peers, colleagues and employers? Their silence continues to allow such unprofessional conduct to undermine every working scientist. When every scientitst’s reputation is finally trashed and the public demands that most research is unafordable (coming sooner rather than later!) they will have no one to blame but themselves. I hope they all end up having to work for a living.
Whether we like it or not, Mann is almost as important as promoting the sceptic cause as Anthony.
Nasty little men mouthing off rarely impress anyone but themselves.
Newton was a pretty odd bird. One of his endearing traits was to write a groundbreaking paper which he then put away. Years later, when someone else independently came up with the same ideas, a very angry Newton would pull his paper out of storage and accuse them of stealing his ideas.
And, yes, Newton was prone to epic temper tantrums.
Tamsin Edwards: “you’re calling Rob a denier? ….That’s pretty strong… ”
Hey Tamsin, instead of
“that’s pretty strong” try
“that’s totally unacceptable behavior!!!!!!!”
Mann gets another free pass and Tamsin is hardly any better.
EternalOptimist says:
October 21, 2013 at 1:52 pm
Scientists are human, often exceptionally so. Newton & Einstein both behaved badly on occasion (well, often, in Sir Isaac’s case), but they had both actually achieved great things, unlike the forger Mann.
As noted on this blog, Einstein took umbrage at a paper of his being peer-reviewed. It turned out the critical reviewer was correct. Newton was frequently at war with someone, often more than one person at a time, notably Leibniz, Hooke & Flamsteed.
The term “nasty” is way too clean for Mann.
And he’s the best enemy the Warmistas could ever want.
Wow.
I am put in mind of some old advice.
“Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake”
I believe the name of that mistake just might be Mann
Gavin schmidt’s tweet on the matter
https://twitter.com/climateofgavin/status/392384557523025920
How rude, uncouth, and socially unacceptable.
Well, I never have had any interest in tweeting or following tweets and still don’t, but I think I’m going to get onto twitter just so I can follow Dr. Edwards. It’d be nice if she had more followers than Dr. Mann.
Mann = Queeg//Caine Mutiny//strawberries//ball bearings.
But Bogie was a far better actor.
Rud Istvan
Just to be clear, Rob Wilson vetted Bishop Hill’s post before it was published, Anthony has re-blogged a conversation that took place there
Gras Albert @ur momisugly Lucia’s
I think the term “Asshat” fit Michael Mann well.
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=asshat
Dr Mann has not figured out that shoddy work will follow him like a bad dream, all his life. The best he can do is admit it and move on. He cannot move on without some sort of admission of his crappy work.
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I never thought I’d be defending Mann but in this tweet I’m not so sure he meant it as the slang definition. (I’d never heard it before.)
I knew American preacher that went to England and spoke to a group of people. He wanted to tell them to “Get off your ass” but chose instead what he thought was a more dignified wording. He told them to “Get off your fanny.” In England at the time “fanny” meant the same as “cooch”.
What kind of serious scientist has a twitter feed? Is it really possible to communicate on climate science in 140 characters or less?
Disagree that Mann’s work is a crock of shit. One expects the contents of a crock to be fresh. A more appropriate container for Mann’s Oeuvre would be a bucket.