The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center has updated their monthly graph set and it is becoming even more clear that we are past solar max, and that solar max has been a dud. “The slump” continues not only in sunspot activity, but also other metrics. And, tellingly, Dr. David Hathaway has now aligned his once way too high solar prediction with that of WUWT’s resident solar expert, Dr. Leif Svalgaard. Of course, at this point, I’m not sure “prediction” is the right word for Hathaway’s update.
The SSN count remains low:
Note the divergence between the model prediction in red, and the actual values.
The 10.7cm radio flux continues slumpy:
The Ap geomagnetic index remains low, unchanged, and indicates a tepid solar magnetic dynamo. We’ve had well over 6 years now (and about to be seven) of a lower than expected Ap index.
From the WUWT Solar reference page, Dr Leif Svalgaard has this plot comparing the current cycle 24 with recent solar cycles. The prediction is that solar max via sunspot count will peak in late 2013/early 2014:
But, another important indicator, Solar Polar Fields from Mt. Wilson and Wilcox Combined -1966 to Present show that the fields have flipped (crossed the zero line) indicating solar max has indeed happened.
Image from Dr. Leif Svalgaard – Click the pic to view at source.
In other news, Dr. David Hathaway has updated his prediction page on 9/5/13, and suggests solar max may have already occurred. He says:
The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 66 in the Summer of 2013. The smoothed sunspot number has already reached 67 (in February 2012) due to the strong peak in late 2011 so the official maximum will be at least this high. The smoothed sunspot number has been flat over the last four months. We are currently over four years into Cycle 24. The current predicted and observed size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle since Cycle 14 which had a maximum of 64.2 in February of 1906.
![ssn_predict_l[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/ssn_predict_l1.gif)
You can watch this video that shows 5 years of cycle 24 predictions from Hathaway, as they shrink from 2005 to 2010. Solar cycle 24 predictions were higher then, and exceeded the SSN max for cycle 23.
Dr. Svalgaard’s prediction in 2005 (with Lund) was for a solar cycle 24 max SSN of 75, and was totally against the consensus for solar cycle 24 predictions of the time. It looks like that might not even be reached. From his briefing then:
Source: http://www.leif.org/research/Cycle%2024%20Prediction%20Lund.pdf
We live in interesting times.
More at the WUWT Solar reference page.
Salvatore Del Prete says:
September 16, 2013 at 10:16 am
The climate cools for the globe as a whole by -.8c if these average solar parameters are realized between Jan.01,2015-Dec.31 2019.
Now if these solar parameter averages are realized and the temperature trend is flat or up I am wrong, very easy to falsify. I would say this is clear,specific and gives a specific outcome as a result.Very black and white and straight forward.
AVERAGE SOLAR PARAMETERS NEEDED. Did not change a thing.
solar flux average 90 or lower.
solar wind average 350 km/sec or lower.
ap index average 5.0 or lower, 98+% of the time.
solar irradiance average off .015% or lower.
e 10.7 flux average sub 100.
cosmic ray count 6500 per minute or greater.
These values were likely attained or exceeded during the Maunder Minimum according to many studies. MOST of which for example show solar irradiance to be off by .3 to .6% during the Maunder Minimum.
.
Some will argue the sun is not as variable as that, as well as the sun does not control the climate through solar changes and the associated secondary effects, but this is what makes a ball game two sides in opposition.
Time will tell.
Leif and Willis make me think more if anything. I rather talk to those who do not agree with me then those that do.
They know their stuff and I am glad they question everything.
Questions out of the arguments topic: Are there charts, depicting the area and position of coronal holes like they do sunspot counts? Is there a filament count? I know we keep track of solar wind, but is there something similar to a butterfly chart for them? Secondly.. if you know that the suns activity level has an effect on our magnetosphere, which we are just now beginning to observe in depth, how wouldn’t that also impact on the heliosphere increasing or decreasing susceptibility to that messy universe’s chaos?
/ramble on … I agree with Lief, the sun has been blasting right along as usual. Slight variations added to our wobble might explain some of the climate variation here on Earth locally but I still challenge that we can measure to a hundredth of a degree across the Entire globe. Best article this year for me was when the scientists figured out we didn’t need a CH or sunspot to get beaned by the sun, the second was the discovery of an energy transfer through our atmosphere caused by a solar storm…. baby steps ya know.
sometimes when I read you folks arguing.. I think you are so focused on one thing as causality you forget that a lot of what we experience are the so called “perfect storms” or combinations of events like solar, volcano, meteor strikes to get extremes. We know very little about the forces outside our little solar bubble and less about our own planet. . But Voyager finally made it out..YAY! It is frustrating that can still only observe our Earth for the most part, a satellite strip at a time. Energy transfers, atmosphere disturbance are.. mostly lost to our observations. Apparently the folks who believe we have any control over our climate don’t realize we are essentially a rock rolling around a star in a very chaotic universe that could extinct us in a heart beat.. I guess feeling that small and insignificant bothers them:)
Things that fall out of the bell curve are thrown out. Average and homogenized doesn’t mean a damn thing to the folks in the extremes. I’m not a scientist, Im a farmer. I bet you could tell. I don’t care if its .08c hotter, I want to know when first and last frost will be and when it will rain:P ( I watch the ocean for that info btw) But in my short life I’ve noticed the roughly 30-40 year cycles.. and then mostly because it was chicken littled as a tragedy for humanity, and caused by humanity.. too hot.. too cold .. too hot.. I guess the goldy locks zone isn’t always just right, add a wobble and a wiggle and a tilt.. and were off:) Best thing we could do for ‘the greater good’ is get some of us off this vulnerable rock before we become the dinosaurs:) After all, your either evolving.. or you are extinct:) /ramble off
Ulric Lyons:
I see that at September 16, 2013 at 6:34 am you have decided to talk to me again. Well done. Unfortunately, having stopped running, you have started digging again.
And your digging is an attempt to evade answer to my post at September 16, 2013 at 5:46 am
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/09/13/like-the-pause-in-surface-temperatures-the-slump-in-solar-activity-continues/#comment-1418435
Firstly, let me get out of the way some of your irrelevant drivel.
You say
All? You accuse me of duplicity! That is pure psychological projection.
I challenge you to find any example of my demanding Corbyn’s method should be revealed. You will find several examples of my saying he has a perfect right to keep secret the method he uses for his commercial forecasting activities. And if you doubt that then ask Piers Corbyn.
My post you have answered stressed that nobody is interested in your methods.
I AND OTHERS WANT TO KNOW YOUR SUCCESS AND FAILURE RATES.
Then you say to me
No, your brass neck at making such an assertion is laughable. You ran away because my comments were too pointed for you to face them.
Then you make the absolutely ridiculous assertion
NO! To fully convince that you forecast e.g. a very cold March 2013, you need to show what you forecast verbatim together with evidence of when and where you did forecast it.
But ‘one swallow does not make a Spring’. It is your record of success andfailure which is wanted. As I said in the conclusion of my post which you pretend to answer
Richard
Leif gave his wonderful predictions for solar flux values and ap index values on Aug 06,2013 for the rest of ths year ,next year and year 2015.
They are 120,120,115 for solar flux and 10,9,12 for ap.
Again time will tell,I can’t argue wrong or right because it would be speculation. The same goes for him when he tries to tear my argument apart.
But he made the prediction and I expect he will stand by it ,as I will with my prediction. Right or wrong. No spin.No changes.
The sun has been in an extreme unusual pattern since late 2005, and it is going to become more so not less so going forward. Enough said.
Leif , give us your prediction for the number of class m flairs and x flairs for the rest of this year?
Simple and for the very near future.
richardscourtney says:
“So long as Ulric refuses to present information on his success rate…”
I did here:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/09/13/like-the-pause-in-surface-temperatures-the-slump-in-solar-activity-continues/#comment-1417042
richardscourtney says:
“All? You accuse me of duplicity! That is pure psychological projection.
I challenge you to find any example of my demanding Corbyn’s method should be revealed.”
Well I do apologise for including you in with at least Leif on that matter.
Ulric Lyons:
I see your post at September 16, 2013 at 11:32 am adopts the HenryP method of evasion; i.e.
pretend you have answered a question when you have not.
I refer you to the immediate response of Leif Svalgaard to the evasion you have linked. It is at September 14, 2013 at 10:27 am
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/09/13/like-the-pause-in-surface-temperatures-the-slump-in-solar-activity-continues/#comment-1417051
The request for your information on your success rate has been pursued since then. Your proper response is still awaited.
Richard
richardscourtney says:
“To fully convince that you forecast e.g. a very cold March 2013, you need to show what you forecast verbatim together with evidence of when and where you did forecast it.”
Apart from hundreds of people in my community and extended family, it was only recorded in writing as a private message to Ray Ennis. It went like this… bbrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr, which is code for totally freeze your butt off, he said how long, and I replied at least 3 weeks, coming in harder from the 2nd week. It had to be private as an ex associate was plagiarising my forecasts.
Ulric Lyons:
re your post at September 16, 2013 at 11:47 am.
A casual statement to friends or relatives is not an official forecast that can be verified.
I merely queried the evidence for existence of a forecast which you claimed to have made. If a coded message to a friend is the “forecast” you chose to cite then I suspect I would not be impressed by your other “forecasts”.
Richard
richardscourtney says:
“If a coded message to a friend is the “forecast” you chose to cite then I suspect I would not be impressed by your other “forecasts”.”
So it’s all about the table manners then in your book, I’m glad I didn’t stay for dinner.
Ulric Lyons:
Your post at September 16, 2013 at 12:09 pm says in total
That answer is surreal.
Post your success and failure rate and do TRY to stop making a fool of yourself.
Richard
henry@ulric
let us give it up here?
it is no use arguing with people who are only interested in extracting, not adding information
I suppose it is their business
as is adding comments by creating multiple personalities “to comment”:
Anyway, what is your thinking on the function of the planets in weather patterns?
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2013/04/29/the-climate-is-changing/
sorry
it seems
bloggs.24.com
is dead for some time
I don’t know until when
rikgheysens says:
September 16, 2013 at 8:23 am
– Regarding your graph “WSO Dipole, Phase within year”, do the blue squares show the axial dipole strength D = (N-S) from 2003.5 to 2005.7? The dipole appears stable.
No, they show the strength of the North and the South separately [there are two sets of blue squares].
– What’s the meaning of grading of the horizontal abscissa (phase within year: 0, 0.2, 0.4, …)?
0 means January 1st, 0.5 means July 1st, 1 means December 31st.
– May I assume that these data are based on the data of the rightmost column of http://wso.stanford.edu/Polar.html?
No, they are based on the columns marked N and S respectively, and are averages, so the squares for phase 0.5 [in the middle of the graph] are averages of 1st July 2003, July 2004, and July 2005.
Henry Galt says:
September 16, 2013 at 10:34 am
I have been pestering Ulric to publish for a couple of years now. It’s not up to us when he goes public.
If he doesn’t have the table and the explanation I requested his work is not publishable. Perhaps that is why he has not ‘gone public’.
pkatt says:
September 16, 2013 at 10:59 am
Are there charts, depicting the area and position of coronal holes like they do sunspot counts? Is there a filament count?
Yes, Google is your friend.
Salvatore Del Prete says:
September 16, 2013 at 11:25 am
Leif , give us your prediction for the number of class m flairs and x flairs for the rest of this year?
I have no idea. My guess would be close to zero for the X flares.
Leif Svalgaard says:
“If he doesn’t have the table and the explanation I requested his work is not publishable. Perhaps that is why he has not ‘gone public’.”
I have more than enough hindcasts to demonstrate my findings, I don’t need to discuss forecasts to publish my work.
I’m Len R. Holliday, the Lead Forecaster with firsthandweather.com. I can assure you that Ulric Lyons is everything he says he is and more. His long-term weather forecast have been beyond belief. I first got to know Mr. Lyons through my LinkedIn contacts. Some of my peers pointed out his very accurate forecast ability which caused me to take an interest in him. Ulric sent me back dated forecast and now I have known the man well over a year and have studied his work and so has my son, Matthew Holliday who lives in Norman, Oklahoma at the University of Oklahoma. A good friend of mine at MIT, Juda Cohen who has peer reviewed weather forecast has also been made aware of Ulric Lyons long-term forecast ability. I am in the process as we speak of doing a paper on his work. The bottom line is this. Whatever Mr. Lyons tells you, you can take it to the bank! Thank You For Your Time And Concern! Len R. Holliday(Retired Stockbroker and Lead Forecaster for Firsthand Weather) Mr. Holliday holds an advanced degree in the field of Mathematics as well as Meteorology.
Ulric Lyons says:
September 16, 2013 at 1:41 pm
I have more than enough hindcasts to demonstrate my findings, I don’t need to discuss forecasts to publish my work.
Hindcasts are merely curve fitting [unless you have a physical explanation and numerical model], so [as in all science] the validation lies in prediction and forecasts.
Ulric Lyons:
I know you won’t believe me, but I tell you that I am writing this post in a sincere attempt to help you.
In your post at September 16, 2013 at 1:41 pm you say
You certainly could publish that somewhere; e.g. on the web or in a local newspaper.
But if you want to publish a report of a forecasting method in a peer reviewed journal then you will be required to include an analysis of the forecasting skill possessed by the method.
Richard
Leif Svalgaard says:
“If he doesn’t have the table and the explanation I requested..”
But you already declared that; “Showing ‘some examples’ doesn’t cut it.”, so for all I know if I get as far as presenting you a proper assessment of say the last years worth of forecasts, you may turn around and say; “Showing ‘some examples’ doesn’t cut it.”, show us your secret sauce before we are convinced that it’s not just luck. You have such a prejudice against the whole thing that I don’t trust you an inch. And with the way you twisted what I had said, and made out that I had forecast extreme temperatures for EVERY WEEK, is inexcusable, as it caused Willis to accuse me of the same, which makes you a false witness, I don’t deal with people like that.
richardscourtney says:
“I know you won’t believe me..”
Correct, so I don’t why you even bothered.
Ulric Lyons says:
September 16, 2013 at 2:23 pm
richardscourtney says:
“I know you won’t believe me..”
Correct, so I don’t know why you even bothered.