Study predicts the sun is headed for a Dalton-like solar minimum around 2050

Method uses the Ap geomagnetic index, which has been in a slump since October 2005: The Hockey Schtick tips us to a paper published today in Advances in Space Research predicts that if the current lull in solar activity “endures in the 21st century the Sun shall enter a Dalton-like grand minimum. It was a…

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December solar activity in a big slump

The December data from NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center is in, and it looks more and more like the peak of solar cycle 24 has been reached, and that we are now past it. Even with documented problems like “sunspot count inflation” the sunspot count for December is quite low: Note the large difference between…

Counting Sunspots and Sunspot Inflation

Guest post by Dr. Leif Svalgaard The official sunspot number is issued by SIDC in Brussels http://sidc.be/sunspot-data/ . The [relative] sunspot number was introduced by Rudolf Wolf http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rudolf_Wolf  in the middle of the 19th century. He called it the ‘relative’ number because it is rather like an index instead of the actual number of spots…

Solar Activity – Past, Present, Future

Essay/paper by Dr. Leif Svalgaard Abstract As our civilization depends increasingly on space-borne assets and on a delicate and vulnerable earth-bound infrastructure, solar activity and its potential impact becomes of increasing importance and relevance. In his famous paper on the Maunder Minimum, Eddy (1976) introduced the notion that the Sun is a variable star on…

NASA June 2012 Solar Cycle 24 Prediction

Compiled by Joe D’aleo WeatherBell via NASA MSFC The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 60 in the Spring of 2013. We are currently over three years into Cycle 24. The current predicted size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle in about 100 years. The prediction method…

Solar cycle update for April – sun still slumping

Got a bit sidetracked earlier in the month, this is overdue for an update. Earlier we reported that Hathaway had updated his solar cycle prediction saying “…the predicted size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle in about 100 years. “. April solar index numbers seem to support this prediction. All three main solar indexes tracked…