From Duke University and the “I was sure those tree rings were linear indicators” department, comes this news: Climate Change May Speed Up Forests’ Life Cycles
DURHAM, N.C. – Many climate studies have predicted that tree species will respond to global warming by migrating via seed dispersal to cooler climates. But a new study of 65 different species in 31 eastern states finds evidence of a different, unexpected response.
Nearly 80 percent of the species aren’t yet shifting their geographic distributions to higher latitudes. Instead, they’re staying in place – but speeding up their life cycles.
The Duke University-led study, published online Wednesday in the peer-reviewed journal Global Change Biology, is the first to show that a changing climate may have dual impacts on forests. It adds to a growing body of evidence, including a 2011 study by the same Duke team, that climate-driven migration is occurring much more slowly than predicted, and most plant species may not be able to migrate fast enough to stay one step ahead of rising temperatures.
“Our analysis reveals no consistent, large-scale northward migration is taking place. Instead, most trees are responding through faster turnover – meaning they are staying in place but speeding up their life cycles in response to longer growing seasons and higher temperatures,” said James S. Clark, H.L. Blomquist Professor of Environment at Duke’s Nicholas School of the Environment.
Anticipating the impacts of this unexpected change on U.S. forests is an important issue for forest managers and for the nation as a whole, Clark said. It will have far-reaching consequences for biodiversity and carbon storage.
To test whether trees are migrating northward, having faster turnover, or both, the scientists went through decades of data on 65 dominant tree species in the 31 eastern states, compiled by the USDA Forest Service’s Forest Inventory and Analysis program. They used computer models to analyze the temperature and precipitation requirements of the trees at different life stages, and also considered factors like reproductive dependence of young and adult trees.
“The patterns we were able to see from this massive study are consistent with forests having faster turnover, where young trees tend to be more abundant than adult trees in warm, wet climates. This pattern is what we would expect to see if populations speed up their life cycle in warming climates,” said lead author Kai Zhu, a doctoral student of Clark’s at Duke. “This is a first sign of climate change impacts, before we see large-scale migrations. It gives a very different picture of how trees are responding to climate change.”
The fact that most trees are not yet showing signs of migration “should increase awareness that there is a significant lag time in how tree species are responding to the changing climate,” Zhu said.
The study was funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF), and Zhu was supported by an NSF Doctoral Dissertation Improvement Grant.
Christopher W. Woodall, research forester at the U.S. Forest Service’s Northern Research Station in St. Paul, Minn., Souparno Ghosh, a postdoctoral researcher in Duke’s Department of Statistical Science, and Alan E. Gelfand, J.B. Duke Professor of Statistics and Decision Sciences in Duke’s Department of Statistical Science, were co-authors of the study. Clark also holds an appointment as professor in the Department of Statistical Science.
Paper:
“Dual Impacts of Climate Change: Forest Migration and Turnover through Life History”
Kai Zhu, Christopher W. Woodall, Souparno Ghosh, Alan E. Gelfand, James S. Clark
Published Sept. 11, 2013, in Global Change Biology
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12382
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.12382/abstract
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Steven Mosher says:
Psst. It is warming.
1. BS. !!! It is NOT warming. It has be stationary for about 17 years.
2. And THANK GOODNESS it has generally warmed since the LIA.
The world be in a right pickle if it hadn’t !!!
Manuel Graça on September 12, 2013 at 1:52 am
Durão Barroso, one of the most corrupt persons in Europe …
” meaning they are staying in place but speeding up their life cycles in response to longer growing seasons and higher temperatures,”
Interpretation: They are growing faster, bigger and better.
Sheesh
C02 chart in link, Plants love the stuff up to 2,000 ppm. Plants and trees are growing faster in last 50 years and that must be making the gardeners happy but not the land lords.
http://www.hydrofarm.com/resources/articles/co2_enrichment.php
The intriguing question that arises from this research is: Are trees are smarter than “climate scientists?”
“Nearly 80 percent of the species aren’t yet shifting their geographic distributions to higher latitudes. Instead, they’re staying in place – but speeding up their life cycles.”
What was really startling, the study indicated, is that instead of migrating to the temporary safety of higher altitudes and latitudes before a final extinction caused by a universally warming world, many tree species have apparently chosen to make a “last stand” right where they stood!
The study also makes clear why it is so important to hug a tree whenever we can. For The Sacred Warming Models have revealed to us an even higher Treenobleness which demands our respect and support, not to forget that Social Justice has its own Categorical Imperative requiring our reciprocal action in order to help our new found brothers, sisters, and transgenders, in our common struggle to maintain the Equality and Fairness of a stable, unchanging Universe against the encroachment and Final Destruction as engineered by the Koch Bros and other Capitalist Imperialists and their rampaging Tropics.
Or as YAD06 has resolutely communicated to its forest children via its Holy Rings, “Hear me, my small trees. From where the Sun now sets I will move no more Forever.”
Wandering Willows, Nomadic Nutmegs, Eloping Elms, Marathon Maples, Running Redwoods, Pedestrian Pecans, Trekking Tamaracks, Skip- To- My- Lou Spruces…
It’s too bad plants don’t have more genes to compensate for their lack of mobility.
Oh wait…
@njsnowfan says:
September 12, 2013 at 4:27 pm
C02 chart in link, Plants love the stuff up to 2,000 ppm. Plants and trees are growing faster in last 50 years and that must be making the gardeners happy but not the land lords.
http://www.hydrofarm.com/resources/articles/co2_enrichment.php
One nitpick from the very informative link, in the interests of counteracting the “CO2 is a pollutant/toxin” meme:
“Above 2,000 PPM, CO2 starts to become toxic to plants and above 4,000 PPM it becomes toxic to people.”
That’s wrong about the toxicity of CO2 to people. 4,000 ppm = 0.4% vs 0.04% = 400 ppm. atmospheric CO2. I’ve read that on submarines CO2 concentrations up to 10,000 ppm = 1% are deemed safe. Regardless, CO2 concentration in our own bodies = 56,000 ppm, and exhaled CO2 contains about 40,000 ppm., decreased due to the mixing of exhaled with atmospheric air in the airway conduit tubes. The only theoretical problem of having a 4,000 ppm atmosphere instead of a 400 ppm atmosphere, would be that it only in effect slightly decreases the concentration gradient of exhaled air vs atmospheric air. So there might have to be an automatic and slight increase in either rate or depth of breathing in order to get rid of the body’s CO2 load, produced as a result of biochemical respiration. One experiment reported in an old physiology book of mine, showed that increasing inspired air content to CO2 = 1% = 10,000 ppm resulted in only a 1/7 increase in the depth of breathing, without affecting the rate of breathing at all. The adjustment occurs automatically in order to maintain a normal body pH.
“The fact that most trees are not yet showing signs of migration …”
… is a relief. If boatloads of trees start sailing our way, our politicians are going to go totally crazy.
OldWeirdHarold says: “Wait till the Ents wake up. then Canada’s in for it.”
It could get ugly…
Estimates of rates of tree migration northward during the (genuinely) rapid warming in the early Holocene exceed 100m/yr and some estimates exceed 200m/yr. This is for maple and beech.
I have rescanned the Hubert Lamb’s northern tree limits map so it’s a bit easier to analyse than the old hand-scan:
http://www.sturmsoft.com/climate/forest_grassland_limits.png
Trees like all the plants I have had to deal with are generally far more sensitive to available soil moisture than temperature. That said, the heuristic in climatology before it went off the rails was warmer = wetter (ceteris paribus). Trees that suffer a shortage of moisture early in the growing season tend to ignore adequate moisture levels mid-season.
ferd berple said @ur momisugly September 12, 2013 at 6:36 am
Thanks Ferd; yer blood’s worth bottlin’ 🙂 I received the Suckling & Mitchell graphics from Hans Erren these many long years ago. I’ve been looking through the wrong pubs…
The Suckling and Mitchell paper can be downloaded from here for $37 🙁
http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/02723646.2000.10642697#.UjKk6canqT4
It’s only three times what I paid for an offprint of Lamb’s Climate, vegetation,and forest limits in early civilized times paper on paper. Why do recycled electrons cost so much more than paper and postage from the other end of the planet?
I they could only develop Triffids then they would know which way they were migrating and would only need to follow them (at a safe distance) to see how far they go North or South.
Loved this comment by…
mike fowle says:
September 12, 2013 at 5:07 am
I like the idea of trees “migrating”. So Birnam Wood does come to Dunsinane.
James Bull
kadaka (KD Knoebel) says: September 12, 2013 at 5:44 am
“As one who has been amazed at how many maple tree “helicopter” seed-things can accumulate in assorted vehicle nooks and crannies, I am certain maple tree seeds have been regularly transported 30 miles further northward for at least the past hundred years, most likely far longer. Likewise acorns and pine cones, which fall into truck and wagon beds. Don’t forget fruit trees, with discarded apple and pear cores, peach pits, etc.”
Edible tree seeds that are not quickly covered over by dirt or other biomass do not last long in nature because they are quickly eaten by birds and other small animals.
And any seed that does manage to sprout new growth has a perilous first five (5) years of survival that is contingent upon temperature and rainfall ….. and especially the fact that their young growth of leaves and stems are a sought after “delicacy” by most every herbivore.
Squirrels are a great “migrator” for nut trees because they will gather a nut from under the tree and then bury that nut up to 50+ yards away from the tree and then retrieve it in time of need. But they never find all that they bury.
And about those Sugar Maple “helicopter” seeds …………
“Well before the coming of the first European settlers, Canada’s aboriginal peoples had discovered the food properties of maple sap, which they gathered every spring. According to many historians, the maple leaf began to serve as a Canadian symbol as early as 1700.” http://www.pch.gc.ca/eng/1363626184104/1363626227047
Cheers,
The ranting and delusional denialist
And ps: Tree growth occurs in the springtime from say March to June. A warm, wet spring pretty much insures good to great growth. Summertime is for producing sugars that are stored in the roots for next year’s spring growth cycle.
http://www.treesofnorthamerica.net/trees/Alpine+Fir
How ever will they adapt? Oh no’s – Think of the dendrogeny! <– children of trees 🙂