Guest essay by Paul Homewood
For those of us living in the UK, the glorious summer has been much in the news. We seem to have spent half of it listening to the BBC telling us about temperature records that might be broken, and been bombarded with heatwave warnings from the NHS.
But how exceptional has it been? The Met Office have now published their figures, and the answer seems to be “not very”.
Temperatures
UK mean temperature was 15.16C, making it the 9th warmest summer on records going back to 1910.
Perhaps significantly though, maximum temperatures only ranked 11th. The 19.71C recorded this year was well down on the 1976 figure of 20.96C, which still remains by far the highest number on record. This certainly raises the question, just how much the UK temperature record is influenced by UHI, as the minimum temperature graph (and particularly the trend line) suggests.
Central England Temperature Series
As the map indicates, the largest anomalies were in Scotland and Northern Ireland, and the smallest in the South East. The effect of this on the CET series is quite startling, as the summer only ranked 44th warmest, going back to 1659. There were many warmer years prior to 1900. Indeed, while the hottest summer was 1976, the next hottest was 1826!
5-Year averages remain close to the long term, (1660-2013), mean.
Finally, it is worth pointing out that the YTD CET is still running about 0.9C below the 1981-2010 mean, and the year as a whole is on target to be the second coldest since 1996.
Precipitation
Much of the summer has been dominated by high pressure systems, so it is no surprise that rainfall has been low. Nevertheless, it is only the 13th driest summer since 1910, and the trend in recent years remains one of wetter summers. Indeed, rainfall in recent summers has been at similar levels to the period of 1910-60, which preceded a much drier interlude culminating in 1995.
Meanwhile YTD rainfall totals are not remarkable.
All in all, I suppose you could say it has been just another British summer!
References
All data from the UK Met Office
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries
Annie said @ur momisugly September 9, 2013 at 9:27 am
My wife enjoyed her visit very much; it was only the second time she had visited UKLand. She was most impressed that Anne, sorry about the dropped “e”, knew quite a lot about Franklin and our wooden boat school. Apologies for calling her priceless: “Of inestimable worth; invaluable.” I take that back as I would hate to offend you.
I gave up watching BBCNews weather forecasts this summer when one particular bonehead presenter kept referring to a ‘one day heatwave’ every half hour update. According to the Met Office there is no official definition of a heatwave, so I guess they can just make it up as you go along and be as alarmist as they want with pointless health warnings to scare folks.
When I lived in Lincoln, we had water restrictions in 1965. We had arrived from Cyprus in Feb 1963 and I never got out of my sheepskin coat that summer, until I climatized. But it was a lovely summer. Came to Sydney in Nov 1965, and they had water restrictions here. So lap up the sunshine but usually when it is hot more storms develop. It is warm here too in Oz, but I have known bad storms to arrive and frost in late Sept and October. So let’s keep our fingers crossed.
I spent 33 days in Britain from the 25th April, the thawing out process is nearly complete.
In 2012, after a dry spring, the UK had a hosepipe ban and the Met Office’s £33M computer predicted a dry summer. It turned out to be one of the wettest summers in living memory and the wettest June on record.
On 18th June this year, Prof Stephen Belcher (Met Office Hadley Centre) predicted a decade of wet summers. “The 20-year cycle began in 2007, with six of the past seven summers being wet, and this trend will continue” he said. “Wet summers are more likely for the next 5 to 10 years. This is due to Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation – and climate change may be intensifying the cycle. I am excited about this research, it’s a new thing that we really didn’t know about.” Dr Adam Scaife (Met Office Hadley Centre) also quoted “In 2012, like the previous few summers, warm North Atlantic conditions brought milder temperatures and rain. The same pre-conditioning is there again this year. This summer will be slightly wetter than average.”
Well, Met Office, here are the embarrassing statistics for this years wet summer in the UK for East Midlands/South Lincolnshire. . . .
From 18th June to 31st August 2013 (75 days) . . . .
2 days of heavy rain (23 & 29 July – the latter came with spectacular thunderstorms and hail).
4 days of moderate rain.
18 days with very light showers or fine ‘mizzle’ at some stage – but nothing to worry about.
6 cloudy days, hardly much sun shining through, but DRY.
45 glorious days of complete sunshine with no rain whatsoever.
Summary: 69% dry, 24% very slightly damp, 5% wet, 2% washout.
Footnote 1: UK Businesses rely on Met Office predictions. 2012′s washout summer saw retailers spending precious capital on garden furniture, BBQ food and equipment – which hardly sold. This summer, paddling pools and cooling fans were like gold dust – everywhere was out of stock whilst shops couldn’t shift their stockpiles of umbrellas and raincoats.
Footnote 2: There also has been hardly any breeze throughout this glorious UK summer – so a big kick in the teeth for those with a vested interest in bat-chomping bird-slicing eco crucifixes.
(Above first posted in WUWT ‘Consensus, what consensus?’ Sept 3 2013)
we’re around solar cycle 24 maximum. the summers are expected to be decent for 2012-2015
About 6 weeks of very warm weather and the rest OK or a little dry and cold (around springtime).
My observation: It has been a wonderful year for the butterflies. This implies that UK butterflies evolved for ears like this… they can’t be too uncommon as butterfly numbers have been in decline so the boom is from a low base.
My comment: SHH! Don’t jinx it. Some of us are on holiday now.
GeeJam
On 18th June this year, Prof Stephen Belcher (Met Office Hadley Centre) predicted a decade of wet summers. “The 20-year cycle began in 2007, with six of the past seven summers being wet, and this trend will continue” he said. “Wet summers are more likely for the next 5 to 10 years. This is due to Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation – and climate change may be intensifying the cycle. I am excited about this research, it’s a new thing that we really didn’t know about.
Perhaps he should have read my post in January!!
http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2013/01/07/facts-about-the-amo/
Paul Homewood
Thanks for the link Paul. Agreed, they obviously didn’t read your post. Another good example of, as always, how our tax-payer funded MET Office prefer to have a rough guess on how to create their own savoury tomato and minced beef sauce served on a bed of pasta – without first looking up any tried and proven recipes for spaghetti bolognese whilst also ignoring the advice of a qualified and experienced Italian chef. And if they mess it up, the inedible food is not deducted from our bill.
Similarly (my personal bug-bear), I yearn for a time when our politicians show complete astonishment as they stop, research and learn for themselves just how little atmospheric CO2 there actually is!!
Keep up the good work.
The Pompous Git:
Thank you.
I live on the Northern Tablelands of NSW, very green in New England region, but our temps rarely go above 30 C., and winters are cold, with dramatic drops in temps once the sun goes down. Can reach 10 below in some areas, the higher you live (we are 3,500 ft above sea level) the warmer it is generally as cold and frost flow downwards. (Can be 5C difference) So to make predictions to carte blanch every micro climate area is not accurate. For example my girlfriend lives in the valley only 2 km from me, she will say ‘it’s pouring here’ or ‘ snow did not settle long’ yet higher up we got no rain and snow did settle. Just 2 kms away. Anyway enjoy an Indian summer. Because it will get cool again.
Try the exercise for the UK which originally opened Anthony Watt’s eyes in the US: group temperature records and trends by population density of the counties where the recording stations are located.