Guest essay by Paul Homewood
For those of us living in the UK, the glorious summer has been much in the news. We seem to have spent half of it listening to the BBC telling us about temperature records that might be broken, and been bombarded with heatwave warnings from the NHS.
But how exceptional has it been? The Met Office have now published their figures, and the answer seems to be “not very”.
Temperatures
UK mean temperature was 15.16C, making it the 9th warmest summer on records going back to 1910.
Perhaps significantly though, maximum temperatures only ranked 11th. The 19.71C recorded this year was well down on the 1976 figure of 20.96C, which still remains by far the highest number on record. This certainly raises the question, just how much the UK temperature record is influenced by UHI, as the minimum temperature graph (and particularly the trend line) suggests.
Central England Temperature Series
As the map indicates, the largest anomalies were in Scotland and Northern Ireland, and the smallest in the South East. The effect of this on the CET series is quite startling, as the summer only ranked 44th warmest, going back to 1659. There were many warmer years prior to 1900. Indeed, while the hottest summer was 1976, the next hottest was 1826!
5-Year averages remain close to the long term, (1660-2013), mean.
Finally, it is worth pointing out that the YTD CET is still running about 0.9C below the 1981-2010 mean, and the year as a whole is on target to be the second coldest since 1996.
Precipitation
Much of the summer has been dominated by high pressure systems, so it is no surprise that rainfall has been low. Nevertheless, it is only the 13th driest summer since 1910, and the trend in recent years remains one of wetter summers. Indeed, rainfall in recent summers has been at similar levels to the period of 1910-60, which preceded a much drier interlude culminating in 1995.
Meanwhile YTD rainfall totals are not remarkable.
All in all, I suppose you could say it has been just another British summer!
References
All data from the UK Met Office
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries
Is it only me? Or have the warm-mongers been really quiet for the last few months?
Highest temperature of 34.1 deg C at Heathrow and Northolt on 22nd July – I would be interested to know what effect the local environment (tarmac/aircraft/high volume vehicle movement/buildings etc etc) had on this reading.
Perhaps the MO applied some of their statistical magic to the readings 😉
Jimmy, you will hear a lot more when the next climate jamboree begins in Stockholm. I guess they will now say that global warming not only causes extreme weather but also boring weather.
Interesting. My wife spent four weeks in July in Scotland and England. She reported not getting out of her southern hemisphere winter clothes for the first two weeks. However, the Tasmanian Over 60s St Ayles Skiff team received a silver medal and my wife the personal congratulations of [Princess Anne]. Now isn’t that more interesting than boring old weather? 😉
Looking at the rainfall map, UEA-CRU really have had a local drought (for local climate-change scientists).
After the wash out of last year, anything would seem warmer! The result, outstandingly ordinary weather!
I live in the “micro-climate” of southern Hampshire , the Solent. Our summers until 2006 were pretty much predictable, warm May , unstable and often humid June, warm-to-hot July, variable August and a warm and sunny September. In our area this was much more reliable and warmer than many other parts of the UK. In amongst that were often periods of low pressure for a few days and considerable rain but on average very nice summers….. THEN….. 2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012 …. six summers nothing like any in my lifetime here, colder, wetter and far less sunny. 2013 was much more like the norm before that run of 6 strange summers. So for us here in the South it just felt like summers as they should be…. Other micro-climates in this part of the world ( south Devon, Cherbourg penisular ( France ) and the channel islands ) have experienced much the same.
‘As the map indicates, the largest anomalies were in Scotland and Northern Ireland, and the smallest in the South East. The effect of this on the CET series is quite startling, as the summer only ranked 44th warmest, going back to 1659.’
When was Scotland and Northern Ireland added to the Central England Temperature series? I don’t think they were included in the 1650’s.
It has been a largely pleasant spring and summer in the SE with just enough rain to keep the crops happy. I’m growing tomatoes and peppers and chillies outside but may have to take them indoors before all are ripend.
I do have a feeling (rather than a thought) that these highs are going to persist through the winter and bring in cold airs from the North and East ushering in a colder than average winter much like last year and heralding the collapse in global temperatures I have been expecting for years.
Predict a ‘barbeque summer’ until you get one, eh?
1826 was a corker by all accounts – widespread drought, half of the West Riding or Yorkshire burning, and, in Scotland, heat and thunderstorms. From the Times, June 11, 1826: “The heat still continues excessive, the thermometer has for some time been above 80 in the shade, and during the past week has sometimes been even so high as 86.” That’s for Inverness!
Australian weather reports have been constant crowing about ‘Warmer than average’ and the ‘[insert number here] warmest month on record). It’s sickening, no mention of the global warming stall, merely meaningless local very short term anomalies.
Agree completely with Johnny old boy. I live just outside London so only 80-90 miles apart but identical summers. Was so nice just to have some warm sunshine, nothing exceptional but after the last few years it was great.
Bloke down the Pub
When was Scotland and Northern Ireland added to the Central England Temperature series? I don’t think they were included in the 1650′s.
Sorry, I was a bit ambiguous there. What I meant was that anomalies in England were lower than in the UK as a whole.
Therefore, CET figures were even less exceptional.
“…All in all, I suppose you could say it has been just another British summer!”
Yep – certainly felt that way to me (living in Bedfordshire, UK). We had a some very nice warm weather through most of July/August, but looking out the window this morning I see September is an unsurprising grey, rainy affair (rained for most of this past weekend, too). I certainly feel that despite the BBC’s increasingly desperate attempts to paint the weather (any weather) as ‘unusual’ or ‘record breaking’ the actual experience of it feels anything but to the vast majority of the UK population.
Our British summers have always been a bit schizophrenic; a few days of very weather here, followed by a day of torrential thunderstorms there, etc, It’s not ‘unusual’ and it’s certainly not ‘extreme’ – despite the BBC’s repeated attempts to report it as such. Still, no doubt the CAGW Propaganda Wing of the BBC Department (aka The Met Office) is busy preparing the script in advance of autumnal floods – and, of course, as ‘evidence’ of that all-important ‘weather weirding’ they all seem so enthusiastic about.
Jokers, all. They really should find something better to do with their time (and our money).
I live in south Oxfordshire – just about as far as you can get from the sea in England. We have had a lovely summer and enjoyed the more reliable days of sunshine. We even planned BBQs based on weather forecasts 3 and 4 days out!
I am extremely grateful to have had a summer like the ones that I remember.
Wasn’t this the first summer since the Met Office predicted that our summers would now be cooler and wetter – because of global warming, sorry, climate change, sorry climate disruption?!? Deliciously ironic following previous years repeated, epically wrong, forecasts of BBQ summers and droughts.
If we are supposed to be experiencing global warming, how can places so close to each other (the UK is not that large) have anomalies of +1.5 to 2.0 at one location and -0.5 to 0.5 in another?
Yet only in June the Met Office held a meeting over the UK’s “disappointing” weather over recent years. The Met Office had been interpreted by the media for the UK to expect cooler, wetter summers. Right on cue and lovely summer. The rule of thumb is to expect the very opposite of what the Met Office forecasts.
Just remember the folks for AGW talked of fine grapes and even oranges for the UK. LOL.
Also remember the AGW folks told us to expect more drought in the UK yet 2012 was the wettest since 1910. Just how many times are these people allowed to get it wrong and continue to be rewarded with faster and more expensive GIGO computers?
“Looking at the rainfall map, UEA-CRU really have had a local drought”
Living just across the city from them I would agree – we’ve only had a few short duration showers since end of spring, and the grass is parched! I’ve watched many storms approaching on the Met Office rainfall radar, but they always peter out just before reaching us. Some even seem to split in two and then reform the other side…
As far as temperatures go, I certainly don’t remember the many stifling hot nights we experienced a few years ago. So yes – nothing remarkable.
After last summer’s atrocious weather, this year has seen a return to the sort of summer we wish for and remember. In the 60s, I spent most of the summer lying around an outdoor pool, sandwiches in my duffle bag and my drink sunk to the bottom of the pool to keep cool and would cycle home in time for supper with fingers and toes like shrivelled prunes from so much swimming. I don’t remember many wet or cold days. Last summer, I don’t recall wearing anything less than a t-shirt and jumper and my vegetables were a disaster. We had a fabulous week at the end of March and a bit more in May, but that was it. Dire. So this year has been a welcome change (and my onions are huge).
If you keep saying “BARBEQUE SUMMER!!” over and over every year, eventually you will be right…
I was a believer in global warming about 10 years ago, with just the slightest niggle of doubt in my mind – if temperatures are 0.8°C higher than 100 years ago, how accurate were thermometers back then? My understanding was that only recently have thermometers been reliably accurate to within 0.5°C… and, how can we verify the accuracy of the readings from 100 years ago? Anyhoo, I let that ride. Then I saw Al Gore’s infamous film, and was hooked; we were bad, bad people. I then set about (albeit rather half-heartedly) trying to find how I could have some effect upon humanity’s nastiness. As this required research, I (internet) researched. The first question was “How does CO2, a minor gas in the system, have such a dramatic effect upon the atmosphere’s temperature?” I asked this question on various sites, pro- and anti-, and was surprised by the response. NONE of them could give a satisfactory answer, the anti- sites gave rather poor explanations, but were dismissive; the pro- sites almost immediately became nasty – in some cases, very, very nasty, with advice to self-harm and suicide, as well as the usual ad hom remarks, especially when I questioned their response: “Because it does!”. Obviously, these folk were desperate to get me on-side – NOT! The conclusions I came to were that the alarmist sites do not tolerate anyone who is not totally “on message”. This made me suspicious, so I continued researching, to reach the sort of conclusions that most people on this site agree with – the whole AGW story is a SCAM! The recent UK summers merely reinforced my opinions.
Here in the UK, the Summer of 2013, is being lauded as a great (ie warm, dry and sunny) one, but it was only July and August that were ‘great’. April and May were cold and cheerless, and June wasn’t much better. The reality is that our collective memory of weather events is very short and this gives the alarmists fertile ground to propogate the myth that CAGW is spawning ‘extreme’ weather on a regular basis. We rely on the vigilance of WUWT and similar sceptic sites to demolish these claims as they arise by providing the true facts. Keep up the good work!
Grumpy:
You conclude your post at September 9, 2013 at 3:36 am by saying in parenthesis
Careful. WUWT is an American blog. Americans tend to be prudish and unfamiliar with the British ‘Carry On’ type of humour. Anyway, boasting of one’s personal attributes is unseemly 🙂
Richard