Guest essay by David Archibald
There is now consensus that the Sun has now entered a quiet period. The first paper from the solar physics community predicting the current quiet period was Schatten and Tobiska’s 2003 paper “Solar Activity Heading for a Maunder Minimum?”. To date, Solar Cycle 24 has shown similar maximum SSN amplitudes to that of Solar Cycle 5, the first half of the Dalton Minimum:
Figure 1: Solar Cycle 24 relative to the Dalton Minimum
But what comes beyond that? Predicting the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 was big business in the solar physics community with a total of 75 forecasts. There is only one forecast of the amplitude of Solar Cycle 25 to date. That forecast is Livingstone and Penn’s prediction of a maximum amplitude of seven. The first forecast, by Libby and Pandolfi, of the current quiet period is now over 40 years old. The fact that Libby and Pandolfi’s prediction got the detail of temperature changes to date right gives great credibility to it. Written in 1979, they forecast a warming trend for the rest of the 20th century followed by a cold snap that might well last throughout the first half of the 21st century. Specifically, Dr Libby is quoted by the Los Angeles Times as saying,
“we see a warming trend (by about a quarter of 1 degree Fahrenheit) globally to around the year 2000. And then it will get really cold – if we believe our projections. This has to be tested.” How cold? “Easily one or two degrees,” she replied, “and maybe even three or four degrees.”
The Libby and Pandolfi forecast was based on isotope ratios in tree rings and dates from a time before the corruption of tree ring science.
One commercial consequence of lower solar activity is that satellites will last longer in their orbits. Another is that agricultural production in the mid-latitudes will be affected. One of the most productive agricultural regions on the planet is the Corn Belt of the United States. Modern corn hybrids are tuned around maximizing the yield from the growing conditions experienced in the Corn Belt over the last 30 years with Growing Degree Days (GDD) to maturity ranging from 2200 to 2700. GDD is calculated from the day of planting by adding the maximum and minimum daily temperature in Fahrenheit, dividing by two and then subtracting 50 to produce the result. If the overnight minimum is less than 50°F, 50°F is used. The maximum is capped at 86°F as corn plants don’t grow any faster above that temperature. Daily temperature records for the Corn Belt start about 1900. The following graph shows the accumulation of GDDs for the periods 1901 – 1910 and 2001 – 2010 for Whitestown just northeast of Indianapolis in the southeast end of the Corn Belt:
Figure 2: Cumulative GDD for Whitestown, Indiana 1901 – 1910 and 2001 – 2010
The graph assumes a common planting date of 27th April. The blue lines are the years 1901 – 1910 and the red lines are the years 2001 – 2010. They all stop on the date of first frost. Most of the growing seasons last decade had plenty of heat to get to maturity with up to 1,000 GDD in excess of the requirement at 2,500 GDD. A century before, the margin of safety was far less. Normal first frost for Whitestown is 10th October. A century ago the earliest frost was five weeks before that on 3rd September, 1908. Similarly, in the latter period the earliest date to get to 2,500 GDD was 15th August. In the earlier period the last date to get to 2,500 GDD was almost six weeks later at 28th September.
Farmers can adjust the type of crop they grow to suit their climatic expectations. Yield is directly proportional to GDD though as shown by the following graphic of corn and soybeans:
Figure 3: Yield relative to GDD (CHU) for Corn and Soybeans Source: Andy Bootsma, 2002: Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Eastern Canada
If a farmer plants a 2,200 GDD corn crop in the expectation of a cool or short season and the season turns out to have been capable of growing a 2,500 GDD, then he has foregone about 12% of the value of the later maturing variety. If he plants a 2,500 GDD variety and the season falls short though, most of the value of the crop will be lost. Wheat and barley require about 1,600 GDD and 1,400 GDD respectively. The highest wheat yield in Indiana in 2012 was 74 bushels/acre whereas the highest corn yield was 159 bushels/acre. Another factor in predicting grain output is the ability to switch to winter wheat in which a crop is planted in early September, germinates and then lies dormant under the snow blanket until the following spring.
A study in the 1980s of the effect of lower temperatures on Canadian wheat production found that a 1°C decrease would reduce the frost-free period by 15 days and that a 2°C decrease would not allow the crop to ripen before the first frost. Canadian wheat farmers have assured me though that they could switch to winter wheat and have a higher yield. In Manitoba, for example, the yield might be 71 bushels per acre for winter wheat compared to 51 bushels per acre for spring wheat. Growing winter wheat is riskier than spring wheat in that a hard frost before the first snow could kill the crop.
A further complication in trying to determine what the coming decline in temperature will do to grain production is that the area of the Corn Belt approximates to the region that was scraped flat by the Laurentide ice sheet. After the Wisconsin Glacier receded, the glaciated soils of the Midwest that are primarily north of Interstate 70 were covered with several feet of wind-blown loess deposits that came from the Great Plains that lie east of the Rockies. In Northern Illinois for example, in an area north of I-80, six to eight feet of loess deposits overlie glacier till. These soils are all primarily silt loam, silty clay loam, clay loam and clay. The water holding capacity of these soils are about 2 inches per foot. The counties in the Corn Belt with the highest productivity have deep fertile soils. Most of these soils were covered with prairie grass that over time raised the organic matter levels to between 2% and 5%. The resulting biological activity that developed in these soils made them very productive. These counties are also watered by natural rainfall that results from the Gulf of Mexico Pump. As the weather fronts move from west to east across the Rockies, we have the Great Plains that are mostly arid, but by the time the fronts reach eastern Nebraska, the moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is sucked north by the counter-clockwise flow of air that rotates around the low pressure fronts and drops the rain on the Midwest when it hits the cooler air from the north. Therefore the Corn Belt has the optimum combination of soil type, temperature and moisture. As growing conditions shift south, the soil types won’t be as good.
Friis-Christianson and Lassen theory enables us to predict temperature for a solar cycle if we know the length of the solar cycle preceding it. Thus Solheim et al have been able to predict that the average global temperature over Solar Cycle 24 will be 0.9°C lower than it was over Solar Cycle 23. Polar amplification also plays a part such that Svalbard, for example, in winter will experience a 6°C decline in temperature. Work on temperature records in the northeast United States suggest that the temperature decline in prospect for the Corn Belt is 2.0°C for Solar Cycle 24.
We can cross-check this expectation against modelled historic Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) data. Lean et al produced a reconstruction of TSI back to 1610. That is shown in Figure 4 following. Also shown is Livingstone and Penn’s prediction for Solar Cycle 25 amplitude converted to TSI by scaling against the Maunder Minimum. Shaviv in 2008 found empirically that a 1 watt/m2 change in TSI was associated with (as opposed to cause directly) in a 0.6°C change in global average temperature. A fall in solar activity to levels reached in the Dalton Minimum, as per Lean’s data, would result in a decline of global temperature of 1.2°C, a little more than what Solheim’s group is projecting. Solar Cycle 4, the cycle preceding the Dalton Minimum, was 13.6 years long, about a year longer than Solar Cycle 23. Libby and Pandolfi’s prediction of a temperature decline of up to 4°F translates to 2.2°C. Through TSI, this would require a fall of 3.7 watts/m2 which is greater than the range in Lean’s modelled data for the period since 1610. This may mean that Libby and Pandolfi are correct and Lean’s model needs adjusting.
Figure 4: Projecting the decline in Total Solar Irradiance
Working through the effect on GDDs, a return to TSI conditions of the Dalton Minimum can be expected to reduce US corn production by perhaps 20% to 25%. This equates to the increase in corn production over the last ten years from mandated ethanol. US grain and soybean production of about 500 million tonnes per annum is sufficient to feed 1.2 billion vegetarians. The amine profile of wheat can be approximated by a diet of 70% corn and 30% soybeans, otherwise those things are fed to animals at about a 25% protein conversion efficiency. Corn and soybeans would be the diet of involuntary vegetarianism. The rest of the world does not have the luxury of US agriculture’s latent productivity.
Figure 5: US Corn and Wheat Prices 1784 to 2013
Figure 5 shows the effect of the low temperatures of the Dalton Minimum on corn and wheat prices in the United States. The absolute peak was associated with the eruption of Mt Tambora. Also evident is the period of high and volatile prices associated with the cold temperatures of the mid-19th century.
Figure 6: Major wheat exporting countries
A return to the climatic conditions of the Dalton Minimum is likely to take Russia, Kazakhstan and the European Union out of the export market. The other countries will have some reduction in wheat available for export. Colder is also drier and thus a number of major grain producers such as India and China, currently largely self-sufficient, will experience shortfalls from their requirements.
Figure 6: Imports and exports of grain by continent
Figure 6 above shows net exports of grain by continent with the Arab countries as a separate region. Those countries are the biggest grain importing block on the planet. Soybeans are not included in this graphic. China has become the major soybean importer at 60 million tonnes per annum. In terms of protein content, that equates to about 180 million tonnes of wheat per annum. The Chinese convert those soybeans to animal protein in the form of pig meat.
Countries in the Middle East North Africa (MENA) region have been in the news recently. Further detail on their import dependency is shown in Figure 6 following.
Figure 6: MENA region domestic and imported grain by country
In Figure 6, the population size of each country is shown by the size of the bar. The blue component of the bar shows how much of each country’s grain requirement is grown domestically and the red component denotes the imported share. Countries are shown from west to east as per the map. A proportion of the Egyptian population already suffers from malnutrition. A current wheat prices, it costs about $1 per day to keep someone fed in terms of bulk grain. The oil exporting countries in the graphic can afford to feed their populations, with some countries feeding others as well. Saudi Arabia has been keeping Yemen above water and more recently took on Egypt too.
Figure 7: An animal model of population growth and collapse
All the countries of the MENA region have seen their populations grow to well in excess of their inherent carrying capacity. A combination of deteriorating climate and ongoing world population growth can be reasonably expected to cause a spike in grain prices to levels last seen in the 19th century. It is also possible that sufficient grain may not be available at any price in some regions. Populations models from the animal kingdom provide some guidance as to how events might unfold. A good example is the snowshoe hare and lynx of North America. The snowshoe hare population collapses to less than 10% of its peak on a roughly ten year cycle, followed by the lynx. Taking the example of Egypt, the current population is twice the level that can be supported by its grain production. If the food supply to that country falls below the minimum required to maintain public order, then the distribution system for diesel and fertiliser will break down and domestic grain production would also be affected.
The starving populations of Egyptian cities will fan out into the countryside and consume whatever they can chew which will include the seed grain. That will ensure that domestic grain production will collapse. The population of Egypt might fall to 10% of its carrying capacity which would be 5% of its current level. Any starvation in the MENA region is likely to trigger panic buying by other governments in the region and beyond with consequent effects on established trade patterns.
UPDATE:
The Excel spreadsheet for the Whitestown data used in this essay is here Whitestown-all-years (.xlsx file)
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Salvatore Del Prete says:
September 8, 2013 at 10:53 am
The story is in it’s beginning phase, and we will have to see first how quiet the prolonged solar minimum is, and how long it last.
If these solar parameters become established I expect a substancial cooling.
They are:
solat flux sub 90 sustained, sub 72 more severe.
solar wind sub 350km/sec. sustained, sub 300 km/sec. more severe.
ap index 5.0 or lower 98+% of the time.
cosimc ray count north of 6600 counts per minute sustained.
solar irradiance off .015% or more sustained.
EUV(extreme ultraviolet light) off upwards of 50% sustained.
The above following many years of sub-solar activity in general which commenced in late 2005..
The era of solar data from 1844-present has NO data to show how the climatic system of the earth may act to a prolonged solar minimum and the associated secondary effects with this type of solar action, because their has not been no such occurrence post the Dalton Minimum.
What we have had instead is a more or less active regular 11 year sunspot cycle with lulls and peaks,. This type of solar action in my opinion is not going to make for solar/climate correlations, because the the degree of magnitude change and duration of time of solar actvity was not extreme enough to over come random earthly climatic changes ,such as ENSO,VOLCANIC ACTIVITY ,PDO/AMO etc. and also not strong enough to overcome the inherent negative feedbacks in the earth climatic system.
Anotherwords for the solar /climate correlation to become established to some degree a critical threshold level of solar activity deviation must occur from what it has done prior.
It looks like this deviation in solar actiivty has commenced in year 2005 and should continue for some time which will allow us to see if indeed a solar /climatic relationship does or does not exist.
I think it does when one looks at the two most recent prolonged solar minimum periods, those being the Maunder Minimum and the Dalton Minimum and the response of the climate at those times.
As I write this the solar flux value is sub 100, and this is suppose to be the forecasted maximum of solar cycle 24 according to mainstream scientist.
Willis Eschenbach says:
September 8, 2013 at 10:24 am
I’m gonna have to protest this one:
I’ll join in. It is just as big a mistake to make to assume that the Earth is a one-knob climate system where that knob is (through a causal chain that has not yet been quantitatively, predictively, verified) the sun as it is to assume that the Earth is a one-knob climate system where that knob is (through a causal chain of complex feedbacks that have not yet been quantitatively, predictively, verified) CO_2 concentration in the atmosphere. Indeed, they both could be important knobs. So could other factors we might be including wrong in current oversimplified models or might be neglecting altogether.
Second, I have to say that I personally think that it is very, very unlikely that global average temperature is going to drop 0.9C over SS 24. We’re basically halfway through it, plausibly at its coarse-grained maximum, with no drop in sight. This is a forecast drop of well over 0.1C/year for the rest of SS24, and it would basically remove nearly all of the 20th century warming in only five or six years. I think this is highly implausible, although it would certainly be highly instructive if it were to occur. I’m aware of the FCL papers and their assertions (and have been for years) and attractive as their theory is, Leif at least would (and probably will:-) point out that it is based on solar activity data that underwent at least two fundamental renormalizations over the centuries that create an artificial inflation of late 20th century solar activity compared to the supposed long term mean. With that said, there is little doubt that SS24 will be the lowest in roughly 100 years and I think that he’d agree that SS25 could be (and maybe even “probably” will be) lower still.
Given that we cannot go back and recompute solar activity records, and that proxies tend to be relatively imprecise and average over uncertain intervals of time to boot, I’d have to say that the FCL general hypothesis, supported or not by the Svensmark hypothesis, remains an open question — subject to considerable doubt because of problems with the data but not really disproven either. We simply haven’t had a period of low solar activity in the modern instrumental era, just as we haven’t experienced MUCH of the available phase space of climate drivers in the modern instrumental era, and I at least do not trust global data from before the 60’s or 70’s at the earliest (the satellite era). Arguably we have lousy data on 70% of the Earth’s surface before 2000, let alone 1979 — pre-ARGO.
The one thing that one can correctly state is that the next few years will be an “interesting” time for climate science. The notion that solar state is a primary climate controller will very likely get a serious test if predictions of low solar activity continuing over two or more future cycles prove correct (note the stacking up of the ifs and probabilities and assumptions). However, there is likely to be confounding variation in the highly multivariate inputs elsewhere that may muddy the issue — CO_2 is rising, and the GHE may partially cancel what would otherwise HAVE BEEN a strong fall in temperature. The global decadal oscillations alter the pattern of Hadley cell circulation and hence affect heat transport from the tropics to the poles — anything that concentrates heat near the tropics should tend to overall cool the planet because of the T^4 in the radiative loss equation. The ocean is a complex heat buffering and CO_2 buffering system that is still in the process of being understood and which can either prevent any rise or fall or can slow the time constants of the rise or fall (making that 0.9C over five or six years rather unlikely on this ground alone). The Chinese and Indians may perfect LFTR reactors, start converting to Thorium wholesale (as both countries have lots of it), and reduce particulate emissions/soot, which in turn could modulate arctic melt and (for that matter) alter the rate of CO_2 production significantly given that these are the two most populous countries in the world with almost 1/3 of its total population. Somebody could invent an inexpensive quick-charge storage battery (or other mechanism for storing power) with a significant fraction of the energy density of fuel oil or gasoline, enabling things like Solar to produce cheap(er) energy without the need for bridge generation when the sun does not shine, again permanently altering the economics of energy generation. A supervolcano could erupt or explode, making ALL of our assumptions of “all things being equal” moot. A completely unsuspected, highly nonlinear mechanism for feedback in the climate system could emerge that actually dominates all of the above, so that with the exception of Milankovitch geological timescale variability, the climate is always chaotic to an extent that exceeds the linear response of any of the primary drivers so that even though on short timescales it can look like CO_2 is a sole linear driver, chaotic oscillations can completely invert the climate in spite of it (as it in fact did, back in the Ordovician-Silurian and to lesser extent in many other glacial transitions along the way).
The secular trend for the planet Earth on geological time scales of a hundred million years is serious cooling:
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Phanerozoic_Climate_Change.png
Note well the O-S glacial period — the only ice age that is colder than the present, and one that occurred with CO_2 at 10 to 20 times the level it is today. Note the Eocene:
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:65_Myr_Climate_Change.png
It seems almost certain that CO_2 is not the primary driver of all of these variations in climate, and that whatever IS the primary driver is quite inexorable. The current interglacial is a warm blip, literally, in the Pliestocene glaciation.
So sure, perhaps we are about to return to active glaciation. Perhaps not. Perhaps the sun is the primary driver, or a primary driver of the climate with nonlinearly amplified effects along multiple causal chains. Perhaps not. Perhaps CO_2 really can and will overwhelm all natural variation, given time. Perhaps not. Perhaps the climate sensitivity is large. Perhaps it is small. Perhaps feedback is positive, perhaps it is negative. Perhaps there are other, unknown drivers that dominate all the known drivers, at least when conditions are just right. Maybe not.
The best we can do now with only 34 or so years of halfway decent data on at most half of the globe (and even less halfway decent data that can finally, honestly be said to span the globe) is guess, and none of our guesses should be taken too seriously, including the one above.
rgb
The Pompous Git says: @ur momisugly September 9, 2013 at 12:42 am
Hmmmm… maybe it’s time I rewrote this and brought it into the 21stC…..
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
I only read the introduction so far but we look like we are on the same page. I prefer organic methods first and resort to chemicals if needed.
One comment. You use the word ‘sustainable’ This word like so many before it has been co-oped by the elite to mean something entirely different than what we think it means. I use the words good husbandry instead so my meaning is clear.
‘Sustainability’ now means moving humanity off the land and turning the land over to the Mega-Corporations.
History HACCP and the Food Safety Con-Job is a well researched true history of Modern Industrialization of Farming and well worth the read. HACCP International is a leading food science organisation specialising in the HACCP Food Safety Methodology and its application within the food and related non food industries. and The International HACCP Alliance was developed on March 25, 1994, to provide a uniform program to assure safer meat and poultry products and to provide the World Trade Organization (1995) and OIE and FAO of the United Nations with unified food regulations approved by the IPC. “It is housed within the Department of Animal Science at Texas A&M University.”
F. William Engdahl says WTO/HACCP rules put free-trade of agribusiness above national health concerns. “The IPC was created in 1987 to lobby for the GATT agriculture rules of WTO at the Uruguay GATT talks. The IPC demanded removal of ‘high tariff’ barriers in developing countries, remaining silent on the massive government subsidy to agribusiness in the USA…. The IPC is controlled by US-based agribusiness giants which benefit from the rules they drafted for WTO trade…” John Munsell, Manager, Foundation for Accountability in Regulatory Enforcement also writes about HACCP’S Disconnect From Public Health Concerns These new international regulations have nothing to do with making food safe. They are about forcing family farmers off the land CHEAPLY via fines, bankruptcy and government confiscation. As world population expands, the demand for arable land should soar. At least that’s what George Soros, Lord Rothschild, and other investors believe. The elite are not about to allow family farmers to cash in on the next big boom cycle. We already know that regulations are preferentially enforced thanks to the ‘regulatory capture’ and The Revolving Door Between Gov’t And Big Business
Sustainability and ‘Smart Growth’ are code words for Agenda 21. This is the UN’s position on Land Use Control
You can see the implementation here: Green Practices/Sustainability: Apartments are the core of any sustainability strategy…. the NMHC Sustainability Committee, the Council is advancing industry best practices; working with lawmakers to adopt voluntary and incentive-based energy policy; and developing and promoting standards to help firms market their sustainability quotient.
THIS is the real definition of ‘SUSTAINABILITY’
You can see it at work in the European Union.
“SOUNDS LIKE SCIENCE FICTION…OR SOME CONSPIRACY THEORY…BUT IT ISN’T.
UN Agenda 21/Sustainable Development is the action plan implemented worldwide to inventory and control all land, all water, all minerals, all plants, all animals, all construction, all means of production, all energy, all education, all information, and all human beings in the world. INVENTORY AND CONTROL.”—- Rosa Koire DEMOCRATS AGAINST U. N. AGENDA 21
This is the true threat to our food supply especially with the attitude expressed by the financiers:
And the grain traders
rg batduke,
You are in denial of the climatic response to the last two prolonged solar minimum periods,(Maunder Minimum /Dalton Minimum) and do not accept the concept of thresholds, which require a certain degree of magnitude change and duration of time change in the state of solar activity in order for it to exert an influence on the climate.
The period from 1844-2005 should have shown weak to no solar/climate correlations due to the fact solar activity through out that time was in a steady regular 11 year strong sunspot cycle with peaks and lulls which would masked any potential solar/climate correlations.
To clarify there is not one prolonged solar minimum period during that time frame following several years of sub-solar activity in general , to refer to ,to see if prolonged solar minimum conditions do or do not exert an influence on the climate directly and thru secondary means.
In addition I would like alternative explanations to account for the many past abrupt climatic changes(such as all 3 of the Younger Dryas events) the earth has undergone in the past.
AGW theory has already been proven to be incorrect to those of us who know better and have looked into the many predictions it has made which are wrong.
The models have predicted the basic atmospheric circulation(more of a +ao reality more of a -ao) and atmospheric temperature profiles wrong(lower tropospheric hot spot reality no hot spot )therefore it is not at all surprising the climate forecast are wrong. Not to forget co2 concentrations are a response to temperature change ,they do not lead the temperature change.
Run out of food? This is even more unlikely than running out of oil, IMHO. One of our major crops is corn. We have so much of it that we use it to mostly produce fatty meat, fuel for our cars, and high fructose corn syrup. Many, even here on the forum, think that we could do with significantly less of all three of these. We have such an overcapacity in food production that it makes me shake my head to hear anyone talk about running out of food.
David Archibald says:
September 9, 2013 at 1:54 am
John Day says:
September 8, 2013 at 8:19 pm
……..
Now you mention Dr Svalgaard, in fact you may be Dr Svalgaard. Dr Svalgaard has stated something, but it is not that the Sun affects the Earth’s climate. What does the Bible say? The Bible says “There are none so blind as those who will not see.” By regurgitating the purported views of Dr Svalgaard, you have made yourself a discredited element, to quote Marxist lexicology.
—————————————————————————————————————-
Well spotted David. The acerbic style of Mr John Day certainly is very characteristic of his doppleganger particularly in his subsequent response to your comments.!
rgb your post earlier sep .08 10:24 am was quite good, I should have not addressed my commentary to you, but made it in general.
Your post was balanced , I should have read it closer the first time.
@FrankK
> Well spotted David. The acerbic style of Mr John Day
> certainly is very characteristic of his doppleganger…
And perhaps you are Archibald, masquerading as “FrankK”. That’s doppelgänger, with an umlaut, BTW.
😐
Kermit says:
September 9, 2013 at 8:59 am
Run out of food? This is even more unlikely than running out of oil, IMHO. One of our major crops is corn. We have so much of it that we use it to mostly produce fatty meat, fuel for our cars, and high fructose corn syrup….
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
We are capable of producing food but the Mega-corporations are now looking at food as the next big boom. I went into the details in a post that is now hung in moderations so I am not going to go into it again. I do not agree with all that is in this article but it does outline most of what I said in my comment that got booted into a black hole.
Undermining Abundance: The Big Business of Creating Scarcity
Here is information to back up what is said in that article. History HACCP and the Food Safety Con-Job is a well researched history of Modern Industrialization of Farming and well worth the read. HACCP International is a leading food science organisation specialising in the HACCP Food Safety Methodology and its application within the food and related non food industries. and The International HACCP Alliance was developed on March 25, 1994, to provide a uniform program to assure safer meat and poultry products and to provide the World Trade Organization (1995) and OIE and FAO of the United Nations with unified food regulations approved by the IPC. “It is housed within the Department of Animal Science at Texas A&M University.”
F. William Engdahl says WTO/HACCP rules put free-trade of agribusiness above national health concerns. “The IPC was created in 1987 to lobby for the GATT agriculture rules of WTO at the Uruguay GATT talks. The IPC demanded removal of ‘high tariff’ barriers in developing countries, remaining silent on the massive government subsidy to agribusiness in the USA…. The IPC is controlled by US-based agribusiness giants which benefit from the rules they drafted for WTO trade…” John Munsell, Manager, Foundation for Accountability in Regulatory Enforcement also writes about HACCP’S Disconnect From Public Health Concerns These new international regulations have nothing to do with making food safe. They are about forcing family farmers off the land CHEAPLY via fines, bankruptcy and government confiscation. As world population expands, the demand for arable land should soar. At least that’s what George Soros, Lord Rothschild, and other investors believe. The elite are not about to allow family farmers to cash in on the next big boom cycle. We already know that regulations are preferentially enforced thanks to the ‘regulatory capture’ and The Revolving Door Between Gov’t And Big Business
Great post David!
I repeat here two important points of your comments that I totally agree with,
David Archibald says:
”… The Sun controls climate and all we have to do is figure out what the Sun is going to do.”
and
” … What I like about the 1974 CIA report is that they state what has been forgotten – “the Earth has , on the average, enjoyed the best agricultural climate since the eleventh century.” What humanity has enjoyed for the last 100 years is a once in a thousand years event. It is not the normal condition. We are returning to the normal condition. The question is – what will it be like? That is what this post is about. Quantifying the fall and its consequences…”
In fact the “normal condition” is that Earth’s temperatures have been steadily falling in the last 2000 years,
http://iceagenow.info/2013/05/contrary-leader%E2%80%99s-assertions-earth-cooling-2000-years/
probably signaling the end of the present Interglacial.
rgbatduke says:
“I’ll join in. It is just as big a mistake to make to assume that the Earth is a one-knob climate system where that knob is (through a causal chain that has not yet been quantitatively, predictively, verified) the sun as it is to assume that the Earth is a one-knob climate system where that knob is (through a causal chain of complex feedbacks that have not yet been quantitatively, predictively, verified) CO_2 concentration in the atmosphere. Indeed, they both could be important knobs. So could other factors we might be including wrong in current oversimplified models or might be neglecting altogether.”
I find that you are thoroughly missing the point. What matters here is simply how deep and for how many weeks or months that the Arctic Oscillation goes negative, and it is very much a one nob system, and is directly predictable from the solar signal. A global temperature measure is irrelevant as it is more likely to go up during the serious cold shots because of ENSO. As for CO2, it didn’t do much to mitigate the Maunder type land temperatures we have already experienced in December 2010, February 2012, and March 2013.
David Archibald says:
September 8, 2013 at 4:16 pm
David, I quoted the data, and gave the reference for my claim. Don’t like the data? Go complain to the FAO.
You don’t like my transparency, I guess … since so far you haven’t had the balls to do the same regarding your claims, to publish your data and the references.
w.
Wesley Bruce says:
September 8, 2013 at 7:52 pm
I’m sorry, Wesley, but no, it’s not “good work”, Whether he is right or wrong, until he publishes his data and code, it’s just more crappy unsupported anecdotes given to try to increase alarm.
Unsupported alarmism is not somehow magically acceptable when skeptics do it—it’s wrong when anyone does it.
w.
The Pompous Git says:
September 8, 2013 at 10:06 pm
Unfortunately, your recollection is wrong. And not just a little bit wrong. Completely the reverse of the truth wrong. The wheat exports from the USSR peaked in the 1960’s and 1970’s.
Git, I gave you the dang link to the FAO data above. Here it is again. USE IT TO AVOID FUTURE EMBARRASSMENT!!!
Folks, people around here could care less about what you “seem to recall”, and if you try what the Git just tried, you’ll get slapped down too. I’m sick and tired of doing other people’s homework, but I will continue to do so, and to call out nonsense when it appears.
w.
Gail Combs said @ur momisugly September 9, 2013 at 8:08 am
Way back when, we chose the word sustainable because it captured the idea of farming for the long term as distinct from agricultural methods that had led to such severe land degradation that farming was no longer possible. It was also a term that encompassed a variety of methods; it didn’t preclude the sensible use of agricultural chemicals. There is no synonym that quite captures the definition: “pertaining to a system that maintains its own viability by using techniques that allow for continual reuse”. “Low input sustainable agriculture” (LISA) is rather easier on the tongue than “Low input agriculture that maintains its own viability by using techniques that allow for continual reuse” (LIATMIOVBUTTAFCR).
Yes, the word has been hijacked, but the megacorporations are decidedly not farming sustainably. Here in Australia we had wheat growers losing 5kg of topsoil for each 1kg of wheat. I’d hope that is no longer the case.
I will post the book on my blog sometime in the next day, or two. I’d like your input prior to the rewrite.
/1/ During the Maunder minimum the “solar activity” (SA) was very low and so were the temperatures (LIA).
/2/ During the Dalton minimum similarly, but with a little lower “intensity” (temperature anomalies were not so negative as during the Maunder period).
/3/ At the beginning of the XX century, the SA was again low but not so much as during the Dalton period, and the anomalies went negative again, although not so pronouncedly as 100 years before.
/4/ During the late 1960’s and 1970’s we had solar cycle 20, which was relatively low, in comparison with previous cycles since the 1920’s and future cycles up to and including cycle 23 that ended in 2008.
Again temperatures went down to negative anomalies in this period, but not so strongly as at the beginning of the century.
/5/ Now, we have entered another phase of very low SA since 2008, and the temperatures have been falling steadily since a little prior to that minimum, with the exception of the El Nino year of 2010, as a plot of average linear trend of temperatures since 2001 readily shows
http://www.woodfortrees.org/graph/rss/from:2001/plot/rss/from:2001/trend
The Arctic icecap is showing signs of important recovery this year, and last summer was the coldest since 1958 in the Arctic according to DMI,
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
The Antarctic icecap has had many repeated records of ice extent in recent years, more than the average trend of the last century.
Of the greatest winter snowfalls since the 1970’s, 80% happened after 2008.
The frequency of La Nina’s in comparison with El Nino’s has increased this century in comparison with the last part of the XX century, showing again a trend to cooler temperatures and climates.
/6/ etc.
All this observed phenomena show/indicate a direct connection between SA and global temperatures, but for some reason some solar scientists have the firm belief that SA and global temperatures are not connected.
I believe the opposite and the next few years should set this debate in one direction or the other very clearly, especially if the connection really exists. In fact. I think that the obvious cooling in the last 12 months already indicates what the present trend is.
I truly believe the “solar scientists” will be proven wrong because those, like David Archibald, who have been promoting the idea of the connection between SA and global temperatures and predicting the evolution of the climate based on that, have been systematically proven right.
Without an open mind is impossible to accept a new paradigm.
Gail Combs says:
September 8, 2013 at 11:27 pm
Nailed it? He makes the bald unsupported claim that there are only five Savoy Cabbage varieties left available for sale … and two minutes searching finds a single page with nine varieties of Savoy Cabbage for sale, and another page with another six varieties. There’s another variety here … we’re up to sixteen varieties, and I haven’t even gone to the real heirloom catalogues.
Do you guys really think no one is paying attention, and you can just make it up?
Look, loss of seed varieties is important. It is an issue that is definitely worth discussing. Monoculture has a lot of problems, and loss of genetic variety is certainly one of them.
But trying to establish that with bullshit numbers doesn’t help anyone. And cheering for someone’s bogus numbers is pathetic. Do your homework, folks.
w.
PS—Savoy cabbage is a terrible example for what you are trying to establish, because it was developed by cross-breeding in Germany in the 1600’s. So the varieties are all a modern development which could very likely be re-created, it’s not like we’re losing ancient seed varieties.
Of the five snowiest NH winters since 1966, four have occurred since 2008,
http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Screen_shot_2013-05-30_at_9.42.56_AM.png
For all of you that believe that the secret to the earth’s temperature is “It’s the sun, stupid”, let me compare the sun to the furnace in a home.
What heats that home? Well, obviously, it’s the furnace, stupid.
BUT … if you think that the temperature of your house is determined by how much gas your furnace burns, you’re in for a big shock. Because if you look, you’ll see the furnace comes on, and it goes off … and the temperature of your house hardly changes at all.
Why?
Because IT’S THE THERMOSTAT, STUPID!!
So the mere fact that the sun is the source of the heat for the Earth, just as the furnace is the source of the heat for the house, does NOT mean that we can blithely assume that the Earth’s temperature will vary in step with the temperature of the sun when it goes up and down … any more than the house’s temperature varies in step with the furnace when it goes on and off.
w.
this from gail combs is real eye opener for me and very sad.http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/09/08/the-climate-grain-production-relationship-quantified/#comment-1412274
kind of makes me wonder what all the fuss about climate change is.its plainly obvious that the sheer greed of the supposed societal elite around the world will be the undoing of the planet,a long time before any change in climate.time to join UKIP i think
Willis Eschenbach says:
September 9, 2013 at 12:12 pm
Soviet wheat importation is an issue with which I’m personally familiar.
A distinction should be made between exports of food grain & imports of feed grain. The USSR under Khrushchev decided to try to improve its subject peoples’ diets. He had been impressed with US cornfields on his trip here, & idiotically thought he could reproduce American farming success in a communist dictatorship.
The event below & other early ’60s food riots in the USSR led the Politburo to start importing wheat in 1963, a huge embarrassment for the largest nation, which had traditionally been a big grain exporter:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novocherkassk_massacre
http://scholarsarchive.library.oregonstate.edu/xmlui/bitstream/handle/1957/4377/SR%20no.%20314_ocr.pdf?sequence=1
“The 1960’s began and ended with record stocks of wheat located in major
producing and exporting countries. The resultant depressing effects on
international wheat markets were not present throughout the decade, however.
The Soviet Union became a major net importer in 1963; this development began
to diminish world wheat stocks. Then in 1965-1966 drought reduced food grain
production in broad areas of Asia and hiked wheat shipments, particularly to
India. The world food problem became such a critical concern that the President
of the United States called for a comprehensive study by his Science
Advisory Committee. The pessimism about the world food situation soon turned
to guarded optimism in the late 1960’s as the benefits of agronomic research
initiated years earlier began to emerge. These benefits appeared dramatically
in the form of new rice and wheat varieties that triggered opportunities
for greatly improved yields. To a significant extent, these opportunities
are being realized in Asia. Along with higher wheat production in most
developed countries — both exporting countries and importing countries in
Western Europe — the international wheat markets returned to a position of
excess supply similar to when the decade began.”
However, after the failure of Khrushchev’s hare-brained schemes, the USSR continued starving its own people to send grain to client states until the early ’70s. Brezhnev then decided to import food as well as feed grains.
http://www.nass.usda.gov/Education_and_Outreach/Reports,_Presentations_and_Conferences/Yield_Reports/Grain%20Production%20in%20the%20USSR%20Present%20Situation,%20Perspectives%20for%20Development%20and%20Methods%20for%20Prediction.pdf
From above 1981 study:
“Average yearly grain production in the USSR during the past five years,
as mentioned above, was approximately 205 million tons. Thus, considering
only recent years, the USSR has had an average shortage of grain of about
60 million tons per year. But the gap between the production of grain and
the demand for it widens in years with unfavorable weather conditions. In
the past five years such conditions occurred three times. The shortages of
grain in these three years in the USSR totaled around 230 million tons or 76
million tons per year. That was 50% higher than average for 1976-1980. And
even in years with favorable weather conditions (1976, 1978) grain production
in the USSR was 25-40 million tons lower than Soviet needs for grain.”
Despite the US embargo in 1984, the USSR continued importing grain right up to the end in 1991. Since then, its agricultural economy has benefited from capitalism & greatly revived.
Willis Eschenbach said @ur momisugly September 9, 2013 at 12:12 pm
There were massive grain crop failures in the USSR in the 60s and 70s:
Severe crop failures occurred in 1963, 1965, 1972, & 1975. Perhaps the FAO failed to notice.
Willis Eschenbach said @ur momisugly September 9, 2013 at 12:33 pm
Just because you can find a webpage stating that certain varieties of seed are available, does not necessarily translate into genuine availability. Year before last I rather foolishly purchased two packs of Paleface cauliflower from one of those “heirloom” seed suppliers when my regular supplier stopped stocking. None of those seeds, (0.00%) germinated. Not the first time this has happened! The other problem I have had with these small seed suppliers was that the seeds supplied were not of the varieties named.
New Gippsland Seeds stock Vertus and Savoy Ace. They no longer stock Carters Improved. From other reputable suppliers I can purchase Savoy King and Neptune. If you know of an Australian supplier of Carters Improved please let me know. I’ve been trying to find one for well over a decade.
John Day says:
September 9, 2013 at 9:27 am
@FrankK
> Well spotted David. The acerbic style of Mr John Day
> certainly is very characteristic of his doppleganger…
And perhaps you are Archibald, masquerading as “FrankK”. That’s doppelgänger, with an umlaut, BTW.
😐
———————————————————————————————————–
Thanks Leif you have just confirmed your identity cover.
You haven’t caught up yet Leif Germany are about to or are deleting the umlaut. (lol)
Cheers. ;-
Willis Eschenbach says:
September 8, 2013 at 10:24 am
I’m gonna have to protest this one:
A return to the climatic conditions of the Dalton Minimum is likely to take Russia, Kazakhstan and the European Union out of the export market.
You repeat the error of the climate alarmists, who claim that a rise of a few degrees will be catastrophic. While a fall of a few degrees is definitely something to be concerned with, I don’t think that farmers are as foolish as you seem to assume they are. If the growing season gets shorter, they will switch to shorter season crops, including short-season corn.
You might be interested in running a search on the terms “Famine Steppe” or “Hungry Steppe.” You’ll find a good many mentions of Kazakhstan. The problem isn’t the farmers’ adaptability but that of their external markets. The steppes are Russia’s bread basket and less bread means less kvas, and less kvas means crankier Russians. It has also been pointed out that there is a correlation between the great movements out of Central Asia and deteriorating, as in chilling, climate conditions. Look for “Climate and the Affairs of Men” by Iben Browning. He was an early adopter in the Climate Alarmist movement, but he felt we ought to be worrying about a colder climate rather than a hotter one. It is worth a read at least for the entertainment value alone.