While many climate alarmists still try to tell us that global warming will increase tornadoes, we are in the middle of a tornado drought, and well below normal. Normally we’d see 1221 tornadoes in the USA, so far for 2013, only 716 have been reported.
![ptorngraph[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/ptorngraph1.png?quality=75)
The map of the USA shows the distribution:
So far, we are about 200 tornadoes below this time last year, and last year was also a low event year.
![torngraph-big[3]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/torngraph-big3.png?quality=75)
When looking historically at where we are, we find that 2013 has slipped below the historical minimum, setting a new record for the ~60 years in the tornado database.
![torgraph-big[3]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/torgraph-big3.png?quality=75)
What’s more, we are well past the time of peak tornado activity, which typically occurs in spring, when we have the most collisions between warm and cold air masses over the USA. While we could certainly see a rebound, it is statistically unlikely.
![tor_month[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/tor_month1.png?quality=75)
Sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/
@FerdinandAkin says:
August 19, 2013 at 8:08 am
But what is “average”? Taken over 4.5 billion years?
But Obama told me that Global Warming was causing ALL these storms!!!
All of the deniers that global warming is a fictitious UN retribution scheme have constantly told us we would have more tornadoes and hurricanes. If we have less tornadoes and hurricanes, they’ll argue that global warming causes both. Liberalism is a mental illness.
JimS says:
Warmists should rejoice in extreme weather rather than trying to scare children about such things at bedtime. Extreme weather is healthy for the earth. If the trend is showing more moderation in weather and climate, that is not good. After studying the Milankovitch cycles, and where the earth currently stands regarding them… nope, not good at all… moderate=bad; extreme=good.
JimS – please elaborate. Why is moderate weather bad when considering Milankovitch cycles?
Drudge screenshot for the record: http://postimg.org/image/nrxnf815v/
I wish a scientist would investigate why global warming is so much worse during the day than at night.
Here’s how it could be spun…
According to thermodynamics, the ability to extract work does not depend on temperature but on temperature gradient. In particular, tornadoes occur when warm, moist Gulf air meets cool, dry Arctic or Pacific air. If the northern regions are warming, then the temperature difference between these air masses may be lessening, reducing the energy available for tornado creation.
Course the fact that the continental air mass has been cooler than typical this year might argue against the above.
http://www.courierpress.com/news/2013/jun/16/modern-technology-lessens-threat-from-tornadoes/
The Great Tri-State Tornado was actually on March 18, 1925, though the paper made a mistake with March 19 stated. As chief meteorologist on WEHT, Evansville Indiana from 1982-1993, I did reports on the anniversary of that event. I went to some of the hardest hit towns, including Griffin IN that was completely destroyed and interviewed elderly folks who could recall the event like it was yesterday. Incredible stories.
There are numerous links with loads of supporting stats that make this stand out as the “worst” tornado in recorded history. If recorded history went back a million years, surely there were many more similar tornadoes(without people and buildings to destroy).
You’ll find this particular comment from the Encyclopedia Britannica very amusing when viewed from the perspective of todays alarmist world, where the objective is quite different:
“The tornado materialized about 1:00 pm local time in Ellington, Mo. It caught the town’s residents by surprise, as the weather forecast had been normal. (To prevent panic among the public, tornado forecasting was not practiced at the time, and even the word “tornado” had been banned from U.S. weather forecasts since the late 19th century.) ”
http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/1472896/Tri-State-Tornado-of-1925
2 days later, these were the headlines of the Chicago Herald Examiner.
http://www.historybyzim.com/2013/07/tri-state-tornado/
Good book on it:
http://books.google.com/books/about/The_Tri_State_Tornado.html?id=zXwhIUY9qlYC
Back to the graphs. The 2008 and 2011 years are obviously exceptional.
If temperature trends and correlations are done without the years where El Nino cause spikes why not the same for tornado numbers?
I’ll have to look at earlier data, but it seems the tornado peaks in 2008 and 2011 follow the El Nino that developed in late 2007 and 2010 and brought extra moisture (and rainfall) to the USA west coast.
Excluding the 2008 and 2011 years the average is much lower and the number for 2013 is not exceptional.
N.B. 2013 is still below average and so does not support any claim of increasing extreme weather events.
I do like this information being posted. However,…
A) I’m well aware that these are NOAA charts/graphs, but just how the heck do they “Inflation Adjust” tornadoes? Or are they referring to the damage?
B) Also, I’m not following the charts very well to understand how 60 years of recorded history is being shown. I’m not clearly seeing anything prior to 2005. (Maybe it’s just too late at night.)
C) Finally, I urge GREAT caution here. WE, at least, are referring to “recorded history” a vast step away from “ever” and “in history,” (no “recorded”) the terms “warmistas” use so readily. But, the historical record on this is short (about half that of thermometer records, and only a couple decades longer than the satellite record for hurricanes and other scientific observations as I recall), and we have had substantial changes in the detection technology, so the old records do not have the same potential as today’s to pick up tornadoes that are not seen in a farmer’s field. Yes, of course that means we may be seeing an even GREATER “tornado drought” than these charts suggest, but it’s still something that deserves a footnote.
And, do I dare say these are weather-related phenomena? They are merely one more indicator of a host of weather (and climatic) variables that continue to be rather incompletely (poorly?) understood as a system that includes feedback loops, etc.
@ur momisugly Ratt:
Have you asked your Sierra Clubber if it’s fewer before more, or more before fewer. Once she ponders that, you might also ask if it’s possible there could be natural variability — what some call “cycles” — of fewer, more, fewer, more, flat, more, fewer, flat,…
🙂
Sure it was a record low, but weren’t they all Mann-made global warming tornadoes????
It is not over until the fat lady sings; however, this is got to be the beginning of the end.
Least number of tornadoes in 60 years.
Highest coverage of sea ice in the Antarctic in recorded history, multiple months. Antarctic sea is has been high for all months of the year. On track to set a record for maximum extent.
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_stddev_timeseries.png
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.anomaly.antarctic.png
Arctic sea ice extent and likely thickness is recovering.
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_stddev_timeseries.png
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
What we need now is record low tropical storm and hurricane formation to complete the set.
The finishing on the cake will be record cold winters and negative global temperature anomalies.
Brilliant news for proponents of AGW – now we can badge the next average year as a 50% increase since 2013. Just think of the headlines !
Since it hasn’t been working for 17 years, doesn’t this possibly support a relationship with warming and tornados. Could the lack of tornados be due to stable Global Average Temperature (GAT)?
My guess would be that changes in GAT may correlate with storms. Storms due to increasing temps would remain essentially the same (global warming is really reduced cooling, not increased warming), but the muted fall in temps may reduce storms.
Mike Maguire says:
August 19, 2013 at 4:59 pm
Thanks Mike. I often point to the great Tri-State tornado of 1925 when climate “scientists” and their followers make wild assertions about modern tornadoes being the the “worst ever” due to global warming.
When there is a tornado, and lives are disrupted, the first people to swing into action are the companies (such as Walmart or Lowe’s) whose shipping capacity is efficient and flexible, and whose inventories are able to respond. Growers and millers also move quickly to provide rice to people through schools and churches. Medical and building supplies are also provided after disaster through our powerful fossil fuel based infrastructure.
Then a politician flies in, gets his picture taken, and declares a national emergency.
The greenhouse gas paradigm is yet another abuse of science by government, and these abuses by scientists have a lethal history during the 1900’s, including Lysenkoism and eugenics/population control. There is nothing wrong with co2 from power generation and transportation, methane from dairy cows, and nitrous oxide from rice and wheat.
Here’s a concept totally foreign to the alarmists, it’s called E-QUA-LIBR-IUM. The earth has always cycled between extremes. The alarmists deny this because to do so is to admit how impotent we humans really are in all things climate change. The climate changes not because of us, but despite us. For a group that is allegedly all about nature, they shoor is ignerent of it.
Looks like a possible record low year for hurricanes also. None this year in the entire Atlantic Basin(through August).
……well there you go….global warming has caused a record low year for hurricanes……see how it works?
Wait for it: the Alarmists’ next mantra will have to be hyped anxiety about the radically abnormal moderation of the weather.
……I think that I am having a problem with the term “alarmist”. These people are calculating socialist who believe that there is never too much government control over our lives and that the greatest threat is too much individual liberties…….they don’t give a tinker’s damn about the climate…!
I found an old text book (in my pile of old books) containing a tornado frequency histogram for the period 1916-1960, similar to the graph depicted above “Tornado Frequency by Month 1980-2010”. Here’s the comparison:
-Period- : JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
1980-2010: 1 2 12 23 42 71 46 21 9 32 6 0
1916-1960: 5 8 21 37 53 43 22 14 9 12 13 5
Difference -4 -6 -9 -14 -11 28 24 7 0 20 -7 -5
Are the current observation methods (eg storm chasing) introducing a BIAS that increases the tornado count during the warmer months and decreases the count during the cooler months?
Historical data source: “The Earth Sciences” Arthur N Strahler (reprint 1965) Page 286. Title caption for the figure 15.20 was “Frequency of tornadoes in the U.S. by months of the year for the period 1916-1960 (US Dept of Commerce, Weather Bureau)”. Title caption for the graph was “Average Number of Tornadoes Reported”