Those that want to make today’s weather seem like the “worst ever” often make ludicrous claims trying to link weather to high CO2 levels. For example, that extra CO2 gives the weather “personality“, or even more extreme linkage, like this:
Climate change means increased severe weather and asthma attacks. See what it means for your state: http://t.co/Pe9mOTVAro
— US EPA Research (@EPAresearch) July 1, 2013
and this
Climate Depot has a headline from Goddard that touts all the weather (not climate) issues of 2013 in the context of the highest ever reported CO2 concentration in modern times. Unfortunately, the link contained no proof, only claims. I decided to provide the proof.
First, about that 400PPM of CO2:
Unfortunately, they backed down from the claim later saying:
‘Carbon dioxide measurements in the Earth’s atmosphere did not break the symbolic milestone of 400 parts per million at a Hawaiian observatory last week, according to a revised reading from the nation’s climate observers.
The current level as of this writing is at: 395.50ppm and has actually gone down since the announcement of breaking the 400 ppm mark:
![co2_weekly_mlo[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/co2_weekly_mlo1-e1376168771698.png?quality=75)
Source: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html
Next: let’s take each of the claims below and provide the context for proof:
- Coldest summer on record at the North Pole
- Highest August Arctic ice extent since 2006
- Record high August Antarctic ice extent
- No major hurricane strikes for eight years
- Slowest tornado season on record
- No global warming for 17 years
- Second slowest fire season on record
- Four of the five snowiest northern hemisphere winters have occurred since 2008
Coldest summer on record at the North Pole:
Easy to prove, as we’ve covered this issue recently here. The DMI plot of Arctic temperature for 2013 (at the end pause of this animation) hasn’t gone above the climatic normals since this dataset began in 1958:
Highest August Arctic ice extent since 2006:
Plausible, but is debatable, depending on what data you look at, for example, this plot from DMI:
![icecover_current_new[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/icecover_current_new1.png?quality=75)
Source: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/icecover/icecover_current_new.png
Others on the WUWT sea ice page suggest it could go either way. What isn’t debatable though is that there has been a dramatic slowing of loss of Arctic ice extent in the past couple of weeks, as shown below, and that the current extent is well within the +/- 2 standard deviation.
Source: arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/timeseries.anom.1979-2008
Record high August Antarctic ice extent:
That’s easy to show, at the end of July starting into August, as Paul Homewood demonstrates:
ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/south/daily/data/
Since then, Sunshine Hours puts it in context with other years:
After taking a small jog sideways and downwards, Antarctic Sea Extent is back to moving up.
Day 221 is in 2nd place. 2010 holds the daily record. Can 2013 catch the 2010 record pace again? Wait and see.
No major hurricane strikes for eight years:
As we pointed out at the beginning of the hurricane season on June 1st, Hurricane season begins with a new record hurricane drought for the USA
The graph above provides an update to data on the remarkable ongoing US “intense hurricane drought.” When the Atlantic hurricane season starts next June 1, it will have been 2,777 days since the last time an intense (that is a Category 3, 4 or 5) hurricane made landfall along the US coast (Wilma in 2005). Such a prolonged period without an intense hurricane landfall has not been observed since 1900. – Dr. Roger Pielke Jr
It is now at 2847 days since Hurricane Wilma (the last Cat3 hurricane to strike the USA) on Oct 24th, 2005 as of August 10th, 2013.
Slowest tornado season on record:
Easy to prove, just look at NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center Data, which shows we are near a record low for tornado activity in the USA:
![torngraph-big[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/torngraph-big1.png?quality=75)
![torgraph-big[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/torgraph-big1.png?quality=75)
Source: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/#data
No global warming for 17 years:
This statement gets a number of people riled up, but it is clear that global warming has slowed to a crawl. Even the New York Times has at last been constrained to admit this.
Last year we had this:
Now a year later:
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:1997/plot/rss/from:1997/trend
and
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:1997/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:1997/trend
Slight cooling in the troposphere, slight warming at the surface, both virtually flat.
Of course after the latest HadCRUT4 “adjustments” are added in, some can claim it is actually warming.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1997/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1997/trend
Second slowest fire season on record:
Actually, just for this record set. The National Fire Information Center says:
2013 is actually lowest in the last decade for the number of fires, and second lowest for acreage.
Four of the five snowiest northern hemisphere winters have occurred since 2008:
Rutgers snow lab shows this clearly.
![nhland_season1[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/nhland_season11.gif)
1978 was tops, followed by 2010, 2011, 2013, and 2008.
Source: http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_seasonal.php?ui_set=nhland&ui_season=1
We live in interesting times of nearly 400ppm of Co2 concentration in our atmosphere.
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@Gary Young Pearse –
More compelling evidence of higher sea levels in past warm periods comes from the following:
1. Ostia (Rome) and other harbors in the Mediterranean that are now high and dry today were flourishing ports during the height of the Roman Empire. (The argument that Ostia’s harbor was silted up by the Tiber is untrue because the river did not empty into it, and other harbors had no rivers adjacent to them.)
2. Venice was only founded in the sixth century because before that, the islands it sits on were well under water.
As for CO2 at 399.5 ppm, or 400 ppm – or even 1,500 ppm as in commercial greenhouses – I can only say,”So what? Bring it on!”
@DirkH and George Smith
I did not press the sarc/off button.
Seriously, this should be the Louisville Slugger to beat over the head of AGW. The non-existent ubiquitous “hot spot” is THE main tenet of Anthropogenic Global Warming; the “fingerprint”. Lo the last 25 years of following this whole thing, it was the enhanced “greenhouse effect” that kept my attention. Somehow it has been conveniently ignored now that it doesn’t work as advertised.
I know Anthony will not allow anyone to guest post on the subject, but how is it that even John Christy acknowledges the missing hot spot as a real head scratcher for him and his colleagues, yet anyone questioning the idea of the GHE are treated like lepers.
I don’t recall seeing this new paper by Christy and Douglass being mentioned by WUWT. IMO it should be front and center.
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2013/08/new-paper-finds-fingerprint-of-man-made.html
Excellent: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0272494411000867
• http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvp.2011.12.002
Dead indoor plants strengthen belief in global warming
• Nicolas Guéguen
“Abstract
Studies have revealed that heuristics and accessible schemas may affect people’s judgments about global warming. In two studies, participants were asked to report on beliefs regarding global warming while seated in a room in which a small tree or several trees had been placed. In one experimental condition, the tree possessed its foliage whereas in the other, the branches were bare. It was found that participants were more likely to believe in global warming in presence of the tree without foliage (Study 1), that this belief increased in presence of three rather than one tree without foliage (Study 2), and that other beliefs not related to global warming were not affected by the experimental conditions. These results reveal that surrounding physical cues do affect beliefs about global warming. The spreading activation theory is used to explain these results.”
Game, Set, and Match?
Check Mate?
Back when I entered this fight in 2009 and lost a major battle against a national Carbon(Carbon Dioxide) Tax I began to pray.
House Passes the 1,200-page Climate Bill that Congress was Not Allowed to Read. Despite heated objections by some Republicans, the unread 1,200-page Waxman-Markey climate bill was passed 219-212 in the House on Friday. June 26, 2009
“WASHINGTON — Landmark legislation to curb U.S. greenhouse-gas emissions was approved by the House of Representatives in a close vote late Friday, securing an initial victory for a cornerstone of President Barack Obama’s agenda.
The 1,200 page bill — formally known as the “American Clean Energy and Security Act” — will reach into almost every corner of the U.S. economy. By putting a price on emissions of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, the bill would affect the way electricity is generated, how homes and offices are designed, how foreign trade is conducted and how much Americans pay to drive cars or to heat their homes.
The House climate bill, approved by a 219-212 vote Friday evening, would mandate that 15% of the nation’s electricity come from renewable sources such as wind and solar power by 2020, potentially expanding the market and profit potential for companies in those sectors. Towards that goal, it seeks to boost nascent industries such as wind-generated electricity and solar power.”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124602039232560485.html#mod=rss_Today's_Most_Popular
What to do, what to do? Blog and Pray.
WUWT became a daily utility to spread my message, and a very useful utility at that, as long as I was being put up with. I noticed from solar activity updates the Sun started going into a bit of an extended slow period and I prayed it would stay that way for a long time. Little did I know it would.
I was reading articles of serious cold spells occurring around the globe about that time. I believed if the Sun stayed in a low activity phase, the planet would get cold enough to teach the man-made global warming crowd a lesson the would never forget. Even though virtually everyone at the time said the Sun didn’t affect climate and temperature, I still checked it daily and weekly, and cheered when the number of sun spots were low. So many days of a blank Sun passed. It was beautiful.
November 2009 we got an early Christmas present, Climategate emails, that helped block further congressional action on the Cap and Trade bill. But I knew what it would take to de-program an entire nation brainwashed by mainstream media into believing Climate Change was peoples fault. I continued to cheerlead a low output Sun even to this day.
Was it just dumb luck and good timing another Dalton Minimum was under way? It sure is helping out in the de-programing process. Or is some celestial consciousness really listening to some of us, acting on our prayers?
What if a cooling world results in a drop of atmospheric co2 over the years to come? That would be wonderful irony if co2 never rises above the dreaded 400, on top of which it would end the co2 debate forever.
Restless 1 says:
August 10, 2013 at 8:23 pm
I have to wonder. Is Hawaii the best place for global CO2 measurements?
Pick one of these answers: Yes, No, Maybe, It depends.
In the WUWT search box (near the top on the right) type in Mauna Loa. Read all the posts and comments and follow all the leads therein.
Also, go here:
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/
and here (one of the links in the above):
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/about/co2_measurements.html
Here are the subject headings:
Summary
Infrared absorption.
Mole fraction in dry air
Calibration of the instrument.
Target gas.
Data selection for background air.
Auxiliary measured variables
How we calibrate the reference gases.
Replication of the field measurements
Observed variations of CO2 in the atmosphere.
Further reading
imjak @ur momisugly 8:30 almost answered his own honest question, leaving out all the nutcases hyping CAGW except the news industry. It is a long list.
Not sure what extreme fires are but think the wording is a clue that the questions are not really “honest.”
Sorry folks global warming has not flatlined. Randene Neill a Global TV News anchor in Vancouver BC said the flash floods in Colorado were caused by global warming climate change, so there. That is all the proof I need.
Do I have to use sarc on.
The next logical step is to finally place the “CO2 must produce some warming” belief/assumption under the microscope for detailed critical examination, as every indication is that it doesn’t have any effect whatsoever.
Al Gore should be proud he once again saved the world from eminent doom.
“Excelsior!”
George E. Smith says;
“Of course it doesn’t matter to you; because as a smoker, you won’t be around in 200 years.”
I hate to break the bad news to ya George……None of us will be.
Dennis Dunton said, “I hate to break the bad news to ya George…”
Awww Dennis Dennis Dennis… it was meant as light satire.
Makes me wonder if I needed to put a /s at the end of my “Excelsior!” post?
Other_Andy @ur momisugly 4.05:
As far as I am aware…
HadCRUt3 used actual station data. As there are no recording stations in the Arctic (as such) then no Arctic temps were used. However, HadCRUt4 extrapolates from stations (sometimes a thousand miles away) and ‘bestguesses’ likely Arctic temps, just like GISS does. This therefore makes HadCRUt4 a ‘fiddle’ and HadCRUt3 actually better. I’ll stand corrected if all that is not quite right, but that’s what I’m given to understand.
I don’t know if this is weather or climate but I’ve never seen anything like this here at the Colorado – New Mexico border, and we live here more than 20 years.
For the record: it is 1:40 AM, August 11th, 2013, and the temperature outside is 44 degrees Fahrenheit (7 degrees Celsius).
This, in the very middle of summer, third night in a row. Why this rather extreme summer cold is not in the news?
It seems that the more evidence points to a climate change “meh”, the louder and more shrill the machinations of alarmists. As if they are screaming “nothing to see here” directly onto the ear of the collective consciousness. But, like the average teenager, the louder you holler, the more likely they will look at what you are trying to dissuade them from.
Alexander Feht says:
August 11, 2013 at 12:43 am
“For the record: it is 1:40 AM, August 11th, 2013, and the temperature outside is 44 degrees Fahrenheit (7 degrees Celsius).”
Try this;
Rocket Stove Mass Heater
rocket mass heaters in a nutshell:
heat your home with 80% to 90% less wood
exhaust is nearly pure steam and CO2 (a little smoke at the beginning)
the heat from one fire can last for days
you can build one in a day and half
folks have built them spending less than $20
the verbose details on rocket mass heaters:
This could be the cleanest and most sustainable way to heat a conventional home. Some people have reported that they heat their home with nothing more than the dead branches that fall off the trees in their yard. And they burn so clean, that a lot of sneaky people are using them illegally, in cities, without detection.
When somebody first told me about rocket mass heaters, none of it made sense. The fire burns sideways? No smoke? If a conventional wood stove is 75% efficient, doesn’t that mean the most wood you could possibly save is something like 25%? How do you have a big hole right over the fire and not have the house fill with smoke? I was skeptical.
And then I saw one in action. The fire really does burn sideways. The exhaust is near room temperature – and very clean. The smoke doesn’t come back up because a huge amount of air is getting sucked into the wood hole. Neat! I sat on one that had not had a fire in it for 24 hours – it was still hot!
http://www.richsoil.com/rocket-stove-mass-heater.jsp
Other_Andy says:
August 10, 2013 at 4:05 pm
What are the “HadCRUT4 adjustments”?
The ones that were necessary for the temperatures to show a rising trend over the last few years.
Robert of Ottawa says:
August 10, 2013 at 5:14 pm
Tiredoc says: @ugust 10, 2013 at 4:52 pm
I wonder what the warmist parties are like nowadays
The warmistas do not give an eff. They use global warming as an excuse for socialist policies. It’s that simple. Yes, it is political and launched by the left. Lysenko anyone?
You have the incorrect tense. “The warmistas do not give an eff. They useD global warming as an excuse for socialist policies. It’s that simple.”
Those socialist policies are now in place so there is no need for ‘warmistas’ who will now see their funding reduced. As far as the politicians are concerned the battle is over – hence their continual mantra the science is settled.
Alexander Feht says:
August 11, 2013 at 12:43 am
I don’t know if this is weather or climate but I’ve never seen anything like this here at the Colorado – New Mexico border, and we live here more than 20 years.
For the record: it is 1:40 AM, August 11th, 2013, and the temperature outside is 44 degrees Fahrenheit (7 degrees Celsius).
This, in the very middle of summer, third night in a row. Why this rather extreme summer cold is not in the news?
———
Cold is not in the news because it is ‘off-message’ for the Administration and the US media only reports what they are allowed to report by the Administration.
Ian W says:
August 11, 2013 at 1:16 am
“Cold is not in the news because it is ‘off-message’ for the Administration and the US media only reports what they are allowed to report by the Administration.”
We don’t have a free mainstream media press in America anymore. Most people realize this. Once CNN got 15 million viewers on a Larry King prime time show. Now that same time slot for Piers Morgan gets 500k if he’s lucky.
The MSM has become a cover-up arm for government lies and propaganda. No matter. People who work at those corporations are getting what they deserve, the worst pay and bonuses ever.
Robert of Ottawa says:
August 10, 2013 at 4:10 pm
“A lie told often enough becomes the truth.”
variously attributed to Lenin (I doubt) Goebels (possible) but the most unlikely is William James (1842-1910) The father of modern Psychology “There’s nothing so absurd that if you repeat it often enough, people will believe it.”
———————————————————————–
Doesn’t even make sense – in fact it means the exact opposite of what Goebels is alleged to have said. It’s also so badly worded there’s no way an educated psychologist would say something like that.
Here’s a version that actually makes sense, from thinkexist.com:
“There is nothing so absurd that it cannot be believed as truth if repeated often enough.”
george e. smith says:
August 10, 2013 at 8:11 pm
Well the first two graphs of CO2 at Mauna Loa, demonstrate the falsity of a common claim of the CO2 warming alarmists; that CO2 remains in the atmosphere for 200 years. The second detailed data plot, shows that the annual CO2 “cycle” amplitude (at ML) has an amplitude of 9 ppm p-p. It takes 8 months for that 9 ppm increase to occur, but all that excess CO2 is removed in just 3 1/2 months. If we place the total excess CO2 at 120 ppm (400-280) over the supposed “equilibrium” level of 280 ppm, then all of that would be removed in 120 / 3.5 months , if the CO2 contributory mechanisms, were all shut down. That is 34.3 months, which would be the time constant of a simple exponential decay process, which fits many physical processes. so if all sources were shut down, 99% of the CO2 excess, would be removed in five time constants, or 14.3 years.
I don’t think that argument works. It assumes that there would not be a similar fluctuation on the way down. But there would be, because NH plant growth does not continue all year, at least not at the same level. The mechanism of decline independent of the annual cycle would be something other than plant growth.
CO2 Is it not regulated by plant life ?I wonder how high the CO2 level was during the ice age when plant life was at a low?
400 ppm
What evidence do we have that nature works in base 10?
It is a totally meaningless ‘milestone’
And at 700ppm, Kenji will still be saying Ho Hum ZZzz
Plants will have an even wider grin., and much greener leaves.
And Hansen will still be predicting doom……. 20 years down the track.
AlGore’s bank balance from the scam will still be high enough for him to own his mansion by the sea.