For the National Climate Assessment NASA has produced a model-based prediction of eight degrees Fahrenheit for the continental US by 2100 as the most likely scenario
Story submitted by Ben Bakker
NASA scientists have created a video showing predicted dramatic heating of the continental US between now and the year 2100. The video and prediction show results of models assuming a rise in CO2 to a low of 550 ppm and a high of 800 ppm by 2100. The NASA team states that the 800 ppm value is a more likely scenario. The scenarios based upon their models lead to rises of 4 degrees and 8 degrees Fahrenheit respectively across the contiguous US. Video follows:
The team states that they calibrated 15 different models to the years as a baseline for comparison. They created two videos showing the changes in temperatures and precipitation.
The interesting part is that they chose the years 1970 to 1999 to calibrate the models. Calibrate them to what? Did they assume the co2 rise during that period was the sole factor driving temperatures across the US and calibrate the rise in temperature based on that correspondence? Did they quantify the role of pollution / aerosol reduction during that period? Changes in multi-decadal oscillations on regional climate? Changes in regional humidity? Was it a global or local model calibration? Why did they end the calibration period at 1999? Why start at 1970? With more data available and no contrasting calibrations provided this looks like a search for a high end projection. Perhaps explanations are provided in the research. Questions abound.
This is part of the upcoming National Climate Assessment Report.
Here is a description that accompanies the video:
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The average temperature across the continental U.S. could be 8 degrees Fahrenheit warmer by the end of the 21st century under a climate scenario in which concentrations of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide rise to 800 parts per million. Current concentrations stand at 400 parts per million, and are rising faster than at any time in Earth’s history.
These visualizations — which highlight computer model projections from the draft National Climate Assessment — show how average temperatures could change across the U.S. in the coming decades under two different carbon dioxide emissions scenarios.
Both scenarios project significant warming. A scenario with lower emissions, in which carbon dioxide reaches 550 parts per million by 2100, still projects average warming across the continental U.S. of 4.5 degrees Fahrenheit.
The visualizations, which combine the results from 15 global climate models, present projections of temperature changes from 2000 to 2100 compared to the historical average from 1970 -1999. They were produced by the Scientific Visualization Studio at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md., in collaboration with NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center and the Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites, both in Asheville, N.C.
The visualizations show the temperature changes as a 30-year running average. The date seen in the bottom-right corner is the mid-point of the 30-year average being shown.
“These visualizations communicate a picture of the impacts of climate change in a way that words do not,” says Allison Leidner, Ph.D., a scientist who coordinates NASA’s involvement in the National Climate Assessment “When I look at the scenarios for future temperature and precipitation, I really see how dramatically our nation’s climate could change.”
To learn more about the National Climate Assessment, due out in 2014, visit here: http://www.globalchange.gov/what-we-d…
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What would the presentation look like if the scientists had to bet their personal house and government retirement that the prediction was correct?
Jimbo writes:” There is good budget money in ‘global warming’.” You have hit the nail on the head Jim. Everyone has money to make on this or government money to prostitute themselves for. It is becomming impossible to believe anyone or anything.
CACCA is doing terrible damage to the reputation of science. In forty years, climatologists will have to deny their discipline ever forecast temperatures so high for this century, just as they now try to cover up their imminent ice age predictions of the 1970s.
If humanity be lucky, the current interglacial will break all longevity records, as some scientists expect, but based upon Milankovitch cycles, not CO2.
If our present CO2 concentration is approximately 400 ppm and we are in the last half of 2013 we have 87 years to get to the ppm numbers in their models. At present we add 1 to 1.5 ppm to our atmosphere each year. The lower number of 550 ppm is an additional CO2 of 1.72 ppm per year,
and to get to the 800 ppm number, the additional CO2 is 4.59 ppm per year. A widely over optimistic number. So their scary models again have little basis in actual data. The CO2 increase is almost linear, and you have to make crazy assumptions to get it to increase at the upper rates.
NZ Willie suggests: “… denialists seem to be settling on climate sensitivity of 1.7C per doubling of CO2.”
Well, the theoretical (calculable) sensitivity should be only 1.2 degrees:
http://climatephys.org/2012/06/28/climate-sensitivity-and-the-linearized-response/
I should keep a copy of this in case medicine improves enough for me to live to see it 🙂 Personally, I think there’s a fair chance that even the recent ~1.5C sensitivity estimates will turn out too high. If feedbacks are mainly negative, CO2 warming might not even be enough to cancel natural cooling in the coming 87 years…
Jimbo says:
July 29, 2013 at 2:13 am
‘“These visualizations communicate a picture of the impacts of climate change in a way that words do not,” says Allison Leidner, Ph.D., a scientist who coordinates NASA’s involvement in the National Climate Assessment’
“Visualizations communicate a picture…in a way that words do not.” Yep, moving from hypotheses stated in sentences to “visualizations” surely moves one from reason to emotion. And, yes, the emotional level is where NASA lives todayj.
izen
See SAMURAI’s post just above yours, he pretty much blows their methodology out by showing that you could produce the same results on the back of a napkin.
Please see the Dot Com Bust, Housing Bust, and Great Recession for further reading on what happens when you try to predict the future based on past linear trends…
Allison Leidner, Post Doctoral Researcher
Ph.D. North Carolina State University, Department of Zoology, 2009
M.S. Stanford University, Department of Biological Sciences, 2003
B.S. Stanford University, Department of Biological Sciences, 2002
Allison is broadly interested in the conservation of rare and endangered species. At the University of Maryland, she will be using bioinformatic approaches to develop scientifically defensible recovery goals for threatened and endangered species in the United States. Allison’s dissertation research examined how urban and agricultural fragmentation affected butterfly communities, and particularly focused on conservation strategies to ameliorate the effects of habitat fragmentation.
In addition to the biological aspects of conservation, she is interested in the intersection of science and policy, and promoting communication between scientists, policy-makers, and the general public. Allison left the lab to accept a prestigious AAAS postdoctoral fellowship where she is working with NASA on climate change issues.
NASA should get back to rocketry and exploration. This so obviously is just politics and corruption.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/07/22/the-day-the-earth-smiled-stunning-photo-from-saturn-by-cassini-spacecraft/
Butter up the public with the good stuff, then squeeze out something stinky while everyone’s still in “isn’t NASA great?” mode…
NASA isn’t doing science. It’s making propaganda and calling it science. They should be ashamed of themselves.
NASA= Not About Science Anymore
Samurai, 2:51 AM:
You beat me to it. I was idly thinking, “If I just take the steepest rise in the recent temperature record, and the CO2 rise in that period, pretend that’s all there is to it, then extrapolate from current temps and CO2 levels out to 2100, does that come out any higher?”
It’s spot on, isn’t it? Makes you wonder about the assumptions behind those 15 models.
@Simon –
The NOAA figures you cite are the ones that were revealed to have been doctored, through a FOIA inquiry. They’re completely false, “adjusted” upward bu up to 3 C, and/or taken from urban heat islands.
NASA died with Columbia and Challenger. When I became aware of the global warming controversy about 1998; my first reaction was to look at the temperature history of the Holocene. A trend line of Holocene temperatures is negative; end of argument! The Milancovich orbital parameters indicate an end to this interglacial is close. The current and next Solar cycles are of more concern than a few parts per million of CO2 added to the atmosphere in terms of the Earths ambient temperature. Regards
All climate models have the same problem – GIGO. Let’s move on
So are these modelers dodging accountability by calling themselves ‘NASA Scientists’? It would be really useful to have names so that they can be identified when the models are shown to be wrong. This is bound to happen as not one single GCM has _ever_ been correct.
@- bobbyv
“can skeptics and warmists stop arguing and start betting? that way we can see if they truly think the science is settled.
i would love to wager on this one. any takers?”
You used to be able to bet on intrade over future climate but I think they shut down.
There are other futures sites, search engines will help you find them.
You can get incredibly good odds for a future cooling, well over ten to one…. Because only a very few have faith in cooling, all the smart informed money is on warming.
What NASA needs to do is show us a model that works and accurately predicts today’s climate using data available up to 1913. If they can do that I’ll convert to climate hysteria advocacy within the hour.
Um, I’m not sure I’d trust NASA with anything, under the current management which is obviously devoid of rational judgement.
Other_Andy says: July 29, 2013 at 12:25 am
That’s 0.051 C per year. Too small to measure. We have to wait 10 – 30 years to be able to validate the model. Clever….
But that would be a very good time period if we asked them to bet their pensions on the success of their projections.
rk says:
July 29, 2013 at 1:15 am
William Astley says:
July 29, 2013 at 12:37 am
I wish the petitioners well, but I don’t think they’ll get far. Here’s Scalia’s opinion
It is really not up to the Court to decide on such matters
William:
You miss the two points I was trying to make.
Point 1: The silly presentation produced by NASA is obviously propaganda it does not address the scientific issues, it hides the scientific issues. Obvious propaganda issued by NASA does not make sense. NASA is a scientific agency, not a propaganda group like Green Peace or 350org. Why would a scientific agency issue propaganda? It is asserted there is a cabal at NASA that is trying to push, trying to justify the green scam agenda. The NASA is ignoring the science/observations/analysis that disproves the extreme AGW hypothesis and are ignoring what is currently happening to the sun which is ironical, surreal, as we will see unfold.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabal
There is an economic reason why the Supreme Court petition was filed and there are scientific issues raised in the petition. Raising the cost of electricity and transportation fuel will negatively impact the US. There is only some much money to spend on all government departments including NASA. NASA is already facing budget cuts. Changes that will make the US less competitive will negatively impact all US citizens particularly government employees. This is lose-lose for NASA employees and US citizens. NASA propaganda is part of the problem why the Obama administration is trying to force States to spend money on green scams. i.e. NASA does not provide independent scientific analysis to assist in making policy decisions.
Point 2: The planet and the US are going to cool not warming. A silly graph produced by NASA does not affect what will happen next. The planet warms and cools due to physical reasons rather than propaganda. There is data and scientific issues raised in the Supreme Court petition and in EPA’s own analysis (see below) that supports the assertion that planet has warmed and cooled in the past cyclically and that the warming due to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 will be less than 1C, all else being equal.
http://icecap.us/images/uploads/EF_SC_Cert_Amicus_153014_1_Final-1.pdf
All else is not however equal. There is a significant solar magnetic cycle change underway. Each and every warm period in the current interglacial was followed by a cold period when the sun when into a Maunder like minimum.
The sun is going into a Maunder like minimum.
In the past, for some unexplained physical reason there was a delay of roughly one cycle (10 to 12 years) from the time that the solar magnetic cycle slowdown started and the cooling occurred. The delay is caused by a process … (no need to explain the mechanisms as to why there is delay in cooling until there is more cooling.)
As there is now cooling observed in high latitude regions both pole it is evident by observation that the inhibiting mechanism is ending. Observational evidence
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_stddev_timeseries.png
Based what has happened in the past, the cooling is in the same regions that experienced the warming, except due to the ice sheet see-saw there is additional sea ice in the Southern Hemisphere. The most amount of cooling on the planet will be on the Greenland Ice sheet due to the mechanisms. Greenland ice temperature, last 11,000 years determined from ice core analysis, Richard Alley’s paper.
http://www.climate4you.com/images/GISP2%20TemperatureSince10700%20BP%20with%20CO2%20from%20EPICA%20DomeC.gif
http://www.climate4you.com/
At the above site, the following graph, a comparison of the past solar cycles 21, 22, and 23 to the new cycle 24 is provided. That graph is update every six months or so.
http://www.solen.info/solar/images/comparison_recent_cycles.png
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2009/06/endangermentcommentsv7b1.pdf
The following is a technical brief written by the EPA’s own expert that questions the AGW science and the scientific independence of the IPCC.
“Technical Support Document for Endangerment Analysis for Greenhouse Gas Emissions under the Clean Air Act”
Technical Support Document for Endangerment Analysis for Greenhouse Gas Emissions under the Clean Air Act
I have become increasingly concerned that EPA has itself paid too little attention to the science of global warming. EPA and others have tended to accept the findings reached by outside groups, particularly the IPCC and the CCSP, as being correct without a careful and critical examination of their conclusions and documentation. If they should be found to be incorrect at a later date, however, and EPA is found not to have made a really careful independent review of them before reaching its decisions on endangerment, it appears likely that it is EPA rather than these other groups that may be blamed for any errors. Restricting the source of inputs into the process to these these two sources may make EPA’s current task easier but it may come with enormous costs later if they should result in policies that may not be scientifically supportable. The failings are listed below in decreasing order of importance in my view: (See attached for details.)
1. Lack of observed upper tropospheric heating in the tropics (see Section 2.9 for a detailed discussion).
2. Lack of observed constant humidity levels, a very important assumption of all the IPCC models, as CO2levels have risen (see Section 1.7).
3. The most reliable sets of global temperature data we have, using satellite microwave sounding units, show no appreciable temperature increases during the critical period 1978-1997, just when the surface station data show a pronounced rise (see Section 2.4). Satellite data after 1998 is also inconsistent with the GHG/CO2/AGW hypothesis 2009 v
4. The models used by the IPCC do not take into account or show the most important ocean oscillations which clearly do affect global temperatures, namely, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and the ENSO (Section 2.4). Leaving out any major potential causes for global warming from the analysis results in the likely misattribution of the effects of these oscillations to the GHGs/CO2 and hence is likely to overstate their importance as a cause for climate change.
5. The models and the IPCC ignored the possibility of indirect solar variability (Section 2.5), which if important would again be likely to have the effect of overstating the importance of GHGs/CO2.
6. The models and the IPCC ignored the possibility that there may be other significant natural effects on global temperatures that we do not yet understand (Section 2.4). This possibility invalidates their statements that one must assume anthropogenic sources in order to duplicate the temperature record. The 1998 spike in global temperatures is very difficult to explain in any other way (see Section 2.4).
7. Surface global temperature data may have been hopelessly corrupted by the urban heat island effect and other problems which may explain some portion of the warming that would otherwise be attributed to GHGs/CO2. In fact, the Draft TSD refers almost exclusively in Section 5 to surface rather than satellite data.
“2.9 The Missing Heating in the Tropical Troposphere
Computer models based on the theory of GHG/CO2 warming predict that the troposphere in the tropics should warm faster than the surface in response to increasing CO2 concentrations, because that is where the CO2 greenhouse effect operates. Sun-Cosmic ray warming will warm the troposphere more uniformly.
The UN’s IPCC AR4 report includes a set of plots of computer model predicted rate of temperature change from the surface to 30 km altitude and over all latitudes for 5 types of climate forcings as shown below.
The Hadley Centre’s real-world plot of radiosonde temperature observations shown below, however, does not show the projected CO2 induced global warming hot-spot at all. The predicted hot-spot is entirely absent from the observational record. This shows that most of the global temperature change cannot be attributed to increasing CO2 concentrations.”
@ur momisugly strike says:
July 29, 2013 at 2:04 am
You had the genesis of an brilliant idea. So I will flesh it out for you. NASA should resurrect Zager & Evans to rework the lyrics of the song “In the Year 2525″ into a CAGW theme, and produce a third “music” video visualizing all the absolute horrors of catastrophic climate change: crazy ass wildfires, floods, people running around with their hair literally on fire, soaring heat waves, sharknadoes, war with Canada (cuz all us crazies in the USA will be clambering to cross the border into their cooler climes). Each rising dramatic key change of the song, the horrors getting worse. Daryl Hannah and James Hansen can produce it.
dang html code error. Sure would be nice to have a comment preview button