At the request of the authors, this was converted from a poster displayed at the AGU Science Policy Conference, Washington, June 24-26. – Anthony
By Paul C. Knappenberger and Patrick J. Michaels
Center for the Study of Science, Cato Institute, Washington DC
INTRODUCTION
Assessing the consistency between real-world observations and climate model projections
is a challenging problem but one that is essential prior to making policy decisions which
depend largely on such projections. National and international assessments often mischaracterize the level of consistency between observations and projections.
Unfortunately, policymakers are often unaware of this situation, which leaves them
vulnerable to developing policies that are ineffective at best and dangerous at worst.
Here, we find that at the global scale, climate models are on the verge of failing to
adequately capture observed changes in the average temperature over the past 10 to 30
years—the period of the greatest human influence on the atmosphere. At the regional
scale, specifically across the United States, climate models largely fail to replicate known
precipitation changes both in sign as well as magnitude.
On the first count, the near inability of climate model projections to contain the observed
global temperature trends, it is likely that the climate model overestimation of the earth’s
equilibrium climate sensitivity—an overestimation which averages about 40 percent—is
playing a large role in the models’ gross exaggeration of the current rate of temperature
rise (which, for example, has been virtually zero during the past 16 years).
On the second count, the general inability of general circulation models to even get the sign of the observed precipitation changes across the U.S. correct, much less the magnitude, likely stems from the complexities of the climate system on spatial and temporal scales that lie far beneath those of current generation GCMs.

GLOBAL TEMPERATURE
12-year Trends:
15-year Trends:
Global Average Surface Temperatures, 2001-2012:
Global Average Surface Temperature Projections, 2001-2020:
U. S. PRECIPITATION
Observed U.S. Precipitation Change:

precipitation differences by decade (relative to the 1901-1960 average) for each region. The far right bar is for 2001-2011. (Figure source: Draft National Assessment Report)
Projected U.S. Precipitation Change

precipitation increases, and brown, decreases. Hatched areas indicate
confidence that the projected changes are large and are consistently wetter or drier. White areas indicate confidence that the changes are small. (Figure source: Draft National Assessment Report)
Number of Years Before Predicted Changes Are Greater Than Natural Variability:

standard deviation (calculated using the 1896-2011 data) from the 1991-2011 average value (calculated using McRoberts and Nielsen-Gammon, 2011). Blue indicates projected increases, red indicates projected decreases. A “n/a” indicates that no consistent projection was made, “achieved” means that the projected change has already been exceeded (that is, the change from 1901-1960 to 1991-2011 was larger than the climate model projected change from 1901-1960 to 2070-2099). Highlighted values indicate two centuries or more.
Observations, 1951 – 2005:

Models, 1951 – 2005:

influence of internal climate variability. (Source: Polson et al., 2013)
CONCLUSIONS:
It is impossible to present reliable future projections from a collection of climate
models which generally cannot simulate observed change. As a consequence, we
recommend that unless/until the collection of climate models can be demonstrated to accurately capture observed characteristics of known climate changes, policymakers should avoid basing any decisions upon projections made from them. Further, those policies which have already be established using projections from these climate models should be revisited.
Assessments which suffer from the inclusion of unreliable climate model projections include those produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the U.S. Global Climate Change Research Program (including the draft of their most recent National Climate Assessment). Policies which are based upon such assessments include those established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency pertaining to the regulation of greenhouse gas emissions under the Clean Air Act.
References:
Aldrin, M., et al., 2012. Bayesian estimation of climate sensitivity based on a
simple climate model fitted to observations of hemispheric temperature and global
ocean heat content. Environmetrics, doi: 10.1002/env.2140.
Annan, J.D., and J.C Hargreaves, 2011. On the generation and interpretation of
probabilistic estimates of climate sensitivity. Climatic Change, 104, 324-436.
Hargreaves, J.C., et al., 2012. Can the Last Glacial Maximum constrain climate
sensitivity? Geophysical Research Letters, 39, L24702, doi:
10.1029/2012GL053872
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007. Climate Change 2007: The
Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment
Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Solomon, S., et al.
(eds). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 996pp.
Lewis, N. 2013. An objective Bayesian, improved approach for applying optimal
fingerprint techniques to estimate climate sensitivity. Journal of Climate, doi:
10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00473.1.
Lindzen, R.S., and Y-S. Choi, 2011. On the observational determination of climate
sensitivity and its implications. Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Science, 47,
377-390.
Ring, M.J., et al., 2012. Causes of the global warming observed since the 19th
century. Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, 2, 401-415, doi:
10.4236/acs.2012.24035.
Schmittner, A., et al. 2011. Climate sensitivity estimated from temperature
reconstructions of the Last Glacial Maximum. Science, 334, 1385-1388, doi:
10.1126/science.1203513.
thanks William Astley
I guess without skeptics, there would be no evaluation of the performance of climate models; WUWT?
Meanwhile back here in the UK, ministers are trying to persuade us that there is no possiblitly of us running out of energy. Yep, and I also believe in the man in the moon
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/pay-firms-to-ration-electricity-use-says-national-grid-as-government-insists-the-lights-will-stay-on-despite-blackout-britain-warnings-8678263.html
Gary Pearse says:
June 28, 2013 at 9:42 am
I guess without skeptics, there would be no evaluation of the performance of climate models; WUWT?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
As I stated in my above comment CAGW has ALWAYS been political. Going all the way back to the first UN Earth Summit in 1972 where Maurice Strong talked of Global Warming and not only invited Greenpeace but paid their expenses and then told them to go home and raise he!!.
Maurice Strong is said to have originated the idea of NGOs, getting the idea from his early employment by YMCA international. Strong was a Senior Advisor to the World Bank, part of the UN Commission on Global Governance and a trustee of the Rockefeller Foundation. Although a Canadian he was a major contributor to both the Republican and Democratic parties in the USA. So much so that George W. Bush went to bat for him and saw to it that Strong became Chair at Kyoto.
Strong is also great buddies with Al Gore. During the First Earth Day in the USA, Gore held up Maurice Strong’s company, Molten Metal Tech. as an example of ‘Green Technology’ The stock prices when up, Strong cashed in and the company then bankrupted when the DOT no longer forked over more grants. (sound familiar) There was even a Congressional investigation which as usual went no where. However the scammed stockholders also sued.
Fast forward and you have Al Gore and Maurice Strong setting up the Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX) with lawyer Obama help
The idea we have two parties in the USA so both sides of a question are represented is utterly laughable. Dwayne Andreas former CEO of Archer Daniels Midland Co. is perhaps the greatest contributor to both the republican and democratic parties in history. You have to look no further than good old Dwayne and his $$$ to understand why subsidies on corn, sugar and biofuel will never go away. (And why we got the Food Modernization Act designed to destroy US family farms )
Anyone who thinks Money and Politics is not behind CAGW has not been paying attention.
“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.” ~ H. L. Mencken
With CAGW we are seeing practical politics up close and personal as we are fleeced down to the bone and sold like so much hanging meat by our ‘Representatives’
I agree entirely with Janice Moore above. The article is weak and hesitant. One more example : instead of “…… Climate Models on the verge of failure” it should read “Climate models fail signally” or some such positive assertion. In sum, the article strikes one as weak and limp-wristed.
Gail Combs says:
June 28, 2013 at 5:09 am
“As others have pointed out we are wining the scientific battle but losing the political war. This is why.”
There is no political war. All parties support what gives the state more power.
““The argument that the two parties should represent opposed ideals and policies, one, perhaps, of the Right and the other of the Left, is a foolish idea acceptable only to the doctrinaire and academic thinkers.
Instead, the two parties should be almost identical, so the the American people can ‘throw the rascals out’ at any election without leading to any profound or extreme shifts in policy.””
[Carrol Quigley, mentor of Bill Clinton]
http://www.newsofinterest.tv/video_pages_flash/politics/misc_neocon_globalist/caroll_quigley_trag_hope.php
In Germany, where the use of CO2AGW to further the power grab is a far more accepted tool due to the panicky nature of the German, all parties are Green parties.
The process cannot be reversed by a political fight; but by a collapse.
I defer to a Donald Rumsfeld quote here as I believe it is prescient of the state of the models and climate analysis in general –
IMO Climate analysis is full of ‘unknown unknowns’ and I believe we are so far from knowing as currently we do not know what tools are required to find these unknowns.
tckev (June 28, 2013 at 5:29 pm) suggested:
“we do not know what tools are required to find these unknowns”
Tuned aggregates illustrate the way. Someone with the right background, natural symbolic talent, and sufficient time on their hands will easily reorganize those illustrations into a formal algebraic proof …but of course that’s just unnecessary cultural pomp — the pictures convey the story thoroughly to graphically literate communication receivers with a firm handle on aggregation criteria & thermal wind.
Follow-up (to June 29, 2013 at 5:39 pm) …
Lots of attention to temperatures in the climate discussion, but with insufficient attention to temperature gradients & coupled flows.
Along comes a 15-year-old to shine a simple light (video length = 1 min 37 sec) :
http://judithcurry.com/2013/06/29/an-energy-model-for-the-future-from-the-12th-century/#comment-338643
The probability density functions (PDFs) in climate models are spatiotemporally biased (egregiously so) due to grossly insufficient temperature gradient diagnostics.
Wind-driven ocean welling (up & down) is externally governed.
There are layers of potentially-mesmerizing spatiotemporally-chaotic changing gear-ratios in the climate system, but paradoxical blindness to the whole can be shed by stepping back from the hypnotically-intoxicating details of the coupled network of shifting known & unknown gear-ratios far enough to see holistically (via universal tachometer) the common drive shaft.
This isn’t some mysterious emergent property. It’s simple external governance.
Models work in Australia, well, so the experts say!
@ur momisugly tckev says June 28, 2013 at 5:29 pm
Rumsfeld’s analysis is simply three parts of Boston Square Chart. The fourth quarter missed out from his assessment is “Unknown Knowns” that is:- The things that we used to known but have now forgotten about.