Policy Implications of Climate Models on the Verge of Failure

At the request of the authors, this was converted from a poster displayed at the AGU Science Policy Conference, Washington, June 24-26. – Anthony

By Paul C. Knappenberger and Patrick J. Michaels

Center for the Study of Science, Cato Institute, Washington DC

INTRODUCTION

Assessing the consistency between real-world observations and climate model projections

is a challenging problem but one that is essential prior to making policy decisions which

depend largely on such projections. National and international assessments often mischaracterize the level of consistency between observations and projections.

Unfortunately, policymakers are often unaware of this situation, which leaves them

vulnerable to developing policies that are ineffective at best and dangerous at worst.

Here, we find that at the global scale, climate models are on the verge of failing to

adequately capture observed changes in the average temperature over the past 10 to 30

years—the period of the greatest human influence on the atmosphere. At the regional

scale, specifically across the United States, climate models largely fail to replicate known

precipitation changes both in sign as well as magnitude.

On the first count, the near inability of climate model projections to contain the observed

global temperature trends, it is likely that the climate model overestimation of the earth’s

equilibrium climate sensitivity—an overestimation which averages about 40 percent—is

playing a large role in the models’ gross exaggeration of the current rate of temperature

rise (which, for example, has been virtually zero during the past 16 years).

On the second count, the general inability of general circulation models to even get the sign of the observed precipitation changes across the U.S. correct, much less the magnitude, likely stems from the complexities of the climate system on spatial and temporal scales that lie far beneath those of current generation GCMs.

image
Climate sensitivity estimates from new research published since 2010 (colored, compared with the range given in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) (gray) and the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5; black). The arrows indicate the 5 to 95% confidence bounds for each estimate along with the best estimate (median of each probability density function; or the mean of multiple estimates; colored vertical line). Ring et al. (2012) present four estimates of the climate sensitivity and the red box encompasses those estimates. The right-hand side of the IPCC AR4 range is dotted to indicate that the IPCC does not actually state the value for the upper 95% confidence bound of their estimate and the left-hand arrow only extends to the 10% lower bound as the 5% lower bound is not given. The light grey vertical bar is the mean of the 14 best estimates from the new findings. The mean climate sensitivity (3.4°C) of the climate models used in the IPCC AR5 is 13 percent greater than the IPCC’s “best estimate” of 3.0°C and 70% greater than the mean of recent estimates (2.0°C).

GLOBAL TEMPERATURE

image

12-year Trends:

image

15-year Trends:

image

Global Average Surface Temperatures, 2001-2012:

image

Global Average Surface Temperature Projections, 2001-2020:

image

U. S. PRECIPITATION

Observed U.S. Precipitation Change:

image
The colors on the map show annual total precipitation changes (percent) for 1991-2011 compared to the 1901-1960 average, and show wetter conditions in most areas. The bars on the graphs show average
precipitation differences by decade (relative to the 1901-1960 average) for each region. The far right bar is for 2001-2011. (Figure source: Draft National Assessment Report)

Projected U.S. Precipitation Change

image
Projected percent change in seasonal precipitation for 2070-2099 (compared to the period 1901-1960) under an emissions scenario that assumes continued increases in emissions (A2). Teal indicates
precipitation increases, and brown, decreases. Hatched areas indicate
confidence that the projected changes are large and are consistently wetter or drier. White areas indicate confidence that the changes are small. (Figure source: Draft National Assessment Report)

Number of Years Before Predicted Changes Are Greater Than Natural Variability:

image
TABLE: Years until projected change (in map on left) exceeds one
standard deviation (calculated using the 1896-2011 data) from the 1991-2011 average value (calculated using McRoberts and Nielsen-Gammon, 2011). Blue indicates projected increases, red indicates projected decreases. A “n/a” indicates that no consistent projection was made, “achieved” means that the projected change has already been exceeded (that is, the change from 1901-1960 to 1991-2011 was larger than the climate model projected change from 1901-1960 to 2070-2099). Highlighted values indicate two centuries or more.

Observations, 1951 – 2005:

image
Percentage change in precipitation per decade for 1951-2005 for DJF, MAM, JJA and SON. Hatched grid-boxes show where the sign of the change is consistent across all observation datasets with data available for that grid-box. (Source: Polson, D., et al., 2013. Causes of Robust Seasonal Land Precipitation Changes. Journal of Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00474.1, in press.)

Models, 1951 – 2005:

image
Percentage change in precipitation per decade for the ALL forced multimodel mean for 1951- 2005 for DJF, MAM, JJA and SON. Hatched gridboxes show where the sign of the change is consistent across all four observation datasets and the multi-model mean. Note the smaller scale of change patterns as multi-model mean changes show a much reduced
influence of internal climate variability. (Source: Polson et al., 2013)

CONCLUSIONS:

It is impossible to present reliable future projections from a collection of climate

models which generally cannot simulate observed change. As a consequence, we

recommend that unless/until the collection of climate models can be demonstrated to accurately capture observed characteristics of known climate changes, policymakers should avoid basing any decisions upon projections made from them. Further, those policies which have already be established using projections from these climate models should be revisited.

Assessments which suffer from the inclusion of unreliable climate model projections include those produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the U.S. Global Climate Change Research Program (including the draft of their most recent National Climate Assessment). Policies which are based upon such assessments include those established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency pertaining to the regulation of greenhouse gas emissions under the Clean Air Act.

References:

Aldrin, M., et al., 2012. Bayesian estimation of climate sensitivity based on a

simple climate model fitted to observations of hemispheric temperature and global

ocean heat content. Environmetrics, doi: 10.1002/env.2140.

Annan, J.D., and J.C Hargreaves, 2011. On the generation and interpretation of

probabilistic estimates of climate sensitivity. Climatic Change, 104, 324-436.

Hargreaves, J.C., et al., 2012. Can the Last Glacial Maximum constrain climate

sensitivity? Geophysical Research Letters, 39, L24702, doi:

10.1029/2012GL053872

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007. Climate Change 2007: The

Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment

Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Solomon, S., et al.

(eds). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 996pp.

Lewis, N. 2013. An objective Bayesian, improved approach for applying optimal

fingerprint techniques to estimate climate sensitivity. Journal of Climate, doi:

10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00473.1.

Lindzen, R.S., and Y-S. Choi, 2011. On the observational determination of climate

sensitivity and its implications. Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Science, 47,

377-390.

Ring, M.J., et al., 2012. Causes of the global warming observed since the 19th

century. Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, 2, 401-415, doi:

10.4236/acs.2012.24035.

Schmittner, A., et al. 2011. Climate sensitivity estimated from temperature

reconstructions of the Last Glacial Maximum. Science, 334, 1385-1388, doi:

10.1126/science.1203513.

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June 28, 2013 9:41 am

thanks William Astley

June 28, 2013 9:42 am

I guess without skeptics, there would be no evaluation of the performance of climate models; WUWT?

Sam the First
June 28, 2013 10:07 am

Meanwhile back here in the UK, ministers are trying to persuade us that there is no possiblitly of us running out of energy. Yep, and I also believe in the man in the moon
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/pay-firms-to-ration-electricity-use-says-national-grid-as-government-insists-the-lights-will-stay-on-despite-blackout-britain-warnings-8678263.html

Gail Combs
June 28, 2013 10:25 am

Gary Pearse says:
June 28, 2013 at 9:42 am
I guess without skeptics, there would be no evaluation of the performance of climate models; WUWT?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
As I stated in my above comment CAGW has ALWAYS been political. Going all the way back to the first UN Earth Summit in 1972 where Maurice Strong talked of Global Warming and not only invited Greenpeace but paid their expenses and then told them to go home and raise he!!.
Maurice Strong is said to have originated the idea of NGOs, getting the idea from his early employment by YMCA international. Strong was a Senior Advisor to the World Bank, part of the UN Commission on Global Governance and a trustee of the Rockefeller Foundation. Although a Canadian he was a major contributor to both the Republican and Democratic parties in the USA. So much so that George W. Bush went to bat for him and saw to it that Strong became Chair at Kyoto.

Elaine Dewar again:
Strong blurted out that he’d almost been shut out of the Earth Summit by people at the State Department. They had been overruled by the White House because George Bush knew him. He said that he’d donated some $100,000 to the Democrats and a slightly lesser amount to the Republicans in 1988. (The Republicans didn’t confirm.)
I had been absolutely astonished….
So Strong gave political contributions (of dubious legality) to both parties; George Bush, now a friend, intervened to help him stay in charge of the Rio conference; he was thereby enabled to set a deep green agenda there; and Bush took a political hit in an election year….. link

Strong is also great buddies with Al Gore. During the First Earth Day in the USA, Gore held up Maurice Strong’s company, Molten Metal Tech. as an example of ‘Green Technology’ The stock prices when up, Strong cashed in and the company then bankrupted when the DOT no longer forked over more grants. (sound familiar) There was even a Congressional investigation which as usual went no where. However the scammed stockholders also sued.
Fast forward and you have Al Gore and Maurice Strong setting up the Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX) with lawyer Obama help

The charity was the Joyce Foundation on whose board of directors Obama served and which gave nearly $1.1 million in two separate grants that were “instrumental in developing and launching the privately-owned Chicago Climate Exchange, which now calls itself “North America’s only cap and trade system for all six greenhouse gases, with global affiliates and projects worldwide. link

The idea we have two parties in the USA so both sides of a question are represented is utterly laughable. Dwayne Andreas former CEO of Archer Daniels Midland Co. is perhaps the greatest contributor to both the republican and democratic parties in history. You have to look no further than good old Dwayne and his $$$ to understand why subsidies on corn, sugar and biofuel will never go away. (And why we got the Food Modernization Act designed to destroy US family farms )

….For all ADM’s size, the question now is not whether the government can survive without ADM but whether ADM can survive without the government. Three subsidies that the company relies on are now being targeted by watchdogs ranging from Ralph Nader to the libertarian Cato Institute.
The first subsidy is the Agriculture Department’s corn-price support program. Despite ADM’s close association with corn, this is the least important subsidy to the company. In the short run, ADM might actually benefit if this program is cut back since it might reduce the price the company pays for raw corn. But over time, the lack of a government regulation could lead to wild price fluctuations that would make long-term planning difficult for the company.
Of more benefit to ADM is the Agriculture Department’s sugar program. The program runs like a mini-OPEC: setting prices, limiting production, and forcing Americans to spend $1.4 billion per year more for sugar, according to the General Accounting Office. The irony is that, aside from a small subsidiary in Metairie, La., ADM has no interest in sugar. Its concern is to keep sugar prices high to prevent Coke and all the other ADM customers that replaced cane sugar with corn sweeteners from switching back. “The sugar program acts as an umbrella for them,” says Tom Hammer, president of the Sweetener Users Association. “It protects them from economic competition.”
The third subsidy that ADM depends on is the 54-cent-per-gallon tax credit the federal government allows to refiners of the corn-derived ethanol used in auto fuel. For this subsidy, the federal government pays $3.5 billion over five years. Since ADM makes 60 percent of all the ethanol in the country, the government is essentially contributing $2.1 billion to ADM’s bottom line. No other subsidy in the federal government’s box of goodies is so concentrated in the hands of a single company.
Robert Shapiro, author of a corporate welfare report for the Progressive Policy Institute, describes ADM’s federally supported journey this way: “ADM begins by buying the corn at subsidized prices. Then it uses the corn to make corn sweeteners, which are subsidized by the sugar program. Then it uses the remainder for the big subsidy, which is ethanol.”
The grease–or perhaps oleo–that helps keep these kinds of programs going is the money Andreas, his family, his company, and his company’s subsidiaries provide politicians who have influence over agricultural policy. During the 1992 election, Andreas gave more than $1.4 million in “soft money” (which goes to party organizations rather than individual candidates, and is exempt from limits) and $345,650 more in contributions to congressional and senatorial candidates, using multiple donors in his family and his companies. In the nonpresidential 1994 election, the company and its people gave $656,768 in soft money and another $224,170 in contributions to individual candidates. More recently, Speaker Newt Gingrich’s GOPAC received at least $70,000 from Andreas. (Gingrich has released the names of individual donors, but not yet of corporate ones.) “These guys are state-of-the-art,” says Fred Wertheimer, the longtime Common Cause president who recently stepped down. “They play this game to the hilt.”…. link

Anyone who thinks Money and Politics is not behind CAGW has not been paying attention.
“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.” ~ H. L. Mencken
With CAGW we are seeing practical politics up close and personal as we are fleeced down to the bone and sold like so much hanging meat by our ‘Representatives’

mpainter
June 28, 2013 10:41 am

I agree entirely with Janice Moore above. The article is weak and hesitant. One more example : instead of “…… Climate Models on the verge of failure” it should read “Climate models fail signally” or some such positive assertion. In sum, the article strikes one as weak and limp-wristed.

DirkH
June 28, 2013 12:09 pm

Gail Combs says:
June 28, 2013 at 5:09 am
“As others have pointed out we are wining the scientific battle but losing the political war. This is why.”
There is no political war. All parties support what gives the state more power.
““The argument that the two parties should represent opposed ideals and policies, one, perhaps, of the Right and the other of the Left, is a foolish idea acceptable only to the doctrinaire and academic thinkers.
Instead, the two parties should be almost identical, so the the American people can ‘throw the rascals out’ at any election without leading to any profound or extreme shifts in policy.””
[Carrol Quigley, mentor of Bill Clinton]
http://www.newsofinterest.tv/video_pages_flash/politics/misc_neocon_globalist/caroll_quigley_trag_hope.php
In Germany, where the use of CO2AGW to further the power grab is a far more accepted tool due to the panicky nature of the German, all parties are Green parties.
The process cannot be reversed by a political fight; but by a collapse.

tckev
June 28, 2013 5:29 pm

I defer to a Donald Rumsfeld quote here as I believe it is prescient of the state of the models and climate analysis in general –

“…because as we know, there are known knowns;
there are things we know we know.
We also know there are known unknowns;
that is to say we know there are some things we do not know.
But there are also unknown unknowns- the ones we don’t know we don’t know.”

IMO Climate analysis is full of ‘unknown unknowns’ and I believe we are so far from knowing as currently we do not know what tools are required to find these unknowns.

Paul Vaughan
June 29, 2013 5:39 pm

tckev (June 28, 2013 at 5:29 pm) suggested:
“we do not know what tools are required to find these unknowns”

Tuned aggregates illustrate the way. Someone with the right background, natural symbolic talent, and sufficient time on their hands will easily reorganize those illustrations into a formal algebraic proof …but of course that’s just unnecessary cultural pomp — the pictures convey the story thoroughly to graphically literate communication receivers with a firm handle on aggregation criteria & thermal wind.

Paul Vaughan
June 29, 2013 7:54 pm

Follow-up (to June 29, 2013 at 5:39 pm) …
Lots of attention to temperatures in the climate discussion, but with insufficient attention to temperature gradients & coupled flows.
Along comes a 15-year-old to shine a simple light (video length = 1 min 37 sec) :
http://judithcurry.com/2013/06/29/an-energy-model-for-the-future-from-the-12th-century/#comment-338643
The probability density functions (PDFs) in climate models are spatiotemporally biased (egregiously so) due to grossly insufficient temperature gradient diagnostics.
Wind-driven ocean welling (up & down) is externally governed.
There are layers of potentially-mesmerizing spatiotemporally-chaotic changing gear-ratios in the climate system, but paradoxical blindness to the whole can be shed by stepping back from the hypnotically-intoxicating details of the coupled network of shifting known & unknown gear-ratios far enough to see holistically (via universal tachometer) the common drive shaft.
This isn’t some mysterious emergent property. It’s simple external governance.

Lil Fella from OZ
June 30, 2013 1:22 am

Models work in Australia, well, so the experts say!

Philip Mulholland
June 30, 2013 5:12 am

tckev says June 28, 2013 at 5:29 pm
Rumsfeld’s analysis is simply three parts of Boston Square Chart. The fourth quarter missed out from his assessment is “Unknown Knowns” that is:- The things that we used to known but have now forgotten about.