A graphical review of 14.5 years disappointing UK weather
Guest essay by Neil Catto
A meeting today (18th March 2013) took place at the UK Met Office HQ in Exeter. See the report here: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2013/meeting-unusual-seasons
It was arranged to include the best climatologists and meteorologists to gain better understanding of the ‘disappointing UK weather over recent years’.
Now, that the AGW debate with regard to the relationship between CO2 and temperature has been shown to be insignificant, I can only imagine the next course of action. Listening to Roger harbinger of doom on BBC Radio 4 this morning; weird weather, extremes this and that…blah blah!
I thought I would have a look and see how unusual (oops! disappointing) it has been for the last 14.5 years at a southern UK location.
Fig 1 Average daily (24hrs) pressure Well that’s not very worrying, almost a straight linear trend. 
Fig 2 Daily rainfall duration (any hour of 24 reporting precipitation) Well that’s not very worrying either, a very small decline in rainfall duration. It appears wet every day, it isn’t of course, it’s only the large amount of information (5353 days) makes it look that way on these compacted graphs.
Fig 3 Daily (24hrs) Rainfall volume As with rainfall duration, there is a very small linear decline. There are certainly LESS number of high daily amounts in the last 8 years (2004-2013) than the previous 6 years.
Fig 4 Average daily (24hrs) relative humidity Getting bored with the flat line trends yet? How boringly normal the weather is!
Fig 5 Daily (24 hrs) maximum hourly wind speeds It is getting a little windier about 2.5mph/day, but hardly anything to worry about.
Fig 6 Daily (24 hrs) maximum temperatures Slightly COOLER, oh dear there goes the CO2 driving temperature rise theory!
Fig 7 Daily (24 Hrs) minimum temperatures Yet another boring straight line trend, shaking in your boots yet?
Fig 8 Daily (24hrs) average temperatures Slightly COOLER, so it’s lower maximum temperatures driving the average down! And still CO2 levels continue to rise.
Fig 9 this is my weather ‘feel’ index This index is how the weather makes us feel. On a scale of 0-60; 0-6.9 (feel bad), tired, lethargic, miserable and despondent: >7.0 (feel good) full of energy, bright, lively and dynamic. As ‘disappointing’ is an emotion and this index is a measure of emotion, it shows the weather has been making us feel a little worse.
There has been less hours of sunlight.
I know the comments have been a bit cynical and light hearted but honestly where is the gloom, the doom, the despondency and catastrophe in 14.5 years of perfectly normal very stable weather.
On a last note, I think we can all agree the Earth has been, at stages in its past history, covered or mostly covered in glacial ice. Most people will agree that global temperatures have been much higher than today, based on paleo-geology and archaeology. Well I suggest, in very simplistic terms, the difference between the two extremes of cold and hotter, is natural variation. Is climate change real? – isn’t the change between the wide divergence of natural variation, stating the obvious.
Related articles
- UK Met Office convenes meeting to make up excuses for lack of global warming (junkscience.com)
- Meeting on UK’s run of unusual seasons (metofficenews.wordpress.com)
- Met Office, do I see a prediction? (tallbloke.wordpress.com)
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* they reported that the Met Office “did not know” why the weather had been unusual. *
The Met Office doesn’t know how many beans make five…..
“Summer is going to be a thing of the past”:
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/4974770/Weather-experts-predict-summer-to-be-replaced-by-showersSummer-is-going-to-be-a-thing-of-the-past-for-next-10-YEARS-weather-experts-warn.html
Stephen Wilde says:
June 19, 2013 at 1:52 am
Overall, an active sun cools the stratosphere whilst an inactive sun warms the stratosphere
Which is opposite to what is actually observed.
William Astley says:
June 19, 2013 at 3:19 am
The current once in 8000 year period of high solar magnetic activity is over, complete, concluded, fini, finished, and so on.
It never was to begin with.
This is getting way beyond a joke now! As a UK weather forecaster for the coming few days, the Met Office is OK. Beyond that, evidentially, demonstrably, they guess – and invariably guess wrong!
The reports coming out of the meeting yesterday are stunning – but can be summarised as “it could be this or could be that” – but ultimately that haven’t got a clue!
We have had the Met Office warning us for years that global warming will bring the UK droughts and BBQ summers and winters where children will no longer know what snow is – now they have the gall, the turn all that on its head! The sheer bloody cheek of it!
The only thing “disappointing” about the UK weather is that it is behaving normally – i.e. unpredictably, and not adhering to their scaremonger predictions for the implications of MMGW.
How these so-called experts have the chutzpah to make yesterday’s pronouncements without a shred of apparent embarrassment or regret.
Useless, Useless, Useless!!
This is getting way beyond a joke now! As a UK weather forecaster for the coming few days, the Met Office is OK. Beyond that, evidentially, demonstrably, they guess – and invariably guess wrong!
The reports coming out of the meeting yesterday are stunning – but can be summarised as “it could be this or could be that” – but ultimately that haven’t got a clue!
We have had the Met Office warning us for years that global warming will bring the UK droughts and BBQ summers and winters where children will no longer know what snow is – now they have the gall, the turn all that on its head! The sheer bloody cheek of it!
The only thing “disappointing” about the UK weather is that it is behaving normally – i.e. unpredictably, and not adhering to their scaremonger predictions for the implications of MMGW.
How these so-called experts have the chutzpah to make yesterday’s pronouncements without a shred of apparent embarrassment or regret.
Useless, Useless, Useless!!
The one conclusion that can be drawn is that is you model computers you know about climate but if you go out in the weather for years in challenging situations you learn nothing about it.
Farmers know about weather and climate because they see the effects of it on their crops, in their livestock and in their bank accounts.
Mountaineers know about it because to interpret it incorrectly increases your risk of dying.
Insurance companies would do well to learn about it because if they get their premiums:payout ratios wrong, they’ll go belly up pretty darn quick.
I’m failing to understand why sitting in a building modelling computers brings insight per se…..
Leif Svalgaard says:
June 19, 2013 at 3:20 am
It would be extraordinary if anyone at all would consider such nonsense.
Yes sir, you stick with the ‘flat sun’ , CO2 and geniuses from the Met office, who got every single forecast longer than 5 days wrong, from barbecue summer to our children will not know what snow looks like.
Yes sir, you follow them, could even write them letter of support, they will need some.
I will follow what is happening in the Arctic ocean, its currents and the indicators of their change, you may not think that natural events control climate, but they do not happen without reason, but again that is your choice.
For nearly 3 years I advocated cooling in the N.W. Europe, the Met Office advocated rapid warming.
Vuk 1: 0 MetOffice
See you.
vukcevic says:
June 19, 2013 at 4:09 am
For nearly 3 years I advocated cooling in the N.W. Europe, the Met Office advocated rapid warming.
Consider being right for the wrong reason.
Vuk 0:1 Reason
And the man from the met office interviewed in the Times today
==========================================================
“”” Stephen Belcher, head of the Met Office’s Hadley research centre, warned sun lovers that the “dice are loaded” for the current run of bad weather to last for another five to ten years. He said that the cycle had only just been identified and it was too early to say what impact, if any, climate change is having or exactly how long it will last.
“I am excited about this research because it is a new thing. It is not necessarily the warming of the ocean, it is the pattern of warm and cold water so it is the contrast that is important, and when that sits in the right place below the jet stream it can steer the jetstream and influence where it goes,” Professor Belcher added. “”
=============================================================
Yes he said “”cycle had only just been identified”” and “”I am excited about this research because it is a new thing.””
He’s talking about the Atlantic Multidecadal oscillation. Quick give him more research money. Many have known about this for years. My mind is boggled.
“Stephen Richards says:
June 19, 2013 at 1:49 am
John Law says:
June 19, 2013 at 1:05 am
In North Wales it’s business as usual. warm rain/ cold rain.
I believe the saying in Wales is as follows: I you can see the hills it’s going to rain, if you can’t see them it’s raining. :)”
In South Wales, by the Bristol Channel, we have our own version:
“If you can see Devon, it’s going to rain. If you can’t see Devon, it is raining.”
Hi to University Of East Anglia
Thanks for taking a note of my graphs; you are welcome again at any time.
vukcevic says:
June 19, 2013 at 4:09 am
Yes sir, you stick with the ‘flat sun’
Perhaps you are ‘forgetting’ that I predicted a much lower solar cycle and that we are about to enter a prolonged minimum. Not exactly a ‘flat’ sun, but what is sticking with the truth when it comes to hyping your own nonsense.
Leif Svalgaard says:
June 19, 2013 at 4:11 am
vukcevic says:
June 19, 2013 at 4:09 am
For nearly 3 years I advocated cooling in the N.W. Europe, the Met Office advocated rapid warming. Vuk 1: 0 MetOffice
Consider being right for the wrong reason.
Vuk 0:1 Reason
…………………………….
Far preferable even being right for the wrong reason, than being WRONG for the WRONG reason, but obviously not to you.
.
Leif seems to know as much about climate as the Met Office.
The stratosphere clearly cooled whilst the sun was active in the late 20th century and subsequently stopped cooling when the sun became less active.
It is not yet actually warming but there are reports of increasing ozone above 45km despite the quieter sun which is the opposite of expectations as conceded by Jo Haigh.
More ozone above 45km means warming above 45km and it can only be a matter of time before we see warming below 45km too.
vukcevic says:
June 19, 2013 at 4:18 am
Far preferable even being right for the wrong reason, than being WRONG for the WRONG reason
Actually not, as being right for the wrong reason makes you more likely to ‘predict’ a future event that will be wrong.
Stephen Wilde says:
June 19, 2013 at 4:21 am
It is not yet actually warming
You have finally seen the light.
Dr.S.
Perhaps you are ‘forgetting’ that I predicted a much lower solar cycle and that we are about to enter a prolonged minimum.
Big dill, so did I 10 years ago extrapolated from natural events (unlike you and the Met Office I do not do predictions)
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LFC2.htm
except that you only recently claimed NOT ‘prolonged minimum’ but very strong SC25, but then you change your mind.
My extrapolation from the astronomy data of possible prolong minimum goes back to 2003 !
How about that?
Neil, why cannot I see the very dry period of around 2 years leading up to the Apr 2012 hosepipe bans, and why cannot I see the extremely wet 6 months that followed, on your graphs?
Truly terrifying stuff Neil. The one graph you left out would show the rising trend of Met Office funding over the last decade. I’d bet that’d be another hockey stick …
Pointman
Winston Churchill says,” Americans usually get it right after they tried everything else”. Concur. Probable cause, our significant English ancestry.
vukcevic says:
June 19, 2013 at 4:31 am
except that you only recently claimed NOT ‘prolonged minimum’ but very strong SC25, but then you change your mind.
Not at all. More examples of your ‘forgetfulness’.
Extrapolations are not valid predictions.
This excellent blog article in the Daily Telegraph sums up the current state of knowledge very concisely:
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/100222487/when-it-comes-to-climate-change-we-have-to-trust-our-scientists-because-they-know-lots-of-big-scary-words/
‘First, I asked Stephen Belcher, the head of the Met Office Hadley Centre, whether the recent extended winter was related to global warming. Shaking his famous “ghost stick”, and fingering his trademark necklace of sharks’ teeth and mammoth bones, the loin-clothed Belcher blew smoke into a conch, and replied,
“Here come de heap big warmy. Bigtime warmy warmy. Is big big hot. Plenty big warm burny hot. Hot! Hot hot! But now not hot. Not hot now. De hot come go, come go. Now Is Coldy Coldy. Is ice. Hot den cold. Frreeeezy ice til hot again. Den de rain. It faaaalllll. Make pasty.”’
Why Stephen Belcher, head of the Met Office’s Hadley research centre stated the AMO is “new” is beyond me!
We can only hope and pray that this will lead to more Media scrutiny and ultimately more questions being asked when the Meto gets forecasts wrong
STILL some of them are on about the ‘fast-melting Arctic sea ice…’
Do none of them take the trouble to look at the graphs on the Arctic Sea Ice page linked over there ¬ in the right-hand column..? Or is it a case of: ‘Yes, yes, I’m sure they’re very accurate but we like to make stuff up…’..?